Bricktober Mini Modulars - 2014

[trekgate502]

Apparently I can buy a large stack of the Townhall at $20 each plus tax is that something anyone thinks I should do l?

[supergtp1]

Apparently I can buy a large stack of the Townhall at $20 each plus tax is that something anyone thinks I should do l?

buy first ask questions later. Lol!

[trekgate502]

Well I can buy at least 20 of them but I'm just concerned that perhaps the hype is fading like all other promotionals generally do

[Brickbuilder.g]

I guess i don't see the hype. Do we think these are going to double msrp ?? As of right now I don't see it...I have a few sets and I'm pretty sure a tru near me will sell them and I could probably grave another 10-20 sets ...

[supergtp1]

Well I can buy at least 20 of them but I'm just concerned that perhaps the hype is fading like all other promotionals generally do

IMO I'd get them if I could but TRU around me won't sell which seems to be the consensus lately.

[sroster]

Well I can buy at least 20 of them but I'm just concerned that perhaps the hype is fading like all other promotionals generally do

 

I'm not going to go out of my way looking for them but if I walked in my TRU and saw 20 of them for sale I'd probably nab them.  1) Town Hall is the coolest of the 4 IMO.  2) this is the one that couldn't be gotten using a TRU coupon so I think maybe less peeps like myself stockpiled them (I only have 6)  3) If the rumors are true TRU are shipping these all back to lego they should do pretty well 4) You probably have 20 of the modular Town Halls so you can always pair them with those when you sell, heh heh.  5) If this is the beginning of a series of mini modulars you will be happy you hoarded these

Edited November 3, 2014 by sroster

[Achilles]

For all of the people that have come and gone in this thread talking about how certain individuals such as myself or others that have bought so many of these and it's horrible etc...give it a break.

 

 

What you're forgetting is that retail organizations (and large businesses in general) completely over-react to minor things. Your numbers make sense, and work on logic. A lot of businesses don't always do that.

 

Also, let's not forget the point of the promotion was to move $75 worth of OTHER LEGO SETS. It clearly goes against the spirit of the promo itself to buy the sets to get a free set, and unless every TRU manager is dumb, they are going to take notice. General employees may take notice. Other customers may take notice. There's something to be said for keeping a low profile. 

 

They literally need to get one old fashioned complaint letter to get wheels moving. Or they look at their own numbers and see something is up. I know we all want to say that retailers (TRU in particular) are really dumb, but obviously they have some people doing their homework there, and that homework gets easier and easier with all the analytics and instant access to information.

 

The following retail changes have occured in the last 12 months alone, and this is a partial list:

 

1. Walmart has stopped their 50% off LEGO After Christmas clearance.

2. K-Mart.com no longer accepts (Many) coupons for LEGO.

3. Barnes and Noble coupons exclude LEGO.

4. Target.com has begun pricing their hard to find/retiring soon LEGO sets at higher than MSRP regularly.

5. TRU (most of them) have stopped selling their PROMO items separately, and are actually getting corporate orders to NOT sell them.

6. TRU Coupons (some of them) are starting to exclude LEGO.

 

I know I am not going to change anyone's behaviors, there are some folks who are short sighted and frankly don't care about "the future" of LEGO Investing, they want to get as much money as they can right now. I am not claiming you are like that, but there are lots of folks who are. Some on this site, many others who don't bother. 

 

But to deny that the impact of increased LEGO reselling visibility/reseller actions helped bring about these changes is really silly. 

 

I am not trying to take any sort of high road here or call anyone out, I am just pointing out that there is a cause/effect relationship between resellers and retailer policies. 

 

I am not one of those sky is falling sorts, but anyone who wants to do this long term should think about their actions and encourage others to think as well. Lots of people have pointed out increased competition/lower prices, harder to find deals, etc etc. It's not going to get any easier from here. And we certainly can't be surprised when retailers adjust. 

[Brickbuilder.g]

I guess i don't see the hype. Do we think these are going to double msrp ?? As of right now I don't see it...I have a few sets and I'm pretty sure a tru near me will sell them and I could probably grave another 10-20 sets ...

[zskid00]

I don't think I would buy any of these at $20 plus tax right now unless I could put full sets together.  I was doing some buy 4 get 1 free when the promotion was still active but the couple of stores that had previous weeks' sets on the shelf pulled them before last week.  Right now they are not going to put them back out and I think I'm done since the promotion is over.  It was good while it lasted though.

[trekgate502]

Thanks everyone.

 

Raven & MTG I would love to hear what you think on buying up 20 Town Halls...

[Achilles]

For giggles, I looked on Amazon to see how many people are selling each of the promo sets:

 

My assumption is that 95% of them are "serious" resellers:

 

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Theater #1/4 (40180) - 50 Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Pizza Place #2/4 (40181) - 48

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Fire Station #3/4 (40182) - 32

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Town Hall #4/4 (40183) - 9

 

Ebay search for 40180 Theater brought up 111 hits. This includes full sets, of course.

 

 

The LEGO.com Promo: Toy workshop 40106 - 112.

 

To me, this is a STRIKING # of people selling these JUST RELEASED promos. Last year, the LEGO promo and the TRU sets probably had HALF those numbers. Obviously, the TRU promos weren't nearly as interesting, but I think it's still relevant. I think many more people are employing the sell now for $5/$10 profit option than in years past as well, where as buying and holding was the norm - Which of course lowers prices across the board and reduces demand because supply is more readily available.

 

For comparison purposes, I pulled up the Ultra Agents sets being sold by "traditional" amazon resellers, people who get stuff from a distributor and sell online for a profit. The average # of sellers for each Ultra Agent set was around 40. 

 

Anyway, these numbers may be mostly meaningless, but I find them interesting to look at it and compare trends. Just stuff to think about.

[zskid00]

I'm curious to know what the prices for these promotional items are long-term.  My strategy has always been to sell early and often to make my own discount on the sets I was purchasing.  It doesn't seem like many of them increase in value that much after the promotion and most times you can get better money early on while there is more interest in the promo and before the secondary market gets flooded.

[edgecrusher]

So I've picked up the first 3 Bricktober sets no problem, but when I went to get the Town Hall last week, somebody had purchased all of them by Wednesday. The manager said she thought more would be in on Saturday. Of course, this was not the case.My plan was to buy a single set to hold for a bit, and if the prices took off I'd sell them; otherwise I'm happy to build and display the set of 4. Do you guys think it's worth snagging a Town Hall on eBay now, or should I just forget it and sell the other 3? Thanks.

[ravenb99]

Thanks everyone.

 

Raven & MTG I would love to hear what you think on buying up 20 Town Halls...

I would personally give you $25 per right now to complete my sets.  I know thats not much profit but I do believe in the full sets (still $73 profit on a $500 sale).  Having all 4 is the only real investment potential I see.  Having some solos is good for the people that need to complete the sets but I feel a lot of people will give up and sell there solos so they will drop until they dry up.  Just at the buy in of $70 per set (for the sets built by doing the buy 4 get 1 free)  I see an easy $30-50 profit after fees.   Then the ones where you got it free you take the profit off the sets you bought to have a nicely discount set for sale for the holidays or even further down the road.  Which for me the big ones were Sith, Duplo Train and SW advents.  

[ravenb99]

For giggles, I looked on Amazon to see how many people are selling each of the promo sets:

 

My assumption is that 95% of them are "serious" resellers:

 

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Theater #1/4 (40180) - 50 Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Pizza Place #2/4 (40181) - 48

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Fire Station #3/4 (40182) - 32

Lego, Exclusive 2014 Bricktober Set, Town Hall #4/4 (40183) - 9

 

Ebay search for 40180 Theater brought up 111 hits. This includes full sets, of course.

 

 

The LEGO.com Promo: Toy workshop 40106 - 112.

 

To me, this is a STRIKING # of people selling these JUST RELEASED promos. Last year, the LEGO promo and the TRU sets probably had HALF those numbers. Obviously, the TRU promos weren't nearly as interesting, but I think it's still relevant. I think many more people are employing the sell now for $5/$10 profit option than in years past as well, where as buying and holding was the norm - Which of course lowers prices across the board and reduces demand because supply is more readily available.

 

For comparison purposes, I pulled up the Ultra Agents sets being sold by "traditional" amazon resellers, people who get stuff from a distributor and sell online for a profit. The average # of sellers for each Ultra Agent set was around 40. 

 

Anyway, these numbers may be mostly meaningless, but I find them interesting to look at it and compare trends. Just stuff to think about.

A lot of it depends on your purpose for buying the set.  If your main intention is to get a guaranteed discount on an exclusive then selling the promo early is smart as that could be as much as a 20% discount off an exclusive (on a $100 set).  If you don't sell the set you aren't realizing the discount.  

 

The toy workshop would be a great example of that.  I sold a bunch at the $20 range to get my exclusives down.  I also saved about a 1/3 of them to pair with the Workshop of which they are selling for $115 for the pair so now you are realizing $45 of the Elf piece if you paid $70 for the Workshop.  So its not bad to do both depending on your view. 

 

Anything promo over the past year has pretty much been sell early to get the  most , or then take less after its been out , followed up by holding and having some go back up.

 

I personally always like to sell some so I get my exclusives cheaper to hold for the long term.  Thats the best way to get your exclusives cheap from the get go.  The one I happened to hold was the spaceman and you can see how that turned out.  Should go back up but instead of $20-25 at the beginning they dropped to $12-15.  So if you were buying for the intent of getting your exclusive the cheapest you still would of been better with the quick flip.

[exciter1]

So I've picked up the first 3 Bricktober sets no problem, but when I went to get the Town Hall last week, somebody had purchased all of them by Wednesday. The manager said she thought more would be in on Saturday. Of course, this was not the case.My plan was to buy a single set to hold for a bit, and if the prices took off I'd sell them; otherwise I'm happy to build and display the set of 4. Do you guys think it's worth snagging a Town Hall on eBay now, or should I just forget it and sell the other 3? Thanks.

 

I'd just forget it and sell the other 3.

[MTG/LEGO]

So you're supposedly a retired guy and you spend your time waiting for a Call of Duty release after "partying" in Vegas all while saying you can ****** up 10-20% of a promotion yourself.. Sure..

Yea I just turned 30 what am I suppose to do? Play shuffleboard and golf daily? I will probably get back into doing something in jan or in a year. I'm getting bored already. And yes I know I could go traveling more etc etc but I already spent 10 years in Europe. Now I just feel like resting. I know this is hard for several members on this site to understand but hey I don't understand why most people work for someone else for 40 years and retire with nothing.

By the way the new call of duty sucks imo

[peeiempee]

There's a TRU at a real ghetto place in California.  They have loads of them I completed 10 sets.  There are still more individual sets there pizza parlor, and movie.  I was wondering if it would be worth it to hold these till next year? Any thoughts?

[peeiempee]

I usually quick flip to keep the investment cost down too.  But after I sold all the ones for quick flips that quickly and most were from eBay lego sellers, I kinda think this set will skyrocket like most modular sets do.  Any insight on this?

[MTG/LEGO]

Thanks everyone.

 

Raven & MTG I would love to hear what you think on buying up 20 Town Halls...

  

So I've picked up the first 3 Bricktober sets no problem, but when I went to get the Town Hall last week, somebody had purchased all of them by Wednesday. The manager said she thought more would be in on Saturday. Of course, this was not the case.My plan was to buy a single set to hold for a bit, and if the prices took off I'd sell them; otherwise I'm happy to build and display the set of 4. Do you guys think it's worth snagging a Town Hall on eBay now, or should I just forget it and sell the other 3? Thanks.

  

I would personally give you $25 per right now to complete my sets.  I know thats not much profit but I do believe in the full sets (still $73 profit on a $500 sale).  Having all 4 is the only real investment potential I see.  Having some solos is good for the people that need to complete the sets but I feel a lot of people will give up and sell there solos so they will drop until they dry up.  Just at the buy in of $70 per set (for the sets built by doing the buy 4 get 1 free)  I see an easy $30-50 profit after fees.   Then the ones where you got it free you take the profit off the sets you bought to have a nicely discount set for sale for the holidays or even further down the road.  Which for me the big ones were Sith, Duplo Train and SW advents.

Trek. I would say that having full sets is the best but seeing how popular town hall was and how limited it seems to be I wouldn't mind picking those up because that's what people will need to complete there sets. Like raven said he would already buy them from you and he's not even the end user.

To the guy that has the 3. I would buy a town hall to complete your set. Just my opinion but I think it could do better as a set.

I did the same as raven saving money on things I plan to keep or maybe part out at some point so selling early to lock in that discount can be good because some of these were going for 35-40$ each.

I guess everyone's situation is different. I plan on selling half this year and saving the other half for next year and the years after. Others might only have a sets and just wanted a quick flip so I would say wait till dec.

[Ed Mack]

Everything in moderation.  I cannot fault buyers who are able to buy 20, 30 or more of these sets.  It's the fault of the individual store manager to not implement the promo properly.  That being said, buying behaviors such as this will cause a retailer like TRU to stop promos to avoid future aggravation and headaches with other consumers.  

 

The excessive one time buying of sets like this brings way too much negative attention to the entire LEGO reseller and investment community. Even though it might be a nice short term score, buying practices like this will only hurt us all in the long run.

[ravenb99]

Everything in moderation.  I cannot fault buyers who are able to buy 20, 30 or more of these sets.  It's the fault of the individual store manager to not implement the promo properly.  That being said, buying behaviors such as this will cause a retailer like TRU to stop promos to avoid future aggravation and headaches with other consumers.  

 

The excessive one time buying of sets like this brings way too much negative attention to the entire LEGO reseller and investment community. Even though it might be a nice short term score, buying practices like this will only hurt us all in the long run.

That goes into anything investment wise not just LEGO.  Anything hot is usually scooped up in mere minutes these days.  The Disney designer dolls being and example or the Vera Bradley Disney patterns last year (how many people bought 2 of each pattern per account).   Olive Garden Pasta Bowl, Starbucks Gold cards last year and year before.  The list goes on and on.

 

Same could go for the scooping up of the hot sets.  Does anyone on here buy 1 TH, HH, SSD or do you hit the max allowed when they come up? (not counting if you can only afford to purchase 1)

 

Or finding clearance minifigs for 1.48  (there were a few pics of large quantities bought).  Does an individual just buy say 20 or 30 or take all 200.  

 

The Wal-Mart clearance deal haul a few months back that filled a garage at 75% off.  The manager clearly wanted to dump the product out of there store for room for new merchandise and that person was the only taker up to that time.  

 

Or by buying 30 or more seperate orders from LEGO or Shop at home to get  the free promo with each order (I am very guilty of that one)

 

These are all instances of the reseller community buying up in large quantities for the intent of a quick flip in most cases.  I am sure it is frowned upon by some others that wanted to get the item but on the flip side of that the items were there available for anyone up until that point.

 

With the Bricktobers I was always under the impression that once that weeks sales were over the remaining items are put on the shelf for sale.  I only went on Sundays with the hope of getting any additionals (one store I went at 5 til close Saturday as I was on vacation leaving the next morning).  So the general public had the option of participating in the "promotion" part all week.  At that point any extras would go on sale to the public at 19.99.  I know some purchased ahead of that time period.  I myself got a few that way (and I do mean a few like adding on 1 or 2) but the majority bought in bulk were bought after the week was over.

 

I agree it all affects our industry but it is more than on just promotional sets like this.  It all is factored in the whole picture of how we are looked at.  

[peeiempee]

Everything in moderation.  I cannot fault buyers who are able to buy 20, 30 or more of these sets.  It's the fault of the individual store manager to not implement the promo properly.  That being said, buying behaviors such as this will cause a retailer like TRU to stop promos to avoid future aggravation and headaches with other consumers.  

 

The excessive one time buying of sets like this brings way too much negative attention to the entire LEGO reseller and investment community. Even though it might be a nice short term score, buying practices like this will only hurt us all in the long run.

 

I don't know if this post was referring to me or not.  But seems like it is so I will respond.  It is TRU's policy for promos to be sold at retail after promo is over (or what are they to do? Throw them away?).  All stores I called, (around 10) did not have ANY of these left.  It just got lucky with this one.  This particular one has a demographic that has no interest in Legos which is why they had so many.  I bought 10 total sets.  A little less than $1000 spent.  Nothing compared to Ezmaer's 52 Haunted Houses and 75 Grand Emporiums.  So maybe this post should be directed to people with these quantities and not someone who was just asking if it is a good idea to hold 10 sets.  10 sets is nothing, most avid investors here have 10 sets or are trying to get 10 sets of all the good sets.  

 

If this was directed at me it's all good. You are entitled to your own opinion and I am entitled to do what I please to do.

[Grynn]

If you want to maintain an advantage, the last thing you want to do is bring attention to it.

 

This Bricktober situation is perhaps not a big deal in the grand scheme, but is easily lumped into the discussion with Ban Hammers and Coupon Restrictions and ID Required for Returns and Exchanges.

 

As far as the math, the person behind you in line doesn't give a rat's rear end about the numbers when they can't get their mini TH today because you bought the last one... and the one before that... and the one before that... x50. It doesn't matter if the store let you or not - the backlash and negative perception is what really matters in the long run. And in this world of blanket policies and over-reaction, hundreds and thousands of those cases added up over months and years and states make life a lot harder for almost anyone trying to make money here.

 

"It's not really hurting anyone" has, since the beginning of time, been a deluded justification for excessive greed and selfishness. Not meant to be any sort of personal "attack", just food for thought. Moderation, indeed...

 

If you want to maintain an advantage, the last thing you want to do is bring attention to it.

[MTG/LEGO]

Went to a tru and saw 4 promo modulars and asked if I could buy them and they said no they can't sell th. so I go to look around in the lego section and there are 20 town halls sitting on the shelf. The store was about to close so I will maybe try and go there in the morning when a new shift is there and just put it all in a cart and see if they will let me check out