10230 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I think in about ten years, all the modulars will be MSRP $200. Of course it will. Even inflation alone will do that, assuming a steady 3% growth. In fact, this is almost exactly what you get ($150->$200). Don't underestimate inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickDesign Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I've purchased two Pet Shop's for investment. Now the above theories are getting to me. I'm sure the post-retirement Pet Shop's will still sell for a lot of money following two or three years, or ... maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I should be buying two Palace Cinema's instead and returning my Pet Shop's? I already have two Palace Cinema's for investment, therefore bringing my current "investment collection", if you like, to 2 PS and 2 PC. Is it advisable to have what one may call a "varied" collection as such, or should I got all out on Palace Cinema's (i.e. bringing my investment collection to 4 PC alone)? I'm kind of a "beginner" Lego investor, if you like, and have not invested in modular buildings prior to this endeavour. I would greatly appreciate any help or advice. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canonikon Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 (edited) I've purchased two Pet Shop's for investment. Now the above theories are getting to me. I'm sure the post-retirement Pet Shop's will still sell for a lot of money following two or three years, or ... maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I should be buying two Palace Cinema's instead and returning my Pet Shop's? I already have two Palace Cinema's for investment, therefore bringing my current "investment collection", if you like, to 2 PS and 2 PC. Is it advisable to have what one may call a "varied" collection as such, or should I got all out on Palace Cinema's (i.e. bringing my investment collection to 4 PC alone)? I'm kind of a "beginner" Lego investor, if you like, and have not invested in modular buildings prior to this endeavour. I would greatly appreciate any help or advice. Thanks. Most exclusives stuff doesn't lose in value down the road. I would say 2 PS & 2 PC, 4 PS or 4PC, either one you'll be profiting money 2-3 years from now. If you're worried, then just get 2 of each so you don't put all your eggs in one basket. Edited March 26, 2015 by canonikon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickLegacy Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I've purchased two Pet Shop's for investment. Now the above theories are getting to me. I'm sure the post-retirement Pet Shop's will still sell for a lot of money following two or three years, or ... maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I should be buying two Palace Cinema's instead and returning my Pet Shop's? I already have two Palace Cinema's for investment, therefore bringing my current "investment collection", if you like, to 2 PS and 2 PC. Is it advisable to have what one may call a "varied" collection as such, or should I got all out on Palace Cinema's (i.e. bringing my investment collection to 4 PC alone)? I'm kind of a "beginner" Lego investor, if you like, and have not invested in modular buildings prior to this endeavour. I would greatly appreciate any help or advice. Thanks. Diversification is almost always a good idea. There are some slam dunk investments like the Haunted House and SSD, but those don't come by often. I think you are off to a great start with 2 PS and 2 PC. If you are focusing on exclusives, do some research on what else you think might retire next (Red Five, TOO, Sea Cow, Ewok Village, and a handful of others seem to be popular choices). Keep your market in mind when making that decision. Modulars are safe investments whereas Star Wars and Lord of the Rings could be a difficult sale in some parts of the world and hot in others. I think you are off to a great start. Remember, it will require a lot of patience to see substantial returns on most sets, including some exclusives. Good luck and don't be afraid to ask questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 PS and PC are both excellent choices. Keep both. A very good sign is that both of these are in the $200-$210 range every time they're hard to get at MSRP from other sources. It's more likely that PS is going to retire first, but that's not a 100% assured thing. Either will do well post EOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostDad Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 @10230: Where in the developed world is inflation running at or even near 3%? It's almost zero in the Eurozone, and around 1% in the US. Lego price increases have wildly exceeded the rate of inflation for the past several years, after a long period before that in which average price per piece and price per pound (or kg, if you prefer) remained fairly stable. I think this makes perfect sense for Lego, but it's bad for investors since it narrows the gap between MSRP and what a retired set is 'worth' in the secondary market. I've noticed this with CMF for example. At an MSRP of $3 per figure, prices tended to stabilize at around $250 per case in the secondary market post EOL. And at an MSRP of $4 per figure, they still do. So resellers pay more wholesale and resell for the same price six months to a year later, which is bad. At the same time, modular weights and piece counts are falling, while sticker use (in place of printed pieces) is rising (for other sets too; 6212 has a printed cockpit, but 10240, the UCS version, does not, just to cite one nutty example) and MSRP climbs by $10. Over time, this stuff adds up, and it's something every investor should keep an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickDesign Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Thanks for the help canonikon, BrickLegacy and diablo2112. I think, as canonikon mentioned, I'd rather not put all my eggs in one basket. Therefore, I'll keep my current investment inventory as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enotoga Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The PC has an asian design element (think Manns Chinese Theatre) that definately didn't resonate with me. The first time I saw one in person I was underwhelmed. I think a lot of people are passing on PC because they have choices, many choices, at Lego.com, and PC just doesn't hit the sweet spot for many people. Same thing happened with TH. It wouldn't surprise me at all if PC retires before PS. Is it my imagination or has Lego has taken a major step in responding to investor demand by dramatically increasing the number of high dollar offerings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The PC has an asian design element (think Manns Chinese Theatre) that definately didn't resonate with me. The first time I saw one in person I was underwhelmed. I think a lot of people are passing on PC because they have choices, many choices, at Lego.com, and PC just doesn't hit the sweet spot for many people. Same thing happened with TH. It wouldn't surprise me at all if PC retires before PS. Is it my imagination or has Lego has taken a major step in responding to investor demand by dramatically increasing the number of high dollar offerings? Technically, the number of high dollar offerings decreased, given the mass retirement of several high profile exclusives Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricketycricket Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The PC has an asian design element (think Manns Chinese Theatre) that definately didn't resonate with me. The first time I saw one in person I was underwhelmed. I think a lot of people are passing on PC because they have choices, many choices, at Lego.com, and PC just doesn't hit the sweet spot for many people. Same thing happened with TH. It wouldn't surprise me at all if PC retires before PS. Is it my imagination or has Lego has taken a major step in responding to investor demand by dramatically increasing the number of high dollar offerings? PC has been back ordered at LEGO Shop at Home lately and poofs whenever it hits Amazon. Prior to this year it has generally been well stocked but that's not unusual for a newer modular that isn't widely perceived to be on the chopping block. Don't try to infer any sales data from your personal opinion of the set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10230 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 @10230: Where in the developed world is inflation running at or even near 3%? It's almost zero in the Eurozone, and around 1% in the US. You are probably right about the current rate, but the time window that was asked for was 10 years. That is an incredibly long time to predict. Regardless of what is happening right now, a long-term average percentage of 2-3% doesn't sound unreasonable. It is about what it has been for a long time - with ups and downs. Am I wrong? Maybe. I just think that 3% is more probable then 0%-1%. Maybe it will be somewhere in the middle. It is all a bit of speculation, and everyone has their own take on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 (edited) @10230: At the same time, modular weights and piece counts are falling, while sticker use (in place of printed pieces) is rising. AFAIK, PC is the only modular with stickers. DO had a glorious amount of printed parts, including fantastic printed *windows* for both the pool hall and the Detective Agency itself, and piles of small printed parts all over the set. Also, the first set with a real mirror. IMHO, PR and DO are the best modulars yet, and my 2 favorite; I've owned them all. Regarding piece counts: GE: 2182 PS: 2032 PC: 2196 PR: 2469 DO: 2262 I don't see a major trend, and if there is one, it's an *increase* in pieces in recent sets. Edited March 28, 2015 by diablo2112 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostDad Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Some good points there. Regarding stickers, I was unclear in my post. The stickers are popping up more and more in exclusives generally (10240 and 10241, for example), and builders seem to hate them, but I'm glad to hear they aren't showing up more in modulars. As far as modular piece counts are concerned, there was a drop of about 10% from 10197 to 10218, but they do seem to have come up since then. So I stand corrected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balmer1995 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Hi I bought two tower bridge sets last year thinking they would retire agter Christmas but they are still for sale. Anyone know when that will change?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iahawks550 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Hi I bought two tower bridge sets last year thinking they would retire agter Christmas but they are still for sale. Anyone know when that will change?? No. Pretty much this. No one on this site can do anything but speculate and make their own guesses as to a retirement date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freakchem Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 You guys reminds me of cleaning my moldy TB down in the basement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxhound Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The Tumbler (76023) is out of stock at lego.de. The number of sets to buy is also restricted to 1 (but for several months). They will ship the next copies in a week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neosphinx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The Tumbler (76023) is out of stock at lego.de. The number of sets to buy is also restricted to 1 (but for several months). They will ship the next copies in a week. So you are sugesting it will retire soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10230 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 So you are sugesting it will retire soon? Yesterday I would have said "yes". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxhound Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 So you are sugesting it will retire soon? Pretty hard to say. It was released in September 2014, that would be only 7 months. The Red Five X-Wing is also fluctuating between out of stock and available. I don't want to jump to conclusions, but less auctions on ebay.de and higher prices (about 220 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Just been fiddling about with the new brickset lego shop stock availability graphs - if that info is accurate it will be of great help in predicting OOS/EOL and also for flipping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Just been fiddling about with the new brickset lego shop stock availability graphs - if that info is accurate it will be of great help in predicting OOS/EOL and also for flipping. Interesting... where do you find these graphs? Under the buy tab? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 (edited) yes, this is a complete game changer! Data is only valid for europe, apparently. Now we can see how well Edited April 2, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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