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75054 - AT-AT


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9 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I sold some at $240 FBA a few weeks ago, but the price dropped shortly afterward.  They are moving quite briskly at $230 now.

I was hesitant to let some go at $220 on eBay but I wanted to test the market.  They sold quickly so I put an end to that nonsense.

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On 6/10/2016 at 1:12 PM, BrickLegacy said:

I was hesitant to let some go at $220 on eBay but I wanted to test the market.  They sold quickly so I put an end to that nonsense.

Yeah, I sold a few at that price a few months ago.  I think i'm going to wait before they hit over 250 before releasing anymore.  Heck, we are all making 2x after fees at this point, and considering this set just retired, that makes this one of the best investments of last year.

I'm sort of thinking that a new AT-AT won't appear for a while.  I'd say the earliest would be the summer wave of 2017, but when you really think about it, I think a y-wing, and a Tantive IV would be more probable in the lineup, when it comes to larger sets.  So, I wouldn't be shocked if a new AT-AT with the Rogue One movie tie-in didn't appear until 2018.  I think 300 by the holiday rush is a good probability.  I also see the Republic Gunship, and the AT-TE from the Yoda waves nearing that price too.  All 3 turned out to be great investments and better than the Cantina's and ISD's.

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1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

Yeah, I sold a few at that price a few months ago.  I think i'm going to wait before they hit over 250 before releasing anymore.  Heck, we are all making 2x after fees at this point, and considering this set just retired, that makes this one of the best investments of last year.

I'm sort of thinking that a new AT-AT won't appear for a while.  I'd say the earliest would be the summer wave of 2017, but when you really think about it, I think a y-wing, and a Tantive IV would be more probable in the lineup, when it comes to larger sets.  So, I wouldn't be shocked if a new AT-AT with the Rogue One movie tie-in didn't appear until 2018.  I think 300 by the holiday rush is a good probability.  I also see the Republic Gunship, and the AT-TE from the Yoda waves nearing that price too.  All 3 turned out to be great investments and better than the Cantina's and ISD's.

I never expected the AT-TE to jump like it has, because of the poor minifig selection.  I had a few for resale, but I would have liked to had a bunch more.  AT $50 for near it's whole life on the market, it was a steal.

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3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

Yeah, I sold a few at that price a few months ago.  I think i'm going to wait before they hit over 250 before releasing anymore.  Heck, we are all making 2x after fees at this point, and considering this set just retired, that makes this one of the best investments of last year.

I'm sort of thinking that a new AT-AT won't appear for a while.  I'd say the earliest would be the summer wave of 2017, but when you really think about it, I think a y-wing, and a Tantive IV would be more probable in the lineup, when it comes to larger sets.  So, I wouldn't be shocked if a new AT-AT with the Rogue One movie tie-in didn't appear until 2018.  I think 300 by the holiday rush is a good probability.  I also see the Republic Gunship, and the AT-TE from the Yoda waves nearing that price too.  All 3 turned out to be great investments and better than the Cantina's and ISD's.

Seriously? The AT-TE doing well in the USA? Here I could still buy a new in sealed box AT-TE for less than original RRP price through our local CL (Marktplaats) site.

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4 hours ago, Haay said:

Seriously? The AT-TE doing well in the USA? Here I could still buy a new in sealed box AT-TE for less than original RRP price through our local CL (Marktplaats) site.

Weirdly, most of the prequel sets are.  Most of the prequel sets from the last 3 to 4 years are doing pretty well from a growth perspective.  I think what it is from is millennials are earning more and these were the movies they grew up with, and they want these sets. 

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6 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Weirdly, most of the prequel sets are.  Most of the prequel sets from the last 3 to 4 years are doing pretty well from a growth perspective.  I think what it is from is millennials are earning more and these were the movies they grew up with, and they want these sets. 

I predicted something like that.

 

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1 hour ago, Haay said:

In The Netherlands / Europe it's not going so fast either. On Marktplaats.nl they're offered (NISB) for around €160 and on eBay Europe the most recent sold listings are in the €200 - €240 range.

 

3 hours ago, tacsniper said:

Far from it... Amazon.com only have it at $240 USD.

Yes. Just too optimistic. I think its already a bonus if it reaches $300USD level. Recent non-UCS famous item like 9493 can only reach 3X after retirement.

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4 hours ago, Haay said:

In The Netherlands / Europe it's not going so fast either. On Marktplaats.nl they're offered (NISB) for around €160 and on eBay Europe the most recent sold listings are in the €200 - €240 range.

Just be patient. Now is not a good time. People are planning and paying for their vacations.

Business should get back to normal again in September. If no new AT-AT is revealed I could see this one make a nice jump during the holidays.

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Just now, Ciglione said:

Just be patient. Now is not a good time. People are planning and paying for their vacations.

Business should get back to normal again in September. If no new AT-AT is revealed I could see this one make a nice jump during the holidays.

Yes, that's what I've been saying too :) The price hike will come in September/October when people are back to their regular routine again, when the hype for Rogue One is getting in full swing, and when the weather is moving to Autumn with rain showers so people will enjoy building their newly purchased LEGO sets once again. :D 

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this set is grinding on up at a decent clip.  these move quickly on amazon FBM at $235 with shipping fees from amazon. i sold 3 in one day last week at this price.  

given the approximately $5 per month price increase we're probably looking at $260-270 FBM-$299 FBA this coming 2016 holiday season.

2017 will be the tricky year.  there has been a 1000 piece AT-AT on a 3-4 year release schedule going back to the first release.  the most recent was 2014.   if we get confirmation of a new AT-AT in 2017 the price will probably take an initial hit.  if the set isn't released until Fall 2018, $350 for holiday season 2017 would be reasonable.  

things may be continue to rise in 2017 but i will probably clear the rest of my position (7 left) by the end of this year and put the proceeds into UCS Slave I's.

 

 

Amazon price history chart for LEGO Star Wars 75054 AT-AT Building Toy (B00J4S9BEA)

Edited by cladner
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5 hours ago, Haay said:

when the hype for Rogue One is getting in full swing,

That is where the up tick in price will be; along with ISD, hopefully.

Also, Grandma/pa and mommy buying AOH UCS for little Timmy and then Daddy looks at it and still missing something. Push the home button on the tablet and start searching for Lego AT-AT ;) 

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31 minutes ago, thoroakenfelder said:

Am I the only one who didn't have a grandparent that could swing $250 for a single toy for them growing up?

My parents spent $250 for a single toy once growing up (NES) ... my grandparents couldn't swing $2.50 for a toy! I got mints from my grandmother's purse. :)

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3 minutes ago, gregpj said:

My parents spent $250 for a single toy once growing up (NES) ... my grandparents couldn't swing $2.50 for a toy! I got mints from my grandmother's purse. :)

:) you made me think of those little sticks of cinnamon Dentyne gum that I would get from my grandmother. They were stuffed into that coin purse that she used to carry her cigarettes in.

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8 hours ago, Haay said:

Yes, that's what I've been saying too :) The price hike will come in September/October when people are back to their regular routine again, when the hype for Rogue One is getting in full swing, and when the weather is moving to Autumn with rain showers so people will enjoy building their newly purchased LEGO sets once again. :D 

I agree with you there.  Right now, it's definitely a lull period, and sales have been sort of ok, but I know the storm is coming and selling SW sets right now unless you really need the cash is kind of selling yourself a little short, compared to if you wait a few more months. Force Friday will get here soon enough, and then it will be time to ride yet another wave of profit... The same pattern as last year is currently in session, IMO.

I really hope that Disney keeps up with the force friday event every year.  Last year, most of the profit I made from being a selective SQFLL pretty much paid for all the FA collection items that I collect. I'm not kidding.  From Force Friday up until about 2 weeks after Christmas, Star Wars items were just selling and selling and prices were mostly on the upward trajectory on almost every set.  There is no doubt in my mind that same wave will happen again once Force Friday hits and all the new stuff hits the market for Rogue One.  Right now we are just in that lull period, and people are focused on their Vacations instead of Lego Star Wars...  but the next storm is coming. 

Last year, I was pretty giddy when I saw x-wings going for 170, and Republic Gunships hit the 200 mark.  My buy in on those sets was about 25% under RRP, so it was an easy win.  Back then I wouldn't have speculated Gunships over 220 by this time, let alone reaching 200 that quick after retirement.  But it spiked earlier than I would have guessed, and a lot of that was due to the hype over the new movie.  So many SW sets saw a higher than guessed jump, and I suspect we will see the same this year for yoda boxed and vader boxed versions.  I do think we will see anywhere from a 30 to 50% uptick in prices on most retired sets (pre-2104), for those that still hold them.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I think AT-AT's will hit 320 FBM and 350 FBA during the holiday rush.  The ISD will be around 240/260.  Cantinas 130/150.  You'll also see Gunships, AT-TE, and even the lowly Sail Barge and Rancor Pit spike higher to where offloading some will be enticing.
 

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46 minutes ago, gregpj said:

My parents spent $250 for a single toy once growing up (NES) ... my grandparents couldn't swing $2.50 for a toy! I got mints from my grandmother's purse. :)

I only found out later in life that my grandparents bought us the NES that we opened up Christmas morning.  My grandparents helped to make that Christmas one to remember and wish I could have thanked them before they passed. That was one of my favorite gifts of all time, 2nd only to the SNES which I discovered before Christmas by hunting for Santa's hidden stash.  That guilt has never left me and to this day I don't have the heart to tell my mom I faked the surprise.  :(

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4 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

I only found out later in life that my grandparents bought us the NES that we opened up Christmas morning.  My grandparents helped to make that Christmas one to remember and wish I could have thanked them before they passed. That was one of my favorite gifts of all time, 2nd only to the SNES which I discovered before Christmas by hunting for Santa's hidden stash.  That guilt has never left me and to this day I don't have the heart to tell my mom I faked the surprise.  :(

Dude, I used to open all my gifts before Christmas, play with them, and rewrap them. I had no problem faking surprise and I have no guilt whatsoever.

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