Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.
BRICKPICKER

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Click Here To View The NEW DAILY DEALS FEED!

Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
Show all categories
Preview of 31026-1 Bike Shop & Cafe
It is with mixed feelings that I start the review about this set.  The set is a fairly new set (May 2014) and it's a part of the Creator series. It would fit in perfectly with a City setup and there is a possibility to use the parts for a MOC.  The MSRP is 79.99€ in Europe($89.99 in the US) and has 1023 pieces. The mixed feelings come from the fact that when I choose sets to review, I choose them on basis of display ability.  At first sight, it does not look bad, but it seems tiny compared to the Modular building series.  It is only because of a significant price cut (52€/piece), that I bought 2 sets of the 31026-1 Bike Shop & Cafe.  This set is a part of the 3-in-1 type of creator sets so manuals for 3 different builds are included.
Theme
The Creator theme is a very vast collection of different types of builds.  It ranges from creatures to vehicles and buildings.  They are in general more detailed than City Sets and therefore also suited for AFOL's and MOC.  The sets were meant to be without minifigures in the beginning but when the theme evolved, some sets were released with minifigures and this included the 31026-1, which has 3 of them. The difficulty for building can be rated from very easy to relatively difficult.
Packaging
           
The packaging is simple. You have the LEGO Creator logo on it.  Then a picture of the street where you can see a scene with the 2 buildings and minifigures in action.  Below that you have the 2 other pictures of the sets you can build.  Actually the scene does remind a lot of what you can find on City sets. The back of the set shows the back of the buildings with the interior and once more, the 2 other setups with larger pictures.
Content

In the box, we can find 8 separate bags, 2 light gray plates and a bag containing the manuals. The bags are not numbered as with other sets due to its 3-in-1 nature.  I can't say I have the "wow" feeling when I look at these bags. The set is a 1k+ pieces one so I had expected more of it for some reason.
Build Experience

You can see on the picture above that 31026-1 Bike Shop & Cafe has a lot of different colors, especially the dark red and light blue which  are very special to have as building accents.  In terms of color variety it did impress me.  Once you sort the lot, you realize you do have quite a nice variety of useful building bricks.
Build Part 1: The Bike Shop
            
It's tiny! Is something you would say when you start building the Bike Shop. Agreed, it can not be the same as building 10224-1 The Town Hall, but it looks surprisingly well.  The ground floor has the beautiful blue walls and also the funky green slopes above the big window. The window arches are beautifully done and the grooves in the first floor walls combined with the gray accents really turned out well!  The locking mechanism feels sturdy.

There are some nice interior details.  For one  you have the kitchenette on the first floor. Very well done.  I liked the golden tap.  So absolutely vintage.  It resembles somewhat the kitchen of my first studio.  On the roof, which can be reached by ladders and a hatch, there is a little terrace with a barbecue set. Typical for small urban houses. It is my favorite part of the structure. In general, the Bike Shop part made a good impression with its build, pieces and techniques.  Because of the small size of this structure, the building goes relatively easy.
There were some issues with stability in the beginning, I broke a wall down when building, but in all, it was pleasant to build. It would fit well in a LEGO City setup folded out.  For use in a Modular Building Series, it is too small in combination with the existing buildings.  It is a relatively easy build so the younger ones will be able to have fun building this too.
Duration of the build: 54 minutes
Build Part 2: The Car
            
It is nothing really special this car.  It has a pair of rims  that I have not seen before.  The hood is quite nicely done with the different elevations but for the rest, it is an ordinary small yellow car.
Duration of the build: 7 minutes
Build Part 3: The Café
              
The Cafe seems to be larger than the Bike Shop.  The ground floor is the café.  The first floor holds a relax area and the roof has a nice botanic garden.  On the outside there is a small terrace to enjoy a cup of espresso. When you look at the outside, you see the colors dark red, sand brown and blue.  I like all 3 colors and the sand brown does go well with both the blue and the red.  Combining all three colors in the building is daring and does not work for me.  When the building is clapped out (in play-mode), it would look good in a City setup.  The curtains look pretty good from the outside. You can see a construction for a lamp and espresso-machine which are both well designed.
Duration of the build: 51 minutes I see this building especially as a showcase for colors and building techniques.  It shows you some ways to decorate windows, and how  to break up walls to give them some life.  It also shows how to construct certain items, like a workbench or a espresso-machine.
 Important also is that the café has 11 windows and 3 doors and it is about the same for the Bike Shop.
 Windows and doors are expensive if you have to buy them in pieces from s@h or Bricklink which certainly adds value to this set. In all, I like the building experience of this set. It is over 1000 pieces but it builds relatively fast.
Building Techniques
I think the entire set is a building technique at itself. Plenty of things are demonstrated
Arches above windows Placement of windows next to doors Locking mechanism Combining windows Decorating outer walls Roof decoration Special items Etc... This set has some great building techniques. Definitely feel like I learned something while building this.
Minifigures
             
The Suited Guy: The head is released in 2014 and already can be found in 4 different sets.It is pretty common as is the rest of this body. The torso dates from 2006 even and has appeared in 18 sets so far.  I am a bit disappointed that they have not yet updates this torso to have back printing.  The pants for Suited Guy and the rest of the minifigures are all very common unpainted ones.
Leisure Girl: Leisure girls hair is a new mold from 2014  and is unique to this set so far... but undoubtedly it will turn up in City sets to follow since it worked out well. She has a funny torso.  The lines drawn give her a more female look but kind of a superhero-female look. Nice abs!  The back has some printing too, also with the lines and black area.  I wonder if these are just the pockets of the jacket she's wearing.  Again a lost opportunity to add some more value to this new minifigure by adding some printing on the pants or perhaps even with a different color.
Bike Shop Employee: Mediocre minifigure. Don't have anything for or against it. If you look at these minifigures and compare them with the ones from the modular building series, you will find them disappointing.  The uniqueness and quantity.  It is hard to rate this section.  Creator series are not focused on minifigures so in essence, 3 minifigures is very good compared  to other sets of its kind.  But on the other hand, if you look at the price, you would probably have expected some more.
Unique Pieces

The amount of 'nice' pieces in this set was pretty good for a set of this size.  It is not overwhelming but certainly approved what I found.
3 pieces are strictly unique to this set. 1 piece is available in 1 other set besides Bike Shop & Cafe 18 pieces are available in this set and 5 or less other sets. Some printed pieces like the calculator, the screen and bank notes are always nice.  There are no stickers in this set.  My favourite part is the gold tap.  The special green slope is found in other sets too, but it is the first appearance in a Creator set.  The wheels and the orange translucent cap, I just chose because I liked them, nothing really special about them. For a complete overview, you can check out Brickset.
Value For the Money
 
With a price of 79.99€ or $89.99 it is an expensive set for the Creator series but still acceptable.  It is also one of the larger Creator sets.  The price has not fluctuated yet but as seen it can be bought for around 60€ at this moment.  Already a nice drop from MSRP. The total pieces of this set is 1023 while it weighs 1700 grams.
Price/Piece comes to 7.82c/piece Price/Gram comes to 4.71c/gram Here  we have a nice difference between the Price/Piece and the Price/Gram.  The manual comes in triple so it adds to the weight of the set.  It is not a bad value when you look at the contents.  
Plenty of windows and doors and some good colors.
Display

I don't think there is much to display.  Sure, it are both nice buildings, but they are too small to put them in a lineup with buildings from the Modular Building Series.  Perhaps if you take a few of 31026-1 to even out the difference in pieces, you might make something of it.  The 10224-1 Town Hall has about 2700 pieces compared to the about 1000 pieces of 31026-1.  So add 1,5 more of them to this and you could have a building that could stand well in this street. However, if you want to give your kid a nice extension to their City village, this is the item to get. If you fold out the buildings, you get a very nice length of buildings. And who knows, you might learn something when you help them build it. It has SOME minifigures and a very nice array of bricks so fun guaranteed.
The price between 60 and 70€makes it a  good holiday gift buy.
Growth Potential:
I don't believe this has that much growth potential.  It is a good set, but just not for investing.  I think everybody should have one, but none will pay you "top dollar" to get one.  I also think there will be other similar sets coming out in the next few years and they will be equally or better priced. I think 31026-1 was marketed wrong.
This is not a real Creator set, nor is it a Modular Building Series.  It is also not a City set or anything else.  Perhaps it can go to 120% of its MSRP but it is doubtful.
I hope you enjoyed reading this review as much as I have writing it and building the set. Comments are always welcome!
One of the most exciting times for a LEGO investor results from visiting LEGO S@H (LEGO's online storefront), looking for a particular set and suddenly realize there is a tag with the following message: "Retired Product"; Expectation and hope suddenly becomes joy.
If you are reading this article, odds are you are already familiar with the concept of EOL (End Of Line), but just in case I think it would be appropriate to summarize what it means. LEGO produces different sets along the year, and each design has a planned life cycle that only the company Execs. are aware of. Once this cycle is completed, the set goes out of production to make room for a new design, usually meaning that to acquire the already retired set a prospective buyer will need to go to the secondary market (Us!). As with anything, this decrease in supply will, hopefully, translate into an increase in set value and help the investor get a decent return of his/her investment.    
What is the problem, then? If we know that sets retire after a couple years of being in production why do we even worry about exactly when this will happen?; Well, that's the million dollar question, LEGO is now known for being very secretive AND not really consistent when it comes time to retire a particular set. This means that while an specific modular might retire 2 years after introduced, the next may last 3 or 4 years before it is pulled out of the shelves.
Having no concrete knowledge of when a set is retiring transforms into a dilemma for almost every single investor. With limited funds and an objective of maximizing profits and turnover, purchasing sets that are as close to retirement as possible becomes the most efficient way to be successful. Of course, this means that, occasionally , some investors will completely miss out on a popular set that retired before they expected OR will be left holding onto sets that will not retire for 2 or 3 more years! Tying their money, and space, for such a long period of time is definitely not the best way to make their business as efficient as possible.
But, how can we as investors have any clue about when a particular set is to be retired? Well, there is really no clear cut answer. Even though there are some clues and events that may indicate a set is nearing retirement, there is usually an understandable controversy surrounding every single one of the "leading indicators". My point is that, while I tried to collect and summarize some of the possible signs suggesting retirement, none of these should really be taking as the one and only guide when developing an investing strategy. My objective is only to list them and give mostly new investors an idea of some of the things we talk about more deeply in the forums.
LEADING INDICATORS:

1- Retiring Soon Tag
Clearly, one of the most telling events in a set's life is when LEGO S@H assigns the tag "Retiring Soon". Even though it may seem that this event pretty much guarantees a sooner than later retirement, the process is definitely not as straightforward. One of the things that may happen is a set with the tag lingering on the shelves and online storefront for months after the tag has been assigned. This could be a way for LEGO to "Clearance" a set without actually lowering the price, basically pushing potential buyers to make a purchase before the set goes away forever. Another thing to consider is that most of the products that retire never even get the tag assigned to them at all. Think of the Haunted House model that according to the majority of the investors is as close to official retirement as it is going to get. The set never had the Retiring Soon tag, it basically went from being In Stock, to Backorder and finally to Sold Out. This is a more common transition, especially with the larger exclusives.
2- Sudden, and deep, discount in official LEGO outlets
As above, this is another sign that most of the sets do not ever show. However, opposite to the Retiring Soon tag, once a set experiences a deep discount from LEGO stores and S@H (think 30% or more), it is almost a certainty that it will be retired within the next couple of weeks. As you can imagine, once a set is discounted in this manner it goes to Sold Out status in a matter of days if not hours. [img url="http://community.brickpicker.com/uploads/2014/10/Untitled1.png" cks="responsive"]   The image above shows sets with both the Retiring Soon tag and the "Sale Price" discount.
3- LEGO Limits
This is one of the most controversial items on the list, and for good reason. As most of the members in the forums know, LEGO is known by limiting the amount of a same set you can purchase, especially the hard to find exclusives. Most of the time, the limits start at 5 per household and seem to be lowered as a set is nearing retirement, usually to 2 or 1. Having said that, there really is no clear evidence indicating that this pattern actually correlates to going EOL, and several sets a year completely deviate from this perceived pattern.
4- Time on the Shelves
Again, a very difficult sign to interpret. It seems that in years past LEGO was a little more predictable when it came to figuring out how long a particular set would be available for. Estimates and comments seem to place the average availability of a set at around 2 years, but as most of you know LEGO seems to have been extending the life of popular sets for 4 or more years!. However, with some exceptions *cough, DS*, once a set has been available for 3 or more years and is sharing shelf space with newer and similar models (think Modulars), it is pretty safe to assume that retirement will come sooner rather than later, making it OK to start stocking up.
5- Production Run Codes
For an introduction to Production codes, please go HERE This somewhat recent discovery can also be considered helpful to help determine potential EOL. If we as investors see a set available in 2015 that has been showing some of the other signs of retirement, and discover that the production codes indicate current inventory came from several months ago, it could lead us to believe that LEGO has stopped production of the set and is simply waiting for the last batch to be completely sold out. As with any of the other indicators, tread carefully when using production codes.
6- Retired Product Tag
Finally, the Holy Grail of LEGO investing. Once a set is assigned this tag on LEGO S@H, its death is official. This is the tag that generates more joy and excitement among the community members and, other than being able to find the set at other retailers (notably TRU & B&N), it means that any opportunity to acquire this set is pretty much gone.

 
Finally!
In the end, the point is that there is no sure way to determine if a set is nearing its retirement. The best we can all do is take a look at all of these signs in aggregate and share our opinions in the forums hoping for that beautiful day when the Retired Product tag shows up in LEGO S@H. Thanks for reading.  
LEGO, officially known as The LEGO Group,  is currently the #1 toy maker in the world.  But did you know at one time, it was on its knees and at the edge of bankruptcy?  This article speaks of the Danish toy maker and how they pulled just the right strings to make this remarkable and educational toy a success in a declining toy market.  It's the story about the "Eye of the Lego Tiger" and how a company went from one extreme to the other and back again.
Past
Days of Glory
Once upon a time before 1992, Ole "Man" Kirk Kristiansen bought a plastic molding device and created... a brick.  This brick was special as it had the ability to stick to another brick without any glue involved!  Instead, it had an interlockable mechanism.  And so the story of what binds all the people on this forum begins. All it takes is an original idea.  Well... an original or a stolen one.  Tracking down the actual birth of the modern brick is rather difficult.
I would say that the current LEGO brick is an invention perfected by many companies and of which The LEGO Group came out strongest in the end.  I will not bore the reader more with any information as it is not relevant for the rest of the article.
Some Facts:
In 1944 Automated Binding Bricks are born.      In 1963 the material became ABS.  In  1978 the minifig saw the light. In 1979 Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen became the president of TLG. Various subthemes are launched. In 1994 the Company grows to 8.880 employees It were golden years for The LEGO Group and their 'Brick'.
Days of Defeat
The decay had started.  For many years, LEGO had prospered but it was about to come to and end soon.  From 1992 onto 2004, things didn't go exactly as planned.  Black Wednesday at its finest. The main causes for this were:
Shrinking customer base in the European and American region. Home entertainment revolution. Bad response to the market change Weak dollar, strong US competition for building bricks market. LEGOland Parks were not profitable. Portfolio became no longer manageable. Strong cheap Chinese competition. Two consecutive losses in 2003-2004 caused the company to be on the edge of bankruptcy.  In 2004, Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen resigned and appointed JØrgen Vig Knudstorp as CEO.
Present
From 2005 to the current day, TLG has changed dramatically and attempted to bring back what they had lost the 12 difficult years before.  The economy was getting on its feet again and after a lot of hard and/or costly decisions, it got to the point where it is now.
  Back to the Core
The company philosophy changed and it was decided to focus more on the core activities.  It is why the LEGOland theme parks were sold to a theme park organizer.  At a certain time, they were making nothing and everything.
Desperate times ask for desperate measures
There was a drastic cut on costs by outsourcing distribution and production.  Distribution moved to Central-Europe, Production plants were added in Mexico and the Czech Republic and took over some  of Billund's production. A plant in the US closed, another in Switzerland.  Some distribution centers here and there. Quite some people's jobs got outsourced to other 'cheaper' countries.  It was one of the darkest moments in LEGO history. However, financially, it was a very successful (and necessary) move.  The factories keep on expanding due to the heavy demand.  In Mexico, during the month of June, the expansion of the factory was a fact and more than 1.000 new jobs can be created.  An extra factory has been inaugurated in March in Hungary. So bad news for some, good news for others.
Batman to the rescue!
The licensed theme sets are a large success with the huge amounts of movies coming out.  However, TLG do not count those as being one of their core products so it is possible that after they gained enough ground with the public, the licensed themes will be built off.  The reason is simple, licensed themes only work when a film comes out.  Because of this, the revenue on these items becomes very erratic.  And erratically selling products are something any company would try to avoid. TLG also rebooted the Duplo theme which also proved to be a very successful move.  In fact they have tried to break open the consumer market and trying hard to gain over the favor of selected target audiences. There are 29 different active themes on the moment of writing and the main themes are:
LEGO Duplo LEGO City LEGO Technic LEGO Star Wars (Licensed) LEGO Friends If you look at the current lineup for themes, you will find a theme for babies, toddlers, young boys,  young girls and AFOLS.  It is amazing to see that with 1 product, so many people can be reached.
Barbie who?
The company has moved up in the ranks and as of writing, it occupies first place with revenue sales 30 million dollars over Mattel after it had hopped over Hasbro in 2012.  Of course Mattel will still release a bunch of their products late in the year so there is a possibility Mattel will strike back.  But it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to stop the TLG behemoth from taking over the lead eventually.  If you look at the numbers, it is very impressing.  Over the last 6 years, TLG managed to triple their revenue. Of course the release of The LEGO Movie helped them reach this goal.  Globally the movie has been a great success.  Perhaps an idea  for Mattel to do a movie feat. Barbie and Ken… But let me tell you that Barbie is not KO yet.  Certain companies work better under pressure of not being the undisputed # 1 anymore. Other companies fail to react consequently or react as a headless chicken.
The Future?
There is still a lot of potential for TLG to expand.  If you look at the demographic situation, there are 2 billion Chinese people and over 1 billion people in India that can become potential customers. The situation in 2011 was as following graph displays.  Of course, now in 2014, things have changed already for eg. China, but it does show LEGO's business plan for expansion during the next couple of years.

Here we can see the Russian market that has matured more, the Brazilian and Mexican market that are on their way to maturity and the Chinese market in their child shoes.  India is currently not even in the womb yet.
Russia
Since 2007 until the beginning of this year, revenue for Russia has tenfolded.  It did however take quite some time for it to come this far.  LEGO started already in 1985 with its Russian story.  Back then, Russia was still part of the Soviet Union. TLG found its place and started to make its connections with retailers and distributors.  It is when the Soviet Union fell and the middle class became larger, that the little LEGO bricks were taken in the heart of the Russians.  Since then, the market has very much matured and gave room for other endeavours like China.
Americas
Bringing a factory to Mexico was a very smart move of TLG.  It brought capacity to supply the largest LEGO market and boosted the sales for LEGO in South America.  It was their primary focus for enlarging their customer base.  The North American market is still growing and with the logistics part simplified, the revenue in North-America increases.  South-America benefits from this too, albeit in lesser degree since LEGO still is relatively expensive.
China
TLG is at this moment investing strongly in the Chinese market.  I think this one will be the most significant market for LEGO in the near future.  Dare I say more important than the US and EU combined? A factory is planned to be operational in 2017 (Jiaxing – Zhejiang Province) bundled with a distribution center in Shanghai.  This investment is a necessity for TLC to make as their product is really too expensive – sometimes even double the price - in comparison with the US and EU prices.  The huge distribution costs played a very important role in this. However, even with the factory not in place yet, TLG managed to have an increase of sales of around 50% in the first half of the year so it offers some good perspective for the future. It is not the first time that TLG tried to get its foot in to crack open the Chinese door.  Before the changing of the millennium, they made an attempt, but it was unsuccessful due to their diversified business model and expensive toys.  Cheap knock-offs were produced and the Chinese shoppers at that moment did not hesitate to go for the lower-quality copy.  With the coming of the factory, the prices of LEGO will drop and this will also have its effect on the LEGO-counterfeit. The choice of investing in China rather than India is an obvious one.  TLG’s product speaks to the philosophy of Chinese parents more than a Barbie doll.   Creativity is of high importance to them so they don’t have to compete with Mattel.  Building bricks are just bound to continue being successful in China if the price is right and the marketing well executed.
India
India seems a Mattel stronghold.  In 2013 Funskool Toys was the largest toy producer with Mattel following as second with 20%.  Hasbro is good for 9% and the TLG share in India is 4%.  So this is an opportunity still for the company.  However, there seems to see more profit in China at this moment. As soon as TLG feels comfortable in China, I am sure India will be the next target.  The question however remains if LEGO bricks can ever top the success of Barbie there.  If LEGO keeps on pumping out Friends sets, I’m sure they have a chance to succeed.
So what will be TLG's next move?
The future seems bright for TLG.  It has been a difficult journey but they managed to find a succesful formula to bring their products.  Hard sacrifices were made by outsourcing a large part of their activities.  This combined with the 'there's a theme for everyone' lineup helps them become the biggest toy maker in the world.  For how long this will last is of course the most important question.   What goes up...
Resources:
http://lego.wikia.com/wiki/Automatic_Binding_Brick http://euromonitor.typepad.com/files/sampledeck-corporate-strategies-in-emerging-toy-markets.pdf http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/02/daily-chart-8 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/859023.shtml http://aboutus.lego.com/en-us/news-room/2014/september/interim-result-2014 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/13442193/ns/business-us_business/t/lego-lay-end-us-production http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/why-lego-succeeded-while-jysk-failed-in-russia/490394.html  
A Look at the Arctic Sub-theme 
With summer almost here it's time to take a look at the new sets and analyze their investment potential. One of the most intriguing sub-themes out there this season is the Arctic themed line of sets from the City theme. Unlike most other city sub-themes that are available this wave and have new sets released regularly or every other year (such as Police, Traffic or Trains) the Arctic line hasn't been seen since 2000 (under the Town theme) and in those fourteen years of growth the standards for minifigures, sets and pieces themselves have been raised. So now the question is how can we find out if the 2014 Arctic sets will perform well?  
 
Analyzing the Arctic Sub-theme
Now unfortunately due to incomplete data and the age of the latter it's difficult to accurately compare the 2014 Arctic sets to their 2000 counterparts, but even though Arctic is the odd one out when compared to the other City sub-themes of this wave we can take a look at some of the other irregular sub-themes released in the past few years which in this case will consist of the Farm (2009-2010), Space (2011) and Mining (2012) sub-themes. By using Brickpicker's lot calculator we can find the current total cost of each sub-theme.
So far the Farm sets (7684 7634 7635 7636 7637 7566) have done much better than the other examples, even when taking into consideration the fact that it's had more appreciation time than the other two, with a retail total of approximately $205, a current sale total of $502.12 (almost two and a half times retail) and a return of $297.12 U.S.
The 2011 Space sets (3365 3366 3367 3368) have done ok (though again not nearly as well as Farm) with retail total approximately $125, a current sale total of $157.19 and a return of $32.19 U.S.
The 2012 Mining sets (4200 4201 4202 4203 4204) have seen the least return, but have also had the least amount of time to appreciate, with a retail total approximately $205, a current sale total of $221.77 and a return of only $16.77 U.S.
Now the following is going to be mostly speculation but it's still backed by some facts. The 2014 Arctic sets will almost certainly do better than the Mining sub-theme and will probably perform a better than the 2011 Space sets but not as good as the Farm sub-theme. Why draw this conclusion? The Arctic sets seem pretty neat with lots of cool pieces, unlike the mostly dull Mining sub-theme which were also designed, for the most part, very similarly to the construction sub-theme. The Space sub-theme sets were well made and interesting enough but they were unfortunately in an over-saturated market for that genre of sets. The Arctic sets, like the Farm ones, are interesting (of particular note are the huskies and polar bears) with most of the sets having a unique design and reside in a market segment with no genre competition, however the latter line of sets are more suitable to the other City sets than the former.  
 
Investment Prediction
So based on the recent performance and comparing the interestingness of other recent City sub-themes I predict that in five years the 2014 Arctic sets will have at least reached an average price of 75% over retail.
This blog follows on from my previous blogs presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.  This update will be based on values as at the end of Mar-14.  This means comparisons in the “Last Rank” column of the tables will be comparing movements from the Feb-14 positions. Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:
I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension Information is based on US prices only Not all sets across all themes are included as I have little interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though. I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)
An entirely new set of entrants again as we have become used to given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next.  None of the movers from Feb-13 have popped up again here.  Interestingly for those who follow the 9465 Zombies phenomenon it just missed out on the top 20 coming in at 21st with 21.76% monthly growth in what could be a second wind?
It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:  
Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from September 2013 )
Another list with quite a few new entrants.  Plenty of recently retired sets enjoying that initial post EOL price bump.  8092 Luke’s Landspeeder has seen excellent consistent growth since it went EOL about 6 months ago.  9490 and 6866 improve up the leaderboard with continued strong growth.  9447 jumps straight in at number 6 as a result of topping the 1 month chart.  
One Year Growth (change in Market Price from March 2013)

Black Phantom slips down 3 from last months top spot which is taken over by Butterfly Beauty Shop on the back of a further 22.6% growth in the month (made 19th on the 1 month table).  Who said Prince of Persia is a poor theme for investment? Well 7571 enters the chart with a great year of growth behind it to dispel that myth, or is it just the exception to the rule?
Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.  
Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from March 2012)

Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods.
Fire Lord and Level Crossing switch spots at the top after Level Crossing gained another 17.2% in the month.  Dino Defense rockets up to number 3 after a superb 38.8% monthly increase (3rd on the monthly chart).
We can now start to see some of the performers in the shorter time periods that were presented in previous articles begin to push their way through onto the 2 year growth table, like the Rocka XL, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Black Phantom.  
Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP)

Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples.
Not much to report here with a mostly static table.  6846 jumps in at the bottom but has little or no volumes to speak of. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989.
Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…  
Conclusions
These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  There is a large portion of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs.      
Hello guys, My second article will discuss Architecture Sets! As a reminder, the first one summarized my experiences with buying second hand lego sets and bulk. Even though the conclusions were probably predictable to many veteran BrickPicker, for me jumping in the water of the secondary hand lego market was the best way to learn where the culprits are of this trade. For those who are not interested in discovering the tips, I can summarize by telling you I live by the NICHE rule now: Net Incoming Cash per Hour of Effort. In other words: I'm building a stock of MISB sets. And that brings me to the main topic of this second blog: what to buy and what to leave out? Are Architecture sets worth it?
The name of the trade for me is more than just buying up large 'licenced' sets at discounts and wait for 2 years. I want to work out what sets could be sleeping under the radar and get those right. Maybe 'Architecture' fits that bill? I'm not sure, but lets find out! And let's see if my analysis confirms whether "FallingWater" could be the investment in this space or not... Investing is all about getting a lot of cool quality product at the brink of the retirement date. The "sleepier" the set, the better. As not many investors will be 'panic buying' it when it is gone, and you'll have ample time to stock at attractive prices. Therefore this article will explain why I think Architecture is sleeping. Second, I will show you why retirement has very much arrived and what it has and could mean for a couple of sets out there that you can still stack at reasonable prices. Through the article, you'll find reasons why people like and dislike these mini-buildings. Personally, I started off disliking it: too expensive, small, wrong scale, no playability, boring colors... But once I read and researched them, I also saw the positives: High quality, artistic, nostalgia, some luxury aspect, souvenir-like, easiliy show-cased, beautiful booklets, attractive collector items, strong design aspect, rich end-customer, sustainable demand from tourism... As you can read on the forums, the jury remains undecided on Architecture. In fact, many invetsors are frustrated as the retirement for these sets wasn't the "classic" two years. And this is a good thing. It means there could be some undiscovered jewels yet, waiting to be bought cheaply and sold for a fat margin by the smart first mover. My interest got particularly triggered when I saw how 21016 Sungnyemun behaved: the set was retired and rapidly doubled in value. Why? Is there a parallel for other sets possible? I never really looked into Sungnyemun, but I should have. Let's not miss out on the others - so I think. And that's what the article is about.
 
Architecture has "Sleeper Potential": 4 reasons
1. A mediocre track record.
 
 
Let's start by looking at the numbers above. The CAGR rate from BrickPicker's site is +11.27%.
Therefore this theme sits just below the average 11.41%. Perfect! That means many investors will look elsewhere. Obviously the picture could change as more sets come EoL. Sungnyemun and the first Sears Tower just to name a few made very good progress once taken off the Lego-factory production line. People who bought the Robie House below RRP can sell it today at 200E. That's nice, but only for investors who waited for a discount in 2013 to get in.
2. Adults Only Lego.
 
Architecture is not the kind of set you will see in teh window pane of a Toy R Us. You have to look for these sets: they are a little hidden in the classic kids' toy store. The Lego-group doesn't promote them aggressively. The typical Lego Store has some architecture sets in the right back corner of the shop, hidden between gimmics and Cusoo. Whilst their kids are attracted by the bright colors and cool pictures, parents will browse through the shops, ask advice and pick an architecture set that has the most artistic and nostalgic attraction for them. Maybe they have seen these buildings during travels. Design, nostalgia,... these little statues can decorate an appartment for example. And taste is personal: some like Eiffel, others Pisa (this article is going awry)...
 
3. High Quality, High price per part
 
Most sets carry a premium price tag. It feels they are "luxury toys" for less price sensitive buyers who would after visiting one of the World's Wonders buy a 50$ lego-souvenir. It should come as no surprise that the 21021 Marina Bay Sands which was sold exclusively in Asia targeting tourists and testing demand for very exclusive sets is trading above the 100E mark. If tourists are ready to buy a 40E catalogue after a visit of Guggenheim in NY, it makes sense they also could buy a little Lego-building as a souvenir to bring home to family and have the booklet with stories, pictures and history added for the same price. Millions of tourists visit Paris, London or Sydney every year, therefore there should be continued interest. Once the production line stops, demand could start outstripping supply and trigger a new price equilibrium. 4. Part out value: negligeable No need to mass-acquire architecture sets for their parts. Many sets use very basic bricks and cost as much as the bricks themselves. A traditional store will look for part out values twice the amount of dollar value of the set. We can be pretty sure that the market isn't going to be flooded with the rare flat name tiles of the buildings. One can only hope that these 4 reasons will be sufficient to make these sets fly once they are end of line. The only risk of them being 'bad sellers' is that the entire concept would be stopped. That would hammer investment returns, as the longer "Architecture" would exist, the more adult fans it would generate, the more collectors would want to have the entire series, and the better the returns. Based on the comments on their website, lego's commitment to sustain the line is there. The challenge for the architecs is to come with a minimalistic approach to make scale models with small bricks. This was an idea started in the 60-ties and rediscovered 40 years later. Through its partnership with Chicago architect Adam Reed Tucker, the Architecture line - reproductions of iconic buildings rendered in Lego was launched in 2008 with the Sears Tower. My best guess is that all future creations will keep that"artistic appeal" and serve to enhance the brand image of the lego group accross all ages. I also gave customer service a call, asking them whether Architecture Studio would come to Europe. They confirmed it would be available during Q3 2014 (the soonest), and that demand for this set in Europe was huge, reinforcing their commitment to have more geographies tapping into the theme .
And now comes the interesting part. There's a new wave of sets that have gone EoL. Will investors who are sick of waiting for FallingWater to retire, see their prayers answered? Three additional sets have already retired. Did you spot them too? Are they worth it? First of all, it's clear that Robie House has gone. It didn't take that long for this set to trade back at MSRP. Next gone are Lego Architecture 21004 Guggenheim Museum and Lego Architecture 21008 Burj Khalifa. And my best guess is that the 21009 Farnsworth House is gone too as there's no more stock in the US. The Amazon website give a similar picture. In fact, the Burj is already trading at a premium there, but not yet on BrickLink. If you want to get in, now is the time.
A good buy is somthing you will be able to sell quickly with a premium. Obviously, that implies we need to look at supply and demand stats. Using 6 month data from Bricklink.com (up to May 2014), I tried to get a first impression on what is popular and what investors have overstocked.
 
  Supply 6 Months Sales Wanted List Average Sold
BL Price RRP Months of Supply Long-Term
Demand Indicator Big Ben 132 66 52 26 29,99 12,00 79% Brandenburg Gate 284 41 49 25,5 34,99 41,56 75% Burj Khalifa 73 70 43 20 24,99 6,26 66% Empire State Building 186 18 68 17,3 19,99 62,00 104% Fallingwater 109 32 134 67 89,99 20,44 204% Farnsworth House 115 47 80 43 59,99 14,68 122% Imperial Hotel 94 16 49 114 129,99 35,25 75% John Hancock Center 9 38 99 73 19,99 1,42 151% Marina Bay Sands 36 129 69 112 na 1,67 105% Robie House 38 64 86 146 199,00 3,56 131% Rockefeller Center 100 54 56 31 34,99 11,11 85% Sears Tower 13 16 80 46 19,99 4,88 122% Seattle Space Needle 147 13 64 18,5 19,99 67,85 98% Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum 136 46 84 30 39,99 17,74 128% Sungnyemun 34 108 58 50 34,99 1,89 88% Sydney Opera House 181 58 52 30 39,99 18,72 79% The Eiffel Tower 181 58 52 31 39,99 18,72 79% The Leaning Tower of Pisa 133 46 39 31 34,99 17,35 59% The White House 206 31 77 42 54,99 39,87 117% United Nations Headquarters 94 47 37 45 49,99 12,00 56% Villa Savoye 78 17 50 57 69,99 27,53 76%  
Personally, I found the data sample small but nonetheless interesting. Supply - Demand The data is only indicative obviously, but we can clearly see that investors might have to wait a long time before the stock has gone on the Space Needle and Empire State Building (> 5 years), Brandenburg Gate and White House (3.5 Yr)! FallingWater sits at a little less than 2 years which is mainly due to its lacklustre sales volumes during the observation period. Once the set would be officially EoL, I would suspect the supply to dry up fast, making this set quickly rare. Remaining stock on Khalifa is only 6 months! Even though the sets isn't very popular, a squeeze up of prices is very possible as this isn't produced by lego anymore. The Wanted-List Next indication for long term demand is the 'wanted list'. The higher the percentage, the better the long-term interest from collectors. Guggenheim, White House, FallingWater, Farnsworth House score well on this rating. Note that people aren't in a hurry to get the recent buildings: UN, Pisa, Eiffel don't score well. The "Wanted List" is used by investors who are price sensitive and want to wait for a set to depreciate before buying. That explains why some more expensive sets (Robie, Sands) score higher than lower priced items. Note that it isn't clear how high the price on the Robie House can go. This is the most expensive Architecture set, and it would be interesting to see whether that higher price tag would limit appreciation potential. Wrapping this up: conclusions & what to buy? All in all, everyone should come with you own interpretation of this table I guess. My personal conclusions based on the research I did on the Lego website, through Q&A with friends, family and lego fanatics, the data from BrickLink and the European Amazon sites is as follows: Architecture
will do well EoL: Robie, Sungnyemun, Marine Sands are recent proof of this will be there long-term for adults, tourist, collectors and creative minds (studio) has come to a first EoL cycle: Guggenheim, Khalifa, Farnsworth are gone/going but still available @ RRP shows sustained potential from collectors remains under the radar for now: it could be hiding "sleepers" doesn't warrant investment too soon: wait for retirement and unless Robie House breaks the 300$ mark, stick to the 20 - 100$ range Clearly, My opinion on this line of products has changed drastically from negative to "constructive". I will keep close track of this area for the coming months. There could be something brewing there and who know where the CAGR will be in a couple of years! Keep you eye out for... (in order of preference)
Thanks for reading. Hopefully, you will offer me your views on this topic as well.
 
Licensed Sets: The Issue with Investing.
It's common knowledge (and a common complaint) that sets from licensed themes often cost quite a bit more than those that are non-licensed. It makes sense of course, The Lego Company has to pay for the right to make sets based on characters that they didn't create and those who buy those sets of course have to pay their share in turn but the higher cost is still, especially for investors, a bit of a difficult pill to swallow. Investors must also face the fact that even some sets that are part of a strong licensed theme can bomb pretty badly, so what is one to do?
Why Invest in Poly-bags?
When looking at potential investments in licensed themes poly-bags (this post is specifically looking at those that were/would be available for retail purchase and contain a minifigure and is not addressing poly-bags that were promotional/exclusive only or are simply mini-models of larger sets) make a good choice because the price is quite low (CA $4.99) yet they usually have some pretty valuable or interesting pieces and/or either a main character that's otherwise hard to come or a soldier, which is good for "army-building" as some people like to do. Another good thing about poly-bags is that even if they don't appreciate much in value they can probably be resold at around the same cost as the original purchase price, but of course it's best to make informed decisions when investing in order to make a good profit.
To help gain an understanding of what makes a good poly-bag we can take a look at the Bricklink price guide sold averages for licensed poly-bags (and as stated before ignoring those that did not contain minifigures and/or were only available through special promotions) that were released in the last two years (2012-2013 at the time of this post).
Set Number/NameYear of ReleasePiecesThemeAverage Sold Price (BL)30160: Batman Jet-ski201240Super Heroes> DCCA $14.4530212: Mirkwood Elf Guard201227The Hobbit> An Unexpected JourneyCA $12.2230166: Robin and Redbird Cycle201340Super Heroes> DCCA $12.2030163: Thor and the Cosmic Cube201225Super Heroes> MarvelCA $10.3230167: Iron Man vs. Fighting Drone201324Super Heroes> MarvelCA $9.0130058: STAP201224Star WarsCA $8.6630211: Uruk-Hai with ballista201221Lord of the Rings> The Two TowersCA $7.1630165: Hawkeye with equipment201224Super Heroes> MarvelCA $6.2030213: Gandalf at Dol Guldur201231The Hobbit> An Unexpected JourneyCA $5.6930210: Frodo with cooking corner201233Lord of the Rings> The Fellowship of the RingCA $5.4030270: Kraang's Turtle Target Practice201336Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesCA $4.89Looking at the graph above you can see that the poly-bags are listed in order of value (greatest-least) and that four of the top five poly-bags are in the Super Heroes theme. It's also important to note that most have figures who were only otherwise available, at the time of the poly-bags release, in sets above CA $39.99. Another thing to note is that all of the poly-bags that don't include a vehicle have somewhat unique/hard-to-find parts in them instead such as
30212: Mirkwood Elf Guard has a green wine glass, a large mushroom and some tree/foliage 30163: Thor and the Cosmic Cube has a clear transparent 1X1 block 30211: Uruk-Hai with ballista has a Halberd and some robot arm pieces 30165: Hawkeye with equipment has some earth blue 1X2 smooth tiles and a compound bow 30213: Gandalf at Dol Guldur has some green vines, a sword and a brown telescope 30210: Frodo with cooking corner has a dark transparent bottle, a gold goblet and a sausage 30270: Kraang's Turtle Target Practice has some nice transparent violet pieces along with some robot arms  
What's the Key to a Good Poly-bag?
So while we can see that most poly-bags don't often resell below the retail price what are the important signs of a really good poly-bag? First thing is that you want it to contain a character who's popular (obviously) or one that it would be good to collect multiples of. And while it's good for a poly-bag to have some unique/semi-rare pieces, they seem to do better if they contain a vehicle of some sort.
Have you ever wandered around the LEGO Shop website and come across the Seasonal theme? Glanced through the page quickly and admire the seasonal accuracy of the small sets? This small collection of LEGO sets not only offer great holiday memorabilia, but also superb investments!
Seasonal sets are sets released during certain times of the year, ie. Winter, in relation to different holidays or events, ie. Christmas. These sets are often only available for a few months, and generally once they are sold out, they are gone, save a select few sets (for example LEGO Winter Village sets, which tend to reappear annually).
 
HISTORY
The theme was first released back in 1977, with the solo debut of the 246 Santa and Sleigh set. It was nearly a decade before LEGO produced another Seasonal set, and only in the last one-and-a-half decades that the celebratory sets have been more regularly (1997-present). Information from Brickipedia.com When the theme first started, the sets were small, with fewer than 100 pieces in most cases. Eventually the theme evolved to include larger sets, including the Winter Village sets we know so well. These sets have already been included in an article by adewar titled LEGO Winter Village Sets: Hot Holiday Profits or Bitterly Cold Returns? so they will not be included in this article because adewar did such a great job on the article and his analysis of the sets.
INVESTMENT BACKGROUND
If one were to look under the list of Tools & Data BrickPicker kindly offers, you would come across the CAGR by LEGO Theme webpage which compares the Compound Annual Growth Rate of different LEGO themes - over 90 in all. (click here for a list of articles which discuss CAGR). CAGR is a great way to get an overall, general picture of how a particular LEGO set or theme has performed and the percentage return over time. Ranked at an impressive #2 best Compound Annual Growth Rate, just behind LEGO Minecraft, it is obvious that this theme is no joke. What makes this theme so much less popular to investors, if it performs so obviously well? There are a variety of factors that tend to weigh in on this.
 
Like said previously, LEGO Seasonal sets don't last long. In 2013, the average availability of currently retired and non-promotional Seasonal set in LEGO's US online website was 100.5 days, or about 3 months. Much less than that of a normal set which can range from 1 year to 3 years of shelf life normally. When is the last time you saw a major BrickPicker topic about LEGO Seasonal sets? It is quite obvious from the low number of threads that these sets are under the BrickPicker radar. Even glancing on eBay, there are fewer listings for LEGO Seasonal sets than most other sets, even though both might be un-retired and widely available to all LEGO consumers. So, not only do LEGO Seasonal sets have short shelf life, they have less attention focused on them than a normal LEGO set, ie. Chima Cragger's Command Ship or Monster Fighters Vampyre Hearse.
 
A GLANCE AT THE SETS
Below is a table with a short biography of each Seasonal set that was released non-promotionally between 2010 and 2013. Does not include sets in the Winter Village Series or any ornaments.
Set Number & Name Year Released Season/Holiday Retail Price (USD) Current Value (ROI) Return of Investment (USD) CAGR 40004-1: Heart 2010 Winter/Valentine's Day $4.99 $12.36 $7.37 25.45% 40005-1: Bunny 2010 Spring/Easter $9.99 $18.13 $8.14 16.07% 40008-1: Snowman Building Set 2010 Winter/Christmas $4.99 $10.20 $5.21 19.57% 40009-1: Holiday Building Set 2010 Winter/Christmas $4.99 $10.37 $5.38 20.07% 40010-1: Santa with Sleigh Building Set 2010 Winter/Christmas $4.99 $12.33 $7.34 25.38% 40011-1: Thanksgiving Turkey 2010 Fall/Thanksgiving $4.99 $10.00 $5.01 18.98% 40012-1: Halloween Pumpkin 2010 Fall/Halloween $1.99 $4.25 $2.26 20.89% 40013-1: Halloween Ghost 2010 Fall/Halloween $1.99 $5.26 $3.27 27.51% 40014-1: Halloween Bat 2010 Fall/Halloween $4.99 $5.22 $3.23 1.13% 40015-1: Heart Book 2011 Winter/Valentine's Day $4.99 $12.73 $7.74 36.64% 40018-1: Easter Bunny 2011 Spring/Easter $4.99 $11.12 $6.13 30.62% 40020-1: Halloween Set 2011 Fall/Halloween $4.99 $7.70 $2.71 15.56% 40023-1: Holiday Stocking 2011 Winter/Christmas $3.99 $9.05 $5.06 31.39% 40024-1: Christmas Tree 2011 Winter/Christmas $3.99 $12.06 $8.07 44.59% 40029-1: Valentine's Day Box 2012 Winter/Valentine's $4.99 $18.26 $13.27 91.29% 40030-1: Duck with Ducklings 2012 Spring/Easter $4.99 $14.76 $9.77 71.99% 40031-1: Bunny and Chick 2012 Spring/Easter $4.99 $9.93 $4.94 41.07% 40051-1: Valentine's Day Heart Box 2013 Winter/Valentine's Day $4.99 $14.54 $9.55 191.38% 40052-1: Springtime Scene 2013 Spring/Spring $7.99 $9.95 $1.96 24.53% 40053-1: Easter Bunny with Basket 2013 Spring/Easter $4.99 $11.75 $6.76 135.47% 40054-1: Summer Scene 2013 Summer/Summer $4.99 $11.31 $6.32 126.65% 40055-1: Halloween Pumpkin 2013 Fall/Halloween $4.99 $11.80 $6.81 136.47% 40056-1: Thanksgiving Feast 2013 Fall/Thanksgiving $7.99 $13.36 $5.37 67.21% 40057-1: Fall Scene 2013 Fall/Fall $7.99 $13.00 $5.01 62.70% 40058-1: Decorating the Tree 2013 Winter/Christmas $7.99 $11.69 $3.70 46.31% 40059-1: Santa Sleigh 2013 Winter/Christmas $7.99 $14.40 $6.41 80.23% For your convenience, I've done a little number crunching for you. The highest CAGR per Season/Holiday from 2009-2013 that had more than one set per category was Winter/Valentine's Day, followed by Spring/Easter and Fall/Thanksgiving (complete rankings found at the very end of the article). When I first saw this ranking I was surprised that Winter/Christmas was not in the bunch. After looking at the overall numbers, there were 7 Winter/Christmas sets compared with 2-4 sets for the other 3 categories, which means that the other categories are less saturated with Seasonal sets than the Winter/Christmas category. In addition, Winter/Christmas sets are very repetitive, with numerous Christmas tree and Santa's Sleigh sets. Rather than doing an analysis of all the Seasonal sets, I put together analysis' of the two most recent 2014 Seasonal sets: the recently retired 40085-1: LEGO Teddy Bear and the 40086-1: LEGO Easter Bunny set which is still available at the LEGO Shop.
40085-1: LEGO Teddy Bear
127 pieces - $9.99
Winter/Valentine's Day set

LEGO S@H Product Description:
The LEGO 40085-1: Teddy Bear is the largest Winter/Valentine's Day set to be released, as well as the first to offer more than a build of a heart, or a heart-box. I think it was a great choice by LEGO to go with a bear, and the set looks fairly accurate. As you can see from the build, there are a lot of SNOT bricks (Studs-Not-On-Top), and overall I think it is a great little LEGO set for the piece count. Expectantly, this set has done well, especially after only a month of retirement (hint: part of the season/holiday with the highest CAGR and, well, a LEGO Seasonal set). So far, this little set has increased by 57.76%, and will hit $25 no problem. Jeff Mack did make a post, encouraging members to buy this set, so take it from the pros... These sets are going to do really well later on! Please note that unlike other smaller LEGO Seasonal sets, this set does not come in polybag packaging. Rather, it is a boxed set.
40086-1: LEGO Easter Bunny
106 pieces - $9.99
Spring/Easter set
 
LEGO S@H Product Description:
The 40086-1: LEGO Easter Bunny is visually very similar to the 40085 Teddy Bear. Once again, this set is very accurate for the piece count, and is very poseable with moving arms and ears. Investment-wise, I think this set wouldn't perform as well as the Teddy Bear primarily because we've gotten other LEGO bunnies before, whereas the Teddy Bear is extremely unique. Nevertheless, I expect this set to at least double in value in two year's time, which is still an extremely good return. Please note that unlike other LEGO Seasonal sets, this set does not come in polybag packaging. Rather, it is a boxed set.
READ HERE OF YOU SKIPPED OVER ANY OR ALL OF THE WORDS ABOVE!!
As a reader myself, I know that a lot of times, our eyes simply skip over large blocks of text and try to find the "important" part, which often times can be more interesting though not necessarily more important (I strongly reccommend you read the above paragraphs)! As a result, I've kindly provided a summary of the main pros and cons of investing in LEGO Seasonal sets.
Pros of LEGO Seasonal Sets:
 
With retail prices usually around $4.99 to $9.99, and usually marked down after the season ends, these sets are VERY affordable. Solid returns, with the average set bringing in 45.06% per year, according to BrickPicker's numbers. Easy to store, since many of the sets are polybags, they can be thrown into a plastic tub, smooshed, pressed, jostled, and still come out in great condition. Others are small boxed sets, which don't take up a large amount of room, great for the storage-challenged investor. Exclusive to LEGO S@H, and they have limited shelf life, helping to boost their secondary market price. Remember: generally the shorter the shelf life, the more "potential investment energy" sets have! Cons of LEGO Seasonal Sets:
Though the percentage returns are extremely high, the amount of effort that goes into selling these is much higher. Not a huge quantity of these sets are bought and sold, so getting rid of a high number of a single set could be problematic. Thanks for reading my article on LEGO Seasonal sets! Overall, I highly recommend buying and investing in LEGO Seasonal sets, especially for the novice investor. These LEGO sets don't require much initial investment, and therefore aren't extremely high risk. Though the selling might take longer than other large, expensive sets to sell, the overall Return of Investment (ROI) can be much more than that of largers sets! Don't hesitate to leave your thoughts below, and I'll be happy to answer any questions you might have!!
Average CAGR per Season/Holiday - 2009-2013 (* - only one set in respective category)
Sources: Brickipedia.com, Brickset.com, BrickPicker.com, LEGO S@H. **Article header image created using Adobe Photoshop CS3.**
Whether you are a major fan of the Star Wars saga or if you only know of the films through what you hear from others one cannot deny the powerhouse that is the Star Wars theme. But with over 70% of star wars lego sets being remakes you need to know how you can make informed decisions to protect your investments. Even with the gradual decline in popularity (save for UCS models and some of the other large sets) among AFOLs one can be fairly safe when investing in most Star Wars sets based on any of live action films including, though to a lesser extent, the prequels (though it's probably best to avoid the majority of sets under the Clone Wars sub-theme) So how can you know if a remake of a set will do well? This article aims to provide what is hopefully an easy and efficient way to find out. That being said one of the hazards of investing in the Star Wars theme, which among licensed themes only seems to affect this one, is that almost every set from the live action films has been remade at least once, in fact the X-wing alone has been remade on the minifigure scale five times the first model being introduced in 1999 with a rerelease of the same model in 2002 then a remake in 2004 another remake in 2006 with the most recent remake in 2012. Now there are two main problems that occur when investing in remakes one affects the newer model and the other affects the older model. The problem with investing in a new model is that some AFOLs look specifically to buy the older models for nostalgia. Indeed there is something about many of the older lego sets, whether it be the rose-coloured glasses of nostalgia or the simplicity of the sets themselves, that seems to draw some buyers and collectors. This is obviously bad for investors who were hoping that the newer model would be more appealing to the buyer. The problem with having invested in older models is that newer models are for the most part constructed much better and with a finer attention to detail and though it's unlikely for someone to invest in older models on a large scale, given that they have already experienced significant appreciation, it's important to remember that almost every model gets remade again eventually. The newest wave (March 2014) of Star Wars sets  consists mostly of remakes of ships and playsets from Episode III which was the most popular (referred to by some as the least terrible but still pretty bad) film from the prequel trilogy. The remakes this wave consist of:
 75038: Jedi Interceptor (a remake of the 2005 set 7256: Jedi Starfighter and Vulture Droid, but a remake of the same ship in different a colour-scheme was released in 2012 as 9494-1: Anakin's Jedi Interceptor)  75039: V-Wing Starfighter  (a remake of the 2006 set 6205: V-wing Fighter, but a grey and black version of the fighter was released in 2011 as 7915 Imperial V-wing Starfighter) 75040: General Grievous' Wheel Bike (another remake of a 2005 set 7255: General Grievous Chase)  75041: Vulture Droid (while not a direct remake the most recent version of the vulture droid came out in 2009 as part of 7751: Ahsoka's Starfighter and Droids)  75044: Droid Tri-Fighter (remake of 2010 set 8086: Droid Tri-Fighter)  75042: Droid Gunship (remake of 2008 set 7678: Droid Gunship)  75043: AT-AP (remake of 2008 set 7671: AT-AP Walker). How Can You Avoid Falling into a Bad Investment When Looking at Remakes?
To get an idea of how a remake may perform in the future we could take a look at how the previous version is doing but another potentially more helpful way is to look at how models that have been remade multiple times before have done in the past and are doing now. The examples here are of the X-wing, Y-wing and TIE Fighter. Now for simplicity's sake only three versions of each set are listed and the remakes were are all released about six years apart from each other. *One thing to note is that the first Y-wing was released in a set along with Darth Vader's TIE Fighter
 
Set Number/NameYear of ReleasePiece CountBrickset RatingRetail Price (USD)Price per BrickCurrent Market Value (USD)7140: X-wing Fighter19992664.47/5 (30 reviews)$29.99$0.28 (New)
$0.13 (Used)
$0.11 (Retail)$73.766212: X-wing Fighter20064374.66/5 (72 reviews)$49.99$0.14 (New)
$0.09 (Used)
$0.11 (Retail)$57.449493: X-wing Starfighter20125604.61/5 (13 reviews)$59.99$0.11 (New)
$0.07 (Used)
$0.11 (Retail)$61.09 
 
 
Set Number/NameYear of ReleasePiece CountBrickset RatingRetail Price (USD)Price per BrickCurrent Market Value (USD)7150: Y-wing Fighter19994094.17/5 (14 reviews)$49.99$0.21 (New)
$0.11 (Used)
$0.12 (Retail)$87.337658: Y-wing Fighter20074544.53/5 (58 reviews)$39.99$0.12 (New)
$0.06 (Used)
$0.09 (Retail)$55.009495: Y-wing Starfighter20124584.28/5 (8 reviews)$49.99$0.13 (New)
$0.07 (Used)
$0.11 (Retail)$57.45   
 
 
;
Set Number/NameYear of ReleasePiece CountBrickset RatingRetail Price (USD)Price per BrickCurrent Market Value (USD)7146: TIE Fighter20011714.18/5 (19 reviews)$19.99$0.25 (New)
$0.13 (Used)
$0.12 (Retail)$43.257263: TIE Fighter20051593.95/5 (27 reviews)$19.99$0.40 (New)
$0.15 (Used)
$0.13 (Retail)$64.139492: TIE Fighter20124134.45/5 (18 reviews)$49.99$0.14 (New)
$0.09 (Used)
$0.13 (Retail)$59.26 
;
 
What Does This Tell Us? 
Now obviously because all the models are various "ages" there are going to be differences in the prices (one interesting thing to note is that all the X-wing models are at a retail Price per Piece Ratio of $0.11) and while Brickset ratings are a good gauge for measuring future potential a high rating amongst remakes doesn't necessarily mean that that specific version will have the best return. Another factor to consider is how much of an improvement the model is over the previous version, but while this is still important it doesn't end up having much influence as the minifigures. Indeed even if the new model/playset itself is a significant improvement over past versions a better determinant of the potential for a remake is whether or not there are any updated and/or exclusive figures that are included with that version. For example: while the 2005 TIE Fighter (7263) didn't do much to improve on the original model (7146) the inclusion of the exclusive light-up Darth Vader has greatly boosted the appreciation setting 7263: TIE Fighter up to have the best current market value ($64.13) amongst the two other TIE Fighter model. Another example is of how the 2012 Y-wing, which has an exclusive celebration Leia and yellow R5 series, is already almost  doing better than the 2007 model, which only included a smiley faced rebel pilot and a old variant of a red astromech droid.
So How Can You Know if a Remake Will Do Well? 
Essentially the important thing to take away here is that even if a remake improves greatly upon the original it's also very important to have better or more exclusive figures than the previous version, however and this is, as always, very important to note, the price should as always be considered. A cautionary example is that of the most recent model of Darth Maul's Sith Infiltrator which was a massive improvement over the previous versions and boasted new variantss of Padme, Qui-Gon and Darth Maul (all of which were also vast improvements over their previous versions) plus the brand new minifigure Panaka. This set surely would have been a fantastic investment had it not been at the high price tag of CAD: $ 89.99 (USA: $ 69.99/GBR: £ 59.99) which hindered the return prospects. So as an easy way to remember the important factors when looking at investing in a remake, I came up with the acronym  P.I.E. which stands for Price (you should always be price conscious but you should also compare the remake price to that of the original). Improvement (upon the older model). Exclusive (an exclusive set is usually good but this is more about the figures and while a new variant of old an figure is good, an exclusive or brand new figure is nearly always better).
How do the New Remakes do When Analyzed with P.I.E?
75038: Jedi Interceptor a model of one of the more popular ships from the prequel trilogy that was featured prominently in Episode III. Price: CA $29.99 which gives it a good PPB (Price per Brick) ratio of $0.11. The previous version had a PPB of  $0.10 but also included a vulture droid. Improvement: The ship is much sturdier and more accurate to the movie than model 7256 from 2005 and has a new spring shooter on the underside. Exclusive: Both the minifigures are new variants of common figures, however the recent redesign of Episode III Anakin has only appeared in two other sets both of which were store exclusives (Toys R Us and Target respectively) 9526: Palpatine's Arrest (CA$ 119.99) and 9494: Anakin's Jedi Interceptor ( CA $49.99) so he's kind of hard to find. P.I.E. Analysis: 75038 will make a solid investment once it reaches EOL. Even though 9494 had a very similar design and was exclusive to retailer Target, the different colour-scheme and higher PPB ratio ($0.13) will make it distinct enough to allow 75038 perform well. 5/5 75039: V-Wing Starfighter based on a ship that was barely seen in Episode III and wasn't very popular. Price: CA $29.99 gives this set a pretty good PPB ratio of $0.12. The previous version had a PPB of $0.08. Improvement: The original V-wing (6205) was a solid but small set, something which this bulkier and more formidable model fixes. Exclusive: The minifigures are new variants of older figures with the clone pilot being fairly uncommon and popular. P.I.E. Analysis: 75039 will likely make a good investment post-EOL (boosted a bit by the inclusion of the clone pilot). Despite the fact that 7915 Imperial V-wing Starfighter was similar it had a different colour scheme and a higher PPB ($0.13) which gives this set the upper hand. 4/5 75040: General Grievous' Wheel Bike is another vehicle that was featured prominently in Episode III but wasn't particularly popular. Price: CA $29.99 puts this this sets at the desirable PPB ratio of $0.10 but even so feels like it should be $5 cheaper. The previous version had a PPB of $0.18 but had several large custom pieces. Improvement: The new wheel bike is far better than the 2005 version, this time using a bunch of pieces put together around an oversized technic rim instead of just two 8X8 round plates. Unfortunately this set fails to include Obi-Wan's large reptilian mount which was one of the major components of the 2005 version. This puts 75040 in an uncertain position investment-wise. Exclusive: Another set with new variants of existing figures this sets features Obi-Wan with leg printing and a slightly more detailed torso but the same face and hair as the variant from 9494: Anakin's Jedi Interceptor. Grievous uses body, head and leg pieces which are superior to the 2005 variant but mostly the same as his Clone Wars variant save for a change of colour (tan for Clone Wars, white for Episode III) and face printing. P.I.E. Analysis: 75040 will probably make a very good investment post-EOL. Compared to the 2005 version 75040 is far and away better especially when looking at the figure but it's missing a major component from the original (Obi-Wan's mighty steed). This along with the vehicle not being too popular itself puts 75040 in a dubious position investment wise. 3/5 75041: Vulture Droid is a model of the more common ships from the prequel trilogy that has appeared in several sets and is semi-popular. Price: CA $29.99 gives this set a pretty good PPB ratio of $0.12. The most recent set to have a vulture droid also had Ahsoka's jedi starfighter with a PPB of $0.14 . Improvement: The new Vulture Droid is much bulkier than its predecessor which contrary to a popular saying isn't always better since the Vulture Droid is supposed to be a small, nimble ship that is mass-produced in order to overwhelm the enemy but this version looks more like a sturdy bomber than a quick attacker. Exclusive: This set contains three minifigures two of which are semi-uncommon but pretty dull (a pilot droid and a buzz droid) with the third being a Neimoidian Warrior which is a brand new figure that is very-well done but based on a character that was hardly even seen in Episode III. P.I.E. Analysis: 75041 will be a risky investment even post-EOL. This set is much larger than previous versions which unfortunately makes it less accurate in comparison. The inclusion of the new Neimoidian Warrior could significantly boost appreciation later on but it's probably not likely. 2/5 75044: Droid Tri-Fighter is based on a ship that was seen only briefly at the beginning of Episode III. Price: CA $39.99 which gives it a good PPB ratio of $0.11. The previous version had a PPB of $0.09. Improvement: Only slightly improves on a model that was well constructed and accurate but not very popular. Exclusive: The minifigures are all new variants of existing figures. While the battle is very common, the buzz droid is dull and the red security droid is semi-rare, Chancellor Palpatine is quite a rare minifigure having been released in only two sets both of which were over CA $120 with one being a Toys R Us exclusive. Palpatine is a particularly good addition to this set since he was one of the most important and prominent figures in the entire Star Wars saga. P.I.E. Analysis: 75044 will be a good investment post-EOL. Despite the fact that the Tri-fighter isn't notably popular 75044 will have a good return due to the inclusion of the rare Chancellor Palpatine. 75042: Droid Gunship is also based on a ship that was only seen briefly in Episode III. Price: CA $59.99 which gives this a good PPB ratio of $0.11. The previous version had a PPB of $0.09. Improvement: This is quite a bit bigger, beefier and more imposing than the old model (which itself was pretty good) and it has the new spring shooter. Exclusive: The battle droid and super battle droid are both quite common and the new green clone trooper is feature in one of the new battle packs but this is the first time that Chewbacca has ever been redesigned which is kind of ridiculous since he's one of the main characters from the original trilogy. P.I.E. Analysis:75042 will be a solid if not very good investment The inclusion of the currently exclusive redesign of Chewbacca should be especially helpful to this set.  75043: AT-AP is based on a vehicle that was seen quite a bit in Episode III. Price: CA $74.99 gives this a a very good PPB of $0.08. The previous version had a PPB of $0.10. Improvement: This version of the AT-AP is a bit bulkier and stands much higher than the previous version and features the new spring shooter. Exclusive: This set features two battle droids and a super battle droid along with a new and much improved Clone Commander Gree and the brand new figure of Tarfful the wookiee. P.I.E. Analysis: 75043 will make a very good investment.
"OUR EXCLUSIVE"
Those two little words on Toys R' Us' website in regards to the Grand Emporium (10211) sparked a minor uproar recently among Lego investors. What does this mean? Will it change the Emporiums expected immanent retirement? Will 10211 languish forever at inflated TRU prices post EOL ala' Vampyre Castle? Should we all dump our large and exclusive sets in favor of poly bags and mini figures? Breath people, take a step back and chill. I, humbly, submit that it will have no impact what so ever.
First the obligatory history lesson. Released in 2010 Grand Emporium (10211) is part of Lego's modular building line. It has 2,182 pieces and comes with 7 mini figures, all for a MSRP of $149.99. As of the first quarter of 2014 it is considered among the favorites to be the next modular to be retired by Lego, and as a corner building and large exclusive the set is expected to perform well post EOl.
While TRU may consider The Emporium to be theirs, Wal Mart and Target may beg to differ. 10211 is available on both their websites, although Target has it listed for $159.99. (As of mid April 2014) This may be residual warehouse stock that needs to sell through but, I find that unlikely as the set has gone OOS at Target at least once since the TRU exclusive designation. It is also still available at S@H for regular retail, currently back ordered, but can still be purchased.
There is precedence for TRU making an exclusive out of a large, close to EOL, set that was previously more widely available. Set 9468, Vampyre Castle, from the Monster Fighters line was a widely available set that drew the "Our Exclusive" badge at TRU close to EOL. 9468 was also expected to perform well after retirement, but hasn't done as expected. First off, Vampyre Castles' official retirement date is February 1, 2014. Given the very brief time frame and TRU's inflated prices this set simply has not had sufficient time to sell out, it cannot and will not appreciate until that happens. Second, it's only been retired for two months. Patience, wait it out. 9468 had an MSRP of $99.99, TRU has it for $109.99. Vampyre Castle is no longer in production, so whatever stock that TRU has is it. In this case OOS on TRUs website is the new "retired".
One of the core principles of investing is "Buy and Hold". With this type of investment strategy TRU claiming a post EOL set as an exclusive and keeping it in the general marketplace a while longer is of little concern. Once Lego quits producing a set it's only a matter of time before that set is gone from the wild and the secondary market will take over. Will TRUs actions cause this to take an extra few months? Sure. Does it make any difference in a sets price ceiling two years later? Not in the least. If such a brief amount of time was such a detriment to a sets performance post EOL no one would own SSDs or Death Stars or Fire Brigades or...
The other side of this is the Technic line which had been a TRU exclusive for many years until very recently. Anyone invest in Technic while TRU was its sole US seller? Of course and with some very nice returns. Unimog, tracked crane, or quad bike anyone?
The whole point of this is to not over react. TRU keeping a modular alive a few extra months in no way will harm your future returns. Will this continue with other modulars? Only Lego and TRU know that answer.
"Should I invest in the Fire Brigade?"
"Yes."
"No."
"Maybe so."
"It has been available for way to long.  Collectors and investors already have all that they need.  You will have to wait a LONG time before the set appreciates."
"It is a modular. That alone will make the set a winner.
" I have seen this conversation take place in the Brickpicker forums many times.  The most common reply that I saw said something like "Everybody's brother (and dog and cat and pet gold fish) has one of these.  Don't risk your money."
While very knowledgeable people took both sides, it is clear that the Fire Brigade has been a winner - but why didn't this set fail?  The Fire Brigade was available for five years, wasn't it?  Most importantly, is a repeat possible?  
The Orc Forge was a steady investment.  People loaded up on these sets and bought more whenever possible.  What made it better was that if you spend $75 dollars or more, you got free shipping and (depending on the time) a free polybag or minifig.
We have not seen the predicted value surge.  The set can still be bought at $60 dollars - the price that it was hovering around right before it retired.  This set has a bright future, but the results have not been as expected.
These are two very different examples.  One had very low expectations and performed remarkably.  The other had very high expectations.  Even though the Orc Forge is still appreciating, the Fire Brigade was the better investment.  Both sets were bought in large quantities by investors.
Now before everyone jumps on me in the comments telling me "The Orc Forge is still appreciating," I would like to clarify that I do not think that the Orc Forge is a bad investment, but that it is appreciating slowly.  I am suggesting that the reason for this slow growth could be because it has flooded the market.
In this article we will discuss whether a set can "flood the market" or not using past examples.  What can a market flood do to the value of a set?
Part I:  The bubble
Oh boy.  Here we go again.  While the bubble is talked about a lot in the forums and is quite a controversial issue, there are a few things we can learn from this concept.
As more people become LEGO investors, there will be an increased demand and availability for certain sets.  Most likely, the market will not crash in one big explosion.  It will start with cracks at the foundation, that creep up to the top, eventually destroying the secondary market for LEGO (if there is such a thing as a bubble.)
Some of the cracks could be caused by flooding the market.  We should start paying attention to how many sets flood the market compared to how many are good investments.
What I am trying to point out is that IF there is a bubble, we will continue to see a rise in the numbers of sets bought which could lead to a flood in the market.  Not something to spend much time fretting over, but something to consider when buying a set.
My personal opinion is that IF the market is flooded, the following buying frenzy will pick the market up from the dust, and we will continue to live happily ever after buying and selling toys.
Part II: What is the effect?
I will use the Orc Forge as an example in this part.  We can all see that the Orc Forge has not been a failure, however, this set has not lived up to its positive predictions.
I believe that the Orc Forge could be worth $70 to $80 dollars if so many people had not bought it.  The Orc Forge, although with a positive appreciation at about 150% of its retail price, can be found in large amounts on eBay.  This was a popular product with investors - maybe a bit to popular.
Minecraft: The First Night is not retired yet, but its popularity went down a bit when it became widely available.  When considering a set to flip, resale value can be inversely proportional to the availability of a set.  This can also be true when considering a set that you think is flooding the market.
I do not believe that a set can become a complete failure because it has been widely available and distributed.  When a set is bought in large amounts, it tells us that it is popular.  There are always new LEGO fans and buyers that will be interested in old sets, no matter how available they were.  As more are bought, the availability will go down, and the set will grow in value.
If a set does flood the market, it might slow its growth down a little bit, but I think that that is the most that it will do.
Part III: How does this happen?
A set can flood the market when someone predicts early retirement and people buy lots of the item, expecting it to no longer be available at retail price.  Here is where I would like to point out a few facts:
The Orc Forge hung around for a while, allowing many people to buy lots of them.  The Fire Brigade did not wait before it retired.  It sold out, and then it was retired.
This is an important fact that we should notice.  From this, I have drawn the conclusion that a set does not flood the market in its life time, but in its last few days when the buying frenzy occurs.
Part IV: The Fire Brigade

True, lots of people had the Fire Brigade, but it had a quick retirement, putting people who did not have this set into panic mode.  The Fire Brigade is also a modular.  People new to the LEGO hobby that love the modulars will want to complete their collection, and it will not take much time before this set becomes known as one of the well-perfoming sets of the past.
Part V: How do I get Fire Brigades instead of Orc Forges?
It is always better to invest sooner than later.  Sets like the Fire Brigade disappeared quickly.  As sets get older, retirement becomes inevitable, and you have the recipe for another Fire Brigade.
Sets like the Orc Forge, however, stay around longer than expected.  They can be a good investment, but they take more time to appreciate.
Sets like the Orc Forge are easy to predict, but sets like the Fire Brigade are almost impossible to predict.  Again, the only way to end up with a better set is to buy sooner than later.
Part VI: Summing it up
Even though it is very possible for a set to flood the market, we must realize that a flood of the market alone cannot make a set fail.  Do not let one aspect alone keep you from buying a good investment.
I hope you have enjoyed this article.  Even though it was short, I tried to include helpful and interesting information.  If you disagree with me or have your own opinion about this subject, please share it in the comments.  Thanks for reading!
This blog follows on from my previous blogs presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.  Apologies as I’ve been a bit slack and missed the last data update that was in January and had data up to the 10th of Jan.  As such this update will be based on values as at the end of Feb-14.  This means comparisons in the “Last Rank” column of the tables will be comparing movements from the Nov-13 positions. Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:
I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension Information is based on US prices only Not all sets across all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though. I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know The Last Rank column indicates changes in ranking from the last Top 20 Blog (Nov data)   One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month) An entirely new set of entrants and that’s not really a surprise given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next and that none of the movers from Nov-13 have popped up again here.  Interestingly the newly released 70803 Cloud Cuckoo Palace from the LEGO Movie has made the list after obvious short term supply issues and high consumer demand. It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:   Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from August 2013 ) Another list dominated by new entrants.  Plenty of recently retired sets enjoying that initial post EOL price bump.  We also get the Advent Calendar’s in a trio in the middle, obviously enjoying a Christmas spike.   One Year Growth (change in Market Price from February 2013) Black Phantom, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Jawblade take the top spots after maintaining previous growth rates.  There are also quite a few of the much talked about Super Heroes sets that have recently retired, all translating that hype into very good growth performance.  Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.   Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from February 2012) Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods. 21001 John Hancock Center has plateaued a little in recent months and has slipped back 3 spots from the top handing the crown to Fire Lord. We can now start to see some of the performers in the shorter time periods that were presented in previous articles begin to push their way through onto the 2 year growth table, like the Rocka XL, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Black Phantom.   Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP) Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989. Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…  The Batman set that slips in at number 20 becomes the first Super Heroes set to do so, and perhaps shows the way for future super hero related sets?   Conclusions These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs.    
Lone Ranger Lego...  
 
Just wanted to let those three little words sink in for a second. Most on this site would agree that this line, with a couple exceptions, is not among the best of choices to place your investment dollars. I tend to agree with that sentiment. I am also a fan of building sets and as such this line is pure gold. The sets are reasonably priced,  have great builds, and come together as a group nicely. For the record I have grabbed a few of these sets at an extreme markdown  just in case people forget about the "Lone Ranger" aspect and see them for what they are, excellent Western themed sets.
The best investment potential in this line is undoubtedly 79111 Constitution Train Chase, but, it also suffers from having "Lone Ranger" as part of its name which makes very reasonably priced among Lego trains. As of early March of 2014 it is still available for under $100. For that you get a 37 " x 22" oval track and an excellent western style engine and tender. The rest of the set is nice, but not to the same standard as the engine. My only true complaint about this train is the lack of power functions, or even the ability to easily add power to the set. What's a Lego builder to do... MOC it.
You may have guessed by now that this blog is less about investing and more about how to add power to a train set. Although, a brief eBay check did bring up several sellers with listings for instructions only in the $30 range and one seller with a powered coal tender MOC for $109. So if you think outside the Lego box, there is money to be made here;)
My intention was to add power while still having the set look as close to its original design as possible. With this set there is simply no way to add power to the engine without drastically changing its appearance so my first thought was to use the coal tender but decided against it. Again it would have to be modified to the point of no longer looking like the same car and I simply had no extra pieces of the dark green color so I couldn't enlarge it if I wanted to. The flat car was also out for obvious reasons. Luckily the prison car lends itself nicely, it's a large open box, perfect to hold a battery box.
              
The above shots shot the car in its original state, the "box" portion rests on a 6x14 plate with the wheels attached underneath. I started with a completed car and removed the 6x14 and everything underneath it. I then took a pair of 4x4 black plates and added two 1x4 tiles to them along the outer edges. I added both to opposite sides of the train motor, but it looked "empty" so I also added a 2x4 brick to each side. When I was done it looked like this.

I then added the magnetic couplers and a 4x6 plate to each side to hold the top portion of the car.
 
Now for the battery box.

I then placed the box over the battery box and decided to add a 1x6 to each side to make it look like the original 6x14 was still in place. This is the finished product.


The result looks about as good as I had hoped, while the internal jail door had to be removed the functionality of blowing of the back of the car still works fine. What I was unprepared for was the speed default on Lego train motors, turns out that if you don't have a speed controller they are set to around Mach 5 and will send a small train such as this flying off the tracks, much to the delight of my seven year old. Looks like I'll be getting the IR sensor and remote after all. There is room inside the car to add it and the wire can run through the existing hole where the lever is.
I hope y'all enjoyed this little tutorial and who knows there may even be money to be made adding power to sets like this and flipping them, if anyone tries that let me know how it goes.
 
Parts list.
1. Lego Set 79111 Constitution Train Chase
2. 2x 3032 4x6 plate dark blue/grey
3.  2x 3666 1x6 dark blue/grey
4. 4x 3710 1x4 black
5. 2x 3031 4x4 black
6. 2x 3001 2x4 black brick
7. 88000 AAA battery box $12.99
8.  88002 Train Motor $13.99
9. 8884 IR Receiver $14.99
10.  8879 IR Speed Remote $12.99
All the parts are common and inexpensive, I had all of them in my parts bins, the electronics I ordered from Lego for a total of $55.00. This was a fun and fairly inexpensive little project that yielded a nice little powered train, or at least, it will once the IR receiver and remote arrive.
You've heard of it on the news, in the papers, and online. It created overnight millionaires while making others broke. Governments are afraid of it and the public is confused by it. But it is here to stay.
What am I talking about, you ask?  Crypto-currency
In 2009, an anonymous online entity, going by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto, released a tremendously well-researched and thought out paper;explaining how an online, peer-to-peer, currency which would not be regulated or backed by any government could change the face of world finance. Shortly after, he released the first example of such a currency, Bitcoin.
Due to the technical and anonymous nature of Bitcoin (and crypto-currency in general), the digital currency adoption started out slow and within more "internet advanced" circles of people. After a few years and a minuscule adoption rate, Bitcoin started to gain notoriety. This was mainly due to the creation of a "dark-net" marketplace, The Silk Road, in 2011. Unfortunately, this marketplace seemed to specialize in nefarious and illegal activities such as drug dealing and weapons trafficking. The users of the marketplace used Bitcoin as the go to currency for transactions because its use was anonymous and incredibly difficult to track.
Fast forward to 2013; The Silk Road was shut down but Bitcoin knowledge started to go mainstream. Services like exchanges, payment processors, and wallets (coin storage) began to spring up. The tech world seemed to catch a crypto-currency fever and it hasn't looked back since. In November and December of 2013 the value of Bitcoin sky-rocketed to $1200 per coin. People became millionaires in the blink of an eye.
Today, there are many more varieties of crypto-currency. These currencies, such as Litecoin and Dogecoin, were created to improve on Bitcoin's original code and theory. And they are also gaining an incredible amount of traction in the financial world.
My personal favorite crypto-currency is Dogecoin. It is the second largest coin in terms of transaction volume and active users, only behind Bitcoin. It has a massive community behind it and is gaining wide-spread, mainstream acceptance as it is easy to get into and learn.
Now, why should you consider selling your LEGO sets for crypto-currency? There are many reasons, but for the sake of brevity in today's introduction, I will give you two.
It is a brand new technology and you would have a chance to get in on the ground-floor on something that is shaping up to change the world. Only a relatively small portion of the population is using crypto-currency today, but as more merchants accept it, more people will use it. With the creation of online and in-store payment processors there is absolutely zero risk. These payment-processors (think "Visa" or "American-Express"), make it absolutely painless to accept crypto-currency. Many of them, such as Coinbase and Moolah, automatically transfer crypto-currency to other more "common" currency such as USD or EUR. This makes it so that you can reach an even larger audience than you are today; the people using government-backed currency and the people who are using crypto-currency.
This is only the first post of an entire blog in which I am to educate all off you about the benefits and processes of accepting digital currency. If you have any specific questions or would like to learn more about a certain topic, don't hesitate to ask!
So you've spent your time researching the best sets and held them past EOL. You've watched their value climb and the time has come to start selling them on eBay, all is well until one day you get your first angry e-mail from a less than pleased buyer. What to do, What to do...
There is no way that you can spend any amount of time selling items on eBay or any other platform without the occasional issue popping up. While some of the forums may make it seem that every single transaction is a major battle and others paint a beautiful picture of happy customers through rose colored glasses reality is, as always, somewhere between the two. In most cases how you respond to the buyers initial contact will often set the tone for the entire exchange. While every case is in some ways unique most can be divided into two categories from your perspective; preventable issues and non-preventable issues.
First, a quick bit about my eBay history, I have had a single eBay account since 2002 and in that time have received 4 neutrals and 1 negative (the negative came about three weeks ago and eBay removed it) against over 1000 positive. I tend to sell around 200 items per year, although I do not sell consistently. I will sell 50 or more items in a month and then not list anything for three or four months, just depends on how busy I am with my real "jobs". In the same time frame I have only purchased 10 or so items on eBay so nearly all of my feedback is from selling. As far as knowing eBays policies there is a local amphibian who has forgotten more about them than I will ever know, but I have spent over 2 decades in various forms of retail and have found that in most cases it is better to simply provide good service and only involve eBay as a last resort. I am not implying that you don't need to have a good working knowledge of policy, you most certainly do, just that by providing good service you can resolve most issues.
Before I get into what to do after an issue is brought to your attention I want to make one thing perfectly clear. The easiest and most effective way to resolve any issue is to prevent it from happening in the first place. Take good pictures, make sure your descriptions are clear and accurate. Does the box have a crease in it? Disclose it and take a picture of it. Are you selling a new set without the mini figures or some other key element? Say so in the description AND the title. Assume that every single potential buyer is in kindergarten and needs everything explained. By that, I do not mean write a novel, no one will read it if you do, just make sure that your description is accurate and any potential fault is highlighted. You also need to be careful with how you describe your items. I have been selling on eBay for over ten years and have NEVER claimed a box to be "mint", your definition of mint and that of your buyer may vary considerably. Instead of "mint in package" try "new in sealed package", and then mention any shelf wear. I recently sold a Willis Tower with a dented box, I disclosed the problem in my listing and took a close up photograph of the damage. The buyer left me a positive. Point is be honest with your listings and take excellent photographs and you will avoid 98.764% of any potential preventable issues. And 75.6% of statistics are made up on the spot.
No matter how careful you are in your listings mistakes will be made on occasion. You forgot that one piece in a used set, used too little bubble wrap or too much, sent the wrong item, etc... You will mess up. So now you've just gotten a message from a buyer and they aren't happy. Now what? First off, and this is important, if you anger easily or are having a bad day step away and grab a snack, or a drink. Whatever it takes to relax and respond to the situation with an even temper. Last year I sold a set and had unintentionally used a few pieces of the wrong color (I was using them as place holders and forgot to replace them with the correct pieces). The set was a used 6211 and the buyer was, justifiably, angry as I had listed it as complete minus a couple mini figures. My gut reaction was one of defensiveness and had I responded at that moment the situation would not have ended well for me. Instead I just took a few minutes to calm down and collect my thoughts and offered to either replace the pieces if they would let me know which ones were wrong or take $5 off of a $130 set. They took the five bucks and left positive feedback to boot. All of this was done through eBays messaging system. Do not under any circumstances communicate with a buyer outside of eBays system, it leaves a clear and complete record of all communications between you and your buyer should eBay need to get involved. That also brings up another point, in cases where you messed up, do everything that is fair and keep eBay out of it if at all possible.
I define non-preventable issues as anything that happens after an item leaves your hands or if a buyer flakes out or tries to scam you. Lost or smashed in transit? Buyer decide they really didn't need that $3000 Millennium Falcon? Someone leave you negative feedback because Leia was in a bikini and they got offended (someone once tried to return a Leia from 6210 to me for this reason)? None of these issues can be prevented by you. Most of these are also simple to resolve. If a buyer changes their  mind and wants to cancel a transaction because (insert random pointless reason here) cancel it and re-list the item. It is not worth the trouble of trying to force someone to pay. Yes, it's annoying, get over it and move on. If they try and mess with you by not accepting the cancellation, so long as all communication went through eBay, it's a simple phone call and you get your final value fees back. Returns are trickier. I sell mostly loose sets, on those I state "no returns", but it doesn't really matter because if a buyer opens a SNAD (Significantly Not As Described) case I will most likely have to return the item anyway. When I do sell a boxed set I will offer a two week return where the buyer pays return shipping so long as the item is still sealed. It is better to spell out your own policy than have eBay do it for you. I have yet to have to return anything, although I have at times given small partial refunds.
Shipping. I will not enter into a USPS vs UPS vs FedEx debate, or carrier bashing session as they quickly become. I will only say this. ALWAYS USE TRACKING. eBay will side with you if a buyer claims an item never arrived so long as you tracked the shipment and there was a scan that shows "delivered". Without a delivery scan you will have to refund the money. For items over $250 eBay requires a signature conformation, which is nice because I insure any shipment over $100 and USPS requires signature conformation for any insured item over $200. Insurance is there to protect the SELLER (that's you) so use it on any dollar amount that is higher than what you feel comfortable losing. As far as smashed packages go, pack all items well, use the correct amount of material to protect the item. If anything happens in transit, which it will at some point, it's on you. I will usually offer a small refund in these cases, which has worked so far and is much cheaper than a return. Why do you think Amazon is so quick to offer a 20% refund when they send you a padded envelope pancake?
Up until now I have assumed that both sides were behaving honestly. What about buyers with the  intention to defraud? Protecting yourself from fraud as a seller boils down to following the rules. That, and not accepting checks from the Central Bank of Nigeria as a form of payment. I only take PayPal. It's simple, quick, and for the most part reliable. In the last 3 months I have had a handful of buyers ask about other forms of payment, one even tried to buy a BIN when I forgot to mark "immediate payment", I denied them all. The guy who tried to buy my BIN first tried to talk me in to taking a registered check and when I declined he said repeatedly that he would open a PayPal account but never did and then just stopped responding to me. I opened a case against him and re-listed the item. I should also mention that he had 0 feedback and had joined eBay the day he tried to buy my BIN.  To me the whole situation just screamed "scam". With PayPal, in order to be covered you must send to the address confirmed by PayPal. No exceptions.
There are a plethora of ways to be scammed by a buyer, with "can I pay by check, money order, wire transfer, etc...", " I never got it", and "it's broken" being the most common in my experience. I've already covered how to protect yourself from the first two, the last one is not as simple. Even new items can be defective that's why a return policy is necessary. At the same time any return has the potential to be fraudulent. That is when you call eBay.
In all my years of selling I have only contacted eBay a handful of times. In the aforementioned Leia bikini case the buyer tried a SNAD case, but because of the pictures in my listing showing Leia in a bikini and the e-mail exchange pointing out the actual issue (the buyer was a nut job who was offended by a pretty plastic girl in a metal bikini) I won the case. Looking back it may have been easier just to take the return and block the buyer. But, come on, my listing title was "Leia in a Bikini from LEGO set 6210". Point is, try to avoid bringing eBay into a situation, but don't be afraid to do so if all else fails. That's why they have a CS department.
I hope that made sense and that some of you found it useful. And that I didn't scare anyone away. So long as you take care with your listings and follow some very simple rules the vast majority of you experiences with selling will be positive and profitable ones.  
There has been a lot of success in the world of LEGO investing, but there have also been many losses.  In a previous article, I wrote about successful sets, but to be successful, we must know how to avoid failures.
There are many things that can make a set flop, like an unpopular theme, bad minifigures, poor design, etc.  We must know the good from the bad, learn from the past, and carefully evaluate all advice given to us in able to succeed in LEGO investing.  
Unsuccessful Themes of the Past

With a disappointing CAGR of -7.90%, Prince of Persia is one of the biggest failures in history.  The unsuccessful movie and the big "Disney" logo on the boxes do not help this theme at all.
 
 
Set Name Retail Price Number of Pieces Market Value (New) CAGR 7569 Desert Attack $10.99 67 $11.26 0.61% 7570 The Ostrich Race $19.99 169 $13.94 -8.62% 7571 The Fight for the Dagger $29.99 258 $22.51 -6.92% 7572 Quest Against Time $49.99 506 $33.59 -9.46% 7573 Battle of Alamut $79.99 821 $66.88 -4.38%  
As you can see, you can still buy most of the sets from this theme below retail.  Unlike Pirates of the Caribbean, there is not one successful set in Prince of Persia.
What went wrong?
I have to admit that I really liked the Prince of Persia theme from a collector's standpoint.  The sets and minifigures were both designed very well, and the surplus of tan pieces made for great part packs.  Unfortunately, the good design was not enough to make this theme a winner.
Prince of Persia received a 5/10 from most critics and left many fans disappointed.  The idea of creating a movie from a video game itself was a random idea that did not turn out well.  The movie was the downfall of these sets.

World Racers was an un-licensed theme that performed slightly better than Prince of Persia.  The background story did not make sense and the idea of racing around the world while throwing explosives at each other was... weird.  There were lots of vehicles, but not much variety.  There was not much AFOL or TFOL appeal in this theme.  World Racers was targeted toward kids 7-12, and it tends to be the TFOLs and AFOLs that fuel the secondary market.
 
 
Set Name Retail Price Number of Pieces Market Value (New) CAGR 8863 Blizzard's Peak $59.99 504 $38.75 -10.35% 8864 Desert of Destruction $89.99 961 $75.73 -4.22% 8896 Snake Canyon $9.99 57 $14.78 10.29% 8897 Jagged Jaws Reef $19.99 191 $14.96 -6.99% 8898 Wreckage Road $29.99 292 $26.40 -3.14% 8899 Gator Swamp $39.99 354 $30.05 -6.89% If you look closely at this theme, you will notice a similarity to Prince of Persia.  Only the smallest set has a positive CAGR.
What went wrong?
This was a kid's theme.  There was not much variety, as all the sets were vehicles that were either green or red.  I believe that these two reasons are why these sets failed.  There is nothing wrong with a kid's theme, but when it does not have much effort put into it, the results can be disastrous.

I do not want to get too off-topic by talking about a theme completely different from the others, but I would like to touch on the LEGO Games theme before we move on.
If you would look at the overall CAGR of this theme, you would find that it is 3.37%.  I was very surprised when I saw this because I knew that there were not many sets in this theme with a positive CAGR.  I will explain the positive CAGR later.
The one reason that the Games theme failed is because it does not stay true to the LEGO system.  People buy LEGO to build, not to play board games.  Even though the idea of a Games theme was creative and had a lot of potential, it never really took off because they had the wrong audience.
The reason for the positive CAGR of the theme is because it was such a failure.  I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but it will make sense when I explain it.
LEGO launched this theme with much enthusiasm and advertising.  Some of the most well-known sets include Minotaurous and Creationary.  LEGO had planned to make some more board games with licenses.  One was Star Wars: The Battle of Hoth, which was only available in the UK.  Two others, The Battle of Helm's Deep and Batman.  The last two never made it to the shelves.  LEGO decided to cancel the sets due to the lack of success the LEGO Games theme had experienced.  As to how some got into the hands of resellers, I do not know, but you should be able to find a small amount on eBay with prices ranging from $150 to $300 and CAGRs at 100 to 200 percent.  If it had not been for these sets, the Games theme would be right next to Prince of Persia and World Racers.
I know that there were many more themes that failed (e.g. Toy Story, Atlantis, etc.)  As with my previous article, the goal here is not to list every single set that failed in LEGO history.  The goal is to list enough data that you can know which sets will fail and which sets will succeed.
Analyzing the Data
After researching these themes, there are a few conclusions that can be made.
A set or theme can be a failure if...
#1.  ...the movie the theme is based on is unpopular
#2.  ...the theme is targeted toward kids and does not have much AFOL or TFOL appeal
#3.  ...the design is poor
#4.  ...the theme does not stay true to the LEGO system
The list goes on and on, but the main ones that affect a set the most is reason #1 and #2.  #1 was clearly the reason that Prince of Persia failed, while #2 is the reason that themes like Toy Story and Cars failed.  Reason #3 is why we find bad sets in a great theme, and reason #4 is why Clikits (for those of you who do not know what "Clikits" is, it was basically a jewelry theme.) and Games failed.  This should give you enough information to discern the good from the bad.
Possible Failures of the Future
Predicting failures is much harder than predicting success.  When looking for failures, you have to look at how popular the movie is that it came from, the minifigures in the set, and how big sales have been in the set or theme's lifetime.  When Toy Story retired, I can remember massive discounts.  Even at huge discounts, it was hard to get rid of the sets.  POTC is one theme that I would consider a failure, but that does not mean that there were a few successes in the theme.  No matter how unpopular the movie or theme is, people like ships and trains.  Everyone can remember the Queen Anne's Revenge and the Black Pearl.  Despite the huge discounts on these sets and the failures in the rest of the theme, these two sets were a huge success after the theme retired.
#1. Galaxy Squad
This is a very controversial theme.  Some people think that these are the best LEGO sets ever made, and others think that they are lame.  I think that they are neat, but I would not invest too much money in them.  The previous Space Police and Alien Conquest themes failed.  I think that TLG put more effort in these two themes than Galaxy Squad.  What makes this theme different?  Is there any difference?  I would say yes.  The Galaxy Squad sets have great designs.  If there is anything that will save this theme from failure, it is that.  I am not saying that these are terrible investments, just that there are better themes to put your money on.
#2. Lone Ranger
Most of the Lone Ranger sets are well designed, but the Disney logo on the box makes the sets unstable investments.  There are many examples of sets that were well designed with exceptional minifigures that failed with the Disney logo on the box.  POTC, Prince of Persia, and Toy Story come to mind.  Like I said before, why invest in possible failures when there are so many better options out there?
I think that Lone Ranger will be similar to POTC.  I believe that the train will be a winner.  This is just my opinion from what I have researched.  You may or may not have success using my opinion, because it is just a human opinion.
Summing it Up
As you can see, there are not nearly as many investmenfailures as there are successes, but when failures come, we must be able to identify them and steer clear from the bad and the ugly.
There has been a rather lively debate about the suitability of the new Microfighter line as an investment vehicle. Few new lines have been as polarizing as Microfighters (I'm taking about you Chima), it seems that you either love them or hate them with few taking the middle ground. For those that haven't seen them, the Microfighters line consists of a small build of some of the more recognizable Star Wars ships with a "seat" for a mini figure. The effect of having the minifigure seated in such small ships is comical, the sets, as one forum member put it, resemble the cars from Mario Cart. Currently there are six different sets, they are:
75028 Clone Turbo Tank 96 pieces
75029 AAT 95 pieces
75030 Millennium Falcon 94 pieces
75031 TIE Interceptor 92 pieces
75032 X-Wing Fighter 97 pieces
75033 Star Destroyer 97 pieces
All sets are priced with an MSRP of $9.99 and come with one mini figure (the AAT comes with a droid).  While $9.99 may seem a little high for what amounts to an overgrown and boxed polybag, with the piece count of close to 100 each set has a PPB in the $0.10-$0.11 range, and you get the minifig. With the sets being so new they should Not be purchased at this time to hold long term. They may have some potential for turbo flipping as all six are currently sold out at S&H. Of the six the consensus seems to be that the Millennium Falcon and TIE Interceptor show the most promise for this purpose. If you do plan to attempt to flip these sets, they must be purchased at a substantial discount, a quick look at eBays sold listings show that the Falcon is consistently bringing $10.00-$15.00 as a BIN. A key driving force to this may be the unique printed cockpit piece in this version of the Falcon.
For more of a long term perspective lets go back to 2003/2004 and look at a few similarly sized sets, although without mini figures.  
  4492-1 4484-1 4488-1 4491-1     STAR DESTROYER X-WING FIGHTER & TIE ADVANCED MILLENNIUM FALCON MTT Set Pieces 87 76 87 99 Set Year 2004 2003 2003 2003 Theme STAR WARS STAR WARS STAR WARS STAR WARS Sub Theme MINI BUILDING SET MINI BUILDING SET MINI BUILDING SET MINI BUILDING SET Retail Price (USD) $6.99 $3.99 $6.99 $6.99 CAGR 8.02  14.69  17.60  6.95  Six Month Performance Price Per Brick $ 0.17 New $ 0.13 Used $ 0.08 Retail $ 0.20 New $ 0.16 Used $ 0.05 Retail $ 0.40 New $ 0.33 Used $ 0.08 Retail $ 0.14 New $ 0.09 Used $ 0.07 Retail LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: NEW SETS
A breakdown and comparison of new values for your selected sets. Current Market Value: New $ 14.67 $ 15.33 $ 34.76 $ 13.69 One Month Change: New 4.79%  2.42%  1.67%  — Six Month Change: New 14.71%  7.43%  36.85%  1.79%  One Year Change: New 13.35%  3.02%  7.72%  10.35%  Change from Retail: New 109.87%  284.21%  397.28%  95.85%  LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: USED SETS
A breakdown and comparison of used values for your selected sets. Current Market Value: New $ 10.93 $ 12.00 $ 28.80 $ 9.33 One Month Change: Used — — 6.16%  — Six Month Change: Used 2.44%  14.71%  16.13%  13.05%  One Year Change: Used 7.16%  20.00%  14.06%  1.48%  Change from Retail: Used 56.37%  200.75%  312.02%  33.48%    Of these older sets the Millennium Falcon 4488 is the clear winner at nearly five times original retail, more interesting is that it's up almost 37% in the last six months. It's acting more like a set that's just recently retired than one that's been out for ten years. While the MTT has yet to double its MSRP over the same time period. It would seem the the fastest hunk of junk in the galaxy is a popular ship among collectors. I expect a similar pattern to repeat with these newer sets, if you chose to buy and hold any of the Microfighter line grab some Falcons. Now, however, is not the time to be loading up on these. They were just released and should have at a minimum 18 months to two years before retirement. Wait it out and watch how they do in the primary market.              
I have never liked Chess as a kid or as a teenager. It was just one of those games that looked boring and bland. A game for nerds. However in the past several years after buying my first iphone, I could not find a app that suited my needs. Ultimately I needed an game that required some strategy and would never get boring. A game that I could improve on over time and a game that would pass time while I was playing it. That game ended up being Chess.
At first, I was VERY BAD at Chess, and in some ways I still am. I remember losing to a group of kids while on a cruise. After 100 or so games I realized that Chess was not so bad. In fact It became an addiction.
Now here I am finally wanting to get a customized Chess board. Since I am into Fantasy and Medieval characters, I thought about buying the "Crusaders Chess" set.
However I want my Chess pieces to be able to be customized and I preferred my pawns to be holding shields and swords. I just could not justify the one or two hundred dollars to get this Chess set it. The pieces are nicely painted but will wear and crack and this was something I did not want.
While browsing eBay, I found this this amazing chess set! The Castle Giant Lego Chess Set. Unfortunately this set was released in 2008 and is a limited edition set. It was priced at $200 back then but now fetches anywhere between $1500-1800. A fairly steep price for an Awesome set. Until Lego decides to launch another limited edition Chess set I have decided to custom make my own!
  Here is another set that is readily available for $50. The Kingdom Chess Set. The pieces are nice but the Chess board is small and untiled. This would mean for every move I would have to pull the piece off one section of the board and try to push it back on the desired square without the piece falling apart on me.
It was then I decided to build my own chess board using the "Castle Giant Lego Chess Set" as a template and even improving on the individual pieces.
Budget? $200-400 And so my journey began.
I scoured Bricklink and eBay and bought minifigures and all the pieces i needed. I also spent hours looking for the instruction manual on Google for the pieces from "The Kingdom Chess set".
End result:
White army overview
  Here is the red army showing the front pawns (with the center commander pawn). The commander pawn holds a two handed battle axe and is armored. Behind them are the two wizard bishops and knights. At the rear are the two rooks.     Black Army overview
  Here is an overview of the black army showing the black pawns up front with two black knights flanking the two black bishops. Behind them are two cave trolls which can be switched in for the black rooks. I thought it would be more interesting to have the black pawn army led by a single commander pawn (as the center pawns are the strongest in a game of Chess).         INVESTMENT VALUE?   Well - as this is made from Lego minifigures I expect them to at least hold their value.   For Chess players I expect them to find this set very desirable and if I wish I may be lucky enough to find an interested buyer.   I certainly do not expect this chess set to escalate in value like the Giant Lego Chess Set; however I am enjoying this set a lot more than what i would with the Giant Lego Chess Set as it is tailored to my liking. If ever I decide to have a game a Chess with a friend, i show them my Custom Lego Chess Set and it certainly becomes a focal point for discussion.  
If like me you’ve ever struggled with the temptation that having a closet or room stuffed with shiny new Lego sets for investment presents in terms of building and playing or displaying them, this short blog may help! Rarely have I succumbed to this temptation.  I tend to try and keep my collecting hobby side of the Lego game separate from the investing side.  There is occasion where I have dipped in to the investment pool to provide a last minute gift for a young lad or lass, or when I really just had to build the Lone Ranger Train. One thing that helps me do this is looking at the decision to open an investment set with a clear approach involving the true cost of doing so. Often I hear talk on the forums of “Buy what you like, so you can open it if investment growth isn’t as strong as you’d hoped” or “I only paid 50% of retail for it so I might just open and build it…”  The decision to open a set should be made with as much information as possible when you are a profit maximising investor. When you open a set the price you paid for it should have almost zero consequence on that decision. This is a very important mind shift for most people.  The trade off you make when opening the set does not relate to the price paid, instead it is: When you open a set the true cost of doing so is the opportunity cost you forgo.  This is mainly related to the current secondary market price minus a few other factors. If you have a set in hand the trade off you make when “consuming” it is the price you could currently sell it for.  This can be approximated using the Brickpicker current market price for new sets, or you can estimate that cost yourself if you could sell it locally for a different amount.  Basically you take what the maximum is you think you could successfully sell it for right now.  Now from that there are a few deductions to take into account:
The listing and selling fees if applicable Time to set up the sales listing Packaging and postage Time to post or meet the seller Tax from any profits remaining if applicable If you can estimate those costs you’ll have a pretty good idea of the expected gross revenue you would have from selling the set.  This is you opportunity cost.   Now there are a few other things to take into account as well. Firstly when you open a Lego set to build you don’t “consume” it.  A Lego set is not like a candy bar or loaf of bread, after using it you are still left with a tangible asset – the used set.  This used set still has a value.  The used value of sets are tracked by Brickpicker as well and you can estimate just like as above for a new set.  So if you plan on keeping your opened set indefinitely then you can’t discount your opportunity cost by this used set value.  But if you don’t and you just want to have the build experience, take a few photos, and maybe display it for a few weeks you can subtract the used set value to determine what the act of opening has cost you. Things get more complicated if your intentions are to build the set and display it for a longer term, or if you think you’ll keep it forever but change your mind later on and decide to sell it.  To work out the cost here you’ll need two estimates.  The future value of a used set and the future value of the set if it is still new and sealed.  This can obviously be pretty hard to determine.  My advice would be to look at the current prices for similar sets to the one in question.  Check out similar sized sets and sets from the same theme and look for the price difference between a sealed set and a used one.  That should give you a bit of a guide to the future opportunity cost. So in conclusion, if you want to open a set go ahead, but remember the price for doing so is not the cash you paid at the retail counter but the opportunity cost incurred by not being able to sell a new sealed set.
Much has been said of all the shiny new Star Wars and Super Heroes sets for 2014, but in my opinion Cuusoo has the most interesting and potentially most profitable sets this year. For now I want to take a look at 21104, Curiosity Rover. It is some what of an enigma. An S&H limit of only 1 and a "Limited" designation in the catalog has given the Rover a wild ride and it hasn't even been out for  two months yet.  It seems that upon its initial release it sold out in  mere 7 hours and each subsequent release hasn't even lasted that long. What is it about 295 pieces of geeky goodness that can drive sales trends like that? Let's take a look at some similar sets.
 
 
  Hayabusa Minecraft Arch Studio CuriosityRover     2012 2013 2014 Theme CUUSOO CUUSOO ARCHITECTURE CUUSOO Sub Theme CUUSOO CUUSOO ARCHITECTURE CUUSOO Retail Price (USD) $49.99 $34.99 $149.99 $0.00 CAGR 68.89  65.28  82.88  — Six Month Performance — Price Per Brick $ 0.23 New $ 0.16 Used $ 0.14 Retail $ 0.10 New $ 0.10 Used $ 0.07 Retail $ 0.28 New $ 0.13 Used $ 0.12 Retail N/A LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: NEW SETS
A breakdown and comparison of new values for your selected sets. Current Market Value: New $ 85.33 $ 45.95 $ 336.33 $ 0.00 One Month Change: New 1.07%  20.54%  22.61%  — Six Month Change: New 20.00%  5.80%  82.79%  — One Year Change: New 52.29%  20.80%  — — Change from Retail: New 70.69%  31.32%  124.23%  — LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: USED SETS
A breakdown and comparison of used values for your selected sets. Current Market Value: New $ 59.75 $ 46.27 $ 153.86 $ 0.00 One Month Change: Used — 4.76%  — — Six Month Change: Used 1.58%  21.54%  — — One Year Change: Used 3.91%  7.46%  —   Change from Retail: Used 19.52%  32.24%  2.58%  — First off, yes I know that 21050 isn't Cuusoo, more on that in a minute. Second, 21100 Shinkai 6500 was only released in Japan and had a very small production run. I considered it to be an outlier and am not including it in this analysis.
Third, 21104 has no data, it hasn't been out for two months yet. I'm hoping to fill in some of the blanks.
From a design standpoint the Rover most closely resembles 21101 Hayabusa. Hayabusa was released in 2012 with an original retail of 49.99. The Rover and Hayabusa have a similar piece count and both are based on actual space craft. Hayabusa has been retired for less than a year and new examples currently sell for over $85.00. So that's it, a CAGR near seventy less than a year after retirement. Homework done, let's party. Not quite.
Minecraft. Set 21102 was also released in 2012, it has a piece count of 480 and an original MSRP or $34.99. Minecraft also had a stated production run of 10,000 sets. They lasted about ten minutes and eBay quickly sent the price into triple digits. TLG responded by releasing another run, and another, and another. The set is still available at retail.
Architecture Studio. While 21050 has four times the piece count and is four times the price of the Rover I bring it up for a reason. Anyone who even casually followed Lego from October of 2013 to February of 2014 should be familiar with this set. Released in 2013 and exclusive to Barnes & Noble brick and mortar stores (it was available elsewhere online) Arch Studio was one of those sets that TLG completely underestimated.
By November this set with a $150 retail was easily bringing $250 on eBay and as supplies dwindled after the first of the year prices surpassed $350. In early February TRU released about 120 units with the usual TRU markup, but prices held. Then a couple weeks later Target released a large number of sets and S&H quickly followed. So endith the high eBay returns. Before Christmas of 2013 as this set was aggressively flipped there were highly animated discussions on when this set would go EOL or if it was already gone. Both sides were adamant, both sides had very good arguments and both sides lacked one thing. Evidence.
Now for the hard part. While at first glance Curiosity Rover has much in common with Hayabusa those similarities disappear with closer inspection. Hayabusa, while it is a cool set, is more targeted for a Japanese audience. It's a Japanese satellite on a Japanese mission. The Rover is targeted for the American consumer. It's an American craft and as such has had much more exposure to a wider audience. While I had to look up Hayabusa's mission, I was already aware of and interested in Curiosity Rovers mission. The Rover also has a much longer mission and more public mission, anyone can google its latest and greatest images and discoveries (do it, the pictures are amazing).  More public awareness can only help the returns of this set.
Now for the really hard part. The Curiosity Rover was released on January 1, 2014 with an MSRP of $29.99. It sold out in seven hours. It has had quantities show up on S&H at least twice since its initial release and has sold out within an hour on each occasion. Currently it is only available on S&H, with some showing up at Lego Discovery Centers, and has a U.S. limit of one (those lucky Europeans have a limit of five).  This set will do well, how well depends on what TLG does. Will they let it sell out only to release in cycles like Minecraft? Will it disappear for a few months only to show up unannounced like Arch Studio? As of this writing the BIN average is around $75.00 shipped. That's about double retail after fees. Do you hold? Should you flip? To be, or not to be? I have a hard time not flipping a set I can double if it has not even been out for two months. I also believe this set will see substantial growth after EOL, so I am holding several. Will it see the same gains as 21100? I don't think so, at least not for many years after retirement. It's simply too small and isn't rare enough. Will it out perform Hayabusa? Without question. Get this set. Flip or hold, ask me in three years which was the correct strategy.      
Photographing LEGO minifigures, boxes and sets can be a difficult task to do correctly.  It can mean the difference between selling or not selling an item on eBay or similar sites.  Before I found out how to create this light box, it was a time consuming process to set up a good lighting system, take pictures of my minifigures, and list them on eBay.  When I was in a time crunch, I would just put the minifigures flat on a piece of paper, which did not look the greatest.  This light box is easy to construct, deconstruct, and store away.  The purpose of this article is to show you how to easily light minifigures or other small objects without the constant hassle of setting up and tearing down a complex lighting system.
Material List

1.  Two shallow boxes.  I used boxes that previously had cans in them.  You can probably find them at a local grocery store.
2.  Three sheets of white paper
3.  One sheet of card stock.  Any color is fine, but do not use pink. ;)
4.  Tape
5.  Desk light.  Fluorescent lights tend to work the best.
Assembling the Light Box
Take the two shallow boxes and stick one box inside the other.  It should look something like this:

Now stand the box assembly so that one box is flat on the floor and the other is sticking up in the air.  Then, take the piece of card stock and tape it in the boxes so that it looks like this:

Take one of the pieces of white paper and tape it to the side.  This does not have to be perfect.  The reason the piece of paper is there is to reflect light.

Next, do the same thing on the other side of the box.

After this, take your last sheet of white paper and tape it over the card stock.

After you place the desk lamp over the box, you are done!

I use a Nikon Coolpix P90, which is not the best camera (as you may have noticed.)  However, under the right circumstances, it can take nice pictures.  Here is a picture that I took in my light box:

I realize that this is not the best method to light a minifigure, but it is better than placing a minifigure flat on a piece of paper.  I would usually try to avoid the direct light, but I found that it worked fine for this purpose.
Please share how you like to light objects in the comments.  I would love to hear everyone's different techniques.  Thanks for reading!
 
This article attempts to describe Craigslist experience of buying bulk Lego lots and provide some lessons learned from newbie perspective so others can benefit from experience and hopefully not make same mistakes that I've made..
I've been fan of Lego since childhood, never really entered a dark age there was always a set or two or three around the house most of them were technic.  I seriously considered Lego investing 3 or 4 months ago and turned to Craigslist bulk buys to offset the burden of long term investment.  Below are my observations of the process, lessons learned and some real life examples of to date purchases.
Observations:
Targeting lots of sets is the easiest way to start- Buying Lego pounds and trying to resell them is a very difficult proposition, there are tremendous number of power plus sellers on E-bay that are doing Lego pound selling full time or nearly full time, competing with their prices, rankings in search results or supply sources poses a significant challenge to a newbie who is just starting out.  When you target Craigslist lots that have identifiable sets in them you at least know what you are getting and also know upfront the demand rate for those sets.
Determining Your Price Limit -Lot of set is quite a bit more expensive then paying per pound with prices in a hundreds of dollars you need to make sure that you can recoup this initial investment before money exchanges hands. Unless I get a distinct feeling from the seller that he is a builder going into dark age or he is a pack rat that never misplaces anything I usually shoot for a purchase price of the lot to be 50% of the market price of the sets in it or 20% percent off asking price whichever is lower.  This leaves me with a lot of wiggle room in terms of money I can spend on rehab and a healthy profit in the end, or so I hope.
Being a Fan of Lego is an absolute must-If you don't enjoy building, the whole affair will quickly become an exercise in frustration.  If you don't treat time spent rehabilitating sets ordering missing parts from Bricklink and then building those sets to photograph them for listings and then break them down piece by piece to verify completeness, as your personal fun time you will quickly realize that you are losing ton of money because you are making less than 2 dollars an hour.  If on the other hand you treat this endeavor as getting paid for something you are willing to do for free the process is quite enjoyable.  In my case I have a son who is a Lego addict and will build anything you throw at him as long as he gets a day or two to play with it and a better half who is willing to do a lot of dirty work like sorting and packing as long as she gets to build some of the Modulars with me.  In my case it became a good family past time that everyone enjoys.
Restraining an evil AFOL -As you will see in the examples below it is essential you restrain your evil AFOL side and quit while you are still ahead.  That means you have to remember at all times that the set you are building is not for keeps and once you reach a certain dollar point of missing bricks it's time to call it quits and stop hitting order button on bricklink.
Keeping Records
It is also important to cost each set in a lot purchased according to its relative market value weight this ensures that you don't overspend or underspend when rehabbing those sets.  Needless to say that you need to be very meticulous in recording cost of each brick, plus shipping, that you ordered for every set you are rehabbing.  Once you start selling newly restored sets you need to keep an eye on your profit margin per set as well as your overall lot profit margin.  It is tempting to make an overall profit margin of 30% on a lot but if it means leaving items sitting for year on Ebay waiting for their buyers, time value of money concept kicks in.  In those cases a lower profit margin in a shorter time frame is preferable to a higher profit margin over a much longer period.
Managing your expectations
Even when dealing with the upstanding citizens you cannot make a purchase expecting that everything will be as described. Bricks could be cracked small little pieces could be missing, some sets might be beyond rehab.  You have to be ready to spend more money on top of the purchase price before you can make money with any CL purchase you make.
Patience
You cannot be pressuring yourself into trying turnaround those lots for sale ASAP.  It takes time.  Bricklink is a great resource but it's wanted list feature is totally outdated.  Trying to get the best possible price for missing bricks for 40 sets in your lot is the most tedious and time consuming part of the whole process.  Allow yourself to get frustrated and you will quickly give up.  CL flipping will not make you 100's of thousands of dollars overnight but it will help you subsidize your long term investments as well as scratch that itch to build stuff if you are AFOL.  
Now let's look at some examples. 
The profit shown is net before taxes.  That is I accounted for E-bay/Paypal fees, postage costs, packing materials, bricklinked bricks and of course the initial purchase price of the lot. First lot I purchased was a 5 gallon bucket full of individually bagged smaller to medium sets Atlantis, Sponge Bob, Cars, Toy Story, and probably two dozen of Series 2-4 minifigs. Total cost for that lot $100. Purchase date mi December. As you can see there were 47 identifiable set/minifigs in that lot.  To date I turned in a healthy  30%  profit and I expect the remaining sets to bring my profit margin to 41%.  This was a case of a pack rat and is atypical from what I've seen with my other purchases.
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostQuantityBoughtQuantity AvailableBricklink CostGross RevenueCOGSRealized ProfitProfit MarginProjected Gross RevenueProjected COGSProjected ProfitProjected Profit MarginLot 112/18/2013100471447.65476358.34117.6632.83%599.06423.94175.1241%Lot 1 Total  471447.65476358.34117.6632.83%599.06423.94175.1241%Grand   Total  471447.65476358.34117.6632.83%599.06423.94175.1241%Lot2-Was purchased around Christmas time and included mostly complete Star wars sets including 7676, my favorite.   Of course now that 75021 re-make is on the shelves the profit on this lot is uncertain, but I essentially broke even on it so I am not too concerned.  Here is how this one faired. Purchase price of that lot was $100.
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostSum   of QuantitySum   of Quantity AvailableSum of   Bricklink CostSum   of Gross RevenueSum   of COGSSum   of Realized ProfitSum   of Profit MarginSum   of Projected Gross RevenueSum   of Projected COGSSum   of Projected ProfitSum   of Projected Profit MarginLot 212/19/20131006126.78180.44184.99-4.55-2.46%313.45210.08103.3749%Lot 2 Total  6126.78180.44184.99-4.55-2.46%313.45210.08103.3749%Grand   Total  6126.78180.44184.99-4.55-2.46%313.45210.08103.3749%  The first two lots  made me fancy myself an expert in Craigslist buying and then I purchased Lot 3. With this lot  I decided that it would be a good idea to play Russian roulette with a semi-automatic handgun and then when the gun functioned as intended I decided that I want to do it few more times.  A shorter version of it could be an Evil AFOL awakes.  Dealing with upstanding citizens buying first two lots made me believe in general goodness of human kind, lot 3 had proven me wrong.  Craigslist ad described a lot of 8 99% complete  sets including 7659, all minifigs and manuals.  My first clue that something was off should have been a really hurried kid that seemed very anxious to be on his way, but AFOL was salivating over Slave I in the open box so money exchanged hands. When I got home none of the minifigs were present, 7659 was not there and surprise the sets were not 99% complete they were about 75% complete mark.  Evil AFOL was at full swing hitting order button on bricklink ordering minifigs at  13 bucks a pop.  Below is the result of that fiasco.  Needless to say that when the responsible female population of the house found out, it got really loud I think the nicest thing I heard was something about looking for wife number 3, my eardrums were rupturing so I cannot be sure.  Purchase price of this lot was $190 and it was purchased around Christmas time as well. Bulk of the expenses came from minifigs, had I bought just missing bricks I would've broken even.  
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostSum   of QuantitySum   of Quantity AvailableSum of   Bricklink CostSum   of Gross RevenueSum   of COGSSum   of Realized ProfitSum   of Profit MarginSum   of Projected Gross RevenueSum   of Projected COGSSum   of Projected ProfitSum   of Projected Profit MarginLot 61/4/201419086171.0678.06386.14-308.08-79.78%299.23454.67-155.44-34%Lot 6 Total  86171.0678.06386.14-308.08-79.78%299.23454.67-155.44-34%Grand   Total  86171.0678.06386.14-308.08-79.78%299.23454.67-155.44-34%  While recovering my hearing on the couch late at night I figured that it is time to get back on Craigslist and got my next lot. This one was the most fun  of them all It had  40 mostly complete sets from the 80's and early 90's, some of them I remember from my childhood.  5978, 6073, 6076 were just the few.  Purchase price was $500.   And the numbers for it are below.  This one and the promise of not building Parisian restaurant by myself put me back in good graces with the Mrs.  
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostSum   of QuantitySum   of Quantity AvailableSum of   Bricklink CostSum   of Gross RevenueSum   of COGSSum   of Realized ProfitSum   of Profit MarginSum   of Projected Gross RevenueSum   of Projected COGSSum   of Projected ProfitSum   of Projected Profit MarginLot 101/24/2014500382191.89405.76719.65-313.89-43.62%1,099.96921.79178.1719%Lot 10 Total  382191.89405.76719.65-313.89-43.62%1,099.96921.79178.1719%Grand   Total  382191.89405.76719.65-313.89-43.62%1,099.96921.79178.1719%The last lot I purchased was for 7 Harry Potter Sets and two star wars sets.  When I started sorting thru them, I quickly came to realization that this lot had 12 Harry Potter sets, all of them with minifigs, but no manuals.  This one put me back on track.  Here how this one turned out.
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostSum   of QuantitySum   of Quantity AvailableSum of   Bricklink CostSum   of Gross RevenueSum   of COGSSum   of Realized ProfitSum   of Profit MarginSum   of Projected Gross RevenueSum   of Projected COGSSum   of Projected ProfitSum   of Projected Profit MarginLot 132/6/20143001414111.8444890411.84-411.84-100.00%807.18599.08208.1035%Lot 13 Total  1414111.8444890411.84-411.84-100.00%807.18599.08208.1035%Grand   Total  1414111.8444890411.84-411.84-100.00%807.18599.08208.1035%And here's the overall performance of my purchases to date.  As you can see if you keep yourself in check you can expect 20% or more in net profit  in a relatively reasonable period of time.
Lot NumberPurchase DateLot CostQuantity Quantity AvailableBricklink CostGross RevenueCOGSRealized ProfitProfit MarginProjected Gross RevenueProjected COGSProjected ProfitSum   of Projected Profit MarginLot 112/18/2013100471447.65476358.34117.6632.83%599.06423.94175.1241%Lot 212/19/20131006126.78180.44184.99-4.55-2.46%313.45210.08103.3749%Lot 61/4/201419086171.0678.06386.14-308.08-79.78%299.23454.67-155.44-34%Lot 71/5/2014541125.64079.94-79.94-100.00%124.9999.0625.9326%Lot 101/24/2014500382191.89405.76719.65-313.89-43.62%1,099.96921.79178.1719%Lot 132/6/20143001414111.840411.84-411.84-100.00%807.18599.08208.1035%Grand   Total  11457474.861140.262,140.90-1,000.64-46.74%3,243.872,708.64535.2320% 
I was strolling through my local Walmart and saw two Cloud Cuckoo Palaces.  Aware that this set was becoming hard to find, I decided to purchase one to part out.  I knew that parting out a set is something that many Brickpickers would like to know more about; therefore, I decided to write an article based on my personal experience. This article is for members who would like to have more knowledge on this subject. Without further ado, let's get started!
Part I: Know Your Set

Before you buy a set to part out, you must know the set you are purchasing.  I bought this set knowing that I would probably be able to sell the minifigures for about $30 to $35 dollars.  After that, I still had the rest of the set to sell.  If the rest of the set sells for $10 to $15 dollars, then I would make $20 to $30 dollars.  I consider that a successful endeavor.
Part II: Should I Break the Seals?

I spent quite a bit of time wondering if I should break the seals of this set.  I did some research on eBay and found out that the sealed set was selling for $30 to $40 dollars.  I figured that it would be good to get more experience in parting a set out, so I decided to break the seals.  For people looking for convenience, parting out might not be for you.  One thing that I was surprised by was the amount of time that it took to part this set out.
Part III: Shipping Costs/Creating Your Lots
This part does not take a whole lot of work, but with just a little bit of planning you can cut your overall shipping cost by a decent amount and make more money at the same time.  Even though the shipping cost will only be a few dollars, it is good to keep thinking about ways to save money.
The shipping cost is approximately one dollar for each padded envelope, and each envelope costs about fifty cents.  The rest of the set can go in a small box and the cost will be approximately $2.50.  I combined the cost of the envelope and the shipping cost to simplify the table.
 
Lot Name Shipping Cost Emmet $1.50 Wyldstyle $1.50 Unikitty $1.50 Executron $1.50 The rest of the set $2.50 The total expenses are $8.50. This one way to part the set out, and it is an effective way to accomplish the process - but is there a better way?
 
Lot Name Shipping Cost Emmet and Wyldstyle $1.50 Unikitty and Snail $1.50 Executron $1.50 The rest of the set $2.50  
The total expenses are $8.50.  This one way to part the set out, and it is an effective way to accomplish the process - but is there a better way?
 
 
Lot Name Shipping Cost Emmet and Wyldstyle $1.50 Unikitty and Snail $1.50 Executron $1.50 The rest of the set $2.50 I would say that this is a better way.  By combining Emmet and Wyldstyle, we can subtract $1.50 from our expenses, bringing the estimated shipping cost down to $7.00 dollars.
You may have noticed that I added the snail to the Unikitty lot.  The snail is not nearly as popular as Unikitty, but when combined, the snail can make the lot sell a bit faster.
Part IV: Taking Pictures and Lighting
This part is optional.  Some people use official images in their eBay listings, but I like to show buyers exactly what they are buying.  The main problem with taking pictures is lighting.

I like to use an Ott-Lite that looks similar to this.  It gives a white light instead of a yellow light that most ceiling lights tend to give.  The second thing that I use when taking pictures is paper.  It can reflect light very well and can also soften it if you wrap it around the light.  Do not get paper near the light if it tends to get hot, as this could start a fire.
If possible, do not let light directly hit the object you are trying to photograph.  My favorite method to light a picture is to open the Ott-Lite just enough to turn it on and then slide a piece of paper in between the light and the bottom support to reflect the light indirectly onto the object I am lighting.

This way, there is not a nasty glare that hinders buyers from seeing the object you are photographing.  After you get your lighting system rigged up, you can place your minifigure on another sheet of paper and take a picture.  This is the result I got:

This is one of the simplest ways to light a minifigure.  It does cast a shadow at the bottom, but buyers can still see what they are buying, and that is the most important part.
Part V: Selling Your Items on eBay/Pricing Your Lots
After you have taken your pictures, you can just load them onto your listing.  I chose to use a padded envelope to ship the small things and a small box to ship the rest of the set.  I decided to list with free shipping.
Because I was familiar with this set, I had an idea of what the lots had been selling for, but it is always good to double check by looking up the sold listings on eBay.  After I researched trending prices, I decided on my prices, which you can see in the table below.
 
Lot Name Shipping Cost My Price on eBay Minus the Shipping Cost Five Lots $7.00 $52.38 $45.38 Emmet and Wyldstyle $1.50 $17.97 $16.47 Unikitty and Snail $1.50 $15.97 $14.47 Executron $1.50 $7.47 $5.97 The rest of the set $2.50 $10.97 $8.47  
All this minus the $20 dollar retail price equals $25.38 profit!  That is approximately 127% profit!  I would say that this has been a success.  *Note* If you do use eBay to sell your items, they will automatically take away 10% of your profits.  I did not calculate that on my table.
Part VI: Packaging the Lots
Before I put my items in the padded envelope, I placed them in plastic bags to give the minifigures an extra layer of cushion to prevent scratching.  Here are a few of the minifigures in plastic bags:

After I dealt with the minifigures, I taped up the original bags with clear packaging tape so that the pieces would not fall out.  Now everything is ready to be shipped.
Summing it Up
I hope that you have found this article helpful and useful in your own investing experience.  Please leave a comment on what you thought about this article.  Your feedback is appreciated!  Once I finish selling all my lots, I will leave an update in the comments sharing the rest of my experience.  Thanks for reading!
I deal with bulk Lego more than any other type, I find it relaxing, I get to spend some quality time with my seven year old, and it is very profitable so long as you don't over pay or spend to much time on it. Time, time is the killer of an otherwise perfect lot. While there is no single solution to speed the process of finding value in a lot, there are several ways to speed up the process of sorting and building, thus finding the value quicker. Take the lot below, it is roughly 20-25 pounds of seemingly random lego and while I did get many sets of instructions with it, some of the sets were without instruct

Regardless of whether you get instructions or not with a lot like this one (completely mixed) I use the same techniques to figure out what sets I have. I will start sorting a bulk lot as I wash it, sometimes before. The most effective way to tell what you have (unless you have the instructions) is to know your mini figures. With my first run through I pull out every mini figure and mini figure part I find. Say hello to Ten Numb, he was one of the first figures I found and he is only in set 6208. Looks like I have a B-Wing.

Stickers are the next method I use to identify sets. Some like a license plate will actually give you the set number. Same goes with printed tiles. A quick note about stickers, they HATE to be washed. I will try and pull any piece out that has a sticker on it before washing. Washed or not as I find pieces with stickers or printing I sort them into a tray.

The same goes for any unusual pieces, as I find them I set them aside in trays or boxes depending on how big the lot happens to be. I will also sort out some of the more common bricks and plates by size and shape, while I don't generally sort by color if you find it helpful by all means do so. An average tray of sorted plates looks like this.
 
Makes your pile smaller and whenever you need a plate of any size you know where it is. I will do the same with bricks, rounds, smalls, and all the other more common pieces. When I am done I will always have a few pounds of random unsorted pieces that don't seem to fit in with anything. With those I just put them in a box and dig through it as needed.
Sometimes, even with a lot as random as this one, you luck out and will find pieces of sets or even ones that are near complete. It's not something that happens all the time but it's worth mentioning. Just be alert, for every chunk of a set that I have found I've also run across two or three altered sets or flat out MOCs.
Anyone who has ever processed a bulk lot will know that they always come with non Lego. As I'm sorting anything that I don't think is Lego goes in its own box.

Saving non Lego was a painful lesson to learn. While sorting one of my first bulk lots I took a quick look at the head to the creature from 7255, and thinking "no Lego looks like this" tossed it in the recycling bin. Oops. At least I could still sell Grievous. So, trust me, keep your non Lego until you're done with the lot.
I have always found it difficult to wait to start building so while I'm sorting a lot I tend to start assembling sets. I'll even work on several at once, I keep each one in their own box as I go.

I got all the bins from one of the nicer lots that I purchased, each set was in its own bin with its instructions. That has only happened once so don't expect it to be the norm. And I have no idea why this pic seems to be sideways.
With the first bulk lots that I processed I would only consider a set "worth the trouble" if I could get $20 or more for it, sometimes if much of the value was tied to a single figure I would just sell the minifig and be done with it. Over the last year or so my son has started helping me and I've had him do some of the smaller sets on his own, he enjoys it and when selling a bunch of $10 sets you wind up with the same amount of profit as you get from selling one more expensive set. A word of caution though, wait to sell the smaller sets until you've sold all the larger ones, it saves having to Bricklink pieces for an expensive set after using them on cheap one. I will still sell a mini figure to save time, but not as often as I have in the past. With older lots I would end up with 10-15 pounds of leftovers that I would sell in one shot just to get rid of, didn't make as much as I could have, but I saved time, now I wind up 5-10 pounds and sell it off in smaller lots or as sorted pieces. It's all about what your time is worth to you. I hope y'all have found this informative, and please comment on anything you do or do not agree with. I only need another 997,207 Brickpoints to get that 10179 and each comment is a +1
Welcome to the fifth and final installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. If you haven't read the previous articles, I suggest you start at the beginning and read Comicblast's initial articleshere ($0.00 to $9.99 and here ($10 to $24.99). The third installment can be readhere ($25 to $49.99) and gives further background about the purpose of these articles and my approach to continuing the analysis. The fourth installment is here ($50 to $99.99).
Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:
No insertion fee was included. 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay. Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:
3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. ** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for MSRP Over $100 are as follows:
BrickLink is the clear winner in terms of being the marketplace that earns sellers maximum profits. As usual, without fees eBay appears to be the winner as 12 sets sold for more money: 9.22% vs 6.99% With fees, 9 of those sets move to the BrickLink side of profit even though the remaining 3 give eBay a real advantage: 18.11% vs 11.21% For sets with a MSRP over $100, we see the biggest difference between the two marketplaces. While those that sell for more on eBay make a higher return for the seller, BrickLink is the clear winner in terms of your chances. More sets make more money on BrickLink.

Additional things to consider:
If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess. There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price. eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price. This round scores a TKO for BrickLink. Despite the fact that the Fire Temple sold for a whopping 38% more on eBay, it is clearly an oddball set (though a fantastic one, I love dragons in Lego). People are clearly paying high prices on eBay but there is just no match for BrickLink's lower fees. Sets that appear to make more money on eBay usually don't sell high enough to cover the fee difference. At these price ranges, that also translates into some significant money being paid in fees and lost profits.

Configure browser push notifications
Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.