10224 - Town Hall

[dcdfan]

I have a fear that this set may take a hit if GB HQ comes to fruition...

[GhostDad]

What I was nostalgic about was (in my memory anyway) this set proceeded quickly from limit 2, to OOS, to Sold Out. Then sold out at retailers, then - for about 2 months or so - reappeared here and there (pretty much everywhere like Walmart, Amazon, Target) sometimes stayed in stock for several hours giving investors ample time to order what they wanted, and then disappeared and stayed that way. No "Temporarily OOS... check back next summer".  No "We're making more..." Just a quick, relatively clean exit.  That's the way I remember it.  What's unhealthy about that?

Yeah, back when Limit 2 meant something.  Parisian Restaurant anyone?

 

[hannibal]

Lowest on ebay UK now is £420!!!! It's amazing what scarcity does to the human brain....and to the wallet. 

[Ciglione]

Do not like what I am seeing about this set right now. Supply is increasing and price is dropping. Even with Xmas approaching. Seems not to be as scarce as we thought?

[exciter1]

Do not like what I am seeing about this set right now. Supply is increasing and price is dropping. Even with Xmas approaching. Seems not to be as scarce as we thought?

Did you not see the articles a couple years ago about the holidays not being nice to exclusives?

[ISO8T0]

10 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Do not like what I am seeing about this set right now. Supply is increasing and price is dropping. Even with Xmas approaching. Seems not to be as scarce as we thought?

So you're saying I should keep an eye on Amazon.de?

[eyebrow40]

past 5 sold listings (MISB) on eBay.de: 477, 470, 416, 451, 432 ... i think that's pretty good for a set that retired one year ago!

[Ciglione]

5 minutes ago, pstebbing said:

So you're saying I should keep an eye on Amazon.de?

No... not really. But this set MISB seems less scarce as I expected it would be. HH seems more rare. 

When I look at the dutch Craig's List there are many listings and the price is dropping due to these listings cause people are undercutting eachother. Sales are slow as well. With Xmas approaching I expected more demand and at least a slight increase in price. 

9 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

 

Did you not see the articles a couple years ago about the holidays not being nice to exclusives?

No... I am sorry. I guess I did not get the memo.

What does the article say exactly?

[xeeeej]

20 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Do not like what I am seeing about this set right now. Supply is increasing and price is dropping. Even with Xmas approaching. Seems not to be as scarce as we thought?

Team QFLL wins again.

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, xeeeej said:

Team QFLL wins again.

Yeah... where is Darin when you need him?

[Ensche]

And, once again, please don't panic... you always tend to!

Patience, after holiday season prices will climb again.

[ZULU]

11 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

No... not really. But this set MISB seems less scarce as I expected it would be. HH seems more rare. 

When I look at the dutch Craig's List there are many listings and the price is dropping due to these listings cause people are undercutting eachother. Sales are slow as well. With Xmas approaching I expected more demand and at least a slight increase in price. 

No... I am sorry. I guess I did not get the memo.

What does the article say exactly?

It shouldn't come as a surprise that there's hidden stock all over the place on the more recent sets.

ONe fears how many T1 Campers there have been truly stored in those closets...

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, Ensche said:

And, once again, please don't panic... you always tend to!

Patience, after holiday season prices will climb again.

I am not starting a panic. I am just noticing. And if historically the holiday season is not the best time for exclusives that would explain alot. 

[exciter1]

20 minutes ago, Ciglione said: Do not like what I am seeing about this set right now. Supply is increasing and price is dropping. Even with Xmas approaching. Seems not to be as scarce as we thought?

Team QFLL wins again.

...and we are thanking you for it.

[Ensche]

Yes, it explains the slight decrease for this time each year.

It's more like "let's watch the cheap ones go now, perhaps more scarce next year!"

[Val-E]

So let´s see - pre Xmas is not a good time to sell exclusives, but Spring through to Autumn neither. Seems like finding the right season to buy oysters.

SSD, R2 and HH have been appreciating just fine recently so it seems that the modular market in general is a bit tired out right now.

[trekgate502]

I sold out of all my town hall a few months ago and have been buying up 30320 with the profits

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, trekgate502 said:

I sold out of all my town hall a few months ago and have been buying up 30320 with the profits

Smart move, they´ll soon be trading 1:1

[Bluetoon]

1 hour ago, Ciglione said:

I am not starting a panic. I am just noticing. And if historically the holiday season is not the best time for exclusives that would explain alot. 

Here are all the TH coming to market this month

 

and this is the rest of you guys holding back in disbelief, not willing to sell... 

 

 

 

 

[Val-E]

So you´re saying a Scotsman wears Lego under his kilt? That has clarified so many things for me now.

[Fcbarcelona101]

2 hours ago, Ciglione said:

 

No... I am sorry. I guess I did not get the memo.

What does the article say exactly?

Here you go: http://community.brickpicker.com/blog/community-lego-blogs/the-lego-december-effect/

 

Might revisit this next year once the data comes in.

[Ciglione]

9 hours ago, Fcbarcelona101 said:

Here you go: http://community.brickpicker.com/blog/community-lego-blogs/the-lego-december-effect/

 

Might revisit this next year once the data comes in.

Thanks for reposting the article. 

So it more or less confirms what I was noticing. More listings means the average selling price will drop. But on the other hand this will most probably mean more sales so after the holiday period there will be fewer left. So the price can rise again. 

[ZULU]

29 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Thanks for reposting the article. 

So it more or less confirms what I was noticing. More listings means the average selling price will drop. But on the other hand this will most probably mean more sales so after the holiday period there will be fewer left. So the price can rise again. 

Retired modulars are for adult collectors. They shouldn't be so season sensitive unless it's a surprise Christmas gift. If I want a retired item, I buy it, no matter what date of the year;

The reason for more listings could be finance: investors locking in profits (smaller than should be) to reinvest in 'better' sets. Or just cash- constrained investors looking for some breathing space.

Selling TH (or HH, FB etc) is exactly what you shouldn't do, unless you're afraid of remakes. The larger the lego community, the better the retired classics will do. Last thing on my mind, is to sell my best sets to reinvest in popular (maybe never retiring) current items... FBarcelona has written excellent articles on the timing to resell top sets. I suggest everybody to look them up.

Take care

[chipbee]

No idea why people need to panic. This is a retired set, and THE largest modular set to date. It is a townhall, and any lego modular town needs a townhall. It is also one of very few large set with a wedding couple scene. So what if the price dips a little during every christmas period? It will just continue its steady climb year after year.

[Ed Mack]

There are ups and downs in any marketplace. In the LEGO secondary market, prices on the whole, usually rise in the Fall and early Winter and drop after the New Year.

My theory on why some large and expensive exclusives drop when they should be rising is based on the new wave of resellers. This is a newer phenomena. Year ago, almost all LEGO sets would rise though the Holiday season, but I believe now the current makeup of resellers is to flip for quick profits, instead of holding for long term gain. Many new resellers get anxious holding a set past a year, so they sell these big sets that they made some quick money on to lock up profits. Over time, after more exclusives are resold, the prices continue to increase at a solid pace.

If people would just look at the history of some of the current $1000 sets out there, you would see it was a slow climb for the most part, over yearS, not months. People selling their Town Halls right now is understandable, but my sets increase in value long term with each early sale so I really won't complain.