stephen_rockefeller Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 14 minutes ago, biniou said: The MF Zombies 9465 (year 2012) was a $35 set, I would be more that glad to see the sea cow reaching x5 MSRP ($1250) as quickly. ^^ Not ever.....but I'm sure you already know that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 15 listings on Eu ebay, no sales since Tuesday. ToO has around 40, Red5 and DS are in the 50´s with sales every day and Tumber has already got a scary 75 listings and the most on auction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 26 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said: Not ever.....but I'm sure you already know that. I'm ecstatic when one of my sets reaches x2 MSRP within 2 years. ^^ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcarin Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I am surprised kinda, that this set went up so much. Not sure why though. Its nothing close to classic real Pirate ships, and it has no useful figures for further MOCs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostDad Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 17 hours ago, exciter1 said: Not an attractive display piece? It's my favorite vehicle from the OT. Mine too actually. The Sandcrawler is not... attractive, but it's big, rugged, and acts as a tracked RV for Jawas, who are awesome in their own right. What bugged me about Sea Cow is just... no one would actually build a ship that looked remotely like that. There was a historical period when sailing ships with steam engines and paddlewheels were employed in European navies, but they were never short, stubby things with giant towering sterns. Sea Cow is an intentionally goofy design and I can't imagine displaying it, no matter how big it is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landphieran Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 21 minutes ago, GhostDad said: Mine too actually. The Sandcrawler is not... attractive, but it's big, rugged, and acts as a tracked RV for Jawas, who are awesome in their own right. What bugged me about Sea Cow is just... no one would actually build a ship that looked remotely like that. There was a historical period when sailing ships with steam engines and paddlewheels were employed in European navies, but they were never short, stubby things with giant towering sterns. Sea Cow is an intentionally goofy design and I can't imagine displaying it, no matter how big it is. People love Legos. Lego lovers are shameless about what they display. People love boats. Big boats.This is a BIGGG boat. You should probably buy the next big boat. Its currently at 500 FBA... I'm personally astonished how few sellers there are. This will be interesting to watch. I will not be buying the next big boat. The secrete has sailed? Ship is out of the harbor? I'm sure someone can add a better pun/play on words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 2 hours ago, biniou said: The MF Zombies 9465 (year 2012) was a $35 set, I would be more that glad to see the sea cow reaching x5 MSRP ($1250) as quickly even if it means to stagnate at this price. ^^ The zombies set was used only as a comparison for what happens when a set begins to plateau as Ed mentioned could happen sooner than later (it's an unknown). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The MF Zombies 9465 (year 2012) was a $35 set, I would be more that glad to see the sea cow reaching x5 MSRP ($1250) as quickly even if it means to stagnate at this price. ^^ The zombies set was used only as a comparison for what happens when a set begins to plateau as Ed mentioned could happen sooner than later (it's an unknown). This set has "bubble" written all over it. A mini bubble. I thought this set might be good for the market. Maybe not. It might show that investors are paying crazy prices right now so that they don't miss out on the next "it" set. I question how many of these people buying this set right now are end users? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 When I saw this set build in a legostore I thought it was impressive. I was wondering why. And came to the conclusion it is only the size that impressed me. The set itself does not impress me by a bit. So I did not buy any. Eventhough it could become a hidden gem. I accepted I might miss a good opportunity. Maybe there are investors that thought the same way. But acted differently. And now are buying the ones available just above RRP. I really do not believe there is an end-user market for it. And if there is it will be a handful steampunk fans. So later on it will be a long sit and wait for that one buyer. So my opinion is there are better options out there. Red-5 is one of them. Cause it seems that no matter how much it was hoarded it sells. And we have 9493 to back that up. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Amen. Thread may now be closed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Ed Mack said: This set has "bubble" written all over it. A mini bubble. I thought this set might be good for the market. Maybe not. It might show that investors are paying crazy prices right now so that they don't miss out on the next "it" set. I question how many of these people buying this set right now are end users? I've never been able to wrap my head around this "strategy." Even if Sea Cow increases to 3x RPP (and that's a big if), "investors" paying $400+ now get about the same ROI as those selling to them at markup from RPP. Sometimes you have to admit the proverbial ship has sailed (or steamed away from harbor) and move on to the next. It seems like more of a ego-driven investment "strategy" than logical one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree, but that strategy is part of the reason sets get a big EOL kick. In the EU the roles are reversed as it was Red5 that went up and up and is now pegged at 150% RRP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I agree, but that strategy is part of the reason sets get a big EOL kick. In the EU the roles are reversed as it was Red5 that went up and up and is now pegged at 150% RRP. Oh, I know it happens... I just wouldn't do it. There's always a new set to take my money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It´s easy to be sucked in on this forum a) be new to investing with money to invest b: read all the Tumbler hype c) read a post from emazers or others about having 50 and this set will be a winner (without knowing their buy-in) d) read another post from Ed about buying at above RRP being fine (not knowing he doesn´t sell sets) and you have the perfect storm. Meanwhile, those who had good buy-ins can flip for double buy-in and laugh at all the madness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It´s easy to be sucked in on this forum a) be new to investing with money to invest b: read all the Tumbler hype c) read a post from emazers or others about having 50 and this set will be a winner (without knowing their buy-in) d) read another post from Ed about buying at above RRP being fine (not knowing he doesn´t sell sets) and you have the perfect storm. Meanwhile, those who had good buy-ins can flip for double buy-in and laugh at all the madness. Buying a set above MSRP is a proven success. My gains are on paper, but they are still legit. Ask me how my Cafe Corner did at $600 or Grand Carousel at $500 or Eiffel Tower at $400 and so on and so forth. I have bought dozens, if not hundreds of sets above retail and most appreciated very well... Well enough to cover fees and costs and make a nice profit. The Sea Cow could be a winner at $400-$500, just like the SSD was a winner at $500-$600, but there is something about this set in general that makes me wonder if it will hit $800-$1000. Maybe. Maybe nobody bought any. I did. Maybe not enough. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanfjr Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just buy 70807 MetalBeard's Duel for a fraction of the cost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcurve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, Deanfjr said: Just buy 70807 MetalBeard's Duel for a fraction of the cost I bought them both to sell together later ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 29 minutes ago, Ed Mack said: My gains are on paper, but they are still legit. Gains are legit when the sale is successfully completed and the "green" paper is tucked away. Anything else is just theoretical gains. The amount of possible issues in a sale multiplies significantly when it gets over the $500 range which in turn affects those final true gains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 (edited) 22 minutes ago, ravenb99 said: Gains are legit when the sale is successfully completed and the "green" paper is tucked away. Anything else is just theoretical gains. The amount of possible issues in a sale multiplies significantly when it gets over the $500 range which in turn affects those final true gains I´d like to clarify that Ed´s strategy is right for him because he knows what he is doing and has been in the game long enough to have a nose for which sets can be purchased above RRP. His lack of an end game strategy (or one that we know of), however when extrapolated to horde of Noob investors a recipe for disaster. I was only giving an example of the small BP community - take it to the next level of the soccer moms and would be empresarios reading mass media articles with no caveats about stinkers that can depreciate and it is even worse. Edited January 17, 2016 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 9 minutes ago, ravenb99 said: Gains are legit when the sale is successfully completed and the "green" paper is tucked away. Anything else is just theoretical gains. The amount of possible issues in a sale multiplies significantly when it gets over the $500 range which in turn affects those final true gains Sure, I understand your point and that is a worthwhile discussion for another thread. But let's not get too carried away with what could go wrong and shipping/seller issues. The discussion was about buying sets over MSRP and if these sets are worthwhile choices. All the gains discussed on this site, for the most part, are theoretical, but people still consider them "real." 7 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I´d like to clarify that Ed´s strategy is right for him because he knows what he is doing and has been in the game long enough to have a nose for which sets can be purchased above RRP. However, extrapolate that to a Noob investor and it is a recipe for disaster. I was only giving an example of the small BP community - take it to the next level of the soccer moms and would be empresarios reading mass media articles with no caveats about stinkers that can depreciate and it is even worse. I agree with you. If you are uniformed today, that is a recipe for disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said: Sure, I understand your point and that is a worthwhile discussion for another thread. But let's not get too carried away with what could go wrong and shipping/seller issues. The discussion was about buying sets over MSRP and if these sets are worthwhile choices. All the gains discussed on this site, for the most part, are theoretical, but people still consider them "real." I understand that, I know you understand that but there are a lot of others that don't. Just mentioning it about higher dollar sets as well as a few friends and I have tracked it and the percentages are pretty eye opening especially on Amazon. I too buy sets over retail. Not much but if I feel can still make some money will do it. Bought some SSD last year at 500-600 and did well with that. Mainly just throwing 1 more jab into you not selling a set for a bazillion years as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Buying retired sets above retail price has been a proofed strategy. I have bought Black Pearls, Space Shuttles, etc. using that tactic. And I do not regret it. Prices went up. However, with the current retired sets you have to watch out. Cause they are not as scarce as the black pearls and space shuttles. I tried it with ToO. And prices seem to stick at 300 euro max. So I would make only a marginal profit if I would sell them now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landphieran Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I´d like to clarify that Ed´s strategy is right for him because he knows what he is doing and has been in the game long enough to have a nose for which sets can be purchased above RRP. His lack of an end game strategy (or one that we know of), however when extrapolated to horde of Noob investors a recipe for disaster. I was only giving an example of the small BP community - take it to the next level of the soccer moms and would be empresarios reading mass media articles with no caveats about stinkers that can depreciate and it is even worse. I understand reaching out to all levels of experience is important but can we refrain from stereotyping people? Whether soccers moms are flooding the gates or not I feel like this problem hits most investors and more so new investors in some way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It´s all about the sets and the market. Here, where Seacows are still available for RRP and below in shops, it makes no sense to pay above RRP for now and I doubt it ever will. The next Lego Movie is not exactly TFA and may bomb even more than the Ghostbusters reboot. On the other hand, a red 5 above RRP just about makes sense if you are playing the long game as there is consolidated demand for iconic and large OT sets and there will be for years to come, If there isn´t that means we might as well give up on Lego investing. Paying over RRP for a PS or PC later this year is a tougher one to call. Recent past history suggests there is going to be a long wait involved and that isn´t for everyone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 16 minutes ago, ravenb99 said: I understand that, I know you understand that but there are a lot of others that don't. Just mentioning it about higher dollar sets as well as a few friends and I have tracked it and the percentages are pretty eye opening especially on Amazon. I too buy sets over retail. Not much but if I feel can still make some money will do it. Bought some SSD last year at 500-600 and did well with that. Mainly just throwing 1 more jab into you not selling a set for a bazillion years as well. It's all about time and lack of it. Just packaging and shipping the sets to the LEGO raffle winners will be an issue. LOL. Believe me...I know what's ahead. For me it's about a "Rainy Day or College Fund." I am really screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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