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First time we've ever hit 100 orders in 24 hours. I'll try to grab a picture Monday before the mail pickup.

Who is this nobody you speak of...?

I love the Sea Cow more with each passing day...

Welcome to the first entry of what I would like to think of as a revamped Evaluation Corner article. The idea behind this new format is to offer a little more historical and analytical data when evaluating sets for potential investment, in a more visual way. Hopefully you will like it; be sure to add your feedback or comments! Historical & Theme Analysis The topic of this first article will be the recently released The Brick Bounty – 70413. The “Pirates” LEGO theme has become one of those recurring ones we expect to pop up in stores every few years. It really needs no explanation; kids love pirates and AFOLs really appreciate a well- designed LEGO ship. So, how has the Pirates theme performed over the course of the years when compared to some of the other “evergreen” lines? As you can see, the theme sits slightly below the average LEGO theme CAGR of 11.55%, seemingly indicating the performance of its sets has not been quite as stellar. However, it is important to mention that all of the themes showcased above have been around for a long, long time. The aggregate CAGR number is somewhat skewed negatively as time goes by and the return gets spread out over a larger period of time and more sets are added to the sample. Of course, these only highlights the performance of the theme as a whole, and while that is good information to have, we should focus our attention in the performance of pirate ships. The graph below includes all the pirate ships in the theme with over 500 pieces, excluding the Imperial Flagship. It is pretty clear that while the overall theme CAGR is not that impressive, the return on investment for these ships is the complete opposite. All of them have increased AT LEAST 100% in value, with the most recent example of 6243 Brickbeard’s Bounty. Set Analysis Realistically, I believe that 6243 is the one set that will provide more insights into the potential performance of 70413 The Brick Bounty, as the sets themselves are extremely similar. The rest of the sets in the list are either Pre-2000, or re-releases of previous versions. It is encouraging to see that LEGO decided to go with a significantly higher piece count for this newest pirate ship release. While not on the same level as the retired Pirates of the Caribbean sets, I do think that the design of the set is very appealing and the set reviews on LEGO Shop at Home seem to suggest buyers think the same. I do want to note that some people feel the “interior” of the set could have used a little more detail. Besides that, the set includes 7 standard Pirates minifigures, none of which strike me as special enough to increase the value of the set once retired. It would be nice if LEGO found a way to innovate/change the minifigures in this line; they are just too similar to previous versions. Since this set has practically just been released, it is pretty normal not to read too many comments about it in the forums. I think there will be plenty of time to acquire this set at decent discounts, and the initial price point of $99.99 already makes it appealing for the less “serious” LEGO investor. Future Performance I figured I would include some sort of forecast of where I think sets will go in the future in my articles, based on basic regression analysis and just plain trending. If nothing else, it can give some people a very high level idea of potential future performance. In this particular case, the sample is way too small to run any kind of significant regression as, in reality, there is only one set that I see as comparable to The Brick Bounty (Brickbeard’s Bounty). Still, I do believe the path of 70413 can sort of follow that of 6243, so we can still make a high level prediction of long term value. 6243 – Performance One thing to note about this graph: the points in blue are estimated, as we have no actual data points that far in the past. I estimated them based on the usual assumption that retired sets grow a lot faster over the first 2 years of retirement, and then plateau at around 4 or 5 years. All prices are assumed to be end of year. 2014 and 2015 are actual historical values from the Brickpicker Price Guide. As you can imagine, 6243 has been impacted by the release of 70413 as buyers have the option to pay retail for a set that is significantly larger than the $200 counterpart. 70413 – Projected Performance Given this information, we can come up with an estimate of what 70413 will be worth 5 years after retirement, assuming a new ship is released at some point in the fourth year. The growth of this set has been adjusted downward to try and capture the change in the market environment. Even then, we could see a CAGR of over 15% by 2022 and an increase over retail of around 120%. Final Thoughts Pirate ships hold a special place in the heart of LEGO investors and collectors alike; Not only great performers over the course of the years, but great toys and display pieces. I really think that despite the changes in the LEGO investing landscape, these well done ships will continue to produce decent results in the long run. *This is NOT investment advice. It is just my personal opinion about the set’s potential based on historical information and a set of assumptions. As with anything, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please do your own research before making a decision. View full blog article

Finally picked up a Sandcrawler last night with a bunch of VIP's and GBH. Got the cost below $200.

Went on a tour of BN in 2 states bought up all the UN with the 30% off coupon 10% membership and $50 rolling GCs came out to $23 each.

A few things over the past 24 hours... To much to list but tis the season!!

I think TLG know as well as anyone else that this year's demand was only there because of investors predicting eol. I would be shocked if this level of sales are sustained post Christmas if it survives the retirement period. Add to that the fact that there are 2 new modulars coming up of which the FH is MASSIVE. This one is definitely going this year. But don't expect much returns on investment for a few years.

I am sure the bosses of Galeria-Kaufhof will be wondering about that soon too!

If hydra smash stays sold out, quicksilver exclusive to that set I'm pretty sure. Short life if you want all the avengers from second movie

I'm at a big grown up party right now and just shot a Jack & Coke out my nose. Thanks for that.

Haven't posted in a while, and was running out of things to build. Went on a building frenzy and built all this in the past week! Can't seem to load the other pics. Other sets built are Eiffel Tower, Space Needle, Vader, Grievous, Obi-Wan figures, finally the Gingerbread house.

I love your bickering, you're like a married couple

Offcourse Mr. Black Bounty.

Not until Tuesday 12/1 15% off

Got my five yesterday, and they're all sold already at $24 each (includes shipping).

And about a year of shelf life...

3 x AT-AT from Meijer for $67 ea.

I see this one doing really well. But watch your buy-in people. As always... as low as can be.

That was asking for a pancake. Anything packed with the DS will get crushed. It isn't the Death Star for nothing.

x2 $40 GBH x3 $24 Target Minifgure Cube x1 $65 Ninjago Golden Dragon x1 $60 Coast Guard Plane x1 $12 Springtime Scene All on eBay, all shipped

Valid. Dcd is on the ball. And clearly agrees with me. But who else? This set pops up on the forum discussion about as often as a south African meerkat pops up on the frozen tundra.

I've had it for over a year.

QFLLer. Very disappointed

Is it facing south by any chance?

Got my SOH from AWD in the mail. Was described as "very good" but was still factory sealed with what I'd call minor creasing and denting. Not bad at all for $260 with 10% back.

36 RE

I always like to keep the freebies boxed away for a few years and bury them. This year I stumbled upon 100 of 40082 that I got when buying 10229 at the end of Oct 2013 from LEGO Shop at Home. Sold all of them for $60 on amazon and netted $50 each. 10229 did pretty well too

A resurrection of a resurrection .... I just finished Bricklinking a 10173 Holiday Train. Had my eyes on one for too long but didn't want to fork out $400+ for a used one on eBay .... and in the process got so familiar with the signs of an original vs a bricklinked 10173 that I realized most sub-$500 10173's are bricklinked :). With a few pieces I already had I thought I could get it done for under $200 shipping included .... even bought some 1/8" red car striping to turn 2 of my white train baseplates into red ones (the expensive pieces are those 2 red baseplates ($20 a piece) and the lady minifig ($15-$20)) - until I discovered that my train baseplates were 6x24 and the red baseplates used in 10173 are 6x28. At that point I decided I was going for the real deal, forked out for the right baseplates, all the minifigs etc. Currently 99% correct pieces - only white windows with hollow studs (original had solid ones) but nobody sees this, and new 1-piece magnetic couplings instead of the older 3-piece ones (except for the engine-tender connection, where the additional stud on the new couplings warps the build). 22 different orders and $250 spent including shipping, but she's a beauty. Will post pictures later. ... then I decided to motorize, added 2 more custom built cars to do so, and spent another $150 Don't tell my wife .... She loves the train though.

If they don't sell it at TRU for the next 3 years.

really nice evaluation, i loveee this new version !

Hi everyone, I'm Philip, 41, living in Ohio (but originally European, Dutch to be precise ) I recently joined BrickPicker - absolutely loved LEGO as a child in the late 70s - early 80s, but entered my Dark Ages at the age of 15 and only came out into the light again 3-4 years ago when my kids got old enough to get LEGO sets. Have been feeding my LEGO collection needs through my kids, who have a sizable amount of bricks - sorted into bins by me :). My wife didn't see the appeal of LEGO for adults for a while, but started swinging the right direction after seeing a few LEGO displays at local shows (she now wants us to build a small town for the train to run through, and is absolutely supportive of getting a Christmas Village around the tree - so I bricklinked a 10173 - Holiday Train (still cost me >$200 with all the shipping fees) and managed to pick up a Winter Village Fair after retirement for MSRP, plus Toy Store and Santa's Workshop via LEGO LEGO Shop at Home. She also heard my stories about LEGO sets appreciating in value and is definitely supportive of me joining that game. Last year was my real "coming out" - got the LEGO Trains bug, participated in the RailBricks contest and en-passant discovered BrickLink and the secondary LEGO market. Managed to get a few 10233s for personal use, and collected a number of My Own Train cars (10016 etc.) as a personal stash of trains. Got a good deal on a just-retired Maersk train as well. Anyways, I have recently started an after school technology program for kids as my full-time occupation (let's see how long that lasts ) and use LEGO in that program (Technic and Mindstorms for now), but want to generate a second source of income. As such, I decided to get into LEGO reselling, but given my love for organizing LEGO, I decided to focus on the parting-out business. This holiday period really got me going and I now have ~$1k in sets stored, with the intent to part them all out and sell for parts (BL says total part value of the sets I have is ~$4k minifigs included). Hope to make 100-200% ROI in the coming 12 months. I consider this first investment as a test. My investment has all been done using the (75% * Part-out-value) > ( 2 * Purchase cost) calculation. I obtained a few 10697 towers, 40158 Pirates Chess Sets, 75053 SW Ghost, 60036 Arctic Base Camp and 75046 SW Coruscant Police Gunship sets, all at 20-50% discount from MRSP. I also have 6 GHs across various LEGO.com/LEGO Store purchases. My questions to you all, knowing my "parts store on BrickLink intention": 1. Should I part out all sets at once, or keep some (the nicest boxes) stored for a little while to see if I might have a hit in the post-retirement market? Or perhaps to keep my store stocked? I'm leaning towards parting it all out (22k pieces, 250 minifigs). 2. With regards to the Gingerbread Houses, assuming LEGO didn't mass-produce them and has them in stock until late-Dec, would it be worth parting out? Bricklink doesn't have an inventory yet and I have not cracked one open either (my kids will open one on Dec 6th (Dutch Sinterklaas)) after which I will be able to manually add the inventory. There are some nice and relatively rare bricks in those boxes (e.g. 1x4 brick-pattern bricks), but getting a quick $25-$35 for the sealed box is quite tempting and I don't want to miss the QFLL boat. If I were to sell these as sets I would list them on eBay, not BL. Or what about a split strategy? Part out 3, sell 3, any good? Of course, your opinion on my set selection is really very much appreciated as well - did I pick right?

Mostly $10-$25 items. Lots of stocking stuffer-type items. If anyone wants anything for your kids, PM me for a coupon. Everything is priced cheaper on my site than on Amazon.

Tonight I built a 10216 Winter Bakery which I acquired in a bulk lot that I purchased a couple of months ago. I had to Bricklink a few missing pieces and they arrived this morning. What a great little set. I love how the light brick lights up the goods on display in the front window. Tomorrow I'll get it photographed and put up for sale.

Sounds like some magical wizardry!

This set flashed to "Call To Check Availability" at SAH EU last night, it's back to "Available Now" again. I think this could disappear at any time.

that was SQFLL. these are heavy sets almost 6lbs-7lbs. even with FBA shipping (inbound/outbound no consolation) regular shipping comes out the almost $6,97 to $24,43 based on distance. these kind of items are good for folks in middle of the country they can pretty much ship at the same price both direction with regard to 10682 its the canadian supply that's keeping the price down.

You could always put a few things away and bring them out later for a special family night or something to spread it out a little. I always have gifts socked away and sometimes I'll just randomly pull one out to make any day a special day. Kids tend to get so much stuff from relatives and parents that is it seriously overwhelming. I had not had an opportunity to give my niece her birthday gift until a few months after her birthday and she loved it because she was not expecting it and it was the only gift she got that day.

Starting 12/6

so snow dolphins???

OK, I feel like a total n00b posting in this thread, but I sold my first set! Actually, second, 7672 Rogue Shadow was the first in 2011 but that was more spontaneous, I found two on clearance 25% off 2 years after retirement and sold one, CL style, the following day for almost double RRP. But I considered it a lucky one off, little did I know about the business or Brickpicker back in the day. But now, something as planned investment: 75021 Republic Gunship for 130€ excl. shipping. Buy-in was 69€.

EOL season is heating up @ US LEGO Shop at Home -> 76040 Braniac Attack - SOLD OUT 76013 Batman Joker Steam Roller SOLD OUT - finally some DC action. Forest and Furry Animals SOLD OUT 76018 Hulk Lab Smash SOLD OUT 76041 Hydra Fortress Smash SOLD OUT 75081 T-16 Skyhopper SOLD OUT Surprised about Brainiac Attack and T16 Skyhopper. have zero of these.

Modular Flower Shop by Mestari

I don`t see the problem with another London Landmark. There have been five sets from five different countries. So they were bound to go to one of those countries again in time. London is the premier city of the world and is a very popular tourist destination. Tower Bridge has sold well for it to continue for 5 years. London has many landmarks so it is natural to come back to it again. I agree it would be good if they did a new set every 2 years as they are amongst my most popular sets.

Picked a few up for 56 euros a piece today, rrp 125. Let´s hope there is demand.

You clearly missed the part where they use the laundromat to launder money. I guess it's pretty successful