10224 - Town Hall

[Val-E]

People are gonna be bundling thesee with 41999 crawlers soon.

[Val-E]

On 10/12/2015 at 2:42 PM, Ciglione said:

True... let the price go down to 200 euro and I might buy a few.

You may not have long to wait.....

http://www.ebay.es/itm/LEGO-10224-TOWN-HALL-NUEVO-/252201526746?hash=item3ab861e5da:g:xcQAAOSwnH1WZEXd&autorefresh=true

[Ciglione]

7 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

You may not have long to wait.....

http://www.ebay.es/itm/LEGO-10224-TOWN-HALL-NUEVO-/252201526746?hash=item3ab861e5da:g:xcQAAOSwnH1WZEXd&autorefresh=true

Yeah... cheapest BIN on Ebay Germany is 400 euro now. And supply does not seem to get less.

[Val-E]

There´s a few auctions that will end below 400 soon too as sellers become impatient when there buy it now is sitting there for months.I can see where this is going, the price will fall back down to 350 is which is just low enough for new investors to buy, basing their strategy on Green Grocer prices, and the rollercoaster ride will start again.

[Ciglione]

6 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

There´s a few auctions that will end below 400 soon too as sellers become impatient when there buy it now is sitting there for months.I can see where this is going, the price will fall back down to 350 is which is just low enough for new investors to buy, basing their strategy on Green Grocer prices, and the rollercoaster ride will start again.

I think the price will drop to a point where the ordinary collector is willing to buy it. From there it will increase in a slow and responsible pace.

[Val-E]

So that means it will fall in line with GE and Fire Brigade prices.

I think that resellers need to be smarter and start removing their listings - with a glut of them on the market people can spot the deflationary trend a mile off. Why buy now if it will be cheaper next month. It can´t officially be considered a bubble as price is still well above RRP, but it does have some of the characteristics of one.

And I could not resist making the comparison with our old friend Mr. Crawler who is also in a difficult period of his life.

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Limited-Edition-4x4-Crawler-41999-Brand-New-Sealed-Retired-Product-/262178449550?hash=item3d0b0da88e:g:wcwAAOSwsFpWTL3G

Edited December 13, 2015 by valenciaeric

[fossilrock]

I"m wondering if Star Wars is just sucking people's attention right now, and so the modulars are taking a backseat.  

Give it another year or so, and if the new lego movie does showcase modular buildings again, which isn't a farfetched idea then I think you'll see a spike again.  But, I do think a lot of attention from AFOL's wallets is on star wars.  I don't think it's all doom and gloom, fellas.  

[Val-E]

We accept that it is the "wrong time" of the year and that some sets take a "rest". Next year 1Q will tell us a lot more about how it will go but there is no use in having 100 listings up when no one is biting - alleged scarcity drove the price up, oversupply will only take it down. We have seen that with so many sets in the past.

[Val-E]

23 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I"m wondering if Star Wars is just sucking people's attention right now, and so the modulars are taking a backseat.  

Give it another year or so, and if the new lego movie does showcase modular buildings again, which isn't a farfetched idea then I think you'll see a spike again.  But, I do think a lot of attention from AFOL's wallets is on star wars.  I don't think it's all doom and gloom, fellas.  

If we have to rely on  Lego Movies to showcase stuff then we are all in trouble!  Ciglione will no doubt be praying for a time travel scene where Benny travels to the Wild West and meets the Lone Ranger then goes forward to drive a Unimog through the wall of Arkham Asylum.

Edited December 13, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Guest]

So the end users are about as enamored with th after eol as they were before. Which is to say not at all. Glad I sold all but one of mine to speculators when it was over 600

[BearCrash]

54 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

If we have to rely on  Lego Movies to showcase stuff then we are all in trouble!  Ciglione will no doubt be praying for a time travel scene where Benny travels to the Wild West and meets the Lone Ranger then goes forward to drive a Unimog through the wall of Arkham Asylum.

That would help me get rid of a couple of sets as well

[conceptmachine]

For most common folk, they wait until after their taxes are done before they make "me" purchases.  It makes more sense to put higher end sets on thr market after the new year.  Personally don't care where they go because I'm not heavily invested in modulars.

[cladner]

patience will be rewarded with this set.  its been gone barely a year.  there is bp blog article discussing an established pattern of modulars and other large exclusive's taking a price hit at this time of the year when resellers come out of hibernation.  there is no doubt that influx of sellers will stretch out the x axis on the growth curve.  still, at some point, you get to the seller's market where the people holding don't have to sell, and have figured out how much they want and are willing to wait it out.  

the seller's market is when there is significant price appreciation in a short amount of time. there will be a market for this set and there will be people paying top dollar.  you have to ask yourself are you willing to wait it out and is it worth it to get to goal.  given the remarkably short run of this set and sudden disappearance, the answer for me is yes.  

this recent trend points out that its not always up and to the right and there is likely a seasonal seller bubble more than accomodating any seasonal uptick in demand of what is still going to be a limited demand. only so many folks shelling out hundreds for a lego set.   some folks have to sell.   the price goes down.  

no discussion of a bubble over in the taj mahal thread.  it will be interesting to see how TH is doing in 2018 when I would imagine we are getting into the seller market phase.

Edited December 13, 2015 by cladner

[KShine]

This set stands out as the biggest hype driven set to date (I don't believe any other one would even come close) - It's initial post EOL performance was absurd.

Edited December 13, 2015 by KShine

[Val-E]

I´d be interested to know which other sets have ever fallen back 150 euros from their peak value. I know that % wise RI took a huge hit but its cost was so low the actual amount was only 35 euros.

[Seal Cutter]

Big sets retiring suddenly often show an initial price spike that dies down later. This is naturally due to people being prepared to pay more over MRSP just after a set mysteriously disappears, as they panic, having no knowledge of whether each item they see listed could be "the last one". Once enough of the panic people who are screaming "I don't have one!" have bought one, then normal service resumes. Normal service being the price reverting to the time-price curve trend that would have come about without the panic. In many cases this involves a price drop.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Seal Cutter

[Crustybeaver]

Am I missing something here? The last two Town Halls sold on UK ebay went for £370 - £380, that's well in excess of double RRP.... For a set that was strongly disliked I'd say it's performing exceptionally well.

[Val-E]

It seems to be scarcer in the Uk than the rest of Europe - either that or sellers are keeping them back.

[tractorboy]

There seems to be a lot of auctions for this set on ebay recently. Probably just people getting some money together for Christmas, and it has slowed its growth. I'm sure in the New Year we'll see it continue its climb. There are only so many out there and its getting less every week.

[fossilrock]

4 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

If we have to rely on  Lego Movies to showcase stuff then we are all in trouble!  Ciglione will no doubt be praying for a time travel scene where Benny travels to the Wild West and meets the Lone Ranger then goes forward to drive a Unimog through the wall of Arkham Asylum.

That's mostly the American way, and I think it works well, if you are adept to recognize these trends then you should be able to make some good money on things like this.  I think it works well with most movie related merchandise.  When it's in the public's eye, expect a higher demand then when it's not.

[Ciglione]

5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

That's mostly the American way, and I think it works well, if you are adept to recognize these trends then you should be able to make some good money on things like this.  I think it works well with most movie related merchandise.  When it's in the public's eye, expect a higher demand then when it's not.

Then let us hope the new Brick Bank will put some attention on the other modulars as well. 

Can't we agree that TH is not as scarce as we thought it was? Most that have been sold after EOL are bought by resellers. Thinking it would go to 1000 euro in a year. So they all stayed sealed. Which is a bad thing. They need to be bought by end-users and get their place on chimneys and cities.

[fossilrock]

8 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Then let us hope the new Brick Bank will put some attention on the other modulars as well. 

Can't we agree that TH is not as scarce as we thought it was? Most that have been sold after EOL are bought by resellers. Thinking it would go to 1000 euro in a year. So they all stayed sealed. Which is a bad thing. They need to be bought by end-users and get their place on chimneys and cities.

I think it will help.  I notice in the minifigure world especially that when a new line first comes out, those first few weeks, there is a spike in demand with the older retired lines.  Then during the other 3 months, sales can be flat to non-existent.  So, next January, i'd suspect will be good for things like Modulars, and minifigures...

And interestingly…. I do plan on buying a brickbank and palace cinema next month.  This month, though?  All about Star Wars mostly.

Edited December 13, 2015 by fossilrock

[Guest]

20 hours ago, cladner said:

patience will be rewarded with this set.  its been gone barely a year.  there is bp blog article discussing an established pattern of modulars and other large exclusive's taking a price hit at this time of the year when resellers come out of hibernation.  there is no doubt that influx of sellers will stretch out the x axis on the growth curve.  still, at some point, you get to the seller's market where the people holding don't have to sell, and have figured out how much they want and are willing to wait it out.  

the seller's market is when there is significant price appreciation in a short amount of time. there will be a market for this set and there will be people paying top dollar.  you have to ask yourself are you willing to wait it out and is it worth it to get to goal.  given the remarkably short run of this set and sudden disappearance, the answer for me is yes.  

this recent trend points out that its not always up and to the right and there is likely a seasonal seller bubble more than accomodating any seasonal uptick in demand of what is still going to be a limited demand. only so many folks shelling out hundreds for a lego set.   some folks have to sell.   the price goes down.  

no discussion of a bubble over in the taj mahal thread.  it will be interesting to see how TH is doing in 2018 when I would imagine we are getting into the seller market phase.

at what time of year? The price started dropping in July

18 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Then let us hope the new Brick Bank will put some attention on the other modulars as well. 

Can't we agree that TH is not as scarce as we thought it was? Most that have been sold after EOL are bought by resellers. Thinking it would go to 1000 euro in a year. So they all stayed sealed. Which is a bad thing. They need to be bought by end-users and get their place on chimneys and cities.

end user don't want it. That's why Lego retired it early.

[fossilrock]

I read the post, and he said 2018... pretty clear, if you read it.

The sky is always falling, isn't it?  Jeez.  What a horrible way to go through life.

[Val-E]

So, any other set that has taken a 150 euro negative hit in its growth cycle? Let´s open the field to a 100 euros if no takers. I´m thinking 7965 and 10199 are thereabouts but remakes were the explanation.

Edited December 14, 2015 by valenciaeric