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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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2 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

anything else?

You're right, sorry, I may have forgot to be polite.

Hello everyone !

I am really a beginner in the world of investment in Lego, I would like tips about which kits I should buy, why, when...(if you have any guides or something like this).

For example, I know that the kits that have the mention "soon retired" might be a good idea, as they will not be produced anymore (like this one https://www.lego.com/fr-fr/product/volkswagen-beetle-10252).

Is the mention "soon retired" a guarantee to make a plue-value on my investment ? How do I know this ?

 

Thanks in advance for your comments, your help, and again sorry for my first post.

Ps : I am french, please don't blame me for my english skills.

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25 minutes ago, Etskil said:

https://www.lego.com/fr-fr/product/volkswagen-beetle-10252

 

Should I buy it ? When could I hope resell it ? How much ? Thanks for your help !

And, if you have any tips on how to learn the "investment" in Lego, I would be really interested ! :D

Go watch these 5 videos first (I've only included the link to the first one, but there are 4 more). They're from the founders of this forum and it's a good introduction to investing in the hobby.

 

There are lots of people that come and go. This is not a get rich quick scheme, so don't imagine you'll turn $1000 into $100000 overnight, or even within a couple years. Yes, it's possible, but there are a lot of people competing for that same dollar.

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25 minutes ago, Etskil said:

You're right, sorry, I may have forgot to be polite.

Hello everyone !

I am really a beginner in the world of investment in Lego, I would like tips about which kits I should buy, why, when...(if you have any guides or something like this).

For example, I know that the kits that have the mention "soon retired" might be a good idea, as they will not be produced anymore (like this one https://www.lego.com/fr-fr/product/volkswagen-beetle-10252).

Is the mention "soon retired" a guarantee to make a plue-value on my investment ? How do I know this ?

 

Thanks in advance for your comments, your help, and again sorry for my first post.

Ps : I am french, please don't blame me for my english skills.

I'm in my second year at this, and I'm just starting to get something going. There is both experience and a sense of demand among buyers, but it also depends on the regions. Some sets work better, and some work worse. For example, in Russia, there are no problems with the VW 10252 set, but there are no discounts on them either. Price 94.43 euros. In Russia, although everyone knows this car, still no one really needs this set, if only at a discount of 30-50%. Again, in Russia, for example, the market is weak and poor, I have 10 sets of 42113 in perfect boxes, and in Russia no one buys them for 360-380 euros. (sorry for my English).

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I'm totally serious. This is not comparable to the last 20 years. The world, especially in this crisis, is very dynamic. I wouldn't recommend it to newbies. Period. Go buy a few ounces of Aurum & wait it out, come back later. 

Again a statement that has nothing to do with sets retiring soon, just personal advice, so let's just end it here.

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I have posted here for a long time, but read and follow this thread regularly.

As mentioned above it is not the best year to get into Lego reselling in my opinion.

I’ve been doing this 5-6 years now which is nothing in comparison to some folk on here that saw the real golden days. It has been fun, had some great sets but I have been stung with some turds but you live and learn.

Up until Feb/March this year I was getting to know the Lego sets/markets pretty well and could see trends with certain sets and themes but with Covid, supply chain issues and now relicensing ideas sets I would advise to wait this storm out.

I’ve bought less Lego this year and now 21309 and 21313 is/will be coming back I am leaving ideas alone, maybe the odd few sets here and there.

If anyone is interested in the UK, Smyths have the Death Star in stock for home delivery but Lego will probably repackage next year but thought I’d share. Tantive also in sale for last couple of weeks. It was has been in/out of stock last 24 hours so be quick.

I was expecting the rollercoaster to leave us this year but clearly it’s doing another circuit like some others.....

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3 minutes ago, Etskil said:

Alright, I will listen to your advices, and wait !

If you focus on a few blue chip, confirmed retiring in 2020, get them at 25-30% off (and tax free), and don't incur debt in the process, I can say it's a very safe investment. You should be able to get rid of beetles at $100 next year Q4 so if your buy in is 75$ its pretty safe.

Just dont go crazy amount wise and youll be fine

 

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11 minutes ago, Etskil said:

Alright, I will listen to your advices, and wait !

That's a quick retirement!  If you want to try, Set up a way to sell stuff#1 , Then buy at good discounts.  Stay Loving LEGO:) Don't go overboard right off. And man I spend A LOT OF TIME deal hunting.  And yes Beatle on retirement lists.

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11 minutes ago, Etskil said:

For this year, I will keep buying to build, not to keep ;)

If you want to both build, and profit... I suggest buying bulk lots locally and online. Building the sets, then selling them individually. 

Just look at pictures carefully, and take time to research aftermarket value of used sets. ROI on these can be astronomical... plus you can keep the things you want while still profiting. It takes more time than buying new sets, but the risk is lower as you already know the value of what you purchased. Just take a look at some of the used lots here:

 

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1 hour ago, zskid00 said:

To his point above, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.  LEGO has been a consistently good short to medium term investment, but who's to say what could happen tomorrow and plastic bricks aren't worth much if the world goes crazy. 

Based on the lockdown from earlier this year, what the people desperately need is toilet paper and LEGO.

When the 4 horsemen start riding into town, LEGO sales will surpass all prior experiences.

Edited by KShine
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Being a reseller 6 years ago is incredibly different then it is now. Every year gets worse, prices are worse, quantity restrictions, store bans, competition is worse, brand restriction and expectations from sellers are extraordinarily high.

I've had two people try to get into it this year. They asked me advice and I told them both the same thing: invest 100,000+ opening a store and practice grey market tactics. Most of the competitors you face aren't doing classic arbitrage anymore. They have hookups from retailers or are a retailer themselves and do 99% online.

You are better off learning how to trade on the stock market or developing skill with how much effort its going to take to make a few dollars.

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8 minutes ago, landphieran said:

Being a reseller 6 years ago is incredibly different then it is now. Every year gets worse, prices are worse, quantity restrictions, store bans, competition is worse, brand restriction and expectations from sellers are extraordinarily high.

I've had two people try to get into it this year. They asked me advice and I told them both the same thing: invest 100,000+ opening a store and practice grey market tactics. Most of the competitors you face aren't doing classic arbitrage anymore. They have hookups from retailers or are a retailer themselves and do 99% online.

You are better off learning how to trade on the stock market or developing skill with how much effort its going to take to make a few dollars.

What he said, 100% true. 

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10 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

The downside of stock trading is far worse than Lego trading as stocks can go to zero.

Only if you buy crap companies, have extreme bad luck,  or day trading.

I trade stocks but 90% of my holdings are long term.

So much better than reselling Lego, no  hassle with buyers / idiots like Toy-Centric, zero shipping concerns, no worries about set refreshes, & no space needed for inventory.

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