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I'm the very definition of a "lurker" but I just wanted to throw something out there.... All this talk of how BP being to blame for all the new sellers out there is way off base. The number of resellers was growing long before BP got off the ground. Here's a (relatively) quick timeline for you all: In 2005, I didn't need to wake up before the sun to hit a clearance isle at Walmart - I could stroll in any time before the next weekend and basically be assured to find everything. I'm pretty certain that not even once was an isle wiped out before I got there. By 2009, it was starting to pick up a bit. Most of the Walmarts in populated areas would be wiped within a day or two of a decent clearance though the more rural ones would still linger a bit more. You would now occasional run into AFOLs in the isle as well, which was certainly strange at first! Also at this time, prices of bulk lots of Craigslist skyrocketed. For those who weren't around in the 2000s, back then you could pick up 50lbs for $100 nearly every week! And most lots were not cherrypicked by the sellers - loads of minifigs, near complete expensive sets, rare pieces were basically always included. Now $100 might get you 20lbs with no minis :/ By 2011/2012, places like Brickset and toysnbricks and whatnot were attracting people to their forums to discuss reselling and investing. Boom. Any part of the cat still lingering in the bag finally jumped out into the open. Clearance was now a crapshoot of getting lucky and hitting a Walmart before somebody else. Besides, these days most of the desirable sets don't even make it clearance. LEGO is popular enough now where most good sets sell out at full price. Honest, I don't even go hunting anymore. My closest 2 targets and that's it for me. I live in NYC (no walmarts in the city) and the tolls and gas required to hunt through Jersey for the off chance of finding something is just not worth it anymore. Now Brickpicker comes along and makes what used to require 10 minutes of research now take only 5. Honestly? So what? The market had ALREADY changed. Many people, new and experienced both, just did not see it. It's not like it is very difficult to notice that a LEGO set doubles it's price after a year. Like I said, 10 minutes on eBAy and how many of you started investing for yourselfs? It doesn't take a genius to flip LEGO guys... The "Good Old Days" sure were easy but they're long gone my friends. But that is no reason to fret. Find a way to adapt and survive or start dumping you stuff now. It most definitely will be more difficult as time goes on but I can assure you that as long as TLG is around there will be an aftermarket of some sorts for parts, minis, and sets. Whether you make any money in the changing aftermarket is entirely on you. Blaming others, deserving or not, doesn't help you move forward. Now....Back to lurking comfortably --Gary edited for typo

This :)

I can't find them on S@H??!!!! Are they EOL already????!!!!!

As a newcomer to LEGO, I'll just say that I have heard all this before - about 16 years ago, when venerable old booksellers told me that what I was doing wasn't going to work, that the book market was dying (this was before e-readers, which actually will affect the book market and are starting to, but really not all that rapidly in many areas), that their way was the only good way to do things. They believed it, too. Hell, some of them STILL argue with me to this day that I'm doing it wrong. It doesn't make their way wrong either, there is just more than one way to skin cats and sell books or LEGO. Some of the newbies they lectured did go out of business rapidly. Some of us made it. Some of the lecturers are still around, some didn't last the market changes themselves. Selling is a matter of numbers in quantifiable cost, time, effort, and knowledge. LEGO isn't different or special versus selling books or Barbies or lumber or potatoes. What makes me successful as a businessperson is understanding numbers and customer service, having excellent organizational skills, a bit of working capital, an aversion to debt and its risks, and a lamentable absence of the Fear of Failure gene. I'm quite annoying about falling down, picking myself up and dusting myself off cheerfully, and going to plans B, C, D... Some new people will fail, some will succeed. Some old people will fade away unable to change with the times, some will change and thrive. No market stays stagnant - that's a fact of business and nature. Change or die. I don't know the definition of "real money" - it honestly isn't of a lot of interest to me. I know my numbers, my projections, my goals to meet. If I get what I'm after, I'm calling it a win. Maybe I could make more buying and holding for a really long time, or day trading in the stock market, or putting it all on "black" at the first open casino, or quick flipping LEGO, or joining the circus (I mean, you don't meet talking frogs every day)... but that's not my plan. I have no new angle. I look at what the market wants, I select from those wants the things I think I can provide well. It's that simple and that hard. (Edited for hilarious typos).

Why should the LEGO secondary market be any different than running an ordinary business these days? If you ignore the LA-LA LAND known as the stock market and the disconnected vision of the world it gives some people, you will realize that small to medium businesses in the US(and I'm sure all over the world as well) are struggling to make money. I have owned a brick and mortar business for 20 years and it is more difficult than ever to grind out any profit at all, so I am not surprised by the negative attitude of some members. Many people were spoiled with insane returns early on in the eBay/LEGO reselling days. I cannot blame them for being upset. The Money Train has derailed. That being said, there is still enough potential for people to "grind" out a nice profit. The Asian market is expanding and The LEGO Group continues to show strong profits. Heck, sometimes, there is still a way to make a short term, kick butt profit flipping certain sets like the AS, Minecraft, Crawler and others. I am truly sorry that some believe this site will destroy the secondary market. While the added exposure might bring more people into the hobby/business, it will also bring added buyers as well. The added exposure will help increase brand recognition and keep the values high. More and more people will realize that LEGO bricks are valuable and they will treat them as such. What I can promise you is that Jeff and I will help any person who wants to get involved in this undertaking by offering a quality forum to ask questions and to give people some tools to help research and track investment choices. The new Daily Deals that will be released shortly will help people save money and the Brick Classifieds will help members save money selling their sets on an active marketplace by charging little(1-2%), if any fee to do so. For those who are willing to put in some work and research, the future looks promising...

I had no idea all this activity was going on in this thread. As already stated, these discussions generally involve those who have been doing this a while recognizing that things are changing while all the newer people say that everything is fine. I don't need to study any graphs or charts to know that the market is very different than it was several years ago and it's only continuing to go that way. To those who are so sure everything is fine, what are you basing that off? You're happy because you're making 1/3 less than you would have made a few years ago doing the exact same amount of work, you just don't know it. The question becomes will you be happy when you actually start to see for yourself that you're making less than when you started? Every year there are more and more people who come in and think they've got the new angle that's going to let them make their mark in the LEGO reselling world. Many will fail, but enough will succeed at least enough to continue doing it. Honestly, nobody is coming up with anything innovative here. It's all been done before. You're going to do it better than everyone else? Do you really think the people who have been doing this for years haven't already done the amazing new tactics you have? I'm not saying it's game over and there's no money to be made, but the real money is going to be in holding a really long time, but I doubt too many will be willing to hold on that long. Sure, there will be the random sets that pop up that are ripe for quick flips, but it will only get tougher.

IMO it is really kind of pointless to compare LEGO to other commodities such as beanie babies and baseball cards because LEGO is not like said commodities. With most things you buy it is one product. With a LEGO set you are buying one thing that contains100's of seperate elements each with their own value. And all of those elements will combine with other elements. Elements from 30 years ago will still work with elements today. And a rich and vibrant culture has developed around this. To the point were people can make good money just selling their custom builds. How many other products can put a claim to this. I really can't think of any. This combined with a company who have a reputation for producing a quality product and who are careful to not flood the market makes me feel very secure about having a spare bedroom full of expensive boxes of fun.

I just got the flyer Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

I keep it really organized in the LEGO room. This is just overflow that hasn't been entered in to BP yet. http://youtu.be/o74jo3UpQ1s

Sold 400 of those by selling them $.50 cheaper than you.. profit maybe slim but I do not do math... HA!!! :)

Ammunition I got into Barbies, no pun intended, back in the mid 90s when my eldest daughter started playing with them. I remember making a killing on the Teacher Barbie with no panties and buying a lot of those high end collectible, don't open the box, ones from a store in NJ called Caldor that was like a walmart but now long gone on their going out of buisness sale

And how many sellers have quit the LEGO selling game since January 2010? Raise your hands... oh, wait, you're not here so you can't.

The Lego Movie Micromanager Attack 30281 polybag has been spotted at Meijer... Hopefully it shows up at other stores as well since I am not driving 90 minutes to go to Meijer!

I am still bullish, as indicated by my wife yelling at me this morning about my Target.com charges from last month's super sale. I invest long term, so the daily gyrations of the site's members and prices don't really bother me much. I see a very consistent and steady trend to the upside, with solid gains year over year, similar to The LEGO Group's own numbers. More sellers? YES. More buyers? YES. Are they in proportion? DON'T KNOW. Can profits still be made in LEGO investing? YES...if you are smart and put in some work.

No bullying?

Relevant dot gov website: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Currency/Pages/legal-tender.aspx In particular: The linked page at the Treasury goes on to give a specific example of merchants being able to refuse pennies, dollars or large bills.

Look, this thread started off with one member asking if anyone else was experiencing a slowdown in eBay sales. Without any real data or analysis, a number of people decided this was a good reason to complain about the increase in the number of resellers. Some chose to blame this site (unfairly, and as many have pointed out, without good reason). Some have tried to blame other resellers/investors for ruining the market, without having any research to back it up. Has the market changed? Yes, obviously. Is it a reason to get out? If you're looking for one, sure, it's as good as any. Somewhere in all this we got data (thanks Jeff and Ed!) that indicates a slow down in eBay sales in March is typical. Good information! Facts! Data-driven analysis! Yay! No drama there, nothing to see here, move along thanks! Many long time sellers have taken the opportunity to share their observations and it is much appreciated. Some others have made unhelpful observations and/or assertions of a dubious nature, and then resorted to ad hominems and straw men when called out for it. This is a data driven site. Let's stick to it whenever possible. If we have to make guesses, or have opinions, that's great - but let's make sure we call a spade a spade. Is it tougher now then it was 2-5-10 years ago? Sure, because that's how markets work as they mature. If you don't like it, feel free not to participate! No one will think less of you (at least, I won't). Gripe and moan and point fingers, then I think less of you. Not that my opinion of you matters. So like I said, let's use this site to make data-driven decisions and analysis. And double entendres about polish sausage, because that's, uh, important too.

I bet you do

Even your 1/3 less is probably being conservative - Fortunately, I have been able to counteract that a bit by growing 4 times larger. Here are some examples of how things have changed: For years I was able to accurately predict my sales/income based on the number of listings I had, and their values (increase your listings 50%, increase your sales 50%). Now you need to keep growing just to keep the status quo. Up until a couple years ago you could list a partial of a rare set, and the reaction would be ridiculous. Buyers once had a desperate hunger to obtain something rare when it was listed. Why? because they weren't available that often - and when they were made available, there was a feeding frenzy, and the item would be gone - quick. There was a time that I would purchase everything on ebay that was priced too low (everything) - and if I didn't buy it, someone else would have. It kept the market valuations honest, and would just be sold later on. During the last couple years, low priced items have become so prevalent that I have needed to stop doing it (as have others). Nowadays, low priced items can just sit and go unsold - there was a time that those same items wouldn't have lasted an hour. Up until about a year ago, aside from the instances of SW re-releases, I never had to lower my prices from where my previous listing (of the same item) had been sold - that is no longer the case. That was a hard/sad one to accept, not because the money, but since to a certain degree - it was my acceptance that growth had stopped. People can say that it is still worth doing (which it is), but don't try to say that things haven't changed.

If the World economy colapses (as it should based on the evidence and sight of whats happening) the LEGO investment will collapse aswell.... Thats a fact.... Its not just about resellers vs buyers and collectors.... Its about the fact that people live worse and worse, and the money is worth less and less (inflation) 1st things to cancel in times of worldwide crisis will be commodities such as LEGO.... So best thing to invest these days is ammunition and food reproduction Mark my words

Whitefang from Eurobricks just released his review. Glad the distribution is back to 3-4-5!!!!

Me keep saying to keep buying the big exclusives all the time well I am sure many are not doing it, they would rather wait till the last minute when the word is retiring soon, and like I said from the beginning alot of the would be investers from say in the last year have started to crack, some can't wait a week,month,etc they just can't wait, as for the exclusives when Amazon,etc was still having those flash sales there were still guys on here that would not buy the sets, they wanted the sets cheaper, now with no sales alot of guys are not buying them until they get ready to retire.

My take on this is the Lego Blue Blood sellers are now running scared. They know change is upon them and yet are clinging to the old ways of the game. Lego is not my only product nor is it my main product but I have seen the same scenario play out in each product category I sell in over the last five years on ebay and amazon: higher sales numbers while at the same time lower margins. Selling more means more work but at the end of the day I know my greatest strength in this game is being able to out hustle 90% of the people playing it.

Beanie Babies. I was in on them from the beginning I went from being 1 of 3 sellers at a large flea market to 1 of 100 all in one year. You had to have the newest releases and the rarest retireds to lure customers to your table. They had exclusives, hard to find, and limited editions. Then they made better versions of their retired items and people no longer wanted the retired items. You used to have to sleep out overnight to get your limit of 2 new releases for $5 each that you could flip for $25-$100. Then they flooded the market with new product and there was no more secondary market demand as you could walk into any store and buy all you wanted no limits. Then you couldn't give them away. You had to know when the time to get out was and unload your inventory. Back then nobody thought that money train would ever stop until the company Ty changed their business model. I have some MWMT Princess Bears I will gladly trade you for your MISB DS ;)

Just a heads up, from March 28 - April 2, they are having 20% off all their legos, including the new stuff if anyone wants to grab some of the new sets at a discount.

Barbie Dolls. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Here is to hoping they start a tradition of having a UCS set on sale for $100 each year...

Which is the smart thing for them to do. If I couldn't make the profit margin I wanted in what I was selling, I'd figure out what I had to do differently to meet my goals, and that might include moving on to other widgets, other markets, etc. Shouting at the rising tide that its ruining my sandcastle isn't an effective business strategy.

The problem is that the number of sellers on ebay(and everywhere else) is increasing at a faster rate than the sales growth. But there's no point in discussing it, everyone will believe what they want.

Ever since this thread started I haven't had any sales. Time to dump my inventory and start investing in something else...I heard that the Spatula market is pretty wide open...Who's in?????

LEGO's between a rock and a hard place. Their target audience (children) are by nature violent and bloodthirsty. Ask any mamby-pamby parent who has tried unsuccessfully to get her young son not to make "guns" out of sticks and sandwiches. And it's not just boys - girls enjoy a good rock-throwing fight as much as any boy does, and as for psychological warfare, well, nobody holds a candle to us double-X-Chromosome types. So, they provide their target audience with what they want and pretend they're taking a moral high road because they don't do modern-day weapons. And Simpsons, a pretty adult-themed cartoon, adds another layer. They're trying to have it both ways and, like any hypocrite, having a hard time justifying themselves to either side of the fence they're straddling.

You gots lotza spunk........for a newbie!!!!!

Wow Alcarin!! Way to bring down the morale of the forum you doomsayer!!! I'm not buying the Yellowstone thing either.....pretty damn funny though!

OK Comrade...I guess that picture of a shirtless Putin on horseback convinced you to put down your weapons. LOL Sent from my iPad using Brickpicker

What I have heared from friends of mine is they all are waiting for months now for those Simpsons minifigs to come out. They are not investors, just collectors. So if Lego did not produce enough in the first wave. And it goes on sold out. There is a big chance for us investors to earn some cash. I like them alot and I have very good faith in this theme!

So I am just reading this thread now, and just got to this comment. As someone who was in the sports card business in the 80's and 90's. I can see how you might have this opinion if you were on the outside looking in. But number of dealers, buyers whatever had very little affect on killing the market. It was the Card companies that were the dominating factors that killed the industry. Example; in 85 for baseball there was 3 sets (Topps, Fleer, Donruss) in like 92 there was a new set ever day. People could not keep up, card life shrank to less that 6 months( more like 3 months or less in my opinion), and new packs went from less than a buck to hundreds of dollars. so quick recap. In 7 years we went form 3 to hundreds of sets, and from less than a buck a pack to if I remember right one was over $500 new. Dealers had no control over market saturation, the manufacturers got greedy and went for the quick buck. This is just 1 of the big factors in the death of cards, but number of dealers and buyer was never one of them. Touchy subject for me, I was young and family took advantage of me, I lost millions because I made the mistake of going into business a) with family with a partner, and c) buy allowing an adult as I was a minor at the time, to take ownership, allowing my opinion to no longer matter or sharing the profits with me as they sold off my inventory. Again I am just up to page 5 if this has been brought up already, I apologize

So I just started on this site in Feb 2014, when I finally decided to spend money on Star Wars Legos that I've wanted for so long but held off cuz of stuff like buying a car, a home, supporting a wife and child... you know, lame stuff... Then I happened upon this site and now I've spent over 10Gs on Legos in a month... but I'm not worried because I'm not buying on credit, I've budgeted so that my family won't starve, and I can still make payments on the home. So the way I see it, if the Lego market continues to grow and make money, great! I'll be able to pay for sets I love through some sales. If not, and the market crashes, great too! Now I can finally get my hands on green grocer and UCS sets without spending an arm and a leg. So as long as you're in it for the love of Lego and not mortgaging your home or buying on credit, however the Legos ends up should be good for Lego enthusiasts no?

And, actually, when I started in books in 1997 on eBay we did see a seller population explosion that possibly rivals anything seen in LEGO right now - the rise of amazon, the development of the bar code scanner. It was a wild ride.

Yes there was.... oh wait a minute not that one. Then there was..... nope not that one either. But there has always been..... short answer. NO.

I had one just like that in college, my wife found this one at a garage sale for $25. We think it's an old teachers desk.

I can change the title.

Actually I don't think that means anything. How many times have we mentioned that everyone here is not a lego investor? Many come here are fans of lego and look to the LEGO daily deals to get a good deal. Some read the forums, some read the blogs, some do whatever it is that they do, but all do not have a huge stash of lego

I don't think people are that stupid. There are more sellers...and collectors and buyers as well. If you want to get a general feel for interest in LEGO in general, take a look at Brickset's web traffic numbers over the years. They have nothing to do with investing and reselling, yet their traffic and member counts have exploded.

I wish you would stop confusing us with facts. The sky is falling and we're all going to die, several people have said so repeatedly, so it must be true.

Courtesy of Brickset...

I still feel like avoiding the entire Simpsons line. I'm not convinced yet.

You haven't seen anything yet. Wait till you see all the new ways we will promote LEGO and the new Daily Deals and Classifieds, with a new look on the site and the way it all ties together. We are the Alpha and the Omega. We are the Beginning and the End of LEGO investing....MUHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

It is a post like this which sums up my feelings on this subject and why this site was developed. There are plenty of untapped markets and sets for the LEGO investing party to continue. For those "old timers" who were spoiled by 100%+++ returns in less than a year, sorry that Jeff and I pooped on your parade. Adapt or die. The incessant complaining about the good old days and how BrickPicker ruined the market is growing tiresome. Obviously, the value of many sets continues to climb. Maybe all of you anti-BrickPicker types are choosing the wrong sets to sell. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker