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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/19/2015 in all areas
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Take off your tinfoil hats people. There's been a lot of interesting speculation here about Lego manipulating the market with Machiavellian strategies. The Town Hall is retiring because it was the slow seller of the theme and that is that. For it's entire life it sat on the shelf at $200, right next to the beautiful Grand Emporium, the fun Pet Shop, the romantic Parisian Restaurant - all of which were much cheaper, and were more emotionally attractive. Do you want to dream of having your own pet shop one day? ... or dream of having a bureaucratic job at City Hall? It was always peoples' 2nd or 3rd choice, so it didn't sell well. Mystery solved. I made a list of about 2 dozen "rare" part numbers for the TH (parts used in the TH which were unique, or shared by no more than 2 other sets). I was interested in the "eliminating rare parts" theory ... but even I don't buy it. If the Town Hall was a hot seller, it would still be available today. Eliminating a dozen or so part numbers is a small, small bonus for Lego, but in no way a deciding factor. A similar list of "rare" parts for the Detective's Office would have over 40 part numbers on it - many of which could have been substituted with more common parts... but obviously, the design team wanted "that certain shade of blue", or unique new hair on that minifigure... clearly part number proliferation is not a big concern for Lego. And resurrecting the Town Hall? That ship has sailed. Lego recognizes this "after death demand" for what it is. If they produced another batch, investors would snap them all up. If they went into full production, and continued to carry this model for another year or two, many investors would be very hesitant to buy more exclusives. They would be shooting themselves in the foot. Last year, Feb 4th, 2014 was Retirement Apocalypse Day... dozens of sets got their "Retired" tag that day, even though most had been gone for months. I expect TH will earn it's badge within the next few weeks.5 points
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4 points
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Another factor about 'collectibles' market. Demand is driven by the common knowledge that product is around for a limited time and won't come back. So people buy it because they don't want to miss the ship and pay inflated prices together with the fact they know that the product they own will hold its value. If people believe the value is persistent they are more likely to haul cash. If LEGO destroys this 'belief' sales of exclusives may drop by a not insignificant amount overall. So LEGO has to weigh the following: cashing in on a popular and desired retired set vs. keeping up the 'limited availability" belief. Since the latter most likely affects all exclusives I would vote on the latter since they can always create new awesome products that would sell just as well as resurrected ones. I might also add, just as Ed also mentioned somewhere earlier, that the current rapid growth of LEGO as a company is mainly a result of the increased perceived value of LEGO. People saw in the emerging secondary market that value is persistent over time, even increases and began to consider it differently than other toys and regard them as valuable durables rather than ordinary consumption goods therefore their propensity to throw cash increased. Since they are not run by imbeciles they know this and don't want to destroy it. The large quantity of AFOL sets is part of the strategy of keeping this up.4 points
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From a post over on The Brick Fan, just2good of Eurobricks has stated a new chess set will go along with the other Pirates sets of 2015. This should make building an army of blue coats and buccaneers rather easy, eh?3 points
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3 points
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People are over thinking this retirement. Kenxxx made a list of rare and unique parts of TH, and in that list you will see that TH shares many rare parts with recently retired sets such as GE. So a simple reason for TH retirement now is because the company has ran out of these rare pieces and it does not make business sense to make a small batch just for TH. Also TH is not exactly making an early retirement. This set has been around for more than 2 years and the quantity of the rare parts were probably planned and decided on many months back. So once the last batch of TH is produced, the retirement is baked.3 points
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First we have to look at the target customers. Buyers of exclusives probably aren't the ones who throw away LEGO, they are more aware. And you are placing too much emphasis on TH. You have to look at the information structure here. Investors monitor LEGO and are looking closely enough. What the Average Joe sees are eBay listings. They won't dig down to the source of the prices (TH retirement or whatever). He just sees that retired exclusive LEGO is expensive. He draws the conclusion that it's worth buying large LEGO and heads to the store or buys pricier sets than he wanted to initially. This strategy is not based around the single TH. If LEGO does this just often enough to hold up average secondary market exclusive prices they can manipulate Average Joe into spending. It's not the investors' perception LEGO wants to manipulate. After all they are riding on the same wave. It's the people we sell to. High secondary market prices are already in the social media and even some of my Hungarian acquaintances who are parents are buying exclusives because of that. And they did not hear this from me.3 points
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Maybe LEGO retired the Town Hall to mess with the minds of resellers. You must realize that LEGO is very aware of secondary market values. They would like to see their products viewed as valuable and collectible. Constantly re-releasing sets would hurt secondary market values, thus reducing the perceived value of new LEGO sets. If people pay big dollars for retired sets, they are more willing to pay big dollars for new sets. One hand washes the other.3 points
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Wouldn't it be cool to go 30 years in the future and buy the "official 2045 edition brickpicker's almanac" to see which sets will have appreciated the most?3 points
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At first, I was thinking Town Hall was retiring for a few reasons already stated: price point made it the slow seller of the group, too much shelf space, etc. Then I started to think about production costs, part number reduction, etc: according to Brickset, Town hall has several "rare" bricks... part numbers used only in Town Hall, or used in only a few other sets (many of which are already retired, or who's days are numbered). If they dropped the Town Hall, they could drop quite a few part numbers. Looking at part numbers shared with less than 3 other sets, I found: 6000644 shared only with Arkham Asylum 6022319 shared only with Santa3 points
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Would have been better (cooler) to have a LotR chess set. They did miss that opportunity.2 points
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Ahhh, gotcha. Oh well. Win some, lose some you are still way ahead of the game. It could be worse, could be this guy2 points
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2 points
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The Town Hall could have been "retired" for multiple reasons...Big Box...High MSRP...Slow sales...Expensive pieces...Think back a year ago, few cared at all for this set and didn't want one. A few like myself, liked the set and knew it would sell well one day when people woke from their "Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium Daze." The "Big is Best" belief in the LEGO world and that is a reason for the recent upsurge in prices. This set is somewhat unique and large in comparison to the other Modulars. It is now somewhat rare, a great combo for LEGO secondary success. If LEGO chose to make another production run of this set it would be a waste of time and hurt their future sales. That would send a major negative message to the LEGO secondary market that LEGO will reproduce a set for short term gain. LEGO and its decision makers are smart people and value the collectibility of LEGO sets. They even market it. LEGO walks a fine line of producing sets for kids, their main source of sales, and mixing some adult collector sets to appease AFOLs and the secondary market. They obviously are doing a great job from the looks of their sales. LEGO likes the secondary market, but just doesn't want to promote that fact, We help keep their product valuable in the eyes of millions of fans. A last point...think back when LEGO's sales and profits started to explode. It was about the same time eBay and Bricklink took off and LEGO reselling began to prosper and grow.2 points
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did know where to post this exactly, but i just wanted to let my bros over here know that I just picked up 3 Lego Millennium Falcon's for 67.95$ at the Disney store in my mall. Gooooooooo!2 points
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2 points
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2 points
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He's asking eBay prices on Craigslist. Also many of those sets can still be easily be found at retail, both online and in B&M stores. Errr. Buy them all that's from Pseudoty ;)2 points
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2 points
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Broken down Chevy on the front yard? Classic. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app2 points
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It's really a new niche. The closest thing to compare them to are probably the City House/Corner sets. They really have mixed results. http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=7641-1 http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=7993-1 http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=7993-1 This is the kind of MOC I need to represent my neighborhood.2 points
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Built the mixer again with the kids today. Great set, lots of figures, great build. Very much looking forward to the ferris wheel.2 points
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Analysis may have flaws but see my post... http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/87-10224-town-hall/?p=3546952 points
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I checked their feedback and they've left like 4 negatives and they only had a feedback score of (23). I think you're right, 2 other feedbacks left before me said the same thing and only the first one was negative. He must have been going in and hurrying through his feedback, although his most recent negative today was colorful. I went ahead and blocked him, since he appears to be a little sketchy.1 point
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Interesting... NetBricks people (lego rental service) bought Forrest Police 4440 (99+shipping credit) and tecnic helicopter 9396 (139.99+shipping credit) from me. Also sold for $40+shipping credit mini camper poly to some Chinese person via forwarding service. And racer 42000 for a 199 + shipping credit1 point
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:-) funny, thought maybe the endcap (next to the scanner) was the new lego aisle since it had more sets than where the Lego used to be found.1 point
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1 point
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Is it really Pseudoty? Buy only Arctic Batman then. Hxc or I can sell you the others for less LOL. Ex Astris, Scientia.1 point
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Price looks like it stabilized and turning back upwards this week.1 point
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1 point
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TH might come back for a little anyway, I am referring generally to truly retired sets. And yeah, early retirement of TH in itself doesn't change much. But I emphasised on the repeated aspect of this action. R2 fits in. And Average Joe will notice the drop in the prices and interest. For LEGO to succeed in this strategy it has to keep the secondary market healthy and alive and most importantly well performing. Why does LEGO want to limit hoarding in my opinion? Not because it doesn't want us to make profits or fears we are competition. On the contrary! It wants to see limited supply on the secondary market so prices can soar high! We are not exactly a competition because those who buy overpriced retired stuff most likely buy new releases as well. High secondary market prices are important for LEGO! It wants enough supply to be noticed and constantly on the market but little enough to keep the price high. Until now those prices were high without any action from LEGO. However LEGO figured out the workings of the market obviously and realised it has to become proactive because hoarding became excessive to endanger high prices, thus indirectly the increased perceived value. Random retirements of some exclusives here and then just might be enough to preserve this dynamic.1 point
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1 Hr. 45 Mins to sort Book 1/4 completed in 2 Hr. 25 Mins. Total 4 Hours and 10 mins. I'm tired...that's enough Lego building for one night. Overall, pretty awesome build so far. Really enjoying it. This is only the smaller (steps) side of the Opera House. Thing is gonna be massive.1 point
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This was on the main page where you can view all the items in your store. I did not like how it worked into that page, so I disabled it from there for now. It will appear again and serve a better purpose.1 point
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1 point
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1 point
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If I do create a street scene, it would have to be linear broken up by space... so it wouldn't looked cluttered... Or I can wait 8 years for the older one to graduate high school, decide college is not the way to go, join the army (or the circus), move out, and claim his room!1 point
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Alot of people aren't considering the future and even present demand from buyers in Canada, Australia, Korea, and Japan etc. I've sold some sets over the last few weeks to those countries and it's pretty easy to ship to Kentucky. The demand will be there from people just getting into Lego or buying from the US on Ebay to ship overseas and sell in their own shops over there. I know because I've sold to 3 different asian investors already.1 point
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If I do not cool down with buying lego I will be sleeping under a bridge very soon.1 point
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GE is my personal most hoarded set - i have 20 (21 counting the one i built) and after seeing the GE is the most hoarded set overall and likely purchased at msrp, it is pretty hard to see any point to buying over msrp except to build. its not like there are 10 of these selling every day - more like 1 or 2 per day on ebay and probably similar numbers on amazon with some days with no sales. so say there are somewhere like 6000 sets hoarded - just a guess for the point of discussion - if there are 4 total selling on ebay and amazon every day x 365 days a year = 1460 new ge's sold a year - so it will take 4 years for that amount to sell. most investors won't want to wait that long and will get out sooner than later which will also depress the appreciation curve. so you are going to be waiting a long time before the price gets to where you will be making anything more than like 10 or 20 dollars for your time and risk if you bought it over msrp or making accepting 10% profit. there are so many other non-hoarded $149+ sets out there that have EOL in their not to distant future that will perform better than a GE purchased well over msrp. the boat has sailed.1 point
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1 point
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1 point
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If so, then I would increase the size of grain of salt I would take portfolio numbers with. Not criticizing, just really hard to believe that there are more $150 GE stockpiled than a $20 6862 which has been talked about for a couple of years on this site. The follow up would be to know how many members on here have portfolios, and how many are regularly updated. I certainly don't have accurate figures on here for my own portfolio as I haven't updated it for quite a while.1 point
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1 point
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Grand Emporium had Green Grocer on the back... TLC did not feel obligated to continue to produce Green Grocer though1 point
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Orc- I think you are my favorite poster, and I say that very sincerely. When everyone else is rushing and bustling over EOL sets and the "big" exclusives, you continue to give extraordinary perspective and information on the entire scope of what TLG is producing. Seriously, thank you. Your posts remind me that it's nice to step back on occasion and appreciate everything Lego is doing. I enjoy making cash here... but greatly admire TLG as a company, and I think you contribute more to the board regarding the entire spectrum of what Lego is currently offering than any other poster. Thank you.1 point
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Seeing Bizarro here did make me think there may be a different minifigure version of him in some future set which would be nice. I was surprised to see Guy Gardner instead of Hal Jordan here but if it is an indication of a potential minifigure then I am all for it.1 point
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1 point
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6862 could maybe go up to 3x retail if the classic custome isn't refreshed, the other minifigs are exclusive for now,1 point
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Mega Bloks are crap. The are cheap knockoffs of Legos. Stay away.Mega Bloks are the poor mans's Lego bricks to be honest. They are similar in shape and size and will even work with Lego bricks, but their quality is awful. I like their HALO theme and some of their Need for Speed products are cool, but overall, they are not worth buying IMO.I've used the Mega Blok instructions with Lego bricks with great success when building the Halo models.1 point