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42056 - Porsche 911 GT3 RS


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4 hours ago, redghostx said:

SSD says hi.

You think comparing LEGO Star Wars to LEGO Technic is ever a good idea when analysing investment potential of (the most expensive) sets? We have seen flagship Technic sets struggle recently growth-wise. The Crawler has - after his days of quick-flipping happiness - reached planet earth again (and was limited, which the Porsche is not). The SSD has been known for 30 years inside the most powerful movie license ever. The Porsche 911 GT3 RS is something very new. I don't see too much comparison potential between SSD and the Porsche. Sydney Opera House can also say "Hi"...

Edited by Frank Brickowski
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Wow, what a way to quickly negate any valid points you may have previously made in this thread.

LEGO Technic Porsche 911 GT3 RS coming off.

So everyone buys 1/mo X 24 mo X 10,000 members .. Yeah that sounds like a great plan for the set to appreciate ... 

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I don't understand why more AFOLs don't like technic sets.

All my UCS, Star Wars, Ideas and architecture sets get built once and displayed.  I buy technic sets for their rebuild factor. Most sets come with 2 official  builds and plenty of Mocs. The number of options out there for sets like 24hr Race Car and Street Motorcycle on rebrickable makes them great value for money on an entertainment level. 

Edited by Fenix_2k1
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I don't know why, but I much prefer the BWE to the Porsche. For me it doesn't actually look like it "does" enough. I prefer Technic to be PF sets, and to have plenty of moving things. Need a couple of XL motors to get this 911 moving!

I think the 911 will attract more buyers from outside the existing AFOL community, whereas BWE probably won't to the same degree

I can't see the 911 reaching 3xRRP. That would be what? £750 here in the UK? Seems unlikely IMHO, YMMV

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6 minutes ago, Seal Cutter said:

I don't know why, but I much prefer the BWE to the Porsche. For me it doesn't actually look like it "does" enough. I prefer Technic to be PF sets, and to have plenty of moving things. Need a couple of XL motors to get this 911 moving!

I think the 911 will attract more buyers from outside the existing AFOL community, whereas BWE probably won't to the same degree

I can't see the 911 reaching 3xRRP. That would be what? £750 here in the UK? Seems unlikely IMHO, YMMV

This set being the first in a new Technic "Ultimate" line, I can see it doing very well a few years from now. Some will not get the set now, out of disinterest or simply because they are not yet interested in this hobby, get the next ones and realize they need the Porsche to complete their collection.

The early UCS are still doing very well, even when sold used.

Edited by Pomodoro
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I just don't understand why ppl are still using past experience to predict future performance of the new Lego sets given the significant changes in the Lego secondary market that we saw started in 2015 and the potential changes in TLG behavior in the future.

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Technic is much less popular than other themes (Star Wars, Creator Expert). I think this is something to consider. Also, we still don't know if the set will be on shelves for 2 years or more, or if there will be one ultimate set per year.
 

It's all pure speculation, but that's the heart of investing: factoring what you know to try and predict a behavior. That's not a science, that's a mix of historical trends and assumptions. There is no way to predict anything, it has a lot to do with intuition.

Edited by Pomodoro
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10 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I think you have to use every bit of information available.  History and future may be different but there are still patterns, even if they're not the obvious ones that have been used before. 

To me, picking a Lego set to invest is like gambling nowadays. Pick the right set, you win; pick the wrong set, you lose. As for which set is the right set, I don't think anyone can really know beforehand now.

You can do all the analyses that you want, but I suspect that it probably will only help you filter out some obvious loser sets, but it won't really help you pick the right set.

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I wouldn't go as far as calling it gambling.  You have to buy pretty badly to lose a load of money.

The problem is that a lot are searching for the sets that make the huge profits, and if they don't hit the multiple mrsp mark, they are losers.

If a bank offered people 50% interest  over 2 years people would queue for days to sign up. With lego investing now people want to achieve %200-300 in 2 -3 years. Picking the set well in advance that will do that is largely blind luck, but it's still not a gamble. 

Edited by Fenix_2k1
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4 hours ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I don't understand why more AFOLs don't like technic sets.

This is simply because Technic sets are not Display sets.  Plain and simple.  No one wants to display a random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes on their office shelf.

This set transcends the standard Technic crowd.  It actually will appeal to AFOL's that typically stick to Star Wars and Creator and other larger display sets. 

This is the Technic equivalent of UCS.  This is UTS (Ultimate Technic Series)

I already have seen this pop up on my Facebook feed from friends who care NOTHING about Lego, but have shared some link about this set.  It will definitely perform better than any other Technic set in history. 

How well simply depends on the hoarde and how long TLG decides produce it.  The demand will be there for sure.  It will all come down to supply.

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5 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Sydney Opera House can also say "Hi"...

...and Sydney Opera House isn't retired yet.

We play this game partially because we don't know, with certainty, the performance of any set once retired. It's human nature.

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11 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

This is simply because Technic sets are not Display sets.  Plain and simple.  No one wants to display a random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes on their office shelf.

I agree with the rest of your comment, but that is just not true. Summing up the Technic line as "a random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes" is fallacious, at best. In recent years the Technic sets have shown a very good "displayability", look at the AROCS, the Mobile Crane MKII... Look at what's coming, the Xerion is very accurate, so is the new Volvo. These are great display sets. We're way past the era of skeletal Technic sets. 

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39 minutes ago, Pomodoro said:

I agree with the rest of your comment, but that is just not true. Summing up the Technic line as "a random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes" is fallacious, at best. In recent years the Technic sets have shown a very good "displayability", look at the AROCS, the Mobile Crane MKII... Look at what's coming, the Xerion is very accurate, so is the new Volvo. These are great display sets. We're way past the era of skeletal Technic sets. 

I think this is a case of beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  I completely agree Technic has come a long way from before, and my comment regarding "random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes" was a little excessive, and I apologize for that.  

While you and many other Technic fans might believe that an AROC and a Mobile Crane MKII are display worthy sets, there are still wires, and holes everywhere.  It is not majestic in any way.  It is not sleek.  The Porsche is sleek.  It covers up most of the Technic aspect with the display plates.

When you compare to other large display models, the Technic sets can't hold their own.  The Taj Mahal is gorgeous.  The Millenium Falcon is iconic and a pleasure to look at.  The Imperial Shuttle and Imperial Star Destroyer are very accurate representations of what they represent.  The AROC and Mobile Crane ARE NOT ACCURATE Representations.  They have the general shape correct, but there are not holes in beams all over real life vehicles.  While the AROCS is closer to a real life version, it just isn't something that the average AFOL is going to want to display.

The main thing, is that Technic has lacked that mainstream appeal.  The Porsche set can break this mold and finally bring Technic to the masses. 

Edited by Rimmit
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2 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

When you compare to other large display models, the Technic sets can't hold their own.  The Taj Mahal is gorgeous.  The Millenium Falcon is iconic and a pleasure to look at.  The Imperial Shuttle and Imperial Star Destroyer are very accurate representations of what they represent.  The AROC and Mobile Crane ARE NOT ACCURATE Representations.  They have the general shape correct, but there are not holes in beams all over real life vehicles.  While the AROCS is closer to a real life version, it just isn't something that the average AFOL is going to want to display.

 

Saying Technic has holes is the same as saying Taj Mahal has studs.

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17 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

While you and many other Technic fans might believe that an AROC and a Mobile Crane MKII are display worthy sets, there are still wires, and holes everywhere.

That's the whole point, at least to me. You get to see a fairly accurate representation of a vehicle/machine but at the same time you can easily access the mechanical components and see how they work together. They look just fine on a shelf, and you get to learn and apply basic mechanical principles. If I want an exact depiction, there's the Creator Expert line, I have all 3 cars, but I don't like them as much as the Technic sets. I'm actually a bit disappointed in the fact that the gearbox of the Porsche is entirely covered on the underside1. Hopefully the body is a drop-in component².

 

1.underside.jpg

 

2. paragraph_3.jpg

 

Edited by Pomodoro
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28 minutes ago, lego rules said:

Saying Technic has holes is the same as saying Taj Mahal has studs.

I agree. IMO the Technic holes are no more a distraction to the model than the studs on every Lego set or the pixelation of using mostly square parts. 

I think the real turn off for AFOLs has been the genre. The most challenging Technic sets are mainly construction vehicles, which have limited appeal both for building and displaying. However if TLG released a $350 Technic AT-AT I'm sure AFOLs would be waiting in line, as I expect they will be with this Porsche.

Edited by gbg108
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Missing in this discussion is what type of Technic sets have performed well traditionally.  While this shouldn't be a surprise to most here, Construction Vehicles have almost always performed better than any other Technic sets.  I don't see this changing - folks that drop big $ on Technic sets likely believe the Technic format represents these construction vehicles better than any other vehicle type.  In my opinion, you will always be more likely to see a large construction vehicle in the office of a General Contractor, Steel Erector or Excavation Contractor than you are to see this Porsche in a CEO's office.

I'm not sure I agree this set will somehow transcend prior trends.  It will likely grow slower than UCS or Advanced Models (similar to other large Technic sets), and I just don't see this going higher than 2x MSRP.  This is not an indictment of the set (I will be buying one ASAP), but just a reality check from past Technic experience.  I think the LE 4x4 Crawer is an appropriate comparison, although I can see the Porsche being more popular given the license.  I just don't see it being a powerhouse along the 4x-5x MSRP trajectory.

Here's a link to my two previous blog article about Technic investing:

 

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i think the $300 retail and Lego not mentioning (easily) integration of Power Functions prob allows us to predict how this set will perform before retirement.  it might fly off shelves early (early adopters & flippers) on but will then sales will slow down.  while very cool looking, what you get in the box and during the build process doesn't come close to $300.

 

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2 hours ago, Rimmit said:

This is simply because Technic sets are not Display sets.  Plain and simple.  No one wants to display a random conglomeration of gears and bricks with holes on their office shelf

My father (60) has four large Lego Technic sets in his office on display. He's a lawyer specialised in construction law, thus most of his sets are construction related i.e. 8043, 42030 and 8110. This Porsche might be the first non construction set he is going to get.

After reading all of the thread I wonder if people who question this set know about the 'Porsche myth' at all. The 911 has a very loyal fan base all over the world.

Someone said this 911 GT3 RS is a relatively new model. Yes that is true, but it is a 911 nevertheless and it is the first 911 that Lego delivers in a bigger scale.

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On 4/26/2016 at 10:12 AM, Mos_Eisley said:

Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see anything about the first few being the numbered ones. It sounded to me like every set will have a numbered tile. 

The XXXX0000 example tile could suggest 00000000 - 99990000 to give that 10,000 limited number of sets. The fact that it wasn't XXXXXXXX indicates to me that the four zeroes are static.

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