75054 - AT-AT

[fossilrock]

47 minutes ago, brickshiftmama said:

Hmmmm, do you have a different internet than me?

Prices on Amazon are still in the 190's, number of sellers seems to have dropped.

as for eBay prices are sitting around $165-170 and number of sellers has dropped.

I've been paying attention.  It's gone up 20 some resellers in the last few days.  Last week, this dropped below 50 resellers.  Now prices have mostly hovered in the upper 170's to lower 180s today.  A few of us thought these were going into the 200's last week, but thats not happening.  Too many have gone out and said "wow, I can find 5 of these" and have grabbed them and listed them.  Multiply that by probably 400 to 500 people world wide, and you can see where its time to get a little pessimistic on this.   When the horde starts going into a buying frenzy, they do tend to suppress the numbers quite a bit and will keep it suppressed for a while.  I've seen this happen over and over and over on this site.  Numerous times.  Anytime I see 5 posters start to buy 10 to 20 of these in a single day… it's maybe time to reconsider how good things might go.

[Ciglione]

14 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I've been paying attention.  It's gone up 20 some resellers in the last few days.  Last week, this dropped below 50 resellers.  Now prices have mostly hovered in the upper 170's to lower 180s today.  A few of us thought these were going into the 200's last week, but thats not happening.  Too many have gone out and said "wow, I can find 5 of these" and have grabbed them and listed them.  Multiply that by probably 400 to 500 people world wide, and you can see where its time to get a little pessimistic on this.   When the horde starts going into a buying frenzy, they do tend to suppress the numbers quite a bit and will keep it suppressed for a while.  I've seen this happen over and over and over on this site.  Numerous times.  Anytime I see 5 posters start to buy 10 to 20 of these in a single day… it's maybe time to reconsider how good things might go.

That is why I never understood this mentallity of buying so many.

[Mathew]

The Walmart by me still has six or seven on the shelves.  Anything over $100 sends a lot of parents into sticker shock.  Also consider that the AT-AT is going to appeal to AFOL more than your average 8-10 year old boy.  It's fairly monochromatic looking at it on the shelf.

[labfreak7]

I've been paying attention.  It's gone up 20 some resellers in the last few days.  Last week, this dropped below 50 resellers.  Now prices have mostly hovered in the upper 170's to lower 180s today.  A few of us thought these were going into the 200's last week, but thats not happening.  Too many have gone out and said "wow, I can find 5 of these" and have grabbed them and listed them.  Multiply that by probably 400 to 500 people world wide, and you can see where its time to get a little pessimistic on this.   When the horde starts going into a buying frenzy, they do tend to suppress the numbers quite a bit and will keep it suppressed for a while.  I've seen this happen over and over and over on this site.  Numerous times.  Anytime I see 5 posters start to buy 10 to 20 of these in a single day… it's maybe time to reconsider how good things might go.

That is why I never understood this mentallity of buying so many.

One word...... Greed

[Ciglione]

7 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

One word...... Greed

And... Greed is good.

[biking_tiger]

So... who gets to decide who doesn't get a piece of the pie? 

Because all this talk of "the horde ruining things" sounds like some resellers shouldn't be allowed to try and make money.

Instead of lamenting what others are doing, I try to focus on what I can control. I'd say AT-AT is a big success so far--but this isn't the kind of set I'd plan to lock away in my closet for years. 

Edited December 8, 2015 by biking_tiger

[cladner]

 

30 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

 Anytime I see 5 posters start to buy 10 to 20 of these in a single day… it's maybe time to reconsider how good things might go.

anytime you see 1 post, you can be sure there are 20 additional bp'ers who only read the daily deals thread, never post and are doing exactly the same thing.  anytime you think you are the only one onto something, there's 8 people thinking the same thought as you right now.  

AT-AT and ISD are classic medium term holds.   the franchise reboot will bring new fans into the fold and re-awaken the child in many adults,  iconic ships  will be very easy to unload for decent profit with a 1-2 year hold.  

this has nothing to do with hoarding or greed.  how can you build up stock of something to sell in a year or two without buying it??  the goal is to buy something as close to  EOL as possible.  We are at EOL for AT-AT.  It is time to buy it if you want to sell it.

I don't see how this is any different from all the other times stuff goes EOL.

 

[zskid00]

10 minutes ago, cladner said:

I don't see how this is any different from all the other times stuff goes EOL.

 

Exactly right and this is not a new trend.  It's been going on for years.  Though the reselling community is probably a little bigger than it used to be.

[brickshiftmama]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

If the ebay price is around 165 that has dropped from yesterday

The highest I saw it yesterday was around 170.

I guess I just have lower expectations but basic economics says as price increases supply increases and demand decreases until an equilibrium is reached.  The market dictates the price until supply decreases or demand increases, then prices will rise again.

There is no use blaming "the horde" as they are simply responding to market forces.

[Guest]

17 hours ago, brickshiftmama said:

The highest I saw it yesterday was around 170.

I guess I just have lower expectations but basic economics says as price increases supply increases and demand decreases until an equilibrium is reached.  The market dictates the price until supply decreases or demand increases, then prices will rise again.

There is no use blaming "the horde" as they are simply responding to market forces.

I sold one for more than 170 on the day I was talking about so I know it was higher. And yes I will blame the horde. I will always blame get rich quick chasers who bottom feed and crash the market.

[justapilgrim]

I see it as a good thing. Almost every one that is sold is opened, and took one less in the wild to make it happen. I feel like the horde is doing everyone a favor by cleaning out remaining stock. Let everyone get their $180 now so those with patience can sell for $250-$300 later

[skanks]

19 hours ago, Crustybeaver said:

Can't comment on the US market but here in the UK it's selling for £125-140, not bad for a set that could have been purchased £83 only a week ago

Try £50 @ Asda :-)

[chubz]

36 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

I sold one for more than 170 on the day I was talking about so I know it was higher. And yes I will blame the horde. I will always blame get rich quick chasers who bottom feed and crash the market.

let's be honest people if you have sold lego for a profit your a RESELLER.. just cause someone has more lego to sell he is a horder or a bottom feeder?? there is no difference between you and this bottom feeder...i would kill you in a business debate as you don't understand the market if you think "rich quick chasers" is messing thing up for you

[Battrax]

30 minutes ago, skanks said:

Try £50 @ Asda :-)

Bah.

Show-off!

:-p

[Crustybeaver]

Can't comment on the US market but here in the UK it's selling for £125-140, not bad for a set that could have been purchased £83 only a week ago

Try £50 @ Asda :-)

Yeah thanks for reminding me about that deal I missed out on

[GiliusThunderhead]

2 hours ago, Crustybeaver said:

Yeah thanks for reminding me about that deal I missed out on

Whats almost as bad is i got JL to price match @ £55 (with Argos I think).  They said they'd match up to 10 - how many did i want....I just went with 1 for the personal collection.  Ohhh how short sighted i was  

[mudcatsfan]

21 hours ago, Ciglione said:

That is why I never understood this mentallity of buying so many.

 

21 hours ago, biking_tiger said:

So... who gets to decide who doesn't get a piece of the pie? 

Because all this talk of "the horde ruining things" sounds like some resellers shouldn't be allowed to try and make money.

Instead of lamenting what others are doing, I try to focus on what I can control. I'd say AT-AT is a big success so far--but this isn't the kind of set I'd plan to lock away in my closet for years. 

 

21 hours ago, zskid00 said:

Exactly right and this is not a new trend.  It's been going on for years.  Though the reselling community is probably a little bigger than it used to be.

 

22 hours ago, fossilrock said:

 it's maybe time to reconsider how good things might go.

 

I think the concept of the horde buying "too many" and extending lifecycles is unlikely in the first place and completely not applicable when you're talking about NON exclusives like the AT-AT. The regular star wars line is following a very natural path and all the Vader boxed items were due to retire this winter. This should be no surprise to anyone.

The surprise is that for the most part the sets SEEM to be disappearing before they got a chance to languish on the shelves through clearance. 

That is certainly due to Europe marking them Retired. Otherwise these would have been on walmart shelves for 89.99 for the next month or two.

The other surprise is the price the AT-AT is reaching. for the most part it's a 99-119 set in USD. So was the Jabba's Palace, so was the Sail Barge. Neither of them had this kind of price explosion up to 180 almost immediately.

I wonder if that says more about the fact that the ATAT is more iconic, more popular, whatever. OR if it's due to the fact that the Jabba sets DID hit clearance prices and the ATAT (for the most part) did not.

 

 

[dcdfan]

13 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

 

 

 

 

I think the concept of the horde buying "too many" and extending lifecycles is unlikely in the first place and completely not applicable when you're talking about NON exclusives like the AT-AT. The regular star wars line is following a very natural path and all the Vader boxed items were due to retire this winter. This should be no surprise to anyone.

The surprise is that for the most part the sets SEEM to be disappearing before they got a chance to languish on the shelves through clearance. 

That is certainly due to Europe marking them Retired. Otherwise these would have been on walmart shelves for 89.99 for the next month or two.

The other surprise is the price the AT-AT is reaching. for the most part it's a 99-119 set in USD. So was the Jabba's Palace, so was the Sail Barge. Neither of them had this kind of price explosion up to 180 almost immediately.

I wonder if that says more about the fact that the ATAT is more iconic, more popular, whatever. OR if it's due to the fact that the Jabba sets DID hit clearance prices and the ATAT (for the most part) did not.

 

 

IMO, the AT-AT is just way more iconic...

[mudcatsfan]

58 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

IMO, the AT-AT is just way more iconic...

I tend to agree. I think if you showed somebody an Atat  and you showed somebody a sail barge they would know the at-at was from Star Wars if not actually the name of it.

I didn't used to think that an item being available at clearance would impact a set that much, but I wonder if that was the case with the sail barge. I know I bought it at $49. And that immediately devalues the set in my eyes. The end user who wants the set a year from now won't ever know it was $49 so it shouldn't impact them and their perception of the sets value.

It will be very interesting to me if the Star Destroyer surpasses the AtAts value considering its a bigger set with more figures.

[RTRC]

What started this ISD vs AT-AT debate? ISD can still be brought at Toys r Us and picked up at some Walmart stores for $115. ISD is still on life support atm. Wait for the plug to be pulled and then compare them.

[cladner]

37 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

I tend to agree. I think if you showed somebody an Atat  and you showed somebody a sail barge they would know the at-at was from Star Wars if not actually the name of it.

I didn't used to think that an item being available at clearance would impact a set that much, but I wonder if that was the case with the sail barge. I know I bought it at $49. And that immediately devalues the set in my eyes. The end user who wants the set a year from now won't ever know it was $49 so it shouldn't impact them and their perception of the sets value.

It will be very interesting to me if the Star Destroyer surpasses the AtAts value considering its a bigger set with more figures.

i have a feeling At-AT will do better than star destroyer in the short run but both are ca$h money. Star Wars and LEGO rule all this time of year.   ATAT is closer to minifigure scale than the star destroyer but ISD has Vader so ISD may win in the end.  i'm up to 12 now each.  i think both will do very well within 2 years.  i had to turn down 4 AT-AT's today for instore pickups because of popped seals.  honeyhole walmart has 6 mint ISD on the shelf earlier today.  trying to decide for some more ISD or do i make a tumbler run.  leaning towards the ISD.  Star Wars demand seems insatiable at this time of year even before the reboot.  seems like 2-3x MSRP for both sets is doable.

[legoray01]

2 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

 

 

 

 

I think the concept of the horde buying "too many" and extending lifecycles is unlikely in the first place and completely not applicable when you're talking about NON exclusives like the AT-AT. The regular star wars line is following a very natural path and all the Vader boxed items were due to retire this winter. This should be no surprise to anyone.

The surprise is that for the most part the sets SEEM to be disappearing before they got a chance to languish on the shelves through clearance. 

That is certainly due to Europe marking them Retired. Otherwise these would have been on walmart shelves for 89.99 for the next month or two.

The other surprise is the price the AT-AT is reaching. for the most part it's a 99-119 set in USD. So was the Jabba's Palace, so was the Sail Barge. Neither of them had this kind of price explosion up to 180 almost immediately.

I wonder if that says more about the fact that the ATAT is more iconic, more popular, whatever. OR if it's due to the fact that the Jabba sets DID hit clearance prices and the ATAT (for the most part) did not.

 

 

I think it was the surprise that it just went so quickly from readily available to gone.  That is why the boost.  ISD still sits out there.  The AT-At was just basically gone!!!  Sail Barge was still readily available at retail.  I bought a sail barge at a Barnes and Noble around Black Friday and was able to get a discount on it as well. 

[thoroakenfelder]

7 minutes ago, legoray01 said:

I think it was the surprise that it just went so quickly from readily available to gone.  That is why the boost.  ISD still sits out there.  The AT-At was just basically gone!!!  Sail Barge was still readily available at retail.  I bought a sail barge at a Barnes and Noble around Black Friday and was able to get a discount on it as well. 

I just saw one at b&n for $199.95 the other day. Walked away quickly. Also 2 jerk 14 starfighters for $75.95

[legoray01]

21 minutes ago, thoroakenfelder said:

I just saw one at b&n for $199.95 the other day. Walked away quickly. Also 2 jerk 14 starfighters for $75.95

I picked up the Jek 14 at the B&N sale because I got 10% members discount and it was part of the balck Friday sale where it was buy one get one at 50% off.  A lot of folks thought all lego was excluded but there were a lot of sets that were part of the sale if you di research.

[labfreak7]

Pancake at at for 96$ at target? Should I bite?