Retiring Soon - open speculation

[coelian]

3 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

LEGO has a lot of dishes spinning right now...so many new releases with extended lives on many long in the tooth sets...and still more new sets in the pipeline

It's been a crazy year and past metrics/trends simply do not apply IMO as we move into 2021.

I think LEGO, like most manufacturing/retail companies were "all in" for this current holiday season to make it as big as ever (to cover for the losses earlier this year)...probably running their lines faster than ever...to get to the finish line of this holiday season.

After the frenetic pace...a longer term outlook will settle in and I expect some fallout...being unexpected EOLs left and right.

well that's my guess

 

57 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

the mid-2021 retirees may be especially brutal...hard to fathom LEGO can keep so many sets in production with new ones released almost monthly. sure there may be some time...but as noted above; that's gonna be at full RRP w/ quantity limits

I'm just into my 2nd year of more serious selling and honestly this year has been complicated in terms of the picks. I try to use a mix of the lists and also some guesswork. Some of them didn't work out as I'd have liked for eg great halls, statue of liberty, NYC, etc but I'm ok in terms of the other HP, archi or other sets. The removal of some sets from the list is annoying and I'd had to react fast to get rid of some stuff like the Saturns and TH. Except for the diner which I had trouble getting enough of, I'm moving on to some second tier picks like the Bugatti. It's doing quite well where I live now and I'd hate to miss out on a triple of buy in prices.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

10 minutes ago, coelian said:

 

I'm just into my 2nd year of more serious selling and honestly this year has been complicated in terms of the picks. I try to use a mix of the lists and also some guesswork. Some of them didn't work out as I'd have liked for eg great halls, statue of liberty, NYC, etc but I'm ok in terms of the other HP, archi or other sets. The removal of some sets from the list is annoying and I'd had to react fast to get rid of some stuff like the Saturns and TH. Except for the diner which I had trouble getting enough of, I'm moving on to some second tier picks like the Bugatti. It's doing quite well where I live now and I'd hate to miss out on a triple of buy in prices.

the big winners are likely those no one saw coming

[raindog]

33 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

the big winners are likely those no one saw coming

Like Curiosity Rover and Town Hall.  Who saw those retiring and they are worth mad coin now.  Who predicted the Elves theme to be big sellers?  Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by raindog

[coelian]

12 minutes ago, raindog said:

Like Curiosity Rover and Town Hall.  Who saw those retiring and they are worth mad coin now.  Who predicted the Elves theme to be big sellers?  Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.

 

I have most if not all of the Elves dragons but they were for my own collection. I still remember stacks of them on clearance here back in 2018. 😢

[marcandre]

14 minutes ago, raindog said:

Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.

That was a great flip. Only disappointing if you sat on it. 

[redghostx]

Like Curiosity Rover and Town Hall.  Who saw those retiring and they are worth mad coin now.  Who predicted the Elves theme to be big sellers?  Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.
 

Elves was poised to do well because "dragons".

[landphieran]

2 hours ago, redghostx said:

3 hours ago, raindog said:

Like Curiosity Rover and Town Hall.  Who saw those retiring and they are worth mad coin now.  Who predicted the Elves theme to be big sellers?  Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.
 

Elves was poised to do well because "dragons".

Elves is doing well because its the only good girls Lego set that isn't "horses" or "sea creature"

[gmpirate]

4 hours ago, marcandre said:

That was a great flip. Only disappointing if you sat on it. 

so says that guy from overseas . . .

[Fcbarcelona101]

7 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

so says that guy from overseas . . .

Ha! Forgot about that. Wonder how that ended

[raindog]

3 hours ago, redghostx said:

4 hours ago, raindog said:

Like Curiosity Rover and Town Hall.  Who saw those retiring and they are worth mad coin now.  Who predicted the Elves theme to be big sellers?  Meanwhile the 41999 4x4 Crawler, which was a hyped "Limited Edition" keeps limping along.
 

Elves was poised to do well because "dragons".

That's kind of a "Captain Obvious" statement (not a reference to our own Capt Obvious.)  Still, knowing why a set might be popular and believing in it enough to invest in the theme are two very different things. 

[redghostx]

That's kind of a "Captain Obvious" statement (not a reference to our own Capt Obvious.)  Still, knowing why a set might be popular and believing in it enough to invest in the theme are two very different things. 

If you look at threads from back then, people believed in the elves first run. Some were also on permasale from kmart and using magic made them 70% off or better. Ah, the days of free lava and water dragons. And half price cargo trains

To add: I think the only ones that people were hesitant about was the big castle that was 50% off at many walmarts forever and the pegasus sleigh. Dragon sanctuary among others had shorter runs (elvendale school I think too) which helped, plus each dragon was only in one set.

[Phil B]

4 minutes ago, redghostx said:

7 minutes ago, raindog said:

That's kind of a "Captain Obvious" statement (not a reference to our own Capt Obvious.)  Still, knowing why a set might be popular and believing in it enough to invest in the theme are two very different things. 

If you look at threads from back then, people believed in the elves first run. Some were also on permasale from kmart and using magic made them 70% off or better. Ah, the days of free lava and water dragons. And half price cargo trains

Oh how I miss the KMart days .... in the meanwhile, this is all that's left (for shipping, if you live in a state that still has KMarts, you might find up to 35 more sets, all retired):

Edited November 18, 2020 by Phil B

[exciter1]

13 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Oh how I miss the KMart days .... in the meanwhile, this is all that's left (for shipping, if you live in a state that still has KMarts, you might find up to 35 more sets, all retired):

I took a peek there the other day too, really depressing.

[ravel]

In Russia, the problem with the sets of the JW series, even in the summer, all major chain stores ran out of sets 75937, 75934 and still no replenishment, as well as 75935 and 75938 at the end. However, there are no good discounts. 

Set 70437 disappeared everywhere, while replenishment was minimal in the summer. It seems to me that the JW series sets, as well as the 70437 castle and 70425 school will be a win-win, especially if you manage to buy it at a 50% discount.

What do you think?

[coelian]

9 minutes ago, ravel said:

In Russia, the problem with the sets of the JW series, even in the summer, all major chain stores ran out of sets 75937, 75934 and still no replenishment, as well as 75935 and 75938 at the end. However, there are no good discounts. 

Set 70437 disappeared everywhere, while replenishment was minimal in the summer. It seems to me that the JW series sets, as well as the 70437 castle and 70425 school will be a win-win, especially if you manage to buy it at a 50% discount.

What do you think?

I tried to get hold as much as I could esp with the 70437 castle since it was an extraordinarily short run. Doesn't help that I'm a castle lover myself and there has been a drought for ages with regards to castles. I'm hoping in Jan they will all go on clearance during the winter sales.

And no Nexo knights isn't castle theme. 

JW should do well, it doesn't move fast but kids like dinos. 

Edited November 18, 2020 by coelian

[ravel]

26 minutes ago, coelian said:

I tried to get hold as much as I could esp with the 70437 castle since it was an extraordinarily short run. Doesn't help that I'm a castle lover myself and there has been a drought for ages with regards to castles. I'm hoping in Jan they will all go on clearance during the winter sales.

And no Nexo knights isn't castle theme. 

JW should do well, it doesn't move fast but kids like dinos. 

If you still have 70437 in stores, you're in luck. We have in several cities in two chains for pickup from stores. I picked up the last one in my city today for$ 62. In total, I have only 3 sets, which is disappointing, since I think there will be no more receipts.

[nolan808]

28 minutes ago, coelian said:

I tried to get hold as much as I could esp with the 70437 castle since it was an extraordinarily short run. Doesn't help that I'm a castle lover myself and there has been a drought for ages with regards to castles. I'm hoping in Jan they will all go on clearance during the winter sales.

And no Nexo knights isn't castle theme. 

JW should do well, it doesn't move fast but kids like dinos. 

Castle was barely reduced here in the UK. Think the max I saw it was 20 percent off. It worries me that this theme just may be forgot and the castle will be hard to shift. 

 

[Etskil]

Hi everyone !

I'am really looking forward to invest in Lego kit, in order to keep it unopened and selled, with the objective of selling it in a few months / years.

I am from France (really sorry about my english). I don't know which kit I should look at, I am just aware that the Retiring soon category on the official Lego website is a good start.

What do you think about buying the 10252 kit (Volkswagen Coccinelle (or Bettle in english I guess) to keep it unopened and to resell it in the future ?

I may also have the 70423 Paranormal Intercept Bus 3000 in my town, what do you think ?

Thanks in advance for your advices ! 

Edited November 18, 2020 by Etskil
Translation issue

[coelian]

4 minutes ago, ravel said:

If you still have 70437 in stores, you're in luck. We have in several cities in two chains for pickup from stores. I picked up the last one in my city today for$ 62. In total, I have only 3 sets, which is disappointing, since I think there will be no more receipts.

Retail price is 129CHF so I'm not biting until I get at least 40% off locally.

2 minutes ago, raulaco said:

Castle was barely reduced here in the UK. Think the max I saw it was 20 percent off. It worries me that this theme just may be forgot and the castle will be hard to shift. 

 

I will just make a giant moc with tons of lbg parts and an army of Nehmaar Reems! Having said that I managed to move most of my Fortrexes/Knighton Castles from Nexo Knights, they were at on sales for almost 3 seasons. I think the buy in price is important to reduce the risk. 

[nolan808]

3 minutes ago, coelian said:

Retail price is 129CHF so I'm not biting until I get at least 40% off locally.

I will just make a giant moc with tons of lbg parts and an army of Nehmaar Reems! Having said that I managed to move most of my Fortrexes/Knighton Castles from Nexo Knights, they were at on sales for almost 3 seasons. I think the buy in price is important to reduce the risk. 

Lol sounds like a good plan. Yer I was hoping for a bigger reduction here but it was gone so quick, like you say buyin is key. 

I also compared it to the monster fighters castle, it's very similar overall and the monster castle here hovers around the 150 mark after many years of being retired. Hard one to judge but if it doesn't pass 150 here like the monsters themed one then it's not the best set to go for. Time will tell. 

[coelian]

2 minutes ago, raulaco said:

Lol sounds like a good plan. Yer I was hoping for a bigger reduction here but it was gone so quick, like you say buyin is key. 

I also compared it to the monster fighters castle, it's very similar overall and the monster castle here hovers around the 150 mark after many years of being retired. Hard one to judge but if it doesn't pass 150 here like the monsters themed one then it's not the best set to go for. Time will tell. 

Yes it is similar to the Vampyre Castle, the key difference is the Vampyre castle was out for a year and a half this one is out for 6 months so I'm counting on that. It is getting harder to find now.

[Sozial]

15 minutes ago, coelian said:

Yes it is similar to the Vampyre Castle, the key difference is the Vampyre castle was out for a year and a half this one is out for 6 months so I'm counting on that. It is getting harder to find now.

Just a warning: It took me some time to unload all my 9468 Castles, I wish you luck that the shorter lifespan will change what I experienced.

Edited November 18, 2020 by Sozial

[nolan808]

19 minutes ago, coelian said:

Yes it is similar to the Vampyre Castle, the key difference is the Vampyre castle was out for a year and a half this one is out for 6 months so I'm counting on that. It is getting harder to find now.

I wish you luck. I have 5 in total so I'm hoping your right.

[coelian]

Yes I'm hoping I'm right too. 😂 Anyways my mkt is small and I won't bet the bank on this, at the moment it still for fun and my day job is paying the bills. I don't think I can ever scale it up unless I can do FBA which is not possible at the moment.

[cladner]

looks like chicken coop is going.