Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/25/2016 at 8:16 PM, Alfiepops said:

30 + in the attic? TB aka Boycie.

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 Not quite that many. I bought most from Amazon for under £100.

[Alfiepops]

  On 10/25/2016 at 8:18 PM, TabbyBoy said:

 Not quite that many. I bought most from Amazon for under £100.

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Wish I could put a sound track on for the Boycie (only fools and horses) laugh.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/25/2016 at 8:21 PM, Alfiepops said:

Wish I could put a sound track on for the Boycie (only fools and horses) laugh.

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Here you go...

 

[Alfiepops]

Priceless TB Absolutely priceless  cue Boycie laugh.

 

[Infiltrator]

The double VIP points are tempting me to buy another - my sixth - Pet Shop. 
Please retire... retire you damn temptation!!!

[GhostDad]

  On 10/23/2016 at 12:50 PM, KShine said:

I believe it is more that many members have chosen reality over the illusion.

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I forgot which was which so took both.  It was the only way to be sure...

Also, and maybe I'm really missing something, but a search for "retiring soon" on shop.lego.com (US) does not show any of the mentioned exclusives or ideas sets retiring.  Neither do the individual item pages.  Are we just guessing here, or what?

Ok, I see: You have to be Dutch to see the "retiring soon" tag.  Even then, it doesn't show on the individual item pages.  I still think it's probably accurate given the sets that are tagged.  Whether this marks the end of these sets in the US is going to depend on the appetite of the US Horde.  My personal appetite is mostly sated, though I'm happy to see Pet Shop and Ewok Village buy the farm, as they say...

Edited October 26, 2016 by GhostDad

[Val-E]

  On 10/26/2016 at 3:11 AM, GhostDad said:

I forgot which was which so took both.  It was the only way to be sure...

Also, and maybe I'm really missing something, but a search for "retiring soon" on shop.lego.com (US) does not show any of the mentioned exclusives or ideas sets retiring.  Neither do the individual item pages.  Are we just guessing here, or what?

Ok, I see: You have to be Dutch to see the "retiring soon" tag.  Even then, it doesn't show on the individual item pages.  I still think it's probably accurate given the sets that are tagged.  Whether this marks the end of these sets in the US is going to depend on the appetite of the US Horde.  My personal appetite is mostly sated, though I'm happy to see Pet Shop and Ewok Village buy the farm, as they say...

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You forgot that a random guy from Singapore´s Lego shop owner said it would be retiring almost a year ago. If that´s not good enough evidence for you, I don´t know what is.

[Pokeshop]

  On 10/26/2016 at 3:11 AM, GhostDad said:

I forgot which was which so took both.  It was the only way to be sure...

Also, and maybe I'm really missing something, but a search for "retiring soon" on shop.lego.com (US) does not show any of the mentioned exclusives or ideas sets retiring.  Neither do the individual item pages.  Are we just guessing here, or what?

Ok, I see: You have to be Dutch to see the "retiring soon" tag.  Even then, it doesn't show on the individual item pages.  I still think it's probably accurate given the sets that are tagged.  Whether this marks the end of these sets in the US is going to depend on the appetite of the US Horde.  My personal appetite is mostly sated, though I'm happy to see Pet Shop and Ewok Village buy the farm, as they say...

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Also if you change region to UK you can see retiring tag on these products.

[StormBricks]

42041 is showing as retired in SAH UK but very available and without "Retiring soon" in US.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/26/2016 at 8:38 AM, StormBricks said:

42041 is showing as retired in SAH UK but very available and without "Retiring soon" in US.

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Yes, retired for the SECOND time!

Out of principle I am avoiding 42041 as it's simply a resurrection of 8041 with the same 608 pieces . If you look back, you'll see that 8041 was making very good money and it's value has now plummeted due to putting a new number (42041) on the box.

8041, Limited Edition? My Arse!

I know, let's play "Spot The difference"...

This exact same set has now retired TWICE. This is another reason why I rarely invest in Technic!

"C'mon LEGO, you're not Hollywood... Stop pulling the wool over our eyes and come up with some new ideas!"

Guys... I strongly suggest that you look into Technic's past before splashing out on several copies of a set.

Edited October 26, 2016 by TabbyBoy

[Sprocket77]

  On 10/26/2016 at 9:03 AM, TabbyBoy said:

Out of principle

 

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So let me get this straight, we've learned this morning that you have principles and you are not all about greed.

 

[StormBricks]

We have a new set like that. The Mini Cooper now which is not Technic. But with upgraded box dimensions :-)

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/26/2016 at 9:31 AM, StormBricks said:

We have a new set like that. The Mini Cooper now which is not Technic. But with upgraded box dimensions :-)

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There's been a lot of box updates but, not hiding a set for a while and then sneakily putting a new number on it hoping that we don't notice ;-)  The good thing about some of the new boxes (eg. Mini) is that they now slip under the small parcel dimension limits of the Royal Mail meaning that postage is cheaper. Anything that gives eBay a lower postage FVF can only be good, right?

[Val-E]

SOH has gone to backorder again.

 

 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/26/2016 at 11:32 AM, Val-E said:

SOH has gone to backorder again.

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Probably busy updating the box before resurrecting it! LOL

[Fenix_2k1]

  On 10/26/2016 at 9:03 AM, TabbyBoy said:

Yes, retired for the SECOND time!

Out of principle I am avoiding 42041 as it's simply a resurrection of 8041 with the same 608 pieces . If you look back, you'll see that 8041 was making very good money and it's value has now plummeted due to putting a new number (42041) on the box.

8041, Limited Edition? My Arse!

I know, let's play "Spot The difference"...

This exact same set has now retired TWICE. This is another reason why I rarely invest in Technic!

"C'mon LEGO, you're not Hollywood... Stop pulling the wool over our eyes and come up with some new ideas!"

Guys... I strongly suggest that you look into Technic's past before splashing out on several copies of a set.

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Thing is, I do really like this set.  Especially the B model.

I wouldn't have minded picking some up for investment in a quiet year but too many other sets have my eye and wallet this year. 

[KShine]

  On 10/26/2016 at 3:11 AM, GhostDad said:

My personal appetite is mostly sated

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I am also quite sated.

I wish I could be excited about the soon to be retiring sets - I just know/expect that they will then be spending the next year or two sitting with the other retired sets, mostly failing to achieve substantial gains. I suppose that it's great if you are just looking to get a few bucks profit, but to me - I just see piles and piles of disappointment.

What I would find exciting would be to miss out on a set, to be able to say how I should have known to load up on a set, and regret not doing it. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening - but I would really love to be wrong.

[fossilrock]

  On 10/26/2016 at 12:27 PM, KShine said:

I am also quite sated.

I wish I could be excited about the soon to be retiring sets - I just know/expect that they will then be spending the next year or two sitting with the other retired sets, mostly failing to achieve substantial gains. I suppose that it's great if you are just looking to get a few bucks profit, but to me - I just see piles and piles of disappointment.

What I would find exciting would be to miss out on a set, to be able to say how I should have known to load up on a set, and regret not doing it. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening - but I would really love to be wrong.

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Here here!  I'm in the same mindset.  It's really disappointing as I like some of the sets like EV, SC, and PS, along with themes like The Force Awakens, Scooby, and JW, but I just can't pull the trigger on buying anymore.  And I think we aren't alone, because here in the States we are not seeing a large phase out yet.  Many of these retiring sets are still sitting around on many sites, and we know they are retiring thanks to the notifications in Europe - yet the swarm of buying out all of the stock isn't happening, so I think a lot of people see the writing on the wall. 

The signs are showing that the days of reselling lego and making more than 2x back are nearing their end. Previous years, I would purchase a lot of sets around this time of year.  This year, i'm not adding a single set to my investment portfolio over the next few months.  I'll reconvene in april during the next round of clearance, but until then, i'm just selling what I already have in my stock...most of which is already retired.  I think as I sell it off, i'm not going to put the profits back into lego this go around. 

[exciter1]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:04 PM, fossilrock said:

Here here!  I'm in the same mindset.  It's really disappointing as I like some of the sets like EV, SC, and PS, along with themes like The Force Awakens, Scooby, and JW, but I just can't pull the trigger on buying anymore.  And I think we aren't alone, because here in the States we are not seeing a large phase out yet.  Many of these retiring sets are still sitting around on many sites, and we know they are retiring thanks to the notifications in Europe - yet the swarm of buying out all of the stock isn't happening, so I think a lot of people see the writing on the wall. 

The signs are showing that the days of reselling lego and making more than 2x back are nearing their end. Previous years, I would purchase a lot of sets around this time of year.  This year, i'm not adding a single set to my investment portfolio over the next few months.  I'll reconvene in april during the next round of clearance, but until then, i'm just selling what I already have in my stock...most of which is already retired.  I think as I sell it off, i'm not going to put the profits back into lego this go around. 

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People will be singing a different tune once clearance time hits.

[fossilrock]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:06 PM, exciter1 said:

People will be singing a different tune once clearance time hits.

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You might be right.  But, it's going to have to be like last april/may and be around 50% to really spike interest, I think. 

[exciter1]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:07 PM, fossilrock said:

You might be right.  But, it's going to have to be like last april/may and be around 50% to really spike interest, I think. 

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That's the thing, most still think 2x is achievable when you buy at good discounts.  The margins are getting thinner though.

[Voltron]

@KShine, @fossilrock, @exciter1

Say for some spectacular reason, some of the 2016 retiree sets perform well (reach 20/30% above RRP by Feb), would any of you change your attitude to the current state of investing or would it remain the same?

Interesting to hear from more experienced sellers who have been investing for the past few years on their views, will it pull some people back in? Or would most people just call that an anomly and still not invest.

[exciter1]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:19 PM, Mhd747 said:

@KShine, @fossilrock, @exciter1

Say for some spectacular reason, some of the 2016 retiree sets perform well (reach 20/30% above RRP by Feb), would any of you change your attitude to the current state of investing or would it remain the same?

Interesting to hear from more experienced sellers who have been investing for the past few years on their views, will it pull some people back in? Or would most people just call that an anomly and still not invest.

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Let's just say, I'm not buying anymore of the large exclusives that have been widely speculated as "retiring soon".

[Guest TabbyBoy]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:10 PM, exciter1 said:

That's the thing, most still think 2x is achievable when you buy at good discounts.  The margins are getting thinner though.

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It's time to call it a day when Amazon & eBay are making more profit on a set than we are and that day isn't too far away for some of us. I've only being buying recently when there's been large discounts so that I can still achieve a good margin when selling at or close to RRP. The secret now is to buy as cheaply as possible and gauge the best time to sell as a lot more sets stagnate than they used to. We're now in an era of remakes and resurrections which threatens us all. No wonder QFLLs rule these days ;-)

For example... if you sell a set bought for £50 for £100, the margin would be about 20% after fees, postage and tax.

With the bike parts and LEGO that I'm currently selling, my current margin is 42.1% which is very good in the current climate. It's bike parts that do the best but, I'm being hammered by current exchange rates as I mostly buy in Dollar, Euro or Yen.

Edited October 26, 2016 by TabbyBoy

[exciter1]

  On 10/26/2016 at 1:27 PM, TabbyBoy said:

It's time to call it a day when Amazon & eBay are making more profit on a set than we are and that day isn't too far away for some of us. I've only being buying recently when there's been large discounts so that I can still achieve a good margin when selling at or close to RRP. The secret now is to buy as cheaply as possible and gauge the best time to sell as a lot more sets stagnate than they use to. We're now in an era of remakes and resurrections which threatens us all. No wonder QFLLs rule these days ;-)

For example... if you sell a set bought for £50 for £100, the margin would be about 20% after fees, postage and tax.

With the bike parts and LEGO that I'm currently selling, my current margin is 42.1% which is very good in the current climate. It's bike parts that do the best but, I'm being hammered by current exchange rates as I mostly buy in Dollar, Euro or Yen.

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The Peso is king over here.