Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Got a question, how much do you think a back to the future set with christopher lloyd's signature would be worth, the box is in excellent condition and is complete. Not sealed. I think you killed it when you said that it wasn't a MISB, which from my personal opinion would be more sought after by the fans. Equation I would use Lloyd's Signature cost + Used Set value + $30 - 50. Just a rough stab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Like you there are many! But we can see that this set has still been quite hoarded for the life it did have - more and more are coming out of the woodwork in recent days. This makes me feel pessimistic about PS. The market will always be there (at an equilibrium price) for the Modulars regardless of how hoarded the set is. Once the set retires you'll see an initial dump with close to RRP from the people trying to make a quick buck/or need the cashflow. Another surge will flow on to the market around the 6 month mark (especially after prices have been increasing like they have) and probably another surge around Christmas, after that I'd say that the newbies and the QF'ers will have exhausted their stock and the prices will increase but steadier. PS will follow the same pattern as the GE in growth as it can be used in a variety of ways to be worked into a LEGO city landscape (Painting Easter Eggs make a fantastic kitchen area). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED-209 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Like you there are many! But we can see that this set has still been quite hoarded for the life it did have - more and more are coming out of the woodwork in recent days. This makes me feel pessimistic about PS. I wouldn't be pessimistic about PS. My guess is that GE was just as hoarded and it has doubled since EOL at the end of last year. Im uncertain how high it'll climb... It may plateau sooner than expected. I'm late to the game, so I missed out on TH and GE. I have invested in PS though. If at the end of the day (after eol) I can double my money after ebay fees, I'll be content. I think the days of mega returns are pretty much over. I may be wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I wouldn't be pessimistic about PS. My guess is that GE was just as hoarded and it has doubled since EOL at the end of last year. Im uncertain how high it'll climb... It may plateau sooner than expected. I'm late to the game, so I missed out on TH and GE. I have invested in PS though. If at the end of the day (after eol) I can double my money after ebay fees, I'll be content. I think the days of mega returns are pretty much over. I may be wrong I think this is what will catch a lot of the new investors out, is that they hope that the set will double RRP (after fees, etc) which isn't always possible, personally I aim for a minimum of 1.5x, anything better great, but with wave after wave of new investors I think that 2x days will be numbered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFFOL Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 We need a scam radar, should open a thread just dedicated to spotting these shifty so and so's. Even though you are guaranteed by pay pal it is a nuisance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFFOL Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I think this is what will catch a lot of the new investors out, is that they hope that the set will double RRP (after fees, etc) which isn't always possible, personally I aim for a minimum of 1.5x, anything better great, but with wave after wave of new investors I think that 2x days will be numbered. 1.5 is realistic as there is so much competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 1.5x is sometime hard to achieve? i not speaking from experience since i have not start selling yet. Is it the norm? i mean after deducting all the associated fees etc....not too sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 We need a scam radar, should open a thread just dedicated to spotting these shifty so and so's. Even though you are guaranteed by pay pal it is a nuisance. Overhere in brickpicker there seems to have a thread about ridiculous prices that people are selling for in ebay. But not really a dedicated scam radar....even if so....need one for Australia..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Junior Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Good profit on anything is hard to achieve on ebay after you have paid fees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeffProbst Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 (edited) 1.5x is sometime hard to achieve? i not speaking from experience since i have not start selling yet. Is it the norm? i mean after deducting all the associated fees etc....not too sure. In my experience, yes it can be (in the beginning at least) I use a spreadsheet to track my purchases and sales, and since I have started selling in December I am running at a margin of 26% (fees and postage costs already deducted). These are mostly flips so I am hoping that my margin will look healthier when I start selling off Modulars and other exclusives down the road. That's the plan at least. There's every chance that I could lose the passion just as soon as I acquired it. Edited April 12, 2015 by JeffProbst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Junior Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Selling on ebay is not as easy as it looks , as you have to find lego that is both rare and popular. Something can be rare at one moment , and the market flooded the next, due to retailers getting more stock in, and then the sets that you were selling everyday, you can no longer sell (for any profit) till there is a nationwide or worldwide shortage again, or EOL. When you have those rare popular items it is awesome. But there is huge financial risk. At least with lego it holds it's value , and can increase once eol. I have been selling on ebay for about 7 years (other things as well as lego) , and it is a lot harder than it used to be. Fees keep going up. It is worth checking what you actually pay, often more than you think, once you include listing fees , store fees and paypal fees, postage fees. The competition is getting more dishonest (due to ebay opening up more to China and Japan). Fake products are rampant. You have to compete against dropshippers. And it is harder to purchase anything from overseas due to the weak Australian dollar. Ebay get money from advertisements that they put on your listing , which advertise the same product as the one you are trying to sell , and paid them a fee to list it. And that competitor is often cheaper. Ebay have special deals with all the big department stores , which often sell your product for 20% less than retail on ebay That is hard to compete with. i am amazed that it is hard to get a decent profit , even when you purchase something at half price. If you sell too much , even though your profit is tiny , you have to pay the gst. You have to put an enormous amount of time into research to stay ahead of competition, and keep reinventing yourself every 3 months, when what you have been selling suddenly becomes last gen. I know I sound very negative - but realistically , it is a lot of hard work for little gain. I enjoy doing it, but mostly do it to pay the bills. The ebay haters out there have no idea how hard we work to make rare products available to them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED-209 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I think this is what will catch a lot of the new investors out, is that they hope that the set will double RRP (after fees, etc) which isn't always possible, personally I aim for a minimum of 1.5x, anything better great, but with wave after wave of new investors I think that 2x days will be numbered. I am one of those new investors, sure am. You say that double isn't possible with the sets, but a quick number crunch shows that after fees you made around $383 profit over RRP on your TH. That's substantially over double and this is only 3 months after EOL. This fact in itself gives me hope that one day I can double my money on my PSs. Or am I missing something? If your GE can sell for 500, then that's also getting closer to doubling in price, also only a short time after eol. Are you suggesting modulars are not the way to go? They do tie up a lot of capital and space that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 What I meant was that there are more and more investors on the market and we can even see that in smaller markets like ours. How many others have entered the game after GE and FB and are hoarding PS and PC? Thats why returns will be lower - not due to less demand but rather due to more supply. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 In my experience, yes it can be (in the beginning at least) I use a spreadsheet to track my purchases and sales, and since I have started selling in December I am running at a margin of 26% (fees and postage costs already deducted). These are mostly flips so I am hoping that my margin will look healthier when I start selling off Modulars and other exclusives down the road. That's the plan at least. There's every chance that I could lose the passion just as soon as I acquired it. From experience, this what happens throughout the year, an influx of people seeking quick money enter the market (not realising it's actually hard) and a good number of them are either dormant or have left. Modulars are the better investment as they have seen the greater returns but they are also what bring more sellers into the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 What I meant was that there are more and more investors on the market and we can even see that in smaller markets like ours. How many others have entered the game after GE and FB and are hoarding PS and PC? Thats why returns will be lower - not due to less demand but rather due to more supply. Mike, this pretty much sums up the reply to your post. The modulars are good, but so was minecraft & Elsa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED-209 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 It's hard for me to say that there are many new sellers these days because I myself am one. But I believe it when you guys say it though. Even at 30%+ off, SW sets pretty hard to turn a profit off. I can see the market is absolutely saturated. Gumtree seems even worse. Almost like a race to the bottom. The profits that some of these people are making must be so tiny. I've taken your advice Lucifer, and I've put some listings up on ebay to gain some rep. I made my first sale the other day, a hot dog man minifig. He sold for 14 bucks with free shipping. Truly just a drop in the ocean I know, but 120% ROI after all expenses. I don't want to get too starry eyed about it though, as the amount of money is tiny. Slow but steady is my motto. I can sit on most of my stuff for the long haul and I have a fairly steady income to keep things moving without having to sell hastily. Anyways, I hope you guys have a good Monday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 It's hard for me to say that there are many new sellers these days because I myself am one. But I believe it when you guys say it though. Even at 30%+ off, SW sets pretty hard to turn a profit off. I can see the market is absolutely saturated. Gumtree seems even worse. Almost like a race to the bottom. The profits that some of these people are making must be so tiny. I've taken your advice Lucifer, and I've put some listings up on ebay to gain some rep. I made my first sale the other day, a hot dog man minifig. He sold for 14 bucks with free shipping. Truly just a drop in the ocean I know, but 120% ROI after all expenses. I don't want to get too starry eyed about it though, as the amount of money is tiny. Slow but steady is my motto. I can sit on most of my stuff for the long haul and I have a fairly steady income to keep things moving without having to sell hastily. Anyways, I hope you guys have a good Monday. I personally stay away from Star Wars due to the market saturation, even tending to be like that with the Super Hero sets (that doesn't leave much left ) I don't mind with the influx of new investors as the market will weed them out (the dodgy, quick buckers) and makes me more vigilant as to my own QA. I'm glad that you have taken my advise regarding your selling, as you yourself with see the influx at Christmas with fresh eyes and a bit of eBay rep will go a long way. Well I'm off to uni for 3 hours 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 When the second Lego investor entered the market, the first one complained about it - this always has been and always will be the case with any profitable investment. So far, there has been enough room for all of us but I really feel it is getting to the stage where the balance is tipping too far in the direction of market saturation. At Xmas time there is still enough demand to accommodate all of us but during the rest of they year things are pretty quiet. The number of retired products on the market now also makes it tougher as it is one thing to spend 800 on that one set that got away, but not if you are missing 3 or 4 of them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFFOL Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 (edited) When the second Lego investor entered the market, the first one complained about it - this always has been and always will be the case with any profitable investment. So far, there has been enough room for all of us but I really feel it is getting to the stage where the balance is tipping too far in the direction of market saturation. At Xmas time there is still enough demand to accommodate all of us but during the rest of they year things are pretty quiet. The number of retired products on the market now also makes it tougher as it is one thing to spend 800 on that one set that got away, but not if you are missing 3 or 4 of them! I actually agree about it being expensive to catch up on systems past. I been buying lego for more than a decade and when I look back I was lucky to get some sets, especially the last ed. of harry potter. I would hate to buy it now. Now that I am into the market to sell new stuff, with so much competition I think the long haul is best unless the economy goes bad. Edited April 13, 2015 by AFFOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFFOL Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I personally stay away from Star Wars due to the market saturation, even tending to be like that with the Super Hero sets (that doesn't leave much left ) I don't mind with the influx of new investors as the market will weed them out (the dodgy, quick buckers) and makes me more vigilant as to my own QA. I'm glad that you have taken my advise regarding your selling, as you yourself with see the influx at Christmas with fresh eyes and a bit of eBay rep will go a long way. Well I'm off to uni for 3 hours Have you seen the new pirate stuff in Kmart. It looks cool, not sure about value for money unless it's on sale, which in kmart would mean a clearance sale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Have you seen the new pirate stuff in Kmart. It looks cool, not sure about value for money unless it's on sale, which in kmart would mean a clearance sale. Haven't built them but I love the pirate theme, and it could be an early Christmas winner. I've got 4 brick bounties at the moment, which I was able to grab for 36% off RRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED-209 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Have you seen the new pirate stuff in Kmart. It looks cool, not sure about value for money unless it's on sale, which in kmart would mean a clearance sale. I reckon they look pretty cool, but I'm biased. I was at the height of my KFOL days when the original pirates came out in 89/90. It was a massively groundbreaking theme. I still have most of the original sets, bar the ships. The blueshirt imperial soldiers and a few of the new sets (incl the brick bounty) seem to be updated variations of that first wave of pirates sets. It'll be interesting how well this rebooted theme will do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I reckon they look pretty cool, but I'm biased. I was at the height of my KFOL days when the original pirates came out in 89/90. It was a massively groundbreaking theme. I still have most of the original sets, bar the ships. The blueshirt imperial soldiers and a few of the new sets (incl the brick bounty) seem to be updated variations of that first wave of pirates sets. It'll be interesting how well this rebooted theme will do. I think that it's "fresh" enough to do good, not spectacular but good. I think it'll be a hit with the younger 6 - 8 demographic and possible AFOLs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Haven't built them but I love the pirate theme, and it could be an early Christmas winner. I've got 4 brick bounties at the moment, which I was able to grab for 36% off RRP. How did u get them for 36% off? i can only see target which is having 20% off but even so couldn't see any more in stock. maybe you add in gift cards etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alucard1982 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 How did u get them for 36% off? i can only see target which is having 20% off but even so couldn't see any more in stock. maybe you add in gift cards etc? Target had a glitch where you could stack two 20% on top of each other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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