Prediction of worth for Series 10 "Mr. Gold"

[comicblast]

Bricks already answered this question:

The website isn't active yet. I can only assume that they aren't going to launch it until "LEGO" officially starts selling them. As for the number of cases, it doesn't really matter since it was dumb luck anyways to find it.

I guess we should see it launched pretty soon. What is the release date? May 1st?The website is probably going to be launched on May 1st because that is the official release day for the Series 10 Minifigures.Rats! By then, a load will be already found!! Already, a few have been found, so if we see 10 found per week, 20 will be out by the time the rest of us can grab them. That sucks!

[JoshTX]

Bricks already answered this question:

The website isn't active yet. I can only assume that they aren't going to launch it until "LEGO" officially starts selling them. As for the number of cases, it doesn't really matter since it was dumb luck anyways to find it.

I guess we should see it launched pretty soon. What is the release date? May 1st?The website is probably going to be launched on May 1st because that is the official release day for the Series 10 Minifigures.Rats! By then, a load will be already found!! Already, a few have been found, so if we see 10 found per week, 20 will be out by the time the rest of us can grab them. That sucks!Yeah, it does kind of suck that some already have full access to series 10 while others are twiddling their thumbs because store managers in their particular demographic are "abiding" by TLG rules and either not ordering them yet or not setting them out for retail.

[TheOrcKing]

oh i'm sorry, i was wondering if we had a in house one that we were using to keep tabs

You can go to the very first page of this thread and see the list of currently found Mr Gold's in the main post. I'll update the list with each numbered one that pops up and adjust the ratio that every person in the world has to still find a Mr Gold.

[Bricks]

Hey Orc King, I'm just curious how you arrived at your probability without a total production number (since Lego is always so tight lipped)? Did you get a total production number on the side (back alley in Billund??), or some other constant that would help derive that stat? Just curious from a stat perspective....

[TheOrcKing]

Hey Orc King, I'm just curious how you arrived at your probability without a total production number (since Lego is always so tight lipped)? Did you get a total production number on the side (back alley in Billund??), or some other constant that would help derive that stat? Just curious from a stat perspective....

It was confirmed at the London Toy Fair on January 22 that there would only be 5,000 of Mr Gold spread worldwide. No back alley in Billund or secret informant. Ha ha. Then there is the average number of people in the entire world based on the United States Census Bureau: US & World Population Clock. (Since it is always changing I just make the best average I can.) I take the world population and divide it by the number of Mr Gold's still left in circulation to get my basic result. It is primitive and the world population is constantly changing but it does give a rough ratio of finding a single Mr Gold in the wild more or less.

[Mos_Eisley]

It was confirmed at the London Toy Fair on January 22 that there would only be 5,000 of Mr Gold spread worldwide. No back alley in Billund or secret informant. Ha ha. Then there is the average number of people in the entire world based on the United States Census Bureau: US & World Population Clock. (Since it is always changing I just make the best average I can.) I take the world population and divide it by the number of Mr Gold's still left in circulation to get my basic result. It is primitive and the world population is constantly changing but it does give a rough ratio of finding a single Mr Gold in the wild more or less.

The actual probability of finding one of these has nothing to do with the worldwide population. First, everyone in the world isn't searching for it, and second, not everyone in the world will even have access to the product. The odds are actually not that bad at all of finding one. You can choose to take my word for it or not, but the odds of finding a Mr. Gold are 1 in about every 11-12 sealed boxes of 60, or approximately 1 in 660-720 blind bags.

[arobert125]

It's all a conspiracy.....or is it? Cause everything on the Internet is true http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=rmx4twCK3_I&desktop;_uri=/watch?v=rmx4twCK3_I

[Bricks]

It was confirmed at the London Toy Fair on January 22 that there would only be 5,000 of Mr Gold spread worldwide. No back alley in Billund or secret informant. Ha ha. Then there is the average number of people in the entire world based on the United States Census Bureau: US & World Population Clock. (Since it is always changing I just make the best average I can.) I take the world population and divide it by the number of Mr Gold's still left in circulation to get my basic result. It is primitive and the world population is constantly changing but it does give a rough ratio of finding a single Mr Gold in the wild more or less.

Ahhhhhhh. So it's based on on your chance per person in the world, not on how many bags are out there. That makes sense for the number you had there.

We were thinking more on total bags in production taking a rough guess at 500,000 cases world wide based on a rough number of cases shipped to every retailer that carries them given that Walmart, TRU, Target, Kmart, and Fred Meyer alone will account for about 145k cases and then of course Amazon and everyone else on top of that x 60 figs = 30,000,000 bags or a 1 in 6,000 bags or 1 in a 100 cases chance of getting one. Now of course if world wide distribution is lower than 500k cases your odds improve greatly. So lets say for fun it's somewhere between my number and Mos-Eisley's unless of course he is privy to actual production numbers and then I defer to him. :)

[stackables]

Anyone concerned about buying boxes that the seller decides to weigh before selling them. I assume a box with the gold figure will weigh more.

[Mos_Eisley]

Anyone concerned about buying boxes that the seller decides to weigh before selling them. I assume a box with the gold figure will weigh more.

I haven't been fortunate enough to get Mr. Gold yet, but I doubt that his weight is significantly greater than any other figure. Alone, you could probably weigh him and he might be a little more, but I doubt that you could weigh a sealed box and know for sure whether or not he is in there. Variances in the amount of glue, packaging, etc. would likely be greater than the added weight of having a Mr. Gold in the box. But only one person here would know for sure so far!

[comicblast]

Anyone concerned about buying boxes that the seller decides to weigh before selling them. I assume a box with the gold figure will weigh more.

I think that it doesn't weigh enough in difference. However, I think weighing each bag individually could work. To do this though, you probably have to know the exact weight of each fig, which is a little meticulous. I think it is worth it though....just saying! :-)

[Bricks]

I remember people doing this "weighing" method when the chrome C-3po and Vader were out. I actually saw guys with scales in a shopping cart weighing boxes. They claimed it worked but at what cost.....my time is worth more than that personally.

[TheOrcKing]

The actual probability of finding one of these has nothing to do with the worldwide population. First, everyone in the world isn't searching for it, and second, not everyone in the world will even have access to the product. The odds are actually not that bad at all of finding one. You can choose to take my word for it or not, but the odds of finding a Mr. Gold are 1 in about every 11-12 sealed boxes of 60, or approximately 1 in 660-720 blind bags.

Yes, I understand not everyone in the entire world is looking for him and many probably don't care or even know of the Mr Gold item. It was just a generalized statistic for the chance that any average person in the entire world has of finding a single Mr Gold and could be defined better if there was a basic percentage of those that are Lego fans. I have no idea how many boxes of 30's or 60's will be made, let alone where they will be shipped off to.

I went with the formula of "Average chance any person in the world has of finding a Mr Gold" because those numbers are more defined and at the least give a rather rough estimate. Anything else is unknown and pure speculation. Realistically, the ratio is probably more like half or more less than what is shown.

[TheOrcKing]

We were thinking more on total bags in production taking a rough guess at 500,000 cases world wide based on a rough number of cases shipped to every retailer that carries them given that Walmart, TRU, Target, Kmart, and Fred Meyer alone will account for about 145k cases and then of course Amazon and everyone else on top of that x 60 figs = 30,000,000 bags or a 1 in 6,000 bags or 1 in a 100 cases chance of getting one. Now of course if world wide distribution is lower than 500k cases your odds improve greatly. So lets say for fun it's somewhere between my number and Mos-Eisley's unless of course he is privy to actual production numbers and then I defer to him.

Knowing actual production numbers and shipping information would help immensely. I wonder who would know of such numbers in the company? That kind of info could be to a company like Lego the same as the secret formula for Coca-Cola. ;)

[arobert125]

If we had their numbers we'd make tons and tons of money. As for finding a Mr. Gold, anyone with $ will have the same chances as everyone else...EBay...lol

[TheOrcKing]

As for finding a Mr. Gold, anyone with $ will have the same chances as everyone else...EBay...lol

Ha ha, yep.

[Bricks]

I know someone posted the previous custom "Mr Gold" this guy was selling but at least it was a matte finish gold. Now he's listing this thing. This will make it damn near impossible to tell the difference from the real thing if someone takes it out of the bag and/or doesn't have the flyer with it. Once these are out in the wild all bets are off unless you have the flyer to go with your minifig and even then it may not matter to the average person buying one on Ebay. Knowing how Lego watches stuff like this I'll be shocked if he's not shut down on this shortly but then again... http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Minifig-CUSTOM-Mr-Gold-CHROME-Replica-Series-10-Very-Limited-Run-/321110017574?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4ac3a60626

[comicblast]

I know someone posted the previous custom "Mr Gold" this guy was selling but at least it was a matte finish gold. Now he's listing this thing. This will make it damn near impossible to tell the difference from the real thing if someone takes it out of the bag and/or doesn't have the flyer with it. Once these are out in the wild all bets are off unless you have the flyer to go with your minifig and even then it may not matter to the average person buying one on Ebay. Knowing how Lego watches stuff like this I'll be shocked if he's not shut down on this shortly but then again...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Minifig-CUSTOM-Mr-Gold-CHROME-Replica-Series-10-Very-Limited-Run-/321110017574?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4ac3a60626

This custom looks pretty darn close to the actual. I might buy the copy if it is cheaper than the actual thing, though it isn't the same.

Geez...Look at this crappy replica.

Another Mr. Gold minifigure on eBay... which makes the total found that we know of 5.

[TheOrcKing]

I know someone posted the previous custom "Mr Gold" this guy was selling but at least it was a matte finish gold. Now he's listing this thing. This will make it damn near impossible to tell the difference from the real thing if someone takes it out of the bag and/or doesn't have the flyer with it. Once these are out in the wild all bets are off unless you have the flyer to go with your minifig and even then it may not matter to the average person buying one on Ebay. Knowing how Lego watches stuff like this I'll be shocked if he's not shut down on this shortly but then again...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Minifig-CUSTOM-Mr-Gold-CHROME-Replica-Series-10-Very-Limited-Run-/321110017574?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4ac3a60626

That is wickedly close to the original as far as the minifigure itself goes. Jeeze louis. Already this whole Mr Gold thing is turning into a really wierd clusterfluff. The knockoffs don't surprise me, it's the quick and timely manner they seem to be appearing in. The first couple of authentic Mr Gold pop up and then all of sudden so do these? Sheesh. The printing on those knockoffs are so spot on, it's ridiculous.

[Huskers1236]

This custom looks pretty darn close to the actual. I might buy the copy if it is cheaper than the actual thing, though it isn't the same.

Geez...Look at this crappy replica.

Another Mr. Gold minifigure on eBay... which makes the total found that we know of 5.

Over $600 now, and it's freaking blemished.

[buck brick]

$900! This will be the most expensive Minifig ever sold on eBay! We are watching history!

[comicblast]

This custom looks pretty darn close to the actual. I might buy the copy if it is cheaper than the actual thing, though it isn't the same.

Geez...Look at this crappy replica.

Another Mr. Gold minifigure on eBay... which makes the total found that we know of 5.

Over $600 now, and it's freaking blemished.$900 now. Still the reserve has not been met. This is nuts!! Still nearly 3 days left.

[TheOrcKing]

Another Mr. Gold minifigure on eBay... which makes the total found that we know of 5.

Nope. Still just four found so far. The seller relisted his numbered 4628 Mr Gold.

The seller of that one is the same as the lot Mos_Eisley listed here.

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Lego-Series-10-71001-Mr-Mister-Chrome-Gold-IN-HAND-4628-sealed-bag-minifig-/290900229409?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item43bb013d21

It says the listing ended and sold for $511.85, yet was relisted. Did the buyer not pay up? What happened here?

[comicblast]

Nope. Still just four found so far. The seller relisted his numbered 4628 Mr Gold. The seller of that one is the same as the lot Mos_Eisley listed here.

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Lego-Series-10-71001-Mr-Mister-Chrome-Gold-IN-HAND-4628-sealed-bag-minifig-/290900229409?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item43bb013d21

It says the listing ended and sold for $511.85, yet was relisted. Did the buyer not pay up? What happened here?

On another note, hey John from Bricks & Minifigs. What is the number of your Mr Gold?

I thought it was 2 from the German, 1 from Bricks, 1 from Twiddlepotts, and now this one, which makes 5.

[buck brick]

$900! This will be the most expensive Minifig ever sold on eBay! We are watching history!

People this is going to go for as much as a UCS Falcon!