Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Ed Mack]

Classic intentional misinformation campaign.

 

Allow the enemy to THINK they've broken your code.

 

ramp the TOO levels down to zero, show no no reorders, then.........UNLEASH THE HOUNDS.

 

Crank production and have anyone that ordered more than one TOO in those months dragged from their mother's house and beaten with a bag of duplo.

 

-taken from lego insider anti-reseller memo further detail [REDACTED]

Where is Alan Turing when you need him?

[mudcatsfan]

Where is Alan Turing when you need him?

 

He's dead, Ed. Alan's Dead.

[bendra1]

Personally, I never could pass the Turing test.

[Ed Mack]

He's dead, Ed. Alan's Dead.

Really?  He was just in a movie.  Damn.

[Ed Mack]

Personally, I never could pass the Turing test.

Not many of us could I would imagine.

[bendra1]

Not many of us could I would imagine.

I can't help it. I have this constant inclination to inform people of great deals on Viagra, and potential offers from Nigerian princes. It's just my nature.

Also, to get a little back on topic, I heard through the grapevine that Ewok Village may take a bow soon. But keep that under your ample supply of Lone Ranger white cowboy hats.

[biniou]

Sea cow and Tower Bridge are actually very good sellers and red 5 and PS just disappear every restock!!!!

 

Don't be fooled by the unites on the left column. They change according to figures.

The sea cow seems to sell extremely well, but if you look closely the simpsons house do sell about 3 times better, which is not obvious at a first look.

The parisian restaurant have about he same curve but the figures, again, have to be divided by 4 to be compared with the sea.

(I said "sea cow" but of course it does apply to all lego sets)

To me it just mean that:

- the simpsons house had a huge run (will it be produced again ?)

- sea cow (for instance), parisan restaurant, etc. share their production lines with some other sets

 

I can't help it. I have this constant inclination to inform people of great deals on Viagra, and potential offers from Nigerian princes. It's just my nature.

Also, to get a little back on topic, I heard through the grapevine that Ewok Village may take a bow soon. But keep that under your ample supply of Lone Ranger white cowboy hats.

Here is the funniest post of the day ! :D Edited April 2, 2015 by biniou

[Ed Mack]

I can't help it. I have this constant inclination to inform people of great deals on Viagra, and potential offers from Nigerian princes. It's just my nature.

Also, to get a little back on topic, I heard through the grapevine that Ewok Village may take a bow soon. But keep that under your ample supply of Lone Ranger white cowboy hats.

I don't wear hats, but the grapevine is often a reliable source of LEGO information.

[bendra1]

It makes sense, considering it's been around for a while and has relatively limited appeal compared to a DS or even Sandcrawler. I mean unless you're into very thorough reenactments of the Ewok Christmas special, which I am.

[Val-E]

Ecto also seems to be on its way to selling out.

 

For me, what this data allows is more precise advance planning - if you know there are 5k exosuits available and can see how fast the stock declines you can decide whether to invest in that or in another set that is closer to selling out and suspected of going EOL.

 

This data tells you how long you have to decide and the SOLD OUT TAG tells you that it is probably too late, so now all that is needed is the info on retirement dates and for that we have this thread and the what a lego employee told me today one!

[Battrax]

It makes sense, considering it's been around for a while and has relatively limited appeal compared to a DS or even Sandcrawler. I mean unless you're into very thorough reenactments of the Ewok Christmas special, which I am.

 

Do we have a COTD  (Comment of The Day) award? If we don't, we should!

[Sprocket77]

Classic intentional misinformation campaign.

 

Allow the enemy to THINK they've broken your code.

 

 

"Many Bothans died to bring us this information"

 

It's been known to happen alright

[bricketycricket]

"Many Bothans died to bring us this information"

 

It's been known to happen alright

"I'm afraid 10188 will be quite operational when the horde arrives"

[biniou]

The data for the ewok village is completely mad. Up, down, up, down (chu chu chu), it's a roller coaster.

[Neosphinx]

Pretty hard to say. It was released in September 2014, that would be only 7 months. The Red Five X-Wing is also fluctuating between out of stock and available. I don't want to jump to conclusions, but less auctions on ebay.de and higher prices (about 220

[bricketycricket]

Re: The tumbler - Those big Batman sets don't seem to have long lifespans. I don't think it's retiring "soon" but I don't think it's "later" either. Once the Tumbler celebrates its first birthday I would recommend having at least 1 to be safe. It seems like production is really sluggish for that set too - maybe they don't have a ton of capacity for making those big tires - so you probably don't want to have to play the F5 game on that one.

[Sprocket77]

You can't really pay a whole lot of heed to this data yet, because double VIP will have skewed the sales for the last couple of weeks.

[Val-E]

The final quarter would be the one to track as things must go pretty crazy then.

Edited April 2, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Foxhound]

The big difference between R5 and Tumbler is the time it is available. I believe before this, there was also a period when people thought it would retire, the tumbler that is, but then it was just a shortage of certain parts. Imo we still have some time left for the Tumbler. Because of the double VIP, I can imagine the demand for it was quite substantial too. It's no doubt a good seller so LEGO will milk it as long as they can. But like with every other set, it wouldn't hurt picking one or 2 up when the price is right.

You're right. That's the reason why I picked up 1 Tumbler when I could save 20

[Frank Brickowski]

Having analyzed those LEGO Webshop EU graphs a bit for info on exclusive sets, one could draw some conclusions like the following 10 fun/trivia facts (without liability) - if the data found there is more or less correct:

 

1.) "Is this good or bad?"

The worst selling exclusive sets in the shown timeframe of March 2015 were:

- Benny's Spaceship

- Sydney Opera House

- Architecture Studio

- Ewok Village

- Fairground Mixer

- Metal Beard's Sea Cow

- The Tower of Orthanc

So, not too much love especially for the LEGO Movie sets with Benny's Ship seemingly being THE worst selling exclusive overall in March. Now the big question is: What is better - Investing in slow sellers, so there is less competition (but also less demand) post-EOL; or investing in the big sellers, having to deal with masses of other resellers (while having more potential buyers)?

 

2.) "...if only this was less expensive"

While Sydney Opera House, Ewok Village and The Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well, they all made remarkable sale jumps in double VIP time, from which one could conclude that people merely regard them too expensive instead of generally unattractive (while the sales of the two above-mentioned Movie sets did not profit from double VIP...)

 

3.) Red 5...4...3...2...1

The EOL run for Red 5 seems to be in full swing because sales pre-2xVIP and during 2xVIP were somewhat identical and surprisingly high (for the set itself and also in relation to other SW sets)

 

4.) Too much, too late

The Exo Suit is selling pretty good, but LEGO has amassed way too much stock for a set that should have been retired one month ago - maybe they ordered that massive stock some time ago already and were not able to cancel it while realizing too late that demand was not keeping its high level (like at the introduction of the set) and so they would get way too many sets in the end.

 

5.) The "No-restockers"

While most sets got restocked 1-4 times during the period, there were 5-6 exclusives that got no restock at all - all of which are sets that were already stocked in high numbers. If this is a hint for possible EOL, I don't know. Why there are some sets stocked in very high numbers and others in rather small numbers - I also don't know. It might be a question of production capacity or/and LEGO's EOL plan.

 

6.) Old vs. New

Death Star and Sandcrawler sales seem to be OK to good and pretty much on par - potentially leading to two quite different views on the sets (Death Star being 6 years older...)

 

7.) London calling

It seems like 3+ Tower Bridges are sold for every 1 Sydney Opera House.

 

8.) Duel of the necomers

Slave 1 seems to have slightly outperformed the Detective's Office during 2x VIP looking at "sets sold per day (when in stock)".

 

9.) Investors' Nightmare

One of the worst selling non-exclusive sets is B-Wing with about 1 ("one") sold set per day in March...

 

10.) PC or PR

Palace Cinema and Parisian Restaurant look to be selling equally well, having quite similar stock numbers (during March) and having gotten 3 restocks both (in March).

[diablo2112]

Having analyzed those LEGO Webshop EU graphs a bit for info on exclusive sets, one could draw some conclusions like the following 10 fun/trivia facts (without liability) - if the data found there is more or less correct:

1.) "Is this good or bad?"

The worst selling exclusive sets in the shown timeframe of March 2015 were:

- Benny's Spaceship

- Sydney Opera House

- Architecture Studio

- Ewok Village

- Fairground Mixer

- Metal Beard's Sea Cow

- The Tower of Orthanc

So, not too much love especially for the LEGO Movie sets with Benny's Ship seemingly being THE worst selling exclusive overall in March. Now the big question is: What is better - Investing in slow sellers, so there is less competition (but also less demand) post-EOL; or investing in the big sellers, having to deal with masses of other resellers (while having more potential buyers)?

2.) "...if only this was less expensive"

While Sydney Opera House, Ewok Village and The Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well, they all made remarkable sale jumps in double VIP time, from which one could conclude that people merely regard them too expensive instead of generally unattractive (while the sales of the two above-mentioned Movie sets did not profit from double VIP...)

3.) Red 5...4...3...2...1

The EOL run for Red 5 seems to be in full swing because sales pre-2xVIP and during 2xVIP were somewhat identical and surprisingly high (for the set itself and also in relation to other SW sets)

4.) Too much, too late

The Exo Suit is selling pretty good, but LEGO has amassed way too much stock for a set that should have been retired one month ago - maybe they ordered that massive stock some time ago already and were not able to cancel it while realizing too late that demand was not keeping its high level (like at the introduction of the set) and so they would get way too many sets in the end.

5.) The "No-restockers"

While most sets got restocked 1-4 times during the period, there were 5-6 exclusives that got no restock at all - all of which are sets that were already stocked in high numbers. If this is a hint for possible EOL, I don't know. Why there are some sets stocked in very high numbers and others in rather small numbers - I also don't know. It might be a question of production capacity or/and LEGO's EOL plan.

6.) Old vs. New

Death Star and Sandcrawler sales seem to be OK to good and pretty much on par - potentially leading to two quite different views on the sets (Death Star being 6 years older...)

7.) London calling

It seems like 3+ Tower Bridges are sold for every 1 Sydney Opera House.

8.) Duel of the necomers

Slave 1 seems to have slightly outperformed the Detective's Office during 2x VIP looking at "sets sold per day (when in stock)".

9.) Investors' Nightmare

One of the worst selling non-exclusive sets is B-Wing with about 1 ("one") sold set per day in March...

10.) PC or PR

Palace Cinema and Parisian Restaurant look to be selling equally well, having quite similar stock numbers (during March) and having gotten 3 restocks both (in March).

Fantastic analysis. Post of the week. Bravo.

[LegoEdison]

Regarding #5, which 5-6 set doesn't get restock if you don't mind to share :p

[Val-E]

Restocks of ToO, DS, Camper and Red 5 today. Still taking this data with a pinch of salt but now it does correlate more with web availability as only PS and PC are on backorder.

[Frank Brickowski]

Having analyzed those LEGO Webshop EU graphs a bit for info on exclusive sets, one could draw some conclusions like the following 10 fun/trivia facts (without liability) - if the data found there is more or less correct:

 

1.) "Is this good or bad?"

The worst selling exclusive sets in the shown timeframe of March 2015 were:

- Benny's Spaceship

- Sydney Opera House

- Architecture Studio

- Ewok Village

- Fairground Mixer

- Metal Beard's Sea Cow

- The Tower of Orthanc

So, not too much love especially for the LEGO Movie sets with Benny's Ship seemingly being THE worst selling exclusive overall in March. Now the big question is: What is better - Investing in slow sellers, so there is less competition (but also less demand) post-EOL; or investing in the big sellers, having to deal with masses of other resellers (while having more potential buyers)?

 

2.) "...if only this was less expensive"

While Sydney Opera House, Ewok Village and The Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well, they all made remarkable sale jumps in double VIP time, from which one could conclude that people merely regard them too expensive instead of generally unattractive (while the sales of the two above-mentioned Movie sets did not profit from double VIP...)

 

3.) Red 5...4...3...2...1

The EOL run for Red 5 seems to be in full swing because sales pre-2xVIP and during 2xVIP were somewhat identical and surprisingly high (for the set itself and also in relation to other SW sets)

 

4.) Too much, too late

The Exo Suit is selling pretty good, but LEGO has amassed way too much stock for a set that should have been retired one month ago - maybe they ordered that massive stock some time ago already and were not able to cancel it while realizing too late that demand was not keeping its high level (like at the introduction of the set) and so they would get way too many sets in the end.

 

5.) The "No-restockers"

While most sets got restocked 1-4 times during the period, there were 5-6 exclusives that got no restock at all - all of which are sets that were already stocked in high numbers. If this is a hint for possible EOL, I don't know. Why there are some sets stocked in very high numbers and others in rather small numbers - I also don't know. It might be a question of production capacity or/and LEGO's EOL plan.

 

6.) Old vs. New

Death Star and Sandcrawler sales seem to be OK to good and pretty much on par - potentially leading to two quite different views on the sets (Death Star being 6 years older...)

 

7.) London calling

It seems like 3+ Tower Bridges are sold for every 1 Sydney Opera House.

 

8.) Duel of the necomers

Slave 1 seems to have slightly outperformed the Detective's Office during 2x VIP looking at "sets sold per day (when in stock)".

 

9.) Investors' Nightmare

One of the worst selling non-exclusive sets is B-Wing with about 1 ("one") sold set per day in March...

 

10.) PC or PR

Palace Cinema and Parisian Restaurant look to be selling equally well, having quite similar stock numbers (during March) and having gotten 3 restocks both (in March).

 

11.) Secret LEGO warehouses?

For some sets there have been multiple restocks during only 1 month (see #5) - so most of these restocks CANNOT correlate directly to production runs (2-4 production runs in 1 month? -> very unlikely; moreover many restock numbers are too small to represent a complete run). So the question is: where do these additional (small) set batches come from to go "in stock" at the LEGO Webshop? Are they stored at the production sites until Webshop stocks get low enough? Are there "other" warehouses besides factories and the Webshop stocks produced sets are being kept until they are needed?

 

What makes this "warehouse question" interesting in my view is: If/since restocks happen significantly more often than production runs, then drawing EOL/production run conclusions directly from "Out of Stock (+ date)" or "Will be available in 30 days" or "Call to check availability" or actual restocks - like many of us did before - seems a bit (more) off (than before). Because many restocks seem to be happening independently or with no direct connection to (new) production runs.

 

What one could also conclude from those regular restocks (without new runs): LEGO's storage capacity in the Webshop warehouse is obviously limited. Newer (faster selling) sets are kept there in (much) higher numbers than older (slower selling) ones. But of course there are also older sets selling quite fast for their age. Now in most cases older sets that are selling quite well ARE stocked in higher numbers while others are NOT, resulting in "Out of Stock" or more frequent restocks for them - so one could ask: Why does LEGO not just increase the Webshop storage capacity for these under-stocked (older) hot sellers? Another good question might be: why are there some sets that did not receive any restock during 1 month. Well... to put it short: One might want to look at a combination of "age of a set" + "stock level" + "units sold per timeframe" + "number of restocks" on the one hand. And on the other hand one could take a look at those non-restocked sets, too. Both cases could be hinting at EOL.

 

1.) candidates for "(high) age of a set" + "(low) stock level" + "(many) units sold per timeframe" + "(high) number of restocks" scenario:

- Death Star, VW, Palace Cinema, Red 5 (for example)

 

2.) candidates for the "non-restocked" scenario:

- Sandcrawler, Simpsons House, Benny's Spaceship, Fairground Mixer (for example)

 

All of this is for EU of course and everything is in my opinion only. I don't know how far the data is reliable and also for some sets the data is not evident enough to draw real conclusions. But if all 7 sets mentioned above will have been retired by the end of the year, well, I might have a second look at my theories (while the majority of these sets are EOL candidates anyway).

Edited April 3, 2015 by rfish

[Val-E]

I am guessing that the stock levels refer to the amounts that are reserved in warehouse for lego shop at home sales - the warehouse(s) would, in most cases, contain larger quantities destined for distribution to retailers.

 

This may explain why shop at home exclusives such as Birds or Exo are available in bigger quantities than

Edited April 3, 2015 by valenciaeric