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  • Top 20 LEGO Movers and Shakers: MARCH 2014


    Grolim

    This blog follows on from my previous blogs presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.  This update will be based on values as at the end of Mar-14.  This means comparisons in the “Last Rank” column of the tables will be comparing movements from the Feb-14 positions. Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:

    • I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension
    • Information is based on US prices only
    • Not all sets across all themes are included as I have little interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though.
    • I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know

    One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)

    An entirely new set of entrants again as we have become used to given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next.  None of the movers from Feb-13 have popped up again here.  Interestingly for those who follow the 9465 Zombies phenomenon it just missed out on the top 20 coming in at 21st with 21.76% monthly growth in what could be a second wind?

    It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:  

    Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from September 2013 )

    Another list with quite a few new entrants.  Plenty of recently retired sets enjoying that initial post EOL price bump.  8092 Luke’s Landspeeder has seen excellent consistent growth since it went EOL about 6 months ago.  9490 and 6866 improve up the leaderboard with continued strong growth.  9447 jumps straight in at number 6 as a result of topping the 1 month chart.  

    One Year Growth (change in Market Price from March 2013)

    Black Phantom slips down 3 from last months top spot which is taken over by Butterfly Beauty Shop on the back of a further 22.6% growth in the month (made 19th on the 1 month table).  Who said Prince of Persia is a poor theme for investment? Well 7571 enters the chart with a great year of growth behind it to dispel that myth, or is it just the exception to the rule?

    Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.  

    Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from March 2012)

    Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods.

    Fire Lord and Level Crossing switch spots at the top after Level Crossing gained another 17.2% in the month.  Dino Defense rockets up to number 3 after a superb 38.8% monthly increase (3rd on the monthly chart).

    We can now start to see some of the performers in the shorter time periods that were presented in previous articles begin to push their way through onto the 2 year growth table, like the Rocka XL, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Black Phantom.  

    Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP)

    Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples.

    Not much to report here with a mostly static table.  6846 jumps in at the bottom but has little or no volumes to speak of. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989.

    Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…  

    Conclusions

    These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  There is a large portion of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs.      



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