I have a theory from watching sales on TRU lately. They rarely have sales but there recent one is telling to me. It is for most sets we have been finding on clearence that our pretty obviously retiring soon and they have been including Ecto 1 in that sale. If you are buying these at TRU tell them to do a store adjustment not a price match then the coupons work. I hope this is a set that once it shows a little sign of retirement it will be gone in a heartbeat. 

I have a theory from watching sales on TRU lately. They rarely have sales but there recent one is telling to me. It is for most sets we have been finding on clearence that our pretty obviously retiring soon and they have been including Ecto 1 in that sale. If you are buying these at TRU tell them to do a store adjustment not a price match then the coupons work. I hope this is a set that once it shows a little sign of retirement it will be gone in a heartbeat. 

Except that this is not in the "clearance" sale...

I have a theory from watching sales on TRU lately. They rarely have sales but there recent one is telling to me. It is for most sets we have been finding on clearence that our pretty obviously retiring soon and they have been including Ecto 1 in that sale. If you are buying these at TRU tell them to do a store adjustment not a price match then the coupons work. I hope this is a set that once it shows a little sign of retirement it will be gone in a heartbeat. 

This same logic applies to the VW Camper Van.  Oh, fuzznuggitz, wait a minute...

Edited September 9, 201510 yr by exciter1

I disagree that it is "quite obvious" Birds will retire first.

That's the fun of this 'hobby' of ours. We all try to make predictions based on clues we perceive, but we're making different interpretations of these vague clues. And in the end, only TLG really knows their schedule. 

So we'll just have to wait and see whether Birds or Ghostbusters Ecto-1 gets to retirement first. :-)

That's the fun of this 'hobby' of ours. We all try to make predictions based on clues we perceive, but we're making different interpretations of these vague clues. And in the end, only TLG really knows their schedule. 

So we'll just have to wait and see whether Birds or Ghostbusters Ecto-1 gets to retirement first. :-)

Totally agree, but what clues are you using to say Birds is definately going first?

From what i can see, GB came out in June 2014, and Birds was Jan 2015. I know these don't always retire sequentially...........or do they in the Ideas brand?

 

Can anyone explain me where the numbers come from and how important these really are for us?

"If you look at the LEGO Ideas category: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/eu-inventory.cfm?cat_id=622 I think it's quite obvious that Birds will Retire first and soon".

 

Thanks

Just to increase the chance that somebody actually answers my question ;-)

Totally agree, but what clues are you using to say Birds is definately going first?

From what i can see, GB came out in June 2014, and Birds was Jan 2015. I know these don't always retire sequentially...........or do they in the Ideas brand?

 

21110: Retired
21109: Sold Out
21108: Available

Ideas sets do not retire in FIFO sequence. Ideas sets with IP do tend to be available longer which makes me assume that Birds will go out first before Ecto-1.

Edited September 9, 201510 yr by znjndmawn

Birds is a hard one to call. A few months ago I would have said it was done as sales were sluggish, but now demand is keeping it sold out until October. If it does EOL then a fair few people will be left without one and we all know what that means.

Just wait until people start thinking it is eol and panic buying en masse. Then watch TLG extend production for another year because the sales are so good.

Just wait until people start thinking it is eol and panic buying en masse. Then watch TLG extend production for another year because the sales are so good.

You have to wonder if the Exo Suit debacle has made them firmer on these sets - I can see them killing it off before Xmas. It´s probably not as uber hoarded as Ecto either..... 

You have to wonder if the Exo Suit debacle has made them firmer on these sets - I can see them killing it off before Xmas. It´s probably not as uber hoarded as Ecto either..... 

What makes you believe Ecto-1 is "über hoarded"?

How many have you got?

How many have you got?

You flatter me. I became the standard now?

 

I have 8.

 

 Birds - ExoSuit II - the sequel.  The only people buying this set are QFLL wanabe - i sawer it in a documentary.  No actual LEGO users are excited by Birds.  Unless there is a second Birds release, this set reeks of dudness.  

Ecto will be one of those winners that was staring you in the face for so long you'll be questioning what was wrong with your mental faculties that you didn't buy more of these while it was available at target with a 5% red card discount.  The LEGO investing sequel to BTTF.  

The reason to buy Birds is you're contrarian and you think BIRDS is uber-unhoarded.  Which its not because of the documentary.  So investing in Birds you have a bunch of newbs who will be disappointed when it doesn't go up as fast as they wanted because the intrinsic demand stinks and then they start dumping at a low price post EOL which keeps the growth curve down.  Recipe for disappointment.

Ecto might not be as hoarded as some would believe - its never been discounted in north america.  I've only seen in on shelves in the lego store and at 2 TRU so not a lot of shelf exposure.  

Ghostbusters is being shown on a TV channel somewhere in the world right now.  Birds?  not so much.  

Even if ecto is hoarded, demand is only going to increase with the franchise reboot (even with the new actors nostalgia for the old slime will be there).  I'm up to 30 Ecto and would like to be at 50 by December.  I think it will be difficult to find in December-January and gone by Feb.

You flatter me. I became the standard now?

 

I have 8.

 

I know your scale of investment and I know that it covers the broad average of lego resellers so 8-10 ectos per head is probably quite an accurate number. I know quite a few have 50 or more.

Probably anyone who didn´t get many Deloreans have gone in hard on this set to compensate, which is what has put me off so far.

Ideas also seems a bit like Windows releases, every second one bombs but the others do really well.

I know your scale of investment and I know that it covers the broad average of lego resellers so 8-10 ectos per head is probably quite an accurate number. I know quite a few have 50 or more.

Probably anyone who didn´t get many Deloreans have gone in hard on this set to compensate, which is what has put me off so far.

Ideas also seems a bit like Windows releases, every second one bombs but the others do really well.

You have it all figured out my friend. 

 Birds - ExoSuit II - the sequel.  The only people buying this set are QFLL wanabe - i sawer it in a documentary.  No actual LEGO users are excited by Birds.  Unless there is a second Birds release, this set reeks of dudness.  

Ecto will be one of those winners that was staring you in the face for so long you'll be questioning what was wrong with your mental faculties that you didn't buy more of these while it was available at target with a 5% red card discount.  The LEGO investing sequel to BTTF.  

The reason to buy Birds is you're contrarian and you think BIRDS is uber-unhoarded.  Which its not because of the documentary.  So investing in Birds you have a bunch of newbs who will be disappointed when it doesn't go up as fast as they wanted because the intrinsic demand stinks and then they start dumping at a low price post EOL which keeps the growth curve down.  Recipe for disappointment.

Ecto might not be as hoarded as some would believe - its never been discounted in north america.  I've only seen in on shelves in the lego store and at 2 TRU so not a lot of shelf exposure.  

Ghostbusters is being shown on a TV channel somewhere in the world right now.  Birds?  not so much.  

Even if ecto is hoarded, demand is only going to increase with the franchise reboot (even with the new actors nostalgia for the old slime will be there).  I'm up to 30 Ecto and would like to be at 50 by December.  I think it will be difficult to find in December-January and gone by Feb.

amen.

It could be bought for much cheaper @ ToysRUS with discounted Gift card + 15% off one item coupon + TRUTH 10% off. Netting around $40-$41 before taxes.

Edited September 9, 201510 yr by siddji

Just to increase the chance that somebody actually answers my question ;-)

I guess you could track how fast particular sets are selling and try to figure out demand and interest. Having said that, I would try no to get too caught up with them. They could easily re-stock.

What makes you believe Ecto-1 is "über hoarded"?

after what BTTF did its up there.  I was aiming for 100 until saw its extended life signs with new runs.  Quit at 55 for now and I do not have near what some others do. 

I'm wondering if the Dimensions Ghostbusters sets will increase awareness and desire with gamers who may want the Ecto-1 thus increasing demand.

The discount is getting this with decent LEGO Shop at Home promo (see winter soldier). I will be buying with seasonal promos for an easy $20 off more than likely

 Ghostbusters is being shown on a TV channel somewhere in the world right now.  Birds?  not so much.  

I thought birds flying everywhere!

:D

Lots in TRU Times Square for a mere $54.99 US!! No Limit!!

 

I am confused.

How is the Birds set comparable to the Ecto? Apart from both being Ideas sets. Surely they appeal to completely different people.

 

Looking at the Ebay sales figures Ecto is currently trading (in the UK) at 10% below RRP.
Birds is trading at up to 50% above RRP! 

I diversified portfolio should have both. I have the Ecto, 5 I think but no Birds yet. I may have missed the boat on this one.