Retiring Soon - open speculation

[king156]

Im starting to worry if I should be putting any more money into lego now what with everyone saying that the late PS sales have been from resellers buying them all up /:

 

​

[Val-E]

Depends what you put money into. The longer a set has been available, the slower it usually appreciates unless it is an absolute best seller like 7965. Remember that in the days of Amazon discounts, people were getting PS and TB a lot cheaper so they can sell out much eaiser.

I would not be paying full price for PS or TB unless they are EOL.

[fossilrock]

I'm becoming more and more supportive of the bans and limits that are being imposed by many of the retail outlets, simply because it helps minimize massive hoarding, and the quick flipping mentality that can artificially inflate prices.  Scarcity is a law when it comes to supply and demand, and a market is artificially inflated when 5000 out of every 6000 sets are mostly in the hands of 100 people and they are intentionally jacking up the prices.  When you see 50 people saying they have horded 50 echto 1s, I begin to throw some caution to the wind on going beyond more than having a few.  Cutting your loses on a few, and losing out on 20 to 3o dollars is much more pallatable, then cutting your loses on thousands of dollars.  I'd suspect it's going to take a while for the market to catch up as thousands try to dump their stock at the end of its life hoping to get rich quick.  Running out and buying 50 death stars, 50 modulars, etc is a real risk.  The thoughts of a new death star would surely throw a monkey wrench into making a killing by hording a ton of them.

The other thing is, always check the sales data on ebay.  It's nice to think that every day 50 people are buying a SSD for 700.00, but that is not reality.   So, those that are sitting on 50 of those, are going to be waiting a while to get all their investment money to pan out at that price. But on the other hand those that had the foresight to stock on a few green grocers sure are making thier money, and that set does sell quite a bit daily at inflated prices.

And I admit, I am just as guilty in that I have horded a few sets. But, while I do set goals of 10 on some sets, once I get over the 5 mark, I tend to stop and step back and think really hard about going further.   I usually impose my own limits and self-control, because while it's nice to think something is going to return 2x your money, the reality is it might not go down that way.

I also will admit, i've never lost money on a set, but, i've been pretty conservative in what I buy and prefer to play the waiting game.  I'm also a small timer, and only see this as a hobby to fuel my son and my lego building habits.  I also don't think the TB will be a bad investment as I doubt that one is heavily horded.  To me the modulars and star wars sets seem to be the most horded.  Only recently have people started going bonkers over hording the TB, and that's because its' at the end of its life.

Edited May 20, 2015 by fossilrock

[biking_tiger]

I'm becoming more and more supportive of the bans and limits that are being imposed by many of the retail outlets, simply because it helps minimize massive hoarding, and the quick flipping mentality that can artificially inflate prices.  Scarcity is a law when it comes to supply and demand, and a market is artificially inflated when 5000 out of every 6000 sets are mostly in the hands of 100 people and they are intentionally jacking up the prices.  When you see 50 people saying they have horded 50 echto 1s, I begin to throw some caution to the wind on going beyond more than having a few.  Cutting your loses on a few, and losing out on 20 to 3o dollars is much more pallatable, then cutting your loses on thousands of dollars.  I'd suspect it's going to take a while for the market to catch up as thousands try to dump their stock at the end of its life hoping to get rich quick.  Running out and buying 50 death stars, 50 modulars, etc is a real risk.  The thoughts of a new death star would surely throw a monkey wrench into making a killing by hording a ton of them.

The other thing is, always check the sales data on ebay.  It's nice to think that every day 50 people are buying a SSD for 700.00, but that is not reality.   In fact over the last month, only 7 of them are shown as being sold at that price on ebay.. So, those that are sitting on 50 of those, are going to be waiting a while to get all their investment money to pan out at that price. But on the other hand those that had the foresight to stock on a few green grocers sure are making thier money, and that set does sell quite a bit daily at inflated prices.

And I admit, I am just as guilty in that I have horded a few sets. But, while I do set goals of 10 on some sets, once I get over the 5 mark, I tend to stop and step back and think really hard about going further.   I usually impose my own limits and self-control, because while it's nice to think something is going to return 2x your money, the reality is it might not go down that way.

I also will admit, i've never lost money on a set, but, i've been pretty conservative in what I buy and prefer to play the waiting game.  I'm also a small timer, and only see this as a hobby to fuel my son and my lego building habits.  I also don't think the TB will be a bad investment as I doubt that one is heavily horded.  To me the modulars and star wars sets seem to be the most horded.  Only recently have people started going bonkers over hording the TB, and that's because its' at the end of its life.

This is pretty much my strategy as well. I'm not as risk-averse as some, but I'm not ready to put all of my eggs in plastic. My goal is to grow some money and roll the grown-up money into longer-term investments with a little less risk. This may mean--shocker--regular old mutual funds and bonds. (gasp) 

[jerryherb]

This is pretty much my strategy as well. I'm not as risk-averse as some, but I'm not ready to put all of my eggs in plastic. My goal is to grow some money and roll the grown-up money into longer-term investments with a little less risk. This may mean--shocker--regular old mutual funds and bonds. (gasp) 

​how about real-estate, not as good % returns as legos for me, but worthwhile 

[biking_tiger]

​how about real-estate, not as good % returns as legos for me, but worthwhile 

​Agreed. We own one rental property with very nice tenants. The landlord game can be a lottery, though. I haven't dabbled in other real estate ventures, but should the opportunity arise...

[jerryherb]

​Agreed. We own one rental property with very nice tenants. The landlord game can be a lottery, though. I haven't dabbled in other real estate ventures, but should the opportunity arise...

​same as legos, cant jump on everything . flips are still good too if you have the cash. 

[Ed Mack]

​Agreed. We own one rental property with very nice tenants. The landlord game can be a lottery, though. I haven't dabbled in other real estate ventures, but should the opportunity arise...

​Rental properties are great if you have tenants that pay and respect your property.  It is your worst nightmare if they don't and destroy your property.  As you said...it is a total crap shoot.

[Darth_Raichu]

​Rental properties are great if you have tenants that pay and respect your property.  It is your worst nightmare if they don't and destroy your property.  As you said...it is a total crap shoot.

​Yep, I have co-workers with rental properties and this was exactly their complaints 

[jerryherb]

​Rental properties are great if you have tenants that pay and respect your property.  It is your worst nightmare if they don't and destroy your property.  As you said...it is a total crap shoot.

​there are tools that help you avoid the issues you mentioned. ive had numerous tenants in my properties and no issues thus far. you need references, background checks, credit history and proof of employment as well as a lease that covers every situation you can think of. you also dont want ot jump on every property you see for sale. they are cheap for a reason, do your research. 2/50 is the rule and keep some money reserve in case you might need it

Edited May 20, 2015 by jerryherb

[king156]

I heard doing up and flipping houses for a quick fix is good lol.

[gregpj]

Do you guys need Jeff to add a Real Estate Forum in the "new" non-Lego investing group?

[brickolodon]

My LEGO store still got TB sets, check yours...its time now, prices keep rising quick.

[Battrax]

I am putting back together a TB set I grabbed from an unmarked lot of tan bricks on eBay (the baseplates roused my suspicion). Sounds like I should keep it for later instead of flipping it once I make sure it is complete!

[mudcatsfan]

I still think the X-Wing is headed out, despite the recent production codes. I think with the new film looming there COULD be a new version Xwing coming, but more likely it will be in minifig scale, not UCS. 

I've gone so far as scooping a few off ebay today at well over retail (around 250 shipped), considering the 5x bonus points and no tax. You get 25 bucks back, and that means its almost the same as a 215 dollar taxed purchase.

anyone still finding these at retail?

I know Target has them at 263 shipped, I wonder for how much longer.

[Deeker]

I have  rental properties in both commercial and residential.  Let me tell you these are not get rich plans or even conducive for most.  Most residential barely spit off much income and the moment you have a tenet not pay or destroy the property you are S.O.L.  The real money comes in appreciation of the property itself, and in most markets that is really minimal. When you take into insurance, taxes and the note you would be lucky to break even if you did a loan with the minimal put down.  Commercial is much better and more lucrative.  You also are more protected.  

Most of these are like an investment in any form.  It should be a return on your money.  If you can get the property cheap or even in foreclosure it helps.  But most likely you will have lots of bills or even repairs soon on these properties.  Don't forget if the roof needs replacing or water heater goes down you are on the line for this.  You better be supper handy or have lots of capital before venturing into this.

Your best bet really for most would be pay off your credit card debt which is costing you 15-22% or your home.  You can't get any return on your money of 15-22% out there, why not keep your money and use for something else.  

Just my 2cents

 

Now on to lego

Any more info on the TOO?

 

[jerryherb]

I have  rental properties in both commercial and residential.  Let me tell you these are not get rich plans or even conducive for most.  Most residential barely spit off much income and the moment you have a tenet not pay or destroy the property you are S.O.L.  The real money comes in appreciation of the property itself, and in most markets that is really minimal. When you take into insurance, taxes and the note you would be lucky to break even if you did a loan with the minimal put down.  Commercial is much better and more lucrative.  You also are more protected.  

Most of these are like an investment in any form.  It should be a return on your money.  If you can get the property cheap or even in foreclosure it helps.  But most likely you will have lots of bills or even repairs soon on these properties.  Don't forget if the roof needs replacing or water heater goes down you are on the line for this.  You better be supper handy or have lots of capital before venturing into this.

Your best bet really for most would be pay off your credit card debt which is costing you 15-22% or your home.  You can't get any return on your money of 15-22% out there, why not keep your money and use for something else.  

Just my 2cents

 

Now on to lego

Any more info on the TOO?

 

​if you get to the point where youre paying 15-22% on any loan youre doing something seriously wrong.

Edited May 20, 2015 by jerryherb

[biking_tiger]

 

Your best bet really for most would be pay off your credit card debt which is costing you 15-22% or your home.  You can't get any return on your money of 15-22% out there, why not keep your money and use for something else.  

​Exactly why I have never carried credit card debt. (And yes, I know some folks bounce debt from one card to the next to curb high interest rates. Playing with fire, IMHO.)

And I'd wave bye-bye to the ToO, definitely before X-mas this year.

[jerryherb]

​Exactly why I have never carried credit card debt. (And yes, I know some folks bounce debt from one card to the next to curb high interest rates. Playing with fire, IMHO.)

And I'd wave bye-bye to the ToO, definitely before X-mas this year.

​quite the opposite. if you can use 100K of someone else's money at 3% and turn that into 25% then why not? assuming you understand the risks why use cash? this also is unsecured debt meaning that if you go broke they will not take your pants.

Edited May 20, 2015 by jerryherb

[mscheaf]

​quite the opposite. if you can use 100K of someone else's money at 3% and turn that into 25% then why not? assuming you understand the risks why use cash? this also is unsecured debt meaning that if you go broke they will not take your pants.

​

This is Trump/Buffet logic. Those guys are failures.

[Battrax]

​quite the opposite. if you can use 100K of someone else's money at 3% and turn that into 25% then why not? assuming you understand the risks why use cash? this also is unsecured debt meaning that if you go broke they will not take your pants.

​https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhaT7F7lMEY

(I would hope it is "pants" in the USA sense, not Commonwealth English sense, heh)

[Simon_GM]

What would be your guys best guess on what modular will retire first? PR, PC, or PS? Also, somewhat off topic for this thread, but what would be the best investment out of those three?

[dcdfan]

What would be your guys best guess on what modular will retire first? PR, PC, or PS? Also, somewhat off topic for this thread, but what would be the best investment out of those three?

​We just did this same exact exercise yesterday...Placing the same question in a different thread doesn't make it a new question...

Edited May 21, 2015 by dcdfan

[Simon_GM]

​We just did this same exact exercise yesterday...Placing the same question in a different thread doesn't make it a new question...

​You got me. Still, I was curious what the people over here thought about this, because it is a larger thread with more people, and also focuses on the EOL aspect of it.

[paladyr]

​You got me. Still, I was curious what the people over here thought about this, because it is a larger thread with more people, and also focuses on the EOL aspect of it.

​Invest in nothing but mixels, just all mixels.