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Having analyzed those LEGO Webshop EU graphs a bit for info on exclusive sets, one could draw some conclusions like the following 10 fun/trivia facts (without liability) - if the data found there is more or less correct: 1.) "Is this good or bad?" The worst selling exclusive sets in the shown timeframe of March 2015 were: - Benny's Spaceship - Sydney Opera House - Architecture Studio - Ewok Village - Fairground Mixer - Metal Beard's Sea Cow - The Tower of Orthanc So, not too much love especially for the LEGO Movie sets with Benny's Ship seemingly being THE worst selling exclusive overall in March. Now the big question is: What is better - Investing in slow sellers, so there is less competition (but also less demand) post-EOL; or investing in the big sellers, having to deal with masses of other resellers (while having more potential buyers)? 2.) "...if only this was less expensive" While Sydney Opera House, Ewok Village and The Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well, they all made remarkable sale jumps in double VIP time, from which one could conclude that people merely regard them too expensive instead of generally unattractive (while the sales of the two above-mentioned Movie sets did not profit from double VIP...) 3.) Red 5...4...3...2...1 The EOL run for Red 5 seems to be in full swing because sales pre-2xVIP and during 2xVIP were somewhat identical and surprisingly high (for the set itself and also in relation to other SW sets) 4.) Too much, too late The Exo Suit is selling pretty good, but LEGO has amassed way too much stock for a set that should have been retired one month ago - maybe they ordered that massive stock some time ago already and were not able to cancel it while realizing too late that demand was not keeping its high level (like at the introduction of the set) and so they would get way too many sets in the end. 5.) The "No-restockers" While most sets got restocked 1-4 times during the period, there were 5-6 exclusives that got no restock at all - all of which are sets that were already stocked in high numbers. If this is a hint for possible EOL, I don't know. Why there are some sets stocked in very high numbers and others in rather small numbers - I also don't know. It might be a question of production capacity or/and LEGO's EOL plan. 6.) Old vs. New Death Star and Sandcrawler sales seem to be OK to good and pretty much on par - potentially leading to two quite different views on the sets (Death Star being 6 years older...) 7.) London calling It seems like 3+ Tower Bridges are sold for every 1 Sydney Opera House. 8.) Duel of the necomers Slave 1 seems to have slightly outperformed the Detective's Office during 2x VIP looking at "sets sold per day (when in stock)". 9.) Investors' Nightmare One of the worst selling non-exclusive sets is B-Wing with about 1 ("one") sold set per day in March... 10.) PC or PR Palace Cinema and Parisian Restaurant look to be selling equally well, having quite similar stock numbers (during March) and having gotten 3 restocks both (in March).

Fill box with helium balloon air cushioning so it lifts just slightly off the scale, thus showing only 13oz

I've spent the morning (Friday off, here) extracting and copying data for most of the sets we're interested in. I have image files for all the currently available exclusives, plus many other sets. Just an FYI. There's so much to do here, lots of info to digest. Here's some early data. The best selling sets were the Helicarrier (700 units is 7 days, steady 100 units/day), Slave 1 (no surprise) and T1 (big surprise, data below). Other robust sales were of all the modulars (roughly 250 units/week for all), Tower Bridge (160 units/week), TOO (90 units/week). T1 was killer, (350 units/week till sold out); the mini cooper not so much. Sydney Opera house moved a steady 40 units/week. The trains were slow movers, and sold in lockstep at about 10 units/week (roughly same numbers of sale for 60050, 60051, and 60052 and the track packs). Speed Champions is interesting. In the EU, the Porsche was the best seller (almost 200 units/week, and the small cars all sold about equally. For every Ferrari Truck sold, they sold 3 sets of the small cars. There's some dogs with few sales, Fairground Mixer, Arctic Base Camp (10 units/week) and Simpson's House. Mindstorms EV3 was completely dead. 42009 moved a steady 60 units/week, while the 42030 Volvo Loader was slower at 30 units/week. In Star Wars, Slave 1 is the champ, which moved 350 units in 4 days to sell out. Sandcrawler was a good mover, 100 units/week, and Death Star which moved 80 units/week. Ewok Village did 50 units/week. Red Five moved at 90 units/week until sold out, twice. Another observation, double VIP sales period had little effect on the data. Basically all these sets had inventory levels move at the same rate pre- and during double VIP. This is just a snapshot, more analysis to come...

A lot of members have answered your questions and helped you out. If you have read or at least scanned most of this thread most of what you're asking is in there. You should be able to form your own opinion/decision by now. Out of curiosity how many of RIs do you have?

I think those willing to pay 5X MSRP already did and those that had to have this set already do. Not sure if they are doing a round 2 of this set but if not I do not see this making it above $60 for a long time. If there is a follow up set RI 2 then all bets are off IMO I would like to know Alpinemaps opinion too but he charges me a consultation fee and money is tight ;)

Wow I have missed out on this thread. It is amazing we have a total male meltdown over a total female set. LOL Reminds me of this famous quote from Jurassic Park. And there is a female Dinosaur set in here to boot. What is not to like about the RI? Buy it up. Dinosaurs eat man

IMHO, this thing needs the 2nd RI (whatever it is called ) AND another NYT article to coincide with the release of 2nd RI to ever reach $90 within the next 2 years.

I can't manage to get it in a box without going over 13 oz. I know some cut corners on shipping (e.***., ship RI in a bag), but I won't. A happy customer is a repeat customer is good word of mouth/feedback. It all translates into more money down the road.

I've decided to sell the rest of my Millenium Falcons at $225 + shipping on eBay and I'm down to my last one. I would love to hold them until the summer but my shelves are overflowing and I really need to make some room.

1. Are you a real person like Nico? 'Cause your posts suggest not. 2. If you haven't bought any RI yet, move on to another set. 3. Feel free to PM other users but I suggest not posting confidential info.

When I first dabbled in Lego investing in the mid 00s, long hold (2-3 years) was the only hold.

Well if you'd like another opinion that will be in line with about 100 other members on this forum, here goes: HOLD. RI is small and easy to store. Put it on your shelf and mark "dont sell until 2017/2018 on it. In terms of boxes for the RI (and bc you're somewhat new) listen to Raven's wisdom. He knows what hes doing. But your "what box to use for RI" issue is now a mute point bc of the aforementioned statement.

RI moved from QFLL status to long term hold awhile ago. You just have to be patient now. I flipped plenty of these at 3-4x RRP when it was a flip. When these came back, I bought for the long term. These are stored away and I won't touch these for long while.

This data is really rather important, and I don't think folks realize what can be done with it yet. Yes, its only EU sales for Lego sites. None-the-less, we can glean a tremendous amount by cross referencing this with other sources. At the end of the day, our community would love to have total inventory numbers, sales numbers, production run amounts, restock amounts, and sales rates, all be set number. We can make some progress to good estimates at these numbers with careful review of this data, with appropriate cross references to other sources such as eBay and Amazon sales, TLG annual reports, and various press releases and advertising data. There's much more to say about this, and eventually, it will warrant its own thread and discussion. For now, I want to really thank rfish, who has grasped the importance of this data well before most of us. I would add, the raw derivative of this data set if really quite interesting, it shows the sales rates. Big sets can move in the range of 500-1000 units/week. (see, for example, detective's office week of March 19 - April 2, ~1000 units; TLG moved about 200/day on March 15 and March 16). That's just EU and just Lego sites. Compare that rate to observed sales numbers on eBay over the same time period. By my count, I have a total of 7 (seven) sales of 10246 in that same time period. This is a ratio of over 100:1. For every unit sold on eBay, Lego SAH EU moved more than 140 units. Just that number is of fascinating use. Now, of course eBay sales are over MSRP, and there's lots of other caveats, but it is still valuable raw data and a kind of calibration we've not had in the past. Frankly, it would be completely worthwhile to compile statistics of this ratio (Lego sales vs. other source sales) for all our exclusives, and include Amazon sales numbers if we can find them as well. Compare those numbers to our stock levels, and I think you're going to find we're actually small-fish in this market, all of us. Some have speculated that resellers dominate this market. I think the opposite may be true. We're a small fraction of TLG overall sales. And, thats very good news. Much, much more to say and think about here, but for now, I hope others are beginning to see what a Gold mine these kind of numbers are. As just another example, it shouldn't be too hard to calibrate how much of TLGs overall sales are in the EU. This would be a pretty good way to extend these EU sales numbers to world-wide overall sales. Really, there's so much that can be done with this data, we're just scratching the surface. Among other things, I hope some folks are getting screen shots of key graphs for exclusive sets, in case this data source goes *poof*. This data really is the "missing link" that will allow us an (unprecedented) way to get the kind of overall sales and inventory data we've long sought.

The Red 5 blew up the Death Star 1 so it will always be popular. What did the blue X-Wing do?

The reason why I stated that box. Free box and only $1.50 more in postage. If you don't care about what your customers think then just send in a tyvek or bubble mailer. Then when one is received with a dent or ding and they want a credit or return you will be out more money than before and possibly get a bad score or metric depending on where you sell which in the long run will cost you even more money.

I've been on an Atlantis kick. I bought a huge lot of 20+ used sets for about $140. As well as a NISB Portal of Atlantis for $55 and a NISB City of Atlantis for $90. I think I may have the whole theme now - lol. These are not for investment (that's probably obvious). My kids and I were watching some old Brickshow reviews and thought a lot of the sets were really cool (Portal of Atlantis and Angler Attack especially). New collectors should peruse some of the old forgotten themes. You can get some cool used stuff that no one else even thinks to looks for on Ebay auction. Also, completed my set of Dragon suit ninjago minifigs and my Vader minifig collection #allthevaders.

As supply diminishes each subsequent halloween will be solid increases in price. I will not be parting with mine for quite some time.

For those who like me think the Hulkbuster Armor in this set although cool is simply too big by comparison with The Hulk maxifigure, here is a much smaller 'midi' sized modification that I think makes a better fit. Sure bigger is better but the armor shouldn't dwarf The Hulk. I mean he's The Hulk for crying out loud! >LEGO HULKBUSTER by ykwan0714 >MOC Hulk Buster Mid. MK2 by ykwan0714

I'm very new on this forum, although a long time collector (the guy who usually buys stuff he was late for because of the Dark Age from you guys ), and I'll give you my perspective on these (remember, more gut feeling, less hard data, I'm very much a novice in investing): 1. See Cow - I never understood anything Lego movie related. I'm a 30+ adult without kids, therefore even as a Lego unconditional, of course I didn't watch it or have been remotely attracted to watch kids' movie. Same goes for sets, nothing really legendary (and no, it won't become next SW or LoTR) for an adult collector who is supposed to shell out 2x or more RRP on this set. Completists? Sure. Others? Selected few enthusiasts who got the set recommended on its supposedly great build, but for that one does not shell out 2x RRP imho. You need to WANT and LOVE and FEEL the set to get your willingness to pay to 400

I missed QFLL on RI, but thankfully (or not, depending on your POV), Lego responded to the QF scenario and made more. Now I have a few dozen and I don't mind waiting until I can (at least) double my money. It's low buy in, low risk, low shipping cost, low effort. They don't take up much space. IN MY OPINION (and I know you didn't ask for it), $90 is pretty pie in the sky for RI. The NYT article has gone from headline, to bird cage liner, to trash can lining, and now we wait. The new Science Adventures IDEAS set (is that happening) might give it a bump... or a kick in the teeth. I know this: I'm not selling now for a few bucks profit on each when it is likely done for good. Now is time to be patient.

we have PM for personal dialog, I believe.

I just completed some in-depth analysis of the various sets in the LEGO Architecture series - based on the new feature of Brickset to track inventory at LEGO.com EU. I found that the lower-priced sets are selling at higher volume, which is pretty much to be expected, but the more costly sets are clearly selling well enough to contribute well in terms daily sales (

Some good analysis, but there's two things I'd pick you up on I don't think you can make the inference from this information that Benny's Spaceship doesn't sell well. It isn't an exclusive and is available at much cheaper prices than directly from Lego, even allowing for VIP points, so why would people buy it from them. The sales info is only useful when looking at genuine exclusives. I can get Metal Beard's Sea Cow and Ewok Village in my local store too. I also don't think you can say something like the Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well. It sold 400 units in a 3 week period, in just two of their markets. Even allowing for a spike for double VIP, that would amount to signifcant sales value for one set. Think you should highlight point 9, mark it with stars, increase the font just in case anyone has any other idea on this set, even allowing for it being non exclusive, those sales are anemic

In my opinion they store manufactured sets in a warehouse and allocate them for different destinations over time, like shipments to B&M, other retailers, overseas, s@h, etc. according to actual demand and priorities. Restock happens on s@h when stock gets allocated for it.

Really? I tried it on 79105, seems work: the system accepted this code and gave $10 discount. But I must admit I didn't go through the check-out process.

Arctic Batman in stock at WM.ca with %20 clearance: http://www.walmart.ca/en/ip/lego-batman-arctic-batman-vs-mr-freeze-aquaman-on-ice-76000/6000076893774

I

no... for both. A used one for 110 euro? How did you do that!? You scammed some old lady?

"I'm afraid 10188 will be quite operational when the horde arrives"

On the opposite spectrum, there's this

What did the Mini-Cooper replace?

Forgive me if this is repeat fo any earlier posts (haven't read the history in this thread)... I was just thinking... could the Simpson House be around for a long, long time? I mean, we talk about "2-year runs" for big exclusives, maybe this one will stay longer because Kwik-E-Mart will give it a boost (and vice versa)... but now I think... what about the next in the series? ... and the next? Say it's 2017... the Kwik-E-Mart is still out... maybe a Krusty Burger or Springfield Elementary (or whatever) "coming soon" ... as a new AFOL walking in my Lego store, I'm not sure I would be interested in starting a Simpsons collection if they had retired the Simpson's House a year prior. Won't they sort of have to keep the Simpson's House around to support the rest of the line... "for life"? Just look at the modulars. Any new buyer could start his modular collection today, and buy a Palace Cinema, a Parisian Restaurant, and a Detective's Office, and be proud of his collection... and add new sets as they come out. So he missed out on the Town Hall, Fire Brigade, etc... They would have been nice, but aren't critical. He can just move forward with his anonymous little city starting right here and now. How could someone start a Simpsons collection and not be able to buy a Simpsons House from the Lego Store? It seems it would be incomplete from the start.

I reread this topic about a month back and since there seems to be an influx of new investors recently, I thought I would give this thread a bump. This gives a good insight to any new investors on people's thought processes, reasons and opinions as to why a set will or won't do well in the future and hopefully it'll promote new POVs from new members.

Found it thanks to the brickfan http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=98085&st=5150#entry2182180

Yes - They are actually replaceable.

And let her sign the picture of her signing the Death Star to make the picture authentical.

Sorry but a one line post in a forum by some random guy with no actual supporting evidence seems to be a waste of time. Lego just restocked and there are now 315 left so it isn

Fantastic analysis. Post of the week. Bravo.

FBA Batman Freeze 76000 - $39 Batcave 6860 - $119 Daily Bugle 76005 - $64 Delorean - $74 Creative Tower - $98 (sold out now) Creative Suitcase - $75 Kings Castle - $174 Power Mech 31007 - $35 Samurai Mech - $49 Jek 14 - $90 Target Exc. Green Ninja - $17 City 3 in 1 - 66475 - $100 Dragon Mountain - $73 Ebay SSD $800

Made my first brick classified sale yesterday to a fellow BPer. Mixels series 2 blue tribe x 132 $835us shipped (My biggest sale to date)

Ok, newest from Eurobricks: 10188 is retiring and Lego launches new bigger, better Death Star set in 2016. News suspiciously close to April 1st, but poster with proven insider information track record and insists this is no joke

Finding out the seat you just sat on use to hold someone's wet umbrella (or at least you hope it was a wet umbrella ).

Frankly, the regular job (I'm a software programmer) pays a lot more per hour. My wife is doing the order picking (25 hours/week or so), and we often hire a few friends to sort parts in short bursts over week-ends. I spend maybe a hour per day to pack orders and customer service. Most importantly, we are also a household of builders. The near infinite supply of parts is very handy, we pick whatever we need right from the store's inventory.

Just clear your cache and close your browser. I've used the code at least 60-75 times in the last two months and have always used the same email, same CC and same Airmiles account.

34, project manager for a large aerospace company, residing in the Pacific NW with a husband, 2 girl children (4 and 1), and 2 big dogs. So far none of them have eaten any bricks, although not from lack of trying. Loved legos as a kid, and got back into them when a coworker gave me the women scientists last year. It's been a bunny hole since then and now every room in the house has legos.

This thread is the reason so few speak out against the herd on this site. A well thought out and well presented argument gets torn apart. Is the OP correct on all points? Of course not. He's not completely wrong either. I can't stand the Sea Cow. Therefore I put my limited resources elsewhere. I love the Simpsons House, but am still hesitant to drop full retail on one. What is the point of this site if not to discuss opposing investing ideas? Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't agree with him. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

The vast majority of your buyers will build their sets, that is why a fun/solid build is important in the reselling world. The Sea Cow is unique, nothing else like it. It is whacky, crazy and fun and that's why "nerds" like me drove 50 minutes on launch day to grab one. Yes I can grab a lotr pirate ship, a triple E , or a POTC ship but it is just not the same . My two cents edited to ad: I cared more about the design over the role it played in the move