exciter1 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Yeah, the Tracked Cranes were/are good investments. I just recently sold the last of mine. Can't remember the buy-in off hand on these from TRU. $22 or was it $11? Idk, but quick flips they were . . . I bought a bunch of them for around $11 on their massive Technic clearance deal and using 10% off, plus Wendy's coupons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinetu Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) Quick question for you folks (actually two...): I have purchased a 9398 today in a shop (!) in The Netherlands for 170 euros (box in excellent condition), do you think I'd be able to hit even 50% ROI by Christmas? Second question is slightly off-topic, but I saw it was extensively discussed here: the shop also had two Unimogs for 190 euros, but the boxes had extensive shelf wear (they were horizontal on the lowest shelf, I can only imagine the number of people who withdrew/return it, rubbing it against the shelf...), but no punctures, would you go for it? Seals seemed fine, slightly less tight due to heat perhaps, but nowhere near pealing off. My logic is that if Unimog's true target group is really Technic AFOL enthusiasts, they might not care that much about the state of the box? Your two cents? Edited April 8, 2015 by Vinetu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Question 1: yes Question 2: if it is for personal build, go ahead. If it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinetu Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Question 1: yes Question 2: if it is for personal build, go ahead. If it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) One thing that should elevate the 4x4 Crawler in terms of CAGR even more compared to other Technic sets: As far as I can see it is (besides the Limited Edition version) the ONLY Technic Flagship RC-NAVIGABLE model (ever?) that is NOT a construction vehicle or truck. That being said, it's not too hard to imagine for me that an RC-controlled actual sports car would (also) perform very well (like a Technic Ferrari F40 instead of the upcoming model which is likely to be a Creator one, but who knows...). Edited April 8, 2015 by rfish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) I think I'll pass on the Unimog, just read the dedicated thread, it seems that the thing is hoarded and besides, another Mercedes makes an appearance this summer... The 8110 Unimog needs its time, but will have a steady growth over the next couple of years (compare it to other big Technic sets). I keep mine for at least another 2 years before selling! And I think the appearance of another Mercedes set has absolutely no negative influence on the Unimog (better: it even helps in increasing its value). Weak argument IMO... had the realease of a Star Wars set any influences on another (here: decrease in value?) (if it was no re-release or similar model!)? Edited April 8, 2015 by Ensche Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) One thing that should elevate the 4x4 Crawler in terms of CAGR even more compared to other Technic sets: As far as I can see it is (besides the Limited Edition version) the ONLY Technic Flagship RC-NAVIGABLE model (ever?) that is NOT a construction vehicle or truck. That being said, it's not too hard to imagine for me that an RC-controlled actual sports car would (also) perform very well (like a Technic Ferrari F40 instead of the upcoming model which is likely to be a Creator one, but who knows...). I think this works against 9398. Kids can get an RC truck anywhere, including the Mall kiosk and the dollar store, at a tiny fraction of the MSRP of 9398. Have you built 9398? I did and was very unimpressed. They tried to do something with Lego that's simply better done by other means. The build was boring, it looked garish, and performance was a joke. Non-proportional steering, slow (crawler, indeed), and can't use it outside. I was highly unimpressed. I'll stick to the more unique Technic flagships. 8043 has been a stellar performer, it's at the $500 mark currently. 42009 is perhaps the best Technic model ever made, just an amazing build. 5-way gearbox, gorgeous final model. At $150 shipped from Amazon UK, this will triple in value within 2 years of EOL. Edited April 8, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Yup, but those exclusive balloon tyres and power functions make it attractive to a wider audience than the real hardcore models. 42030 also seems to be disappointing in terms of build but have a sneak feeling it and 9398 will do just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) I agree 42030 is a disappointing build. The only thing going for it is the big scoop and the large tires. The tires in 9398 are available in cheaper sets, a number of them (8284 and dirt-cheap as part of 8118). Edited April 8, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) I think this works against 9398. Kids can get an RC truck anywhere, including the Mall kiosk and the dollar store, at a tiny fraction of the MSRP of 9398. Have you built 9398? I did and was very unimpressed. They tried to do something with Lego that's simply better done by other means. The build was boring, it looked garish, and performance was a joke. Non-proportional steering, slow (crawler, indeed), and can't use it outside. I was highly unimpressed. I'll stick to the more unique Technic flagships. 8043 has been a stellar performer, it's at the $500 mark currently. 42009 is perhaps the best Technic model ever made, just an amazing build. 5-way gearbox, gorgeous final model. At $150 shipped from Amazon UK, this will triple in value within 2 years of EOL. The argument of "you can get this or that anywhere" is valid in theory for most LEGO sets, yet in practice it is not. I mean you can buy alternatives for pretty much everything Lego is offering in another form at (much) lower prices, be it Star Wars ships, houses, trains, cars or whatever. But for LEGO fans/buyers (which are several million people around the world) it is very relevant if there is a LEGO logo on the box or not. And isn't this THE main reason why the whole investing hobby is working at all? They buy the Crawler, for instance, not because it is an RC model but because it is an RC model from LEGO. LEGO fans stick to LEGO products. It's a little bit comparable to Apple devices. Who would seriously pay $1000 for a smartphone? Happens all the time! In many cases people are not rational when buying Apple or LEGO. They don't really care about the price. There are not many companies with an extraordinary image/reputation/following like LEGO or Apple. You made your point about the weaknesses of the Crawler in your opinion, but why is it rising in value so fast then? Seems like many people have another opinion on the set, so there are obviously other more important pro points to them than the weaknesses you mentioned. What is your theory on that rise in value (compared to for example the Unimog)? And what would you say, why is the Unimog underperforming in your opinion? Edited April 8, 2015 by rfish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) My opinion is that 9398 has been a dog and prices are depressed. The BP index price for 9398 is $232, compared to MSRP at $200. That's terrible for a flagship set 4 months out from EOL, it had no post-EOL bump. CAGR is a pathetic 5%, the worst retired Technic Flagship CAGR in the history of BP. Average eBay sales prices are $200-$250 for this set, no different than the last 3 months it was in stock. Some March auction sales of sealed, new 9398s failed to reach MSRP. In comparison, GE retired at the same time, and it's over $300 now (2x MSRP). Another clue is prices of complete, used set sales. Once prices for complete, used sets move above original MSRP, you know the set is starting to sell and take off with end users, not hoarders who missed the boat. Auction sales of complete, mint, used 9398s are in the $170 range, terrible performance compared to other sets at this time from EOL (for reference, used GEs go for $250, 60% above MSRP). It's 4 months out from EOL, and hasn't really had any post-EOL bump. It may appreciate in the future, but performance to date has been disappointing. I had a feeling about this set, for reasons I mentioned. I didn't move into this for those reasons. This coon don't hunt. You made your point about the weaknesses of the Crawler in your opinion, but why is it rising in value so fast then? Why, exactly, do you think the value is rising so fast? As shown above, at this stage, it's the worst performing Technic flagship set in the history of BP. Unimog (8110) is no 8043, but its doing fine. BP index price is $298, and CAGR is 10%, twice the performance of the Creepy Crawler. I didn't care for Unimog, either. Too European for US tastes. I like straight-up yellow construction flagships. 8043 is a star, and 42009 will kill. Even 42030, with a less than stellar build, will outperform 9398. Edited April 8, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Forgot to add, so many investors are dumping 9398 post-EOL, that the $179 Brickset price today is below MSRP. The Brickset CAGR is -3.6%. And all those eBay and Amazon sales at $180-$225 are netting less than MSRP, after fees. All of this data sets new lows for a Technic Flagship set. I don't see where you get the statement that "it is rising in value so fast". Care to elaborate? Now 41999, that's a different story. Chrome parts, 100% better looks, great box, and 20,000 unit limited edition. It's close to double MSRP, due to limited supply and those unique parts. At least 41999 looks unique and displays well, unlike 9398. 9398 was oversold, an underwhelming build, had cartoon stickers and colors which looked out of place on a Technic flagship, and had other defects noted above. Most of the experienced investors I know either avoided this set or bought at huge discount from MSRP and are now unloading at MSRP or slightly above. They've figured out it's unlikely there's long term value here, better to off load and restock (with 42009, IMHO). Edited April 9, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldilocks Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 But with a buy in of 112 a 250 sale is not bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 But with a buy in of 112 a 250 sale is not bad True. 9398 is the Hobbit Barrel Escape of Technic Flagships. Buy at half off, sell at MSRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emazers Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Alot of us have gotten the 9398 for about $120-130, Tru $160 with the 20% Coupon and 10% Thursday and whatever other rewards you had so I got my 24 for those prices, so for me they are a winner, now if you paid $160-200 well you will have a longer wait to make some money. Now on the 42009 Crane with all the Double VIP Points I got, I been paying between $85 and $100 using Double Points, so I will have 10 Cranes for paying cash and using Double Points. For $85-$100 Ed Edited April 9, 2015 by emazers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) The Mk II Crane is a very good buy at $150 shipped from Amazon UK. Edited April 9, 2015 by diablo2112 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quacs Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Remember that the typical Technic set doesn't increase in value as quickly as other sets - this could partially explain the lack of bump. I also think 9398's earning potential was probably damaged by the introduction of the vastly superior 41999. With the right buy in, 9398 will pay off. It will just take some time to mature... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Brickowski Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 My opinion is that 9398 has been a dog and prices are depressed. The BP index price for 9398 is $232, compared to MSRP at $200. That's terrible for a flagship set 4 months out from EOL, it had no post-EOL bump. CAGR is a pathetic 5%, the worst retired Technic Flagship CAGR in the history of BP. Average eBay sales prices are $200-$250 for this set, no different than the last 3 months it was in stock. Some March auction sales of sealed, new 9398s failed to reach MSRP. In comparison, GE retired at the same time, and it's over $300 now (2x MSRP). Another clue is prices of complete, used set sales. Once prices for complete, used sets move above original MSRP, you know the set is starting to sell and take off with end users, not hoarders who missed the boat. Auction sales of complete, mint, used 9398s are in the $170 range, terrible performance compared to other sets at this time from EOL (for reference, used GEs go for $250, 60% above MSRP). It's 4 months out from EOL, and hasn't really had any post-EOL bump. It may appreciate in the future, but performance to date has been disappointing. I had a feeling about this set, for reasons I mentioned. I didn't move into this for those reasons. This coon don't hunt. Why, exactly, do you think the value is rising so fast? As shown above, at this stage, it's the worst performing Technic flagship set in the history of BP. Unimog (8110) is no 8043, but its doing fine. BP index price is $298, and CAGR is 10%, twice the performance of the Creepy Crawler. I didn't care for Unimog, either. Too European for US tastes. I like straight-up yellow construction flagships. 8043 is a star, and 42009 will kill. Even 42030, with a less than stellar build, will outperform 9398. Well, I was talking from a EU point a view for Crawler as well as Unimog - like the two fellow Brickpickers did in their posts before yours. In the EU the picture is the direct opposite: Crawler going up strong and Unimog underperforming. My pov was based on this situation. Why it is opposite in the US I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Remember that the typical Technic set doesn't increase in value as quickly as other sets - this could partially explain the lack of bump. I also think 9398's earning potential was probably damaged by the introduction of the vastly superior 41999. ...There's some truth to this but it's not always the case. Desirable Technic sets have gotten nice EOL bumps and increased quickly. 41999 has doubled fast, and 42006 has seen an 50% EOL bump in the last 3 months. 42000 got a decent bump as well. Edited April 9, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quacs Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 41999 was a bit of a special case with it announced as being limited, so I would consider it an outlier. I haven't typically seen the big "double-your-money in three month" spikes with big Technic sets like you do with other large sets, but that doesn't mean it doesn't or will not happen. I wouldn't bank on it when investing though - these are almost always on slow-boil... I've seen big spikes happen to smaller Technic sets with more frequency - see Tracked Crane and Moto Cross Bike for two recent sets that increased quickly. FWIW, using eBay's recent sales as a data point, Crawler is up 20-25% in the first four months of retirement ($50>MSRP), so it has seen a mini-spike. I expect it to grow slowly, but have a lower ceiling than 41999. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makr Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Quick question for you folks (actually two...): I have purchased a 9398 today in a shop (!) in The Netherlands for 170 euros (box in excellent condition), do you think I'd be able to hit even 50% ROI by Christmas? 9398 had one of the best post EOL bumps of a (non LE) Technic model. But I don't think it will grow that much from now on. It's not exactly the most collectible Set out there and the biggest part of the price (at least pre EOL) was due to the included PF elements that are still widely available. At 170 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinetu Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Well folks, there are some interesting points made, thanks, it's much appreciated! I just wished we could see similar sold listings for EU as we can see for US here on BP. Right now, I'm facing a dilemma, I found some ~10 Excavators (42006) for 66 Edited April 9, 2015 by Vinetu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Your excavators have a higher than RRP buy in which is a big no-no for Technic (most people will have got it for 55 or less). If I had to choose, I would go with the Crawlers all the way because you are 15% below RRP. However, at those prices, neither makes a lot of sense to me from an investment POV. Edited April 9, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinetu Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Well, actually here in Holland RRP was 69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Amazon prices are the most inflated due to commissions -you can see 10221 SSDs at 900 euros when on eBay they are not selling for more than 600. It Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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