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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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It's weird, but my circuits keep suggesting not to buy any more legos for investment and instead put my money in stock - specifically anheuser busch and pabst brewing company for when the post election blues kick in for the disenfranchised.  

None of these sets, except for Wall-e look promising to me.  

Edited by fossilrock
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2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

It's weird, but my circuits keep suggesting not to buy any more legos for investment and instead put my money in stock.

fossilrock, I'm not sure if you mean that you aren't going to buy sets for investment anymore, or if you mean you will only buy specific sets, but I hear you. I haven't bought anything since March and I am really just trying to sell what I can and take a break from buying. CL is really slow going and eBay has too many fees that eat away at profit. Everyone was right when they said buying was the easy part and selling was the hard part. I don't think I'm completely done with investing but I am going to be really careful with what I buy from now on. I'm glad I didn't go too deep and crazy. If anything, I'll invest my Lego profits in precious metals and build up some cash reserves. It seems that there are too many players in the game now and some people are getting killer discounts on sets. Unfortunately,  my area Walmarts and Targets don't get the heavy discounts.  I would never find an Indominus Rex breakout set for $40 or $50. That just doesn't happen here at all. It's much harder for me to make a profit when a lot of times I have to buy at RRP. It also doesn't help that Lego has changed their game plan and how and when they retire sets. I am definitely rethinking my strategy with this whole investing thing. It's been fun, but times, they are a changin'.

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Is Lego toying with us?

I can imagine, that they retire Dr.who because of the external license, but why the heck should they retire wall-e, pixar is owned by disney and disney and lego work together earning money.

I hope I am not wrong, but the reasoning of an early EOL because of the neck Problem, doesnt make sense to me because they fixed it and still producing it.

Or they will retire it and with the new movie coming 2017/2018 they will just release the same thing without paying the guy who built the model.

Your thoughts? Investing in Wall-e seems for me to have more down- than upside.

 

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I've only purchased 3 sets since August...  It's bizarre... I was pretty excited about retirement phases last year and in previous years, but this year I'm not really ecstatic about it.  The other day, I saw Kylo's ship down to 85.00 on amazon, which a year ago I would have not hesitated and snatched 2 of them and got the weekly limit but I just clicked off the page.  I just am not finding these retirement news very exciting, and it's hard for me to do a "fools rush in" move and start going out and buying these on this list. It's following the pattern, like last year too -  Europe will get the retirement news about 4 months before us in the states, giving us here adequate time to accumulate more stock if needed.  But, what's the point?  Do I see any of these doubling in a year, or two?  No not really.  And once you start factoring in fees, shipping etc, 2x is really where you want these to be in that timeframe for the effort and storage involved, especially for large sets like the Sandcrawler.  That beast of a set will cost at least 25 shipping using fedex ground.  This set will at least need to run up to about 500.00 to make it start to become worthwhile, and i'm not sure we will see it go there..  So, I'm not sure what to say...

While all these sets are fun builds, and interesting... the problem is there are a lot of people that already have these stocked.  I think the reseller count has already surpassed it's maximum threshold, so i'll do my part by not participating for this round.   I'm still stuck on walmart's 50% clearance last april being the best deals for the year on my side of the block.  I'll stick with what I got then, and roll the dice that by next year they'll have some accruing value when they go out of stock.  However, anymore I question if they will.  The start of the selling season has been slow so far.  Next year the interest might be so tapped out, the bubble thread will turn into one of those daily lego addict support groups that will resemble something out of that one scene in fight club.

Edited by fossilrock
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44 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I've only purchased 3 sets since August...  It's bizarre... I was pretty excited about retirement phases last year and in previous years, but this year I'm not really ecstatic about it. 

You are not alone. I see SC and EW for example on good discount not moving at all from retailers. 2 years ago 20% off an exclusive they would have been picked clean in a few hours by the horde. Now weeks later here we are and nobody wants them. I think it is going to be a very different retirement season and we may see some really deep discounting by retailers to move these. I probably still won't be a buyer in volume unless things get crazy like 50-75% off. We will have to wait and see how desperate walmart/target/amazon get. Stay safe out there this brand is no longer the no risk proposition it used to be.

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5 hours ago, fossilrock said:

It's weird, but my circuits keep suggesting not to buy any more legos for investment and instead put my money in stock - specifically anheuser busch and pabst brewing company for when the post election blues kick in for the disenfranchised.  

None of these sets, except for Wall-e look promising to me.  

I am predicting a huge run on custom fit nooses and high legged chairs, whichever candidate wins. maybe Home Depot shares are worth a look.

5 hours ago, Phil B said:

Not down, but definitely not working right. "Sorry! An unexpected error has occurred. Please call customer service. (code: generic)"

Horde Attack!

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3 hours ago, Sozial said:

Is Lego toying with us?

I can imagine, that they retire Dr.who because of the external license, but why the heck should they retire wall-e, pixar is owned by disney and disney and lego work together earning money.

I hope I am not wrong, but the reasoning of an early EOL because of the neck Problem, doesnt make sense to me because they fixed it and still producing it.

Or they will retire it and with the new movie coming 2017/2018 they will just release the same thing without paying the guy who built the model.

Your thoughts? Investing in Wall-e seems for me to have more down- than upside.

 

They can´t have a 20 model IDEAS range and there are 3 more on the way so some stuff has to go. I called Ecto 1 retiring 6 months after the remake and I guess Wall-E and TBBT had 1 year deals which could be renewed but maybe final sales were not so good. If you got them on discount at Galería you should be OK but don´t pay RRP for a set with a zillion sellers and units on Bricklink and still easy to find.

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3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I've only purchased 3 sets since August...  It's bizarre... I was pretty excited about retirement phases last year and in previous years, but this year I'm not really ecstatic about it.  The other day, I saw Kylo's ship down to 85.00 on amazon, which a year ago I would have not hesitated and snatched 2 of them and got the weekly limit but I just clicked off the page.  I just am not finding these retirement news very exciting, and it's hard for me to do a "fools rush in" move and start going out and buying these on this list. It's following the pattern, like last year too -  Europe will get the retirement news about 4 months before us in the states, giving us here adequate time to accumulate more stock if needed.  But, what's the point?  Do I see any of these doubling in a year, or two?  No not really.  And once you start factoring in fees, shipping etc, 2x is really where you want these to be in that timeframe for the effort and storage involved, especially for large sets like the Sandcrawler.  That beast of a set will cost at least 25 shipping using fedex ground.  This set will at least need to run up to about 500.00 to make it start to become worthwhile, and i'm not sure we will see it go there..  So, I'm not sure what to say...

While all these sets are fun builds, and interesting... the problem is there are a lot of people that already have these stocked.  I think the reseller count has already surpassed it's maximum threshold, so i'll do my part by not participating for this round.   I'm still stuck on walmart's 50% clearance last april being the best deals for the year on my side of the block.  I'll stick with what I got then, and roll the dice that by next year they'll have some accruing value when they go out of stock.  However, anymore I question if they will.  The start of the selling season has been slow so far.  Next year the interest might be so tapped out, the bubble thread will turn into one of those daily lego addict support groups that will resemble something out of that one scene in fight club.

Totally agree. We all go through the fool phase and some of us even manage to make it out the other side one day when we see other people moving in and making even more foolish moves than we did!

If you have a large portfolio bought at decent prices and you are not selling on a high turnover, it makes little sense to keep stocking up. Sets are taking a breather so perhaps should investors to restore a  little equilibrium.  OPEC was formed for a reason.

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FWIW Rays speeder is still tagged as "new" on the EU SAH (even after a year of availability).  So the "soon" in "retiring soon" could be quite broad.
I think last year the tagged sets were done within a few weeks period.  I'd hazard that any of these sets to make it to brick Friday gets a final 20% off push (and the globe promo) and then its done (risky game if there's a set you want and hold out for my bold prediction mind :))

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Guest TabbyBoy

In the old days, at least 1 of the tagged sets would be sold out by now in the UK. It seems I bought wisely at Asda but, my Tower Bridges, and Camper Vans will have to take up epace for another decade year. You'll need to be quick at discounted retailers as little Johnny's mummy and daddy will be hitting them first, not to mention the reseller scum!

Hmmm... Do have have one last splurge?

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2 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Do not forget the general public has become wiser and smarter. All these alert sites are bad for business.

Before, sales were less wide-spread. Mostly the same sets are always discounted at multiple retailers. So no honour to get there anymore.  

Yeah, there's still a lot of suckers left, but not as much as before.

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Guest TabbyBoy
27 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Do not forget the general public has become wiser and smarter. All these alert sites are bad for business.

Before, sales were less wide-spread. Mostly the same sets are always discounted at multiple retailers. So no honour to get there anymore.  

I wonder if any set will catch us with our pants down like the Town Hall did? Eg. The Parisien Restaurant? Not the Palace Cinema as that's probably another hanger on.

As I said before, the Delorean was widely available and often on offer.

My gut tells me that Ecto1 will hit the roof first, ker-ching!, WALL-E next and then Doctor Who. I couldn't be bothered with SOH or EV as I simply don't like them and they take up space - sorry!

If the Pet Shop struggles, no more modulars for me apart from my collection.

Edited by TabbyBoy
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