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Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
Jabba Desilijic Tiure...AKA...Jabba the Hutt.  The biggest Alien slug this side of Tatooine.  But are the LEGO sets designed around this "festering, mountainous pustule"worth anything on the LEGO secondary market?  Are the older Jabba LEGO sets "sluggish" when financial growth and appreciation are concerned, or are they a worthwhile investment, "prized" by LEGO investors and collectors?  Also, how does the recent Turkish Mosque incident affect the new Jabba the Hutt LEGO sets...if at all?  Let's begin by looking at the first generation Jabba sets.

 
  I was never a huge Jabba the Hutt fan to be quite honest.  Out of all the STAR WARS characters that played somewhat major roles in the films, Jabba and Jar Jar Binks ran neck and neck in the least likeable category for STAR WARS characters in my opinion.  That being said, as an avid collector of STAR WARS LEGO sets, I did purchase the original four Jabba-related LEGO sets years back and stored them away.  Fast forward a few years and I noticed these rather simple and uninspiring STAR WARS LEGO sets(One can make a case about the Sail Barge being an interesting set) were appreciating very well.  Take a look at the chart below of the four original Jabba LEGO sets:
 
 
Set Name Set # Pieces (MiniFigs) Launch Year MSRP (US$) Current Price (US$) Current ROI (%) High Price (US$) (Date) High ROI (%) CAGR(%)
Jabba's Message 4475 46(3) 2003 6.99 34.59 394.85 49.85 6/2012 614.59 17.35
Jabba's Prize 4476 40(2) 2003 6.99 35.86 413.02 49.35 4/2012 606 17.76
Jabba's Palace 4480 231(4) 2003 29.99 140.48 368.42 209.35 3/2012 598.06 16.7
Jabba's Sail Barge 6210 781 2006 74.99 326.3 335.12 406.57 5/2012 442.16 23.38 The first three Jabba sets were released in the same year and were meant to work together as a set.  As stated earlier, these sets were very basic and besides a couple interesting minifigures like Bib Fortuna, a half naked Princess Leia, and a fat maxifigure named Jabba, there wasn't much to get LEGO investors and collectors excited.  Yet, these three small sets exploded in growth and averaged around 600% ROI(Return on Investment) at their high water mark.  Maybe it was the uniqueness of the Jabba character or their low cost, whatever the reason, these three sets ended up being quite profitable to those LEGO fans that owned them.  Three years later, the Jabba Sail Barge was released and replicated the Sarlacc monster scene, quite well I may add.  The Sail Barge was realistic and had 800 pieces and 8 minifigures, which is great for a $75 set.  It made for a very nice display set...and play set.  This Jabba set also did very well, exhibiting over 400% ROI at its high point.  The point I am trying to make is that the first version of the Jabba the Hutt sets did quite well in the secondary LEGO market, even being somewhat ordinary.  They have peaked in value from the looks of it, but you cannot scoff at a 600% Return on Investment for three of the four sets and even the Sail Barge returned 400% growth.  Will this translate to the newer remakes of the sets that  are still available today?  And how will the potential early retirement of the new 9516 Jabba's Place affect its future value and the other new Jabba sets?  Let's take a look at the four new Jabba the Hutt-related sets:  
 
 
Set Name Set # Pieces (MiniFigs) Launch Year MSRP (US$) Current Price (US$) ROI One Month (%) ROI Six Month (%) ROI Total (%) CAGR(%) Desert Skiff 9496 213(4) 2013 19.99 26.4 11.25 2.68 5.64 5.64  
  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Escape from the jaws of the Sarlacc aboard the Desert Skiff! Hovering over the deadly Sarlacc Pit, Luke prepares to meet his fate aboard the Desert Skiff. Will he be made to walk the plank and be eaten by the ferocious Sarlacc? Or will his friend Lando Calrissian help him escape the clutches of the renowned bounty hunter, Boba Fett? You decide! Includes 4 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Lando Calrissian, Boba Fett and Kithaba.  
 
Includes 4 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Lando Calrissian, Boba Fett and Kithaba Features Desert Skiff and Sarlacc Pit Desert Skiff features retractable plank, flick missile and weapons locker Sarlacc Pit features opening mouth large enough to fit a minifigure Also includes 4 blasters, Lightsaber and axe Escape the jaws of the Sarlacc! Overpower Boba Fett and Kithaba! Fire the missile! Desert Skiff measures over 1" (5cm) high and 9" (24cm) long Sarlacc Pit measures over 3" (10cm) high and 3" (9 cm) wide BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: While not a Jabba set per se, the Desert Skiff plays an important role in the Sarlacc Pit scene in the Return of the Jedi, along with Jabba and his sail barge.  Unlike the older 6210 Jabba's Sail Barge, which included the Desert Skiff and Sarlacc monster, these new sets separate the new 75020 Jabba's Sail Barge and Desert Skiff into two distinct sets.  If you want to complete the scene, you need the 9496 Desert Skiff to do so.  As for the set itself, I really like the set.  With over 200 pieces and 4 quality minifigures, the set is a decent deal at $25.  What's even better is this set gets discounted quite frequently around the $17-$20 range, so buy multiples of this set if possible.  It is quite a value and is an excellent LEGO set for the novice LEGO investor or investor with limited funds.  
 
Set Name Set # Pieces (MiniFigs) Launch Year MSRP (US$) Current Price (US$) ROI One Month (%) ROI Six Month (%) ROI Total (%) CAGR(%) Rancor Pit 75005 380(4) 2013 59.99 58.14 -10.84 N/A -3.08 -3.08   LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Help Luke escape the clutches of the mighty rancor! Build a famous scene from Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi™ with this stackable set! Jedi Master Luke Skywalker is trapped in the Rancor™ Pit beneath Jabba the Hutt’s Palace and must escape. Look for a way out before the gate lifts and the mighty rancor makes an entrance! Battle the rancor with the bone before he eats the Gamorrean guard. Then, find the hidden compartment with a secret key or drop the gate on the space beast before it’s too late! Combine with LEGO® Star Wars™ 9516 Jabba’s Palace for a stackable scene with a trapdoor into the Rancor Pit! Includes rancor, skeleton and 3 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Malakili and Gamorrean Guard.  

 
Includes rancor, skeleton and 3 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Malakili and a Gamorrean guard Features opening gate, secret room and hidden compartment Rancor features movable arms, jaw, hands and fingers Accessories include bone, 2 keys, pitchfork and a bucket Find the hidden key in the secret compartment! Open the gate or smash it down onto the rancor! Collect the first-ever LEGO® Star Wars™ rancor creature! Rancor Pit measures over 6" (16cm) high, 7" (19cm) wide and 7" (20cm) deep Combine with LEGO Star Wars™ 9516 Jabba’s Palace for a stackable scene with trapdoor into the Rancor Pit! Rancor stands over 3" (10cm) tall
  BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The Rancor Pit is a rather interesting set.  By itself, it almost looks incomplete, but in tandem with the 9516 Jabba's Palace, it makes for a rather unique and wonderful play and display LEGO set(s).  Taking a look at just the Rancor Pit set, one would be rather unimpressed as a whole.  Besides the awesome Rancor monster maxifigure and a somewhat cool Malakili minifigure, the rest of the set is rather uninspiring in my opinion.  With almost 400 pieces, it's not a real value for $59.99 and looks unfinished by itself.  There are some cute features like the skeleton and large gate that slides up and down, but otherwise, it's nothing special...until you match it with the 9516 Jabba's Palace.  Then, the Rancor Pit shines and becomes a must buy.  The combined 75005/9516 is quite an impressive display together...and very playable at the same time.  From an investment standpoint, I consider the Rancor Pit and Jabba's Palace as one unit and plan to market them that way in the future.  For every Jabba's Palace I own, I also own a Rancor Pit.  With all the recent activity with a possible early EOL for the Jabba's Palace, you have to wonder  about the future of this set as well.  Maybe an earlier EOL for this set is a possibility.  Regardless, see if you can pick one up at a discount.  I have seen them in the low $50 range.  Overall, a must have for any STAR WARS LEGO fan or LEGO investor.  
 
Set Name Set # Pieces (MiniFigs) Launch Year MSRP (US$) Current Price (US$) ROI One Month (%) ROI Six Month (%) ROI Total (%) CAGR(%)
Jabba's Palace 9516 717(9) 2012 119.99 86.62 -8.16 -27.34 -27.81 -27.81   LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Rescue Han Solo from Jabba the Hutt's desert palace! At Jabba's Palace™ on Tatooine, Princess Leia is disguised as Boushh as she and Chewbacca try to rescue the carbonite-frozen Han Solo. Can she get past the roof-mounted missiles, defense guns and surveillance equipment to reach them? Or will Jabba and his motley band of followers capture the princess and entrap her beneath Jabba's sliding throne? Includes 9 minifigures: Jabba, Salacious Crumb, Bib Fortuna, Gamorrean Guard, Oola, Han Solo, Princess Leia in Boushh outfit, Chewbacca and B'omarr Monk.  
Includes 9 minifigures: Jabba, Salacious Crumb, Bib Fortuna, Gamorrean Guard, Oola, Han Solo, Princess Leia in Boushh outfit, Chewbacca and B'omarr Monk Features sliding throne with trap door and hidden treasure, entrance gate with movable guns, flick missile on detachable roof and detachable watchtower Also includes Han Solo in carbonite, handcuffs and Jabba's water pipe Weapons include medium blaster, blaster pistol, blaster rifle, thermal detonator, axe and Boushh's lance blade Jabba the Hutt features poseable head, body and arms! Avoid the trap door! Release Han from his carbonite prison! Jabba's Palace™ measures over 9" (25cm) high, 11" (29cm) wide and 7" (19cm) deep
  BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: WOW...What can you say about this set that hasn't been discussed over the recent Turkish Mosque incident?  Let's rewind for a minute and take a look at this set before the recent activity.  The 9516 Jabba's Palace was a remake of the much smaller 4480 Jabba's Palace, that was released in 2003.  Not only was the older Jabba's Palace smaller, it was just very basic and inaccurate, unlike the new 9516 which is a very close replica(Maybe too close...LOL) to the movie structure and characters.  Yet, even with its shortcomings, the 4480 Jabba's Palace appreciated very, very well...exhibiting almost 600% growth from retail to its peak on March of 2012!  In comparison, the new Jabba's Palace is very well done, with accurate and creative minifigures and a structure that is a very close depiction of the movie Jabba's Palace.  So will this set appreciate like the older version?  Who knows?  But I really like the set on numerous levels, even standing alone...and I REALLY like the set when built in combination with the 75005 Rancor Pit.  I like the future of this set(s), even without the most recent rumors of a premature retirement and feel that regardless of the EOL outcome of the set, future growth in the LEGO secondary market will be strong to very strong.  
Set Name Set # Pieces (MiniFigs) Launch Year MSRP (US$) Current Price (US$) ROI One Month (%) ROI Six Month (%) ROI Total (%) CAGR(%)
Jabba's Sail Barge 75020 850(6) 2013 119.99 NOT YET RELEASED   LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: NOT YET RELEASED
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: There is not any definitive points I can make on the set yet because it has not been released, but from the looks of the current pictures available, the newer Jabba's Sail Barge looks smaller.  Even though the piece count is higher, it looks like less large brown plates were used to reproduce the ship in the similar manner as the older 6210 Sail Barge, thus using more smaller pieces but a smaller model.  Also missing from the set is the Desert Skiff and Sarlacc Monster from the earlier version, along with a couple of minifigures.  A simple solution to this would be to combine the 9496 Desert Skiff with this set to complete the scene.  As with the new Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit combo, I feel the combination of the new Jabba's Sail Barge and Desert Skiff is a winner from a build and investment standpoint.  Even though the set looks slightly inferior in some ways, I still see strong future growth for this set.
  You've come a long way, baby...and that's how I feel about the remakes of the Jabba the Hutt LEGO sets.  Taking the whole Turkish Mosque situation out of the Jabba's Palace potential in the secondary LEGO market value, I see a very solid future for this set and the others in the category.  Before the rumors of early EOL, I was already buying multiples of Jabba's Palace and the Rancor Pit to package together for future resale.  I love the remake.  I love the combination of the two.  Just a wonderful display and play set(s).  The new Jabba's Palace is a 99.99% improvement over the original.  The Rancor Pit only sweetens the deal in my opinion.  The Rancor maxifigure is one bad @$$ figure and the combination of the two sets works flawlessly.  Another big plus is the improved Jabba maxifigure, which is leaps and bounds better than the old one.  As for the new Sail Barge, it is probably a push when compared to the older set.  Both are quality sets.  Throw in the Desert Skiff with the new Sail Barge and you have another winning combination that will undoubtedly do well in the future investment market.
  Now throw in the potential early EOL and unique story of the Jabba's Palace and you have the makings of a superb investment.  As of this writing, the set was still in stock at many major retailers, including LEGO S@H and Amazon.com, so you can still buy one at MSRP.  Whether or not you will see $88 prices for this set again, I cannot say, but even at retail prices, these sets, when matched up together, could be very profitable in the future.  You saw the madness on a small scale when the Jabba's Palace was hard to find, imagine what will happen when and if LEGO pulls the proverbial plug on the set.  You also have to take into consideration the future of the Rancor Pit if Jabba's Palace is not there to complete the package.  Does that go to an early grave as well?  At this juncture, it's hard to pinpoint an approximate EOL date besides The LEGO Group's late 2013 notification.  The less time on the primary market, the more valuable the set will eventually become.  My personal opinion on the claim of racial and religious undertones of the set is much ado about nothing.  All LEGO did was reproduce the actual STAR WARS movie structure in a very accurate manner.  If anyone needs to shoulder some blame for insulting Muslims and their religion, maybe George Lucas needs to step forward.  It's really the design and characters of Lucas that is causing a stir, but as I said before, it is a minor issue and I don't believe any harm was meant from any party involved.
  So, any way you slice it, the Jabba the Hutt sets are potential big winners in my book.  Like their earlier versions, these new Jabba sets should do very well when they are eventually retired...maybe even before they are retired as illustrated by the shortages and high eBay auction prices of recent days.  Although Jabba is one unsavory and unattractive character, his LEGO sets are top notch and very attractive as potential investments.  If you haven't bought a Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit, do so.  You never know when the EOL timer runs out...  
 
 
 
A new category in our Brickvesting Blog, BRICK BRATS: The Teenage LEGO Investor's Blog, will share some of the thoughts and words of some of our younger BrickPicker members. It will be a feature that we will share from time to time with the entire community. LEGO investing is a growing phenomenon that crosses all walks of life and different generations as well. The younger crowd might be able to teach some of us old dogs, some new tricks...
Our inaugural set of articles are combined into one big release. They were written by Darth LEGO and Comicblast. I hope you enjoy them and please feel free to comment on them afterwards...
TOYS R' US: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly...
By Darth LEGO
You walk into a Toys R' Us(TRU) one day and you see Jabba’s Palace, set 9516, on the shelf. You then look at the price. Your eyes nearly pop out of your head...$164.88! You then look at the other sets and almost all of them are overpriced. Why would a retail store do such a thing? Well, I’m going to try to explain why Toys R' Us would do such a thing and discuss some of TRU's other sales practices and whether they are good, bad or even downright ugly!
The Good
BOGO 50% off!!! I know many members on the BrickPicker site like TRU's Buy One Get One(BOGO) policy. It makes paying prices over retail a little bit easier to swallow. TRU consistently run specials of BOGO 40-50% off.
Here is Popalzai’s comment from a thread...
“For me TRU BOGO rocks...Especially when you live near NYC...Because in the NYC TRU stores they have BOGO on all the sets, including large sets like Death Star...SSD...Tower Bridge ETC...What I have noticed is that they did not hike the prices on large sets…SSD and DS were at $399...I even saw a Haunted House for $169.99 and BOGO...I think with BOGO and retail price, nothing else matches TRU!!” (Link to post: Click Here)
Here is Hxckid88’s post...
“BEST DAY EVER….Got Helms Deep for $90.00. I didn't have to argue with them at all...they price matched. I also got 6 Minecraft sets. They didn’t even check the ad. I simply stated I can get this set cheaper somewhere else and they said OK. One can only speculate what a dishonest person would have done. I then went to the other TRU where I had the exact opposite situation as the manager was difficult to deal with. That’s the ever brief Cliff Notes version of my find, as I’m too lazy to type everything that transpired, but it was quite a day. ALWAYS talk to a manager, you never know what they may do for you. Just hone your approach, have a game plan and be polite.” (Link to post: Click Here)
Popalzai’s comment brings up another great point. Toys R' Us has larger sets for sale than other retail large brick and mortar stores(not online), like Walmart or Target. This fact makes the BOGO deal even sweeter for us LEGO investors and collectors. This is also convenient for people who don’t live near LEGO stores(...which usually carries the larger sets). I think you can find some good deals during BOGO, especially on higher priced items that are close in price, which enables you to maximize discounts. Now we will get into the bad sales practices that Toys R' Us exhibits.
The Bad
Item is damaged during shipping.
I’ve ordered only once from Toys R' Us and it was from their website. The box came so beat up the actual Lego box had a gaping hole. It was absolutely horrible and they even wanted me to pay to ship it back. I ended up returning it at a store. I know this can be a problem anytime you ship something from anywhere, but I paid $15 dollars to ship it and they put only one thin layer of bubble wrap around the set.
Here is Talon’s comment about an order not nearly as bad as mine, but still wasn’t satisfactory.
“So today I received the two 7965 Millenium Falcons that I had ordered from TRU (@$99) and NO shipping damage. But, and a BIG BUT, one of them has a hole poked in the front about the size of a finger. It obviously occurred before shipping. It was sent from a fulfillment center in OH. Now I need to decide if I am going to build that one or not. I had no plans to build one in the near future but you never know. Unfortunately, I have to decide now because I will have a limited time to return it. Gotta love TRU!” (Link to post: Click Here)
This is another example of bad practices during the fulfillment of online orders. The only way to avoid this problem is to go to a store and pick out the perfect box, which for many people is not possible. Also, brick and mortar stores don't carry every LEGO set. Like I stated earlier, Toys R' Us is not alone with poor packaging techniques. Amazon, eBay sellers and even LEGO itself messes up occasion, but TRU's customer service is the weakest of all major LEGO retailers, so a simple return becomes a major hassle.
Poor Customer Service (Not receiving conformation emails or reward points.)
This is just poor management from the executives on down. They should care enough about their customers and give them at least okay customer service. When customers don’t receive their order conformation emails, they are left to wonder if they will even get what they ordered.
TheDarkness had this problem...
“…I have placed 2 orders for TRU under their latest deal. My credit card has been charged, yet I haven’t received a confirmation email for either. Neither order show up on my account. I have sent off an email, but have heard that TRU are useless with their customer service…”
This is a major problem for people. Sometimes TRU might just cancel your order out of the blue without giving you any reason why they did so. Another problem is people not receiving their reward points after purchasing from TRU.
Stackables had this issue.
“I have to get this off my chest. I have made 2 purchases over the last 2 weeks and have not received any reward points. TRU is also running a promotion where you get 10% back and double reward points if you use the TRU credit card.
I called them 6 days ago to report the issue. Of course the person I talked to couldn’t do anything and forwarded everything to corporate. She told me to wait 5 days. 5 days have passed and in the meantime, I placed another order. Which, of course, I didn’t receive rewards for that order either.
That brings us to today. I called, gave them my reference number and told them about my new order problem. The ordeal sent me to 5 different TRU customer service people, 5!!!! Nobody could really help me. Finally the 5th person I talked to said she was going to send the report to the “Rewards” people or something and wait another 5 days. I assume this was probably already done. Absolutely pathetic. I better get something more out of this fiasco.
I have no clue why I keep dealing with them.”(Link to post: Click Here)
This shows their customer service is a wreck. You shouldn’t have to call them five times to get something done about a problem. Amazon would fix any problem with their transactions almost immediately. TRU needs to step up their game big time if they want happy customers.
The Ugly
This is probably one of the worst stories I’ve heard about rude employees.
Let’s look at Mushedroom’s incident...
“So...I was on the hunt for G.I. Joe Kre-O figs and then got swooped up by some LEGO sets that I hadn’t seen in my local TRU. The Hawthorne location was a store that had a lot of what I was looking for. BUT…What I didn’t realize or know was that there is a caveat with shopping at the Hawthorne location…they are an experimental “bump up” store, where they actually charge more for EVERYTHING! So everything I had purchased was marked up!
I didn’t understand why this was the case and immediately I was greeted by a supervisor with a really bad attitude. I inquired about why the prices were different and I even produced a receipt from a different TRU displaying the differences in prices for the minifigs, various small LEGO sets and Kre-O items that I bought at 2 other TRU’s before coming to this store and then asked for price adjustments for all of the items I was buying. One of them was a sealed case of minifigs. They grabbed me one and this woman opened it, even after I requested her to not do so, and then half-yelled at me saying she needed to count each out. I told her there were 60 in each sealed case. She even had an opened case on the counter…with all the info she needed but she was being a jerk and opened 1 side of the box, until the supervisor told her to use the already opened one. Then I asked for the empty factory shipping box and she practically threw it at me and all the while she had this vibe about her like I was some kind of badgering/bickering parent and she was a pissed off teen filled with angst…
After she disrespectfully threw the box at me I got upset and firmly called her attention and asked her flat out, “Are you having a bad day?” She responded with, “No, I'm fine. I don’t know what you mean.” And I fired back with, “Because this...ALL OF THIS…“I can’t be bothered with” attitude isn’t working for me and I don’t appreciate your attitude. I'm about to spend over $300 here and you’re acting like my business is unwanted here. Is this the case?” That’s when a supervisor came over and said, “I'm so sorry. Do you want another case of minfigures? I can get you one.” He started to call the back. I told him no, it's OK, but that I was looking for Walking Dead figures, so he took me to a section in the back and I found some. While in the back I asked him what her problem was and then I laughed because she was a supervisor. He told me that he was her supervisor and apologized for her behavior and then told me to call him whenever I needed anything. I grabbed up about 12 figures and walked back to this woman. Meanwhile she had been price adjusting everything and then began to apologize for her behavior.
I'm not one to kick a dead horse so I let it go, but I was seriously shocked at how POORLY this person acted and she is supposed to be the example of what this corporation is trying to achieve in GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE. At the end of it all, she had price adjusted everything and again apologized for her attitude. So all in all, I got what I came for, received discounts and price adjusting and even got more items than I was expecting.
Bottom line…
DON’T TAKE ANY KIND OF ABUSE FROM TRU EMPLOYEES. But at the same time, DON’T OVERREACT emotionally. Handling a situation with reserve and poise serves to be a better counterattack.” (Link to post: Click Here)
This is pretty sad. If TRU ever really wants loyal customers, they have to start with the employees that directly deal with the customers. Maybe the supervisor was having a bad day, I really don't know, but these stories are far too common to ignore. The customer will probably not come back if you treat them like the lady did.
At least he ended up getting what he wanted. I truly believe this is one of the ugliest things about Toys R Us.
The main ugly issue I have with Toys R' Us is price gouging. They do it because they can hide it with their BOGO offers. Many LEGO sets are marked up 20% or higher over LEGO MSRPs. But if you can find a location with some large sets close to MSRP, then the BOGO can be an effective way to save some money.
Conclusion
In conclusion, TRU is generally thought as a bad place to shop. However, many of us shop there for the BOGOs. Many of us LEGO investors are on the fence about buying from Toys R Us. I am in that boat as well and I’ll tell you why. They make the slightly overpriced sets worth it and you can get the bigger sets like the modular and USC Star Wars Sets. They also have nice deals during their BOGOs. I believe I would have a better experience from TRU if I went to a store and I’m willing to give them another shot. Let me know about your Toys R Us experience in the comments below. Good luck investing Brickpickers! – Darth Lego
“Ed”itor's Notes: I have to say that I agree with a lot of points that Darth LEGO made about Toys R' Us and its business practices. Their customer service is weak at best and their prices are usually MSRP or higher. That being said, you can find a very good deal with patience and some research. I bought two 10188 Death Stars a year back on a BOGO 50% off deal. Basically, I paid $300 each for the $400 sets. Not a bad deal. Let's take a look at Darth LEGO's second article..
The Magic Number: Investing in LEGO Sets on Sale
By Darth LEGO
We have all probably had this experience. Waiting and waiting for a good deal on a LEGO set and then before you know it, poof...it's sold out. Now you are left without that set you wanted to invest in and few options other than paying more than the retail price from the LEGO secondary market. I'll try to lay out some tips on when to buy a set and at what price(and % off) when there is a sale...
*** Please note that these tips vary from situation to situation and set to set.***
0-20% OFF: Only get a couple if you are certain it will retire in about the next 6 months or it is in the process of being retired or EOL(End of Line).
*** Monster Sets other than the Haunted House might fall into this range if it EOLs this Summer. ***
11-30% OFF: Once you start getting higher in this range, most LEGO sets are good buys. Just be sure that you won't be able to get it cheaper later.
*** Amazon Lego deals are usually in this range. ***
31-50% OFF: Any LEGO set is basically solid as far as investing goes. Don't wait too long so you don't miss out on the deals.
51%+ OFF: Always buy. You can't go wrong at this % and higher.
So what's the Magic Number(% off) so you won't be left empty handed or buy it too early before the real deals are enacted? I would say 30%. It's not too low so it leaves you more margin for profit, yet it won't probably sell out too fast, enabling you to get at least a couple of them. Themes like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings are going to be more popular, thus making some great deals, harder to find. Some City and Creator sets are more likely to have better deals. How well certain sets sell can vary from store to store which can affect deals on different themes. For example, my local stores always sell their Star Wars stock, but they have consistently had clearances on their Harry Potter and Ninjago sets because they just don't sell in my area. Where you live could be a totally different story and that makes a "good deal" sometimes hard to agree on.
In conclusion, everyone is going to feel different about when to buy a set. I'm just trying to lay out my personal guide and if you guys have any more tips/experiences, please feel free to share them below. Happy investing Brickpickers!
“Ed”itor's Notes: I usually use our Amazon Discounts Page as a good place to start finding deals. A set will catch my eye at 15% off. Then I really start to pay attention at 20%. I usually buy any and all sets 30% off and more, even if I hate the theme. Now, there are some popular sets like the 10228 Haunted House that will just not get discounted that much, so I will have to pay close to retail for that set. I did buy a few 10228s during LEGO's Black Friday's deal for 10% off plus free shipping, so that was a bonus. Just don't wait too long or within a week of being retired, you will be paying 10% or more on a LEGO set that was just on sale. Last but not least is Comicblast's article. Let's check it out...
Out of the Mouths of Babes: Teen LEGO Investing
By Comicblast
Before a person becomes an investor, he must first ask himself, “What am I interested in?” and “What is going to make me some money?” Common answers would be stocks, precious metals, like gold or silver, or even baseball cards. One day I brought this up with my older brother. I asked him, “Do you think I should invest in LEGO bricks and baseball cards?”
He replied, “In 20 years, no one will be interested in cards anymore. I think that people will still be interested in LEGO bricks in 20 years. Plus, it doesn’t take as long to make some money.”
Smart man...
As many others here on BrickPicker and others throughout the LEGO world, I discovered LEGO bricks upon my 3rd birthday. Now, three might seem like a young age to start playing with LEGO sets, but you see, they weren’t mine. I would grab a brick or two here and there from my older brother’s collection to make my own. At first they started out small, making a “camera” out of a door and window with a flat piece connecting it. Now that I am 13 years old, I have made much more large scale creations and MOCs, one of my proudest being my own version of Jabba’s Palace that I constructed for a contest, but forgot to submit.
From Building to Collecting…
I have heard numerous parents complain about LEGO bricks being “pricey” and saying that they don’t buy very many LEGO sets for their children because “once they build it, they take the little people and then put the set to the side, basically wasting my money.” This sounds very similar to the experiences of my family. I started out with small bits and pieces from other peoples' collections and eventually received my own set at the age of 6. This was just a little police car and oversized minifigure(everyone remember those Lego minifigs that have “3 stud butts” as I call them?). I probably played with this set for a couple weeks and then set it aside when I got another one and another and another. Soon the sets weren’t in any particular order and were just lumped together in a couple totes.
From Collecting to Investing…
Because parents also have made an “investment” into these sets, they are reluctant to throw them away. You, yourself are reluctant because they bring back memories. This basically leads to massive hoarding of LEGO bricks in the attic, basement, under the bed, and between the seat cushions on the sofa. Just like many of the other children across the world, I played with LEGO bricks at least once every couple months. Sometimes my building area would occupy the living room and kitchen, and other times, it would occupy my room. After awhile though, my LEGO-ing took a different turn.
Now, 11 years old, I wanted the LEGO sets that I wanted and rarely took “no” as an answer. Spending 5 hours a day, looking at eBay listings, with the search term, “lego star wars,” isn’t exactly the life your parents wish you to have, but they somehow persevered.
I am not exactly sure if this is how other parents are, but my parents soon began to limit the amount of “screen time” that my siblings and I could spend on a computer for recreational reasons. They were also very picky about my buying. One of the only ways that I could get my parents to give me permission to buy a set was by opening at least 5 different tabs of the last couple sales for that set. Looking at trending patterns of sets allowed my parents to figure out if I was spending my money well. Another way that I persuaded them to allow me to buy was by saying how good of an “investment” it was to buy it at that moment. Then I, of course, didn’t know a thing about investing at all, but I figured it was a big word and I had learned from debate team, that big words make you sound smart, only if you know what that word means. I was learning about supply and demand in Social Studies class, so I included terms like “annual return rate” and “capital gains” into my conversations, which promptly led to me being allowed to buy more freely.
This past year, we were staying at a hotel and we received a complimentary USA Today newspaper every morning. As most of us know, that was the fateful day that BrickPicker was on the front page of the financial segment of the newspaper. On the front page were the smiling faces of Ed and Jeff Mack. Two days later, I joined the ranks of many new investors of MISB (Mint In Sealed Box) sets.
The Afterword…
If you are reading this, you most likely are an AFOL, Adult Fan of Lego. You may be single, married, have kids, etc. Many of you might have forgotten the actual experiences that a child has with LEGO bricks and why a child will keep on buying more sets, since you haven’t been a child in 10+ years! This article’s purpose was to help you get a better understanding of the perspective of a 13 year old and his love for LEGO bricks and his introduction to making money from this love of the little plastic bricks. I hope you enjoyed it.
“Ed”itor's Notes: I can tell you that I have not forgotten my passion for buying LEGO sets. I was also a very demanding 11 year old. I remember asking for the 375 “Yellow” Castle for Christmas(for the plentiful yellow bricks)....and NOT GETTING IT!!! Oh boy! My mother got me a Technic 951 Bulldozer instead, saying it also had plenty of yellow bricks and that you “can't always get what you want.” Ironically, I also asked for and received the Rolling Stones “Hot Rocks” album that same Chrsitmas, with the song, “You can't always get what you want“ on it so fittingly. LOL.
I hope that you have enjoyed our first edition of the BRICK BRATS Blog. I will post more articles as they come in. Please contact me with your ideas and articles. Thanks. Ed Mack
Hi! For those who don’t know me(which is probably almost all of you, possibly even myself) I’ve been dabbling in collectibles for about two years. I have had a fair amount of success in gig posters and licensed movie posters(think Mondo, etc.) and limited edition vinyl records. In the last six months I’ve been really trying to get a foot in the door of the LEGO world. First, I love LEGO bricks. Second, I’m familiar with my post office, eBay and PayPal, and have a ready account to sell with. Third, I want to collect some LEGO sets for my future children (the wife is pregnant with a baby girl) to build, but also make some money with.
One of the first things any new LEGO investor probably hears is “buy what you love.” If that were the case, I would only have a lot of STAR WARS, Lord of the Rings/Hobbit and cool Modulars. Yes, if things went really badly, I could happily build these sets(although how many Bag Ends does any one man need in his Lord of the Rings/Hobbit MOC?) but it would be a little limiting. Since I found out I am going to be the proud new father of a baby girl, I started looking at Friends. And then I went further, back to Belville, which was one of the earlier girl LEGO themes that preceded Friends. I was drawn to the 7582 Royal Summer Palace and the 7586 Sunshine Home, a couple of the bigger sets from that line that have long since been retired. Not many are for sale, in terms of numbers, but the CAGR(Compound Annual Growth Rate) and ROI(Return on Investment) from retail are solid, at 17%/158% and 11%/71% respectively . I would gladly go back in time several years and scoop up a few of these sets for investment purposes. So...does that mean, despite my personal lack of enthusiasm for Friends LEGO theme, that it will be a solid investment? Let's take a look...
The current numbers suggest, yes, yes, a million times yes! The first wave of sets from January of 2012 are getting pretty hard to find and are already showing some nice gains. Here is a list of the Top 15 Friends sets based on CAGR. I call them the Friend's Fabulous Fifteen:
 
Image Set # Set Name Pieces MSRP(US$) Current Price CAGR(%) 30102 Olivia's Desk 26 3.97 7.74 94.96 3186 Emma's Horse Trailer 218 24.99 44.12 76.55 30105 Stephanie's Mailbox 41 3.99 6.91 73.18 3942 Heartlake Dog Show 183 19.99 33.21 66.13 3930 Stephanie's Outdoor Bakery 45 5.99 9.64 60.43 3063 Heartlake Flying 195 19.99 31.59 58.03 3931 Emma's Splash Pool 43 5.99 9.09 51.75 3065 Olivia's Tree House 191 19.99 29.45 47.32 3936 Emma's Fashion Studio 79 9.99 14.7 47.25 3937 Olivia's Speedboat 65 9.99 14.63 46.45 3939 Mia's Bedroom 85 9.99 14.35 43.64 3932 Andrea's Stage 87 9.99 14.14 41.54 3184 Camper 309 29.99 42.06 40.25 3183 Stephanies's Cool Convertible 130 14.99 44.12 38.29  
 
  There are a few others that have shown really nice gains from this first wave that could become quite sought after in the secondary market for those investors coming late to the game as well as for children who desire(and plead with their parents) to get sets that are unavailable at retail. The nice thing about these smallish sets is that even at double, triple or even quadruple the initial retail price, they still remain affordable to most parents with kids who want to rip open these sets and play with them. My child doesn’t play with Friends LEGO sets(yet) – she is just an embryo, people! – but I think that if a birthday or Christmas were on the horizon and my daughter had sets A, B and C that I would shell out $30 for Emma’s Fashion Studio (reg. Price $9.99) to complete her collection.
  Because most of the sets are small to medium size, I don’t think there are going to be massive monetary gains, even if there are solid CAGR gains. That will keep a lot of investors away. Also, they don’t appeal to (most?) men, perhaps not the majority of AFOLs and not to the majority of young boys, but I think that leaves an opening for the savvy investor who is happy to make a little money here and there. If you can track down the early 2012 sets at retail or the mid-2012 sets at a discount(recent sales have seen some of these sets at quite attractive prices), I would say throw caution to the wind, ignore the advisers who only want you to invest in what you love and instead invest in a hot product with a matching cartoon and solid CAGRs!
VITAL STATISTICS:
Brickpicker Alias: Veegs
Investment to Date: About $5,500
Sales to Date: $0
Wife (Currently Pregnant) Anger Level: xx/10: 6.5
Most Recent Acquisition: 2 Vampyre Castles @$73.50 each  
“ED”ITOR'S NOTE:
There has been much discussion on the BrickPicker forums after the recent LEGO Press Release in which illustrated another banner year for The LEGO group. Let's take a look at a portion of that press release....
LEGO Friends significantly exceeded expectations
The best-selling product lines in 2012 were LEGO City and LEGO STAR WARS™, followed by LEGO Ninjago (launched in 2011). The new product line, LEGO Friends, delivered a strategic milestone in 2012, selling much better than expected and becoming the fourth best-selling product line. Even though the LEGO Group more than doubled its production of LEGO Friends versus expectations, it was not possible to deliver all of the products demanded.
The red highlighted sentence illustrates an amazing point. LEGO doubled production of the Friends-themed sets, yet still couldn't meet demand. Wow! When is the last time you have heard of a LEGO theme being so popular that the LEGO factories couldn't keep pace with demand? I really don't know, but nevertheless, it is a fact that every savvy LEGO investor and reseller needs to pay attention to.
You would think every LEGO investor and reseller would be rushing out to buy some of those Fabulous Fifteen Friend's sets posted by Veegs. Well, not so fast. There is a large portion of experienced LEGO investors that don't want to touch these LEGO sets with a 10-foot pole. I wonder why? The Friends theme is near the top of the Theme CAGR List, at #2 behind the Monster Fighters. There is a large variety of sets, both large and small, cost effective and expensive and most are well thought out and creative LEGO sets, even though they are designed for little girls. Is that the issue? Quite Possibly. Little girl LEGO sets don't appear to get enough love from the majority male LEGO population. And in the defense of the male population, I can see why. Most LEGO investors are LEGO fans and collectors first and will base their investments on sets they like and would build. Their philosophy is that if the LEGO investment market ever implodes, they can feel better about their investment choice and build the sets. Count me in on this philosophy. But does this philosophy have any legs to stand on, or is it some sort of ridiculous antiquated behavior based on zero common sense?
The more I deal with LEGO investing, the more I realize that emotion has to be removed from the equation if you truly want to pick the best sets for strong growth. For the longest time I have subscribed to the “I only buy sets that I would want to build” theory and it has worked well for me over the years. But I have started to expand my LEGO investment choices to include sets I will never build. Why? To make money of course. I have ignored LEGO themes in the past as investments because I had no real interest in the sets. Take Harry Potter sets for instance. I could have bought Harry Potter sets years ago, instead I bought hundreds of STAR WARS sets, yet never considered Harry Potter sets as a potential investment...and lost out on some nice gains. I never saw one Harry Potter movie and could really care less, but recently, I started buying the Harry Potter sets because I changed my philosophy and I knew they would appreciate well after EOL. Although the Harry Potter sets are creative and accurate LEGO sets, I realize that I will never build one but I still value them as investments. This is how I view Friends sets.
Friends themed sets are wonderful. They are colorful, creative, fun, cute and contain many small features that go unnoticed by many, but can be appreciated by every LEGO fan out there. Obviously a huge hit with girls and rightfully so, these sets are having a hard time gaining respect from male LEGO investors. I really like these sets, but as with the Harry Potter sets, I won't buy any Friends sets to build. And I'm OK with that. I'm not buying Friends sets to build, I am buying them at a discount to sell later at a profit. It's as simple as that. I like making money and Friends sets are one of the LEGO themes that can make you a lot of money if invested in properly. I can't really give you any specific Friends sets that will do well after EOL, because they all seem to do well...even before EOL. If I would suggest some Friends-themed sets to potential investors, the larger sets like the 3185 Summer Riding Camp and 3315 Olivia's House would be two I would key on. But many sets, including many polybags and smaller boxed sets, have exploded in growth.
So all in all, I would suggest even “un”Friendly fans and investors dabble a little in the pink and purple LEGO sets. I know, many of you naysayers are predicting these are just one hit wonders, that in a couple of years, these sets and/or the entire theme will be permanently retired or unpopular. Many male LEGO investors will say that girls just won't get into collecting LEGO sets like boys do and I will counter with Barbie Doll collecting as an example of how women are possibly better collectors than men. The Barbie Doll collectible's market is years ahead of the LEGO collectible's market in time, sales and money. Some Barbie Dolls sell for $20,000.00+++!!! Women make for serious doll collectors and I can see it translating over to the LEGO Friends theme. There will be little girls that want all the Friends sets, even after they are retired. Just like boys who couldn't afford that 10179 Millennium Falcon in 2007 but can buy it now as an adult with extra discretionary income, there will be women who wanted to buy Olivia's House or the Summer Riding Camp as a child and couldn't afford it, but can buy it in the future when money is readily available.
Also, don't discount the “spoiled child” scenario. Imagine a child who wants every LEGO set and their enabling parents (I speak for myself here...) who will give their kids whatever they want to keep them quiet or see a smile. Any way you slice it, there are some solid reasons to buy Friends LEGO sets as investments, even if investing in Friends sets goes against some tried and true LEGO investment principles. You might not want to build the Friends LEGO sets in the physical sense, but with their current returns on investment and bright future in my opinion, you might want to build up your Brickfolio with the pink and purple sets..
We here at BrickPicker have often been accused of being too pro-LEGO investor.  There are some Bearish LEGO collectors out there and they have let me know on several occasions that we never post about the negatives of LEGO investing.  While many of you know that we are not shills for LEGO, there is still a silent minority of LEGO collectors and investors that think we promote the little ABS plastic bricks too much.  Well, today, that changes.  I am here to talk about the WORST PERFORMING LEGO SETS over the past six months...let's call them the Bottom 50.
  Basically, the “Bottom 50” is the BrickIndex, but in reverse.  The BrickIndex shows the top performing LEGO sets based on CAGR values over the past six months.  The chart below shows the worst performing LEGO sets based on CAGR values of all sets in our database.  Let's take a look at the CAGR Cellar Dwellers...
 
  THE BOTTOM 50...AKA...THE WORST PERFORMING LEGO SETS
Set # Set Name Year CAGR(-%) Theme 7591 ConstrucT-A-ZURG 2010 -26.21 Toy Story 8075 Neptune Carrier 2010 -19.33 Atlantis 10192 Space Skulls 2008 -17.6 Factory 7598 Pizza Planet Truck Rescue 2010 -15.83 Toy Story 8494 Ring of Fire 2008 -15.24 Racers 8060 Typhoon Turbo Sub 2010 -14.85 Atlantis 8863 Blizzard's Peak 2010 -14.83 World Racers 7572 Quest Against Time 2010 -14.59 Prince of Persia 8078 Portal of Atlantis 2010 -13.92 Atlantis 8197 Highway Chaos 2010 -13.15 Racers 8899 Gator Swamp 2010 -13.11 World Racers 7570 The Ostrich Race 2010 -12.46 Prince of Persia 8864 Desert of Destruction 2010 -12.03 World Racers 8160 Cruncher Block & Racer X 2008 -11.94 Racers 8184 Magna Mech 2010 -11.45 Power Miners 8061 Gateway of the Squid 2010 -11.38 Atlantis 853176 Skeleton Mummy Pack 2011 -11.2 Pharaoh's Quest 7325 Cursed Cobra Statue 2011 -10.97 Pharaoh's Quest 8897 Jagged Jaws Reef 2010 -10.86 World Racers 7789 Lotso's Dump Truck 2010 -10.79 Toy Story 8085 Freeco Speeder 2010 -10.69 Star Wars 8077 Atlantis Exploration HQ 2010 -10.62 Atlantis 7147 XPlode 2010 -10.51 Hero Factory 8898 Wrecking Road 2010 -10.38 World Racers 7754 Home 1 Mon Calimari Cruiser 2009 -10.29 Star Wars 7573 Battle of Alamut 2010 -10.02 Prince of Persia 7326 Rise of the Sphinx 2011 -9.76 Pharaoh's Quest 8196 Chopper Jump 2010 -9.5 Racers 8128 Cade Bane's Speeder 2010 -8.51 Star Wars 8895 Thornatus V9 2009 -8.31 Bionicle 5974 Galactic Explorer 2009 -7.97 Space 7596 Trash Compactor Escape 2010 -7.9 Toy Story 8080 Undersea Explorer 2010 -7.91 Atlantis 8926 Toa Undersea Attack 2007 -7.68 Bionicle 8866 Train Motor 2009 -7.6 City 5865 Mini Dumper 2010 -7.57 Creator 7156 Corroder 2010 -7.53 Hero Factory 7571 The Fight for the Dagger 2010 -7.52 Prince of Persia 8099 Midi scale Star Destroyer 2010 -7.47 Star Wars 5982 Smash 'n' Grab 2010 -7.25 Space 8186 Street Extreme 2009 -7.23 Racers 8199 Security Smash 2010 -7.17 Racers 8943 Axalara T9 2008 -7.09 Bionicle 8124 Ice Rally 2009 -6.76 Racers 8198 Ramp Crash 2010 -6.71 Racers 8146 Nitro Muscle 2007 -6.46 Racers 8076 Deep Sea Striker 2010 -6.31 Atlantis 7848 Toys R Us City Truck 2010 -6.31 City 7593 Buzz's Command Spaceship 2010 -5.92 Toy Story 8411 Chromastone 2010 -5.83 Ben 10  
 
  As the reader can see, there is quite a variety of sets and themes that make up the Bottom 50.  From Atlantis sets to World Racers, there is a mix of small and large, low and high priced sets.  The one definitive theme that looks extremely weak is the Racers theme.  Even worse is the World Racers theme.  This theme can be considered the ultimate investment loser in my book.  Fifteen out of the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, or 30%, are made up with these four wheeled wastes of your LEGO investment dollar.  While they might be somewhat popular among kids, they certainly have no value in the secondary LEGO market.  Avoid them like the plague!  As for the other remaining 35 LEGO sets in the Bottom 50, the Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Toy Story, Prince of Persia, Bionicle and STAR WARS themes make up the majority of what's left.  The Bionicle and STAR WARS themes, while present in the Bottom 50, shouldn't be considered bad investments by any means.  With their sheer number of sets, there was destined to be a couple of poor performers in the bunch.  That leaves the unpopular Atlantis, Toy Story and Prince of Persia themes to stink up the joint.
 
 
  So why are these sets so unpopular in the secondary LEGO market?  Well, the Racers for one have been around for 10+ years, so obviously they have quite a following and were popular at retail, so why are they poor investments?  Well, not all Racer sets are poor investments to start.  The 8653 Enzo Ferrari and 8461 Williams F1 Team Racer have appreciated into the $400 range, which is not chump change.  There are many other positive examples in the Racers theme.  I guess it boils down to lack of minifigures and many small, repetitive and uninteresting sets.  That's my guess.  I can't say that about the Atlantis and Pharaoh's Quest themes.  They have some of the coolest minifigures and sets on the planet in my opinion.  Sharkmen, flying mummies, giant squids, scorpions and crabs, submarines, ancient ruins...all creative and fun stuff.  Same goes for the Toy Story sets.  I love the minifgures and the sets are all very well done and do a great job of portraying the actual iconic movies.  Prince of Persia, on the other hand, have decent LEGO sets, but the actual movie was so bad that it affected set popularity.  Even a successful Prince of Persia video game line couldn't counteract the negative effects of the awful movie.  The one thing I don't understand with the Prince of Persia sets is how “can't” the LEGO theme be successful?  I mean each LEGO box has a picture of Jake Gyllenhaal on it.  That has to account for some increase in value...right?  LOL.
 

  Besides the repetitive and uncreative nature of the Racers and World Racers theme, the other themes and sets don't really have any main characteristics that will designate them as “losers.”  They are a mix of all types of sets and themes, some with minifigures, some without minifigures.  Some sets are from licensed themes, others are not.  Some sets are based on classic movies, others are based on forgettable ones, while others are based on no movies at all.  Some are large sets, others small.  Of the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, there are seven sets that made me want to further examine the sets to see why they are in that position.  Here they are...The Sucky Seven...
 
   
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
7591 CONSTRUCT-A-ZURG 2010 118/1 24.99 10.24 -17.02 -59.92 -26.21 -37.2 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: The Evil Emperor Zurg is out to conquer the galaxy! BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The Toy Story theme is one of the worst of all LEGO themes and it's really hard to figure why.  The Toy Story(s) movie was a classic and the LEGO sets did the movie justice, with accurate looking sets that matched movie scenes and characters very closely.  The minifigures are awesome in my opinion.  Take this set, the Construct-A-ZURG for instance.  It looks exactly like the movie character...right down to the ball shooter.  The purple color is refreshing and mixes well with the red.  A real pleasure to look at and to build(Yes, I have one.)  The playability is also fantastic.  This set DOES NOT deserve to be the worst of the worst.  The one negative was the MSRP, which was high, but now you can probably buy one cheap.  Makes an excellent display set as well.    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
8078 PORTAL OF ATLANTIS 2010 1007/7 99.99 63.78 -5.69 -36.21 -13.92 -24.91 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: The portal to the lost city of Atlantis has been discovered! Getting through it will be the diver’s greatest challenge yet! The divers must get past hidden traps, shark guardian statues that come alive, Squid and Shark Warriors, and the Portal Emperor before unlocking the portal with the five Atlantis treasure keys. Includes 7 minifigures: 3 divers, 1 Portal Emperor, 1 Squid Warrior, 1 Shark Warrior, 1 skeletonFeatures all 5 Atlantis treasure keys -- green, blue, yellow, red and orange Divers must beware of the hidden traps! Turn a treasure key into the keystone to open the portal to Atlantis! Shark castle measures 18" (46cm) wide and over 12” (32cm) tall BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Atlantis sets, like their desert relatives, the Pharaoh's Quest sets, just don't get any love and this amazes me.  The sets are colorful and creative, the minifigures are some of the coolest I've encountered, the sets are a good mix of buildings, vehicles and creatures.  Earlier versions of the Atlantis theme, like Aquaraiders and Aquazone, haven't fared any better over time.  I guess LEGO fans just don't like water or underwater themes(or desert themes for that matter).  Too bad really.  The Atlantis sets have a lot to offer.  This set in particular, offers over 1000 pieces, a radical shark building/temple and some nasty little minifigures.  The trick with these sets was never to pay retail prices for them.  Discounts are/were always available on these sets and if you start(ed) at a lower buy in price, you can make some money off of these sets.  Atlantis just doesn't deserve being one of the worst themes in my opinion, but I guess I am in the minority.    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
7754 HOME ONE MON CALIMARI CRUISE 2009 789/6 109.99 71.23 -1.37 -35.24 -10.29 -21.28 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Aboard the Mon Calamari Star Cruiser Home One , the Rebel Alliance plans its final assault against the Empire's second Death Star. Voted for by fans to celebrate the 10th anniversary of LEGO Star Wars , the famous Rebel flagship features a command center and briefing room with Death Star 'œhologram,' a launch and repair hangar, a Green Squadron A-wing starfighter with removable engine and firing flick-missiles, and the first-ever LEGO minifigures of Admiral Ackbar, Rebel leader Mon Mothma, General Lando Calrissian, General Madine, a Mon Calamari officer and a Green Squadron A-wing pilot. Move the levers and gears to prepare the A-wing for takeoff or to rotate Admiral Ackbar's command chair! Includes 6 minifigures: Admiral Ackbar, MonMothma, General Lando Calrissian, General Madine, a Mon Calamari officer and a Green Squadron A-wing pilot! Set features Mon Calamari command center, repair hangar and an A-wing starfighter! Command center and repair hanger measure a combined 17" (43cm) long and 9" (23cm) wide BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The set with the longest name and not much else...LOL.  Only kidding.  I never liked the name of this set.  Hard to remember.  Maybe that's why people don't care for it.  A Toys R Us “exclusive.”  So much for exclusives.  This set is just an outright disappointment.  Maybe on the pricey side for the piece count, but nothing too high.  Six minifigures.  STAR WARS set.  Interesting display set with a lot of playability.  Not the greatest set, but it shouldn't be in the Bottom 50 in my opinion.  I've seen much, much worse.  I guess Admiral Ackbar and Mon Mothma are not winning any popularity contests.    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
7573 BATTLE OF ALUMUT 2010 821/7 79.99 58.28 -3.4 -27.14 -10.02 -21.01 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Battle in, on and around the mighty Alamut Castle! BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The iconic Prince of Persia theme...LOL.  Well, maybe not iconic.  Anyway...this is the largest(...and largest usually means a good investment with LEGO sets) of the Prince of Persia theme and has a decent amount of pieces and minifigures.  While this is no Harry Potter set, or even Pirates of the Caribbean set for that matter, it's really not worthy of being so unloved in my opinion.  This set was readily available well below MSRP for the longest time.  You can still find some good deals on this set, even if you just want to part it out.  Maybe now is the time to buy one of these sets.  It went up 1.67% last month.  Maybe it is a late bloomer.   Don't forget, the LEGO box art is hot with Jake Gyllenhaal on it!!!  ;-)    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
5974 GALACTIC ENFORCER 2009 825/7 99.99 71.72 14.92 -28.27 -7.97 -18.96 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Intergalactic emergency broadcast! The sinister Slizer has stolen the statue of the first LEGO Space astronaut'¦and he's planning to break Kranxx out of galactic jail, too! Blast off in the mighty Galactic Enforcer and use its incredible five-way split function to protect the blast-away quad prison pods and capture the space-crooks. Includes 'statue' of 1st LEGO Space astronaut plus 5 minifigures: Slizer, Kranxx and 3 Space Police Officers Also includes Space Police mini quad, alien strikecraft and minifigure accessories Galactic Enforcer splits to reveal smaller space vehicles Lift hinged door and play inside the forensic lab and questioning area Alien strikecraft, including fire trail, measures 8" (20cm) long and features shooting function Galactic Enforcer measures an impressive 19" (48cm) long with a 12" (31cm) wingspan BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Another one of my favorite sets in the Bottom 50.  Oh well.  This one has hope though.  It increased 5.97% last month, so maybe it is making a move up.  This set reminds me of the old Space theme, my first and all-time favorite LEGO theme.  The Space Police sets all have some rather interesting minifigures and this set has seven of them.  The set itself is quite large, with over 800 pieces, and impressive, with a ton of features and playability.  I'm rather surprised that a large set such as this has done so poorly over the last several years, but it looks like this set has seen its lows and might even be a worthy investment from this point on into the future.    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
8943 AXALARA T9 2008 693 79.99 55.39 8.65 -30.75 -7.09 -18.08 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Lewa Nuva is ready for battle in this massively powerful battlecruiser! With dual Midak Skyblasters and tri-arms featuring lasers and force field generators, its mission is to smash the Brotherhood of Makuta while there's still time to save the universe! Includes special-edition Lewa Nuva figure! Raise and lower the landing gear! Sides open to reveal the dual Midak Skyblasters that really fire! Turn the gear on the side to open and close the tri-arms! Hold the handle underneath to fly the Axalara T9! Lewa Nuva stands 7½" (19cm) tall! Measures over 20" (50cm) long and 13" (33cm) high! BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: One of the largest of the popular and classic Bionicle themed sets, this is another large set that has underperformed.  Usually, the largest sets of a LEGO theme are the best in terms of investments, but once again, the largest set shows the smallest gains...or no gains in this case.  This set has shown some solid growth recently and I hope to see it continue, because I have one.  The set itself is damn cool.  It shoots rockets  that pop out of opening doors, has wings that contract and expand and other neat features.     A fantastic display set, it offers a lot of playability .  A set that doesn't deserve the Bottom 50 designation, it looks to be making some solid gains recently to maybe move it out of the CAGR cellar very soon.  Maybe you can pick up a cheap one and make some money here.    
Year Released Pieces/ Minifigures MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR
7848 TOYS R US CITY TRUCK 2010 356/3 49.99 41.11 24.09 -17.76 -6.31 -17.3 LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Toys R Us Exclusive set! BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Exclusives aren't always money makers in the LEGO world, especially Toys R Us exclusives.  This is a prime example.  The CITY theme is a solid producer and I still have hope for this set, but for whatever reason, this set hasn't really interested LEGO investors to this point.  Maybe the original MSRP was too high for the set.  I bought these sets at buy 2, get one FREE and to me, it's a solid investment.  But at $50, the starting point was too high.  I like the set though, just not at $50.     As the reader can see, there aren't really any definite characteristics of a LEGO set that is unpopular and/or one that under-performs in the secondary LEGO market.  Besides the Racers and World Racers themes, there is quite a variety of poorly performing sets.  The Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Prince of Persia and Toy Story themes find themselves in the Bottom 50 quite a lot, but I cannot honestly see any correlation between these themes or the sets that are in the Bottom 50.  Basically, it's a total crap shoot whether or not a theme will be unpopular, thus poor investments.
  What is funny is that the Brickpicker site is sometimes accused of telling people to “Buy, Buy, Buy,” yet I decided to write an article on the lowest of the low, to show potential investors not all LEGO sets will rise in value.  But there is still a silver lining with many of these poor performers.  Many of these unpopular sets were heavily discounted prior to retirement, so if purchased at the right price, many will have appreciated enough to be a decent investment.  There are several sets within the Bottom 50 that have made some nice gains over the past month.  Maybe the trend will continue and these sets will be a positive to your Brickfolio.
 
 
  I'll let you in on a little secret.  The title of this article is “Anatomy of a LEGO Investment Loser.”  Well, many people probably think it's the sets I'm referring to.  LOL.  Sorry to say, it's me I'm writing about.  I own half of these Bottom 50 sets.  HALF.  25 of 50.  While I have done quite well with many other sets and their appreciation over the past five or six years, I still invested in a ton of losers.  Point is, there are no surefire winners and some sets that you think logically should appreciate well, do not.  Emotion and luck play an important role as well.  In conclusion, let me tell you that diversification has helped me water down my losses and has kept me in the green overall.  Mix up your LEGO investments in themes, prices, sizes and styles and you will avoid losing too much money if you pick the wrong set on occasion.  Good luck in your choices and stay away from four-wheeled wastes of ABS plastic....
Anybody who buys LEGO sets and bricks daydreams about a future in which one does not need to go to the store to obtain them. There will be no need to waste a half an hour or more in time and several dollars in gas from the drive going to their destination, not to mention wear and tear on the vehicle. Not only that, but the time wasted being in the store and having to wait in long lines will be saved. In addition, there is a possibility that after all the wasted time, gas and effort, the retailer you are seeking this product from will not have what you seek. What's a consumer to do? Well, the first idea that comes to mind is Amazon.com. This online giant retailer will enable you to order tens of thousands of products from the comfort of your home and have it delivered to your doorstep in one day. But what's a person to do if the product is not available once again or is too expensive to ship or too fragile? I have a better solution...let's take a look.
Yes, now with the advent of the internet that Al Gore created for us… people can forego those antiquated procedures of trekking to a store and actually conversing with people. The ultimate solution comes straight out of Gene Roddenberry's imagination, into your screen via Star Trek, and what looks to be soon, straight into your home! I am speaking of the Star Trek Replicator...

The Star Trek Replicator has already become a reality through 3-D Printers. According to the website Wikipedia, a 3-D Printer/Printing is :
...a process of making a three-dimensional solid object of virtually any shape from a digital model. 3D printing is achieved using an additive process, where successive layers of material are laid down in different shapes. 3-D printing is considered distinct from traditional machining techniques which mostly rely on the removal of material by methods such as cutting or drilling (subtractive processes).
3-D printing is usually performed by a materials printer using digital technology. Since the start of the twenty-first century there has been a large growth in the sales of these machines, and their price has dropped substantially.[2]
The technology is used in jewelry, footwear, industrial design, architecture, engineering and construction (AEC), automotive, aerospace, dental and medical industries, education, geographic information systems, civil engineering, and many other fields.
The most well known 3-D Printer that has attracted mainstream media attention over the years is the MakerBot, founded roughly four years ago in 2009 by Adam Mayer, Zach Smith and Bre Pettis.

While mostly used by hobbyists, a few are trying to make money through producing small goods, like bottle cap openers and other small knickknacks. It is looked at as the beginning of what is to come. The MakerBot produces products in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polylactic acid (PLA), and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA). ABS plastic is of paramount importance for our discussion because that is what LEGO bricks are made of.
The newest incarnation from MakerBot goes by the name of The Replicator 2X, the same name used in Star Trek and goes for around $2,800.00. The Replicator 2X can produce objects in two colors and has taken over the 3-D Printing market since competitor 3-D printers, like the Thing-o-Matic, have been been discontinued. An even newer version, the CubeX, can print in three colors and goes for around $4,000.00. Even for those that lack the skill to be able to create their own products, MakerBot has a vast community made up of fellow hobbyists who create and share their designs for others to produce.
Other 3-D Printers exist and have even been shown on such popular shows such as This Old House. The $70,000 ZPrinter 650, by the Z Corporation, is one such example. To see what the future holds, watch this YouTube video segment from the show...
Like most revolutionary gadgets, their prices may be high to start and their processes slow, but in the next 10 to 20 years these gadgets should be able to produce detailed goods right in your home, at an affordable price. So what does this mean to LEGO investors and collectors? To the LEGO investor, it could mean that your retired sets will be valued at the level of vinyl records in today's age of digital music. There will still be a value in rare and vintage LEGO sets, but a decrease in your investment is a possibility. Why? Because LEGO fans will be able to easily reproduce an iconic set like the 10179 Millennium Falcon in their own parts, so why buy an old and expensive version...the box? Why buy a new LEGO set if you can reproduce them in your basement? This can lead to a possible demise of The LEGO Group itself.
Unfortunately for LEGO investors, your plastic brick empire will be the first to fall from the earliest mainstream 3-D Printing boom, compared to normal action figures which will fall in later upgrades, due to their simplistic shape and design. The days of making money off of “parting” brick pieces will be history due to the ease of printing whatever you need on a whim, and great for parents who deem LEGO an expensive toy for little Johnny or Jane! Free sourced data files by like minded tech savvies who deem the product too expensive will do to LEGO what many did to the music industry by sharing songs through file-sharing sites such as Napster founded by Sean Parker, Shawn Fanning, and John Fanning.
Who will need LEGO to produce bricks when you will be able to produce them cheaply yourself? Bigger sets. More creative sets. Cheaper sets. New colors. How about special bricks that MOCers have wanted LEGO to make for years, but have not had their wish granted? They can make their own “custom” LEGO bricks now. Not only that, the aftermarket MOC instruction business will explode with large and creative models that were only obtainable to a lucky few LEGO Master Builders years earlier. Some of the large CUUSOO models that were not approved because they were too big and pricey will be built by LEGO fans at reasonable prices.
Companies(...and not just toy companies like LEGO) will try to fight off 3-D Printers by slashing down their prices on their products to no avail. Companies will threaten lawsuits about patent infringement, but how can you stop people producing bricks in basements? Want to build a set from 2013? Want to build an exclusive or a new set from 2023 to 2033? No problem, just go on to one of the many Lego fan sites which will have instruction manuals for the vast majority of sets. The new cost of a LEGO brick will be the cost of the raw materials and some electricity to run the machine. No shipping, no gas, and the ability to have instant gratification! Century old companies will cling to lawsuits for survival and have sites taken down that have their patents. But the internet is too vast to stop the inevitability of these businesses going the way of the dinosaur. Beam me up, Scotty!
References:
1. "3D Printer Technology — Animation of layering". Create It Real. Retrieved 2012-01-31.
2. Sherman, Lilli Manolis. "3D Printers Lead Growth of Rapid Prototyping (Plastics Technology, August 2004)". Retrieved 2012-01-31.
In today's world, there are many swindlers and shysters trying to separate you from your money. This theft and deception even finds its way into the world of LEGO bricks. As a LEGO collector and investor, there are many places to buy LEGO sets. One of the best is eBay. But there is an ever increasing illegal practice that is occurring on the eBay site and similar auction sites and the LEGO fan needs to be aware of it. It's called “drop shipping.”
Just to be clear...drop shipping, by itself, is not a scam. It is a common method employed by sellers to reduce inventory costs. Basically a seller either has an agreement with a wholesaler or knows of a price cheap enough that he will sell it to you and make a profit. There are many websites on the Internet that sell things they don't have in inventory, even large, brand-name sites do this.
I have sold things to people via eBay and drop shipped them to their home because I could get it cheaper than they could so I could make a profit. There was a time when the cheapest prices were almost always on eBay but that is certainly not true anymore (I've been on eBay since 1997). Regardless many people only look at eBay to buy something and don’t have the time or inclination to price shop.
Drop shipping is employed by scammers on eBay because they can use stolen credit card information to purchase an item that is shipped to YOU, so YOU are the first person contacted because of stolen credit card use as YOU received the stolen merchandise and thus benefited from the stolen credit card! If these scammers used a stolen credit card to ship to themselves, they would quickly be caught!
I have been taken in by scams on eBay, luckily the last time I detected it but not before I had already won the auction. Here is what you should look for to determine if the eBay listing is a scam:
Look for low feedback scores, under 100. Look for feedback scores on very cheap items (99 cents) on almost all transactions in the last month or two. Probably most are purchases not sales. Look for the eBay account to be suddenly selling a lot of high-priced items they haven't sold before. Look to see if the account is selling duplicates of these items. Look for stock Internet photos likely from Lego. It is better if the photos look original, but don’t rely on this as it is easy to copy pictures from other eBay auctions. The last scam I fell for had original pictures! NOTE: If I see #2 or two of any of the others I never bid on their listings. This is very likely to be a credit card scam and the items will be drop shipped to you.
All high-priced auctions end at the same time. Also check shipping terms to see if there is any delay in shipping. Some will tell you they only ship once a week or will be on vacation when the auctions end. NOTE: I actually saw one seller whose items all ended at the same minute, over 30 items! This is likely just a straight up scam without any stolen credit cards, the seller is hoping to make off with buyer's money before anyone realizes they won't get their item.
Look to see if the account has been inactive for a long time - usually more than six months and now has a lot of items for sale. And, even when it was active there was not a lot of activity. NOTE: This is likely someone's eBay account that has been hacked and is now being used in a scam. Someone who has recently been inactive may not notice anything is going on in their account, or they can't access their account for months.
Is the LEGO set priced BELOW retail(MSRP)? Many drop shippers will give you a great deal to quicken the sales process and sell more items. I mean, it's not their money, right? They are happy giving you a discount if it makes them $100+ a LEGO set. LEGO set has to be available through primary retailers like LEGO, Amazon, Target, etc... so the thief can use the stolen card to send you the set from in stock retailers. Is there FREE SHIPPING involved? Many drop shippers will throw in free shipping as a “bonus” to sweeten the pot. Plus many retailers will give free shipping on higher priced items, so it actually costs the thief nothing. What to do if you won an item and think it's a scam:
In December of 2012, I won a LEGO 4842 set for $130. I noticed the seller had six for sale and had used the same original picture for all six, which all ended within an hour of each other. I got a bad feeling about the transaction, but it was too late. I looked at the seller’s feedback score of about 90, only to see they were almost all for purchasing 99 cent items and all in the last 6 weeks. My habit has been to pay immediately when I win something. But, I had a bad feeling about this auction so I sent an email to eBay. Then, I waited without paying for three days, at which time I started getting notices from eBay to pay for my item.
I called eBay to talk with a Customer Service representative on the phone. You can do this if you first get a number code online that is good for 15 minutes and allows you to talk with an actual person.
I reported what I thought was a scam and she said thank you, but they could not give me any information about their confidential investigations. I asked how long I had to pay for the auction and she said eBay had no set limit. I asked what I could do; she said I had the option of contacting the seller and asking that the transaction be canceled. Only sellers can initiate the transaction cancellation option in eBay.
I waited four more days and was thinking that even if it was a scam I would eventually get my money back from Paypal; but I was concerned that I might be blacklisted by LEGO or Amazon. I went to the auction and looked at the feedback again and another buyer had said Lego had contacted them about credit card fraud.
I sent a message to the seller asking that the transaction be canceled and the seller did cancel the transaction. I went back into eBay a week later and there was no registered user with the seller’s ID and I could no longer bring up the transaction I had won.
I belatedly got an email from eBay telling me that some transactions I was involved with had been canceled and I could take it up with Paypal, if I was out any money.
So, if you win an item, then discover it is likely a scam, don’t pay(although you will receive annoying reminder emails to pay) and you can always ask the seller to cancel the transaction! I would also suggest that you call or email eBay to ask them to investigate the seller. At the very least, it will be noted by the eBay Customer Service representative in your file and this will help protect you if the case ever gets escalated into a criminal matter. It is true you can go ahead and pay and will probably get your money back, but I’m more afraid of being blacklisted from a site like LEGO or Amazon!
I have since seen similar sellers and each time they were selling multiple LEGO sets, but the auctions always had under six items available. I think selling six identical LEGO sets(or any item) is under eBay’s radar. Many years ago, I interviewed with eBay for a programming position and they told me at that time they had more than 45,000 active algorithms that review auctions for fraud prevention. So, while I think eBay is very active in trying to prevent fraud (I wonder how many listings we never see?) those algorithms will never be quite as effective as your own brain! Be safe out there!
Hi. I’m a new investor/collector/AFOL. One issue I have encountered with my new hobby was how to protect the fragile LEGO set boxes from shelf wear and the interior home elements, such as moisture from possible water leaks, dampness from high humidity areas like basements, dust and smoke. Several years ago, I discovered various brands of storage bags and thought these would be an excellent answer to these issues. These bags are large, very durable, and reusable. They would wear out with constant use, but for items that will sit awhile, like LEGO sets, they are worth looking into. They are also transparent, which would enable the LEGO collector and investor to view what is in the bag while the sets are stacked on shelves or similar storage areas.
I’ll first describe the features and advantages of using them to store your LEGO investment. Then I’ll list brands, sizes, prices, and sources.
Provides protection Accurately described as “with their pleated bottom and secure zip seal, they are perfect for storing even your bulkiest items while helping to protect them from moisture, dust and pests.” They also help prevent cigarette smoke from damaging boxes. Makes it easy to move or transport your boxes Most brands have a handle Reusable After selling the LEGO set that was stored in the bag, the reusable bag can be unzipped and used on the next LEGO investment. Transparent Enables the LEGO collector and investor to view what is in the bag, without actually opening the bag up. Inexpensive In the worst case, you’re looking at $1.50 per LARGE Lego box, a small price to pay for extra protection. And remember, they’re reusable. Group similar sets together Put similar or same sets in the same bag. Takes up no extra space in your storage. Unlike some paper products(cardboard), these bags take up little space. There are 3 brands that I have come across. In each case, consider only the XL and XXL sizes.
1. StorIt

These are the cheapest and can be found at dollar stores. However, their largest bag will not fit the large Lego sets like the Haunted House.
For $1, you can get one XXL size 24” x 20” (60.9 cm x 50.8 cm) or two XL bags size 20.5” x 17” (52.1 cm x 43.2 cm)
They are priced much higher online ($4 at Amazon). Look for them in dollar stores. If you can’t find them, you can order then from Dollar Tree but the minimum purchase is 36 at $36.
Dollar Tree: http://www.dollartree.com/cleaning-storage-hardware/storage/EZ-Stor-Plastic-Storage-Bags-with-Handles-XX-Large/212c261c261p299576/index.pro
2. Zip N’ Go

These are part of the Space Bag series, those bags that let you suck the air out of them with a vacuum to save space. However, no worries. These bags are normal and don’t suck. I have seen them at Linens N Things but cannot find them anywhere online.
For around $13, you can get two XL size 22” x 22” (55 cm x 55 cm) AND two XXL size 28” x 28” (71 cm x 71 cm). The XXL bag will hold the large Lego sets like the Haunted House. In fact, you can store two large sets comfortably in one bag, making the extra cost just over $1.50 per set.
3. Ziploc Big Bags

For $12, you get three XXL size 24” x 32” (60 cm x 82 cm). These would be the most expensive at $4/bag but are the strongest with a double zipper.
Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Johnson-Ziploc3pk-Bigbag-Closet-Storage/dp/B000V9N1WO (Note: At the time of this writing, I saw them on Diapers.com for $7 with free shipping for orders over $49)
Here are some actual photos of the storage bags being utilized with LEGO sets:



All in all, these large transparent storage bags are a LEGO investor and collector's best friend. The storage bags help protect from the dust and moisture that can be found in every house, yet will also protect from major water damage from possible pipe leaks and smoke damage from fires or cigarettes. Also, the prevention of shelf wear, which can reduce the value of any Mint In Sealed Box LEGO set, is another big positive. While not structural in any way like cardboard boxes are, these bags don't take up any valuable space like paper products do. So do yourself a favor and pick up a couple of boxes and start protecting your LEGO sets. In the long run, you won't be disappointed.
There has been a flurry of activity with this set within the last couple days, and it seems to be causing a lot of LEGO investors to change their feelings toward it. Amazon had around 550 units for sale on January 9, and Toys R Us was offering it online on January 11. Even the official Minecraft site, www.JINX.com, got in on the fun and offered a small number of these for sale the same day.
With all these recent offerings, the general feeling of this set seems to have shifted to an unusually negative outlook for a lot of investors. This is understandable. We are talking about a set that started out with a stated production run of only 10,000 units. Then, due to the overwhelming and unexpected popularity of Minecraft as a game, another undisclosed number of these sets became available, and then another, and then another…
It seems to be a recurring theme these days. Just when people are thinking, "Okay, that has got to be it, right?," another batch of them shows up for sale somewhere. A $34.99 set that very recently commanded over $100 on the secondary market is now quickly becoming something a lot of people are rolling their eyes at. The going rate on eBay and Amazon is $60 on a good day, and will likely drop with all the recent quantities offered.
The exclusive feel of the Minecraft set is starting to feel… not so exclusive. There are so many of them out there that the value seems to be plunging. A lot of people who ordered them recently are already discussing their plans to hopefully flip them quickly and make a small $20 profit if they're lucky.
Before people get too hung up in this kind of thinking, there are many aspects of the Minecraft set that should be carefully considered before they make the rash decision of dumping their stock. There is no need to feel this negativity toward a set that we were all so excited about only a few short weeks ago. The value of the Minecraft set is still alive and well, and I am here to tell you why and hopefully put your fears to rest.
Please consider the following:
Minecraft has indeed been offered for sale far more times than any of us expected. But it sells out in what is probably record timing EVERY time. The Amazon offering on January 9 was gone in under an hour. That is 550+ units in under 60 minutes! On January 11, I was notified the instant the sets became available on the Toys R Us website. Within 15-20 minutes they were gone. Then another forum poster pointed out that they were available on the Minecraft developer site. Within 10 minutes…you guessed it…gone!
Does this sound like the makings of a set that has limited or waning interest? Absolutely not! Sure, the number of sets in existence keeps going up, and at a frustratingly unpredictable rate, but they disappear as suddenly as they reappear.
When people invest in a product to hopefully make a profit on it, it comes as no surprise when they feel frustration at the fact that the value of the product is cut in half in a couple weeks' time. It is easy to jump on board with something that is rapidly soaring in value. Naturally, it is equally easy to lose faith in the same product once that value seems to peak, and then rapidly declines.
So here we are, watching the value of Minecraft Micro World sink faster than the Titanic. But this is one ship that it would be wise to not jump off of just yet. Keep in mind that there are many sets that we have all collected that were readily available on retail shelves everywhere for over two years that became very profitable once they were retired. The operative word in that sentence being EVERYWHERE. Minecraft has certainly not been available everywhere. When it is available, you miss it if you dare to blink. It has pretty much always been available NOWHERE. The market may currently feel flooded with Minecraft sets, but that is only because we are all used to tripling our investment on it almost immediately. We all know that LEGO investing requires patience above all else, but we are not used to having to exercise that kind of patience with Minecraft. If we give it time, this situation will even itself out.
If you need to recoup your $35 investment right away and ensure a small profit, go ahead and sell. But the smart money says it is time to start treating this set like we would any other LEGO set; get it while you can, sell it for a lot once it's gone. It just means we need to adjust our thinking and accept the fact that Minecraft is not the dynamite short-term investment it once was.
When compared to your average STAR WARS or Super Heroes set, Minecraft will still ultimately have much more limited production and availability numbers. As the Minecraft game continues to get more and more popular, the demand and interest for its LEGO equivalent will also go up. And when the game fizzles out, you are still left with a LEGO set that was very underproduced by comparison. Either way, this is a set that is going to be talked about for years to come. Until we are seeing 21102 Minecraft Micro World sets on Walmart and Target retail shelves everywhere, we've got nothing to worry about. So sit tight everyone. Hold on to those Minecraft sets for a while. Give them a chance. You can thank me later.
In a time, not so long ago, in a place, not so far away, the STAR WARS theme ruled the LEGO investment world. Iconic LEGO sets like the 10179 Millennium Falcon, 7191 X-Wing Fighter and 10030 Star Destroyer yielded fantastic returns on investment. Almost every STAR WARS set had better annual returns than the standard LEGO set and were universally thought of by LEGO collectors and investors as “can't lose” investments. But over the last several months, the LEGO STAR WARS theme has slowly started to decline in overall CAGR, dropping below the average LEGO Theme CAGR. Take a look at the chart below

As the reader can see, starting in August of 2012, the combined STAR WARS theme average CAGR dropped below the average CAGR for all LEGO sets and themes combined. In other words, your “run of the mill” LEGO set had a CAGR of around 10.47% in August and the once Gold Standard of LEGO investing, the STAR WARS theme, dropped to 9.9% CAGR and has remained below average ever since. What the Hell is going on you may ask? Well for one, the last major STAR WARS movie, STAR WARS III: Revenge of the Sith, was released all the way back in 2005. That is a long time ago in the world of entertainment and keeping people engaged in a movie franchise is rather difficult nowadays, even an iconic franchise like STAR WARS. With an eight-year hiatus in new STAR WARS ideas to base new LEGO sets off of, LEGO has had to base each year's new STAR WARS sets on retreads or previously done or minor vehicles or characters. Basically, LEGO fans and STAR WARS fans in general have lost interest in the stale franchise and remade LEGO sets. The once leader in LEGO investing, the STAR WARS theme, has turned into a below average investment in the world of LEGO investing.
But fear not my young Jedi, help is on the way and he wears yellow shoes and red shorts. His name is Mickey Mouse and he might just inject some life into this tired franchise and LEGO theme. Back in October, Disney bought Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion in cash and plans to release STAR WARS: Episode VII in 2015, with many other STAR WARS movies to follow. Knowing Disney and their proclivity to make sequels, you can be assured that the STAR WARS franchise will be reborn and live well into the future. Also, George Lucas will be an advisor on the next three films, so you know the quality and creativity will be there with the new movies. This is just fantastic news for the LEGO investor, especially those like myself who have a collection that is heavily based in STAR WARS sets. With the renewed and continued interest in the STAR WARS theme, many of the older STAR WARS LEGO sets might once again find strong growth, which has stagnated over the past several years. Depending on when the next movie will be based(in STAR WARS time that is...), it is quite possible many of the older STAR WARS ships, like the Millennium Falcon, will have new roles in the new movie. Can you imagine what a 10179 Millennium Falcon will appreciate to if it is in the next movie? I can only imagine.
So, all in all, the news that Disney will be producing new STAR WARS movies is wonderful to say the least. Not only because STAR WARS fans will get to see new movies, but that the once iconic line of LEGO sets will become iconic and relative once again. With new STAR WARS movies every 2 to 3 years, there will be a plethora of new vehicles and characters to immortalize in ABS plastic bricks every couple of years. No more retreads. Also, with the potential of all the new fans being introduced to the STAR WARS series, older characters and vehicles will find new fans as well. Some of these fans will undoubtedly be LEGO fans as well, which makes for a nice combination for the continued growth potential of STAR WARS LEGO sets that exist today. What's funny is that the STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series is what brought me out of my Dark Ages of LEGO collecting and has made me some nice paper profits over the years. But the recent downturn of the theme has had me recommending some of the other hot LEGO themes of today...Ninjago, Monster Fighters, Friends, CUUSOO...to name a few. Well, I am here today to tell you that the STAR WARS LEGO theme is back. Maybe not today. Maybe not next year. But when Episode VII hits the big screen in 2 years, lookout...the prudent STAR WARS LEGO investor will be one happy Geonosian...
I have played with LEGO bricks since I was young(I am now 34), but never collected them in any way until recently. A couple of years ago, my wife got back into LEGO and started buying sets to build with our nieces and nephews. Before long she was asking for LEGO sets from me for her birthday and Christmas. Well, of course a few of the sets were hard to find so I had to turn to eBay. I was shocked by how much some of the sets were going for and that’s what turned me into a true LEGO investor. Even though I have been doing it for only a short time compared to many, I have learned some very good tricks to getting good discounts on LEGO sets and I thought I would share some of them...
Credit Cards
Although I would never suggest anyone sign up for a credit card that they don't need or cannot pay off every month, in certain instances this can save you a lot of money. Before I was even buying LEGO sets I signed up for a Chase Freedom Card. I never had a need for a credit card, but I figured it was safer than using my debit card that was tied directly to my bank account, and if I have to spend the money, I might as well get 1% cash back which the Chase card offers(Many other credit cards, like Discover for instance, also gives 1% cash back). I started using the card to pay my bills and just about anything else I could that I used to use my debit card for. I would pay the card off 2 of 3 times a month(a little over the top I know) to avoid any interest charges. The 1% started adding up quickly since I was putting everything through the card including all of my business expenses, and before I knew it, I had hundreds of dollars in points through the card. The points can then be converted into a check which they will send you in the mail. However, the nice thing about this card is that you can also use those points on Amazon.com and they are as good as cash. Just link your card up through the Chase site and you are all set. After a while of doing this, I was able to spend my points and buy LEGO sets on sale at Amazon. Now, even though this was the same as spending cash, it did save me 1%. Although that doesn’t sound like a lot, I feel that every little bit helps. Also, at times Chase has promotions where you can save up to 5% by shopping at certain stores. This happened to be Amazon.com over Christmas.
After having an Amazon account for years and years, I finally caved and got an Amazon credit card. It wasn’t the $50 I saved on that order that finally made me pull the trigger but rather the 3% I can save on orders through Amazon.com in the future. I just recently signed up for this and haven’t seen the results yet, but I should be earning 3% cash back that I can use on Amazon.com purchases. So basically, if I need to buy something through Amazon, I use this card. If I buy it elsewhere, I use the Chase card.
Editor's Note: The Amazon Card deposits 3% of your previous month's "paid bill" into your account, which can be used directly on Amazon purchases. I have used this card for over a year and along with the Amazon Prime service, which gives you FREE Two-Day shipping on most items, makes Amazon a favorite retailer of mine for purchasing LEGO sets.
That being said, I have perfect credit and pay my card off every month (actually multiple times a month to avoid one large bill) and I would never suggest anyone sign up for a credit card if they cannot do this. If you end up paying any interest at all, then it defeats the whole purpose of the card and costs you more money than it saves.
Amazon Lightning Deals
Every day the first thing I do is check Amazon Lightning deals for the day. Usually, there is nothing good but every now and then they will have a popular LEGO set that can be purchased at a huge discount. Lightning deals only last for a certain amount of time and usually only have a certain number available, but when you do find one, you can save a lot. The best place to see LEGO Lightning deals is on the BrickPicker site on the Amazon Discounts Page. This page shows up-to-date deals on LEGO sets that are 10% OFF MSRP or more on the Amazon site.
Barnes and Noble Membership
I can't remember offhand what a Barnes and Noble membership costs per year(I think $25) but it pays off if you plan to buy a lot of LEGO sets. Basically you save 10% off of any purchase throughout the year by having the membership. They also frequently send out coupons which can be as much as 30% off. While Barnes and Noble doesn’t have the widest selection of LEGO sets, they do have some that are fairly popular, and they frequently have discounts on certain sets.
Damaged Box Discounts
Not sure if everyone knows this or not but a lot of places will give you discounts on damaged boxes. All you have to do is ask. Granted you have to ask the right person and the discounts vary depending on the damage and the set, but at times it can be worth it. A while back my wife and I found set 7208 at Barnes and Noble. It had minor box damage, so we asked if they would give a discount. They offered us 10% off, plus we used our 10% Barnes and Noble membership on top of that for an OK discount. I wouldn’t recommend buying damaged boxes for investing, but if it is for your own personal collection which you plan to build and you don’t mind having a box that isn’t in excellent condition, it can work out on occasion.
Bottle Returns
I added this one in because it makes me feel good about my LEGO purchase when I walk out of the store without having to spend a dime. Basically I consider my bottle returns money already spent. Sure I could return them and buy groceries or anything else, but why not make a good LEGO investment with the returns and maybe make a little more money on it. This one doesn’t really save you any money but at least it keeps you from spending “more” money. Of course it only works in states with a bottle deposit and stores like Walmart or Meijer.
Membership Cards
My wife has had membership cards at her favorite stores forever, but I am just recently signing up for my own, and I don’t know why I didn’t do it long ago. Most stores have some sort of membership you can join which will give you certain perks. Most times these memberships are free and give you huge benefits. Some just ask for your phone number, but most give you a card you carry around. I found using the Key Ring app on my phone works better so I don’t have 50 cards in my wallet everywhere I go. By having these memberships, you either save right there on the spot or later get reward coupons that can be used as cash or for other discounts. For example, Toys R Us rewards program rewards you by shopping there by sending you $5 coupons. I just recently received $30 in coupons that can be used just like cash in the store. Kmart does something very similar. Also, if you have a Meijer in your area I found this to be one of the best places to save by joining their mPerks membership. The membership is absolutely free and all you do is clip digital coupons that you want to use in the store before you shop. You then just type in your phone number and a pin at the register and it applies those coupons automatically. They also occasionally send out 20% off 1 item coupons.
Coupons
This one seems obvious but I can’t tell you how many times I have shopped online or in store only to find a coupon the next day. In most cases it is a trip back to the store to return and then rebuy the item with the coupon, but I have had cases where that didn’t work out because I couldn’t get back to the store before the coupon expires. If you are shopping online, check retailmenot.com before every purchase to see if there is a coupon you can use. In some cases it may just be a free shipping coupon but it still helps. If you are shopping in a brick and mortar store, then make sure you do your homework first. Look at their current flyer online and check if there are any coupons you can print from their site. Also check competitors ads because many stores will price match. Also, when you walk in the door, grab a flyer. Sometimes they contain coupons you can use on your purchase that day.
Target Red Card
Recently I went through the checkout line at Target and as usual they asked me if I would like to save X amount on my order by applying for a Target Red card. My response was “No thanks, I don’t want another credit card”. Well, the cashier responded that they also have a debit card version that will work just like a check. I still wasn’t sure I wanted it until she told me that with the card I save 5% on any purchases in store and online, and you also get free shipping on any online purchases. It sounded like a good deal and a way to finally match some of the Amazon.com prices, so I signed up. Basically, the 5% just about covers the tax (6% here in Michigan) and with free shipping it makes some prices on Legos just as good as Amazon. Plus, I have had much better luck on getting undamaged boxes from Target than I have Amazon, so I am now a happy Red Card holder.
ebates.com
ebates.com pays you money for shopping at online stores such as Amazon, Target, Kmart and more. I just recently started using this site and am very skeptical that I will ever get any money back on my purchases. I have heard both good and bad things about it, but it is definitely worth a try since it is free and takes very little work to first visit their site and then click over to Amazon or another online retailer. Only time will tell on this one.
Buy from out of state
Due to the Interstate Commerce Law, many purchases made from retailers located outside the buyer's state are tax free. Although the fine legal print might say differently, many online retail sites do not collect sales tax from buyers if you are from another state. This policy is void if the retailer has a Brick and Mortar store/warehouse in the state the buyer resides.
eBay.com
Sometimes you can get really great deals on eBay and other times not. What I do is a few different things. A few times a day I search the word "LEGO" by newest listings with a Buy it Now. Although rare, every now and then you can find someone that has just listed something at a really great price. Either they don’t know how valuable the LEGO set is or they want quick cash. In either case, it works out to your benefit. Usually these great deals go fast though. I have been beat out many times doing this. By the time I click the buy-it-now button, I get a message saying the item is already sold so I can say I am not the only one who does this. Another way is to search “LEGO” and view by auction format ending soonest. There are times of the day that very few people are bidding and you can get some great deals on auctions that have 0 bids ending soon. I don’t view Buy it Now listings when doing this because I figure if the item was on eBay for days at a great buy it now price and no one picked it up then it might not be worth it. This is just my opinion though, and you might have luck with buy it now and ending soonest listing. And finally, my favorite thing to do is search for "make an offer" LEGO listings. You would be surprised at what people will really take for an item when they have a real guaranteed offer right in front of them. I have been able to knock up to $20 off of a Buy it Now price just by making a fair offer.
Don’t Pay Over Retail
This may sound silly but always check the retail price on brickpicker.com before purchasing. Some stores (you know who you are TRU) will mark LEGO sets way up past retail and then put them on sale or a BOGO(Buy One Get One) 50% off deal. In some cases you are still paying way more than simply buying the set on Amazon. Just make sure you know the “real” price of the set before you jump on it.
And lastly…. Stalk The Return Line
Now I have never done this myself, but I have heard of others doing it. Basically, you linger on a busy day of returns in the weeks after Christmas and once a LEGO set that you may want gets returned you jump in line and ask if you can purchase that set. While this almost sounds a little creepy to me, I guess it works out for some. I would imagine maybe you would find a set that is now sold out but I don’t know. I guess instead of “stalking” you could always just go in once a day and ask if any Lego sets were returned that you could purchase. Count me out on this technique.
Conclusion
Money is tight. That is how the old saying goes. Every penny saved on a LEGO set purchase can go towards investing in new LEGO sets. These are just some tips I thought I would offer to help everyone save on their LEGO purchases. While many are already well known, others might be less known, but nonetheless effective in saving a couple of bucks. Whether it's a couple of dollars or a couple of hundred dollars, every little bit helps. Good luck and happy LEGO purchasing...
There are certain LEGO themes that just seem to explode in growth on the secondary LEGO market.  Most of the time, popular investment LEGO themes do well after the theme is retired or goes EOL (End of Line).  But on occasion, there are LEGO themes that appreciate higher than MSRP before the theme is discontinued.  Popular themes like Ninjago, Friends and the CUUSOO line of LEGO sets have shown remarkable growth in values on the secondary LEGO market, even though most sets are still available at retail prices.  Another such LEGO theme was released in 2012 that has shown similar trends, the Monster Fighters theme.  The Monster Fighters theme is based on those old Saturday Horror movies.  Included in these creative and unique LEGO sets are the monsters and men that created them and in some cases, tried to “fight” and destroy them.  Thus the title...Monster Fighters.  Most of the major monsters are included in the mix and the theme has a variety of minifigures, vehicles and buildings to make it quite interesting.  Let's take a look at the individual Monster Fighter sets and their descriptions, data and BrickPicker analysis for each...  
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Swamp Creature 9461 70 $6.99 $9.86 -12.04% 41.86% 41.86%                                                                            Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay
 
  Defeat the Swamp Creature and grab the moonstone!
On board his swamp boat, Frank Rock is on the lookout for the Swamp Creature's moonstone. If the Vampyre gets his undead hands on it first, he could use it to eclipse the sun and plunge the world into eternal darkness! Can he make it past his slimy adversary and ****** the stone? You decide! Includes 2 minifigures: Frank Rock and Swamp Creature.  
 
 
Includes 2 minifigures: Frank Rock and Swamp Creature Features swamp boat and swamp with green moonstone and fish Swamp boat features spinning rotor and dual flick missiles Accessories include moonstone and 3 weapons Grab the moonstone! Battle the Swamp Creature! Drive the swamp boat! The swamp boat measures over 2” (4cm) high, 2” (5cm) wide and 3" (7cm) long    
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Mummy 9462 90 $11.99 $12.65 4.55% 5.5% 5.5%                                                                       Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Stop the Mummy's chariot and take the moonstone!
In her cool helicopter, hero Ann Lee flies after the Mummy making an escape in the ghostly chariot. If she can't stop the Mummy from handing the moonstone over to the Vampyre, the world will be cloaked in eternal darkness. Help her to stop him! Includes 2 minifigures: Ann Lee and Mummy.
Includes 2 minifigures: Ann Lee and Mummy Vehicles include Mummy's chariot and helicopter Mummy's chariot features glow-in-the-dark skeleton horse Helicopter features spinning rotors Accessories include moonstone and 3weapons Attack from the skies! Capture the moonstone! Mummy's chariot and horse measure over 2” (6cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 5” (12cm) long Ann Lee's helicopter measures over 2” (6cm) high, 1” (3cm) wide and 2” (6cm) long Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Werewolf 9463 243 $19.99 $22.39 -7.4% 12.01% 12.01%                                                                           Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Avoid the treetop ambush and recover the Werewolf's moonstone!
Major Quinton Steele spots the Werewolf's moonstone under a tree. But it's an ambush! As he jumps out of his hot rod to ****** it, the sneaky Werewolf pounces on him from the treetops above! Can Major Quinton Steele fend him off with his giant blunderbuss weapon and make off with the moonstone? You decide! Includes 2 minifigures: Major Quinton Steele and Werewolf.  
Includes 2 minifigures: Major Quinton Steele and Werewolf Vehicles Major Quinton Steele's hot rod Includes tree, moonstone and a weapon Tree features opening top ambush section with space for the Werewolf Avoid the Werewolf's ambush attack! Watch out for the Werewolf's glow-in-the-dark claws! Fire the blunderbuss weapon! ****** the moonstone! Quinton Steele's hot rod measures over 2” (4cm) high, 2” (5cm) wide and 3” (8cm) long Tree measures over 5” (12cm) high, 7” (17cm) wide and 4” (9cm) deep  
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Vampyre Hearse 9464 314 $34.99 $36.92 7.33% 5.52% 5.52%                                                                        Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Stop the hearse and retrieve the Vampyre's moonstone!
The Vampyre and his faithful servant the zombie driver have the moonstone and are making a getaway in the black hearse. Can Dr. Rodney Rathbone catch them on his motorcycle and steal the moonstone? Or will Vampyre launch a surprise coffin attack and send the doctor spinning out of control? You decide! Includes 3 minifigures: Rodney Rathbone, Vampyre and the zombie driver.  
 
 
Includes 3 minifigures: Dr. Rodney Rathbone, Vampyre and the zombie driver Vehicles include the Vampyre's Hearse and Dr. Rodney Rathbone's motorcycle The Vampyre's Hearse features coffin with catapult function Accessories include moonstone and 4 weapons Stop the Vampyre's Hearse! Dodge the Vampyre's catapult attack! Retrieve the moonstone! Measures over 4” (10cm) high, 3” (7cm) wide and 7” (19cm) long Dr. Rodney Rathbone's motorbike measures over 2” (6cm) long   Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Zombies 9465 447 $39.99 $57.71 2.12% 44.81% 44.81% Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Help Jack McHammer get out of grave danger and seize the zombie moonstone!
Through the mist, Jack McHammer catches sight of the zombie graveyard. He's on a mission to recover the zombie moonstone, but as he reaches for it, the zombies rise from their coffins and attack! Can he make it back to his car and battle the zombies with the giant hammer? You decide! Includes 4 minifigures: Jack McHammer and 3 zombies.  
 
 
Includes 4 minifigures: Jack McHammer and 3 zombies Features zombie graveyard and Jack McHammer's car Zombie graveyard features crypt, 2 coffins and zombie attack function Accessories include zombie moonstone and a weapon Bash the zombies with the giant hammer! Run from the zombie attack! Seize the moonstone! Zombie graveyard measures over 4” (11cm) high, 7” (18cm) wide and 5” (12cm) deep Jack McHammer's car measures over 3” (8cm) high, 5” (12cm) wide and 6” (16cm) long  
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Crazy Scientist & His Monster 9466 430 $49.99 $50.32 -3.97% 0.66% 0.66%   Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Defeat the Crazy Scientist and his Monster at the laboratory!
Dr. Rodney Rathbone and Major Quinton Steele have stumbled upon the Crazy Scientist's laboratory. As our heroes reach for the moonstone, the dastardly scientist zaps his ghoulish monster and brings him to life! Can they escape to their car or will the Crazy Scientist's Monster win the battle and imprison them in the laboratory? You decide! Includes 4 minifigures: Rodney Rathbone, Quinton Steele, the Crazy Scientist and his monster.
 
 
Includes 4 minifigures: Rodney Rathbone, Quinton Steele, the Crazy Scientist and Monster The Crazy Scientist's laboratory features resurrection table with LEGO® light brick, catapult on the roof and prison with space for minifigure Vehicles include the hero's car Hero car features sliding seat and 3 flick missiles Accessories include moonstone and 3 weapons Zap the Monster to life! Launch a rooftop catapult attack! Fire the missiles! Zap the Monster with the light brick! Measures over 6” (16cm) high, 9” (24cm) wide and 5” (13cm) deep Hero car measures over 3” (8cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 4” (12cm) long  
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
The Ghost Train 9467 741 $79.99 $64.81 3.46% -18.98% -18.98% Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Stop the Ghost Train in its tracks and grab the moonstone!
The Ghost Train is getting away with the moonstone.  Help Frank Rock and Ann Lee catch it in their acrobatic airplane, suck up the ghosts with the vacuum weapon and grab the moonstone! Don't let them trap the heroes in the Ghost Train's prison! Includes 5 minifigures: Frank Rock, Ann Lee and 3 ghosts.  
 
Includes 5 minifigures: Frank Rock, Ann Lee and 3 ghosts Vehicles include Ghost Train and hero airplane Ghost Train features prison, detachable carriages and lots of glow-in-the-dark elements Hero airplane features vacuum weapon, flick missiles and spinning propeller Suck up the ghosts! Fire the missiles! Stop the ghost train! Includes glow-in-the-dark elements Measures over 4” (10cm) high, 4” (10cm) wide and 19” (48cm) long Hero airplane measures over 3” (7cm) high, 8” (21cm) wide and 8” (20cm) long   Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Vampyre Castle 9468 949 99.99 117.34 41.36 17.35 17.35 Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Enter Vampyre's castle and rescue the world from eternal darkness!
It's time for the final showdown with the Vampyre! He has gathered all 6 moonstones at his castle and is about to cloak the world in darkness forever so that his followers can roam free for the rest of eternity! Will our heroes Dr. Rodney Rathbone and Jack McHammer survive the castle's hidden spikes and traps to disable the moonstone device? Or will the Vampyre's bride and the manbats throw them into the castle dungeon? You decide! Includes 6 minifigures: Rodney Rathbone, Jack McHammer, the Vampyre, the Vampyre's bride and 2 manbats.
 
Includes 6 minifigures: Rodney Rathbone, Jack McHammer, the Vampyre, the Vampyre's bride and 2 manbats Features the Vampyre's Castle with the moonstone device, shooting spiders, hidden spikes, trapdoor, stairs, secret entrances, coffin, organ and dungeon Hero car includes a net launcher 4 weapons included Watch out for the spiders! Dodge the hidden traps! Defeat the Vampyre and his nightmarish helpers! Measures over 18” (45cm) high, 11” (28cm) wide and 10” (26cm) deep Hero car measures over 1” (5cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 6” (16cm) long   
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Haunted House 10228 2064 $179.99 $214.64 7.19% 19.25% 19.25% Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   Enter the haunted house at your peril!
The crooked Haunted House is home to the scariest ghosts and monsters. Tremble in fear as you open the gate, go weak at the knees as you step onto the porch and gasp in horror at the fireplace, kitchen, office, folding staircase, bedroom, potion room, music room and collection of other creepy objects. Dare you enter the Haunted House?  
Add to your LEGO® Monster Fights Collection with the first officlal LEGO® Haunted House! Includes 6 minifigures: 2 glow-in-the-dark ghosts, Vampyre, Vampyre's Bride, Zombie chef and butler Features unique ‘crooked’ design featuring boarded up windows and working front gate. Haunted House opens to reveal detailed interior with 3 floors. First floor features fireplace that swings open and displays a ship in a bottle on the mantle. Cook up a ghoulish meal with the Zombie chef in the kitchen complete with old-style stove, jars and table! Write letters from the Vampyre’s haunted office! Pull the lever hidden in the chimney to release the drop down staircase and access the top floor! Top floor features gramophone, records and newspaper LEGO® elements. Customize the Haunted House with new stickers for wall hangings, spider webs and curtains! Measures 15.4” (39cm) high, 9.4” (24cm) wide and 7.5” (19cm) deep  
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Zombie Chauffer Coffin Car 30200 32 $3.49 $8.94 4.68% 155.43% 155.43% Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   LEGO.com Description: N/A
 
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Ghost 30201 33 3.49 14.06 -0.42 301.71 301.71 Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   LEGO.com Description: N/A
 
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Zombie Car 40076 60 N/A $11.10 18.34% N/A N/A Buy from Amazon | Buy from eBay   LEGO.com Description: N/A
 
 
Set Name Set # Pieces MSRP (US $) Current Value (US $) % Change (Last Month) % Change (From Retail) CAGR (%)
Monster Fighters Promotional Pack 5000644 12 N/A $11.50 N/A N/A N/A Buy from eBay   LEGO.com Description: N/A
 
As the reader can see, there is quite the variety of LEGO sets in the Monster Fighters theme.  Small and large.  Cost effective and expensive.  Hearses, houses, planes, trains, graves, zombies, bats, rats...whatever.  There is something for everyone.  The theme caters to the casual fan and serious collector and investor.  For instance, the 9461 Swamp Creature is a tremendous value for the investor with limited funds to invest, while the iconic 10228 Haunted House will be talked about for years as one of the all time classic LEGO sets.  Also, Zombies seem to play a major role in the theme and we all know how well the 8683-5 Zombie, from the Series 1 Collectible Minifigures collection, has done in the secondary market.  A $2 Zombie collectible minifigure has hit the $20 mark in the secondary market, so one would like to think that Zombies are moneymakers and will enable some sets in the theme to do very well in the secondary market.  If I have any issue with this theme it's the lack of sets and no proposed new Monster Fighters sets for 2013.  But on the positive side, a theme with limited sets is one that can be collected in its entirety, which, in the LEGO world, is rather difficult to do on a regular basis.
  As stated above, the one thing that stands out to me with this theme is that no new sets are planned for 2013 as of this writing.  It looks to be a LEGO theme that has a limited life span.  While I have no proof of this and there is no telling when these current sets will be retired, an educated guess would be this is a one and done theme.  One year and on to the next theme.  It is quite possible a new Monster Fighters set or two will be released around the Halloween holiday, but I would bet against it.  Why?  If you look closely at the current Monster Fighter sets, the majority of generic monsters have been turned into minifigures and sets.  Vampires, Frankenstein, The Mummy and Wolfman, Zombies and the Creature(from the Black Lagoon) all have been immortalized in ABS plastic.  What's left?  Maybe the Invisible Man and mostly 'themed' movie monsters like Jason(Voorhees), Freddy(Kruger) and Michael(Myers).  I don't think LEGO wants to go there...LOL.  Another reason why I think this theme is limited in its production is that set 9465, The Zombies, looks to be EOL already.  The set is “sold out” on LEGO S@H and is not available at MSRP at any other retailer.  Now, being sold out is not a definite indicator of a set being EOL, but from the word on the proverbial LEGO street, from fans who have tried to buy this set, is that no more are going to be available.  Time will tell.
  So what does this mean to the investment potential of this theme?  Well, for starters, limited production of a popular LEGO theme means big time appreciation later in the secondary LEGO market.  Depending on how long this theme remains in production will determine how valuable the current sets will become in the secondary LEGO market.  If set 9465, The Zombies, is the first to actually go EOL, then the others might follow soon after.  But if the 9465 comes back in stock on LEGO S@H in a couple of weeks, then all bets are off and this theme might be produced for months.  My gut feeling is that this theme is winding down, with the exception of the 10228 Haunted House, which will be produced for quite a while due to its popularity, but what do I really know...I thought the 10188 Death Star was going EOL two years ago.  Point is, this is a quality theme, with quality sets, that engages adults and children alike.  It has shown great investment potential so far as indicated by the Theme CAGR and depending on how much longer the Monster Fighters are produced, the sets will either show strong growth in the secondary market or have the possibility to explode in the secondary market.  Either way, now is the time to buy these sets if you haven't already, because you never know when the LEGO Grim Reaper will come and “retire” these sets...
The point of investing in anything is to increase a person's net worth through the increased value of what we purchase. There's three main parts to an investment cycle where decisions need to be made, which affect its value: When you buy, While you hold, and When you sell. Making money the first two ways has been extensively covered, (very well I might add), by brickpicker.com. They identify stores' sites with their specified discounts, eBay listings below each item's analysis, and more. Brickpicker also assists you during the holding stage by offering advice on which sets have potential for increasing their values, as well as updated analysis of how each set is doing and current trends. So this article's intent is to cover the last stage of investing: selling...and not so much the When “to” sell aspect (because that is another large and in-depth article in itself), but Where to sell a LEGO set and Whom to sell it to. For without this aspect, any potential gains will not be realized.
Part I: Where to Sell
So you have a LEGO set...you bought it cheap, it increased in value and now it has plateaued or even decreased. So, you decided to remove it from your Brickfolio and sell it, but where? There are several venues available to you: Bricklink, eBay, Amazon, Craig's List, or private sales. But which one you go with should depend on your comfort level for risk, and how much you are willing to spend to sell. I've personally bought and sold on all but Amazon and all have their advantages and disadvantages. Let's look at each one, advantages and disadvantages, and provide a recommendation.
eBay
eBay is a well-known option that's been around almost as long as the World Wide Web. It has two primary and separate fees (three if you use Paypal): insertion and final value fees. You can read about them in detail here: http://pages.ebay.com/help/sell/questions/what-fees.html. Insertion fees will usually run $0.50 plus whatever add-on features you want. Pics are now free and even a requirement, so the initial costs have come down significantly. Final value fees are just what they sound like, the value of your item at sale. Although the amount depends on what you're selling and for how much, most LEGO sets will go between $50 to $1,000. This example makes the final value fee $5.50 for the first $50 plus 6% of the remaining balance up to $1,000. Paypal also depends on the size of the transaction, but ends up being around 3.6%. Overall, it's about 11% from start to finish.
A $200 sale would be as such:
$5.50($5.50 of first $50) + $9.00(6% of remaining $150) = $14.50 = 7.25% of $200 + 3.6% for Paypal = 10.85% of transaction
eBay Advantages:
Higher volume of customers = quicker sales, higher prices You can auction or do a fixed price sale Insurance included for you and buyer Shipping service available at discounted price Free educational products to take advantage of Free mass loading software Detailed sales records Relatively great customer service Easy international sales Seller rating system and discounts for highest rated If you want maintain a long-term presence, its easier to start/maintain your 'brand.' eBay Disadvantages:
Higher sales fees in comparison to some competitors They tend to be strict about their policies, so read them first Reputation has a long memory (an advantage for a buyer) and can take a year to clean itself up. Caps on sales are used to prevent you from taking on more than you can chew, but can be increased as you prove yourself. Amazon.com
Amazon is another option for those wishing to say goodbye to their LEGO sets. Amazon's a very trusted site and one of the pioneers along with eBay. You can see a detailed fee schedule:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=1161240. Again there are two fees: referral and closing fees. For toys, the referral fee is 15%, plus a variable closing of $0.45 plus $0.05/lb. So depending on the size of what you're selling, your fees may be well over 15%, or a flat 15%.
Amazon Advantages:
Excellent customer service Higher volume of customers = quicker sales, higher prices Easy listing with their online catalog Charge back protection (if you use credit cards) Amazon guarantees all marketplace sales. Amazon Disadvantages:
Painfully high fees Sellers must adhere strictly to the site's policies or lose their presence on it. It's hard to establish your individuality or brand. Craig's List
Craig's List is very inexpensive...very! However, you usually need to do a face-to-face transaction, so eventually, you have to trust. There have been crimes associated with Craig's List transactions, so we recommend meeting in a public area and only accept cash. For the buyer, there is no recourse for faulty items, so thoroughly check the item you are buying before accepting it. Unless you are posting a job search, your fees are zero and the site shows where you are located (not your address), so your buyers can determine if they want to go that far to buy it.
Craig's List Advantages:
No fees Buyers are guided to Seller in their local area. Not just for selling, but can be used to look for services, jobs, cars, etc.(equivalent to the classified section at the back of a newspaper). High volume of users, but not all buyers. Easy to use Craig's List Disadvantages:
Major issues related to fraudulent sellers and buyers Buyer and seller meet face to face, so caution must be used during transaction. Never meet at your home or a private area. No protection to buyer or seller after sale...example: insurance No feedback or rating system Bricklink
Bricklink is the eBay of the LEGO world. Everyone who invests and collects LEGO bricks is very familiar with this site and its clumsiness. The site has almost everything you could want, LEGO-wise, but the process of buying requires the buying, then the invoice, then the paying, then the shipping. All of which is handled by email and Paypal. But Bricklink only charges you 3% of the purchase price, plus the Paypal fees. Most of the LEGO info is already established there, so there's less info to put in.
Bricklink Advantages:
Very cheap fee schedule. A very specified educated user/customer International customer base Easy to list products Bricklink Disadvantages:
Not as large of a customer base Buying and selling can be cumbersome and non-intuitive. No shipping service A lot of like competition No insurance other than what Paypal provides. Description and photos of items being sold is limited. If all these fees seem overly complicated, fear not my young Padawan. There are many apps that determine the fees for you and some even compare them so you can decide the most cost effective route. We recommend the Auction Calculator, Professional Edition, by Logicworks. It determines fees based on preset variables; from eBay store ownership and Powerseller status, to Amazon's referral fees. Compare the fees and see which is best for you.
Overall, we'd recommend selling LEGO bricks and sets on either eBay and Bricklink. eBay has a wider audience, that includes the entire population of buyers, not just the diehard LEGO fans that have heard of Bricklink. eBay does allow you to set a price and let it run til it sells, but it also has the option to auction. So if you're in an emergency and need your money fast, eBay's the only way to go. However, if you're patient and want the most money out of your set, Bricklink may be your solution. You can still establish your price where you want it and sooner or later someone will come along and buy it. Both Bricklink and eBay use Paypal, which is a very safe option for both sides of the transaction. Both sites have relatively low fees in comparison to Amazon, so it all boils down to how fast do you want to sell it and how much you're willing to pay in fees for more exposure.
Part II: Whom to Sell To
So, we discussed where to sell your LEGO set, but to who you sell a LEGO set to can also make a difference and additional profits for the seller. In Part I, we recommended Bricklink and eBay for the LEGO seller. Bricklink's low fees and eBay's ease, safety and exposure outweigh Amazon's and Craig's List's advantages. But another major factor is their ability to sell internationally. The World's population is roughly 7 billion people and the US's population is 311 million. That means 95% of your potential customer base is outside the US borders. Still, most eBay sellers in the US elect not to sell internationally. Some sellers refer to customs paperwork and shipping restrictions/costs as the main ingredients leading to this decision. Some also worry about international import duties and charges. With most, its just the fear of the unknown and the potential for losing a package overseas. But with just a bit of education, you'll see that shipping internationally is actually very easy... especially if you're using eBay or Bricklink.
The additional costs of international shipping, such as import duties, are the responsibility of the buyer. The package arrives at their country's customs department and send this charge directly to the buyer, so it's not really something to worry about. The customs paperwork is an additional requirement to what you would need to do for a US buyer, but it couldn't be more simple... again, especially if you use eBay. When creating a shipping document, you first enter the weight and dimensional info as you normally would. Once entered, a US sale would lead you to print out the shipping label. But for international labels, you're instead redirected to input product information for your customs forms PS form 2976. On eBay, this is prefilled for you, using the data from your listing. All you really needs to do is click the acknowledgment field, (located at the bottom by your signature block and usually highlighted by a red arrow), that says you've read and understand what you can and cannot ship. From there, what you do next depends on how you ship, First Class and Parcel, or Priority. First Class and Parcel will print out a single label that you must sign and date and then attach as you normally would. For Priority, the only difference is the number of labels you'll print out. You'll cut along the dotted lines, sign, date, and put them into a Ziploc bag. From here, just tape the bag to the package as your label. Be sure to sign and date all the forms, but the sender's copy, before putting them into the bag; label facing out. The tracker for international packages currently tracks only to the US border, so it's only good for the start of its journey. But this will change once a new, easier system becomes available to the regular public.
Besides a larger customer base, there's an even better reason to sell international...price! Being born in the US is a blessing in many ways, but one of the most overlooked is our price of LEGO bricks and sets. The US LEGO market is significantly cheaper than most of the world. In Australia, the prices are about 33% higher, Europe the same way. Even Asia and Japan are significantly higher. When you combine this with the week dollar, many other countries are dying to buy their LEGO sets here. I've only been selling LEGO internationally for two months, but the day I started my sales went up 40%. Not to mention, it's a great way to teach geography to your kids. We have a world map on the wall and every international sale, in a new country, means another star and a chance to learn a bit about it. So far we've got over 34 separate stars we've sold to; amounting to over 147 sales in just two months...which amounts to almost half our sales.
There's always an opposite side to every coin and this one's no exception. So what are some of the down sides? There's the lack of tracking outside the US borders and some government's postal services aren't as trustworthy as ours, leading to missing packages. Rarely, there's even a communication gap. However, the benefits vastly outweigh the costs, especially with a new program just getting started at eBay, the Global Shipping Program. You can read about it here: http://announcements.ebay.com/2012/11/attention-sellers-upcoming-program-will-make-selling-internationally-as-easy-as-domestic/. Essentially, it's a program where you'll ship to a place stateside and they'll handle everything else, all the way to its final destination anywhere in the world. Now, no one has an excuse not to ship internationally. But of course we need to be fair, so here is a list of advantages vs disadvantages:
Advantages:
Enormous customer base Easy to compete price-wise with other local LEGO stores and sites Can sell at higher sales price...even new sets(This is why some new and “available from primary retailer” LEGO sets have current BrickPicker prices higher than MSRP). Bring money into the US economy Insurance available at discount New program will make international shipping as easy as domestic Disadvantages:
Increased number of fraudulent buyer Potential for corrupted postal services Extended shipping times, up to 2-4 weeks and sometimes longer Tracker only works to US border, but will change with new program As you can see, by picking the right selling venue and selling to the right people, you can actually increase your gains from your LEGO investments when it is time to sell. Bricklink, eBay, Amazon and Craig's List all have their advantages and disadvantages and what works for one LEGO seller might not work for another. Also, international shipping, while lucrative for some sellers like myself, might not be worth the added hassle for other sellers. That being said, the new Global Shipping Program, when launched by eBay, will give eBay a decided edge over its competitors and along with its other advantages, will make eBay the most effective site to sell your LEGO sets in my opinion. So, pick smart, buy smart, and sell smart. All three basics of LEGO investing should be taken into consideration over the life of your investments...otherwise, you might be selling yourself short.
There are over 9000 LEGO sets in existence. Of those 9000+ LEGO sets, the vast majority have been retired or in LEGO terms, gone EOL(End Of Line). The common topics among forum members usually relate to newer LEGO sets, while the LEGO sets that are five years old or older, get very little attention in terms of buying as an investment. New sets like the 10211 Grand Emporium, 10197 Fire Brigade, 10217 Diagon Alley and 21102 CUUSOO Minecraft get a lot of love from LEGO investors. There is constant speculation of when these sets will retire and how high they will appreciate. There is constant dialogue about the various sales and deals for new sets, but are we overlooking thousands of older and retired sets in the process? I say the answer to that question is a definite...yes.
  For our purposes here, an “old” set will be any set that is five years old or older. A set like the 10188 Death Star (or “Live Star” as some members call it) is an exception to that rule in that it is still being produced five years after its initial release, but removing the 10188 and others like it from the equation, leaves a solid standard in which to separate new and old sets. It is my belief that the majority of LEGO sets will be retired in a year or two after initial release and make its largest increase in value in the secondary market soon after EOL(approximately years three-four after initial release). Around year five, the set's rise in value in the secondary market seems to slow on an annual basis, eventually leveling off at some period...and maybe even dropping in value at some point. Many LEGO collectors and investors will sell their investment LEGO sets around this time(~five years) frame and start the process again with another new LEGO set. It is a method that has worked for many LEGO investors over the years and has made many a LEGO investor/reseller some solid profits. But can this technique be applied to a set that is older than five years old and come up with a solid return on investment? Let's take a look...
  When I discuss older LEGO sets and their investment potential, I always like to discuss examples of how I bought older sets that have appreciated well five or more years after release.
  Take a look at the chart below. These are some examples of LEGO sets I bought after they were retired. All the sets were at least five years old and retired when I bought them. I bought them at various times on EBAY auctions/Buy It Nows and were all MISB/NIB condition. Take a look:  
 
Set NameSet #Year ReleasedYear PurchasedPrice Paid (US$)Current Value (US$)My Profit (US$)My Simple ROI(%)My CAGR (%)UCS Star Destroyer1003020022008$299$1021$722241%35.94%UCS X-Wing Fighter719120002008$275$741$466169%28.12%Vezon & Kardas1020420062011$179$332$15385%85.47%UCS Rebel Blockade Runner1001920012008$284$731$447157%26.66%Statue of Liberty345020002008$550$1220$670122%22.04%UCS Darth Maul1001820012008$220$533$313150%25.91%Enzo Ferrari 1:10865320052010$185$310$12568%29.45%UCS Death Star II1014320052010$425$916$491115%46.81%LEGO Mini Figure372320002010$210$391$18186%36.45%As you can see, there are some really nice gains there from sets that were five years old or more at the time of purchase. These are just a few of my more memorable sets I have acquired over the years. There are hundreds of other smaller sets, such as the 10020 Santa Fe Super Chief and 10026 UCS Naboo Starfighter, that I have bought that meet this criteria and appreciated nicely as well, but I do not want to bore you with charts. As a matter of fact, many of my smaller, older sets have appreciated even better than these large scale LEGO sets. I have tens of dozens of older STAR WARS(especially the mini sets) and Bionicle sets that have exploded since I bought them in the secondary market. Many have since leveled off in price, but that doesn't diminish the strong returns on investment that were achieved. Ideally, I should have sold off some of these sets a year or two ago, to maximize profits, but I am a collector first, investor second. What is funny is that my first 100+ or so sets wee all old and retired LEGO sets. The 10179 Millennium Falcon was my first “new” purchase. These older and retired LEGO sets have served me well over the years and have made me a tidy profit(on paper at least).
  When I started collecting LEGO sets, there was no such thing as BrickPicker.com. It was a figment of our imagination. I had to search and search and research to find decent deals. I would scan the EBAY LEGO auctions for HOURS every day, looking for older, cool sets that intrigued me. I would scan the Brickset.com pages to look up old sets and jot down information to compare sets. I would come up with lists that were pages long with chicken scratch charts and such to find sets that were worthy of my investment dollar. Heck...it wasn't even investing to me. It was collecting and a lot of damn fun...and addictive to say the least. Well, Jeff and I are here to make your life a little easier than mine was five years ago. With the development of our new, Top Performing Retired and Older Set Chart, you will be able to see a list of the top 50 appreciating older and retired LEGO sets over the past six months. The chart will show you sets that are at least five years old and have been retired and have appreciated well...many with gains of 15% or more in six months. It will also show you buying options for the particular set of interest within a given range of prices. Remember, these sets have been around quite awhile, so this sort of return on older sets is quite amazing.
 
So in conclusion, I hope that you utilize this new chart and consider buying an older LEGO set as an investment. The explosion of LEGO investing and the interest in new sets like the Modular Buildings have put a premium on sets like the 10211 Grand Emporium and 10197 Fire Brigade and have caused thousands of LEGO investors to buy multiples of these sets in the hopes of a huge score one day. While this may pan out in the future and these sets might turn a wonderful profit, the likelihood of this happening is growing less and less with each new set that is sold. I often tell people to think “outside the box” when choosing LEGO sets to invest in. Buying new sets, waiting a few years and flipping them, sounds easy...but with anything, positive results are not guaranteed. By diversifying your collection and looking at older and retired LEGO sets to sink your money into, you can stand to make a pretty penny like I have over the years investing in these more traveled sets. LEGO investing is a grind. It takes time, patience and a willingness to risk some money. Don't be afraid to spend $500 on an old set that has appreciated well, but still shows signs of continued growth. You never know, that $500 can turn into $1000 in the blink of an eye. Maybe the next 10182 Cafe Corner or 10190 Market Street is somewhere on the chart. Good luck...
 
Big and bold, the 10214 Tower Bridge is one of the largest LEGO sets ever created. With 4287 pieces, the 10214 Tower Bridge is in fact the third largest LEGO set ever created. That is quite an impressive feat considering there are over 9000 LEGO sets in existence. A beautiful recreation of the grand Tower Bridge that spans the River Thames in London, this particular LEGO model would make a wonderful display piece in any home or office. But does this huge set have huge potential written all over it? Quite possibly. Let's take a look at the LEGO Shop @ Home description of the set:
  Build London's famous Tower Bridge!
Stretching over the River Thames since 1894, the famous Tower Bridge of London, England is one of the most recognizable landmarks in the world. Now you can add this timeless classic to your LEGO world buildings collection! Designed with advanced building techniques and rare colors and elements, the Tower Bridge is complete with its iconic paired towers and a drawbridge that really opens. Fun to build and display, it locks together solidly but can be taken apart in sections for easy transport. Includes 4 miniature vehicles; a black London taxi, a traditional red double-decker bus, a yellow truck and a green automobile. Completed model measures 40" (102 cm) long, 17" (45 cm) high and 10" (26 cm) wide.
 
Includes 4 miniature vehicles: a black London taxi, a yellow truck, green automobile and even a traditional red double-decker bus! Features the iconic paired towers and a drawbridge that really opens and closes! Includes unique printed shield! Features hundreds of 1x1 slopes in tan! Many useful arches, angular bricks in tan! Includes 4 blue base plates and over 80 windows! Tower Bridge is ideal for building and display - it can be taken apart in sections for easy transport! Add this amazing landmark to your LEGO world buildings collection! Completed model measures an impressive 40" (102 cm) long, 17" (45 cm) high and 10" (26 cm) wide. For those of you investors who don't currently own the 10214 Tower Bridge, now would be a good time to start thinking about grabbing one (or more, if you have the means.)
 
This colossal LEGO landmark has just hit its two year anniversary, and as many of you know, the two other LEGO sets from the Advanced Models Buildings theme, had a lifespan of right around two years. The 10181 Eiffel Tower was available at LEGO.com for approximately 24 months, and the 10189 Taj Mahal was available for about 26 months.
 
Speaking of the 10181 Eiffel Tower and the 10189 Taj Mahal, has anyone happened to look at what these sets are selling for these days? The 10189 Taj Mahal is a very cool set, and is going to capture anyone's interest upon the first glance, but it is also the biggest LEGO set ever as far as piece count goes. This might have something to do with why people are regularly selling a new in box set for between $1,200 and $1,500 on eBay. Not bad for a set that had an original price tag of $299.99. Then there is the 10181 Eiffel Tower. This set debuted in October 2007. As stated earlier, it had a shelf life of almost exactly two years. It was available for purchase from your friendly neighborhood LEGO store for $199.99. My research shows that the last three new in box sets sold for $1,175, $1,199, and $1,274.95 on eBay. Once again, not a bad day's work on a $200 set. Check out the chart below with the investment data for the three large Advanced Model Buildings:
 
   
Set NameSet #YearMSRP (US$)Current Value (US$)Pieces% Return Last 6 Months% Return Last Year% Return From RetailCAGR (%)Tower Bridge102142010$239.99$2254,2873.42%5.28%-6.45%-3.28%Taj Mahal101892008$299.99$11425,92213.03%59.68%280.7%39.68%Eiffel Tower101812007$199.99$8953,4286.32%8.25%347.4%34.94%
 
 
The 10214 Tower Bridge, as of this writing, has not been retired as of yet and is still available from all major retailers, so the data above for the 10214 Tower Bridge is not that relative at the moment. But it does show you how similar the 10214 Tower Bridge is to the 10181 Eiffel Tower and 10189 Taj Mahal in set pieces and prices...and maybe future growth. As stated earlier, all three sets mentioned thus far are part of the Advanced Models Buildings theme. In fact, they are the ONLY three sets in the theme. The first two that have retired have appreciated very nicely, and the Tower Bridge should be no exception. The price tag might be a bit of a hurdle for some at $239.99, but please be aware that at 5.6 cents per piece, it is an exceptional value. Plus, if history is on our side here, that $240 looks like it should easily become $1,000 if you are willing to give it a couple years. This set has also been heavily discounted recently, even as low as $180, so it pays to pay attention to Brickpicker.com alerts on LEGO deals from the various major retailers.
 
  In conclusion, it would appear that the Tower Bridge may very well be one of the safest bets out there. There just aren't a whole lot of sets to compare it to, but I say that in the best way possible. It is a set that doesn't get a lot of attention, but don't let that fool you. The smart LEGO investor has several in their collection. People seem to love real world landmark sets that are done on a large scale. It will be interesting to see what is next in this highly successful series, but until then, ****** up a Tower Bridge while it is still available and tuck it away under your pillow, or wherever it is you keep your LEGO sets...
The age old question in the LEGO investment world is should I buy a "new" LEGO set, one that has no track record or growth data to examine, or should a LEGO investor look to older LEGO sets that have appreciated well, but may have their best growth days behind them?  Both have possible advantages.  The newer sets can be bought easily at a discount from the retail price and can be found in mint and sealed condition with little issues.  The older sets are proven commodities that have appreciated over several years and have shown to be investment winners.  Both have disadvantages as well.  Newer sets are an unknown commodity and a positive return on investment is not guaranteed.  Retired sets are more expensive and may be past their investment prime.  This leads us to our topic LEGO set, the 10185 Green Grocer, which, by all accounts, is considered an older and retired LEGO set.
I usually try to recommend newer LEGO sets to LEGO investors because they are more cost effective and readily available to the buying public.  But every once in awhile, I come across an older and more expensive LEGO set that has shown positive growth and has great potential, even after being retired for years.  I wrote about one such set, the 10184 Town Plan, in another one of my Evaluation Corner articles.  Another such set is the 10185 Green Grocer.  The Green Grocer is a Modular Building and was released in 2008 for $149.99.  It has 2,352 pieces and 4 minifigures.
Let's take a look at the LEGO.com description of the Green Grocer:
Expand your LEGO® neighborhood or start a new one with the Green Grocer! Designed in a modular style, this colorful and lively building features a grocery store and classic apartments that can be built, rebuilt and rearranged to suit your own LEGO town. Detailed architecture includes realistic interior, courtyard access, a roof terrace and fire escape, lots of windows and doors, and much more! Build a street layout by combining Green Grocer with 10190 Market Street and 10182 Café Corner! Top 3 floors lift off to reveal inner rooms! Grocery store features a blue and white awning, cash register, bins for bread, vegetables and fruit, refrigerator and tiled floor! Apartments have lots of details like bay windows, fireplace with tools, grandfather clock and windows that open to the fire escape! Stairs lead up to the apartments and to the roof terrace! Roof terrace has chairs, umbrellas, grill and flowers! Check the mailboxes for letters! Fire escape ladders move up and down! Access the courtyard behind the building! Street features lampost, fire hydrant and light fixtures! Includes 4 townspeople minifigures, plus a cat and rat! Measures 14" (35cm) high and 10" (25cm) wide!
Being one of the seven “Über” popular Modular buildings is a very positive attribute of this set.  The Modular Buildings, especially the retired Modular Buildings like the 10182 Cafe Corner and 10190 Market Street, are one of the most popular LEGO themes in existence.  Along with popularity, amazing growth has been shown by all three retired Modular Buildings, especially the older 10182 Cafe Corner and 10190 Market Street, which have been around another year or so longer than the 10185 Green Grocer.  Take a look a the chart below:
 
Set Name and Number (Year Released) MSRP/Retail Price (US$) Current Value (US$) 6 Month % change 1 Year % change Retail % change CAGR (%) 10182 Cafe Corner (2007) $139.99 $1,122.45 5.82% 44.14% 701.81% 51.64% 10190 Market Street (2007) $89.99 $1,069.14 10.40% 31.39% 1088.07% 64.04% 10185 Green Grocer (2008) $149.99 $562.26 2.41% 42.32% 274.86% 39.15%  
Take a look at the two graphs below showing the strong and steady growth of the 10182 Cafe Corner and 10190 Market Street over the past 21 months:


 
  The growth of these three retired Modular Buildings is just amazing.  What is even more amazing is that the 10190 Market Street was a better investment than the iconic 10182 Cafe Corner.  Along with the 10179 UCS Millennium Falcon, the 10182 Cafe Corner was considered by many LEGO investors as one of the two greatest LEGO investments of all time.  The 10190 Market Street was never considered in the same league, to be quite honest, by most LEGO investors and collectors.  But with an increase of over 1000% from retail and a CAGR of 64%, there are few LEGO sets, if any, that can compare with that sort of growth.  So how does this relate to the 10185 Green Grocer and its future investment potential?  Well, for one thing, the 10185 Green Grocer was the third Modular Building released by LEGO.  It was released a year or so after the 10182 Cafe Corner and 10190 Market Street and was retired about a year or so later.  So it is possible that there could be some potential strong growth in the next year that was similar to the growth of the10182 Cafe Corner and 10190 Market Street during the same investment time period after EOL(End of Line).  Why?  Because I assuming that the LEGO “completists” will want to collect  every Modular Building set and an older and retired set like the 10185 Green Grocer is one of the seven existing Modular buildings needed to do so.  Also, the Green Grocer was retired before the huge potential of these Modular Buildings were realized, so many LEGO collectors passed on this set, but might entertain buying it now, even a high prices.  A final reason for possible interest in this set is the Green Grocer is an attractive and well done LEGO set and many AFOLs with extra disposable income would love to add it to their collection.
The one thing that strikes me about the data is about 21 months ago, the 10182 Cafe Corner had a value of about $588 and the 10190 Market Street had a value of around $560.  The current values of those two sets are $1122 and $1069 respectively...almost DOUBLE(approximately 91%) in 21 months!  The current value of the newer 10185 Green Grocer is around $562.  If you extrapolate that type of growth to the 10185 Green Grocer in 21 months, a value of $1073 is produced.  Now, I'm not guaranteeing that if you buy a MISB 10185 Green Grocer for $600 right now that it will appreciate to $1000+ in a year and a half, but history indicates that there is still that sort of potential with the 10185 Green Grocer.  Maybe the 10185 Green Grocer will never reach that lofty price.  Maybe the 10185 Green Grocer is not as popular as the earlier Modular Buildings.  Maybe there were more Green Grocers produced and they are less rare.  Maybe the LEGO secondary market crashes.  Maybe people get tired of the Modular Buildings and buy only Ninjago sets.
Maybe...Maybe...Maybe...Maybe the 10185 hits $1200 in 21 months...
In conclusion, I would like to leave you with an example of a similar situation I encountered two and a half years ago.  The 10182 Cafe Corner was selling for $550-$600 for a MISB set and I did not have one.  I wondered what all the hub-bub was about with this retired LEGO set?  To me, anyway, it was a rather gaudy-looking set that was unattractive to a LEGO STAR WARS aficionado like myself.  But I took the chance and picked one up for $575 with free shipping on EBAY.  Needless to say, I have doubled my original investment.  I also bought a retired NIB(New In Box...not mint)10190 Market Street for $400 at the same time and that has exceeded my expectations as well.  I would like to think that the 10185 Green Grocer has a similar growth pattern over the next year or so.  These retired Modular Buildings are a rare commodity and getting rarer all the time and many LEGO fans want the complete set.  The 10185 Green Grocer might not hit the $1000 mark, but even if it hits the $800-$900 level in the next year, that is over 30% return on investment.  Not bad in my book...or any investor's book for that matter.
Whether you are a wet-behind-the-ears AFOL(Adult Fan Of Lego) fresh out of the Dark Ages, or a seasoned brick veteran, there are two major classifications to consider when evaluating a good set for investment purposes: licensed franchises such as the STAR WARS and Lord Of The Rings(LOTR) themes or original LEGO series such as the City or Friends themes. There is strong evidence for either category to do well in its own right, so how do you choose?
When looking at current values of the most successful LEGO sets that are now enjoying the sky high prices that accompany EOL(End Of Line) status, there is a good mix of licensed vs. original. The UCS(Ultimate Collector's Series) Millennium Falcon 10179 is the talk of the town these days with a Brickpicker price guide value of $2169, but let's not forget about the Cafe Corner Modular that went from $140 in 2009 to an astonishing $1,122 just a few years later. Although the Falcon boasts a higher price tag, it has not increased in value eight times(!) its original MSRP like the Cafe Corner 10182 has. I think a lot of people miss the fact that if you had purchased three Cafe Corners with the same money that it cost you to get one UCS Falcon, you would have a higher overall return on investment by over a thousand dollars.
Another great comparison is the City themed Town Plan 10184 set vs. the Batcave 7783 set from the original Batman theme. These sets came out around the same time, and had similar enough retail prices for the sake of this discussion. Both sets now book at right around $450, and are highly sought after. City is an original LEGO theme that has enjoyed a lot of success over the years, and as we all know, Batman is a well-documented, ever-popular theme that first appeared in 1939.
The Grand Carousel 10196 is an impressive piece of brick engineering that has an equally impressive price guide value of $816. It is part of the Miscellaneous Advanced Models series. Another set came out around the same time, had an almost identical price and piece count, but a much larger fan base. The set I speak of is the Death Star II, Set No. 10143. As I am sure you have guessed by now, it has a very similar price guide value as the Grand Carousel at $876.
These three examples represent only a minuscule amount of data in the case of licensed vs. original. So how do you know which is the winner? Which one is the safer bet? Is there really a magic formula or concrete answer? The answer to that question is…no. Sorry to disappoint, but no. The reason there is no one clear cut favorite over the other is that all LEGO sets are high-quality, well-made, and a lot of fun. Star Wars may have a humongous following, and the Death Star is the stuff of legend, but somehow a previously unknown 3,263 piece carousel has found a way to give Darth Vader's floating fortress of foulness a run for its money.
The difference between a Cafe Corner 10182 and a Millennium Falcon 10179 represents the difference between one LEGO collector and the next. Everybody has their own preferences and tastes. I personally would be inclined to want to build the Falcon, but let's face it, there are people out there who have never seen Star Wars and have no interest in building the fastest hunk of junk in the galaxy. Maybe they are an architect by trade, and would love nothing more than to spend a few hours assembling a 2,056 piece building that bares a nostalgic resemblance to the old store on the corner of the street they grew up on.
The LEGO Modular Buildings series came out in 2007, and has quickly turned into every investor's dream.  The first three sets that have been retired have all skyrocketed in value in a relatively short time.  This Evaluation Corner installment will take a look at the Grand Emporium, set 10211.
There is a lot of other great data about the Modular series that can be found in a previous Evaluation Corner article that was done on the Fire Brigade.  It does a good job of illustrating the rapid rise to power that the earlier Modular buildings have enjoyed.
Here is the official LEGO description of the Grand Emporium:
Welcome to the grand opening of the Grand Emporium!
The LEGO® Modular Buildings series continues with this spectacularly detailed 3-story department store, designed in a realistic scale with lots of special building techniques and rare pieces. On the street outside, citizens carry shopping bags, send letters at the mailbox, admire the window mannequins, then cool off at the ice cream stand while a busy window washer works above. Enter through the revolving doors to discover a ground-floor clothing department, complete with a cash register, fitting room, hats, jewelry, perfume, and even a selection of spare trousers. A brick-built escalator carries customers to the second floor housewares department with glassware and golden plates for special occasions, and then it’s up to the top floor for the toy department (complete with toy house and push-scooter) with an impressive chandelier above the open atrium. Up on the roof are a billboard and skylight!
Add this classic department store to your LEGO Modular Buildings collection Grand Emporium features many authentic details Set includes 7 minifigures Measures 15" (38cm) high and 10" (25cm) wide The Grand Emporium is currently locked in a battle with the Fire Brigade as to which set will be next to retire.  Although the Fire Brigade has been around since September 2009 and is continuing its improbable three year production run, these sets are typically available for around two years.  The Grand Emporium just hit the two and a half year mark, and recently sold out on LEGO.com.  While it may end up ultimately being restocked, it always turns heads when something sells out from the original source.  There are an awful lot of Modular sets available right now, so it seems that one or even two sets should be going away by the end of 2012.  Fire Brigade and/or Grand Emporium are both great candidates to hit EOL status very soon.
This set is in a unique position in a sense that it may be in its final days of existence, but is still widely available to those who want to grab one before they're gone.  Another fact that is worth mentioning is that this is only the second corner building to come out.  What good is a street if there is never a corner to…round it out?  There will be more demand for it because people are going to need that corner building, but very likely won't want to pay the going rate for the Cafe Corner set.
I think that the Grand Emporium is destined for greatness, and that any serious LEGO investor would be very wise to pick one up in the next couple months.  It's very difficult to argue with the track record of the Modular buildings series.  This set should be a lock to at very least double your investment in a couple years.  From a personal standpoint, when I was first getting back in to LEGO, I had no interest in investing, but when I saw the Grand Emporium, I immediately wanted to build it.  I suspect that a lot of other people are going to experience the same feeling when they first lay eyes on it.  So whether it is for a collector, or a builder who missed the boat on this set, the price tag to obtain one is only going to go up.
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As a LEGO investor and collector, there are many places where you can buy new LEGO sets.  In the United States, large retailers like Amazon.com, Walmart, Target and Toys R Us sell massive amounts of new LEGO sets.  Great Britain has similar large retailers like Argos, Myer and Tesco.  Of course EBAY is a worldwide option for new and used LEGO sets.  That leads us to The LEGO Group and its Shop At Home(S@H) online site and brick and mortar stores.  The LEGO retail sites make up the backbone of their entire business model and is the one place that you can buy all the new LEGO sets.  But a question arises, why would a LEGO investor and collector buy directly from LEGO when they can get the same LEGO set cheaper from another large toy retailer?  One reason...the LEGO VIP Program.  Let's take a look.
 

I would like to go into a short discussion about the benefits, and how best to use the LEGO VIP program.  First off, as with any purchase, you should do your research and determine what is the best deal for you.  There are times when it would be better to buy something at Walmart or another large retailer for 40% off, than buying from LEGO just to get the VIP points.  But there are advantages to the VIP program that you cannot get anywhere else.  Opportunities may arise when you can maximize your points and choose to buy from LEGO directly, instead of other retailers.
 
 
  In summary, the LEGO VIP program allows you to earn points for each dollar you spend either at a LEGO store or using LEGO Shop at Home.  You earn 1 VIP point for every dollar you spend.  For your information, this article is focused on US purchases, because of my experiences with LEGO and the program.  For every 100 VIP points you accumulate, you will earn a $5 VIP Reward towards a purchase of LEGO items.  What that means is that, if you buy a Haunted House from LEGO Shop at Home (LSAH) for $179, you earn 179 VIP Points.  This earns you one $5 VIP Reward and 79 points towards your next reward.  Now, you may use that $5 VIP Reward on your next purchase, or you can save it up and accumulate more rewards dollars.  In its basic form you are talking about a 5% discount to your LEGO purchases.  Not bad, but probably not enough to really get you to purchase from LEGO directly unless you had to.  This brings us to some of the other nuances of LEGO VIP program.  The VIP program also gives you access to exclusive sets and deals.  When you combine those sales and deals that is where you really start to maximize your LEGO VIP benefits.  Signing up for the VIP program also gives you access to the VIP emails.  I like these emails because they highlight upcoming deals or new sets that are coming out.
 
 
  Just as there are certain items that you can only purchase from LEGO, LEGO “exclusive” items, there are also VIP “exclusive” items.  If you are going to want to buy your Haunted House, then you have to buy it from LEGO as an exclusive, why not collect your VIP points for those purchases.  In addition, LEGO VIP members have access to purchase items that non-VIP members do not; for example, the 10230 Mini Modulars set.  Clearly purchasing this set is a personal decision, but you must be a VIP member to get it.  Also, VIP members have access to certain items early.  This year the 10229 Winter Village Cottage was available two weeks early to VIP members.  This could allow you to pick up a few sets early and sell them to the eager buyers.  Potentially picking up some profits. I personally cannot bear to part from my sets, so that is not a benefit to me.
 
 
  Now we have talked about the basic program and exclusive purchases where you would want or have to use the program.  Let’s talk about how to maximize your VIP point accumulation.  If you want to really get the most VIP points from your purchase, then you want to buy items when they earn the 50 VIP “bonus” points or better yet “double” points!  Double points and bonus points can be earned a couple of ways.  Every month LEGO has deals for VIP members where sets are listed as bonus points where you earn an additional 50 VIP points for the purchase.  You can find these deals by looking at your LEGO VIP account and looking for Promotions.  As a bonus VIP point example, if set 6868 Hulk’s Helicarrier Breakout is earning 50 bonus points, then, when you purchase the set for $49, you earn 99 VIP points instead of 49.  This is a bigger advantage on some sets than others clearly, but it can add up.  When you start getting double points, things really start to add up.  That Haunted House we were talking about earlier, if you are getting double points for your purchase, it is worth 358 VIP points.  That means $15 in VIP rewards.  OK, I understand that we are still just looking at 10% off, but the article is about how to maximize your VIP points, not to convince you to pass up the 40% off sale at Walmart.  Double points are even better for earning VIP rewards.  To earn double points LEGO has different monthly deals that you can take advantage of, they also give double points for all collection purchases, and certain times of the year they offer double points on all purchases.  I try to strategically make my purchases from LEGO to take advantage of these offers.  I used the double points on all sets this summer when I picked up my Monster Fighter and The Lord of the Rings (LOTR) collections.  An example of a collection is the LOTR collection that contains all seven of the sets out at the time.  The way LEGO grouped the collection gave you the Shelob Attacks set free, and it earns you 705 VIP points.  Now you are talking a $20 set free and $35 in VIP rewards.

 
You might think at this point that we have discussed all the ways to maximize your purchases, but there is actually one more consideration.  LEGO also likes to splash in free shipping here and there for purchases over $75.  I think they are very strategic about this.  For instance, when they release a number of new sets, they sometimes have a double points promotion, but not free shipping.  All the eager buyers bought their stuff early. If you are patient you may see a free shipping offer start in the middle of the month.  Double points and free shipping is the way to go if you can get it from LEGO.  In the chart below I have tried to provide an example of the graduated benefits of a purchase of the Haunted House.  Clearly highlighting the sweet spot of double points and free shipping.  
 
CaseSet CostShippingTotal CostVIP PointsRewardsBase Case$179.00$15.00$194.00179$5 plus 79 Points50 Bonus Point Case$179.00$15.00$194.00229$10 plus 29 PointsDouble Points$179.00$15.00$194.00358$15 plus 58 pointsDouble Points & Free Shipping$179.00$0.00$179.00358$15 plus 58 points 
 
  I hope this helps with your understanding of the LEGO VIP program and how to maximize your rewards.  One final way to maximize the VIP points is to look at the LEGO Sales and Deals and combine them with some VIP points and free shipping options.  Some great specials can be found at times, so it pays to check daily.  I personally like to save up my VIP rewards and get those sets that are more expensive.  That is who I got my first Super Star Destroyer with just VIP Rewards and more recently my Death Star for $100 and VIP rewards.  It is almost like getting free sets to me.  How much do I have to sell the Super Star Destroyer for to make a profit?  Not much.  
 
You called in sick to work, hang out in the room closest to the front door, you turn down the volume on the TV. What are you waiting for? You are waiting for that package to arrive one of the three big carriers, USPS(United States Postal Service), UPS(United Parcel Service) or FEDEX(Federal Express). What is in that package? The LEGO set that you ordered a few days ago. You have tracked it online at least 50 times since you placed the order so you know where it came from, where it has been and more or less when it will arrive. KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK!!! The moment you have been waiting for, it is finally here! You scribble your name on the little hand held scanner handed to you by the carrier and slam the door in his/her face because you are in a hurry to rip open the box to unveil your newest treasure. Your happiness quickly becomes sadness. In your best Darth Vader Episode III voice you yell Noooooooooooooooooo! Your LEGO Box that was inside looks like it has been kicked around more times than a soccer ball during the World Cup. If you have been in the LEGO game for more than a few minutes, this has happened to you, if it hasn’t I am here to bet my entire collection that it will eventually. This is especially traumatic when you demand your LEGO box in pristine condition. These people(me) are usually new to LEGO investing and I am told that the need for a pristine box will eventually subside. Here are some tips to increase your chances of receiving your set in acceptable condition.
First, let’s start with the carriers themselves. I understand that you are at the mercy of the retailer as you cannot choose the carrier, it is chosen by the retailer. The two most commonly used are UPS and USPS. Unfortunately, the best carrier in my opinion is FED EX, and it is the carrier least often used by the major online retailers. There seems to be some debate whether the LEGO box is damaged prior to being shipped or damaged while in transit. Sometimes there are clues as to where it happened, but nothing concrete. In my opinion, most of the time the damage happens during transit, I have no evidence, just my gut feeling.
The major online retailers overall do an OK job at packing the sets. I have had sets ranging from arriving in the brown outer box from the LEGO factory, to a set arriving in a box 6 times bigger than the actual set with absolutely no packing materials inside. Here is a list of the 4 major LEGO retailers and tips. Keep in mind that these are suggestions.
Amazon: Sign up for Amazon Prime, the main advantage is that you get free two-day shipping on all items you order, the less time it takes from warehouse to your house, is less time it is bouncing around in the back of a carrier's truck. Prime does cost an annual fee, around 100 bucks, but if you order a lot from Amazon, it will pay for itself in no time. In fact, many times, you will receive the item in one day if ordered early in the morning. Only buy from Amazon direct. If your item is damaged when it arrives, they will work with you very diligently, they pay for return shipping and will usually send you out a new item before you even send the damaged one back. Dealing with private sellers can be a hassle sometimes and there is always the chance of getting scammed in some way or another. Amazon does guarantee every purchase, even those from third-party sellers, but sometimes it takes a bit longer to work out an exchange/refund.
Toys R Us: Despite their markup, Toys R Us has always been a popular choice for LEGO sets, mainly because of their great selection and also because of the promotions they run on a regular basis, Buy 2 Get 1 Free, Buy One Get One 40%/50% off, free shipping, etc... All sets seem to be packed differently so it is hard to tell how they will arrive, but I've had good success on most occasions with Toys R Us. The best bet(not a popular one) would be to choose expedited or next day delivery usually which comes by FEDEX. It will take money from the overall profit of your set, but if you choose the right ones, it shouldn’t hurt you too bad. Of course, there is always the option of actually picking the LEGO set up at local Toys R Us location, but not all LEGO sets are available in the local stores, so that might not be an viable alternative.
S@H(LEGO SHOP AT HOME): This is the store on the LEGO website that is usually the best bet when it comes to condition of the box. They do a good job overall and seem to take more pride in handling and shipping that other retailers. They usually don't over pack LEGO sets and many times ship boxes individually in large, pre-fit shipping boxes. Larger sets like the 10179 Millennium Falcon and 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer came this way. This is not shipping related, but make sure you sign up for the VIP program if you chose to buy your LEGO sets from S@H, because you get 5% back to be used on later purchases. It is free to do so and it pretty much equals the cost of shipping, if free shipping is not available at the time.
eBay: While not considered a primary retailer like Amazon or S@H, I felt I should include them because eBay is where you can find great deals and also where you can get majorly scammed if you aren’t careful. This is where you get all those LEGO sets that have hit EOL(End of Line...or in layman's terms, retired) and you just never got around to getting it while it was on store shelves. There are a variety of sellers on eBay, from large primary retailers like Toys R Us to small Mom and Pop sellers, selling one or two items at a time. You see the best and worst of people on eBay, so be very careful when buying sets on eBay. Always look at the sellers feedback, I spend hours looking on eBay for steals on LEGO sets, a lot of that time is looking at seller's feedback. Look for the top-rated sellers, getting this distinction from eBay does not come easy, a seller has to make hundreds to thousands of high-rated transactions, including outstanding shipping ratings before they can be included in this group. Always ask for more pictures of the item if you are unsure or cannot tell the condition of the box from the pictures provided. Always email seller prior to purchasing and explain that you are a collector/investor and the condition of the box is a factor. You can ask for expedited shipping and usually the seller will not have a problem in accommodating your request because you will be the one paying for the shipping. The best way I have found to get a set in the condition you want it is to buy from a collector who shares the same love for LEGO that you do.
Speaking of eBay sellers and in some cases, sellers from the popular LEGO parts site, Bricklink.com, there is one request that you should make of them when buying any MISB LEGO set...”Please place the LEGO box in an outer shipping box!” You don't know how many times I have received MISB LEGO sets wrapped only in brown shipping paper. The sets are wrapped carefully and neatly in brown, thin paper in most cases, but get easily crushed by Postal workers(USPS is the main shipper for eBay items). The inexperienced seller assumes the LEGO box will be fine with just the brown paper protection, but 99% of the time, the LEGO box arrives damaged when shipped in this way. Tell the sellers that you are a collector and box quality is important and to please ship the LEGO box within a proper-sized outer shipping box. Most sellers will do this with few issues.
Speaking of retailer shipping, this leads us to a few tips about shipping LEGO sets from a seller's point of view(eBay and Bricklink sellers):
As stated earlier, use a properly sized outer shipping box to ship every LEGO set. The USPS Flat Rate Boxes are excellent choices for small boxes. ULINE is another choice for larger boxes. I like to reuse old Amazon or LEGO shipping boxes to ship a LEGO box. Wrap the LEGO box in bubble wrap, then use shipping peanuts or newspaper to pack the LEGO set within the shipping box. Newspaper seems to work better IMO and is a lot cleaner. Take pictures of the LEGO set before packaging, within the box and after when the box is sealed. This helps protect you from unscrupulous buyers and careless shippers. Use the proper type of shipping tape on the outer box and don't be cheap about it. Include a receipt within the box, notifying the buyer who sent the LEGO set and to thank them for their purchase. This is a nice touch and helps improve communication and feedback. I like to use the USPS as a shipping company. They offer the best deals. The Flat Rate Boxes are a fantastic value. In closing I would like to say that there are many other places to purchase LEGO sets online and some of the tips I gave can be applied, as they are not only for the stores I mentioned. Most seasoned veterans in the game will find most of this article ‘’common knowledge.” This article was meant for LEGO investment novices to use a reference point when searching for their potential purchases. Personally, I demand my boxes(for now) in pristine condition. I only purchase in store, which allows me to hand pick the box I want and guarantee me the perfect box for my investment. There are issues with buying in store though. Number one, I cannot buy an older retired LEGO set in a Walmart or Toys R Us. Also, I might miss out on some fantastic on-line sales. Finally, I miss out on not paying state sales tax(in the US) if the LEGO set is bought from a retailer from another state. Do I pay retail all the time? Yes, unless there is a sale in a retail brick and mortar store. Do I miss all the big on-line sales? Yes. I am OK with that though because I know that the sets I do choose will make me money and I believe that a MISB LEGO set is worth more than a damaged LEGO set that was discounted. Bottom line is that getting a set shipped to my house is a crap shoot……and I don’t play craps.
Editor's Note: Here is another great article written by one of our members, stephen_rockefeller. Stephen also received 500 BrickPoints for having this article published on the site. Thanks for writing a great article that I am sure is beneficial knowledge to many of our members! -Jeff
Guest

LEGO vs. Mega Bloks and Other Clones

By Guest in Brickvesting

You are browsing in the construction toys aisle of your local retail or toy store. You carefully look at the three main choices of building blocks: LEGO, Mega Bloks and KRE-O. You can’t decide which one to buy for your children –they all look the same on their boxes. This article outlines the advantages & disadvantages found in both LEGO products and inexpensive alternatives so that you can choose what’s best for you.
At the moment there are many alternatives to LEGO bricks on the market, the two main ones being Mega Bloks and KRE-O.
Mega Bloks, a Canadian company, was called “Ritvik Toys” when it started in 1967 and later changed its name to Mega Bloks in 2002. It quickly became one of the main players in the building blocks industry. Mega Bloks, over the years, have created everything from Smurfs to dragons in their products. Mega Brands (includes Mega Bloks, Mega Puzzles, Board Dudes and Rose Art) currently has over 1000 employees. There are four different types of Mega Bloks’ bricks:
Maxi size, introduced in 1985, is intended for very young children. The blocks feature slightly rounded corners and edges and have tall rounded studs. Mini size, introduced in 1989, is designed for toddlers and preschoolers. The bricks, like Maxi size, have slightly rounded edges and corners. Mini size bricks are the same size as LEGO DUPLO bricks. Micro size, introduced in 1991, has sharp edges and corners and is for experienced builders. This size is the same size as ordinary LEGO bricks. Nano building system, introduced in 2004, is the smallest of all of the bricks that Mega Bloks have made and is not compatible with any other type of plastic bricks. The LEGO Group has filed many lawsuits against Mega Bloks for the use of “their” studs and tubes construction system. LEGO believes that this is a violation of its trademarks, but most of their lawsuits have been unsuccessful.
Possibly after seeing the success of LEGO's girl orientated theme, Friends, Mega Bloks have decided to launch new “Barbie” and “Hot Wheels” (both by Mattel) themed sets next year (2013).

KRE-O is manufactured by Oxford, a Korean company, and marketed by toys and board games company Hasbro. KRE-O, unlike Mega Bloks, is relatively new to the industry and includes sets based on the recently released films Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Battleship, which were both based on Hasbro’s toys. KRE-O, which means “I create” in Latin, keeps growing in popularity ever since it launched in June 2011. KRE-O’s human figures are called Kreons, and look for the most part like LEGO minifigures. A third line of sets have been confirmed and will be based on the 2009 revival of Star Trek and a new 2013 sequel are to be released in the future.
Although brands such as Mega Bloks and KRE-O are seen as alternatives or copies, people still buy them simply because of the fact that they are the cheaper than good quality LEGO bricks. Plus, if a child has collected a lot of LEGO sets, then the kid’s parents buy him Mega Bloks sets, the bricks from the clone sets will still be compatible with official LEGO bricks. Many young children wouldn’t know the difference between LEGO and clones, so parents usually buy Mega Bloks and other copies, that look like LEGO, but are actually worth much less money.
Parents buy clones for their children because they are inexpensive, but there are also many disadvantages of buying non-LEGO building blocks/bricks. Many of the bricks that are included in Mega Bloks or KRE-O sets are of poor quality and do not go together well. Some builders combine clone bricks with LEGO bricks in their models; however, their creations are usually mismatched with dull coloured and loosely connected Mega Bloks and LEGO bricks. Mega Bloks is also known for having a substandard website (compared with LEGO.com) and limited support for builders.

Official LEGO products, on the other hand, are of great quality and are very durable. The LEGO Group has a team of designers that invent well-designed sets that children will eventually play with. One of the advantages of buying LEGO sets is that they don’t usually devalue in price, as there are many people willing to buy second-hand LEGO on auction websites such as eBay, etc. Another good thing about LEGO is that they have the rights to many exciting themes (such as Star Wars, Harry Potter, DC & Marvel Super Heroes, etc.), which have produce rare bricks and sets. LEGO also have an awesome website (LEGO.com) that boasts downloadable building instructions, games, video, an online shop, and many more exciting things. There are also lots of devoted LEGO fans, who connect with each other through the internet in forums and fan groups. Mega Bloks, unlike LEGO, has little fans and is practically ignored by LEGO enthusiasts.
Another great advantage of buying the different kinds of LEGO bricks (Quatro, DUPLO, Normal Bricks, TECHNIC, etc.) is that they all click into each other. DUPLO bricks slot nicely into Quatro bricks, Normal Bricks click on underneath DUPLO bricks and so on.
There are also two things that LEGO has, but Mega Bloks doesn’t. These two things are the TECHNIC building system and Mindstorms. TECHNIC uses beams and pins (instead of bricks) to build models. Some TECHNIC sets even come with electronic motors, lights and remote controls. These electronics are part of a sub-theme called “Power Functions” and they make TECHNIC vehicles & machines run. One other thing that Mega Bloks and KRE-O don’t have is a robotics system. The LEGO Group has created Mindstorms, a theme in which builders create a model out of LEGO TECHNIC elements then add the Mindstorms NXT brick (the robot’s “control centre”), three motors, and four sensors (which can provide information about obstructions, different colours, etc.). This makes a fully-fledged robot that can be programmed by using the included software on a computer. You can even make it move in the direction you want using an app on your Bluetooth-enabled smartphone.
The main drawback with LEGO products is the cost. The LEGO Group prides itself on having strict product control, which generates exceptional products. With good quality comes higher prices, and that’s generally why numerous parents go for the less expensive option(s) when it comes to construction bricks/blocks for their kids. But as the old adage goes, you get what you pay for. It doesn't take long for children to get frustrated with inferior quality bricks from KRE-O or Mega Bloks and toss them in the trash.
If you are planning on buying some construction toys for your children, my recommendation is to find out (if you haven’t already) what suits your child and buy that product. If you don’t know what is best for your kids, then I suggest going with good quality LEGO –even though it may cost more, it’ll last longer and is (in my opinion) better overall. Also, from the standpoint of collecting and investing, the LEGO brick is far and away the brick to pick. LEGO investing has exploded over the past several years has become the toy of choice for not only children, but adult collectors and investors as well. All in all, LEGO is the way to go in my opinion.
What kind of building toy do you and your children prefer? What type do you have the most of in your home? Share your opinion in the comments below.
This is a guest post by Nathan (a.k.a. Yodaman5556), who is a blogger, a Star Wars and LOTR fan, KFOL (kid fan of LEGO) and all-round LEGO fanatic. He enjoys spending afternoons experimenting (and building) with LEGO bricks. He blogs about LEGO news, information and rumours on his website, BrickExtra.

We Thank Nathan for taking the time to write this excellent article and have also awarded him 500 BrickPoints! Please check out his website BrickExtra, he does a great job covering LEGO.
I recently wrote an article, LEGO Bubble...Fact or Fiction, in which I compared the recent Baseball Card collectible's market bubble and its subsequent bursting, to a potential LEGO investment bubble. The main point of the article was to show similarities between two comparable collectibles' markets and to question whether or not the LEGO collectible's market would crash and burn like the Baseball Card collectible's market did several years ago. While doing research for the article, I came across another very similar collectible's market that might be even more closely related to LEGO than the Baseball Card market is...the Barbie Doll collectible's market. Take a look at a very interesting article, written by Nancy Colasurdo of CNBC.com, about the Barbie Doll collectible's market and see if you can see some very clear similarities between the two...
There are some very interesting similarities pointed out by the article between the LEGO and Barbie Doll collectible's market. The first one is the age of the two companies. The LEGO brick, as we know it currently, was launched in 1958, while the first Barbie Doll was produced in 1959. Another similarity of both markets is the importance of the box that the toys were sold in from the factory. In both cases, LEGO and Barbie Doll collectors and investors value the items that are still new and sealed in the original packaging. Known as Never Removed From Box (NRFB) in the world of Barbie Doll collecting and Mint In Sealed Box(MISB) in the LEGO world of investing, these two terms are one in the same. Regardless of whatever you would like to call them, it is the desired condition of the toy when one is collecting them for the purpose of investment. As with LEGO sets that have been opened, built and displayed and are called “used,” Barbie Doll has a similar classification called “de-boxed,” in which the Barbie Doll is removed from the packaging and displayed. By opening and displaying both LEGO sets and Barbie Dolls, the value of the collectible item decreases substantially.
As any LEGO collector or investor can see, the values of some Barbie Dolls far exceed even the most expensive LEGO set. The 10179 UCS Millennium Falcon has sold for over $4000 on several occasions, yet that pales in comparison to vintage Barbie Dolls selling for $27,000 or more. Now, there have been large LEGO MOCs(My Own Creation) that sold for more than $30,000 on EBAY, but the conventional store sold LEGO sets have maxed out under $5000. That being said, both markets are still remarkably similar. Most Barbie Dolls on EBAY sell for less than $100, very similar to LEGO sets. In fact, both LEGO and Barbie Dolls have similar sales numbers on EBAY in relation to total auctions on a daily basis...around 200,000 listings at any given time. They are both iconic toys and have been around over 50 years and have shown excellent growth in the toy industry and interest from child and adult fans alike.
So what's the point of this whole article and how does it really relate to LEGO collecting and investing? Well, for one thing, I wanted to point out that there were toy collectible items that were closely related to LEGO sets and bricks that weren't Baseball Cards and haven't suffered from a “speculative bubble” that burst. The Barbie Doll collectible's market is alive and strong and items can sell for top dollar, in the tens of thousands of dollars on occasion. The Barbie Doll collectible's market, like the LEGO market, deals with new and used items and box condition is of paramount importance to the value of the items being sold and there are hundreds of thousands of EBAY listings on any given day of Barbie Doll and LEGO items. These two markets have run a parallel course over the past 50 years to become two of the most known and most popular toy lines ever created. In my research for this article, I did not find any reputable or coherent mention of a Barbie Doll investment bubble and that is quite amazing considering the selling price of some of the more expensive, rare and vintage Barbie Dolls can be tens of thousands of dollars. As a strong believer in the LEGO brand and LEGO investment, I would like to think that success in a similar toy collectible's market like Barbie Dolls will translate into continued growth and success of the LEGO product line in both the primary and secondary LEGO markets and that it is possible for continued positive growth without the “speculative bubble” hanging over every LEGO investor's head.
On a final note, I would like to point out that there is a definite influence of Barbie Dolls in the new Friends LEGO theme. For years, the LEGO brick was considered a toy that was geared towards young boys and men, but the Friends theme was developed to draw interest from young girls and women, with Barbie-like minifigures, pastel-colored LEGO bricks and sets that reminds Barbie fans of old Barbie Doll Dreamhouses and convertible Barbie cars. This Barbie Doll influence on LEGO sets has been a profit windfall for The LEGO Group, with sales of the Friends theme far “exceeding” expectations and have sold twice as many Friends sets than expected(LEGO PRESS RELEASE) over the first half of 2012. This success looks to continue, with the Friends sets being sold at full MSRP and getting hard to find in various toy departments.
All in all, I found the article about Barbie Doll investing to be quite enlightening and very relative to the current LEGO investing and collecting market. The Barbie Doll and LEGO collectible's markets are similar in many ways and have been driving forces in the toy industry for over 50 years. I see both markets continuing on a positive growth path and while there are no guarantees in the investment world, investing in the correct Barbie Doll or LEGO set can be a very profitable endeavor...
LEGO PRESS RELEASE: http://aboutus.lego.com/en-us/news-room/2012/august/half-year-result_2012/
From the most recent LEGO Press Release:
"LEGO Ninjago, launched in 2011, maintained its success in all markets in 2012, with the ninja theme selling significantly better than expected."
This is a statement that confounds many adult LEGO collectors and investors. Ninjas? Dragons? Snakes? Spinners? Trading Cards? What is this, Dungeons and Dragons??? Well, whatever you want to call it, the LEGO Ninjago theme is taking the LEGO world by storm. The Ninjago theme, along with another unconventional LEGO theme, the Friends theme, are producing sales that far exceed The LEGO Group's expectations. Well, that is great news for The LEGO Group, but what does that mean for the average LEGO collector and investor? Let's take a look at the Ninjago theme.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Ninjago theme, it is a theme based on Ninja warriors. The theme has an Asian flavor, with the Ninjago buildings and structures replicating old Japanese temples and shrines. There is a touch of fantasy mixed in, with dragons and large serpents, four armed characters and snake men minifigures. Also thrown into the mix, is a modern twist, with jet airplanes and helicopters, trucks and motorcycles. You can see why children would be interested in this theme. What makes it even more interesting to kids is activity and playability level of these sets. The LEGO designers were very intuitive incorporating a game element to this theme. The basic models use conventional LEGO pieces and building techniques, unlike Bionicle, Hero Factory and Technic themes, which use special pieces and methods of building, but there are special pieces called 'spinners' added to several sets. These spinners enable LEGO fans to battle one another in LEGO brick 'arenas.' Various minifigures and weapon combinations can be used to battle friends and family.
Not only do some Ninjago sets have action-packed spinner pieces, these same sets offer the LEGO fans 'Battle Cards.' Some people call them 'trading' or 'playing' cards, but whatever you call them, the Ninjago Spinner sets offer another gaming-like option from a LEGO set. The Battle Cards are utilized in coordination with the spinners and enable the players to employ special weapons when their minifigures are pitted against other minifigure/spinner combos. The Battle Cards are reminiscent of the old Yu-Gi-Oh or Dungeons and Dragons cards in my opinion and everybody knows how popular those cards were. They even add an element of collecting to the Spinner sets in that children will want to collect all the cards in addition to the sets and minifigures. Along with the Spinner sets, the Ninjago theme also consists of more traditional LEGO building sets. As stated earlier, they are based on ninja themes, with a touch of fantasy and modern ideas mixed together. For our purposes here, we will break down the Ninjago theme into three major categories: Ninjago Spinners, Structures/Buildings and Creatures/Vehicles. Let's take a look at the Ninjago Spinners first...
The basic Ninjago Spinner set consists of around 20-25 pieces, which include one minifigure, a spinner, several weapons and some Battle Cards. All the Spinners, with the exception of the Spinjitzu Starter set(2257/$19.99), listed at $9.99(US). These Ninjago characters are based on a TV show called The Masters of Spinjitzu, which can be found on the LEGO TV channel. It is a very entertaining show and basically looks like a LEGO video game. But what is nice about the TV show is that it promotes the LEGO brand among the young and creates new LEGO collectors on a daily basis. As with the entire Ninjago theme, the Spinners were launched back in 2011. That's right. 2011. If you take a look at the below chart, you will see some extraordinary returns for a theme that is so new:
 
NINJAGO SPINNERSSet NameSet #Year ReleasedPiecesMSRP ($)Current Value($)% Return Last MonthCAGR(%)*:Kai21112011199.9918.280.27%82.98%Cole21122011199.9916.922.73%69.37%Zane21132011199.9916.390.99%64.06%Chopov21142011209.999.774.49%-2.2%Bonezai21152011219.997.78-4.07%-22.12%Krazi21162011229.999.93-18.41%-0.6%Cole DX21702011219.9911.8-4.68%18.12%Zane DX21712011229.9914.916.96%49.25%Nya21722011219.9922.661.43%126.83%Nuckal21732011269.9911.681.48%16.92%Kruncha21742011249.997.062.62%-29.33%Wyplash21752011239.996.6-2.37%-33.93%Sensei Wu22552011209.9914.59-8.87%46.05%Lord Garmadon22562011239.9910.36.08%3.1%Spinjitzu Starter Set225720115719.9923.2536.93%16.31%AVERAGE26.98% 
* Average LEGO set CAGR: 10.64%
There are some Spinners that show the typical LEGO “new set” decrease in value from discounting from primary retailers, yet the majority are showing very positive returns for two years or less on the market, a few have been around a year or less. Kai(2111), Cole(2112) and Zane(2113) all have CAGRs over 60%. The CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, can be thought of as the growth rate statistic that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period. It simplifies years of different growth percentages and gives you a single number that represents compounded growth percentage of an investment, in this case, a LEGO set. The typical LEGO set yields about 10.64%, so at 60%+ in less than two years' time, that is exceptional. Even more exceptional is the return of Spinner set 2172, Nya. This set appreciated 126% in less than two years. Wow. That's impressive. Overall, the Ninjago Spinners have yielded on average almost 27% in less than two years. The Spinners are indeed investment winners. But what about the non-Spinner Ninjago LEGO sets? Let's take a look...
 
 
There are more traditional Ninjago building sets. These sets include the buildings and structures of the theme. They all have an Asian flair and look like old shrines and temples. Some of these sets do contain a spinner or two, but the primary idea of these sets is that they are some sort of non-movable building. If you examine the chart below, you will see the smaller sets of the group that have gone EOL have the best returns so far:
NINJAGO STRUCTURES/BUILDINGSSet NameSet #Year ReleasedPiecesMSRP ($)Current Value($)% Return Last MonthCAGR(%)*:Mountain Shrine2254201116919.9931.73.19%58.58%Ninja Ambush22582011716.9915.33.31%118.88%Spinjitzu Dojo2504201137349.9951.895.51%3.8%Garmadon's Dark Fortress2505201151869.9997.830.76%39.78%Fire Temple250720111180119.99115.064.07%-4.11%Blacksmith Shop2508201118919.9923.54.49%17.56%Ninja Training Outpost25162011454.9913.65-2.85%173.55%Skeleton Bowling2519201137129.9925.940%-13.5%Ninja Battle Arena2520201146349.9932.08-0.47%-35.83%Venomari Shrine94402012866.9910.741.13%53.65%Spinner Battle Arena9456201241839.9948.71-2.11%21.81%Training Set9558201221919.9924.72-3.63%23.66%AVERAGE38.1%* Average LEGO set CAGR: 10.64%
Ninja Ambush(2258) and Ninja Training Outpost(2516) have appreciated 118% and 173% respectively. Sometimes the smaller sets do very well when they are relatively new, especially when they are already retired like these two sets. Another newer small set, the Venomari Shrine(9440) has appreciated well so far to a clip of 53%. As for the larger sets, Garmadon's Dark Fortress(2505) stands out with a ~40% return from retail. The Fire Temple(2507) is a set to watch in my opinion. It is the largest of all Ninjago sets and I believe it will explode in value when it is finally retired. Overall, the Ninjago structures and buildings appreciated over 38% from retail as a group so far. That is even better than the spinners, which, as we all know, are investment winners.
This leads us to our last classification of LEGO Ninjago sets and the most interesting in my opinion, the creatures and vehicles of the Ninjago theme. These sets are damn cool in my opinion. Dragons, snake trucks and helicopters, skull trucks, jet fighters, motorcycles, boats and mechanized monsters. Cool beans. Each one of these sets can do well after EOL, but four stand out in my opinion...the Dragon sets which include the Ice Dragon Attack(2260), Earth Dragon Defense(2509), Lightning Dragon Battle(2521) and Epic Dragon Battle(9450) sets. Take a quick glance at the chart below:
 
NINJAGO CREATURES & VEHICLESSet NameSet #Year ReleasedPiecesMSRP ($)Current Value($)% Return Last MonthCAGR(%)*:Skull Motorbike2259201115714.9925.082.45%67.31%Ice Dragon Attack2260201115819.9964.672.28%223.51%Turbo Shredder2263201122329.9934.70.75%15.71%Skull Truck2506201151559.9943.072.23%-28.2%Earth Dragon Defense2509201122534.9977.8310.49%122.43%Nuckal's ATV2518201117424.9921.329.06%-14.73%Lightning Dragon Batttle2521201164579.99142.550%78.21%Kai's Blade Cycle9441201218814.9922.59-2.38%50.7%Jay's Storm Fighter9442201224224.9925.040%0.2%Rattlecopter9443201232729.99420.24%40.05%Cole's Tread Assault9444201228639.9941.54-6.67%3.88%Fangpyre'sTruck Ambush9445201245249.9939.04-12.62%-21.9%Destiny's Bounty9446201268079.9971.972.43%-10.03%Lasha's Bite Cycle9447201225024.9934.72-2.83%38.94%Samurai Mech9448201245239.9950.29-4.86%25.76%Ultra Sonic Raider9449201262279.9991.89-21.89%14.88%Epic Dragon Battle94502012915119.99139.2-11.78%16.01%Fangpyre Mech9455201225524.9943.621.02%74.75%Fangpyre Wrecking Ball9457201241549.9963.860.33%27.75%AVERAGE
 
38.17%  * Average LEGO set CAGR: 10.64%
With the exception of the newest set, Epic Dragon Battle(9450), the remaining dragon Ninjago sets have gone EOL. The Lightning Dragon Battle(2521) has appreciated over 78% in less than two years and the Earth Dragon Defense(2509) has appreciated over 122%. The Ice Dragon Attack(2260) has appreciated a whopping 223% in less than two years. That is some of the best gains I have ever seen when discussing a LEGO set...or any investment for that matter. Although these three dragon Ninjago sets have gone EOL, they have gone EOL very recently and there is still room to grow in my opinion. What is even better news is that the best of the dragon bunch, the Epic Dragon Battle(9450) is still available from primary sources for $119.99 and figures to be discounted at some point before it gets retired. This set is close to 1000 pieces and has some very unique minifigures and models. I really like the potential for that set. As for the other sets in this category, Destiny's Bounty(9446), the Rattlecopter(9443), the Ultra Sonic Raider(9450), both Mechs(9448/9455) and the Fangpyre Wrecking Ball(9497) all look very promising. Overall, as with the Ninjago structures and buildings, the Ninjago creatures and vehicles category appreciated over 38% from retail as a group so far. But the overall 38% appreciation was largely due to the Dragon sets, with only moderate increases from other sets in the category. This is not to say that these sets are poor investments. Quite the contrary. Most Ninjago sets are relatively new and still available through primary retail sources like LEGO, Amazon and Toys R' Us and some are being discounted or will be discounted, so their numbers are flat. Most of the sets I've mentioned as big gainers are recently retired sets, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that similar high returns will be seen with other Ninjago sets when they are retired.
In conclusion, I have to say that not only are the Ninjago Spinners “investment” winners, that all the Ninjago sets are potential winners. The Ninjago theme has been ignored by the adult LEGO collectors and investors, like myself, for too long...but no more. I am here to tell you that dragons and snake men make for big-time profits in the LEGO world of investment. It is OK to buy a Spinner set and look at another adult in the face. You can explain to them that it is an investment(Good luck with that...LOL). On a serious note, these sets are just very creative and cool and I can see why kids love them. These are the types of sets a future AFOL might buy, thinking back to their youth and wishing they could have bought an Epic Dragon Battle, but couldn't at the age of 10, but can at the age of 30. What is great for the LEGO collector and investor, is that these sets are still readily available and are going up in value at the same time. That is rarely seen in the LEGO investment world. Another very important point that should be addressed is the possible retirement of the entire Ninjago theme after the 2013 calender year. Rumors are circulating through the LEGO world of the Ninjago theme heading off into the sunset in a year or so. Whether that is true or not, it will make investing in these sets a very intriguing proposition. Why? Because if the theme remains as popular as it is currently, why would The LEGO Group discontinue it and if they do choose to discontinue the Ninjago theme, how will that affect the prices of Ninjago sets on the secondary market? Prices could explode from lack of sets and too many buyers, or they could head south because of the lack of new LEGO Ninjago sets and fans losing interest and moving on to the next hot LEGO theme. Whatever the future holds, the possible end of the Ninjago theme is a year or two away and will bring much riveting debate in the meantime, but for today's LEGO investment and collecting purposes, the Ninjago theme is a winner in my book and a must buy for any LEGO fan out there...
LEGO Press Release: http://aboutus.lego.com/en-us/news-room/2012/august/half-year-result_2012/
Definition of "Speculative Bubble":
A spike in asset values within a particular industry, commodity, or asset class. A speculative bubble is usually caused by exaggerated expectations of future growth, price appreciation, or other events that could cause an increase in asset values. This drives trading volumes higher, and as more investors rally around the heightened expectation, buyers outnumber sellers, pushing prices beyond what an objective analysis of intrinsic value would suggest.
The bubble is not completed until prices fall back down to normalized levels; this usually involves a period of steep decline in price during which most investors panic and sell out of their investments. (source: Investopedia.com)
There is a phrase used around the various LEGO forums that puts fear into the hearts of even the most staunch LEGO investors and collectors...bubble. As in “speculative” or “investment” bubble. The remarkable run up of prices of some retired LEGO sets has some investors thinking back to the days of the Cabbage Patch Dolls, Beanies Babies and Baseball Cards, and not in a good way. In each one of those cases, a type of toy collectible hit new heights in value and popularity, only to crash and burn a few years later and leave its investors with huge inventories of useless and worthless collectible toys. Is history destined to repeat itself again with the LEGO collectible's market crashing like the Baseball Card collectible's market did several years ago? Will the value of these high-priced LEGO sets and minifigures, with years of gains behind them, be wiped out in a couple of months, or few years at the most? Some very similar and scary comparisons can be made between the explosion of LEGO set values and some of the other collectible's markets that crashed, especially the Baseball Card collectible's market.
The Baseball Card collectible's market, unlike other flash-in-the-pan collectible's markets(Cabbage Patch dolls and Beanie Babies to name a few...), has been around a very long time(Baseball Cards have been around since the 1860s). Like LEGO sets, which have been around over 50 years themselves, Baseball Cards are an iconic collectible and childhood toy that are also collected heavily by adults. But are LEGO sets and their values bound to follow the same path that the Baseball Cards did, and if so, when will the “bubble” burst? Upon researching the topic of the collectible toy markets and the history of those markets, I found a very interesting article about the collectible Baseball Card market and its rise and fall. The article was written by Davis Jameison and was a brief synopsis of his book called Mint Condition: How Baseball Cards Became an American Obsession. I found the article to be quite interesting and eerily comparable in some ways to the current LEGO collectible's market. Let's take a look at the article and see if we can draw any useful comparisons to the modern day LEGO investing and collecting market:
 
...Very interesting article. I have read many forum posts over the years relating the Baseball Card bubble to the current LEGO situation. There are definitely some parallel points that should be acknowledged, yet there are some huge differences between both. Let's take a look at some of the similarities...
Both markets were originally designed for children and have had a large influx of adult investors get involved later in the lifespan of the collectible. Both markets are iconic and have been in existence for 50+ years. Both markets have thousands of different variations and new ones are released on a yearly basis. Both markets have price guides that keep track of current prices and trends. Both the LEGO new collectible and secondary market and the Baseball Card new collectible and secondary market remain two of the largest and active collectors' markets in the world today. If you take a look at the EBAY auction listings for instance, there are millions of EBAY auctions for Baseball Card items on any given day in the United States. LEGO auctions in the United States are in the hundreds of thousands on a daily basis, and probably equal to that in countries across Europe and the rest of the world. Both the LEGO and Baseball Card markets rank right up there with Stamp and Coin collecting markets, which are the largest collecting markets in the world. Those are the basic similarities I see between the LEGO and Baseball Card markets. They are quite substantial, yet the differences that follow outweigh the similarities in my opinion. Let's check them out...
While both markets have a wide range of age groups that participate in the collecting, the Baseball and Sports Memorabilia market, in general, is an adult driven business. The majority of LEGO collectors, fans, users or whatever you would like to call them...are children. By a vast majority in fact. Look at the most successful themes in the LEGO brand...Ninjago, Friends, City/Town. All are geared towards the younger crowd. While the Baseball card industry does sell a substantial amount of Baseball Cards to kids, the investing and larger portion of card sales is mainly by adults. LEGO sets are bought by all ages, but the majority of LEGO sets are still bought by children, even with the uptick in LEGO “investing” as of late. Kids don't invest. They collect LEGO sets and bricks to build bigger and better creations. Investing is the last thing on a kid's mind and it is this love of LEGO bricks that keeps the brand strong now and probably into the future as well. LEGO sets are played with and sold worldwide, in hundreds of countries. Baseball Cards are mainly an American phenomenon(Japan and a few Latin American countries notwithstanding). This point cannot be underestimated in importance. The love and interest in LEGO bricks in European countries is huge and helps build a strong base for the LEGO brand around the world. As the old saying goes, “The more the merrier,” and in this case, the more people buying and collecting LEGO sets, the better the secondary LEGO market will be after a set is retired. The LEGO Group does not release billions of sets every year like some of the Baseball Card companies did with cards and can at any time if they so choose. As a matter of fact, LEGO does a very good job of limiting sets(about 500 new releases a year) and keeping themes and ideas fresh. Lego retires sets on a frequent basis, while Baseball Card companies will release thousands of different cards yearly, with different versions for each player, watering down the market. Lego sets are just too expensive to produce and The LEGO Group doesn't want warehouses full of unsold inventory. Businesses as a whole today are much more aware of the dangers of excessive inventory and overproducing millions, or even billions, of sets(or cards with respect to the Baseball Card industry) is highly unlikely. LEGO sets are historically expensive. I have been playing with and collecting LEGO bricks for 35+ years and they have always been pricey. But that is a good thing if you are a collector/investor from a resell standpoint. There are some serious fans that buy LEGO sets and are willing to pay top dollar for quality, MISB sets, new or retired. There is value to a LEGO set. They are one of the highest quality toys you can buy. Baseball cards can be worth pennies, even new. There might be expensive old and rare Baseball cards, but the vast majority will never be worth anything more than pocket change. Heck, LEGO bricks are made of ABS(acrylonitrile butadiene styrene), which is a petroleum derivative, so it has to cost more to produce LEGO bricks over some small pieces of paper. LOL. LEGO was voted “Toy of the Century” by the Toy Retailers Association. Baseball cards are not a “toy.” Therein lies the main difference in my opinion. LEGO bricks are TOYS that can be collected. Baseball cards are pieces of cardboard that can be collected. Not to knock Baseball cards...I'm a huge NY Yankee fan and collected cards as a child, it's just that LEGO bricks have a special aura about them and are wanted and admired by all walks of life, by people from around the world. They are toys that can be used over and over and over again and enable its fans to explore their creative side. There is really no substitute for a toy such as LEGO. There are other lesser competitors, but the LEGO building brick is far superior and is loved more than ever. The LEGO Group has seen profits grow for 7 straight years, with no downturn in sight. Baseball cards on the other hand just don't have the broad support from children around the world like LEGO sets still do. Baseball Cards had their day in the sun, when Major League Baseball was the main sports draw in the nation, but that run is over. NFL Football has replaced MLB Baseball as the most popular sport in the United States and cards grew less important. It's adults that are keeping the Baseball Card business afloat, buying Mickey Mantle cards, not kids buying Derek Jeter cards. Technology has also put a dent in old hobbies like card collecting. Video games and smart phones are the new play toys for a lot of kids. But there is still a craving for people to utilize their imaginations and build something from LEGO bricks. The child LEGO collectors of today are the adult LEGO investors of tomorrow. It is this cycle that keeps The LEGO Group profitable, even in terrible economic times, and helps keep the values of LEGO sets at high levels. The reader can see why some people linked the LEGO collectible's market with the Baseball Card collectible market. These same people also worried that the LEGO market is heading towards an “investment bubble,” in the same manner as the Baseball Card collectible's market crashed several years back. While there might be some strong similarities between the two markets from a logistics point of view, from a product point of view, they are quite different animals. Baseball cards are just that, cardboard cards. There is no real “play” value to them. A collector's value, for sure, but a child won't do anything really creative with them...a house of cards, maybe? Well, we all know what children and adults can do with LEGO bricks and the “play” value of them. The play value is what makes LEGO sets valuable and keeps children buying LEGO sets. This inherent play value has also made LEGO the third largest toy manufacturer in the United States. The LEGO collectible's market is a minor piece of the entire LEGO sales pie. The majority of LEGO sets are bought by and for children, not by and for adult investors, like the Baseball Card market was and still is. Adult investors on the various LEGO forums like to believe they drive LEGO sales. They do not. Maybe a small percentage of the retired and rare sets on EBAY or Bricklink are influenced price wise by these investors, collectors and resellers, but the vast majority of new and recently retired LEGO sets prices will not be affected by speculation in the secondary LEGO market in my opinion. New LEGO set prices will continue to remain high(as they always have been), regardless of the secondary market and some minor speculation. Several thousand or even tens of thousands of amateur LEGO investors will not outweigh millions of children buying sets for non-investment reasons.
The Baseball Card market imploded because the main buyer of Baseball Cards became adults looking to invest. The Baseball Card Manufacturers saw this shift in buyer types and proceeded to produce and sell billions of cards, flooding the market with worthless pieces of cardboard. Baseball Card sellers and collectors hoarded cases of cards, not realizing that the manufacturers were overproducing the product. POP...went the bubble. As I stated earlier, I really doubt that LEGO will ramp up set production so much that the market becomes flooded and worthless. They are better business operators than that. LEGO is very protective of its brand and does an excellent job with quality and keeping set values at a premium level. They retire sets on a regular basis and this keeps ideas and themes fresh and the secondary market ripe with new retired sets that might appreciate. If you notice, LEGO goes out of stock on various sets quite frequently on their Shop @ Home site and if they were the type of company to overproduce a product, you would never see that kind of message. They produce as needed. Some themes and sets are retired after one year due to poor sales or lack of fan interest, other themes and sets can go on for years if they are selling. LEGO adapts on the fly to the current market and trends, which is in my opinion, a very smart and successful business practice.
Now I'm not going to lie to you, the whole idea of a LEGO “investment/speculation bubble” scares me to death. I am heavily invested in LEGO sets and any talk or rumors of one makes me wonder if it is time to sell. I invested heavily in Technology stocks(NASDAQ) years back and lost my proverbial “shirt.” It got me thinking about my own collection and the LEGO secondary market as a whole. Is there a bubble? I mean, LEGO sets have appeared to go through the roof. $2000+ for a 10179 Millennium Falcon? $1100 for a 10182 Cafe Corner or 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer? $700 for a couple of San Diego Comic Con Marvel minifigures? There has to be a “bubble”...right? Well...maybe. Let's take a look at the definition of a “speculative bubble” again:
A spike in asset values within a particular industry, commodity, or asset class. A speculative bubble is usually caused by exaggerated expectations of future growth, price appreciation, or other events that could cause an increase in asset values. This drives trading volumes higher, and as more investors rally around the heightened expectation, buyers outnumber sellers, pushing prices beyond what an objective analysis of intrinsic value would suggest.
The bubble is not completed until prices fall back down to normalized levels; this usually involves a period of steep decline in price during which most investors panic and sell out of their investments.
The 10179 Millenium Falcon has “spiked” in value over the last year and a half. Same with the 10182 Cafe Corner. A ton of LEGO sets have exploded in value recently. It definitely has to be a bubble...right? Once again...maybe...or maybe not. In order to really tell if the LEGO collectible's market is in an investment bubble, we have to look at the broader view. In other words, we have to look at all LEGO sets and see if all or most of the sets are “spiking” in value in the past year or two. How do we do this? By using the mean CAGR, Compound Annual Growth Rate, for all qualified LEGO sets. In layman's terms, the CAGR can be thought of as the growth rate statistic that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period. It simplifies years of different growth percentages and gives you a single number that represents compounded growth percentage of an investment, in this case, a LEGO set. For our purposes in this discussion, when I say “qualified,” I am referring to the thousands of new and retired LEGO sets in our database that fit a certain criteria. We remove highly volatile sets like Collectible Minifigures and sets that do not have enough sales to make an accurate price guide for. We then take these thousands of sets in our database and calculate a mean, or average, CAGR value for the entire database. If we utilize the BrickPicker database and calculate the mean CAGR for July 2012 for all qualified LEGO sets, we found that the mean CAGR for those sets that qualified was approximately 10.6%. So, basically, the “average” LEGO set(which is based on thousands of LEGO sets in our database) increased in value(on an annual basis), from retail, 10.6% in July 2012. Of course, some sets appreciated better than 10.6% from retail and others less than 10.6%. Well, we know that the 10179 Millennium Falcon and 10182 Cafe Corner exploded in growth over the last several years, but is that indicative of the rest of the LEGO sets? The answer is no. The 10179 Millennium Falcon has a CAGR three times(33.4%) the LEGO CAGR norm(mean) and the 10182 Cafe Corner has a CAGR five times(50.57%) the LEGO CAGR norm(mean). They are exceptions to the rule. What about the rest of the LEGO sets? Is the CAGR “spiking” right now for most LEGO sets? Let's take a look...

We at BrickPicker.com have been collecting market research data from eBay's Terapeak program, which is their Market Research Division, for almost a full two years. I'm not an expert financial analyst or anything close to that, but I would think that a layman such as myself can see if the LEGO collector's market is in some sort of “bubble.” Data does not lie as they say. I mean, you should see some kind of large increase in value in the mean CAGR of the average LEGO set over the past two years at some time. See what I'm getting at? Has the average LEGO set CAGR increased dramatically over the past two years? The answer is NO. Without giving away too much of our valuable and expensive data, I can tell you that the average LEGO set CAGR(~10.6%) has actually dropped 0.1% from July 2011(~10.7%) to July 2012(~10.6%). I'll repeat...DROPPED 0.1%...or basically, for all intents and purposes, remained almost the same and/or the change was negligible. If we look at the data from 19 months ago(when we started collecting the Terapeak data), we will see that the average LEGO set CAGR went up 0.2%, from ~10.4%, with a small spike around December 2011, or Christmastime, of about 1.0%. After Christmas, the prices dropped to slightly below the average and then bounced back to around average a month or two later. Basically, with the exception of the Christmas holiday, the average growth of the average LEGO set, over the course of 19 months, remained flat...with only a paltry increase of ~0.2%. Even to a non-Certified Public Accountant/Financial Analyst like myself, I can tell you that ~0.2% growth in any investment over a 19-month period hardly qualifies as a “spike” in value of that investment.
So what does this all mean? The main questions I asked myself when I started this article were:
Does the Baseball Card collector's market and its recent collapse in value have anything to do with the current status of the LEGO collector's market and future values? Is there a LEGO “investment/speculative” bubble at this present moment? Well, in my opinion, the answer to the first question is no. Although there are some similarities between the two collectible markets and I can see why some people will compare the two, there are some huge differences that outweigh those similarities. First off, the Baseball/Sports Memorabilia collector's market is primarily an adult driven business. What was once a business geared towards children, it has been overtaken by an older clientele and companies that overproduce cards, thus rendering a good portion of those cards...worthless. LEGO sets and bricks on the other hand are geared towards children and primarily bought by children. Although there is an adult based collectible's market in the LEGO world, it is minor in comparison to the overall profit that LEGO makes from kids. It is possible that the LEGO secondary market(eBay and sites that sell mainly retired LEGO sets) could implode, yet the primary LEGO market(LEGO, Toys 'R Us and Amazon.com and other stores that sell mainly new sets) would not...because LEGO keeps prices stable and inventories at safe levels traditionally. It's just an educated guess, but I would say if the primary LEGO market remains strong, the secondary LEGO market will follow suit. On a final note relating to the Baseball Card bubble vs. the LEGO potential bubble, let me say, as both a Baseball Card fan and LEGO fan, that LEGO as a product and collectible is far superior in my opinion. At the end of the day, Baseball Cards do little to stir the imagination of children and adults and have limited playability. It is the playability and fun factor of LEGO bricks that may enable it to be voted “Toy of the NEXT Century,” and keep values strong and consistent.
As for the second question, “Is there a LEGO “investment/speculative” bubble at this present moment?” I'd have to say, in my most humble and non-Financial Analyst's opinion, that the answer to that question is also...no. To be quite honest with you, we were quite surprised when we ran the Terapeak numbers of the past 20 months and found that LEGO prices in the secondary market were remarkably stable. The mean CAGR for the “average” LEGO set(that is based on thousand's of qualified LEGO sets) over the course of 19 months changed very little, if at all. CAGR and LEGO set prices work hand in hand. Higher LEGO set CAGR...higher LEGO set prices, and vice versa. Prices for LEGO sets showed a combined~1.0% increase around the Christmas Holiday in 2011over the “average” industry wide CAGR value of 10.6% and dropped in January and February of 2012, yet bounced back to stable levels around 10.0-10.75% for the remainder of the months observed. I am curious to see if there is another uptick in LEGO set prices in December 2012 and a similar drop off in January and February of 2013. Regardless, it makes sense that LEGO sets go up in price around Christmas and drop off after the holidays. Sellers get premium prices when the significant others of AFOLs are scrambling to buy some rare LEGO set for that special gift for Christmas. Demand drops and money is short after the holidays, so EBAY auctions in January and February are weak.
So now the question is, ”I pay attention to LEGO set prices and they always look like they appreciate...I mean, look at the 10179 Millennium Falcon and 10182 Cafe Corner, they exploded in growth. There must be more sets appreciating like this. Why isn't the mean CAGR going up at a higher rate?” The truth is, there are plenty of LEGO sets exploding in growth. There are also plenty of LEGO sets that are NOT. LEGO investing and collecting is not as easy as some people think. People do lose money buying and selling LEGO sets. There are hundreds, if not thousands of LEGO sets that “depreciate” on a monthly basis and this makes a site like BrickPicker.com that much more valuable to the LEGO investor and collector. We give you, the investor, various data, tools and trends that enable a person to make educated buying choices. It's up to you to figure out which sets to buy and sell. Overall, LEGO sets are a solid and stable investment at this time in my opinion. With an average annual gain of around 10% for your typical LEGO set, you can make a profit if you choose the correct sets to buy and sell them when the timing is right. I lost money on my personal Brickfolio last month. I know why. I know what I did wrong and where the trends are heading. My investing strategy will have to adapt or I will continue to lose money. On a positive note, my investments have already appreciated thousands of dollars and tripled and quadrupled over the years, but it won't last forever. I will have to scan through the data and look for the next 10182 Cafe Corner. Other, newer sets will come along and appreciate better than some older ones that have peaked. Even some older sets find a second wind and become hot commodities at a later age.
The bottom line is, there is no LEGO “investment/speculative bubble” at this time in my opinion. The data shows stable prices and a solid collectible market over the past 19 months and there is no reason, besides a global economic meltdown or some other calamity, that it shouldn't continue. What's even more interesting, is that in the face of one of the worst worldwide recessions in recent history, the secondary LEGO collector's market has remained constant. There are no industry-wide “spikes” in values. While there are some LEGO sets that have exploded in growth, there are others that have not and have balanced out the equation to yield around 10% annually for the average MISB LEGO set. Just like stocks, some go up, some go down...it's up to the individual investor to make the right choices if you want to make money. Good luck in your quest for the next 10182 Cafe Corner...and remember, if the LEGO collectible's market does implode, people do make money investing when there is a “Bear” market. Just my final 2 cents...
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of the LEGO STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series(UCS), let me tell you how a UCS set helped create Brickpicker.com...
Adult LEGO fans(AFOLs) often talk about their “dark ages” when referring to their LEGO collecting hobby. Basically, the term “dark ages” refer to the time a LEGO fan stops playing with LEGO bricks(usually around the age of 12-14) and when they rediscover LEGO bricks(usually when they have kids or are old enough, with enough discretionary income, to buy some expensive STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series LEGO set). The end of my personal “dark age” was when I purchased the 10030 UCS Star Destroyer about five years ago. My brother Jeff and I were at work one day and he showed me a picture of the 10030 off of some STAR WARS site and I said I gotta have it. It was Christmas time and I told my wife that's what I wanted for Christmas. She was like, “What the Hell is a 38-year-old man going to do with that?” I said, “Build it.” And so it began...I received the 10030 for Christmas, then continued to purchase all the UCS sets in existence at the time. I even bought the 10179 for $399.99 from Amazon.com(I should have bought more, but that's another story). Then something happened...
We had our son Max, and my LEGO collecting took a hiatus for two years. I stopped collecting LEGO sets completely for those two years...No eBay...No Amazon...No LEGO...Nothing...Nada. Two years quickly passed and I was messing around on eBay, looking for something for my son and decided to take a look at some LEGO set auctions. What I saw left me speechless. The 10179 Millennium Falcon that I bought two years previous for $399.99, was now selling for close to a $1000.00. I started going through the various LEGO sets that I owned and saw huge gains in all the sets. I mentioned this amazing appreciation to Jeff and we started to formulate the basis of an internet LEGO Price Guide, with an emphasis on investing. The rest is history and Brickpicker.com was born. So there you have it, a couple of Ultimate Collector's Series STAR WARS sets were the spark to the BrickPicker idea. But what about all the UCS sets? Are they all investment winners or are some underachievers or even outright flops? Let's take a more in-depth look at the Ultimate Collector's Series STAR WARS sets.
The LEGO STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series began back in the year 2000, with the release of the 7181 TIE Interceptor and the 7191 X-wing. Both sets were a huge change from the typical STAR WARS themed set, which began in 1999. It was the first time that LEGO designers developed a set geared to the adult LEGO collector market. I get the sense that a change took place with the LEGO company itself around the year 2000. LEGO sets in the year 2000, with the UCS sets leading the charge, became more complicated, original and just downright cool. In 2000, LEGO dropped the “System” nomenclature from the STAR WARS sets and were just known as STAR WARS sets, as if to let fans know that the STAR WARS line was to be taken seriously. The UCS models were such a breath of fresh air from the stagnant, childish line of LEGO sets that encompassed the previous 20 years(with the exception of the 3450 Statue of Liberty of course...) It was as if a light bulb went on in LEGO Corporate Headquarters and said enough already...we can build realistic looking models with LEGO bricks, cater to both the younger and older LEGO fans and make money doing it. Maybe George Lucas had something to do with the improvement in creativity and quality of the STAR WARS theme, maybe not. Regardless, it was a welcome change of pace from basic Space, Castle and City themes and the boring first year models of the STAR WARS “System” theme.
LEGO investment and collecting is a phenomenon that has grown in popularity over the last several years. I highly doubt that in the year 2000, LEGO thought about developing a theme geared towards LEGO “investors,” but they inadvertently did. The recent amazing appreciation of the UCS 10179 Millennium Falcon and other large LEGO sets has brought much attention to the LEGO secondary market and the UCS theme in particular. The UCS theme consists of some of the largest and well known LEGO sets in existence, but does that popularity convert into successful investment sets? Do UCS sets appreciate any better than the average LEGO set(Average CAGR, Compound Annual Growth Rate, for all LEGO sets is 10.81% as of 8/7/12)? Are the STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series really the “ultimate” LEGO investment? Let's take a look at the 19 existing UCS sets and their investment data and BrickPicker analysis for each:
Mean/Average CAGR = 10.81%
7181 TIE INTERCEPTOR Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2000
703
 $99.99
$350.00
15%
250%
11%
0.19
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 7181 TIE Interceptor is the oldest of the UCS sets. Released back in 2000, this set was a bold and fresh idea for The LEGO Group. A theme designed for the LEGO “collector.” The 7181 was the first of many top notch STAR WARS UCS sets, but it never really got enough love from the LEGO collectors out there. The returns on this set over a ten-year span are very close to the average LEGO set “mean” or 10.81%. The 7181 has averaged 11.0% annually over its lifespan on the secondary LEGO market. That is certainly not bad in the investment world, but for LEGO sets, it's just average. On a positive note, these sets are still reasonably priced, even MISB sets. The 7181 appreciated 15% last year, so maybe now is the time to pick one up and see stronger returns than previously seen with this set. Overall, a very nice display set that is an easy build and decent investment.
 
7191 X-WING FIGHTER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2000
1,300
$149.99
$750.00
15%
400%
14.35%
3.54
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Beautiful LEGO model. To me, this is where the LEGO designers really started doing a fantastic job with the UCS sets and in LEGO sets in general. The X-Wing is just a gorgeous display model and looks just like the real thing. No STAR WARS LEGO collection is complete unless you have this set in my opinion. Although the current MISB sets are quite pricey(in the $800 range), a used 7191 in good condition can still be bought around $300. This set has seen very strong and steady growth since EOL, around 14.0% annually, and it looks to continue. If you have a chance to buy one of these sets, new or used, do so. You won't be disappointed.   7194 YODA Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2002
1,075
$99.99
$279.00
29%
179%
10.82%
0.01
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 7194 Yoda is a set very similar to the 7181 TIE Interceptor in annual growth(CAGR) and price. Both sets sold for $100 new and both are selling around $300 currently for a MISB set. This is another set that is still affordable to the new LEGO investors out there. Although this set has not received as much support from the LEGO community as other UCS sets, it did appreciate 29% last year, so now might be a good time to pick one up. A very nice UCS set in appearance and build. Makes for a perfect shelf display. If you are a Yoda fan, this set is a must have.

10018 DARTH MAUL Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2001
1,868
$149.99
$519.00
34%
246%
11.94%
1.13
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 10018 Darth Maul is one of my favorite sets, in case you haven't noticed. The finished display model is quite realistic and downright scary at times. I find that the model watches me when I walk around my office. A very tedious build, with mostly black pieces, it is worth it in the end. As an investment set, the 10018 Darth Maul is just coming into its own. The set grew 34% last year, a very impressive growth number for any investment. A MISB set is selling for well over $500 currently(more like $800+), with the used sets around $300. Although these prices are high, they are not as high as some as the other UCS sets and the 10018 is showing some big time growth as of late. If you are a Darth Maul fan like myself, maybe now is the time to pull the trigger and buy one before they appreciate any higher.
 
10019 REBEL BLOCKADE RUNNER (TANTIVE IV) Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2001
1,747
$199.99
$766.00
17%
283%
12.98%
2.17
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Another of the iconic STAR WARS ships, the 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner(also known as the Tantive IV), blasted onto movies screens in the mid-70s in the first scene of the STAR WARS series. The ship itself is all engine and makes for an impressive LEGO display if viewed from the rear. Interesting design and dark red and white color scheme, this set is another beautiful display set that will contrast well with the gray 10030 Star Destroyer. The 10019 has appreciated well over the years and is selling MISB for $800+. No longer a cost effective set new, used ones are still available in the $400 range. Be careful. This set has a ton of stickers and they are getting old. Some used sets have them applied and are falling off. The 10019 returned 17% last year, so there is still solid growth if you are interested in adding one to your UCS collection.

10026 SPECIAL EDITION NABOO STARFIGHTER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2002
187
$39.99
$255.00
29%
539%
20.37%
9.56
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The smallest and cheapest of the UCS STAR WARS sets, this set is not small in appreciation. Current values for a MISB set are in the $300 range and the set has been averaging over 20% growth annually since EOL. Last year alone, the set grew 29%, which is outstanding. A very small set, it is a nice change of pace from the gray and white ships of the STAR WARS UCS theme. The set is a bright yellow with very cool chrome pieces, which makes for a bold little model. An easy build and a perfect shelf piece, it is a nice addition to any LEGO collection. But the prices for a new one are a bit high for what you get, so see if you can locate a used one in good condition for around $100. Obviously, the set is still appreciating well, but with a small set such as this, who knows if that growth will continue. 10030 IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2002
3,096
$269.99
$1173.00
32%
292%
14.65%
3.84
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: One of the “Big Boys” of the UCS theme. The 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer is one large and in charge STAR WARS set, maybe the largest in physical size. “Impressive” is its middle name. With well over 3000 pieces, this set will be a jewel in any LEGO investor's collection. This is my favorite all time LEGO set and was the set that brought me out of my “Dark Ages.” I could not believe that you could reproduce a Star Destroyer and sell it to the public. When I saw this set, I was amazed. I was used to childish sets in the Space theme and the like and really opened my eyes to LEGO sets again. From an investor's standpoint, this set is still appreciating very, very well. Last year alone, it increased 32%. There is no getting around spending a chunk of change for this set, new or used. New, they are selling well above $1000, used...around $600. If you are fortunate enough to afford one, buy one...you will not be disappointed. 10129 REBEL SNOWSPEEDER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2003
1,455
$129.99
$751.00
-1%
478%
21.51%
10.7
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 10129 is a sharp UCS set. I really like the look of the orange and white bricks. Different look. The cockpit is top notch in this set. Nice details. This set has sky rocketed into the $800 range, but has leveled off as of late. As a matter of fact, the set actual decreased in value over the past year. This might be a warning to those still interested in buying this set as an investment...the party might be over. Then again...it might not be...LOL, what do I know? If you like the set, buy the set. It is very unique looking and is a nice addition to any collection. There are plenty of quality used 10129s, so keep an eye out for one in the $400 range. All in all, a solid UCS set in style, substance, and playability.

10134 Y-WING ATTACK STARFIGHTER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2004
1,473
$119.99
$512.00
8%
327%
19.9%
9.09
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: A UCS set very similar in size, price and growth to the 10129 Rebel Snowspeeder. Although this set did not appreciate as well as the 10129 over the long term, it is a year younger and did appreciate 8% last year. The overall 20% annual growth is excellent and it is one of those under the radar UCS sets that get overshadowed by the flashier 7191 X-Wing and 10030 Star Destroyer. A very nice display set, as are most UCS sets, the 10134 will not overly impress anyone, but there is great detail to the set and a STAR WARS fan will approve. You might be able to find one for $300+ used and in the $500+ range MISB. Overall, another solid, non-flashy set that has had nice gains since EOL and might continue to do so, but on a reduced level in my opinion.

10143 DEATH STAR II Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2005
3,441
$269.99
$805.00
34%
169%
15.21%
4.4
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The “non-minifigure” Death Star, this set is nevertheless, still quite a sight. This is another tedious and difficult build in that it is basically all one color...gray. There are almost 3500 gray pieces. LOL. It takes some time and patience to complete this UCS model. As stated earlier, the finished product is another impressive UCS display, but this is one of the larger ones and needs some space. The 10143 Death Star II took some time to catch the eye of the LEGO collector and investor. I guess people were putting their investment dollars into the 10179 Millennium Falcon and other popular UCS sets early on, but with a 34% growth rate last year, I guess the 10143 Death Star II has found some fans. If you like the accurate version of the Death Star, then this set is for you. If you like the “diorama” Death Star, the 10188 is for you(and a better deal at this point). 10174 IMPERIAL AT-ST Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2006
1,068
$79.99
$160.00
49%
100%
12.28%
1.47
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Very underrated UCS set, but now is the time to buy one of these sets. If you look at the data, this set appreciated 49% last year. That is Cafe Corner type of numbers. It is a decent-sized set at a little over 1000 pieces and is actually quite large when completed. Although the 10174 Imperial AT-ST is never going to win a popularity contest, a smart LEGO investor and collector will see the value in this set. The prices are still very fair and you can find a used one for less than $100. I highly recommend this set as a buy before they get too pricey.

10175 VADER'S TIE ADVANCED Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2006
1,212
$99.99
$259
78%
159%
17.21%
6.4
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: If you thought the recent gains of the 10174 Imperial AT-ST were extraordinary, then the 10175's data will really excite you. The 10175 Vader' TIE Advanced went up 78% last year!!! That is better than Cafe Corner's numbers last year! You can see how these UCS sets explode in growth at some point after EOL. Some might take a little longer than others, but most of the sets have a value spurt at some time, you just have to figure out when that will be and buy them before they start appreciating too high to be worth investing in. As a set, the 10175 is an excellent replica of Darth Vader's ship from STAR WARS IV, The New Hope. The one issue I have with these older UCS sets is that they do not come with minifigures or are exactly to scale for them. They could be, but the designers chose against it. This set craves for Darth Vader to be sitting at the controls. Overall, this set is a great choice. Buy one now before they hit $500.    10179 MILLENNIUM FALCON Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2007
5,195
$499.99
$2058.00
58%
312%
32.71%
21.82
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Here we go...What can you say about the 10179 that hasn't been said before. THE SET IS A JUGGERNAUT!!! The terms amazing, incredible, unbelievable, impressive all apply to probably the greatest LEGO set ever produced for retail. In every way, this set is a winner. The 5000+ pieces is second only to the 10189 Taj Mahal. This is the first LEGO set to reach an average MISB set price of $2000. What surprises me the most about this set is that it appreciated 58% last year. 58%!!! That's not 58% from $100 or $200. That is a 58% increase from $1300 or $1400!!! At this point, I really don't know when this set will stop its ascent, but you can argue that there is still room to increase and that a 10179 selling for $1800 is a bargain. A couple of points about the set. It's massive. It needs the proper place to be displayed or it will get destroyed. Believe me, you do not want to repair this ship if damaged. You might as well start from scratch. Another important point is that there are two versions of the 10179, a “First Edition” which included the first 10,000 sets made and a regular version. The “First Edition” comes with a numbered envelope in the box that states which set of the 10,000 it is and a letter and “Certificate of Authenticity” from LEGO stating this fact. Also, the box has a special marking indicating it is a “First Edition” 10179. Prices for the First Edition 10179 usually are $200-$300 more than a non-First Edition set. All in all, if you can afford this set, buy this set, it is that special. Who knows, the 10179 might be the first LEGO set to hit the $3000 mark this time next year...LOL.
 
10186 GENERAL GRIEVOUS Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2008
1,085
$89.99
$92.00
35%
2%
0.5
-10.31
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The interest in this set amazes me. Although we have seen a nice increase in value in the set in the past year, up 35%, the current value of the set is around the MSRP price of $89.99. So in other words, this set dropped 35% in value around the time of EOL. That is some pretty steep discounting for a UCS set. Now most LEGO sets see some kind of discounting around retirement time, but this set really took a hit. That being said, it is a very cool set and a decent size to boot. Once again, an excellent display set. General Grievous is a nasty character and this set does him justice. Unique to the UCS STAR WARS sets, this set is a hybrid of Technic and conventional parts in that it shares building techniques and pieces with both themes. There is even a taste of Bionicle/Hero Factory thrown in. I really like this set and foresee some really nice gains in the near future for this set. Priced at around $100 for a MISB set, it is a great set for the novice LEGO collector and investor. Pick one up, you won't be disappointed.
 
10212 IMPERIAL SHUTTLE Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2010
2,503
$259.99
$232.00
5%
-11%
-5.41%
-16.22
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 10212 Imperial Shuttle is still for sale on LEGO.com and other primary sources(Amazon, Toys 'R Us, etc..), so the data for the set is not relevant at this time. If you use the older, retired UCS sets as a guide for the current models that are still being sold in stores, you can expect to see nice gains for this set in the future. The 10212 looks to be discontinued shortly and there have been numerous discounts for this already. It is a beautiful and graceful set, that is stunning up on a shelf. First UCS set to include minifigures on a large scale. Several sets had droids previously, but they were actually part of the model and not meant to be taken out of the set. See if you can locate a discounted 10212 Imperial Shuttle for around the $200 -$220 right before EOL and you might stand to make a pretty penny in the secondary LEGO market.
 
10215 OBI-WAN JEDI STARFIGHTER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2010
676
$99.99
$71.00
-19%
-29%
-16.03%
-26.84
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The 10215 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter is suffering from severe discounting right now. The set is discontinued and might start seeing a rapid increase in values when most AFOLs realize the set is retired. This set looks cool on display, but is not a LEGO fan favorite, at least not yet. Sometimes it takes awhile for LEGO fans to come around and get interested in a LEGO set and this might be such a case. It is an interesting looking set and different from most UCS sets. The lime green bricks is a nice touch. Now is the time to pick one of these sets up. They are well less than $100 for a MISB and can double in value in a short period of time once a little buzz starts on a set. Take a chance on this colorful UCS set, I don't think you will be disappointed.
  
10221 SUPER STAR DESTROYER Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2011
3,152
$399.99
New
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Another new UCS with no data that is relevant at this time. Beautiful set. I believe this set will do well in the secondary market, yet my gut tells me this set will not be as popular as the 10030 Star Destroyer. I could be wrong, but I really don't like the way LEGO throws in minifigures into sets like this. Call me a nudge or just anal, I really don't like when LEGO designers feel they need to toss in some out of scale minifigures to make some fans happy. There are plenty of other UCS sets that could have had minigures...7181 TIE Interceptor, 7191 X-Wing Fighter, 10129 Rebel Snowspeeder, 10134 Y-Wing Attack Starfighter, 10174 Imperial AT-ST, 10175 Vader's TIE Advanced, 102015 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfigher, yet they decide to throw them into a model that is supposed to be 19,000 meters long...LOL. Maybe they could have put some mini Star Destroyers in the hanger bays or made a separate bridge model for the minifigures. Just my two cents...All in all, it will be a very successful UCS set and I would recommend buying at least one.

10225 R2-D2 Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2012
2,127
$179.99
New
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Another new UCS set with no relevant sales data as of yet. This is one set the LEGO designers did a fantastic job with. Retractable leg, rotating head, panels that remove with the interface arm and saw...WOW. Plus the UCS display plaque has a R2-D2 minifigure attached. How cool is that? Needless to say, I love this set and will buy multiples for my own collection. 10227 B-WING Year Released Pieces MSRP (US$) Current Value(US$) % Return Last Year % Return From MSRP CAGR(%) Over/Under Mean CAGR 2012
1,487
$199.99
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Not released as of this date. Fantastic looking set. Another winner in my opinion. I like the B-Wing ship and think it displays better in the vertical position. Seems like there is some negative feedback on the forums about this set, but until you actually build the set, how can you really complain about it? I look forward to buying a couple for my collection.

  CONCLUSION: As a whole, the STAR WARS LEGO sets that make up the Ultimate Collector's Series are and have been solid investment choices for the LEGO collectors who have bought them. Each and every set, from the 10179 Millennium Falcon and earlier, has yielded better returns than the average 10.81% CAGR of the standard LEGO set. The newer UCS sets have not fared that well, but that is to be expected. All new LEGO sets go through a period of heavy discounting before the set goes into EOL, or retirement as some would like to call it. Even the 10179 Millennium Falcon was discounted 20% before it was retired for good. The one thing that I noticed with these UCS sets is that they take a little longer to rebound from these discounted prices than some other themes. Maybe it's because the sets are pricier than most other themes and the discounts are larger, thus taking longer to get back to the original retail price.  Whatever the reason for the delay, once the UCS sets start appreciating, they take off like the Millennium Falcon in Hyperdrive.  Now, not all UCS sets are created equal.  Some sets like the 7181 TIE Interceptor and 7194 Yoda have not exploded in growth like the 10179 Millennium Falcon or 10026 Naboo Starfighter, but they all yielded better than the average LEGO set.
As with any sort of investment, say stocks for instance, picking the right stock(even within the same category or class), can mean a huge difference in profits and losses.  It is no different with LEGO sets.  You can see the large differences between some sets within the UCS theme.  Some appreciated well, but others exploded in growth.  Size didn't matter.  The largest(10179) and the smallest(10026) UCS sets both had the best yields, it's just that the 10179 started at a much higher price point, so the end results seemed so astronomically high in comparison.  The high original cost of these UCS sets is another reason why they appear to be such great investments.  When a $300 set averages 15%-20% annually, it doesn't take long for a set to hit $1000.  In all honesty, the UCS sets are not even close to being the theme with the best CAGR returns.  Even though on average, the UCS sets gain around 15% annually, there are many non-STAR WARS UCS based LEGO themes that  have better annual percentage yields and better percentage growth from retail, but they don't get any love because they sell for $20, instead of $2000.  As I referred to earlier, the high current prices of most of the UCS sets gives this theme a certain swagger and sexiness that other themes don't have.  Without a doubt, they are my favorite LEGO sets and these sets not only led me out of my “Dark Ages,” they also enabled LEGO to become relevant again to a lot of adults out there.  But they are not the “ultimate” investment(maybe with the exception of the 10179 Millennium Falcon) as the article title asks.  The LEGO STAR WARS Ultimate Collector Series sets are solid, above average investments that cost a lot new and sell for even more years later, if you choose to utilize them in that manner.  But it is my belief, regardless of your investment preferences, that these UCS sets are too fantastic and fun not to build, and that if you have to make a choice between keeping the UCS set sealed or building it...build it.  You won't be disappointed!
Please Note: If you do decide to open and build your MISB UCS set, keep one thing in mind...You might lose more than 50% of the value of the set if it is unsealed and built.  Although the “used” set is still worth more than the retail price of the set in most cases, losing out on hundreds of dollars might be a hard pill to swallow.  A possible solution for the LEGO investor and collector that wants to “have a sealed set and build it too,” would be to buy a cheap “used” set that does not have a box or instructions, just the pieces.  You can always go to LEGO.com for the instructions.  Sometimes you can save more than 50% on a UCS set in this condition.  Just my final two cents...
The definition of Larceny is as follows:
Anyone who steals, or with intent to defraud obtains by a false pretense, or whoever unlawfully, and with intent to steal or embezzle, converts, or secretes with intent to convert, the property of another … whether such property is or is not in his possession at the time of such conversion or secreting, shall be guilty of larceny. … (Mass. Gen. Laws Ann. ch. 266, § 30(1)).
As Bob Dylan once wrote, “The times are a changin'.”  The term “larceny” and LEGO in the same sentence?  What is the world coming to?  Well, truth be told, I'm surprised it took this long for the crooks and scam artists of the world to infiltrate the innocent world of LEGO bricks.  LEGO sets and bricks are valuable toys and are highly collectible, making them targets of the con men/women out there.  I've been buying and investing in LEGO sets and bricks for years and have bought thousands of sets, from hundreds of sellers from around the world...and I've been ripped off numerous times.  I'm here today to share some of these stories with you and others I have come across in my journeys.  It is my wish that you learn from my experiences and prevent future monetary and time loss for yourselves.
Let's take a look at a couple of recent stories about con men who utilized LEGO sets in their scams.  Although the following stories are not from my personal experiences, they are a good way to illustrate how far and to what lengths crooks will go to make money involving LEGO sets and bricks:
In another related story of a “second LEGO bar-code switch scam”:
As you can see, these two characters got very creative in their LEGO scams.  But even with technical and unique approach to making a fast buck, their greed led to their ultimate downfall.  But most LEGO scams are not this elaborate, but they might be more prevalent.  One such common scam is called “drop shipping.”  Drop shipping is an auction site scam that occurs quite frequently to buyers on eBay and similar sites.  A crooked seller will list the “deal of a century” for an expensive LEGO set on the auction site.  The set will be $100+ in value and currently available from primary sources, like LEGO, Target, Walmart, etc...in order to maximize profits.  A set similar to a 10214 Tower Bridge or 10188 Death Star would be perfect candidates for this scam.  Basically, the con artist would sell a $400 10188 Death Star for $300-$350 as a Buy it Now.  Potential buyers would snap up these sets in droves.  The listing will look legit with photos and a generic description of the LEGO set.  The sale will be consummated through Pay Pal and the buyer will receive a brand new 10188 Death Star a couple of days later from LEGO or another large chain store.  The buyer will be happy, leave positive feedback and the cycle continues.
But wait...I said the LEGO set came from LEGO or another store?  Yes.  Basically the shady seller will use stolen credit card information to purchase the LEGO sets online and send them directly to your door.  The original listing will be from one person and the item will be shipped from another.  The addresses never correlate, but the buyer is happy because they got the new set, at a great price and won't bother looking at the receipt in most instances.  There was no reason to think the item was stolen or acquired through fraudulent means.  The seller will do this multiple times, to multiple buyers, over a short time span, so that the person that the stolen credit card information was taken from, will not realize there was any extra charges put on the credit card for weeks to come.  The unethical seller will even have a legit PayPal account to receive your “clean” money and eBay account, with positive feedback.  The seller can easily make thousands of dollars off of a week's worth of fraudulent transactions.
So you now may ask, “Why do I care?  I got my MISB 10188 Death Star for $300!  LEGO and eBay make lots of money.  I deserve a break!”  Well, for one, LEGO is getting smart to these practices.  They are starting to question orders in which the billing and shipping orders are different.  But even more importantly, they are freezing the LEGO accounts and MVP memberships of customers who received the questionable goods(if sold by LEGO).  How do I know this?  It happened to me.  I bought a 10223 Kingdoms Joust for $105 from an eBay seller.  It was a nice deal, but nothing special because I had to pay shipping costs also.  Regardless, it was a couple of dollars cheaper than the current lowest retail price, which belonged to LEGO, so I pulled the trigger and purchased it.  The 10223 Kingdoms Joust arrived in a brand new LEGO shipping box, with a LEGO receipt in it.  I really didn't know about the scam at the time, so I really didn't even bother looking at the receipt.  Mind you, I have thousands of LEGO sets and the UPS truck is stopping by my house on a daily basis, so unless the LEGO set is damaged in some way, I usually just put the box away.  Several weeks later I go to place an order with LEGO and the LEGO Shop website says to call LEGO customer service.  After a half hour on the phone with the LEGO representative, my name was cleared and my account was restored.  I had to submit proof that someone else sold me the 10223 Kingdom's Joust and submitted the eBay transaction data.
LEGO has begun a campaign to warn LEGO fans of such practices and want the LEGO community to pay attention and report such irregular and questionable activities.  They are putting the onus on LEGO buyers and are using the suspension of LEGO accounts as a wake-up call and warning to buyers that if a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  eBay is also doing its share to stop drop shipping.  eBay is not immediately paying new sellers or sellers with low feedback scores money until an item is received and positive feedback is given.  There is also a time delay in hopes that fraudulent credit card use can be traced back to the criminal.  These are positive steps and I believe they are making a difference.  I have not seen any sorts of crazy deals from sellers lately on eBay, so I hope it is working.  It is up to the LEGO buyer to keep an eye on this unscrupulous behavior and report it to the proper authorities.
Drop shipping is not the only method the deviants use to rip off the LEGO buyer.  I'll call the next shady scheme, “The Shill Set.”  Basically, a dishonest eBay seller will list a high ticket item, like a $1500-$2000 10179 Millennium Falcon, sell it at a great price, collect the PayPal payment, obtain shipping tracking numbers, submit tracking numbers to eBay and buyer and NEVER SEND THE LEGO SET!  This has happened twice to me.  In both cases, a large and expensive set was bought, paid for and never sent.  In both cases, generic photos of the LEGO sets were used.  In both cases, the seller had decent feedback(more than 15 sales, but less than 50, which is usually enough to get paid immediately by PayPal).  This is the type of scam that takes some experience with the eBay system and some planning.  The shady seller needs to build up some positive feedback before pulling off this scheme.  They must set up a valid PayPal account, which requires a valid bank account.  It is all pretty risky, but the payoff can be thousands of dollars once again.  If they pull this scam off, five to ten times in a month, they stand to make $5000-$10,000 or more.
You may ask, “How can they get away with this?”  Well, they use the eBay system to their benefit.  First, they use generic industry photos of the item which are readily supplied by eBay themselves, instead of actual photos.  Second, they say the item will ship days after the auction and give some date two weeks in the future in which the item is to be received, thus giving them weeks to pull off additional scams.  And last...they use eBay's customer service and problem reporting system against them.  eBay wants a buyer and seller to work things out on their own and always want each to give the other some 'time' to respond to issues and concerns.  You, as the buyer, might know there is an issue, but once you contact eBay customer service, they put time restrictions of when you can and cannot open a case against a seller, thus giving the crooked seller even more time to take advantage of innocent LEGO buyers.  All in all, a con man might get a month or more after the initial transaction to sucker in other buyers.  Now, mind you, eBay does an excellent job of refunding your money after a case is opened, but you still are without the LEGO set and maybe passed on other great deals while you were waiting for this set to arrive.  Also, the aggravation of filling out case reports and time wasted is another issue for the buyer.  Two things a buyer can do to prevent this “shill” scam from occurring to them would be to ask for actual pictures of the LEGO set being sold and only buying from eBay sellers with 100+ feedback(or if less feedback, make sure other high ticket items were sold and received positive feedback).  These two simple preventative measures can make your life as a LEGO buyer much easier.
So far we have seen some major ways to defraud the LEGO-buying public.  How about some smaller scams that people need to look out for?  The first simple scam is when eBay or Bricklink sellers will list a set as “new” and remove the minifigures, thus making profit from the minifigure sales and from listing the item as new.  The box is new, the pieces are new, the instuctions are new, yet the shady seller will remove the minifigures and put in real small print somewhere in the listing that the minifigures were removed.  This is just deception at its finest.  I don't know about you, but when something is “new,” it means unopened and untouched, with all the pieces.  These slick sellers really get me angry because I blame myself for not thoroughly reading the “entire” listing.  How can I complain to eBay, when the seller actually has the notation written in the listing?  Just be leery of all listings and make sure you read everything so you don't get any surprises later.
Keeping with the crooked eBay and Bricklink seller theme, be wary of shipping charges.  This is another deceptive practice that the unscrupulous seller will use to make a quick buck off of inexperienced LEGO buyers.  Simply put, the seller will list an item at a fantastic price, say a MISB 10030 Star Destroyer for $300(Buy it now).  The buyer will say, “WOW, great deal!” and buy it immediately.  What they fail to realize is that the shipping charges were $400.  Ouch...It happens all the time and it has happened to me more than once I'm afraid to admit.  Once again, you can report the item and seller, but it takes weeks to come to any sort of resolution.  Some deceptive selling practices also take place on lower priced items.  A $10 small item with a $25 shipping fee is a very common site.  I report these sellers as much as I can, but a LEGO buyer needs to pay attention and read all the fine print before hitting that Buy It Now button.  If is sounds too good to be true, then I would move on to the next buying option.
A couple more of the simple LEGO scams frequently found on LEGO auction sites would be the mislabeling of non-LEGO sets and poor descriptions of real LEGO sets to mislead potential buyers, in order to increase profits.  Scan the LEGO auctions on eBay and you will find countless non-LEGO sets listed as and/or with LEGO sets.  These inferior products look like LEGO sets and to the layman, are LEGO sets...until the buyer sees them in person and realizes they were ripped off.  The sellers that list these as LEGO sets are plentiful and should be banned.  Buyers need to be aware of these sub-par building toys.  Another common shady practice is the incorrect and deceptive description of LEGO sets by crooked sellers.  As stated earlier, some sellers will remove minifigures and list the LEGO set as new.  Some characters will list a set that was built as new or new in box.  What?  Seriously.  The set was built and these con men will try and make a couple of extra dollars and say that the set was for display purposes and is “like new.”  Come on.  But it's done, every day.  Please read listings carefully.  Look for actual photos.  Protect yourself and your investment dollars.
This leads us to the last of the larcenous LEGO schemes.  This one involves the buying of LEGO sets from a large chain department store such as Walmart or Target, carefully removing the seals on the boxes and then skimming some parts from the complete set.  The box is then resealed and returned to the store.  The crooked seller will then resell the parts or minifigures on eBay or Bricklink and make a quick buck, with no investment.  This is probably the hardest theft or deceptive act a buyer or retailer has to deal with.  There is no way to tell if a set was opened, until it was actually built.  This could be weeks or months after a set has been returned and in most cases, the new owner of the set will just contact LEGO for replacement parts.  This type of deception can also happen with older, sealed sets.  For example, if a rare and retired set is sealed and some thief wants to remove valuable minifigures from say...a 10123 Cloud City set, and reseal them, how will a buyer know?  They wouldn't, unless of course the new buyer would break the seals and open the box, which they won't for fear of losing value on that highly collectible set.  It's a Catch 22.  On one hand, check the set and lose value or don't and never know what you bought.  The best suggestion I have for you is to use quality sources to buy LEGO sets.  Only buy from eBay and Bricklink sellers that have great feedback and numerous positive sales.  As for buying from the local Walmart or Target, avoid any sets that look tampered with.  If you do get stuck with a lemon, you can always return it. 
Well, that's about most of the major LEGO scams I know of.  Times are tough.  The worldwide economy is in bad shape.  Unemployment is high.  The criminals and shysters of the world have discovered that LEGO sets are a valuable commodity and are easily used to make a quick profit through unscrupulous means.  Some of these crooks might be good people at heart, but tough times force them to do things they wouldn't normally do to put food on the table.  Regardless of their reasons, LEGO investors and collectors need to protect themselves.  Take your time and be thorough when reading listings.  Read the fine print.  Look at the shipping charges.  Buy from reputable sellers that have great feedback.  Ask questions and look for real photos of the item.  Look for tampered boxes.  And most of all...if the price seems too cheap, it might be a scam.  I hope this helps some people avoid issues I have encountered over the years.  Please, if you see something that looks fishy, report the listing or item to eBay, LEGO or whatever source you are buying from.  It might just save another LEGO fan like yourself some future monetary loss and aggravation...

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