Ideas #007: 21109 - Exo-Suit

[Darth_Raichu]

There is some value in ignoring the horde sometimes...it is often an unthinking reactionary beast.

Galaxy Squad FOR THE W.... ehm carry on....

[Veegs]

Galaxy Squad FOR THE W.... ehm carry on....

I should have stressed the sometimes part...Most of the time I'm all for joining the mob.

[jaisonline]

your post kinda reinitiates my profile pic, huh?  ha

It must be very hard to forecast demands for LEGO.  When they made too few, the customers complain about scarcity and high price on 3rd party sellers.  When they made just enough (based on the demand for 21102 Minecraft), they got inundated by wannabe QFLL returning their product en-mass...

.. and some people wonder why LEGO hate re-sellers

[Val-E]

Is it worth buying the Exo Suits? I can pick up about 30 of them from local stores for ~$20 each, but I'm pretty new to investing in sealed LEGO sets and I'm not really sure how to determine if a set is rare, or will increase in value - let alone how long it will take to do so. Amazon and the US Lego store still have plenty in stock.

If Lego themselves discount a set, especially in North America, there is a good reason for it.

It´s not a rare set and not hugely desirable but that may all change when a future wave of AFOLs come ot of their dark ages.

Quite a few resellers went in deep on this thinking it would be Mars Rover part 2 so it will take a long time for that stock to be used up.

[colossus]

So to summarize:

-A few people made good money QF this set when it was released because those 10,000 people that approved this set were too slow to order it

-The set has has horrible sales since its release as evidenced by its sales numbers on eBay.  Even after a 50% off sale it still lingered in EU and would not die while Hobbit's LM sold out in hours

-The set is retired in Europe. Only people buying this turkey now are Slickdealers thinking they can flip it or new AFOLs who see it as good pieces for the price.

-It may go above MSRP eventually, but your money would be much better invested in almost anything else from Mixels to Chima

-People with fingers that look like sausages suffer from a serious medical condition and should seek medical attention if it lasts more than four hours.

 

Maybe I'll actually look at the box when I go to the Lego store today instead of just ignoring it.

[El Guapo]

So to summarize:

-A few people made good money QF this set when it was released because those 10,000 people that approved this set were too slow to order it

-The set has has horrible sales since its release as evidenced by its sales numbers on eBay.  Even after a 50% off sale it still lingered in EU and would not die while Hobbit's LM sold out in hours

-The set is retired in Europe. Only people buying this turkey now are Slickdealers thinking they can flip it or new AFOLs who see it as good pieces for the price.

-It may go above MSRP eventually, but your money would be much better invested in almost anything else from Mixels to Chima

-People with fingers that look like sausages suffer from a serious medical condition and should seek medical attention if it lasts more than four hours.

 

Maybe I'll actually look at the box when I go to the Lego store today instead of just ignoring it.

Ha ha...well if you are going to the Downtown Disney store, it is pretty much impossible to ignore...since it occupies every square inch of the "exclusives" shelf.  "Oh look, a Pet Shop...let me see how many.  Just....have...to....move...these 47 exosuits...there.  Oh, there's 2."

[newbie77]

Imagine yourself 6 months from now saying i could have bought 1 ecto for every 2 of these stupid exo-suits.

This is a value pit.  Less than 1 of these sell a day on ebay.  A total of 10 sold in the whole month of June on ebay.  The demand is basically zero. 

 

 

TLG really went overboard on this one and the  series 3 mixels . just so much that the supply must be really really huge. 

i won't go far to say vilifying BTTF ... i honestly never thought that it would explode in value so fast :).

i am not sure if its actually being sold or sellers are just raising prices. { haven't had enough time to look @ the old data and compare }

if its like 10221 which is that i still see the same number of sellers but at higher prices. it could just mean two things

a. either the prices are being raised but product not moving at all

b. sellers are rotating. i.e. price increase more sellers coming in.. 

some combination of (a) and (b) either way unless we see massive drop in number of sellers prices won't sustain in longer term.

BTTF still had over 150+ sellers. while 10221 over 55 sellers. pretty much the same in last 5 months. 

[ravenb99]

TLG really went overboard on this one and the  series 3 mixels . just so much that the supply must be really really huge. 

i won't go far to say vilifying BTTF ... i honestly never thought that it would explode in value so fast :).

i am not sure if its actually being sold or sellers are just raising prices. { haven't had enough time to look @ the old data and compare }

if its like 10221 which is that i still see the same number of sellers but at higher prices. it could just mean two things

a. either the prices are being raised but product not moving at all

b. sellers are rotating. i.e. price increase more sellers coming in.. 

some combination of (a) and (b) either way unless we see massive drop in number of sellers prices won't sustain in longer term.

BTTF still had over 150+ sellers. while 10221 over 55 sellers. pretty much the same in last 5 months. 

yet mixels 3 has rebounded quite well and outsells mixels 4 sets 2x-3x volume and goes for less than $5 difference per set than what 4 does but were cheaper to obtain overall than 4.

so moral of the story, still can make money on them in a few months.

Some things also appear more limited than they really are.  After what seemed like an abundance of series 3 a lot stayed away from series 4.  Yet when the last mixel clearance of 98 cents went on multiple stores had 500-1000 series 4's left.  Now every walmart has 4 cases of series 4 on the shelves untouched.

So can't always go by appearances either.

Kind of how you noticed about the reds in series 4.  While the 2 other sets appeared to sell quicker based on stock outs, it turned out the reds outsell the other 2 by a landslide in the online market.

Edited August 14, 2015 by ravenb99
added more

[dcdfan]

Imagine yourself 6 months from now saying i could have bought 1 ecto for every 2 of these stupid exo-suits.

This is a value pit.  Less than 1 of these sell a day on ebay.  A total of 10 sold in the whole month of June on ebay.  The demand is basically zero. 

 

 

125 so far sold on eBay/Target today.

Edited August 14, 2015 by dcdfan

[I am Niko]

125 so far sold on eBay/Target today.

Looks like about half of those are resellers (5 qty orders).

[dcdfan]

Looks like about half of those are resellers (5 qty orders).

Yup. Kinda feel bad for the guy that bought 4 last night @ full price.

[Guest]

Exo Suit did not have a hugely popular movie trilogy in the 80s.

[stephen_rockefeller]

i still go back to my history point.  we haven't had a CUUSOO / Ideas set bomb yet.  can this be the first.  heck, even the heavily criticized and nicely discounted   BTTF DeLorean set is doing well.

 

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/cagrbytheme.cfm

IDEAS CAGR= 54.43%

CAGR Values =
21100-1: Shinkai 6500 Submarine = 61.06%
21101-1: Hayabusa = 42.88%
21102-1: Minecraft Micro World = 7.81% (yeah, this might be the first dud but it might be caused by the recent sets after it became a theme. this isn't the lone Minecraft set anymore).
1103-1: The DeLorean Time Machine = 45.57%

 

This theme has been like picking a Pixar film to bomb.  They didn't have their first review really until Cars 2 (12th film release) which still made decent money. ^.

 

Film	Rotten Tomatoes	Metacritic[27]
Toy Story	100%[29]	92/100
A Bug's Life	92%[30]	77/100
Toy Story 2	100%[31]	88/100
Monsters, Inc.	96%[32]	78/100
Finding Nemo	99%[33]	90/100
The Incredibles	97%[34]	90/100
Cars	74%[35]	73/100
Ratatouille	96%[36]	96/100
WALL-E	96%[37]	94/100
Up	98%[38]	88/100
Toy Story 3	99%[39]	92/100
Cars 2	39%[40]	57/100
Brave	78%[41]	69/100
Monsters University	78%[42]	65/100
Inside Out	98%[43]	94/

 

 

 

 

I don't care for this point of view at all.......makes way too much sense and you also backed your view with some numbers.

[jaisonline]

I don't care for this point of view at all.......makes way too much sense and you also backed your view with some numbers.

 

i hear ya and understand / respect your point of view. 

some of us have been high on this set since day 1. some of those people are now either still high or considered this set doomed.  i'm prob in the minority that is still sticking with it. 

i'm rolling the dice based on the history of the IDEAS theme (and it's following by AFOLs)  it helps my current stash was purchased using using money made from flipping many of these in Aug 2014.  also.'praying' this is one of those sets that sometimes the avg person doesn't know what they want until it's too late (no longer sold at retail). 

time will tell...

[redghostx]

 

i hear ya and understand / respect your point of view. 

some of us have been high on this set since day 1. some of those people are now either still high or considered this set doomed.  i'm prob in the minority that is still sticking with it. 

i'm rolling the dice based on the history of the IDEAS theme (and it's following by AFOLs)  it helps my current stash was purchased using using money made from flipping many of these in Aug 2014.  also.'praying' this is one of those sets that sometimes the avg person doesn't know what they want until it's too late (no longer available at retail). 

time will tell...

I think that this set will end up seeing gains, but it lacks the licensing aspect that the DeLorean had and that will really hamper growth.  People from the 80s clamor more for nostalgic licensed things, than they do classic space.  Classic space is a niche market and has nice sets, but nothing that really has appreciated in value compared to other 25-30 year old themes or sets.  I can point out a DeLorean to almost anyone 30-50 years old, that was raised in North America, and each person will know that it is from BTTF.  Conversely, my friends have no idea what an exo suit is or what it supposed to represent.

[Migration]

 

i hear ya and understand / respect your point of view. 

some of us have been high on this set since day 1. some of those people are now either still high or considered this set doomed.  i'm prob in the minority that is still sticking with it. 

i'm rolling the dice based on the history of the IDEAS theme (and it's following by AFOLs)  it helps my current stash was purchased using using money made from flipping many of these in Aug 2014.  also.'praying' this is one of those sets that sometimes the avg person doesn't know what they want until it's too late (no longer available at retail). 

time will tell...

this set will do fine long term. People around here are put off by it because it didn't turn into the next Rover overnight, and many got burned by it. It is unique enough that once it's been gone a while people will want it. I had two left over from the QFLL fun that I didn't sell in time and picked up a few more with the mark down. 

[Bold-Arrow]

The bigger question is : how was Ed beaten in the prediction game ?!? 

[jaisonline]

this is one of the those sets can go either way.  valid stances can be made for "yay" or "nay".

I think that this set will end up seeing gains, but it lacks the licensing aspect that the DeLorean had and that will really hamper growth.  People from the 80s clamor more for nostalgic licensed things, than they do classic space.  Classic space is a niche market and has nice sets, but nothing that really has appreciated in value compared to other 25-30 year old themes or sets.  I can point out a DeLorean to almost anyone 30-50 years old, that was raised in North America, and each person will know that it is from BTTF.  Conversely, my friends have no idea what an exo suit is or what it supposed to represent.

this set will do fine long term. People around here are put off by it because it didn't turn into the next Rover overnight, and many got burned by it. It is unique enough that once it's been gone a while people will want it. I had two left over from the QFLL fun that I didn't sell in time and picked up a few more with the mark down. 

[colossus]

Well I went to Anaheim Lego store and unfortunately my laziness this week caused me to miss out on picking on some more Lonely Mountains.

I only had 1 Ecto-1 and somehow my very young kids know what Ghost Busters were so I decided I would get another set.  Ecto-1 and Exo Suit combined almost perfectly to just tip over $75 to grab a Pirate set (which I did get all month because of Life happening).

So if you're near a Lego store consider picking up a Exto-1 set if you want to grab one last Pirate set (today is the last day). $49.99 + $27.99

Stock update - Anaheim had about 5 PS. Plenty of Tumblers, Mixers, S1, T1, Minis, Ties. Not a single Hobbit item nor Orthanc so it's pretty much gone - LM's spot was filled with Ferrari and nobody even looked at it.  No EV, TB, SOH, PC (somebody was even calling in about PC).

I stopped by a Target on the way home - picked up about 90 S14 CMFs and will teach my kids to smoosh muhaha.  You want Square Foot you're going to have to work for it.

[Val-E]

Every theme has winners and losers and it is good that people get a reality check once in a while as it teaches us to be  more prudent on future purchases.

In the end it´s a low priced set which are always riskier buys so the only people who have got really burnt are those that went all in on it after the QFLL window.

If the same were to happen to PS or DS then that would really shake up the reseller market..........

[Frank Brickowski]

I used my Exo purchases to also get several free Mini Cooper Polybags. This alone makes Exo a non-loser set for me.

[dcdfan]

Amazon has PM now @ $27.99

[jaisonline]

too bad the buying limit is 2 per week... at least targets (and lego) allow 5 per order.  nevertheless, the price match is very nice and will help clear these out

Amazon has PM now @ $27.99

 

[TheOrcKing]

Between being the first completely original design to be released as a CUUSOO/IDEAS set by a master MOCer of established renown who even helped go over the final design process alongside LEGO's own designers and the only set (possibly ever) to include two astronauts based on the classic Space line in never done before green attire, this will find its marks however niche that may be. I suppose seeing how the characters are 'classic' styled yet the build is far from can seem like a contradiction and ends up posing an interesting conundrum.

[thoroakenfelder]

If Lego themselves discount a set, especially in North America, there is a good reason for it.

It´s not a rare set and not hugely desirable but that may all change when a future wave of AFOLs come ot of their dark ages.

Quite a few resellers went in deep on this thinking it would be Mars Rover part 2 so it will take a long time for that stock to be used up.

If LEGO ever revisits classic space, I could see this set picking up. But, that's unlikely.