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Howdy folks, I have been recently strapped for capital as many opportunities have come recently. Keep the info below to myself or share? Hmm. It is not gospel and it is only what I intend to do as I try to get more structure in my acquisitions. Here goes for some of the bigger sets. Feel free to comment, add your own, etc Past history in this series has shown me this is its second holiday season and if this line-up remains consistent it will the last time to buy this at retail. 10211 GE - Probably EOL 10214 Tower Bridge - still perplexed on this one. Have 4 would like at least 10...it is out of any other sets range I am trying to relate it too... Buy small amounts when 2x or 3x VIP points. 10218 Petshop - Wait till mid winter. If GE is indeed retiring I cannot see this disappearing at the exact same time. 10220 T1 Camper - I have already started to accumulate with 2x VIP and poly bag. Makes this set cheap. not sure what set to relate this too either as far as EOL goes. 10223 Joust (have 9) but I am afraid this will be a slow riser just like 10193. This is related to the previous castle theme just like MMV was when it was out. 10224 - OOS many places but I heard from a Lego employee the modular's will go in order, wink 10225 R2 - Start accumulate in late NOV 10226 Sopwith Camel Probably EOL 10227 B Wing EOL (EOL before R2) 10228 HH Probably EOL 10229 EOL 10230 EOL 10231 EOL 10232 Palace Cinema begin accumulating spring of 2016 unless something changes 10233 Horizon Express - Not sure on this one buy when discounts x2 VIP and polys are avail - treat this like a city train, Emerald Night or more like the Maersk train? 10234 Sydney Opera House one of my sleeper sets, higher price per piece but there are also a lot of larger pieces in this set. Look at how ordinary Taj Mahal was for types of pieces. This set is easily recognizable. I believe it will do well. Problem I have: will this follow Tower Bridge production time 4 years or more??? 10235 Winter Village Market - Buy as many as I can before the end of NOV. If I can pair with other discounts great. I take 10229 as an example...I waited on this one till this fall having only 1 on hand until recently...if this follows 10229's timeline it should be an easy 60-80% gain by next Christmas. That is well ahead on my normal annual appreciation rate. I can live with that. 10236 Ewok Village have zero...no idea on this one. 10237 Tower or Orthanc I should probably be accumulating this now. Have Zero. 10240 I will start buying this next May, hoping for a May 4th deal. 10241 Maersk 3x EEE will looking into it Feb- March 2015 10242 Mini Cooper - will this follow the T1 production timeline? If it does there is a lot time for this one. 10243 Parisian Restaurant One of my fav modulars (have 1) from a trade (thanks) will end up with 10+ on this one. No hurry though 10244 Mixer, not a lot of love for this set, had it included the Power Functions I would like it more...but I will be buying this one early summer 2015. Impressive when built, nice engineering when it is stored away. SLEEPER. 10245 Can't say enough about this set...buy now, buy more next year buy anytime there is any give away. (JMO) If it follows the "pattern" it may vanish late winter after Christmas but return late summer or next fall. Anyway other than other non-10xxx sets this has been fun to think about and post. Take it leave it, I am no authority on the matter. This is how I feel about the sets today.

NEW / SEALED Death Star II (10143) - $450 Bought it from a company intranet page. Couldn't believe my eyes! How often do you see a set that's almost 10 years old still sealed like that. Woman's husband got it years ago as a gift...always meant to built it and set it up on display. They moved a few times and he never built it. Wife found it in their basement recently and said "he'll never build it" and decided to sell it. They must not like to sell things on eBay/CL so they "low-balled" it on her company site. My mother actually saw the ad and forward it on. Picked it up yesterday...seals are perfectly in tact. This set is a monster and I'm a happy camper!!!

Here's my feelings on what and when to buy. I just deleted EOL stuff. 10214 Tower Bridge - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10218 Petshop - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10220 T1 Camper - buy up to your planned limit now. 10223 Joust - buy at least one. Avoiding investment here. I love Castle and Kingdoms, but it seems to just not get much love from aftermarket buyers. 10224 Town Hall - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10225 R2 - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10226 Sopwith Camel - buy up to your planned limit now. 10228 Haunted House - buy up to your planned limit now. 10232 Palace Cinema - wait to buy for at least one more year, then buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10233 Horizon Express - buy at least one. I would buy a modest amount for investment in 1 year. 10234 Sydney Opera House - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10235 Winter Village Market - buy at least one. I'm passing on this one, gut feeling. 10236 Ewok Village have zero - buy at least one. Wait 1 more year then buy up to your planned limit over the next 2 years. 10237 Tower or Orthanc - buy up to your planned limit now. 10240 Red Five X-wing - buy at least one. I'm passing on this one as well, gut feeling. 10241 Maersk 3x EEE - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10242 Mini Cooper - wait 1 year, then buy up to your planned limit over the next 1-2 years. 10243 Parisian Restaurant - wait 2 years, then buy up to your planned limit over the next 1-2 years. 10244 Mixer - buy at least one. Passing for investment. 10245 Santa's Workshop - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year.

Madanthony is back selling them on Amazon. Hopefully he'll have another pricing error? Then you can get them at $4

Sold a Police ATV polybag for $5. The time it took me to research market price, take photos, list, print label, find envelop, etc is worth much more than the set. Googled the recipient's address, saw the house and decided to include a Worriz fire bike as a small surprise for the kid.

I can't wait for the new "No-Knock Warrant" set. Comes with a shot dog, a baby injured by a flash bang and a warrant for suspected pot possession.

One Exclusive I am not buying is the Joust, Mostly all the others will make you money.

Buy the fairground mixer instead, it's the next carousel.

This took a little longer than I expected but I'm finally done! Bring on the Detective Agency, hope it's cool.

I'll bite. If you are interested in any of the following set, you should pick up a few every week over the next 6 months. #10188 2008-06 Death Star #10214 2010-10 Tower Bridge #10218 2011-05 Pet Shop #10220 2011-09 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van #10225 2012-04 R2-D2 #79003 2012-11 An Unexpected Gathering #10233 2012-12 Horizon Express #10237 2013-07 Tower of Orthanc If you are looking for the set to load up on now, in hopes for a quick flip, you are playing this game differently than I and I can not help you.

Lol, how bizarre. And what a weird thing to be scrolling through this person's auctions and seeing these all mixed together. It's like.. Aw, this could be a cute choice... "Girls Frozen Elsa&Anna Olaf Snowman Kids Top Blouse T-Shirts Clothes 2-7Y Shirts" Ah, that looks nice for my little sweetpea too... "NEW Frozen ANNA Elsa Princess Dress Coronation Gown Costume Girls Xmas Size 7-8" Whoa...wtf?? "LEATHER GIMP DOG Puppy Hood Full Mask Mouth Gag Costume Party Mask ZIPPED MUZZLE" And... "Exotic Men's Full Body PU Leather Harness Chest O-Rings Goth *** Fancy Buckles"

^^

10183 Hobby Train : $100 complete with box , poster and instructions

Lego would never lie.. lol

I seem to do so much better on lots myself. Just makes 1 shipping cost instead of 3 or 4 and can price at a level I want to make per lot after fees (shoot for $50-100 clear per lot as my goal)

Like Stephen said, read the "What I heard from a LEGO employee today" thread. You will then realize that they don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. That, my friend, is absolute.

Just speaking personally I was told Town Hall and Pet Shop would go before Grand Emporium. I was told by multiple stores and by pretty good resources in my book. Not you're usual "I think that is retiriing soon or next". I never ask this info but sometimes it is given out. When it starts to become a trend I also notice how the store stocks are each time I go in and the various stores I go to (have 8 stores in my travels so I can get a pretty good gauge of what is selling / not selling or available). Obviously not everyone can do that or yet alone have 1 store close to them. Then you can research your big 4 (TRU, Wal-Mart, Target, LEGO). GE has not been back in any of the stores I frequent since the whole retirement thing started. Thats usually a good sign its on its way out. TH and PS have been following that trend. HH and SC both did these same patterns as well. First Shop at Home goes then the other 3 online retailers then slowly the stores dry up and poof there all out. Then you see some small weekly store batches and in and out of internet sites as we've seen. For me HH hasn't been in store in about a month, GE I haven't seen for 3 months and SC hasn't been in the last few store shipments. TH was scarce to begin with at stores and PS wasn't far behind. Then you have Ebay sales which all of these have spiked at the past few weeks. GE is pulling in $225-230 again, TH has been quietly going up weekly for the past few weeks until now its a solid $275 to 300. So the signs are there and have been there. Then for someone who owns/runs the site to nicely drop subtle hints and basically come out and say its retiring and now would be a good time to get some if you want them. I think its a safe bet to invest in them if you can. If you can't thats fine but even if you can't afford to store them just move them now. That way if you don't believe its retiring then you can make some easy money for the next few weeks / months while they pop in and out. If you just buy 2 and flip one you're into the 2nd one for roughly $150. At $150 you can always dump your 2nd one at retail if you can't afford to hold. If you bought them at lego you're only paying $160 a piece to begin with right now with the promos so flipping 1 gets you down to $100ish for your 2nd one. Its a very low risk time to buy these is my point. It will be hard to get to many of them built up right now anyways. The 5 per limit on Walmart yesterday was the best bulk way to get them if you did want to build them up. Theres no reason 3 modulars can't go in the next few months. Theres still 2 out with the 3rd on the way and they take up a ton of shelf space at the stores. Town Hall was never a big seller at the store level from what I can see. Thats why were seeing other large exclusives online only like Maersk and HE lately too. They just don't have the room. Some of the stores said they might have them in at the holidays briefly but other than that there online only for awhile now. I could se ToO also going online only after the holidays as LOTR/Hobbit section is abysmal at most stores to begin with. Literally tucked in a crevice right now. They didn't even sell when they were all marked 20% off over the summer (not ToO but the LOTR/Hobbitt lines). The only reason they have the sections is ToO as its the flagship and then they tuck those around it. Once the new Hobbit sets come and go that beast could definitely be gone. Anyways the signs are there TH is on its way out. Whether your believe inside information or not is up to you but there are people with knowledge and multiple sources have said its leaving sooner than later (on and off this site). Worst case scenario flip the ones you get now and you still win. You make your other purchases cheaper and if they hang around to long for what you desire you'll be able to move the rest you pickup without a loss as somebody else will buy them from you to hold.

You're in luck! This whole forum happens to be CHOCK FULL of 3rd party sellers.

Maybe Tabby thinks that if he says the Pet shop is going to retire next over and over and over and over and over and over that it will.

Looks like 5 to me. Good job at exercising your adherence to the limit and not getting too greedy.

Sacramento, CA.

I would buy 60, sure. Would buy more later if I didn't get everything I wanted in the quantity I wanted. Then I would sell the leftovers. I can't be bothered to feel out the packets.

lucky you Which state? 3.99 in Utah and I don't see new series at our Target or Walmart, only some Simpsons.

However, they deducted the 25% from the $149.99, then the 10% from the discounted price of $112.49. So after I got the extra 10% off, I ended up paying $109.34 for the MF and the Bricktober set. Doesn't matter what order they discount in - you will receive the same final amount. (150 x0.90 x0.75=$101.) - Still a good price.

Nice post, 5+

many share your cagr pain on the DS but all is not dead on the ROI front. factoring in costs and inflation new packaging and shipping costs of larger older boxes along with and no change in the price of the set along with what i must hope is market saturation, i really hope the DS goes sooner than later. not all sets go like the SSD or GE in and out of stock - a few are gone and that's it. DS could be one of those since most lego retail outlets are either asking for more than msrp or don't have any (except for recently this week amazon showing up with some msrp ds). there are a lot of people who have 0 DS and will wish they had at least 1 - just like the SSD. this set will have an immediate pop when it does go to SOLD OUT->RETIRE and the probability of that happening increases every day.

So...they come with extra red bricks...more of those little hammers?

You're right, that there are only a handful of quality sets. And those are the ones I think will be profitable for years to come. I showed a friend of mine (NOT into Legos) the Unexpected Gathering set, and he bought one from me right away (I sold it to him for basically what I paid for it....him being a friend and all...) And ever since then, he's actually gotten into Legos beyond the LOTR theme. But the LOTR theme has him craving for more and more. It's like his gateway drug and I'm his dealer. I actually feel like an awful human right now. Hah.

Dont do that. 5 years from now youre gonna want those ds more.

Over the last two months, I have bought GE, HH, two TH's, and a Tumbler. I'm already feeling the pinch. I'm almost to the point where I'm contemplating selling my DS's (I have three) for below retail so I can use that money to buy more TH's and Tumblers.

And a year from now, you will still be reading the exact posts about half these sets.

Ja that happened with the SSD. It did not flip to retired it just disappeared from the website in the USA.

I'll be passing on this one, it's just way too big to bring into the bath with me.

It's a limit of 5 sets per order. Clearly multiple orders were placed over a period of time, say 5 minutes. Sometimes it's hard to tell if the very idea of a limit on LEGO Shop at Home is just sort of an inside joke between TLG and resellers. Maybe the Ban Hammer isn't corporate policy at all, but just one disgruntled ex-employee out there somewhere who periodically hacks into TLG's network and bans someone for kicks...

it is an open speculation thread. unless someone here is a high level exec @ TLG, there will be no hard evidence

Read through some of the old threads, these exact posts were circulating about half these sets

I just got excited thinking this thing was officially retired. I've been waiting ten months and you all screw with me. Thanks.....

Sold a lot of 5 SW polys, 2 Han Solo, Chrome Stormtrooper, TC-14, and Clone Lieutenant for $80 shipped.

Last year on you could get 3x VIP points and the holiday set 2 of 2. I think that's is enough to make me buy some sets for investments.

Hey man this is a close knit forum and 99% of people get along great, the 1% get modded and will eventually just get banned. You are more than welcome to join this forum everyone is friendly and willing to discuss. Be part of the forums and participate in a friendly non confrontational and you will be fine. You are more than welcome to stay and not rock the boat. It's not personal it's just the way we do it here.

You just did it again. The ge is not retired. I see you are new here so I'm trying to curb my tone very slightly. We have a thread called what you heard from a lego employee today. It's kind of a joke. They know as much as me. Actually I know more. See what Rockefeller said. Take it to heart. Do what you want, it would just save some headaches and pointless reading and clutter if you didn't post speculation as fact. It's annoying.

Even if something is "probable" to retire, you are still holding on to them for at least 1/2 a year - a year anyway. No one knows the exact day a set will retire. You chose to make a leap of faith on some sets but not others. Thats the fun of lego investing right? I don't like star wars that much in general, and I don't buy it (but it does well).

Somewhere between 1 and emazers.

Just to (again) clarify something: I never said this TH buzz was whipped up to drive affiliate sales. I specifically said that because of the order of events (first TH goes out of stock everywhere, then you made comments indicating it might be done), it did not seem that you were trying to drive affiliate sales. As you said earlier, there would be no point to such an effort anyway if the set in question were already out of stock and could not be purchased. The broader question is one of inside information: Does it exist, and how useful (exact and reliable) is it? The advice to buy any great set that has been out for a year or two is not very practical for most people. Without limitless space (my primary limitation), every year a stack of giant exclusives sits somewhere taking up 24 x 20 inches x 6 feet is a year I could have stocked something else that might be turned over more quickly. Even for someone who does live in an airplane hangar, they would obviously get a better return on their capital if they bought as close to EOL as possible. So do I want to miss TH? Of course not. But can I afford (in terms of space, primarily) to stock every exclusive that's been out for at least a year and is now limit 2 on LEGO Shop at Home? The answer is a resounding no. So I (and I assume many others are in a similar position) can't reasonably act on the information available regarding TH thus far.

Another great video, I enjoy your videos. This one reminded me of what LEGO is all about. The true meaning of this great toy gets overshadowed because of what this site is all about. It's great to be reminded once in a while.

I don't want to discourage anyone or be flamed, but I have learned to not just look at the price of old sets, but also the monthly volume sold. I decided to pass on these b/c the monthly sales volume seems low on the older ones. This is the reason I also don't invest in technic anymore. When it comes time to sell they just move too slow. Oh and btw can I interest anyone in my 9396s, 8110s, or 41999s? Perhaps I'll write a contrarian blog about this one, TB, and well I already did Friends.

I found a dol guldur ambush for $5 at Walmart

I'm not sure I understand the appeal in stocking up on the modulars anymore. Fire Brigade will net you 100 bucks a year later after it is retired. While that is still a great return if you bought it at msrp does anyone else have concerns that modulars returns are only going to get slimmer and slimmer?

Gold Mine = $30 profit