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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Guest TabbyBoy

Damn! the Mini is still in there as I was hoping that would make a sneaky disappearance without notice. I've been buying one monthly during good promos since they came out until this year.

Go on LEGO, why not bring out another 4 Creator Expert vehicles and really bloat your portfolio! How are us poor resellers able to keep up? While you're at it, bring out abother 50 boring Star Wars sets and rehash all the CITY/Friends sets.... again!

2 hours ago, Haay said:

And Temple of Airjitzu, and GBHQ, and Simpsons House + Kwik E-Mart are also still there.

Also no upcoming retirement for UCS Slave-1 and the UCS TIE Fighter.

I think the SImpsons House will be the longest running set to date. I can't understand as most of the UK hates them!

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13 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Damn! the Mini is still in there as I was hoping that would make a sneaky disappearance without notice. I've been buying one monthly during good promos since they came out until this year.

 

I also noticed that all Creator Expert boxes now show the same Expert logo, including the boxes of the Mini Cooper and the VW T1 Camper, as well as the Palace Cinema:

LEGO-Creator-Expert-Logo-2.png.0b98580acc419b75667042d31b1a3baa.png

Edited by Haay
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Yes, no surprises beside Ecto-1 availability...

Nevertheless what I'm currently noticing, the sales are very slow at the moment for retired sets what is exactly the opposite fro last year. The reason is that people have spent all their money for the discounts at November/December...

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Guest TabbyBoy
22 minutes ago, Legojona said:

Simspons the longest running? Let's not forget the Tower Bridge :)

Tongue-in-cheek as this montrosity seems to hang on forever - seal code 03S7 in John Lewis!. It's a disgusting set that nobody wants! I've never seen it resell for RRP unlikel the T1 & TB.

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Guest TabbyBoy
11 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Yes, no surprises beside Ecto-1 availability...

Nevertheless what I'm currently noticing, the sales are very slow at the moment for retired sets what is exactly the opposite fro last year. The reason is that people have spent all their money for the discounts at November/December...

I don't think so. I reckon it's the massive over-production of sets recently that's caused the glut. I wouldn't be surprised to see some ***7 seal codes on Ecto1 soon and also on Doctor Who. Also, the "Retiring Soon" tag could disappear if sales are still good.

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You won't see any ***7 codes for sets with "Retiring Soon" tag - otherwise LEGO would be completely implausible to the buyers and they would be not really happy.

Regarding over-production - could be, but SOH was not over-produced but is slow seller at the moment anyway... 

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48 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

 

I think the SImpsons House will be the longest running set to date. I can't understand as most of the UK hates them!

Simpsons is one of the most popular shows in the history of television. In 2011 PBS UK named it the number one US show with the greatest influence on the UK https://goo.gl/rN6LYS . Perhaps it's hated in your circle but it's very popular in the UK and worldwide. 

I love the Simpsons and have to defend them :) The house and kwikemart are both great sets. 

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1 minute ago, marcandre said:

Simpsons is one of the most popular shows in the history of television. In 2011 PBS UK named it the number one US show with the greatest influence on the UK https://goo.gl/rN6LYS . Perhaps it's hated in your circle but it's very popular in the UK and worldwide. 

I love the Simpsons and have to defend them :) The house and kwikemart are both great sets. 

I tend to agree with this. People don't hate the Simpsons, most people aren't interested in the current output and haven't been for years, but at the same time most people can quote early episodes verbatim and there's a Simpsons quote for most situations. It's like the idea that super heroes aren't popular in Europe, it's an over generalisation, they're popular in some areas, not so much in others..

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Guest TabbyBoy

I speak from experience as I do have a lot of friends and colleagues, none of which are Simpsons fans. I watched the first few shows until it all went to pot. I think LEGO were several years too late into this theme, like they were with Angry Birds. It's an American theme so I'd expect it to be popular in the US. Could the house be the first "modular" to fail?

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8 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Could the house be the first "modular" to fail?

I think Simpsons will get the eol 50% bump and be a slow climb after that. The show will live on forever in reruns and there will always be new fans. That's only if it retires soon. It could be the next Tower Bridge though, if that's the case forget it. 

As far as the first modular to fail as an investment? The pet shop has seen virtually no eol bump, new sets are 150-175 on ebay. Unheard of previously. GE was quick to jump to 225 and doubled after a year where it has stalled. 

What would define a failed modular? If we are making $50 a set after 18 months is that a failure? I don't think any modular will flat out fail to go over rrp but gains will be modest. 

Edited by marcandre
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Guest TabbyBoy
31 minutes ago, marcandre said:

I think Simpsons will get the eol 50% bump and be a slow climb after that. The show will live on forever in reruns and there will always be new fans. That's only if it retires soon. It could be the next Tower Bridge though, if that's the case forget it. 

As far as the first modular to fail as an investment? The pet shop has seen virtually no eol bump, new sets are 150-175 on ebay. Unheard of previously. GE was quick to jump to 225 and doubled after a year where it has stalled. 

What would define a failed modular? If we are making $50 a set after 18 months is that a failure? I don't think any modular will flat out fail to go over rrp but gains will be modest. 

I mean in the UK... I think the SH will be the first "modular" in the UK to not recover the RRP of £179.99 let alone the new RRP of £189.99 within a year of EOL. It needs to sell for £240 to cover fees, double-walled box and free postage if the current RRP is to be recovered. For those of you that do have the SH, I hope it does bump up for you.

I still believe that the Tower Bridge will do very well as it's so big, so available and so non-retiring that it could put people off buying more than one. I bought 12 a few years ago and I can afford to buy another 200 but, I won't ;-) There is NO WAY that I will pay the new, higher RRP either!

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2 hours ago, marcandre said:

Simpsons is one of the most popular shows in the history of television. In 2011 PBS UK named it the number one US show with the greatest influence on the UK https://goo.gl/rN6LYS . Perhaps it's hated in your circle but it's very popular in the UK and worldwide. 

I love the Simpsons and have to defend them :) The house and kwikemart are both great sets. 

i love the simpsons - i'm a huge fan  - i still watch new episodes.

the sets from a build perspective are awesome.

from an investment perspective, Simpsons have been terrible.  first minifigures are doing just ok but not as good as other series from that time period like TLM.  second wave of minifigures are doing awful.  under MSRP.

maybe those buying 99 cents Dimensions will be the ones to make money off simpsons.

i have a decent stash of SH and KEM but I have tempered my expectation for performance to be mediocre like Tumbler or Red5 unless they are truly unhoarded which i somehow doubt as SH hits its 3rd birthday.  If I could do it over again, I would not have gone deep.  

At the same time, the sets are paid for and i'm in no hurry to sell so we'll see what happens.

Usually the surefire bets end up losing and the sets everyone thinks will do terrible end up being winners so that bodes well for Simpsons.

 

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2 hours ago, marcandre said:

As far as the first modular to fail as an investment? The pet shop has seen virtually no eol bump, new sets are 150-175 on ebay. Unheard of previously. GE was quick to jump to 225 and doubled after a year where it has stalled. 

PS doing much better on Amazon. $228 FBA with a good sales rank. I thought it would take a year to get there but it has only taken a few weeks. Considering how cheap it was to purchase just before EOL that is a great ROI. I'm happy. Will be loading up on cheap PC in the fall for more easy money.

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18 minutes ago, cladner said:

i love the simpsons - i'm a huge fan  - i still watch new episodes.

the sets from a build perspective are awesome.

from an investment perspective, Simpsons have been terrible.  first minifigures are doing just ok but not as good as other series from that time period like TLM.  second wave of minifigures are doing awful.  under MSRP.

maybe those buying 99 cents Dimensions will be the ones to make money off simpsons.

i have a decent stash of SH and KEM but I have tempered my expectation for performance to be mediocre like Tumbler or Red5 unless they are truly unhoarded which i somehow doubt as SH hits its 3rd birthday.  If I could do it over again, I would not have gone deep.  

At the same time, the sets are paid for and i'm in no hurry to sell so we'll see what happens.

Usually the surefire bets end up losing and the sets everyone thinks will do terrible end up being winners so that bodes well for Simpsons.

 

Funny that my son doesn't call yellow minifigs "yellow people", but that's what he thinks "The Simpsons" are.

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3 hours ago, marcandre said:

I think Simpsons will get the eol 50% bump and be a slow climb after that. The show will live on forever in reruns and there will always be new fans. That's only if it retires soon. It could be the next Tower Bridge though, if that's the case forget it. 

As far as the first modular to fail as an investment? The pet shop has seen virtually no eol bump, new sets are 150-175 on ebay. Unheard of previously. GE was quick to jump to 225 and doubled after a year where it has stalled. 

What would define a failed modular? If we are making $50 a set after 18 months is that a failure? I don't think any modular will flat out fail to go over rrp but gains will be modest. 

PS selling on ebay are in the 150-175 range with shipping costs of $15-$30 costs..but with free shipping PS is selling close to $200. PS is coming along very nicely honestly.

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Guest TabbyBoy
30 minutes ago, Leopard said:

PS selling on ebay are in the 150-175 range with shipping costs of $15-$30 costs..but with free shipping PS is selling close to $200. PS is coming along very nicely honestly.

Considering I bought most of my PS's at 20% off, I can clear £30 profit now if I wanted to ;-)

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