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10245 - Santa's Workshop


biniou

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Next year will be no shortage, tlg now got #s sold over the season and will be ready sell more

It's a gamble. In 2012, Advent Calendars were rampent in clearance end caps across the country. The next year (2013) was the historic shortage. I missed out, and didn't look twice when this year's calendar came out. Moral of the story - none of us know if there will be a shortage or not. Placing your money where your gut is is as good a chance as any other in this case.

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This is Santa Claus.  He will forever be iconic.  Typically, the winter sets sell for two winter seasons, and then they are gone.  I expect this one to have sold sales for years.

 

Even if TLG decides to not retire this after next Christmas, it will still sell strong every year.  There will be shortages every year, and there will still people that need to get the quick.

 

I, too, am going "All Ed" on this set.  I think this is another great set to pick up.

Couldn't of said it any better. Iconic character / set that will always be in demand.  Built it on Thanksgiving with my daughter and she loved it.  

 

If there are any available in early 2015, it would be as good of a time as any to stock up for next Xmas and beyond.

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As I collect and really don't sell anything, I managed to get one of these. Don't really have an interest in building it but is it wise to sell it now or perhaps hold? Paid the $69rtl price.

Only sell it now if you like money. Lego sah says they'll be more in feb.
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Even if you a just a builder. Sell it for $150, and buy another + more lego

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

It was tough to crack the seals to build it the other night.  I had a bought some damaged box ones and made sure to pick the absolute worst box for us LOL.  

 

The daughter wouldn't of been to pleased had I sold it.  Gotta remember what there made for from time to time. 

 

I've sold my Tumbler more times than I can count now.  When it has to do with the kid I usually hold strong.  I got her into trains this past year also and bought a bunch of the 7938 and she loved the red train.  I started selling them at double what I paid for and tried to sway her away to the new passenger.   Needless to say I still have a red passenger aside for her.  For me I don't care as I will always replace it but for kids its more than the $$$ which is nice.    

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This is Santa Claus.  He will forever be iconic.  Typically, the winter sets sell for two winter seasons, and then they are gone.  I expect this one to have sold sales for years.

 

Even if TLG decides to not retire this after next Christmas, it will still sell strong every year.  There will be shortages every year, and there will still people that need to get the quick.

 

I, too, am going "All Ed" on this set.  I think this is another great set to pick up.

 

I don't know man....the way society is trying to turn Merry Christmas into "Happy Holidays," maybe Santa will be banned next. Wait, that might make it worth more.

Guys, my name's not Timmy or Johnny, but please save me one next year cuz I'm listing my only one now. :P

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I can depend on exciter1 to pour some salt on the ol wound :P :P :P

 

Btw, I thought Pseudoty sold the SsW (without EW) for about $175 ?  You may want to bump up your price

 

It must be my EBay status and search rating.  I haven't had any trouble when I list $10 - $20 over the going rate.  I do that in order to have my items ready when items get to that price point, but sometimes they sell earlier than expected.

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I don't know man....the way society is trying to turn Merry Christmas into "Happy Holidays," maybe Santa will be banned next. Wait, that might make it worth more.

Guys, my name's not Timmy or Johnny, but please save me one next year cuz I'm listing my only one now. :P

 

Thankfully Lego is not an American company.

 

 

 

 

 

Guys, this set is going to remain popular, I agree. It is iconic. It is cheap (at least relative to previous winter sets and modulars, which are likely the most overlapping interests). It is pretty well designed. What's not to like?

 

Now, as an investment, I can't see it being a loser in any sense, but I think there are several things to keep in mind:

 

It is very likely to follow the 2-year availability pattern. But the way Lego is shaking up EOL, that could change. I can't imagine it NOT being available next year, but it may go a third or fourth year, as well. If DS, TB, and T1 can be "different", why not this set? It's already a bit odd, not being a "true" "winter village" set.

 

With that in mind, the demand this year should have told Lego to produce PLENTY again next year. They have already shown similar planning with WVM, accurate or not. There may not be any reason for people to pay 2x MSRP for this set next year. It's not really going to catch folks by surprise at the same level AGAIN. Additionally, few of those who paid that price this year are going to pay at all next year. Do we expect Lego as a whole to basically double in popularity in 2015 in order to produce the same demand for SW as this year?

 

and on that note...

 

Assuming that yet another winter set is introduced next year, I expect it to significantly affect SW sales, but there is no telling how. I think a very large, expensive set would probably help SW to an extent, whereas another medium well-designed set will compete directly and successfully for the target consumer's dollar. This is essentially a huge factor that magnifies the supply/demand "problem" with WVM this year, right? It is WAY easier to walk in and buy SW than WVM. No one knows what that scenario will be 10-11 months from now.

 

So, while not advising against investing in these, I will advise a bit of caution and state here that I am not going to gobble them up in February (if available), and not expect them to flip as well next year (see DC/OH patterns, if not already obvious). I will put my limited money elsewhere until I see what holiday sets come out next September(?), be ready to move on this set again to some extent, and be prepared to accept it all as a mistake on my part if that is what it turns out to be.

Edited by Grynn
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I'll be stocking up on this set all year.  I won't be selling any next Christmas.  Maybe sell in 2016-2017.

Agreed...I don't see a flip opportunity at all next year...which is fine, I like you will be stocking these up for the future as it's a $200 set in time no question....this year was an easy pick...$100-$125 was a given, <$150 surprised me....given the relatively low start price of $70 vs $100 baked in an extra $30 of profit and that was a big reason for the flip this year...a slightly bigger set with a $100 price tag and I would have been less bullish

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