Retiring Soon - open speculation

[joneyyy1981]

12 minutes ago, Shortbus311 said:

Just by looking at the history of Lego Ideas sets. 21311 Voltron was released in Aug 2018 and retired Dec 2019. 21310 OFS was released in Sept 2017 and retired Dec 2018. History tells you that an Ideas set released in Sept of one year retires in Dec of the next year.  

The only exception I can think of is Saturn V... but Central Perk is no Saturn V.

 

 

 

the only place i seen it even mentioned as going is brickmerge? not sure how accurate they are?

[gmontgomery]

Just curious as to the collective thought out there - what is the likelihood 10260-1 Downtown Diner is gone for good from Lego SAH? Currently Out of Stock and hard to find at other outlets and it is on the retirement list. I'm thinking the set will come back for the holidays, but since I don't have one, I've got a bad feeling about this...

[Sozial]

On 9/4/2020 at 11:16 PM, Shortbus311 said:

Just by looking at the history of Lego Ideas sets. 21311 Voltron was released in Aug 2018 and retired Dec 2019. 21310 OFS was released in Sept 2017 and retired Dec 2018. History tells you that an Ideas set released in Sept of one year retires in Dec of the next year.  

The only exception I can think of is Saturn V... but Central Perk is no Saturn V.

 

 

 

Do not forget 21108. 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Sozial

[Legojona]

1 hour ago, gmontgomery said:

Just curious as to the collective thought out there - what is the likelihood 10260-1 Downtown Diner is gone for good from Lego SAH? Currently Out of Stock and hard to find at other outlets and it is on the retirement list. I'm thinking the set will come back for the holidays, but since I don't have one, I've got a bad feeling about this...

It reminds me of the Brick Bank that suddenly started disappearing. I will buy some diners to be sure. I know this one is a winner as it is the one my wife wanted to build first during the COVID lockdown. Gateway set to a happy marriage of Lego building

[csingh]

On the topic of ideas sets retiring, is tree house confirmed?

Or still just speculation?

[Legojona]

5 hours ago, csingh said:

On the topic of ideas sets retiring, is tree house confirmed?

Or still just speculation?

I can only buy it at one store for the rrp, but all others are above, so I expect the supply tobe drying up. Would not be surprised if it retires. 

 

[Emvisawthatswho]

On the topic of ideas sets retiring, is tree house confirmed?
Or still just speculation?

Multiple reliable sources say it’s going. Look back a few pages you’ll see some links.

[zaphoid]

8 hours ago, gmontgomery said:

Just curious as to the collective thought out there - what is the likelihood 10260-1 Downtown Diner is gone for good from Lego SAH? Currently Out of Stock and hard to find at other outlets and it is on the retirement list. I'm thinking the set will come back for the holidays, but since I don't have one, I've got a bad feeling about this...

according to Promobricks (link on page 692) they are still printing these.

[Tedron]

On 9/4/2020 at 10:16 PM, Shortbus311 said:

Just by looking at the history of Lego Ideas sets. 21311 Voltron was released in Aug 2018 and retired Dec 2019. 21310 OFS was released in Sept 2017 and retired Dec 2018. History tells you that an Ideas set released in Sept of one year retires in Dec of the next year.  

The only exception I can think of is Saturn V... but Central Perk is no Saturn V.

 

 

 

I really hope this is the case, you cant go wrong with friends. Will always be super popular.

[nolan808]

19 minutes ago, Tedron said:

I really hope this is the case, you cant go wrong with friends. Will always be super popular.

Central Park may not be a Saturn V but it can't be far off being as popular. I doubt it goes this year.

[iahawks550]

3 minutes ago, raulaco said:

Central Park may not be a Saturn V but it can't be far off being as popular. I doubt it goes this year.

Being popular or not doesn't always factor into the decision to retire it. 

[nolan808]

10 minutes ago, iahawks550 said:

Being popular or not doesn't always factor into the decision to retire it. 

Surely it does. Popularity = Sales so surely they would keep it going a little longer. No news from reliable sources that this is going anyway. 

[Voltron]

6 hours ago, raulaco said:

Surely it does. Popularity = Sales so surely they would keep it going a little longer. No news from reliable sources that this is going anyway. 

Adventure time was around for about 2 years, highly doubt that was popular or a good seller. Sometimes lego just keeps sets on shelves when to fill a void, with the amount of sets lego are churning out nowadays, i wouldn't be surprised for more sets with 1 year shelf life. 

[Legojona]

14 hours ago, Voltron said:

Adventure time was around for about 2 years, highly doubt that was popular or a good seller. Sometimes lego just keeps sets on shelves when to fill a void, with the amount of sets lego are churning out nowadays, i wouldn't be surprised for more sets with 1 year shelf life. 

That set is still available below retail price, so I guess it was extremely unpopular. I would think Lego will early retire some ideas sets as these usually have harder to source parts so perhaps they give priority to sets they can more easily manufacture to meet demand.

[LegoWalker4]

With the rumored likely retiring sets lists out, one of the sets I am struggling with as an investment is the Star Wars 75248 Resistance A-Wing Starfighter.  The last two, 75175 and 75003, likely did well because of the somewhat exclusive minfigures, Lando Calrissian and Admiral Ackbar, as well as having three minifigures.

The latest non-UCS version has none of that and two minifigures, Lieutenant Connix and Temmin 'Snap' Wexley.  What is does have going for it is the white and dark green color scheme and black engines, not seen since the Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-Wing Starfighter set (minus the black engines).

The latest A-Wing has been on a perma sale recently at ~20% off and is quietly disappearing from most retailers.  Maybe that is a good sign.  I think I have almost convinced myself to get a few, despite vowing not to get any more Star Wars sets for investment.  Hmmmm….
 

[Phil B]

9 minutes ago, LegoWalker4 said:

With the rumored likely retiring sets lists out, one of the sets I am struggling with as an investment is the Star Wars 75248 Resistance A-Wing Starfighter.  The last two, 75175 and 75003, likely did well because of the somewhat exclusive minfigures, Lando Calrissian and Admiral Ackbar, as well as having three minifigures.

The latest non-UCS version has none of that and two minifigures, Lieutenant Connix and Temmin 'Snap' Wexley.  What is does have going for it is the white and dark green color scheme and black engines, not seen since the Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-Wing Starfighter set (minus the black engines).

The latest A-Wing has been on a perma sale recently at ~20% off and is quietly disappearing from most retailers.  Maybe that is a good sign.  I think I have almost convinced myself to get a few, despite vowing not to get any more Star Wars sets for investment.  Hmmmm….
 

As mentioned in daily deals, these are 60% off in-store at Best-Buy. Shelf tags might not reflect it, but they scan $13 at the register.

[LegoWalker4]

8 minutes ago, Phil B said:

As mentioned in daily deals, these are 60% off in-store at Best-Buy. Shelf tags might not reflect it, but they scan $13 at the register.

I wish I could find just one at the Best Buy stores where I live.   

[Achilles]

A-Wings are very popular and show up all over the place in the extended Universe.

At 30% off, I would have no problem snatching all these up.

And I am not just saying that because I look like Snap.

My only real concern is that it's popular and small, so is/was/will be available in a lot of places. Already a lot of sellers, so it may take some time to appreciate. But I'd say it's about as safe a set as possible.

[EctoG63AMG]

Hello All,

This past summer when I inquired about the likelihoods of certain sets being retired, I was referred to the list put out by Promobricks (purchased the Treehouse as soon as SAH got it). My next two priority sets are the Downtown Diner and the Vestas Wind Turbine. Both these sets have now been removed from the Promobricks 2020 retirement list for some reason as of 09/14. Is this list reliable to go by? Any ideas as to why these sets were removed? Im definitely going to buy the Diner at msrp when it becomes available, but the Vestas set Id like to score on a discount if possible (maybe Black Friday; Walmart had it on significant mark down over the summer down to around $138 if I'm correct).

Now to the other part, I know someone mentioned a few posts above mine the Star Wars Episode 9 A Wing possibly retiring, any guesses about the others in that series (none of these were mentioned on Promobricks)? Kylo Ren's Shuttle, Sith Tie Fighter, and the Sith Troopers battle pack? Ideally, Id love to pick up any of these sets up on sale, but these are hard to come by. I know people have found the shuttle on clearance at Kohls or Walmart. I don't think the Sith Fighter ever went on sale, which is probably the most overpriced of the aforementioned.

Any input is always appreciated. I am from the collector side of this hobby. Thank you and be well.

[pharmjod]

I still see the diner and vestas on the promobricks list.

[EctoG63AMG]

Thats so odd. I just went on it now and its there. I don't know if was something to do with the Google Translate (German to English) earlier when I posted, but both sets are there now.

Thank you for the reply though!

[csingh]

So is everyone confident the tree house retires this year?

Edited September 15, 2020 by csingh

[LegoSteve]

I want to be clear before I make my comment to let people know I am treading lightly before I say my peace.

 

I've observed this season that there are folks on here that need extra reassurance that a set is retiring before they purchase it. It's as if their entire business will go under if the set they bought isn't retiring. I get it, I really do. You want to make sure that the sets you are putting on the shelf are gone as quick as possible. This is a bigger priority for the newer resellers than the veterans. My question is, if you're so unsure about a specific set, why not just wait a little longer to buy? "Well LegoSteve that's because that hard to find set will probably be unavailable to purchase in a few months if it actually is retiring." Ok then, if that set will goes poof then why not just buy another set, which is probably discounted unlike that hard to find set, that is also retiring and will probably have a quicker and higher ROI in the next 12-18 month?

 

Right now I've got somewhere around 75 Hogwarts Express. Yeah I expected them to retire this year but the probably wont. Instead of lamenting over that I know things will be more than ok because I'll buy at least double that with my Q4 profits this year.

 

Again, I know it's a little different for brand new investors because you need to turn that over quick but you shouldn't let these questions live in your head and take away any enjoyment your having as a reseller.  Things will work out in the end.

 

One last thing for the new resellers, why are you buying the sets that you are buying? Is it because others have told you what sets you should be buying or is it because you did your due diligence and decided on specific sets? I ask because there are sets I see new resellers buy that I wouldn't touch if this was my first year buying.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

50 minutes ago, csingh said:

So is everyone confident the tree house retires this year?

Yes!

.

.

.

No!

..Maybe

If you want for personal build definitely get it when you can (can't go wrong and won't regret it)...sure there may be a black friday deal for an additional 20-30% off like past years...but 2020 has not been normal.

If you're cashing in your 401K early to resell LEGO...then full RRP is not the set you want to risk on (see LEGOSteve above) 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Also note that the retirement lists are european based...that means the US retirement will follow...later in most cases by a few months or more.  That means US scarcity will start later.  Probably won't mean much for most...but if you're maxing out credit cards (don't do this) then the extra few months may feel like a margin call.