Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

38 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Once again I have to mention that we are in the middle of the biggest SW hype since years. There's still 5 more movies to come. You can be sure that they have sold a ton more SW sets than in the past few years. I think they are definitely keeping more Star Wars sets in production than usual and they will try to keep it that way for as long as they can. I really think you cannot apply the old retirement patterns in this case.

Whether or not this is a good idea is another question entirely. Retail cannibalism is already happening. How many TIE's are there available again? Want another copy of that X-Wing in a different color?

The fact that they are keeping sets like the Flash Speeder and the Imperial Assault Carrier in production is mind boggling to me as well.

I think some sets will retire at the end of the year, but it won't be nearly as much as people expect. I wouldn't be surprised if no UCS sets retire at all.

So why did they retire UCS Red 5 and AT AT and ISD on the eve of the 1st new movie release?

I maintain that SC and EV are done this season.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Val-E

[c_rpg]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

So why did they retire UCS Red 5 and AT AT and ISD on the eve of the 1st new movie release?

I maintain that SC and EV are done this season.

Maybe they underestimated the impact the movie would have? It's not unlikely that they changed their strategy once they saw how much demand there was during the holidays.

I hope you're right and SC + EV are gone, but it wouldn't surprise me if they stay a while longer.

1 hour ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Flash Speeder and IAC were only released in June 2015 so retirement by year end would be the normal 18 Month cycle.

I still think all stormtrooper logo'd sets and wave 1 TFA disappear at year end.  Excluding MF.

As The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy says Don't Panic!!!

You're right that they are not out for that long yet, but the point is there are a lot more sets available right now. So it would make sense to retire stuff that is not selling at all (Imperial Assault Carrier and Flash Speeder for example) and reserve additional production capacity for the things that are selling well.

Edited October 5, 2016 by c_rpg

[Fenix_2k1]

18 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Maybe they underestimated the impact the movie would have? It's not unlikely that they changed their strategy once they saw how much demand there was during the holidays.

I hope you're right and SC + EV are gone, but it wouldn't surprise me if they stay a while longer.

You're right that they are not out for that long yet, but the point is there are a lot more sets available right now. So it would make sense to retire stuff that is not selling at all (Imperial Assault Carrier and Flash Speeder for example) and reserve additional production capacity for the things that are selling well.

I think there is a general trend with Lego that most everyday sets will be out for two christmases. One while they're new and then one to clear what's left at EOL.

So my take is,  depending on release time, sets will usually last 12, 15 or 18 months. 

Flagships like MF excluded. 

 

Edited October 5, 2016 by Fenix_2k1

[zskid00]

A lot of Star Wars sets retired at the end of the 2015/beginning of 2016 that had only been out 12-18 months or less - AAT, T-16, AT-DP, Wookie Gunship, Phantom, Ghost, Snowspeeder, B-wing, Jedi Scout Fighter, Cantina, AT-AT, and MTT.  These were all part of the Summer 2014 wave and Winter 2015 wave.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I think there is a general trend with Lego that most everyday sets will be out for two christmases. One while they're new and then one to clear what's left at EOL.

So my take is,  depending on release time, sets will usually last 12, 15 or 18 months. 

Flagships like MF excluded. 

 

We had very few out of season retirements this year, so I am expecting a major cull this quarter.

[kris_1973]

I'm predicting new retirements now or in the future, none for new retirements in the past.

[Fenix_2k1]

10 minutes ago, Val-E said:

We had very few out of season retirements this year, so I am expecting a major cull this quarter.

The retirements will come but the state of play of the reseller market afterwards is the scary part. How many newly retired sets will manage to climb above rrp in 2017?

Edited October 5, 2016 by Fenix_2k1

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

The retirements will come but the state of play of the reseller market afterwards is the scary part. How many newly retired sets will manage to climb above rrp in 2017

Which do you predict?

[Sprocket77]

Just now, Val-E said:

Which do you predict?

[Fenix_2k1]

11 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Which do you predict?

Very difficult to predict.  All the popular sets have been heavily discounted and hoarded and the popular ones people are likely to already have in their collection. 

So the question is which are the sets that people are ignoring that they suddenly take notice of when they are gone and aren't heavily hoarded. 

Who would have predicted Ghost,Phantom and GG Wheelbike doing so well last  year?

[c_rpg]

50 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Very difficult to predict.  All the popular sets have been heavily discounted and hoarded and the popular ones people are likely to already have in their collection. 

So the question is which are the sets that people are ignoring that they suddenly take notice of when they are gone and aren't heavily hoarded. 

Who would have predicted Ghost,Phantom and GG Wheelbike doing so well last  year?

Very difficult to pick any set that has not been talked about a ton and isn't a complete turd. Sith Infiltrator maybe? Though I'm sure some people here have a couple hundred laying around.

You're right about the Ghost, Phantom and Wheelbike, however SW sets that were tagged as winners did very good as well. AT-AT & ISD?

[Fenix_2k1]

3 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Very difficult to pick any set that has not been talked about a ton and isn't a complete turd. Sith Infiltrator maybe? Though I'm sure some people here have a couple hundred laying around.

You're right about the Ghost, Phantom and Wheelbike, however SW sets that were tagged as winners did very good as well. AT-AT & ISD?

I think the number of players in the market has risen sharply in the last year. 

And of the sets currently out, the two most popular are MF and Poes X-wing. I don't see MF retiring and Poes xwing has competition from resistance x-wing for at least a year. They'll do well longer term but don't think either will move much above rrp for their first 12 months post retirement.

I think this Christmas & retirement season will tell us a lot about the future of Lego investment certainly on the SW front. 

[TLKC]

Smaller boxes = more shelf space...

[botchy123]

9493 has a bit bit of competition and seems to be doing just fine. Might have to release a couple of squadrons of those soon i think

[c_rpg]

1 hour ago, botchy123 said:

9493 has a bit bit of competition and seems to be doing just fine. Might have to release a couple of squadrons of those soon i think

I've got Gold Squadron standing by with 10 y-wings right behind you

[fossilrock]

One thing i'm noticing is that even though it is 2xVIP, sets aren't flying into OOS as fast as last year. Also the buying thread is starting to see occasional tumbleweeds blow through it.  I think it's evident not as many people are as gungho about purchasing as last year, even with discounts.  This could mean it will take longer for stock to dry out, and it could also trigger less production runs like previous years on sets that should be retiring, but lego decides to hold for a few more production runs because people aren't clearing them out instantly because resellers and the collectors sense retirement.  This could be good or bad for those that do actually buy.  It could mean that you might end up with stock in inventory that not as many have built up, or it could mean that legos days as a premium brand are beginning to wane, and the secondary market is contracting and retiring sets might not have decent resale potential..  Tricky times for many of us..

Edited October 5, 2016 by fossilrock

[makr]

6 hours ago, c_rpg said:

Maybe they underestimated the impact the movie would have? It's not unlikely that they changed their strategy once they saw how much demand there was during the holidays.

I'm sure there are many factors that contribute to TLGs decission making regarding retirement of long running sets (manufacturing capacities, real manufacturing costs vs planned cost, "political decissions", ...), but more or less, I'm rather certain that it comes down to this:

Is it selling well? yes -> keep producing; no -> retire

My impression is that people tend to overcomplicate these things, stuff like "messing with investors" and such.

[landphieran]

I think there are a couple factors to the sets not selling out in the U.S.

1. Mediocre Rewards (Europe's are much better)
2. Number of sets available
3. Buyers learning from ToO, Pet shop (if its not REALLY likely to retired, why risk it)
4. Saving money for christmas flips

I think peoples patience waiting out sets to be more likely to retire is going to help all investors. Less stupidly large production batches to keep it in stock.

Edited October 5, 2016 by landphieran

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

One thing i'm noticing is that even though it is 2xVIP, sets aren't flying into OOS as fast as last year. Also the buying thread is starting to see occasional tumbleweeds blow through it.  I think it's evident not as many people are as gungho about purchasing as last year, even with discounts.  This could mean it will take longer for stock to dry out, and it could also trigger less production runs like previous years on sets that should be retiring, but lego decides to hold for a few more production runs because people aren't clearing them out instantly because resellers and the collectors sense retirement.  This could be good or bad for those that do actually buy.  It could mean that you might end up with stock in inventory that not as many have built up, or it could mean that legos days as a premium brand are beginning to wane, and the secondary market is contracting and retiring sets might not have decent resale potential..  Tricky times for many of us..

I think you have called it 100%. Chapeau.

[Val-E]

The first large exclusive retirements are not far away now - maybe we will even see some in European 2xVIP or by BF.

Reviewing my list of candidates with latest info, I am going with:

PS, SOH, SC, EV, FM, SW and WTS (easy picks), SH, KWEM as sure fire EOL´s and SHIELD and Mini as  50/50 gambles. Airjitzu would be my joker.

Not this years for T1, PC and TB.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Val-E

[Voltron]

11 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The first large exclusive retirements are not far away now - maybe we will even see some in European 2xVIP or by BF.

Reviewing my list of candidates with latest info, I am going with:

PS, SOH, SC, EV, FM, SW and WTS (easy picks), SH, KWEM as sure fire EOL´s and SHIELD and Mini as  50/50 gambles. Airjitzu would be my joker.

Not this years for T1, PC and TB.

Based on my recent lego shop visits / other retailer stocks, SOH is the only one I would say is most likely to go by end of this year. Everything else still up in the air.

[kris_1973]

FYI: PetShop 35R6

[landphieran]

EV from Amazon, all 38R6

[exciter1]

EV from Amazon, all 38R6

Looks like I can still get some.

[LegoBro]

Slave 1 ion backorder again at shop at home.