I just want to further touch on a vital point that ED has made in that LEGO investing is heading towards a bear market. I like to use Kenny Rodger's The Gambler as an analogy to LEGO investing and from the signs and the writing on the wall I think that we are at, or at least getting close to the "...know when to walk away, know when to run". Whilst I warmly welcome you to the fold Gazza, I think your arrival couldn't have been at a worse time.
Whilst I welcome a plethora of new people to the game around this time every year, fast forward a couple of months and a vast majority of them fade into obscurity, never seen or heard from again. However, signs have been appearing that have me slightly worried about any future prospect or viable return in investing short/long term. Facebook, as ED has eluded to has seen a significant increase in (clueless) investors and for those with a keen eye a lot of major players on the BSS pages are dumping their stock. While this maybe the time of the year to offload inventory to payoff credit cards, take a holiday, etc; it is quite heavy compared to the inventory "dumping" that occurred this time last year.
Another is the constant refresh of highly collectable items (I used items for a reason) that have retired, this is evident in the Winter Toy Shop, Bumble Bee & Hot Dog Keychains, and now the Chicken costumed CMF. Whilst it is widely known that LEGO refresh/rehash their sets every few years, a big one being the City theme, however this is starting to spill out into other theme, possibly negating any returns for a longterm hold strategy.
Where does this thought process stem from - Is it a result of LEGO being lazy? A combat measure against resellers? Cyclic Market?
While others firmly believe that LEGO is gunning for the investors, I personally think its a little of column A and a little of column C. From a personal viewpoint, I think LEGO has fallen victim to its ego, believing that consumers will purchase anything and everything from them regardless of quality due to the fact they are the biggest Toy maker in the world. This is evident by themes such as Chima, Ultra Agents and now Nexo Knights, whilst these themes appeal to a certain market - my point is evident by what is left after a sale/christmas rush in the LEGO isle.
Another sign would be the increase in the LEGO currency that is more valuable than gold, well it is, if tabloids are to be believed. We all know where I am going with this point, so I'll leave it there.
Anywho, happy to welcome all the new members, I can't stress enough - DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Those with experience are more often than not willing to provide guidance and help out with potential winners/losers - but we will not assist those who simply come on here without doing the regulatory reading and ask "What should I buy for max $$$".
- J