Leaderboard

OMG Pet Shop is retiring!

Tumbler (somersaults)

Wow. You guys are really bad at this. You missed a clue.

Mixels

Oh boy...if you put your ear down to the ground you can hear the stampede...it's still at a distance but it's moving faster post by post.

what does the size of your houses has to do with

Why not? If the traditional first produced, first retired process becomes more randomized or even based of slow sales, many small time resellers with limited resources and space could be sitting on the wrong set for a long time, thus forcing them out of the flipping business. Would they lose money in the long term, probably not, but their interest in LEGO reselling might decrease, causing them to stop reselling. This random process will "thin the reseller" herd, this is a given in my opinion. It also changes the psychology of the market. People can no longer plan long term. While they are hoarding one set, another disappears right under their noses. It has happened recently and history will repeat itself. Those choosing the right sets will prosper, those who don't...well, I guess they will become "long term" LEGO investors. LOL

Hi guys Lets put some perspective to this thread: Whilst I respect people speculating when sets will retire, that doesn't mean I buy everything that is mentionted. It doesn't even influence my acquisition model much. In general I stick to the following buy/sell rules for exclusives (Normal sets, I buy when there's a steep discount at the end of its life): 1. Never buy sets the year they have been released. Unless it's of the "Lego Ideas" / Seasonal collection it's too soon to lock up capital. => if you do, you'll have a stock of sets that need at least 3 years before really starting to appreciate. This lifts your working capital to unsustainable level and reduces your RoC. The tumbler therefore is too soon to stock up. It will stay live another 2 years at least unless there's a design flaw. => this also reduces the risk of having too many DS, TB (and SSD) for too long for example. 2. Buy the best exclusives released > 2 years ago according to your own evaluation model: this means appreciation potential based on sales, stock, personal preference, regional segmentation, ... This site is full of advise on the matter, so do some reading . I pick all these sets up at a regular rate. Emazers has a very successful system doing so, and I do take his advice in the matter. The 'Macks' also promote this way of buying and show you when and where the discounts are to pick the sets up at the best timing. (like last month for example) => There's also ample time to accelerate the buying when sets start to phase out. Regular screening of reseller sites and this one should help improve the timing even more. 3. Buy the exslusives you missed out on after they have retired if you feel they can appreciate. Even though that means you'll miss out on the discount effect, if the sets is really strong, you'll be able to go for the long-term appreciation. The surprise exit of TH might be a, interesting target. It's stats are good and the retirement earlier than expected. (at the same time of GE) You can still get it on BrickLink at a very good price For info BL at 215E: http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?pg=1&q=town+hall&sz=10&searchSort=P 4. Buy exclusive rare sets that have very limited stock left but very high collector value. I rarely do this, but had some success in the matter (buying some Marina Bay Sands for example at MSRP +100%) It means you are speculating more money on even more appreciation, so the work to put in and risk analysis is higher. But so are the returns. For info: http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?pg=1&q=bay+sands&sz=10&searchSort=P All these comments are with one final purpose: reduce your working capital and improve the returns on capital. Too many people have too many sets stocked away that are still produced by TLG. They have only limited space, and tend to sell too soon, just to free up space and money to get into another set. This pressures again the CAGR and RoC. Make your business model lean and mean. And be careful when you buy: know when you pull the trigger. Once you have a set, selling it will always be more difficult. I hope this helps.

Ed and I want to create a page here in the forum (or somewhere) that will allow anyone who has an eBay and/or Amazon store to create a banner ad and advertise their store during the holiday season. Just PM me with a 728x90 banner and any small message about possible deals that you might be offering. Also make sure you include a link to your store and store name if there is one. If you want to include your Brickpicker name, let me know, otherwise I will keep it anonymous. This can be a good way for you to bring some new life to your store and get your holiday season sales off to a good start.

Three set Chima lot. Lion Chi Temple, Croc Swamp, and Eris Interceptor for $305 shipped. Paid $130. I am almost completely out of Chima. Only one Croc Swamp and one Eris Interceptor left. Yippee!!

Here on the forum there are some people who play the investment game longer and more intensive than other people do... As far as I can tell (from what is said here) Ed and Ed and emazers are pretty serious players. If LEGO investment would be game of thrones then Ed and Ed probably would be Lord Tywin Lanister and Lord Mace Tyrell, while emazers probably would just have hatched three dragons. (So some people like to hear their thoughts on some of the sets).

Does it?

Maybe we get back on topic and speculate what "Sold out" at LEGO Shop at Home EU means to R2s future. Shall we?

what does the size of your houses has to do with

Safety First!

Simply, this is the business model of old. It looks like TLG is now trying to combat resellers with unpredictable EOL with sets. Pretty much the only option now is to decide early on what sets you think are winners and don't procrastinate on buying them. Scheduled EOLs of sets looks to be in the past.

good answer, can't keep those things in stock.

The LEGO boomers (the generation that spent their childhood in the 80s), is just now entering their prime income earning years (mid/late 30s or early 40s). The typical LEGO boomer has 2-3 kids, at least one is probably a boy, and that son is most likely at least 3 by now (I know girls like LEGO too). This is the prime season of their life to leave the Dark Ages and rekindle their love for LEGO. I think its only just begun. Christmas of 2015 will be even more special when LEGO capitalizes on Star Wars. After that will be the new LEGO movie featuring Batman and who knows what else LEGO has up its sleeve? So I agree with Ed, I have no concerns that I won't be able to sell a TH, SSD or HH in 3-5 years for big bucks.

No. Lego, real actual Lego, sells very well in China. Even right alongside the counterfeits. Where do you think I've sold my Tumblers?! TLG is well aware of the counterfeiters. Their legal team is actively pursuing legal action in China (which they summed up by saying basically: lol, good luck to us!). They have been to the trade city in Yiwu and seen all the knockoff offerings first hand and are doing their best (lol, good luck) to get rid of the blatant copiers.

Oh Lord here we go

Nope... to be honest I didn't have a target amount I actually was hoping for next year and may the fourth be with you ^.^ Also I thought that this one will probably go OOS in the U.S. "long" before it does in Europe... I bought 4 though just to be sure and if I can get one now I'll probably do that.

To repeat my reply to legomaniacc, nobody has indicated that the tumbler is retiring early, just at this time very few people would have stock piled any do to it not being available at LEGO Shop at Home. Cross's question was what set to go "Ed" on, and Mack made hints towards the Tumbler. Nothing to do with early retirement, just a suggestion on a strong investment. I'm new to this so I don't have a set investing strategy... yet. Originally my game plan was what you had posted because it really makes sense but this has already changed a few times with what I've seen and read on here in the last six months. I do believe the big boys in this game that don't adapt and overcome to what looks to be TLGs new plan of action, will take some hits down the road and be either forced to change strategies or be pushed out. As for being pessimistic, not at all. I look at this lego investing as a challenge. I don't dismiss any information anyone is willing to share. I decide if it's relevant to me and my goals and make the best educated decision I can.

I think what's being said is that if you want a set that you think is going to be good investment potential, you should start buying it early so that you have enough when they do retire, as it's hard to blow thousands of

The opinion of changing the business model now is only based on the fact that TH (that perhaps was a poor seller so far) went (probably) EOL too soon. What about all the other sets? There is no regular schedule we know about... To end production of sets early sometimes happens, see B-Wing. Why should TLG suddenly come up with a random set-EOL to irritate resellers, what contrariwise brings more disadvantage towards their regular buyers... I think there's more proof to be provided before we can talk about a serious shift in investment habits.

Their retirement schedule has already been all over the board the last 5-6 years though. Just off the top of my head, MMV, FB, GE all took too long to retire. DS, TB, KJ, Batcave are also on that list. Even small sets are getting in on the action, 6862 will be a good one to stockpile with the DS before they both retire in 2020. Besides 10219 Maersk Train, there have been very few big sets that retired "early' that I can think of...If that's where they are headed, it seems like it would be a case of doing more damage to themselves than anyone else could possibly manage to do in regards to aftermarket pricing. Take the Tumbler for example if we are going to speculate that it will face a shortened surprise EOL schedule. Who does TLG do more damage to, themselves with upset customers who only had a shot at a set that's often out of stock for less than a year, or resellers? Those early bird resellers now get to price their retired sets even higher due to the increased demand while almost everyone else loses in that game including TLG, consumers and most resellers.

When you have more then one eBay account and you're logged into one on your phone and the other has things selling and ending.... You miss out on that chaching sound. This has also happened with phone on vibrate. Sucks.

Sorry...LEGO is out to destroy your business model.

Let's take a breath. The question that Cross posted was about what $200 set at this moment should a person go "all Ed" in? My answer, with a few easy and obvious clues was the Tumbler. Chase.Ok figured it out, but I couldn't approve his post from the Iphone. Am I saying this set is going to retire soon? No, but really who knows? LEGO is possibly messing with EOL dates and this is a prime candidate and the recent activity on LEGO S@H is odd. If the recent SSD, Haunted House and Town Hall experience has indicated anything, it has shown that you can never have enough of a grade A investment set. It takes time to accumulate $200 LEGO sets and the Tumbler will be even more difficult to acquire than most. While it is not readily available, it is available at many brick and mortar LEGO stores. The Tumbler is a fantastic set. It is also a Batman set, which only adds to its appeal. Also, the new Batman movie won't hurt sales. It's not always about timing retiring sets. It's about sets that will explode in growth after retirement and acquiring enough of them to make a substantial profit.

Hi there, My first post, to let you know that after the "dance" between expected ship date and "in Stock", now has gone on Lego LEGO Shop at Home Europe.-Sold Out. Glad that i have bought mine 1 month ago, tomorrow we have 50% discount at a big supermarket, maybe can find another. For what i am reading, it's hard to believe that some Star Wars Sets can be EOL because the New Movie it's coming, but there is a probability that Lego thinks the opposite about the oldest sets because they have many more to release, and something have to be done to sell the newest ones. So, i think that there is a probability that R2-D2 can be almost at EOL too as started to do the same dance 2 months ago.

I think many of us assumed he was talking about something retiring soon, without question the Tumbler is an excellent set to go "all Ed" on.

I don't think he was a good Password teammate. Seriously, his hints for this one were "Brown", "Delightful" & "Expensive"...she never had a chance...

Ed said no on that one twice. If it's the somersaulting tumbler than all bets are of as far as retirement schedules, I think it's the set who's thread we are all posting in.

Give me a R give me a D plus 2 plus 2.

I can't play this game without my hat...where is my f%^%^ hat???

Anyone on this site more than five minutes should know better than to expect a clear answer from Ed, just pay attention to what he says and where he says it.

Hmmmmmm... I think I know!

I would say you just missed 3 "all Ed"sets...the SSD, the HH and the TH. To me, there is one "all Ed" set that is currently available and it is a set that you will never have enough of.

Just move. I love everything about Europe. However u ever watch that house hunters show on Europe like 300000 buys you a small apt where in the US I can get a house and a very very big one. How do you all even have room to tore ur lego over there....

I wrote my script yesterday for both Amazon and Walmart. I'm wondering, do you have your scripts buy the item for you when it comes in stock? Or just notify you? I was a little hesitant to have mine auto buy stuff for me... I'm using multiple proxies and randomly sampling between 4 user agents to throw off their bot detection. It ran overnight and all day today and haven't had an issue yet. It's checking every 5 seconds. Right now if the price is what I want, and the item is in stock, my computer volume is set to max and then speaks and says "Price alert!". And the webpage is opened on Chrome. It also sends an SMS to my phone. I had a long lunch break

Some sets just aren't worth selling for that reason alone! I couldn't sell it either, looks to good!

According to your Brickfolio, you have over 500 sets. This isn't a question I'd expect from someone with such a large inventory. At this point, I would think you'd know how to make your own purchasing decisions. You know your financial situation, you know how much effort it takes to sell the product, and you know what you're comfortable buying. I doubt anyone else reading the thread knows these things better than yourself. I'd go with your instincts on this one.

Doing some organizing today...out with the old, in with the new. We have a "what did you not buy today" thread, maybe we need a "what did you not sell today" thread also. My calculator says yes to these two, but my hoarding heart says no, just can't do it...too nice of a set...my preeeciousss:

I think this is maybe the most hoarded set of lego at the moment.

There was such a time? And the forum was actually connected to internet?

6987 Message Intercept Base - pieced together from a bulk lot I bought. Saw the big trans-yellow piece and took a chance that the rest of the set was in there. Only missing a few common parts that I easily found in my collection. It was also missing the crater baseplate, but I had a stack of those on hand. The trans-yellow pieces are in great shape, very clear. This is the only Blacktron I set I needed to complete my collection, very happy to finally have this. It's sooo cool.

Stupid me, I had several opportunities to get these City sets at deep discounts and only bought a couple full sets. I wish I had 10 more of each now. All for $225 City: Space Moon Buggy (3365) City: Satellite Launch Pad (3366) City: Space Shuttle (3367) City: Space Centre (3368) I also sold two of the four Ultimate Brick Boxes (6166) I picked up yesterday for $95 each.

What if you poke a hole in the side of the tank so there is a slow leak? Now it isn't contained anymore.