MathBuilder Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Noob here, I was just wondering what people's consensus was on what will be a lego set that's currently selling right now that will have the most growth potential.You are asking one of the quintessentially hard questions for which there is no simple answer one can give you. Instead you are just setting yourself up for sarcastic, scornful responses. My advice is to read several pages back on this thread and the daily deals to get an idea on what people are buying and why. Also if you have a set that think might be a winner look up the particular thread for that set and see if others agree with you. An example of a set that I believe has potential is Pet Shop which we don't really call pet shop we just say PS. Look it up here and decide for yourself if it has potential. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 You are asking one of the quintessentially hard questions for which there is no simple answer one can give you. Instead you are just setting yourself up for sarcastic, scornful responses. My advice is to read several pages back on this thread and the daily deals to get an idea on what people are buying and why. Also if you have a set that think might be a winner look up the particular thread for that set and see if others agree with you. An example of a set that I believe has potential is Pet Shop which we don't really call pet shop we just say PS. Look it up here and decide for yourself if it has potential. I think you should get the most helpful to a new user post award 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romsdeals Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I'm a bit new too, but I've read most of the hot topics on this forum. It's hard to predict which set is closest to EOL, but it seems like ToO might be the closest. It seems like PS and R5 could drag on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickolodon Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) I think TB will be first, what is the lowest price on eBay, Hmmmm... Edited May 20, 2015 by OlegLEGO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MathBuilder Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I think you should get the most helpful to a new user post awardThanks Trek I appreciate it, specially coming from you. I think there are many people here far far more helpful than me, I am just trying to follow their example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM123 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I also think the TB will be retired first and hopefully it will sell out in the US first, just like the SSD did last year ;-) It's so exciting which set(s) will be retired. Will the PS go? That would not be a surprise and of course plausible.. hopefully TLG will pull a townhall strategy on the PC, but I don't think this will be the case. Why? Because it's a corner modular and I think TLG wants be have at least one corner modular available. A new modular will perhaps be a corner so they can retire the PC? As the thread says: It's all just speculation.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I also think the TB will be retired first and hopefully it will sell out in the US first, just like the SSD did last year ;-) It's so exciting which set(s) will be retired. Will the PS go? That would not be a surprise and of course plausible.. hopefully TLG will pull a townhall strategy on the PC, but I don't think this will be the case. Why? Because it's a corner modular and I think TLG wants be have at least one corner modular available. A new modular will perhaps be a corner so they can retire the PC? As the thread says: It's all just speculation..Well... it is worth a gamble to bet on the PC in my opinion. If it turns out that PC will retire soon (as some have mentioned they heared from trustable sources) it will be a big money machine like TH. Although I guess many more will put their money on this than when it happened with TH.My personal theory is both PS and PC will retire at the same time. Please do not burn me if you disagree. It's just a theory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM123 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Well... it is worth a gamble to bet on the PC in my opinion. If it turns out that PC will retire soon (as some have mentioned they heared from trustable sources) it will be a big money machine like TH. Although I guess many more will put their money on this than when it happened with TH.My personal theory is both PS and PC will retire at the same time. Please do not burn me if you disagree. It's just a theory.I do 100% agree with your post. That's why I choose to buy PC instead of PS at this moment ;-) it's all ROI we want to chase, as quick and as much as possible. That's why I agree you can bet on PC, it's a safe bet because you need to get them anyway. Same thing can be said about TH: It's the main building of every modular city, so why retire it so soon? And we all now what TLG did..The best thing would be to retire not the PC or PS, but the PR :-D ;-) $$$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Anyone think the Simpsons House might be on the way out soon? The stock level graph on Brickset is quite interesting, there hasn't been a restock since the graphs started 3 months ago, this is unusual in the exclusives. Based on the sales trend for the last few months, which has been pretty consistent, this would be gone in about 4/5 weeks.I'm kinda torn between Lego only having space for one large Simpsons set at anyone time and between this being the centre piece of Simpsons sets and needing to linger like a bad smell (Death Star). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 There hasn´t been a restock as it seems they either overestimated demand or wanted to make bigger runs less frequently - see Kwik E Mart + Exo Suit. It sells sloer than any modulars (but better than ToO) and they have it with extra VIP points right now, whereas they coul easily have put a "retiring soon" label on it to try and shift the last units if no more were being made.It´s unclear what big restocks really mean in the scheme of things - wishful thinking is that it means "last production run" but until something actually retires we can´t say for sure.Guessing this set will be around for a while as it is Toos in the USA - not sold out.Worth keeping an eye on ToO - something is going to have to give there soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Worth keeping an eye on ToO - something is going to have to give there soon.ToO seems to just get small restocks, hardly indicative of a major production run and more of stock being pulled in from the stores before it goes away. Or that is the optimistic view.Some of these sets have got to disappear soon, you would imagine production requirements will dictate that the second half of the year will be about producing lots of Star Wars sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacsniper Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) Well... it is worth a gamble to bet on the PC in my opinion. If it turns out that PC will retire soon (as some have mentioned they heared from trustable sources) it will be a big money machine like TH. Although I guess many more will put their money on this than when it happened with TH.My personal theory is both PS and PC will retire at the same time. Please do not burn me if you disagree. It's just a theory.I am leaning towards the same thing, both PS and PC will retire at the same time or very close to each other as inventory for these two sets are constantly out of stock (especially PS). And factoring many large sets added to Lego's inventory (Tumbler, Tie Fighter, Kwiki-E-Mart, Ferris Wheel, Slate 1 and more) which makes me think Lego will have to reduce some of the older sets to make room for production and shelf space for retailers. As we approach to the holiday season, Lego will probably be ramping up production in the coming months to have shipments going out in Sept/Oct to ensure products are available in the distribution channel to meet consumer demands. I say PS and PC will dry up from retail by Fall and will linger around the website until someone slaps the retire tag on it.I have my quota for PS and now I will focus on PC and Red5.. thats if TRU dont get any more R2D2 X_X Edited May 20, 2015 by tacsniper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Looks like nothing is going to retire this quarter (ToO maybe) and that there may be a big clear out in the third quarter like last year. However, if people keep going in like crazy on certain items, they may get an extension - wondering whether PS and PC will in fact stick around this year and retire together in late 2016.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacsniper Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Looks like nothing is going to retire this quarter (ToO maybe) and that there may be a big clear out in the third quarter like last year. However, if people keep going in like crazy on certain items, they may get an extension - wondering whether PS and PC will in fact stick around this year and retire together in late 2016....Do you think majority of the sales of PS right now are just sold to investors? If it is not easily available in the retail channel, then I don't see consumer demand being high especially when PR and DO have been getting raving reviews on the internet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Do you think majority of the sales of PS right now are just sold to investors? If it is not easily available in the retail channel, then I don't see consumer demand being high especially when PR and DO have been getting raving reviews on the internet. Good theory. I think this could be close to the truth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jules_K Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 My memory is a little rusty... did any exclusives go to Sold Out in the first 6 months of last year? I think there was a lot of speculation this time last year but in the end very little (if any) ended up selling out until late in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legone2 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I speculate that most of PS, PC, TOO, R5 sold from LEGO Shop at Home for the last few months were to resellers. That means thousands of each set have been hoarded.Same thing is happening with TB. We pushed these sets up to the daily Most Popular list when they are not in stock. They were not in the list when "available now" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I speculate that most of PS, PC, TOO, R5 sold from LEGO Shop at Home for the last few months were to resellers. That means thousands of each set have been hoarded.Same thing is happening with TB. We pushed these sets up to the daily Most Popular list when they are not in stock. They were not in the list when "available now"Hard to know how much of that is down to re-sellers. A lot of regular Lego buyers will have bought those fearing they might be on their way out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lego_fan Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 With respect to all effort and civil discussion, I must say...The best advice my father ever gave me is that, most of the time, it doesn't help at all to be right.The best mine gave me was 'always have your hangover on company time'. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Hard to know how much of that is down to re-sellers. A lot of regular Lego buyers will have bought those fearing they might be on their way out soon.So true. Resellers (and I'm including myself) tend to over-estimate our importance. And whether re-sellers or not, scarcity tends to attract a crowd. Most of us buy with our emotions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legone2 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) It's impossible to know, I totally agree with that.But don't forget we have 40,000 registered members here alone, and its often hundreds of us are online at the same time. Many don't buy any of those sets, but many buy dozens of each. Edited May 20, 2015 by legone2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king156 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I speculate that most of PS, PC, TOO, R5 sold from LEGO Shop at Home for the last few months were to resellers. That means thousands of each set have been hoarded.Same thing is happening with TB. We pushed these sets up to the daily Most Popular list when they are not in stock. They were not in the list when "available now"What does this mean they will have terrible resale value? Im scared cause iv got 5 TB now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 What does this mean they will have terrible resale value? Im scared cause iv got 5 TB now...It doesn't mean anything, because it's only speculation and unlikely to be true.Any set worth investing in is going to be hoarded to a degree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 And like you, how many other have 5 to sell? Over a 5 year production run that is a lot of stock to sell to inviduals who are not caught in the completist frenzy of modular builders. You just have to hope that when it retires there are enough new AFOLS who come in and missed it and can afford and want to pay inflated prices for it - if that is not the case then there will be a lot of worrying going on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zskid00 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 What does this mean they will have terrible resale value? Im scared cause iv got 5 TB now...Not at all, just that they might grow a bit slower. As an example, last year Town Hall was a surprise to everyone when it sold out and there were few opportunities to stock up once the signs of retirement hit. Right now it's around $550 on eBay with an original MSRP of $200. On the other hand Grand Emporium did the dance for so long last year and was much easier to obtain in greater numbers down the stretch until if finally dried up and sold out for good. It's still doing fine and right around $300 on eBay with an original MSRP of $150. There are other factors to consider, such as the GE having a longer production life, but I think there's some correlation between how suddenly a set disappears once the signs of retirement are there and how quickly it appreciates on the secondary market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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