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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/07/2015 in all areas

  1. I'm sorry, but this makes no sense. Given overall inflation in lego UCS pricing, a 'bigger' DS (say, 5000 pieces) would retail for at least $600. Lego has never made a set that expensive, and they have never followed one large SW exclusive with another the very next year. Never mind that, with regard to investment potential, the new one would presumably be based on a totally different film and feature none of the iconic scenes that have made 10188 such a classic. But the bigger issue is the ludicrousness of this rumor (for the pricing and timing reasons just given). As an anonymous internet guy just like everyone else, I'll wager all my anonymous internet credibility on any 'new DS' being far smaller, probably totally open like the old Cloud City, and featuring few of the Episode IV characters (and none of the scenes, obviously). I've had my doubts about Brick Show predictions, but those guys are at least risking a reputation that's bound up with their business (youtube revenue from video views and subscribers, for example). Plus I can see their faces and know their names. Why should I trust someone who is nothing but an internet screen name and has nothing to lose by being wrong? Do we seriously think the Lego corporation 'leaks' information this way? We're talking about the largest toy company in the world, not Paris Hilton. I think folks are taking this stuff way too seriously. Edit: I just watched J2G's youtube video, which gives us precisely this info: there's a new DS coming in 2016! And that's it. The video is just text. And it makes the odd claim that if 10188 retires this year, then we'll know he's right about the new one coming out next year. Really, these are two entirely different predictions. Brick Show made the retirement prediction (for this year) in a youtube video last year. So that's not exactly news. And if Lego wanted to designate an official leaker, wouldn't they pick someone like that, established in the community, and with whom they already have an official relationship (sending Brick Show review copies of new sets, for example)? It amazes me that the internet is all abuzz over the unsubstantiated prediction of one anonymous person.
    6 points
  2. I fully expect a new Death Star next year, but I would be surprised if it's as large as or bigger than 10188. As for the Buy Now Near EOL vs. Buy Mid-life at a discount, I'm attaching some CAGR food for digestion. I modeled it after the SSD, which is not a perfect comparison but should be relatively close (shorter life, lower supply, but also lower demand). Anyway, if you buy 10188 now at MSRP, your CAGR if you sell in 1 year should be close to that if you bought at $280 a few years ago. Personally? I have some, but not a ton. I will probably buy a few more here or there, but agree money is probably better spent elsewhere.
    5 points
  3. Hey y'all, I'll just adress some concerns. I do not plan on investing on any Death Star sets. Here's the the thing- I do not resell, or invest on LEGO. I'm just a collector. I joined this site many years ago to use the main site's function. I know majority of you are investors, which is okay. I just started postin here as a friend told me I was being name dropped over here. The person who told me this info is someone close to LEGO. That's all I can say, and he's been right many times before. I have no gain from telling people this information as far as I can see. It's for you all to make up your minds- however, I'm not sure you should invest as the distance between when this old one retires and this new one comes out will most likely be very short, and the new one will be the 2008 one but better (as far as I heard). It's okay to be skeptical, but keep in mind my rumors just like this have been right many times before. If you want, I can link to those times. I'm on mobile right now, so it will be later in the day. I'll be honest- I'm iffy about this rumor he told me about the Death Star, or at least I was at first, but I remember how many times this man has been accurate and resourceful before. I personally have no connections with LEGO, I'm just an average guy who knows some people who do. Cheers, feel free to ask any questions.
    5 points
  4. It appears just2good has earned a solid reputation on Eurobricks. A simple search will show this. It iwas nice if him to post on brickpicker. He shared 2 predictions. Actually, he was responding to posts here about content he posted on Eurobricks. One of the posts were mine. Now it's time to move on. If he's right awesome. If not, it's another reason to be wary of rumors. If you don't agree, that is fine. Just ignore the content in question or report it to the mods. please remember to show respect to everyone.
    4 points
  5. ​There's a new Death Star next year. Also, we're getting LEGO Disney Collectible Minifigures next year, most likely as the May release.
    4 points
  6. Here's my take on a Quick DS remake. Simple, If you were a Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever......Would you be pissed if you just got the DS for $400 plus tax OR in the secondary market for much more and then Bam.......they come up with another DS at around $350-$450. I would be pissed as ****. Im pissed Thinking about it!
    3 points
  7. TRUTH 2 x 75055 - Imperial Star Destroyer --> $139.99 - 20% - 10% + tax - $20 (Babies R' Us discounted gift card) = $86.84 each - 8% rewards 2 x 75021 - Republic Gunship --> $129.98 - 20% - 10% + tax - $20 (Babies R' Us discounted gift card) = $79.20 each - 8% rewards 1 x 75060 - Slave 1 (online purchase) --> $199.99 - $70 rewards + tax - 10% discounted gift card = $125.18 - 8% rewards
    3 points
  8. ​asharerin I meant to say thanks for your post last night. they are level headed and make good sense. For example what are the chances of a follow up Ewok Village right after this one retires? Probably not much... Of course to me the Death Star is epic which is why they have kept it alive so long for sales rate etc but if they really had a remake that was equal or better I would not want many of the current one. Does one coming out next year before rogue one make sense? Absolutely. Just based on that teaser alone. Did the Brick Show say the current one is retired 1Q16? Yes Do I have two other sources I trust that say it is going? Yes but they are all sources and not fact. If they do not have a remake or it is half the size I would want many of the current one. I personally believe, and we all can believe what we want that the Death Star will not be like the Grand Emporium or even the timing of the Town Hall that it keeps spurting out here and there after supply is mostly used up but I believe it will take an extremely quick exit in the US when the music stops. When and if the music ever stops is the question. Hence the valid concern an investor could have that they are compelled to have few and to have many at the same time. Whether J2G information is accurate or not each person has a choice to make. I want more and I want fewer at the same time. What would it do if we were told that the UCS R2 D2 assuming it was still in production was going to be retired and 6 months later a bigger better cooler version with more features that blows the current one away in every regard would be released. I would want less. When R2 was going I wanted more and have a good amount, not great, not small. We know everything is subject to replacements but normally it takes a few years. However things are not normal any more. When was the last time we had a Star Wars movie every year? Well umm never. So we are in a new normal and we do not know what it is. At the moment I am choosing to sit tight at 10 and not increase and not lower though different aspects of me want to do both. I personally believe though the poll here is not scientific by any means and most large investors do not report anything that 10188 many people have one in the closet. Most do not have 50 in the closet like emazers. Time will tell and I am appreciative of J2G and his information. We each have our own decision to make.
    3 points
  9. ​Can you please stop talking sense, it's way too boring. We need another 20 pages of posts arguing about the validity of these rumours
    3 points
  10. So how do I open a case for item not matching the photo? ;-) http://www.brickclassifieds.com/products/star-wars-mtt-4491-multi-troop-transport
    3 points
  11. If the rumored dates are close to what transpires, then I think we're looking at a situation similar to the 7965 MF. Disappeared late 2014/early 2015 and is getting remade later 2015, and that set has still done pretty well. That being said, I'm not sure I'd want to drop $400 per if I thought I had a limited selling window, I'd probably target cheaper alternatives.
    2 points
  12. Is it too late to proclaim that "this thread is about to get very busy"?
    2 points
  13. Well since my name has come up a few times on the DS, for those that remember over 2 years ago I posted that a new X-wing $200 and Large Evok Village was coming as I was shown pictures of these by a Lego East coast manager that travels to different stores on the east coast, and he was right . Now in March with the Double VIP points I seen him at the Lego store in Delaware, so this was before the new rumor started in April about a new Death Star, and the first thing I asked him was the DS 10188 Retiring he said yes, "and there is a new Death Star coming in 2016 or so, he said he hasn't seen it or has no idea on how big or a price." So if its true or not I don't really care right now as I have 56 of them, but in my case I got most for $262 from Barnes and Noble, to $300 from Amazon, and whenToys R US had the buy 2 get 1 free say 3 yrs ago and beyond Exclusives were included, so that averaged out to about $285 each or so. Now do I want a $400 or more New DS, Not Really but I am pretty sure the 10188 will still do very well as with 4 Movies coming and Millions and Millions of new Star Wars Lego fans coming people will still want it. So anybody thats still does not have any I think you are making a Huge mistake that you will regret like not buying more SSD, Etc. I am sure many of you are still kicking your self for not getting alot of exclusives in the last year. Even I regret not having 75 SSD instead of 46, or 100 HH instead of 65. Etc. Ed
    2 points
  14. ​More like report it... that listing has fake written all over it. Stock photos, 100% plagarized description, new user account from March. Report, don't bid.
    2 points
  15. At the end of the day all we can do is compile all of the information we have available (and some have better information than others) and run the numbers. The last situation I want to be in is carrying big numbers of 10188 all outside of a return window and have photos of the new set leaked and being blown away. I will roll the dice some more in 1Q 2016 if no new info comes to light and go from there. No point in trying to make hero calls in this game, just go by the numbers and use timing to your advantage. If 10188 is sold out by then and the new rumor falls flat then good luck to those who could afford more risk than me and they should be rewarded.
    2 points
  16. ​LEGO doesn't gain anything by having a set retired that can only be acquired in the secondary market. They don't gain a single penny. It would make more sense if they did release a larger version in some capacity. And you have to take into consideration about people in the dark ages. Why would you think that LEGO wants to punish these people who outgrew Lego for many years, only to come back and not have an opportunity to buy a set at retail. That's pretty vindictive if you ask me, if you believe that Lego purposely does this. I was in my dark ages from 2003-2013. 10 years seems to be a fairly normal amount of time to be in the dark ages. I've missed out on a lot of great sets from then. I think it's great that Lego appears to start this trend of remaking/re-releasing UCS sets. I hope they continue this trend honestly. I know you investors hate it, but I think it's great for people like me, who've missed out on a set to get a chance to get a similar version for retail without having to pay sometimes exorbitant secondary prices. Granted I think this works only if they keep a decent enough time span in between UCS sets like the X-wing.
    2 points
  17. ​I can vouch for J2G. His info is always solid and he has been contributing this solid info for a long time now. Yes we all thought it may be an april fools joke in the beginning given the timing of the leak but he has since confirmed on multiple channels it was not. I would also not jump to the conclusion the new DS is a tie in for Rogue Squadron. A new updated 10188 released on May 4th 2016 sounds plausible to me. That $399 retail slot has been around since June 2008. Back then we were all blown away by the set and the price tag. No better time for that to happen again than in early 2016 and while it all sounds just too good when investing in 10188 I would account for a significant chance it will be an inferior model very quickly. TLG is not shy about rehashing SW sets and I presume Disney also has input on what gets made now. I would not price in a 100% chance of 10188 being obsolete quickly but given the new information it would be smart to price in a significant percentage chance of this happening. What that does to your valuations and your target numbers is up to you but I am going light on this set and heavy on others where no remakes are rumored.
    2 points
  18. All I know is after reading the last 5 years worth of posts on this thread is I am not listening to anyone's rumors or speculation on it. Cause this thread is nothing but years and years and years of people being wrong. Period.
    2 points
  19. Since so many threads seem to have turned into negative bickering and complaints - I thought I might remind people that complaints have their own thread.
    2 points
  20. Lots of interesting points here but I'll just add this: If there's one set that defies the normal "rules" it's the 7 year old 10188. And as for the possibility of it being immediately replaced, where there's smoke there's probably fire. After all, it's not really a true collector's set like the UCS models, it's an expensive dollhouse for kids with wealthy parents. As others have mentioned, it's in some ways the City Police Station of the Star Wars lineup. One suggestion that people keep making that I think is probably wrong is that a new Death Star would be a model of one that appears in Episode 7. I can't see them releasing a $400+ set based on a new Star Wars movie. It's a huge gamble if the films are universally panned like the prequels. The vast majority of large Star Wars sets have been from the original trilogy because those films have the widest appeal. Even if Episode 7 is good, the original trilogy will still have more fans based on nostalgia alone. In any case, it looks like there will finally be some action on this set this year, one way or another. I'll probably just watch it from the sidelines, personally.
    2 points
  21. well as long as we're talking about Donald Duck _AND_ GOofy in the DS thread, I feel compelled to Brick Roll it with this...
    2 points
  22. The popularity of LEGO SW kept them relevant through those time. Removing all other ventures (theme parks, video games, etc) and getting back to their core competency (bricks) saved the company from going bankrupt.
    2 points
  23. Most probably ​Lego dislikes QFLL's. I even think Lego themselves invented this abbreviation. I think they have nothing against investors who keep Lego sets in their closets for X years after retirement and sell them for some profit. Cause that keeps their brand exclusive and chique.
    1 point
  24. That is also an advantage if your the only person selling it as new, and you have the ability to make a good amount of money by selling this set.
    1 point
  25. Regarding the argument that Lego needs resellers because without us, their products would be worthless in the aftermarket, that's a load of bunk. If anything, we hurt resale value because we have inventory when other outlets have run out. Without resellers, used Lego set prices would skyrocket because people would be clamoring to buy whatever used, mint sets were available on the aftermarket through ebay, etc. The question really should be, does Lego need us to keep the resale market in check? In reality, market forces have created an army of resellers to meet the needs of the customer. I definitely think that lego wants to stop the opposite effect which is resellers buying up all of the inventory and creating artificial shortages and turning off the regular customer. What is known as the amiibo effect. Lego wants the most normals as possible, buying their products and maximizing their revenue.
    1 point
  26. I could imagine another DS2 style display set. It's been long enough since the last one. Boring? Yep. But I find 10221 boring to look at as well, and it's done just fine pricewise. Folks love their monocolor gray sculptures. The best part of this whole debate from a self-interested standpoint is all the investors who are deciding against stocking up on 10188 as a result. I wish we could have some rumors start floating around about a new and bigger pet shop due out in '16 as well...
    1 point
  27. Time preference is key. Mine is quite low, so I can sit on sets forever if I want.... But I sure do understand the compound effect the quick flippers get from rolling small profits over and over again in a single year time frame. Its clever and I can respect it, but its also a lot of work too, more than sitting on a couple shelves of fine Lego sets and just letting it age... I'm thinking the real, real smart dudes are those that do both. Know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Hold sets that show relentless after retirement price appreciation and fold on the turds that just can't get it up. I got a good mix of both, the turds are going to get firesaled here real quick, helping me build up good feedback in time for the xmas season where I just might start getting rid of some of the higher end stuff that can't get much higher.
    1 point
  28. ​I don't think Lego cares at all about the investor market. They may even revile it. When these hoarded sets go on sale in the secondary market they then compete with the primary market. The fact that there is a secondary market at all shows that Lego production does not meet demand. If the investor market dried up Lego would still sell all of their production. They would just sell it to people that were buying it to use it.
    1 point
  29. All I have to say is: "No Risk, No Return"
    1 point
  30. ​I would offer a partial refund close to the cost of shipping it back. Normally on an item $10 or less I try to work things out before sending it back.
    1 point
  31. It's still really hard to believe these rumors about a new bigger/better death star. In what way? The current 10188 defies current price/piece trends. over 3600 for $400. No way a new set is going to have either more pieces for the same price with as many minifigs. It would easily be a $500 set. They are making more expensive sets with less pieces more so now. I just don't know what to make of the rumor honestly. If they updated the set with new box art, minifigs and the like, I can see that as a more plausible scenario. It doesn't really matter much to me honestly, because I don't invest, I just collect, so it's not like I'm losing any money. But nothing about this (IMO) passes the sniff test for me. PS, It also seems unlikely, because with the exception of the DS, they have been pretty reluctant to release a $400 set since the SSD. The closest they have been has been the UCS helicarrier. If this set retires, I wouldn't even be surprised to never see another $400+ set again.
    1 point
  32. ​Yes, I realized that after the fact. I just corrected it. Sorry, Iowa Hawks Guy...
    1 point
  33. 1 point
  34. >jaisonline: >Thanks for the info as it's much appreciated. Let's hope Lego does it as it could be very cool and kinda perfect timing with the Rouge One film. ​Why on earth is everybody calling it "ROUGE One"? This is no musical adaptation, it's a Star Wars movie and it is called "ROGUE One".
    1 point
  35. Thanks for the info as it's much appreciated. Let's hope Lego does it as it could be very cool and kinda perfect timing with the Rouge One film.
    1 point
  36. ​Direct to Consumer, as it's bigger and better than the last. I dunno anything else about it
    1 point
  37. ​ Life guarantees on EOL of DS is vastly more amusing
    1 point
  38. By the way by not releasing an UCS falcon LEGO can surely achieve one thing. It's the "I did not buy it when it was being produced and now it is so expensive" argument. It's the set you can always point at when you want to sell your product. The living example for people to buy sets before they are retired. By now almost everybody and their dog knows about the giant expensive LEGO Falcon. As long as LEGO can induce the regret in people for missing these sets the firm is sitting on a gold mine. If there is a set they should keep forever retired for this reason then it is the Falcon.
    1 point
  39. ​FYI. there is a feature in eBay's Advanced Search where you can exclude listings from specified sellers.
    1 point
  40. Respectfully intended anyone who is disappointed: I find your lack of patience disturbing...
    1 point
  41. hi snot, i agree with binici. it's def a set worth holding into for at least another 6 months especially since there isn't another way to get Jabba anymore at retail (sail barge has retired). it was also discounted often during it's 2 year retail life which might explain the slower than expected (for some, not me) ROI. furthermore jabba's palace is a favorite among star wars fans (new and old) in film scenes / plot and toys. after the death star, it's prob ranked 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in terms of popularity with Cloud city and Hoth. The Cantina and Dagoboh are prob in the next tier. i'm holding into all of my NISBs Jabba Palace's and wish more were in my collection. I do have 3 loose ones though (2 sets w/o figures) to build sometime with my kids. my Jabba dream would will be building this... (update : i just purchased the instructions for $17.32 ) http://www.baronsat.net/baronshop/instructions-SW-Jabba-Palace-Support-Rancor.htm It looks awesome and integrates with your existing Jabba's Palace (9516) and Rancor Pit (75005) sets. ​ ​
    1 point
  42. I thought this latest Tie Fighter was the first UCS Tie? The other UCS was a Tie Interceptor.
    1 point
  43. Hey you don't have to try to convince me gregpj, I was among the first to call him out on April Fooling on "Disney Bricks", but he was adamant. And as I said, it's Just2good, so you can put your money on it (knowing that his "source" is most probably his boss ). I argued long and wide why this doesn't make absolutely no sense to me from commercial, pricing, branding and all other perspectives but it all falls down to whether you trust j2g with his funny videos and I must say that, yes, sadly I do, I'm an old hand on that forum and he's never been fooling around before.
    1 point
  44. Dear tall guy with the Iraq war veteran cap and beard..........I see you here at TRU trying to be all discreet smooshing CMF bags trying to get the one you want.
    1 point
  45. Hit up an estate sale today. Got a used fire brigade, hogwarts express, winter village cottage, winter toy shop, maersk eee about 500+ minifigures (ranging from series to harry potter to superheroes) and about 15+ base plates (ranging from 15x15 to 10x10 road) for $540 total.
    1 point
  46. Half of this about 200 lbs for $800
    1 point
  47. Walked into the lego store today...."do you have any palace cinemas in stock?" Employee.."oh no. Sorry, palace cinema is retired." Me..."oh really, cause i called yesterday and someone told me you will be getting some in." long story short. I asked him to check in the back low and behold guess what he walks out with. So yeah lego store employees really know very little about what is "retired" and what is not lol
    1 point
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