Retiring Soon - open speculation

[elmaslıefendi]

7 minutes ago, beatpoppa said:

It's been said multiple times on here but just keeping big boxes from getting damaged is more difficult...  Amazon has deemed a greater % of my sets as "unfulfillable" this year than ever before.  I had a few Millenium Falcons, Pet shops, and Tumblers sent home in crushed boxes - this dissuades me from investing in modulars and other large box sets as much as any other factor.

Don't sell big sets on Amazon.

[brickvoyeur]

7 minutes ago, dx0520 said:

If you’re confident in those $20 sets, go for it. But by every historical metric, I’m sure you’re profitable on some, and have failed miserably on others.

With modulars, trains, and big boats, I can be near 100% certain on ROI.

But it’s not like you need to be one or the other, most people diversify, and/or hedge.

So why are you harping on PR/modular investors? 

A $20 investment on a set is generally a $40 or $50 set at retail. So if I feel like something is a miss, I can generally still turn a profit. In most cases a set just hitting retail is doubling my money.

I don't believe I was harping, but I will point out a couple facts about the previous longest lived modular.

On Amazon, your highest priced shop, you can get this today at $211.99 with free shipping. After Amazon takes their cut your cut before shipping is $180.19. Assume $15 shipping on the low end you are sitting at $165.19. Let's say you bought when Amazon was at it's lowest $111.59 according to camelcamelcamel... your profit before taxes is $53.60. Uncle Sam, and your state, surely want their cut of that. Your margin is even smaller selling in other venues.

Parisian Restaurant is a great set, but it has been "retiring" for years. Speculation happens each year, people buy more, and they sit. When it's finally gone there will be so many on the various markets that the climb will be long and slow. The same path the Pet Shop went.

The Pet Shop lasted 5.5 years, PR is coming up on 6 years. it may eventually make a nice profit, but how long will it be saturated before that profit is realized?

My original point was simply, if you are in this game for profit, there are likely going to be better places to make it.

[elmaslıefendi]

Black Friday-ing 10243's isn't a bad idea. Your example was maximal exploitation/fees. 

I probably won't buy any, I have 3 sets I focus on right now, going deep on those. PR has to be 120 or lower for me to touch it.

[dx0520]

1 hour ago, brickvoyeur said:

A $20 investment on a set is generally a $40 or $50 set at retail. So if I feel like something is a miss, I can generally still turn a profit. In most cases a set just hitting retail is doubling my money.

I don't believe I was harping, but I will point out a couple facts about the previous longest lived modular.

On Amazon, your highest priced shop, you can get this today at $211.99 with free shipping. After Amazon takes their cut your cut before shipping is $180.19. Assume $15 shipping on the low end you are sitting at $165.19. Let's say you bought when Amazon was at it's lowest $111.59 according to camelcamelcamel... your profit before taxes is $53.60. Uncle Sam, and your state, surely want their cut of that. Your margin is even smaller selling in other venues.

Parisian Restaurant is a great set, but it has been "retiring" for years. Speculation happens each year, people buy more, and they sit. When it's finally gone there will be so many on the various markets that the climb will be long and slow. The same path the Pet Shop went.

The Pet Shop lasted 5.5 years, PR is coming up on 6 years. it may eventually make a nice profit, but how long will it be saturated before that profit is realized?

My original point was simply, if you are in this game for profit, there are likely going to be better places to make it.

I’ve bought my PR at $60-70, well below RRP.

So your argument is a wash whether it’s comparing the PR or the $20.

The cost of shipment per dollar of profit is better with the PR.

You’re telling me the cost of shipping multiple small sets is cheaper than 1 large set when total profit is the same? Give me a break.

5x$20 smaall sets, sold at $40 each = $100 profit

1x$100 large set, sold at $200 = $100 profit

I’m willing to bet you my total shipping costs for that one large will be significantly smaller than the total of your small sets.

The % taken out from amazon or eBay is the same in both instances...cause uh that’s how % works.

Your cost justification for small sets don’t make sense.

As for your example with Amazon, you’re a bit disingenuous, for whatever issues you’re conveying for a large set, occurs with smaller sets too. I.E. Uncle Sam. What, you don’t think they’re going to take a slice of your profit if you sell smaller sets?

Yes, SOME small sets have performed way above expected ROI and have been really profitable. But many have failed.

My point was, small bets are a risk, you’d have to diversity and hedge significantly, hoping that the profits of winners outweigh the inventory costs and potential losses of losers.

If you’re insisting that your buy in price prevents any losses, that’s a moot point as that applies to large sets too. We’re talking when all things held equal, large sets (modulars, trains, and big boats) are 99% guaranteed successes.

[brickvoyeur]

3 minutes ago, dx0520 said:

I’ve bought my PR at $60-70, well below RRP.

So your argument is a wash whether it’s comparing the PR or the $20.

The cost of shipment per dollar of profit is better with the PR.

You’re telling me the cost of shipping multiple small sets is cheaper than 1 large set when total profit is the same? Give me a break.

5x$20 smaall sets, sold at $40 each = $100 profit

1x$100 large set, sold at $200 = $100 profit

I’m willing to bet you my total shipping costs for that one large will be significantly smaller than the total of your small sets.

The % taken out from amazon or eBay is the same in both instances...cause uh that’s how % works.

Your cost justification for small sets don’t make sense.

As for your example with Amazon, you’re a bit disingenuous, for whatever issues you’re conveying for a large set, occurs with smaller sets too. I.E. Uncle Sam. What, you don’t think they’re going to take a slice of your profit if you sell smaller sets?

Yes, SOME small sets have performed way above expected ROI and have been really profitable. But many have failed.

My point was, small bets are a risk, you’d have to diversity and hedge significantly, hoping that the profits of winners outweigh the inventory costs and potential losses of losers.

If you’re insisting that your buy in price prevents any losses, that’s a moot point as that applies to large sets too. We’re talking when all things held equal, large sets (modulars, trains, and big boats) are 99% guaranteed successes.

Super defensive...... wowzers. But wherever you grabbed modulars at 60%+ off, good on you.

That was part of the point, buy in is everything. Buying a $50 set at $20 is 60% off, which means just selling it at RRP after retirement is 250% of your buy-in. Most sets get to RRP, or above RRP, rather quickly after retirement. Exclusives rarely are available at greater than 30% off, which means you'd have to sell at 140% of RRP to double your money. Want to get up to that 250% of buy-in you saw from selling the Walmart clearance you nabbed at 60% off for RRP? You'd have to sell that 30% discount exclusive for 175% of RRP.

I'll take my 6 month hold to double my money at a minimum buying retiring sets at half off or more, and roll that into more items and watch the profits grow.

[Migration]

Same arguments different day. There is no “right” way of doing this. Also please tell of the magical $60-$70 buy in on PR?

[Migration]

We’re talking when all things held equal, large sets (modulars, trains, and big boats) are 99% guaranteed successes.

LOL.

[elmaslıefendi]

3 minutes ago, Migration said:

 

LOL.

 

What's so funny? That's a fact.

[Migration]

What's so funny? That's a fact.

Maybe an alternative one.

[elmaslıefendi]

1 minute ago, Migration said:

Maybe an alternative one.

No, I'd say an ultimate one. Or are random $20 SH sets a safe bet? Please educate me, I'm begging, master!

[bmoG]

16 minutes ago, Migration said:

Same arguments different day. There is no “right” way of doing this. Also please tell of the magical $60-$70 buy in on PR?

There is a right way to do this. It involves not caring more about your ego than your money.

Who cares if someone disagrees with you about the best money making method. If everyone did, it would no longer be true. 

This message board is fine for sharing deals and info about retirement but why would you ever care what others strategy is?

[ravenb99]

2 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

 I'm begging, master!

pretty sure the proper title to address him is Captain...

[Migration]

No, I'd say an ultimate one. Or are random $20 SH sets a safe bet? Please educate me, I'm begging, master!

As I stated earlier there is no single “right” way of doing this. However, there is a way that will give you a higher return, faster. And large exclusives like modulars, UCS etc. ain’t it. Go check the deals thread from the last couple years to see what the average buy ins were for sets available in quantity vs what those same sets are going for now. Also, don’t pick sets randomly. That’s just dumb.

[bmoG]

1 minute ago, Migration said:

As I stated earlier there is no single “right” way of doing this. However, there is a way that will give you a higher return, faster. And large exclusives like modulars, UCS etc. ain’t it. Go check the deals thread from the last couple years to see what the average buy ins were for sets available in quantity vs what those same sets are going for now. Also, don’t pick sets randomly. That’s just dumb.

Spoken like someone who doesnt want anyone else to invest in the big sets

[elmaslıefendi]

1 minute ago, bmoG said:

Spoken like someone who doesnt want anyone else to invest in the big sets

Well, he's right about anything that has the UCS stamp on the box. 

Those should only be bought 50% off, try to find that in a reasonable quantity.

[redcell]

1 hour ago, dx0520 said:

We’re talking when all things held equal, large sets (modulars, trains, and big boats) are 99% guaranteed successes.

I guess it all depends on how you are defining "success."  

38 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

pretty sure the proper title to address him is Captain...

Whether it's accurate or not, I prefer Commodore

[Migration]

Whether it's accurate or not, I prefer Commodore

[dx0520]

1 hour ago, brickvoyeur said:

Super defensive...... wowzers. But wherever you grabbed modulars at 60%+ off, good on you.

That was part of the point, buy in is everything. Buying a $50 set at $20 is 60% off, which means just selling it at RRP after retirement is 250% of your buy-in. Most sets get to RRP, or above RRP, rather quickly after retirement. Exclusives rarely are available at greater than 30% off, which means you'd have to sell at 140% of RRP to double your money. Want to get up to that 250% of buy-in you saw from selling the Walmart clearance you nabbed at 60% off for RRP? You'd have to sell that 30% discount exclusive for 175% of RRP.

I'll take my 6 month hold to double my money at a minimum buying retiring sets at half off or more, and roll that into more items and watch the profits grow.

Once again, missing the point.

We all agree that RRP matters in all cases, so no debate there.

What matters, and is the point, is when dealing with small sets, it’s about one’s personal decision on what is profitable. If you’re good at identifying them, great on you! Continue doing what you’re doing. But that still entails risks, and you know it.

Trying to unload hundreds of $20 sets if your bet is wrong is more of a headache even if you bought at 60% below RRP. For these losers, you’re likely to be incurring inventory costs beyond 6 months.

[Val-E]

The good thing about reselling lego is there are several ways to skin a cat.

If we all picked the same sets and way then no one would make money as we would saturate the market as happened with Pet Shop. Most modulars are a safe low risk investment similar to a bank deposit. Other sets or themes are more akin to betting, making a wish or high yield funds. Storage space and sales channels also count.

[Al Legorical]

13 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The good thing about reselling lego is there are several ways to skin a cat.

If we all picked the same sets and way then no one would make money as we would saturate the market as happened with Pet Shop. Most modulars are a safe low risk investment similar to a bank deposit. Other sets or themes are more akin to betting, making a wish or high yield funds. Storage space and sales channels also count.

Very true.

Wonder how many folks try to steer other folks askew? I mean, after all, we are all each other’s competition!?

Personally I see the $50-$100 sets as a good shot, a lot easier to sell 10 $100 sets @ $150-$200 than 4 $250 sets @ $375-$500 and less risk of being fleeced bigly by dishonest customers 

 

[carini26]

11 minutes ago, dx0520 said:

Once again, missing the point.

We all agree that RRP matters in all cases, so no debate there.

What matters, and is the point, is when dealing with small sets, it’s about one’s personal decision on what is profitable. If you’re good at identifying them, great on you! Continue doing what you’re doing. But that still entails risks, and you know it.

Trying to unload hundreds of $20 sets if your bet is wrong is more of a headache even if you bought at 60% below RRP. For these losers, you’re likely to be incurring inventory costs beyond 6 months.

RRP doesn't really matter.  My customers are not thinking - "Wait, what did this retail for in 2017!?!?!?"

You are buying @ a certain price expecting an acceptable return based on a myriad of factors.  For people who know what they're doing by paying attention and completing their homework, picking smaller sets that will perform well post retirement is not exactly a mystery.

 

 

 

 

[crayxlp]

@ Al Legorical

I see it the same way.  it might vary between US and EU region, but I would tend to some buy-in price 50-60 EUR (discounted set by more than 40 prct). That way you probably never suffer a loss.. you can still sell it later for the initial purchase price.

Edited November 12, 2019 by crayxlp

[crayxlp]

6 minutes ago, carini26 said:

RRP doesn't really matter.  My customers are not thinking - "Wait, what did this retail for in 2017!?!?!?"

You are buying @ a certain price expecting an acceptable return based on a myriad of factors.  For people who know what they're doing by paying attention and completing their homework, picking smaller sets that will perform well post retirement is not exactly a mystery.

 

 

 

 

you certainly have a point in your statement. I guess that most of the people just use some price comparison sites and if your offer is attractive, they buy it.. certainly noone digs in the past what was it worth "then" at the time entering the market. 

[Sfcommando14]

There is a right way to do this. It involves not caring more about your ego than your money.

Who cares if someone disagrees with you about the best money making method. If everyone did, it would no longer be true. 

This message board is fine for sharing deals and info about retirement but why would you ever care what others strategy is?

I think the issue is people speaking with opinions but pretending like they are facts. We all have strategies, but there are newbs here and opinions should be stated as such. And getting modulars for 60% off is great, but unavailable to 99% of us. My take:

 

I’ll take sub-$100 RRP sets bought at 40-75% off all day over big exclusives. When I started, everyone told me to buy exclusives. If I had, I’d still be trying to break even on Tumblers, Towers of Orthanci, Tower Bridges, and Sandcrawlers. Instead, I bought other things and have more than doubled my buying power every year since without adding any more of my own money while paying back my initial investment. Exclusives are certainly a more passive way to do this, but they are not safer and most certainly not the most efficient way to make money.

[crayxlp]

you could just annotate with "wishful thinking"