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The Lone Ranger 2013


IrishGuy66
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Let me clarify my point though. The original question wasn't: "will I make a profit on these sets" (for which the buying price is obviously very relevant) but "should I hang to these sets longer or not"? The answer you gave was that that depended on the buying price. Bought them for less than 70: sell now, over 70: keep.

 

My point is that that is the wrong criteria. You keep them if you think they will grow beyond what they are worth now, you sell them if you think they don't (even if that means accepting a loss).

 

Let me illustrate that with an example. 

 

- Say you own 10 Stagecoaches that are now worth about $40.

- You expect them to grow just 10% in value the next year.

- You've got your eye on another set that you can now buy also for $40 which you will think will grow 50% in value.

 

Obviously in this case the better option is to unload the stagecoaches and reinvest the money you free up with those sales into that other set. In that case you get an extra 40% profit (minus 12% or so on ebay fees for the extra transactions). No matter what you originally payed for the stagecoaches.

 

Say however, that you expect them to grow a healthy 40%, while you don't think you can get better returns with another set: keep them. 

 

Actually, the original query wasn't "should I hang to [sic] these sets longer or not," but "I am curious to hear some people's thoughts on the growth potential of the new Lone Ranger series."  I answered the question in a bit of roundabout way by referring to the buy-in price for the sets.  Because I don't see a great deal of growth potential for these sets, I suggested selling certain ones if they were purchased at a price that would allow a decent profit today or holding if they were purchased at a higher price that would cause a loss today, but a slimmer profit or break-even later.  Your posts appear to be responding to the question that you think the OP asked based on the roundabout response that I gave to his original query...it's basically like a game of telephone where the original poster asked "what do you think of the growth potential of the LR sets" and, after the question was passed between a few people and arrived to you, you responded by saying "the answer to that question depends on the growth potential of the LR sets."   

 

If the OP had asked for a rational economic analysis of whether he would be better off holding the sets or selling them, then your response would be entirely appropriate, but the OP seems to understand that a 50% return on his money would be better than a 10% return, which I suspect was why he was asking where everyone thought the LR sets would fall on the growth spectrum.

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Yeah maybe, but for now a western movie is so much little ensured to be a success that it's necessary to add some aliens or a rapper with gadget and robots...

 

 

 

 

Wild wild west

 

Speaking of Wild Wild West - if you have 20 minutes to kill watch this hilarious video of Kevin Smith (Clerks etc.) talking about his failed attempt at a Superman reboot.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgYhLIThTvk

 

Audio is NSFW so headphones may be required.

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Actually, the original query wasn't "should I hang to [sic] these sets longer or not," but "I am curious to hear some people's thoughts on the growth potential of the new Lone Ranger series."  I answered the question in a bit of roundabout way by referring to the buy-in price for the sets.  Because I don't see a great deal of growth potential for these sets, I suggested selling certain ones if they were purchased at a price that would allow a decent profit today or holding if they were purchased at a higher price that would cause a loss today, but a slimmer profit or break-even later.  Your posts appear to be responding to the question that you think the OP asked based on the roundabout response that I gave to his original query...it's basically like a game of telephone where the original poster asked "what do you think of the growth potential of the LR sets" and, after the question was passed between a few people and arrived to you, you responded by saying "the answer to that question depends on the growth potential of the LR sets."   

 

If the OP had asked for a rational economic analysis of whether he would be better off holding the sets or selling them, then your response would be entirely appropriate, but the OP seems to understand that a 50% return on his money would be better than a 10% return, which I suspect was why he was asking where everyone thought the LR sets would fall on the growth spectrum.

 

 

Fair enough. How I read his post was that he was thinking what to do with these sets but rather then both of us discussing what our friend Ciglione might and might not have meant let's just let him read our insights and determine what to do with them. I have no desire to make this into an arguement and if I came across as unfriendly I apologize. I just didn't really agree with your reasoning.

 

Happy building.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I approached the movie with an open mind. I figured the critics unfairly killed the movie. And I really wanted to see the constitution train.

 

I had to turn it off after 40 minutes. What an horrible experience.

Yep, it is that bad, it`s really a shame no matter how you look at it. 

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I approached the movie with an open mind. I figured the critics unfairly killed the movie. And I really wanted to see the constitution train.

 

I had to turn it off after 40 minutes. What an horrible experience.

You have to see the last action scene on the trains, at the end of the movie. It's really fun (and this is the only part in the movie IMHO).

 

It starts at about 1'57" up to 2'09"

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  • 3 weeks later...

You have to see the last action scene on the trains, at the end of the movie. It's really fun (and this is the only part in the movie IMHO).

 

It starts at about 1'57" up to 2'09"

 

Probably the stupidest part of the movie... but my son loved it. 

The intriguing thing about this is the theme CAGR sitting at 15.82% and which sets have risen (at least for the US) from their retail price and last 12 months:

 

79106 Cavalry Builder +65.90% (last 12 months + 146.00%)

79107 Commanche Camp +10.36% (last 12 months + 28.93%)

79108 Stagecoach Escape +30.51% (last 12 months +39.64%)

79109 Colby City Showdown - 12.68% (last 12 months +1.11%)

79110 Silver Mine Shootout -24.09% (last 12 months +0.34%)

79111 Constitution Train Chase - 0.57% (last 12 months +23.32%)

Some very decent returns in that lot assuming people bought at the cheaper prices 12 months ago.. 

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They seem to all be fine, even good, except the Silver mine and Colby city to a lesser extent. But the mine has retailer availability  $mu$ almost everywhere. And will probably not sell out at Walmart and TRU until 2016 at this rate.  Probably my worst buy of the last 5 years, and I have bought some real junk in my day.

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Probably the stupidest part of the movie... but my son loved it. 

The intriguing thing about this is the theme CAGR sitting at 15.82% and which sets have risen (at least for the US) from their retail price and last 12 months:

 

79106 Cavalry Builder +65.90% (last 12 months + 146.00%)

79107 Commanche Camp +10.36% (last 12 months + 28.93%)

79108 Stagecoach Escape +30.51% (last 12 months +39.64%)

79109 Colby City Showdown - 12.68% (last 12 months +1.11%)

79110 Silver Mine Shootout -24.09% (last 12 months +0.34%)

79111 Constitution Train Chase - 0.57% (last 12 months +23.32%)

Some very decent returns in that lot assuming people bought at the cheaper prices 12 months ago.. 

 

Yeah, I was wondering about this - and really should have acted on it and mentioned it - if what we would get out of this theme would actually be people liking the sets for what they were without caring about Lone ranger.

 

Calvary builder I did buy a lot of and sold all of them for $25 early this year. I still have plenty of stage coaches.

 

The train is a bust. I thought it might be and I bought 2 just to have. But not surprised. I actually really like the set. Just not a "Train Winner".

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Yeah, I was wondering about this - and really should have acted on it and mentioned it - if what we would get out of this theme would actually be people liking the sets for what they were without caring about Lone ranger.

 

Calvary builder I did buy a lot of and sold all of them for $25 early this year. I still have plenty of stage coaches.

 

The train is a bust. I thought it might be and I bought 2 just to have. But not surprised. I actually really like the set. Just not a "Train Winner".

could it be that the train was still available from Target? may be it will improve in sometime? for god's sake its a train how can we go wrong on that? :D

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The intriguing thing about this is the theme CAGR sitting at 15.82% and which sets have risen (at least for the US) from their retail price and last 12 months:

79106 Cavalry Builder +65.90% (last 12 months + 146.00%)

79107 Commanche Camp +10.36% (last 12 months + 28.93%)

79108 Stagecoach Escape +30.51% (last 12 months +39.64%)

79109 Colby City Showdown - 12.68% (last 12 months +1.11%)

79110 Silver Mine Shootout -24.09% (last 12 months +0.34%)

79111 Constitution Train Chase - 0.57% (last 12 months +23.32%)

Some very decent returns in that lot assuming people bought at the cheaper prices 12 months ago..

So it would appear that the small sets are outperforming the medium to large ones including the Constitution Train Chase. Interesting.
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could it be that the train was still available from Target? may be it will improve in sometime? for god's sake its a train how can we go wrong on that? :D

 

Hmm... good question.  2 things might be "wrong" about this train:

1) non-motorized

2) tricky to motorize 'cause the motor would not fit inside the engine :))

 

I still don't care and love this set in my collection :) 

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So it would appear that the small sets are outperforming the medium to large ones including the Constitution Train Chase. Interesting.

 

I did think the train would do better but am still happy with it so far. I think the last 12 month jumps show which are the popular sets in the theme. I didn't bother with the Silver Mine other than for my personal collection, and only picked up the Colby City set in bulk because I got them at like 70% off. 

Very happy to have plenty of the small sets. 

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I really like a lot of these sets. I'd like them more if they were just Wild West sets and didn't have the toxic Lone Ranger anchor tied around their necks.

 

EDIT: My hope is the abysmal performance of this theme will leave some quality sets in clearance bins for virtually nothing, but so far they are still being sold for full price in Canada.

Edited by bricketycricket
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The train was available up until a few months ago online....so I don't think we have seen accurate growth on it yet...

 

I agree with this. Remember it is one of the last sets to include fixed curve track pieces as well, not the adjustable ones. Might be a slow starter but holding this longer term it will do OK. 

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Of course, the theme itself has to be considered according to the location (USA / The rest of the world).

Bluecoats only have interest for few people here. (for the 79106 cavalry: +65% CAGR in the USA, -27% in europe...)

Please note that some +35 years old AFOLs can like them, thanks to a really great and quite popular "comic book": "Les tuniques Bleues":

tuniquesbleues29.jpg

 

But there isn't that many fans.

That's the reason why I only see the Train as a good investment in europe.

Mine, stagecoat, commanche camp... always discounted, retailers can't resell these, they are taking dust on shelves (except the C. Train, quite hard to find now). Although the 79106 Cavalry is quite hard to find, it may be wise to stock some and seems to be the right timing (low price, certainly few investors)...

 

2) tricky to motorize 'cause the motor would not fit inside the engine :))

 

It seems that the train can be motorized by adding some power function in a wagon (the coal wagon for instance).

Edited by biniou
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Am I the only one that sees the following kick ass combination?

 

79111 Constitution Train Chase with the 21103 Delorean and the lady from the 79108 Stagecoach Escape?

 

Or is it just me, cause I saw BTTF part III last night and came up with this idea?

Edited by Ciglione
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Am I the only one that sees the following kick ass combination?

 

79111 Constitution Train Chase with the 21103 Delorean and the lady from the 79108 Stagecoach Escape?

 

Or is it just me, cause I saw BTTF part III last night and came up with this idea?

Ha ha nice one.

 

Yeah I see the kick ass combination in it.

As collector and the more as "big child" it's cool! But as investor I wouldn't bet on it too much though.

 

I still can imagine that the sets might gain over time as they are really nice.

Maybe when there is a new western theme they might have a comeback as nice addition.

I got myself some small ones (mainly the cavalry... only 4x) and some trains (also 4x). Only ONE mine though...

My personal approach still is to buy small quantity of sets where I'm not too sure about the gain factor but they still do appeal to me (so it wouldn't be wasted money if I had to open them sometime for personal use ^.^)

 

I never understood the need of motorizing them anyways as I prefer to display them or do some minor playing ;-) (mostly by arranging them for display hrhr).

But going all crazy about a train that can drive or some button that enables you to use soundeffect... I don't know it just never was that cool too me.

 

Back to the Back to the Future stuff: I think the DeLorean is the best you can get out of the movies for LEGO as it is the most iconic thing there.

I wouldn't be suprised if they'd build a UCS DeLorean in future but as for the train I don't think so (the design is not that appealing and it's not important for the movies, nothing iconic about it... even if you happen to know the cartoon series ^.^)

 

As for Lone Ranger: It was not really a good movie though it was not as bad as others.

So I doubt that there will be a sequel or anything. To me investing in those is only because of the western theme, not at all because of the movie.

But can anybody say that those are not cool sets with ugly minifigs? I doubt that!

 

So let's all hope we can sell those in 1-3 years (don't think they will be good for anything long after that point...) and make some money to reinvest.

If not I still have some nice minifigs and trains to play with when I have children ^.^ I guess mine will have to skip the LEGO DUPLO and PlayMobile part and start right out with LEGO UCS hrhr.

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The train set is doing fine (and is certainly not a bust) - You need to stop looking at the CAGR based only on MSRP, and keep in mind the avg cost that investors actually had.

 

It isn't a coincidence that the so called underperfomers were all available for extended periods at huge markdowns.

 

The fact that the Train is back to msrp so quick is great - and the positive performance of the theme overall is pretty surprising.

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I approached the movie with an open mind. I figured the critics unfairly killed the movie. And I really wanted to see the constitution train.

I had to turn it off after 40 minutes. What an horrible experience.

Not for nuttin'....ain't no Godfather(...in my Paulie Walnuts voice).
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While I appreciate the work involved in the in depth CAGR analysis, these sets have not been retired through a holiday season yet. Silver Mine/Colby City are still all over TRU shelves (and I had seen them at some discounters too), and the other ones were available into Jan/Feb.

 

I am not claiming this will be the best performing theme ever, but the early results of say the Cavalry and the Stagecoach are encouraging, (If you got these at 50% off and sold now you'd still probably double your money, which for sets not gone a year yet is pretty darn good), and the Camp isn't far behind.

 

The Train was kind of hoarded by resellers (as evidenced by 150+ sellers on Amazon right now), and was avail until a few months ago on retailers websites. I think it'll take longer, but I still feel this set will do just fine. Especially since many of us got in at 50% off. 

 

The Silver Mine and Colby City I am less optimistic about because of the lingering availability, although quite frankly I think Colby City is a great set. And even that one has crept $5 over MSRP. I hope history vindicates it. As people said, don't think of these as Lone Ranger sets, and try to think of them as Western sets. 

 

I will be much more interested on these numbers come 12/26. These sets had a very short production run, and actually supplies of them have to be low. They have scarcity built in. Now we need to see if the demand will be there. And you have to wonder if the LEGO Movie itself, with its western themed scenes, might help spur some interest in the younger fans.

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While I appreciate the work involved in the in depth CAGR analysis, these sets have not been retired through a holiday season yet. Silver Mine/Colby City are still all over TRU shelves (and I had seen them at some discounters too), and the other ones were available into Jan/Feb.

 

I am not claiming this will be the best performing theme ever, but the early results of say the Cavalry and the Stagecoach are encouraging, (If you got these at 50% off and sold now you'd still probably double your money, which for sets not gone a year yet is pretty darn good), and the Camp isn't far behind.

 

The Train was kind of hoarded by resellers (as evidenced by 150+ sellers on Amazon right now), and was avail until a few months ago on retailers websites. I think it'll take longer, but I still feel this set will do just fine. Especially since many of us got in at 50% off. 

 

The Silver Mine and Colby City I am less optimistic about because of the lingering availability, although quite frankly I think Colby City is a great set. And even that one has crept $5 over MSRP. I hope history vindicates it. As people said, don't think of these as Lone Ranger sets, and try to think of them as Western sets. 

 

I will be much more interested on these numbers come 12/26. These sets had a very short production run, and actually supplies of them have to be low. They have scarcity built in. Now we need to see if the demand will be there. And you have to wonder if the LEGO Movie itself, with its western themed scenes, might help spur some interest in the younger fans.

My point was less about how fast they are performing now and the overall CAGR was that was what drew my attention to dig further. I have seen most of these sets derided by people on this site but I thought these were great sets for the most part. Colby is not quite up to MSRP yet but is gaining. 

Personally I think Lego gave investors a gift with this theme through the factors you have mentioned. So many people look at how a set performs from retail and it is something I have seen repetitiously on this site lately but let's be honest how many here would buy these sets at full retail?

If you got them at half price you are already running close to 100% profit on some sets before fees. That's money. 

It isn't a LE Technic Crawler or a Research Institute but what it is is a great opportunity to raise some dollars. 

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