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First time we've ever hit 100 orders in 24 hours. I'll try to grab a picture Monday before the mail pickup.

Who is this nobody you speak of...?

I love the Sea Cow more with each passing day...

Welcome to the first entry of what I would like to think of as a revamped Evaluation Corner article. The idea behind this new format is to offer a little more historical and analytical data when evaluating sets for potential investment, in a more visual way. Hopefully you will like it; be sure to add your feedback or comments! Historical & Theme Analysis The topic of this first article will be the recently released The Brick Bounty – 70413. The “Pirates” LEGO theme has become one of those recurring ones we expect to pop up in stores every few years. It really needs no explanation; kids love pirates and AFOLs really appreciate a well- designed LEGO ship. So, how has the Pirates theme performed over the course of the years when compared to some of the other “evergreen” lines? As you can see, the theme sits slightly below the average LEGO theme CAGR of 11.55%, seemingly indicating the performance of its sets has not been quite as stellar. However, it is important to mention that all of the themes showcased above have been around for a long, long time. The aggregate CAGR number is somewhat skewed negatively as time goes by and the return gets spread out over a larger period of time and more sets are added to the sample. Of course, these only highlights the performance of the theme as a whole, and while that is good information to have, we should focus our attention in the performance of pirate ships. The graph below includes all the pirate ships in the theme with over 500 pieces, excluding the Imperial Flagship. It is pretty clear that while the overall theme CAGR is not that impressive, the return on investment for these ships is the complete opposite. All of them have increased AT LEAST 100% in value, with the most recent example of 6243 Brickbeard’s Bounty. Set Analysis Realistically, I believe that 6243 is the one set that will provide more insights into the potential performance of 70413 The Brick Bounty, as the sets themselves are extremely similar. The rest of the sets in the list are either Pre-2000, or re-releases of previous versions. It is encouraging to see that LEGO decided to go with a significantly higher piece count for this newest pirate ship release. While not on the same level as the retired Pirates of the Caribbean sets, I do think that the design of the set is very appealing and the set reviews on LEGO Shop at Home seem to suggest buyers think the same. I do want to note that some people feel the “interior” of the set could have used a little more detail. Besides that, the set includes 7 standard Pirates minifigures, none of which strike me as special enough to increase the value of the set once retired. It would be nice if LEGO found a way to innovate/change the minifigures in this line; they are just too similar to previous versions. Since this set has practically just been released, it is pretty normal not to read too many comments about it in the forums. I think there will be plenty of time to acquire this set at decent discounts, and the initial price point of $99.99 already makes it appealing for the less “serious” LEGO investor. Future Performance I figured I would include some sort of forecast of where I think sets will go in the future in my articles, based on basic regression analysis and just plain trending. If nothing else, it can give some people a very high level idea of potential future performance. In this particular case, the sample is way too small to run any kind of significant regression as, in reality, there is only one set that I see as comparable to The Brick Bounty (Brickbeard’s Bounty). Still, I do believe the path of 70413 can sort of follow that of 6243, so we can still make a high level prediction of long term value. 6243 – Performance One thing to note about this graph: the points in blue are estimated, as we have no actual data points that far in the past. I estimated them based on the usual assumption that retired sets grow a lot faster over the first 2 years of retirement, and then plateau at around 4 or 5 years. All prices are assumed to be end of year. 2014 and 2015 are actual historical values from the Brickpicker Price Guide. As you can imagine, 6243 has been impacted by the release of 70413 as buyers have the option to pay retail for a set that is significantly larger than the $200 counterpart. 70413 – Projected Performance Given this information, we can come up with an estimate of what 70413 will be worth 5 years after retirement, assuming a new ship is released at some point in the fourth year. The growth of this set has been adjusted downward to try and capture the change in the market environment. Even then, we could see a CAGR of over 15% by 2022 and an increase over retail of around 120%. Final Thoughts Pirate ships hold a special place in the heart of LEGO investors and collectors alike; Not only great performers over the course of the years, but great toys and display pieces. I really think that despite the changes in the LEGO investing landscape, these well done ships will continue to produce decent results in the long run. *This is NOT investment advice. It is just my personal opinion about the set’s potential based on historical information and a set of assumptions. As with anything, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please do your own research before making a decision. View full blog article

Finally picked up a Sandcrawler last night with a bunch of VIP's and GBH. Got the cost below $200.

Went on a tour of BN in 2 states bought up all the UN with the 30% off coupon 10% membership and $50 rolling GCs came out to $23 each.

A few things over the past 24 hours... To much to list but tis the season!!

I think TLG know as well as anyone else that this year's demand was only there because of investors predicting eol. I would be shocked if this level of sales are sustained post Christmas if it survives the retirement period. Add to that the fact that there are 2 new modulars coming up of which the FH is MASSIVE. This one is definitely going this year. But don't expect much returns on investment for a few years.

I am sure the bosses of Galeria-Kaufhof will be wondering about that soon too!

If hydra smash stays sold out, quicksilver exclusive to that set I'm pretty sure. Short life if you want all the avengers from second movie

I'm at a big grown up party right now and just shot a Jack & Coke out my nose. Thanks for that.

Haven't posted in a while, and was running out of things to build. Went on a building frenzy and built all this in the past week! Can't seem to load the other pics. Other sets built are Eiffel Tower, Space Needle, Vader, Grievous, Obi-Wan figures, finally the Gingerbread house.

I love your bickering, you're like a married couple

Offcourse Mr. Black Bounty.

Not until Tuesday 12/1 15% off

Got my five yesterday, and they're all sold already at $24 each (includes shipping).

And about a year of shelf life...

3 x AT-AT from Meijer for $67 ea.

I see this one doing really well. But watch your buy-in people. As always... as low as can be.

That was asking for a pancake. Anything packed with the DS will get crushed. It isn't the Death Star for nothing.

x2 $40 GBH x3 $24 Target Minifgure Cube x1 $65 Ninjago Golden Dragon x1 $60 Coast Guard Plane x1 $12 Springtime Scene All on eBay, all shipped

Valid. Dcd is on the ball. And clearly agrees with me. But who else? This set pops up on the forum discussion about as often as a south African meerkat pops up on the frozen tundra.

I've had it for over a year.

QFLLer. Very disappointed

Is it facing south by any chance?

Got my SOH from AWD in the mail. Was described as "very good" but was still factory sealed with what I'd call minor creasing and denting. Not bad at all for $260 with 10% back.

36 RE

I always like to keep the freebies boxed away for a few years and bury them. This year I stumbled upon 100 of 40082 that I got when buying 10229 at the end of Oct 2013 from LEGO Shop at Home. Sold all of them for $60 on amazon and netted $50 each. 10229 did pretty well too

Exactly what i thought but if it works he's my hero of the year so far

Nah, in germany the law says that if you have an offer in printed advertisement, you actually have to have stock in your shops present. If not it is against the law. But of course they violate the rules...and noone really cares

It wasn't me.

Well, I'll give you first-hand report. I have had some Ultra Agents and The Lego Movie figures listed on BL for a while, then I listed them on ebay 5 days ago (3-days bidding) and by yesterday I sold around 20+ of them for or above the asked price on BL

Let's talk about this theme, because I think you are 100% correct about it being a "theme." The set that I think is flying way under the radar right now is the Fairground Mixer. By itself, there is pretty much nothing to get excited about - it looks like a glorified City set that should be $89.99 at TRU and garner very little attention even at that price. But what it actually represents is the "missing link" to the whole Summer Carnival theme in about 5 years. Nobody is buying it, nobody is hoarding it, and it might simply vanish in the middle of the night in a poof of smoke. Then, as TLG continues to develop this theme and more and more collectors need to have the entire collection, it becomes the sought after piece that nobody has. Optimistic? Maybe. But plausible? Absolutely.

Looks pretty promising Sequel on the way on 2018 and I'm sure that Ant Man will show up in a few other MCU titles

Sorry about that. I did and was able to use it in two transactions no problem.

LEGO Shop at Home shipped a GH for an order in which everything else was cancelled. Nice of them.

The front view of that building looks like a one finger salute.

Jabba Rancor combo $240 shipped ebay (w/ $10 final value fee promo)

last 2 xmas trains, $50 something on Amazon, pocketed $43 I think after fees, shipping. Basically 43% off my $100 orders on Shop @ Home

And only half of those are Christmas Trees.

I think you might kick yourself on this one. It was dump exos and hold on dinosaurs.... Mind you, the guy that seems to have a 40ft container full of them and is selling them at 70 euros obviously thinks the same as you. Either that or their calendar is on the wrong month and they think Xmas has passed.

Got at the Lego store at 6 this morning and got 10 sets and 5 Gingerbread Houses. I no these sets have a long way to go, but since I have all of the Exclusives that been out for a long time, its time for me to start getting the newer stuff, and I was surprised when they let me buy all this stuff at the one Lego store, there were alot of other guys buying alot of sets, as for the AT AT they only had a few and since I have plenty I really didn't care. As for the 10 sets I paid $190 each as I used alot of VIP Points. Ed

thats true for me as well. Just sell them as fast as you can or wait for 2 years to get the same price. Maybe they will appriciate more after but thats not worth the wait.

London is ranked number one top city for tourism and spending 5 times out of the last seven years (link) Saying that Germany has a bigger market than the UK based on population(?) doesn't give a true indication of what is popular, sells or being most iconic. While I agree that there are many world landmarks that would make great Architecture\Expert Creator sets disregarding Big Ben because it doesn't appeal to you doesn't necessarily reflect on public perception. Big Ben 21013 has been in production for 3.5 years now which would suggest that it moves numbers, same can be said for 21006 White House which has been going for close to 5 years. Parliament buildings like these are iconic the world over and make logical sense for Lego sets. "Big ben is just simple tower with clocks" Simple isn't a word I would use to explain the intricacies and detail of the Houses of Parliament

Put this guy together today - super fun build & learned some new techniques with building the dome too....

So... Temple of Airjitsu... Got one with the recent deal with that free Serpent thingie set. This set is blimmin' GORGEOUS. The details, the building techniques... this deserves to be more popular than the modular buildings, all other things equal. Love the use of the speargun used as a desk lamp support, the upside-down garage jointed panels for the roofs of the buildings, the way the small curved staircases are build by simultaneously facing three directions. And the end result is breath taking. I don't even care about the minifigs (I'll probably sell them off). Just gorgeous.

I know this is off topic but Big Ben with power function clock tower that keeps semi-accurate time, now that would be epic!!