Both sets will be winners; I am extremely bullish on each.
But keep in mind... The Red 5 is from the SW line, which will be in the midst of an absolutely HUGE film cycle two years from now, creating epic demand for all-things SW. Middle-Earth is likely, and sadly, gone from Cinema possibly forever. The books will of course always be tremendously popular.
"A rising tide lifts all boats".
If you own a box, full of Legos, with a Star Wars logo on the box, I would count on great things coming regardless of the contents of said box. What J.J. Abrams will do with these upcoming films is going to re-ignite the franchise epically... bringing in an entirely new generation of SW fans who want all that is currently available- and all that was once available.
And that's when these sets skyrocket. I believe SW investing is the most promising avenue as a Lego Investor for the next ten years and likely beyond (along with the staple investment of Lego MOD's, of course).
A trilogy-story every other year, with a character-focused story in the years between... the Star Wars frenzy is going to be global and unprecedented.
I personally don't even like the Red 5, and couldn't care less. My future customers will, and even if they didn't it's a must-have for the TRUE Lego SW fans- of which there will be many, many, many, many millions. An entirely new generation is going to be introduced to what we've all known and loved. And they're going to love it too.
It's going to be hard to find "losing" sets in the SW line with the epic demand, popularity, and global upsurge that will be ignited this December.