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I am also a newbie brought here by the national news articles, though I am a long time collector (and remain a collector first, investor second). I agree the market has changed even in the last 12 months, and it takes more work now than maybe it did last year. But get a grip, people. LEGO has not, as far as we can tell, substantially increased the supply. While it may be harder to flip sets and take longer to sell at the price point you want, there are still only so many of each set available while demand (as others have noted) is increasing. So yes, there probably aren't any Corner Cafe or 10179 style returns left out there. But investors have been saying that since I joined this site. If you think there is a bubble, by all means get out. But I dare say those who think the investment potential is "ruined" don't really understand LEGO. If you are here because LEGO is your play of the moment, that's great and I'm happy you are able to be a part of the LEGO community for however brief a moment. I am an engineer who has been a LEGO fanatic since I was 5 years old. I can say with relative certainty that I am an engineer in large part BECAUSE I played with LEGO from an early age. Pure investors who are in this looking for the play du jour may think that LEGO is just like any other collectable, but I think this is ignorance. You just don't understand the LEGO idea. I could natter on about this, but it's been said before. Bottom line is, unless/until LEGO drastically changes their business model the market for resellers is going to be stable. Predictions of a worldwide collapse in demand sound to me like the claims the dollar is going to collapse and the U.S. will become a third world economy. Believe it if you like, and by all means get yourself out of LEGO if you feel you need to. I'll keep on collecting the LEGO system as long as I live (or until the dollar collapses LOL) and if I can make a little money on the side while subsidizing my collecting habits, all the better.

I'm 13 so any profit is better then doing nothing at all and wasting mine time with TV, Video Games, etc. If nothing else I'm learning how to run a business and be successful. -I don't always go shopping, but when I do I buy Lego-

I can't find them on S@H??!!!! Are they EOL already????!!!!!

It is a post like this which sums up my feelings on this subject and why this site was developed. There are plenty of untapped markets and sets for the LEGO investing party to continue. For those "old timers" who were spoiled by 100%+++ returns in less than a year, sorry that Jeff and I pooped on your parade. Adapt or die. The incessant complaining about the good old days and how BrickPicker ruined the market is growing tiresome. Obviously, the value of many sets continues to climb. Maybe all of you anti-BrickPicker types are choosing the wrong sets to sell. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

I just don't get that argument - that everybody and their mother is investing in Lego. I live in a pretty big metro area - San Diego. Within an hour of me, there are over 15 different Walmarts. The same with Target and the other big retailers. You might think I'd see tons of stuff go on sale, but we don't. We get the occasional clearance sells, but for the most part, they don't exist. In 1 1/2 years on this site, I've found two other people that live in San Diego - and that was just within the past week. I don't know *anyone* that does Lego investing in my real life. I talk about it often with friends and family, mostly because they want to know how I seem to buy all these Legos, and finance such an "expensive" hobby. No one has ever taken my advice about investing. No one has ever come to be with more questions on where they can find sets cheap. Even when I hear about Slickdeal level type deals, and pass those along to friends and family, no one ever takes advantage of them. It seems like we tend to think we're a lot bigger than we are. It's just like any fandom. I've been apart of Star Trek, Star Wars, and Doctor Who fandoms in varying degrees over the last 25 years, and when you're in that group, you think you're a majority. But you are really a tiny tiny minority in the bigger picture. There's still plenty of room and plenty of niches to carve out in Lego investing. Slow and steady wins the race. Figuring out the strategy that works for you, and what your investment goals are, will be what makes you a success. Sometimes, though, you can't see the forest for the trees.

And how many sellers have quit the LEGO selling game since January 2010? Raise your hands... oh, wait, you're not here so you can't.

I hate to break it to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there, but Jeff and I have observed this type of graph and data since we have started keeping track well over 3 years ago. The same shape of graph, over the same time periods, with the same ups and downs, highs and lows. We have seen it for site activity, CAGR, # of sales, total $ sales and so on. It is remarkably consistent. This whole conversation is based on one seller's observations, with no other basis in fact. So I wouldn't bail on LEGO investing just yet if you want my opinion.

Courtesy of Brickset...

I thought your generation were just a me me me lazy sack of **** give me. Money while I play video games class. Good for you man. Keep doing what you're doing.

I can give you all evidence of more "sellers" or "investors" than a few years ago. Here we go. Who here was "selling" or "investing" in LEGO before Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Ok, just a handful. Now, who started AFTER Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Wow, too many to count. Come one guys and gals its not rocket science. Yes there are more. Yes the pie has to be split up more. Yes sales per individual will be less per same unit. Remember: Denial is not a river in Africa. Ok, new question. Who here was solely a "buyer" or "hobbyist" until you started "investing" or "selling". Wow, that's a lot of hands. No more need to discuss. Class dismissed.

I wish you would stop confusing us with facts. The sky is falling and we're all going to die, several people have said so repeatedly, so it must be true.

Picture.

But the most important lesson most have never learned, is that this is not a get rich quick ponzi scheme. Lego is a solid performing commodity which outperforms the stock market - but it takes time to see the rewards. Sure, there's the odd quick flip. But in general, those with no patience for financial gain need not apply.

It doesn't help that everybody and their mother is "investing" and selling legos on Ebay, Craigslist, "online store", etc now. One simple search on Ebay by Average Joe, the casual lego consumer/collector, will throw a light bulb on that legos sell very well on the secondary market and then the idea is planted. After that, a quick Google search leads to many sites like this and, just like that, we have a new lego investor saturating the market. I'm sure that is happening and will happen on a weekly basis for the forseeable future, especially seeing what some of these higher end sets are selling for now. I mean, let's be realistic. This site is great and informative but at the same time is "giving away the secret" to how it is all done, right done to the very last minute detail. Delusions of grandeur are one of human beings worst traits. Not to mention the economy is not that great anymore so many of these newbies will be contempt with making only a few bucks on the side to get by meaning they are willing to lower their prices below what many here would sell their product for. On top of that, so many of us have 10-50 sets that we want to list two years after retirement, all at the same time. I mean seriously, what do we really think is going to happen!!?? One has to admit that it's beginning to get a little out of hand.

The graph tells us nothing except what the last year looked like. We need the last 2 or 3 years to make any meaningful guesses and comparisons. If the sold graphs are holding steady while the listing graph is growing, that implies that the seller pool is growing while the buyer pool is holding steady. We need 2-3 years worth to have a meaningful discussion.

$1 billion dollars Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Here is to hoping they start a tradition of having a UCS set on sale for $100 each year...

EVERYTHING IS NOT AWESOME .. LEGO IS GUNNA CRASH AND BURN GET OUT NOW

What evidence (real data, not made up) do you have that supply is outpacing demand? Keep in mind, investors are NOT the supply. LEGO factories are the supply. A LEGO set in the hands of an investor isn't 2 LEGO sets, it's still just one. LEGO, as we all know, attempts to limit the affects investors have on the overall supply in the short term. Investors who buy and hold create an artificially tight supply in the short term, not the other way around. Resellers cannot affect the supply, only the current price point. In the end, only LEGO controls the actual supply. And they are pretty particular about not oversaturating the market. For the record, Brickset shows (359) 2014 releases, which includes all promo items, poly bags, juniors, Duplo, collectible minifigures, etc. Just so we're using real data. I would say 2014 is probably an anomaly with the Movie sets being an extra theme, 2 collectible minifig releases, etc. Time will tell. I am not worried. For the record, Amazon sales have been steady for me in 2014. Same with BrickLink. I don't do much on eBay.

This is not going anywhere; trust me. These modulars are not treated by the Lego group same as every other typical set they release. Regardless of popularity and/or price, we should see now that Lego seems to have more of a timed routine with the modulars and the time for this one is still a ways off as in by the end of 2016 after the Grand Emporium retires by the end of this year and then Pet Shop at the close of the next. As for the lack of chatter about the Town Hall, the reason for that is this set is nowhere near retirement and thinking of sinking a few $200 amounts on a set that will inevitably sit for a long time while taking up resources which could be better spent/used elsewhere in the meantime is just not a good idea. In a couple years, this could end up being hoarded like the Fire Brigade. Haha. Everything has its time, but right now just isn't the Town Hall's.

Sorry some of the photos may be blurry, quick shots in the darker basement (first time trying to add photos) Ah Ha

I think many investors are young like myself or past middle age. Those older people will pass away eventually or just not do it anymore cause its work and they are freaking 75. Those younger like myself well most will have life happen. Marriage moving changes etc where it's just not feasible for then anymore. I know I'm in left field a bit but I have a huge luxury right now with storage situation, money etc. Things may not always be that way. If I eve have to move the first thing *** thst would pop on my mind is damn I have a lot of lego. Do I really want to move all of these or trust movers in whatever. Or should I just sell and take what market dictates. I know this is so far from op but seems it's gone that direction of bubble speculation. Life happens and when it does lego investing is bottom of totem poll for most. My real job, gf, happiness etc would come first.

I think that there are many new resellers that are starting off on smaller sets that are flodding the market because they are not patient and do not want to sit on some of the sets for a couple of years.

...amount of total sale the same but if its more sellers each share much less...

How do you cancel a hundred CL listings?

I actually think the graphs provide Doofy (the OP) with some relevant trends. I would guess his recent drop in sales is due in part to the reduced sales from this time of year (as the graph shows) but also, as he and others speculated, from the decision to utilize 'Good till canceled' listing duration. From my own experience, my listings tend to sell during the first week or so of listing. Once you pass that 10 day mark, the chances of a sale on a particular listing plummet. When the item is relisted, there's another spike in view and often that same listing that languished for a month sells. With 'Good till cancelled', you don't get that fresh spike in views after relisting.

Didn't you know that if its said on the internet it has to be true?

    TC-4 is the one I think you are referring to.

I'm holding out for Darth Tater.

Can u two just go fight out back or something.

Oh great. Now I want Darth Nihilus and Kreia too :p

Minor nitpick, but one that drives me nuts - the number of people that use "S&****" to mean Lego Shop at Home. When they really should be using LEGO Shop at Home. It's Shop AT Home - hence the @ sign. Not Shop AND Home.

Oh I have some non-appropriate pictures from when one of my friends came over to watch my dogs. I had to clean up a lot of legos. The stuff he did with the protocol droids was the worst. But luckily they refrain from that at work. They did race some of my technic sets with the dinosaurs on them in the hall. If you want to feel the atmosphere I work in, its like this:

Okay, but how do you explain the glass slippers right next to them? :-D When the time comes to sell, I'm thinking of bundling Town Halls with the Delorean. Great Scott!

My Toys "R" Us only had the shredders lair set. -------------------- Visit my eBay store: http://stores.ebay.com/mo-state-bricks

You are lazy. I bet you are typing this from your Obamaphone, sitting on the couch eating chips, playing minecraft and collecting welfare.

eBay is actually a great place to get most of your packing and shipping materials! A lot of sellers even offer free shipping on that stuff. Start your search there!!!

I hope you are not referring to me on this one Frog. My posts are usually cheeky and fun, it's the other peoples' posts that are cruel and tragic. Lol.

agreed. Before lego investing *** I used to sell vintage video games. Thst market sucks so much now. Still money in it with yardsale finds and such but why pay 200 bucks for that rare super Nintendo rpg when you can just download it for five bucks on Xbox The key is always be one step ahead and aware of trends and try *** to predict the future as u can.

Don't even pay attention to Brickfolios. i just started using mine in January. And I only use it for investment sets - and ones I am not currently selling. I have 300 sets not in my Brickfolio.

Welcome!

Wow, great score!

I only sell a few LEGO sets on occasion but i do sell a lot of star wars and diecast items frequently. One thing that i have noticed is that Ebay and Amazon have been gouging on fees. Ebay even charges fees on shipping, which a seller doesn't even make any money on. To compensate, you have to raise prices. But buyers don't realize the costs involved now in selling so they just think you are price gouging. In some instances, Ebay is actually making more on the sale of my item than i am. That's just not right. So i will be selling less and less. Ebay will eventually fee themselves into the ground because of their greed. The toy market in general has taken i hit lately as a whole as well. With Hasbro's poor marketing and distribution and Mattel's inability to provide what they sell, it's no wonder LEGO has moved to number one. But the flaws mentioned have soured a lot of consumers' mouths and they have been much more choosy in how they spend their dollars. I know LEGO doesn't share in these flaws that Hasbro and Mattel have, but it does have an effect on the buying habits of the consumers.

I have also observed that, but the number of investors that stay are steadily increasing for what I have seen.

That was one of my original avatars...until I had an actual portrait taken.

I'll order and mail them to you or anyone Stateside, as long as you're prepared to pay the shipping costs

For reference, a LOT of sets don't appear in various catologs, it is one of the worst ways to determine EOL dates IMO.

I don't know... If I were a big Bricklink seller or eBay reseller I'd at least lurk here to learn about the good deals. And I know for sure at least one of us is full-time ecommerce, reselling only books and Lego, and the Lego are gaining ground all the time. Fortunately, I'm not the worrying kind. I make a plan, implement it, change it as necessary, and end up a winner instead of a whiner worrying over what everyone else is doing that's mean, unfair, or lacks restraint.