10249 - Winter Toy Shop

[ravenb99]

That's my boy!

gotta get you some HD Gif's

 

[exciter1]

gotta get you some HD Gif's

I know, I wanted words.  There should be entire sections of the Internet dedicated to Blue and protected by the NSA.

[Alpinemaps]

This thinking of reissues I agree with. I will buy one to build along with a free promo. Outside of that forget it. This includes any remakes, like sandcrawler. I won't touch them. This also affirms that Lego is more of a mid term investment, rather than long term due to this risk and time decay. This is also why I don't have any red 5's. No remakes for me, no matter if it is a little better. It undermines the business.

I will feel guilty buying one of these. I would have been happy paying secondary market prices for it. This is the only winter set I haven't bought yet (bakery and post office I bought after EOL).

I don't blame you if you don't have this set, and you want to buy one.  If I hadn't BL'ed my own, I would be buying one. 

This is a flat out re-issue.  Sandcrawler, or Star Destroyers or AT-ATs - those are remakes.  As long as they aren't remaking them every year, then I say go for it.  Lego has shown itself to be innovative.  I think if you look at Millenium Falcons throughout the years (*) you'll discover that they've grown and changed and each one has been something new and exciting.  I don't mind seeing innovation like that.  Evolution is good.

* I have a beef with 75105, imo, is 7965 with some small changes/improvements and different minifigs.  I would have liked to see something a little more radically different.  Otherwise, I stand by my statement about MFs throughout the years.

[Dr. Brick]

I have ten of he old ones and just ordered 4 of the new ones and will get another 6 in time. I strongly believe the Winter village sets should be part of any investors portfolio. I have 10 of each of the Winter Village and have been holding long term. Much better than most City sets

[Rodeogeorge]

hoarders aren't investors...

This is getting deep.

[tacsniper]

I didn't buy the original so I bought this set today. With many new/returning to Lego this will be selling like hot cakes because not everyone owns the original.

[justapilgrim]

I have ten of he old ones and just ordered 4 of the new ones and will get another 6 in time. I strongly believe the Winter village sets should be part of any investors portfolio. I have 10 of each of the Winter Village and have been holding long term. Much better than most City sets

Poke the bear

[Ciglione]

Well.... if the boycott, angry phonecalls, mad emails, not buying any and poking holes does not work I will capitulate.

I will buy the crap out of them! and return them within 89 days.

 

[Ed Mack]

The Sandcrawler remake is fine. It's a much improved version over the old set. I expect LEGO to produce quality products like that. The Red 5 wasn't needed because the 7191 was an iconic set, but I could live with it. The Toy Shop is laziness in my opinion, or an experiment. As I have stated before, LEGO needs to be careful here. Scaring off the collectors and resellers with exact duplicates will damage the secondary market, which will in turn damage the primary market. Do you really think it's a coincidence that The LEGO Group's profits started increasing at the same time eBay's growth was exploding? When people realized a LEGO set was a valuable collectible, the company's profits skyrocketed. It might take some time, but corporate profits will be hurt if LEGO continues down this path.

[Fcbarcelona101]

I don't like the way LEGO went about this set, but still plan to get a couple. We'll see where this goes.

[biking_tiger]

 

 

The Sandcrawler remake is fine. It's a much improved version over the old set. I expect LEGO to produce quality products like that. The Red 5 wasn't needed because the 7191 was an iconic set, but I could live with it. The Toy Shop is laziness in my opinion, or an experiment. As I have stated before, LEGO needs to be careful here. Scaring off the collectors and resellers with exact duplicates will damage the secondary market, which will in turn damage the primary market. Do you really think it's a coincidence that The LEGO Group's profits started increasing at the same time eBay's growth was exploding? When people realized a LEGO set was a valuable collectible, the company's profits skyrocketed. It might take some time, but corporate profits will be hurt if LEGO continues down this path.

 

+1 for the eBay reference (and the rhetorical device). 

This is usually how every top company shoots itself in the proverbial foot. I hope Lego has enough long term view to understand the aforementioned "ramifications" for their own company. In the short term, they'll sell a crap ton, even if BP could actually pull of a boycott. But I guess we'd see how much we actually impact TLG's behavior either way...

Edited September 18, 2015 by biking_tiger

[cladner]

 

If what we as resellers and uber-brickheads think or do the first 3 months of a seaonsal set's limited life makes a difference in TLG behavior because of significant dent in sales, we are all Ponzi-level screwed.

this is an example that buying and holding isn't always the best investing plan.  look at any asset class.  timing is everything in buying and selling.

this is another example of the CHAOS we have been living with and just another curveball to help keep the game interesting.

I understand that except for the updated wreaths (which look much better), this is a complete knock off of their own set.  I understand that there will still be money to be made and can't let fandom or perceived slighting get in front of profit.  Hey at least now I wouldn't expect re-issuing of this set for a few years so if anything as an investor you could dump money in here.  

If you're holding other older winter village sets, this might be the year to take your profit.

 

 

[feed]

Tragedy of the commons. 

[KShine]

 

 

The Sandcrawler remake is fine. It's a much improved version over the old set. I expect LEGO to produce quality products like that. The Red 5 wasn't needed because the 7191 was an iconic set, but I could live with it. The Toy Shop is laziness in my opinion, or an experiment. As I have stated before, LEGO needs to be careful here. Scaring off the collectors and resellers with exact duplicates will damage the secondary market, which will in turn damage the primary market. Do you really think it's a coincidence that The LEGO Group's profits started increasing at the same time eBay's growth was exploding? When people realized a LEGO set was a valuable collectible, the company's profits skyrocketed. It might take some time, but corporate profits will be hurt if LEGO continues down this path.

 

First, your arguments are largely correct. This is also part of what I would consider the downward spiral. When I speak of quality standards, I am not only referring to the quality of materials, etc - I am also referring to the quality standards of judgement (which are also in decline).

But just as you mentioned that the only people who would complain about the quality of materials, etc. are being anal and not reflective of the vast majority, that opinion would also apply to the remakes. The vast majority of LEGO lovers will have no problem with remakes.

Saying that LEGO is wrong to not have the long term consequences (which are debatable) in mind does seem a bit hypocritical.

Whats good for LEGO is good for them - and they have every right to do it, regardless of the consequences (just as BP does).

[citymorgue]

I think you guys could possibly overestimate your effect on one set guys.  I honestly think that big time investors are a very very small percentage of the overall selling volume for Lego.  The general customer is going to be buying these in droves.  I know it's going to be a huge success no matter what you big investors decide to do on this set.

I don't understand everyone's ridiculous notion about the possible impending doom and gloom.  Over the last couple of years, they are still constantly producing new and innovative sets.  Out of the hundreds of sets they release in a single year, are you guys seriously that paranoid about even possibly a handful of re-issues/re-makes?  It's a little dramatic if you ask me.  And besides, in the grand scheme of things re-issues can be a good move for themselves because they've already made all their money.  If they re-release a similar 10179 with some update techniques, I don't care much about the secondary market, Lego is getting my money. (And that includes other older sets as well.)

Also one final note: Who here honestly believes that there will be this huge boycott amongst all you investors???  Like someone said earlier, money can do interesting things to people.  I'm willing to put money on the fact that a good chunk of you are going to secretly buy up sets thinking no one else will and you will be one of the few who have them hoping for bigger returns.  But I'm sure more than enough of you will do that and negate it anyways.

[dcdfan]

Since some newer members or people who have missed out on some older sets don't grasp the ramifications of this set. Instead thinking, yes, I welcome a 10179 (MF), 10181 (ET), 10189 (TAJ) or 10196 (GC) 'cause I don't have one. There's absolutely nothing wrong in wanting a second chance to purchase them. Absolutely! But think for a minute what if Lego were to release a new GE or HH, TH or BTTF (or any other set that you have invested in) in a couple of years? If you think it doesn't or won't affect you, I think you're kidding yourself. Do you think the buyers of the sets you've decided to bank on or at the very least simply purchase & build will want to pay top dollar later for that set? I think you're sadly mistaken. Every buyer will have in the back of their mind "I'll just wait for the re-release." This release devalues every other set whether you think so or not. I'm not saying don't buy it. People will buy it. I will not be buying it.

[exciter1]

I don't understand everyone's ridiculous notion about the possible impending doom and gloom.

I'm actually more worried about their mindset for releasing an Angry Birds theme.  Who made this decision?

[Ciglione]

I think you guys could possibly overestimate your effect on one set guys.

You forgot about Exo-Suit?

[Darth_Raichu]

I'm actually more worried about their mindset for releasing an Angry Birds theme.  Who made this decision?

Not sure, but I am more afraid of the possibilities of LEGO Candy Crush Saga.in the near future

 

[justapilgrim]

Whoever has built this, isn't $80 a lot for a small house, tree and some minifigures no one cars about? I like SW a lot more and $10 less

[biking_tiger]

Not sure, but I am more afraid of the possibilities of LEGO Candy Crush Saga.in the near future

 

What, you don't need more translucent red/green/yellow/etc. studs? Think how many "extras" you'd get in that set.

[Darth_Raichu]

What, you don't need more translucent red/green/yellow/etc. studs? Think how many "extras" you'd get in that set.

No thanks.  The last thing I need is my bricks fused to a ball whenever I stack or line up 5 or more of them

[gregpj]

You forgot about Exo-Suit?

In the absence of real information about who purchased the initial batch and that indeed LEGO had never planned to make more this is pure speculation (stating the obvious I know :)).

While I somewhat agree that places like eBay have an impact on prices, the internet as a whole has completely changed the way "shopping" and "collecting" work. Anybody who's in the 30-40 year age range and didn't notice it should take their head out of their ass. Prior to the internet, market places such as eBay and Amazon didn't exist. There was no way for companies such as LEGO (and other large toy makers) to successfully market their products to a world wide audience. They had to rely on B&M stores which didn't exist everywhere or carry the same products or _____, etc.

Back when the original Toy Shop was released online shopping was just starting it's meteoric climb (google growth in online shopping if you need facts). Of course everyone wants to know who those new people are and the fact is that it's a ton of middle class people from wealthier countries but it also includes a little bit of everyone from everywhere else. LEGO would be fools to not experiment and try to capitalize on what is essentially a new market for those older sets and they have regularly in recent years with awesome remakes of older sets (Sandcrawler, Technic MKII, Ferris Wheel) and even turning some nicer old sets into UCS models (Slave 1, Tie Fighter).

Unless LEGO goes all in on re-releasing iconic sets in a predictable way or they get lazy and do 3-4 in a single year I think the worry is entirely overblown. And if I'm wrong, LEGO investing is a risk we are all taking. Those who choose to buy and hold for 5-10-20 years post retirement are taking the biggest risk. If you're trying to squeeze every last nickel of profit (as frankly it seems a number of people do) you've only yourself to blame. If you hoard and don't have a plan for selling then you've chosen to increase your risk and you've only yourself to blame. We all know there are dozen/hundreds/thousands of people out there happy to make $2 on a sale... I'm not one of them but I know I don't need to make 5x on every set to be successful with my own plan.

 

[biking_tiger]

 

Unless LEGO goes all in on re-releasing iconic sets in a predictable way or they get lazy and do 3-4 in a single year I think the worry is entirely overblown. And if I'm wrong, LEGO investing is a risk we are all taking. Those who choose to buy and hold for 5-10-20 years post retirement are taking the biggest risk. If you're trying to squeeze every last nickel of profit (as frankly it seems a number of people do) you've only yourself to blame. If you hoard and don't have a plan for selling then you've chosen to increase your risk and you've only yourself to blame. We all know there are dozen/hundreds/thousands of people out there happy to make $2 on a sale... I'm not one of them but I know I don't need to make 5x on every set to be successful with my own plan.

 

Well said. I'm still concerned about LEGO damaging its brand, but I'm sure not as concerned as LEGO.

When it comes to investing and turnover, I've built a plan I"m comfortable with--holding for 1-2 years maximum and only buying if I can make 50-100% over MSRP (or my buy-in cost) in that time. So far, so good, but I've only been back at the table for about a year and a half. My strategy also involves buying sets of varying sizes and varying themes and at varying discounts. I'm moderately risk averse or risk tolerant, depending on your point of view. Again, it's my strategy and won't work for everyone, but not having any strategy is signing up for failure.

The Toy Shop doesn't fit my plan, at least this year, because I don't see those 50-100% gains. As a near-identical remake, it's future won't be as strong as SW. I could be wrong, but that's a moderate level of risk I'm willing to take. I'll let the flippers do the flipping for sub 50%. It's a fine strategy, just not mine.

 

[Val-E]

Whoever has built this, isn't $80 a lot for a small house, tree and some minifigures no one cars about? I like SW a lot more and $10 less

The people who bought 10199 on the secondary market after EOL may wish to disagree!