stephen_rockefeller Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 If stock would dry up before month end I think we all would be ok.We will be ok no matter when the stock dries up ;) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie77 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 i doubt there is much difference between GE and FB in terms of being "massively hoarded sets". of course i don't have the internal data but looking at the listings for sale which i think accounts for only about 70% of all sets that are kept for investment purpose. { based on the listings below.. i would say if (GE, TH and HH) are just to not be available anymore @ retail; i would say HH-> TH -> GE in terms of ROI. based on the numbers i would expect GE to dwindle a lot faster compared to FB; TH and HH. so long term i.e. over 5 years i would assume that GE will have higher value vs TH and HH. { but i would put a ceiling of $500 on all of these sets } GE: 174 listings @ amazon ( i don't know how to find total sets that would be in those 174 listings) 64 lots @ bricklink with total 200 sets 90+ listings @ ebay. compared to FB (after almost 10 months of retirement) 111 listings @ amazon 60 lots @ bricklink with total 207 sets 65+ listings @ ebay TH 109 listings @ amazon 16 lots @ bricklink with total 24 sets 48+ listings @ ebay HH 74 listings @ amazon 29 lots @ bricklink with total 61 sets 73 listings @ ebay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 We will be ok no matter when the stock dries up Oh I agree, don't get me wrong. I'm just thinking of stock dries up now more will get unloaded during Christmas inflating the prices. Well at least theoretically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyebrow40 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Nice MOC from eyebrow40!!! Amazing Thank's! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I am Niko Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 (edited) i doubt there is much difference between GE and FB in terms of being "massively hoarded sets". of course i don't have the internal data but looking at the listings for sale which i think accounts for only about 70% of all sets that are kept for investment purpose. { based on the listings below.. i would say if (GE, TH and HH) are just to not be available anymore @ retail; i would say HH-> TH -> GE in terms of ROI. based on the numbers i would expect GE to dwindle a lot faster compared to FB; TH and HH. so long term i.e. over 5 years i would assume that GE will have higher value vs TH and HH. { but i would put a ceiling of $500 on all of these sets } GE: 174 listings @ amazon ( i don't know how to find total sets that would be in those 174 listings) 64 lots @ bricklink with total 200 sets 90+ listings @ ebay. compared to FB (after almost 10 months of retirement) 111 listings @ amazon 60 lots @ bricklink with total 207 sets 65+ listings @ ebay TH 109 listings @ amazon 16 lots @ bricklink with total 24 sets 48+ listings @ ebay HH 74 listings @ amazon 29 lots @ bricklink with total 61 sets 73 listings @ ebay I don't think you can draw many conclusions from those numbers. GE is only pulling about $30-40 in profit after fees (assuming one paid retail for it). So not a lot of people are going to be listing GEs right now. The GE listing numbers will most likely jump drastically once the price makes it worth listing. Edited November 1, 2014 by TJ488 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The GE is by far the most stockpiled set. ...and the most beautiful for the people here looking at the modulars poll. I still have doubts about the theory of an "ugly" set rising significantly more in value just because it is more rare than the nice one. Just can't imagine folks (in 10 years) saying: "Man, I dont have GE or TH and I like GE much more but I gotta have that ugly TH so bad because it is more rare than GE." My guess would be that both rise about the same percentage wise. Maybe TH does better at the start but for longtime holders it will not make that big a difference in the end if the bought GE or TH. Maybe I have another view on this as I plan to hold (some of) my stuff for x decades, not years. In this case, ok, TH might haven risen 10 % more in 5 years. But this goes for the US only as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neosphinx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 ...and the most beautiful for the people here looking at the modulars poll. I still have doubts about the theory of an "ugly" set rising significantly more in value just because it is more rare than the nice one. Just can't imagine folks (in 10 years) saying: "Man, I dont have GE or TH and I like GE much more but I gotta have that ugly TH so bad because it is more rare than GE." My guess would be that both rise about the same percentage wise. Maybe TH does better at the start but for longtime holders it will not make that big a difference in the end if the bought GE or TH. Maybe I have another view on this as I plan to hold (some of) my stuff for x decades, not years. In this case, ok, TH might haven risen 10 % more in 5 years. But this goes for the US only as well. TH is not ugly. I think you underestimate the variables going for it and against GE. Wouldn't advice seeing lego as an x decade investment, but that's just me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wouldn't advice seeing lego as an x decade investment, but that's just me. because?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neosphinx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 because?... Stagnating profit and space it takes vs newer sets? Declining wealth of old superpowers so more costs for shipping to Chinese? TLC performance in x decades? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 because?... Most of the growth of sets happens within the first three years, and there is small growth after that. I think most sets stop growing in value after five years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Most of the growth of sets happens within the first three years, and there is small growth after that. I think most sets stop growing in value after five years. Neosphinx and you are right, but for me personally LEGO investing is not primarily for making profit but for creating an alternative store of value besides money. However I (still) don't know for sure how exactly this should be taken into account for my selling/holding behaviour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
labfreak7 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 ...and the most beautiful for the people here looking at the modulars poll. I still have doubts about the theory of an "ugly" set rising significantly more in value just because it is more rare than the nice one. Just can't imagine folks (in 10 years) saying: "Man, I dont have GE or TH and I like GE much more but I gotta have that ugly TH so bad because it is more rare than GE." My guess would be that both rise about the same percentage wise. Maybe TH does better at the start but for longtime holders it will not make that big a difference in the end if the bought GE or TH. Maybe I have another view on this as I plan to hold (some of) my stuff for x decades, not years. In this case, ok, TH might haven risen 10 % more in 5 years. But this goes for the US only as well. I think that Target's availability albeit at an inflated price is also suppressing the value of the GE. Once that stock dries up, we will see the prices rise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piece_Out_Studios Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 (I apologize if this has already been discussed on a different forum post. If so, please direct me to it.) I bought one set of 10211 Grand Emporium back in November last year I believe, or sometime within the past year when they had double VIP points. The main question is this: should I sell it within November/December during the LEGO eBay peak, or should I wait a little while longer for better returns? Now to give you some more information, if you want it: I am looking to sell this within the next year. I bought a Death Star the same time I got GE and if I don't sell GE soon, I'm not going to have a good place to put it. My space for storing LEGO is very limited. So if I want the best value is now good or wait longer? Based on the sales of 10197 Fire Brigade, it seems to be following a similar trend in sales. When is the best time to sell GE? November or December? Early or middle of the month? Bidding or Buy It Now? November seemed good because it gives me as the seller time to send it and not worry about the package not getting there in time. But will people pay more in December to get their hands on a set? Will less people buy in December? Will there likely be more sellers in December thus more to compete with on the market? If you can help me out with any/all of these questions, it would be most appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cladner Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 (I apologize if this has already been discussed on a different forum post. If so, please direct me to it.) I bought one set of 10211 Grand Emporium back in November last year I believe, or sometime within the past year when they had double VIP points. The main question is this: should I sell it within November/December during the LEGO eBay peak, or should I wait a little while longer for better returns? Now to give you some more information, if you want it: I am looking to sell this within the next year. I bought a Death Star the same time I got GE and if I don't sell GE soon, I'm not going to have a good place to put it. My space for storing LEGO is very limited. So if I want the best value is now good or wait longer? Based on the sales of 10197 Fire Brigade, it seems to be following a similar trend in sales. When is the best time to sell GE? November or December? Early or middle of the month? Bidding or Buy It Now? November seemed good because it gives me as the seller time to send it and not worry about the package not getting there in time. But will people pay more in December to get their hands on a set? Will less people buy in December? Will there likely be more sellers in December thus more to compete with on the market? If you can help me out with any/all of these questions, it would be most appreciated. you are still competing with target who has them in stock for $224. if you bought it at a price where you can make enough to clear fees, shipping insurance etc, maybe $224 is enough for you. personally i'm not selling until 3x MSRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 you are still competing with target who has them in stock for $224. if you bought it at a price where you can make enough to clear fees, shipping insurance etc, maybe $224 is enough for you. personally i'm not selling until 3x MSRP. You nailed it. As long as it's available from a major retailer, people will buy there first. Why is The Tumbler getting more? Because the one place most people think of getting them - LEGO Shop at Home - they are out of stock. So people will flood to the secondary market. Target gives people a major retailer to get this at, even above RRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami Bomb Squad Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) Target is OOS However Amazon is in the Low $200s Edited November 3, 2014 by Miami Bomb Squad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Cool then all the retailers are now.sold out. Let us hope it stays that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Cool then all the retailers are now.sold out. Let us hope it stays that way. Like Arnold says in T3 "She'll be back" Probably a few more rogue appearances but I hope it is over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robfamily Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Would this Christmas season be a good time to sell these or do I really need to wait until next year after hopeful retirement? Another question, how much are you expecting/hoping to get for this set when you sell? I am new to investing and my husband is getting worried that we will lose money. I would like to sell ASAP to show him that we can make money, but I don't want to do it too soon and not make near as much as I could. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Would this Christmas season be a good time to sell these or do I really need to wait until next year after hopeful retirement? Another question, how much are you expecting/hoping to get for this set when you sell? I am new to investing and my husband is getting worried that we will lose money. I would like to sell ASAP to show him that we can make money, but I don't want to do it too soon and noat make near as much as I could.Assuming you bought it at MSRP you are already in the green. Don't the sell too early though and leave money on the table. You don't have to sell to prove you can make money in lego. Show him historical data which between here and ebay there is plenty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Would this Christmas season be a good time to sell these or do I really need to wait until next year after hopeful retirement? Another question, how much are you expecting/hoping to get for this set when you sell? I am new to investing and my husband is getting worried that we will lose money. I would like to sell ASAP to show him that we can make money, but I don't want to do it too soon and not make near as much as I could. Tell your husband he is a negative Nancy and to trust the process. A quick look at the predecessors to the emporium will show him everything well be ok. If you are going to sell something to make a point then a craigslist lot could serve that purpose if you are lucky enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locutus001 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Nothing new here but for the sake of posting it: Just received my order: 36S4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flemdog33 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I would sell something for a little profit and hand him the cash and send him to the bar! My wife isn't worried about the profit as I have shown her now that it works but please go to the thread about spouse/kids and read through it. It's not only hilarious but is dedicated to this sorta thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denosya Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) I bought 4x Grand Emporium at -15% this week. I thought I would return 2 of those, but it seems the set is out of stock everywhere right now. As I have 30 days to return the sets, I have listed them on ebay at MSRP +20% (200 Edited November 3, 2014 by denosya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ISO8T0 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I have two slightly damaged GEs (one has crease and one has box image tear on front) that I am planning on returning to WM. I'm offering them up to BPers (for purchase) prior to doing so. I will ship and the cost to you will be my cost + shipping. Ideally I would prefer these go to BPers that have been unable to acquire one yet. If you are interested PM me. (Mods: I've already passed this post by Ed) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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