Retiring Soon - open speculation

[fossilrock]

Right now, I think there's a few things that lego is doing very wrong.  First and foremost is they are producing too many sets.  They need to cut back on the amount they are producing by about 30 to 40%.  I look at the Star Wars line specifically - half of the sets produced since the Force Awakens came out were unnecessary, or just overall sloppy.  I look at what's coming down the pipe in January and the Summer and there is little that makes me overly excited, and I just know these sets will be underwhelming.  Too many times they are just pumping out lackluster sets with the only catch being an exclusive minifigure.  I'd rather see them produce better quality sets and increase the minifigures they are offering by adding a few more to each set.  The force Awakens line could have been cut down by 2 to 3 sets, and those minifigures added to other sets.  That would have made the overall line more appealing.

Secondly, their inflation on pricing is getting to the point where it's making sets sit on the shelf longer.  If you go to amazon, you'll notice even the new Rogue One sets are about 25% off right now.  Maybe that's where the RRP of those sets should have been set. As the RRP of these sets rise, I think we will just see them sit on the shelves longer and longer.  Lego needs to rethink their strategy..

It truly does come down to a few things out of our control.  Lego's RRP is too high, and they are overproducing too many lackluster sets.  Until that changes, I almost expect this continual slide downhill.

[KShine]

Just now, Mhd747 said:

@KShine, @fossilrock, @exciter1

Say for some spectacular reason, some of the 2016 retiree sets perform well (reach 20/30% above RRP by Feb), would any of you change your attitude to the current state of investing or would it remain the same?

Interesting to hear from more experienced sellers who have been investing for the past few years on their views, will it pull some people back in? Or would most people just call that an anomly and still not invest.

Some may (and should) perform well, but most likely won't.

Many "sure things" have failed - so being lucky and picking the right sets (you do need luck at this point, much more than you need smarts) will not outweigh the majority of fails.

You are going to have many sellers who would have normally waited to sell at higher prices - no longer believe that things could get any better.

Saying to themselves:

[minicoopers11]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

I am also quite sated.

I wish I could be excited about the soon to be retiring sets - I just know/expect that they will then be spending the next year or two sitting with the other retired sets, mostly failing to achieve substantial gains. I suppose that it's great if you are just looking to get a few bucks profit, but to me - I just see piles and piles of disappointment.

What I would find exciting would be to miss out on a set, to be able to say how I should have known to load up on a set, and regret not doing it. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening - but I would really love to be wrong.

41060 Disney Princess Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom

I'm guessing you missed that? 

[mauro23]

33 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Here here!  I'm in the same mindset.  It's really disappointing as I like some of the sets like EV, SC, and PS, along with themes like The Force Awakens, Scooby, and JW, but I just can't pull the trigger on buying anymore.  And I think we aren't alone, because here in the States we are not seeing a large phase out yet.  Many of these retiring sets are still sitting around on many sites, and we know they are retiring thanks to the notifications in Europe - yet the swarm of buying out all of the stock isn't happening, so I think a lot of people see the writing on the wall. 

The signs are showing that the days of reselling lego and making more than 2x back are nearing their end. Previous years, I would purchase a lot of sets around this time of year.  This year, i'm not adding a single set to my investment portfolio over the next few months.  I'll reconvene in april during the next round of clearance, but until then, i'm just selling what I already have in my stock...most of which is already retired.  I think as I sell it off, i'm not going to put the profits back into lego this go around. 

I have another opinion - you have to choose carefully. SC and SOH are a very good investment, not sure about EV, all Ideas sets beside Wall-E and perhaps Ecto-1 don't won't make a good profit in future.

[iahawks550]

It's a perfect time to trim down the re-sellers. Many are jumping ship and that's fine with me. I'll hold while they dump for 5% gains.

[exciter1]

2 minutes ago, minicoopers11 said:

41060 Disney Princess Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom

I'm guessing you missed that? 

I paid RRP for several. Doh!

[Guest TabbyBoy]

In the UK, LEGO's prices can only get higher. It was only mentioned on the news recently that model railway retailers in the UK have to hike up prices buy around 10% to account for more expensive imports. A 10% rise in LEGO prices could seriously harm the brand in the UK and at that point, I may no longer buy and just sell what I have. On the other hand it does make it easier for UK resellers to sell stock to Europe and beyond due to the £ being on its arse. I used to sell to the UK only and have now opened up to Worldwide using eBay's GSP service. Not great but, at least eBay are responsible for the international part of shipping.

[Bold-Arrow]

8 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

I have another opinion - you have to choose carefully. SC and SOH are a very good investment, not sure about EV, all Ideas sets beside Wall-E and perhaps Ecto-1 don't won't make a good profit in future.

After the panic buy of SC some 2 months ago , and the never selling out discount on Amazon , I wouldn't be too optimistic . 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

What I would find exciting would be to miss out on a set, to be able to say how I should have known to load up on a set, and regret not doing it. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening - but I would really love to be wrong.

There are going to be some suprises this year, it all depends what you consider a surprise to be, though.....

[mauro23]

10 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

After the panic buy of SC some 2 months ago , and the never selling out discount on Amazon , I wouldn't be too optimistic . 

You forget that we are on different continent as you are... 

We had never bigger discounts on that and the unique shop in Germany who sells both is S&H...

[fossilrock]

27 minutes ago, iahawks550 said:

It's a perfect time to trim down the re-sellers. Many are jumping ship and that's fine with me. I'll hold while they dump for 5% gains.

It's still going to be a two to three year cycle before it swings around again, and that's a big if.

[asharerin]

9 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

It's still going to be a two to three year cycle before it swings around again, and that's a big if.

It is no secret this was a big downyear for TLG. Dimensions did not pan out like they had hoped and there was no new movie. This was the worst sales year they have had in a long, long time. Retailers are scrambling to discount to move product. The new SW movies are not generating merchandise sales like many companies had hoped for. It is just a different consumer market today than it was back in the 80s. There will be no article about Lego shortages this year lol.

I think the Lego Batman movie is going to be huge and make Lego relevant again in 2017. I really think they knocked it out of the park with those new Batman movie sets. I think Assembly Square is going to generate alot of new fans for the modular line and even those sets getting a cameo in Assembly Square. TLG understand where they went wrong but it is not an easy ship to turn around quickly. Next year we are getting the rehashed UCS snowspeeder and ISD so SW is going to suck yet again at least until 2018. I really hope the new fairground set rumors are false but we will have to wait and see. As resellers we will want to be ultra selective on what to buy and the price the next 2-3 years. I think when TLG comes out on the other side they and us are going to be very profitable again.

I will go deep on 1 or 2 sets the next 2-3 years but that is it. Diversify into other toy brands and categories to keep cash flow going but Lego will be back I am confident of it

[Brickbuilder.g]

People that came into this game over the past year will need to wait 2-3 years to make what was usually 6-12 months when holding sets...and for smaller gains... Most will not be able to wait it out.
And as others have said Lego is simply producing too much and there are too many sets. Cutting back on the width and depth of their product by only 10-15% would help a lot however I don't that will happen until at least Q3 of next year.

[Sfcommando14]

16 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

It's still going to be a two to three year cycle before it swings around again, and that's a big if.

Only on the sets "they" targeted.  Tumbler and Red 5 might be an indicator for current exclusives, while first wave TFA sets (Poe's, Kylo Ren's, FOT) and JW might be for the normal line.  But the latter still need to retire, so....

[glucapg]

75919 IR sold out....will we see it again?

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, glucapg said:

75919 IR sold out....will we see it again?

It says retired product now.

[Brickbuilder.g]

Further...I expect at least a 5% drop in sales this holiday season for Lego NA and wouldn't be surprised at all if it hits double digits.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, asharerin said:

 Next year we are getting the rehashed UCS snowspeeder and ISD so SW is going to suck yet again at least until 2018.

Who is your source on UCS ISD?

[asharerin]

10 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Who is your source on UCS ISD?

Just a dream I had

I think the days of having to buy the best sets at the cheapest prices just to generate an anemic return are coming to an end (but will take a few years for the current turds to exit the pipeline unfortunately for those starting in 2015 or this year).

[KShine]

1 minute ago, asharerin said:

I think the days of having to buy the best sets at the cheapest prices just to generate an anemic return are coming to an end (but will take a few years for the current turds to exit the pipeline unfortunately for those starting in 2015 or this year).

Are the turds that you are referring to LEGO sets, or the horde of new sellers? Although I suppose they both could qualify.

 

[exciter1]

Just now, Val-E said:

Who is your source on UCS ISD?

Sorry, this excites me.  He didn't actually specify the UCS tag on it, but that would be great.  A new ISD of some sort is probably in the pipeline.

[fossilrock]

Here's an example... Just going by Star Wars sets (combined polybags, sets, buildables, microfighters, etc) - in 2011 - 33 sets, in 2013 it jumped up to 44, in 2015 - 65, and this year is 67.  Next year 42 are now slated, which i'm sure will eventually go up into the 60's. 

This is prime example of where they need to scale back.  It's evident to me they are producing too much - and the market is oversaturated.  Granted, I get there are new movies, but truly less is more in this case.

Yet, we enter into 2017 with another landspeeder, another desert skiff, another set with qui-gon, obi and maul..  All of those are unnecessary. And I see no future potential with any of them as an investment..

[mauro23]

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

Yet, we enter into 2017 with another landspeeder, another desert skiff, another set with qui-gon, obi and maul..  All of those are unnecessary. And I see no future potential with any of them as an investment..

LEGO does not remake sets for us for investment purpose but for their selling purpose... ;-)

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

LEGO does not remake sets for us for investment purpose but for their selling purpose... ;-)

Winner, winner chicken dinner. 

Although, it's a razor's edge for Lego. They can, in part, charge high prices for their product because of perceived value. Oversaturation damages value perception. 

[fossilrock]

8 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

LEGO does not remake sets for us for investment purpose but for their selling purpose... ;-)

I know that, but my point is that I wouldn't invest in them because all of those sets were recently released.  With each new rehash, the wheel gets more and more stale.