holleman67 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Sometimes paying more than retail price for a set that is retired or pretty much retired is fine. Yes, the GE is all but labeled retired. How much does one expect this set to increase over retail price during the first 3 years of retirement? Everyone will have a different answer. I'll post an example with my own sample #s. Many would say that a good return on an exclusive might be 50% during year 1, 25% compounded during year 2, and 15% On top of everything, you need to remember seller fees. If the buy-in for a GE is already 50% over retail (poster mentioned $240), I might think twice about buying it from an investment perspective. Now if one speculated the GE's annual ROI to be 100%, 50%, and 25%, then I would be more inclined to pickup the set. Like stated previously, there are other sets that can be had for a possible greater financial gain. I want to make a nice amount of money after fees especially when shipping a bigger set (it's a pain, hassle, etc...) My own opinion, I would spend the $240 elsewhere. While a nice set, the GE doesn't have the short retail life appeal of the TH to help it propel past the Fire Brigade since that set was referenced by the poster. Additionally, many weren't caught off guard by the sudden unavailability of the GE like the TH and FB. I definitely agree on this, I think money would be better spent at buying th's above retail vs ge above retail. Not that I'm saying buying above retail is a great idea but it has its applications. I bought 12 rovers in July at $50 a piece and that buy has turned out to be pretty solid so far. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Sometimes paying more than retail price for a set that is retired or pretty much retired is fine. Yes, the GE is all but labeled retired. How much does one expect this set to increase over retail price during the first 3 years of retirement? Everyone will have a different answer. I'll post an example with my own sample #s. Many would say that a good return on an exclusive might be 50% during year 1, 25% compounded during year 2, and 15% On top of everything, you need to remember seller fees. If the buy-in for a GE is already 50% over retail (poster mentioned $240), I might think twice about buying it from an investment perspective. Now if one speculated the GE's annual ROI to be 100%, 50%, and 25%, then I would be more inclined to pickup the set. Like stated previously, there are other sets that can be had for a possible greater financial gain. I want to make a nice amount of money after fees especially when shipping a bigger set (it's a pain, hassle, etc...) My own opinion, I would spend the $240 elsewhere. While a nice set, the GE doesn't have the short retail life appeal of the TH to help it propel past the Fire Brigade since that set was referenced by the poster. Additionally, many weren't caught off guard by the sudden unavailability of the GE like the TH and FB. I definitely agree on this, I think money would be better spent at buying th's above retail vs ge above retail. Not that I'm saying buying above retail is a great idea but it has its applications. I bought 12 rovers in July at $50 a piece and that buy has turned out to be pretty solid so far. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cladner Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GE is my personal most hoarded set - i have 20 (21 counting the one i built) and after seeing the GE is the most hoarded set overall and likely purchased at msrp, it is pretty hard to see any point to buying over msrp except to build. its not like there are 10 of these selling every day - more like 1 or 2 per day on ebay and probably similar numbers on amazon with some days with no sales. so say there are somewhere like 6000 sets hoarded - just a guess for the point of discussion - if there are 4 total selling on ebay and amazon every day x 365 days a year = 1460 new ge's sold a year - so it will take 4 years for that amount to sell. most investors won't want to wait that long and will get out sooner than later which will also depress the appreciation curve. so you are going to be waiting a long time before the price gets to where you will be making anything more than like 10 or 20 dollars for your time and risk if you bought it over msrp or making accepting 10% profit. there are so many other non-hoarded $149+ sets out there that have EOL in their not to distant future that will perform better than a GE purchased well over msrp. the boat has sailed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantomas007 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GE is my personal most hoarded set - i have 20 (21 counting the one i built) and after seeing the GE is the most hoarded set overall and likely purchased at msrp, it is pretty hard to see any point to buying over msrp except to build. its not like there are 10 of these selling every day - more like 1 or 2 per day on ebay and probably similar numbers on amazon with some days with no sales. so say there are somewhere like 6000 sets hoarded - just a guess for the point of discussion - if there are 4 total selling on ebay and amazon every day x 365 days a year = 1460 new ge's sold a year - so it will take 4 years for that amount to sell. most investors won't want to wait that long and will get out sooner than later which will also depress the appreciation curve. so you are going to be waiting a long time before the price gets to where you will be making anything more than like 10 or 20 dollars for your time and risk if you bought it over msrp or making accepting 10% profit. there are so many other non-hoarded $149+ sets out there that have EOL in their not to distant future that will perform better than a GE purchased well over msrp. the boat has sailed. This was my reason why I didnt buy many FB - I thought that there is so many resellers and that this set was selling a lot of time (5 years), so many people had time to buy it. Then I was very suprised how the prices of FB were rising after EOL - even the EOL was expected and this set was hoarded. You are right that GE is hoarded. But despite this fact GE will be selling well in the future - this is the most popular serie for AFOLs. There is also problem to find better deals - everything interesting is hoarded (modulars, VW, TB). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) Some great points in the thread, and good advice. My point was that GE is $150 below the price of every other retired modular, and given the unique market and circumstances with the modulars (AFOL appeal, desire to own complete sets, etc.), that GE is well positioned for some nice escalation. I do think there's a bit of herd mentality around the modulars. FB and TH are seeing some amazing price escalation right now, and personally, I think GE is going to follow this sometime this year. If/when it does, $240 for a GE is going to look like a bargain. Heck, I wish I had punched the button on 3 more THs at $299 just 3 weeks ago. Had them in my Amazon cart, and bailed in favor of 2x Tumblers and 2x TBs (with the reasoning that "I'd rather pay MSRP than not..." Whoops.). I do think the modulars are special in this way, and that any of them are going to see FB, TH, and yes, eventually GC type of escalation. It's inevitable with growing demand and supply frozen to stock already made. BTW, looking at # of eBay sales is a tricky art. Personally, I think Amazon is moving 10x to 100x the amount of stock as eBay. My evidence is anecdotal, though. Wait a few years. A complete set of the modulars, especially if new in box, will be worth a literal fortune. I've already seen complete, sealed sets of all the modulars go for over $5000 (there was an eBay *auction* sale at $7k recently, though it included 3x of MS, so not quite apple-to-apple). Heck, *built* sets, with no boxes, are clearing $3500 now. My guess: in a few years, sets with mostly new kits (and perhaps the first 3 built, but with good boxes and instructions), will be $10k items. There's nothing magic about paying MSRP (or below). Sure, that's a great deal if you can find it, but there's some favorable aspects to paying above MSRP (but not crazy-prices), too. For evidence, just look at TH pricing last month. Any of us would gladly pay $299 for TH today, and it was available at that price only weeks ago. Among the advantages of buying sets slightly above MSRP, you're buying sets that have gone "sold out" (and hopefully, soon to be "retired"). If some select sets are possibly headed to 3-5x above MSRP, paying 30-50% above MSRP when the market looks favorable isn't a huge risk. YMMV. Thanks again to all with the good thoughts here. I enjoy reading everyone's opinion. Edited January 18, 2015 by diablo2112 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold-Arrow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Price has been ticking up on Amazon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcandre Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Price has been ticking up on Amazon. Been keeping an eye on it too. Very impressive so far. I do believe it's outpaced the FB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GE has the advantage of being a corner building and was designed to be expanded with 2 or more sets. Its parts are also quite expensive. I expect it to catch up to FB in short order. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immenstaad Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 hi guys, i Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 hi guys, i 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isocleas Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 hi guys, i 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If you want one to build now is the time to buy as it will only get more expensive. Otherwise as has been said, move on to the next one. If you are going to buy one for yourself, I would buy a used one. It would be cheaper than buying one brand new. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immenstaad Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hi guys, thanx for answering. i try to get a used one on ebay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 (edited) Right now how much would you pay (max) for a new GE, as an investment ? (in Edited February 24, 2015 by biniou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Depends on how many you have already. Normally I would tell you to concentrate on the next best thing. Personally... I would pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follows Closely Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just look at ebay and subtract 15%. That is a fair offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Right now how much would you pay (max) for a new GE, as an investment ? (in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As prices seem to start developing better for GE than for FB (which has a headstart of 1 year) - what was all the talk about that GE was so much hoarded and that "under-hoarded" FB should do better because it retired unexpectedly. Maybe in the end the looks of a set are not much less important than how rare it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everyone has $$$ in there eyes when a set retires because of the initial price bump. It's a slow climb after the initial little spark. One prime example is the 41999 if anyone cares to go through that thread you will see that most everyone thought that this would be the biggest thing in the history of lego sets. That's not been the case, as if yet anyway and probably wont ever be. IMO of you already have your desired number of the GE then just move along to your next set. By the way the GE is generally considered the worst by many enthusiasts as far as inside detail goes. It is my favorite modular though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree, quota is king for these decisions. The only other caveat would be if you wanted to eliminate the seller from the market but if they only have 1 and they are your friend that doesn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way the GE is generally considered the worst by many enthusiasts as far as inside detail goes. It is my favorite modular though. I guess one should not overestimate potential buyers' knowledge. Just like the thing with all those stickers on EEE, which 90% of investors know about but maybe less than 1% of all potential buyers - GE imo just looks better on the box than FB for example. So even if every "expert" dislikes GE because of some internal issues, most buyers will judge the book by its cover right away. And not only here but probably in every case of a set. That is also why I've always had a problem with the argument of "a great building experience" of a set. How many buyers will know about that 5 years after EOL? How many will even care if they knew? And how could one ever advertise a great building experience when selling? I'd say: Nobody gives a pooped snack about buidling experience and not about interior detail or any flimsy joint or unstable Tumbler build or anything like that. In a nutshell: What is IN the box, counts significantly less than what is ON the box IMO. Just my opinion. Most people just don't catch up on a set (or anything) they are about to buy. If they want it, they just go buy it. Remorse comes afterwards at the earliest. Just my experience. Never underestimate the apathy and ignorance of people. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I guess one should not overestimate potential buyers' knowledge. Just like the thing with all those stickers on EEE, which 90% of investors know about but maybe less than 1% of all potential buyers - GE imo just looks better on the box than FB for example. So even if every "expert" dislikes GE because of some internal issues, most buyers will judge the book by its cover right away. And not only here but probably in every case of a set. That is also why I've always had a problem with the argument of "a great building experience" of a set. How many buyers will know about that 5 years after EOL? How many will even care if they knew? And how could one ever advertise a great building experience when selling? I'd say: Nobody gives a pooped snack about buidling experience and not about interior detail or any flimsy joint or unstable Tumbler build or anything like that. In a nutshell: What is IN the box, counts significantly less than what is ON the box IMO. Just my opinion. Most people just don't catch up on a set (or anything) they are about to buy. If they want it, they just go buy it. Remorse comes afterwards at the earliest. Just my experience. Never underestimate the apathy and ignorance of people. That is a good point IMO. And more so (in terms of what is ON the box): If I wanted a yellow Technic excavator, I don't want a cheaper blue crawler crane (with great building experience and stuff). These guys don't care what reviews say and if they can save money with the other set and some coupons, they want a particular set! (Examples can also be made with e.***. FB and PS and thousands of other pairs...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 (edited) Thanks for your opinions guys. Overall it's what I thought, so it will depend on my mood. Edited February 24, 2015 by biniou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold-Arrow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FBA is 299.99...about time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Q_7.thumb.JPG.17417b2ecfcb0263d968611d7411a782.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.