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I'm the very definition of a "lurker" but I just wanted to throw something out there.... All this talk of how BP being to blame for all the new sellers out there is way off base. The number of resellers was growing long before BP got off the ground. Here's a (relatively) quick timeline for you all: In 2005, I didn't need to wake up before the sun to hit a clearance isle at Walmart - I could stroll in any time before the next weekend and basically be assured to find everything. I'm pretty certain that not even once was an isle wiped out before I got there. By 2009, it was starting to pick up a bit. Most of the Walmarts in populated areas would be wiped within a day or two of a decent clearance though the more rural ones would still linger a bit more. You would now occasional run into AFOLs in the isle as well, which was certainly strange at first! Also at this time, prices of bulk lots of Craigslist skyrocketed. For those who weren't around in the 2000s, back then you could pick up 50lbs for $100 nearly every week! And most lots were not cherrypicked by the sellers - loads of minifigs, near complete expensive sets, rare pieces were basically always included. Now $100 might get you 20lbs with no minis :/ By 2011/2012, places like Brickset and toysnbricks and whatnot were attracting people to their forums to discuss reselling and investing. Boom. Any part of the cat still lingering in the bag finally jumped out into the open. Clearance was now a crapshoot of getting lucky and hitting a Walmart before somebody else. Besides, these days most of the desirable sets don't even make it clearance. LEGO is popular enough now where most good sets sell out at full price. Honest, I don't even go hunting anymore. My closest 2 targets and that's it for me. I live in NYC (no walmarts in the city) and the tolls and gas required to hunt through Jersey for the off chance of finding something is just not worth it anymore. Now Brickpicker comes along and makes what used to require 10 minutes of research now take only 5. Honestly? So what? The market had ALREADY changed. Many people, new and experienced both, just did not see it. It's not like it is very difficult to notice that a LEGO set doubles it's price after a year. Like I said, 10 minutes on eBAy and how many of you started investing for yourselfs? It doesn't take a genius to flip LEGO guys... The "Good Old Days" sure were easy but they're long gone my friends. But that is no reason to fret. Find a way to adapt and survive or start dumping you stuff now. It most definitely will be more difficult as time goes on but I can assure you that as long as TLG is around there will be an aftermarket of some sorts for parts, minis, and sets. Whether you make any money in the changing aftermarket is entirely on you. Blaming others, deserving or not, doesn't help you move forward. Now....Back to lurking comfortably --Gary edited for typo

This :)

I can't find them on S@H??!!!! Are they EOL already????!!!!!

As a newcomer to LEGO, I'll just say that I have heard all this before - about 16 years ago, when venerable old booksellers told me that what I was doing wasn't going to work, that the book market was dying (this was before e-readers, which actually will affect the book market and are starting to, but really not all that rapidly in many areas), that their way was the only good way to do things. They believed it, too. Hell, some of them STILL argue with me to this day that I'm doing it wrong. It doesn't make their way wrong either, there is just more than one way to skin cats and sell books or LEGO. Some of the newbies they lectured did go out of business rapidly. Some of us made it. Some of the lecturers are still around, some didn't last the market changes themselves. Selling is a matter of numbers in quantifiable cost, time, effort, and knowledge. LEGO isn't different or special versus selling books or Barbies or lumber or potatoes. What makes me successful as a businessperson is understanding numbers and customer service, having excellent organizational skills, a bit of working capital, an aversion to debt and its risks, and a lamentable absence of the Fear of Failure gene. I'm quite annoying about falling down, picking myself up and dusting myself off cheerfully, and going to plans B, C, D... Some new people will fail, some will succeed. Some old people will fade away unable to change with the times, some will change and thrive. No market stays stagnant - that's a fact of business and nature. Change or die. I don't know the definition of "real money" - it honestly isn't of a lot of interest to me. I know my numbers, my projections, my goals to meet. If I get what I'm after, I'm calling it a win. Maybe I could make more buying and holding for a really long time, or day trading in the stock market, or putting it all on "black" at the first open casino, or quick flipping LEGO, or joining the circus (I mean, you don't meet talking frogs every day)... but that's not my plan. I have no new angle. I look at what the market wants, I select from those wants the things I think I can provide well. It's that simple and that hard. (Edited for hilarious typos).

Why should the LEGO secondary market be any different than running an ordinary business these days? If you ignore the LA-LA LAND known as the stock market and the disconnected vision of the world it gives some people, you will realize that small to medium businesses in the US(and I'm sure all over the world as well) are struggling to make money. I have owned a brick and mortar business for 20 years and it is more difficult than ever to grind out any profit at all, so I am not surprised by the negative attitude of some members. Many people were spoiled with insane returns early on in the eBay/LEGO reselling days. I cannot blame them for being upset. The Money Train has derailed. That being said, there is still enough potential for people to "grind" out a nice profit. The Asian market is expanding and The LEGO Group continues to show strong profits. Heck, sometimes, there is still a way to make a short term, kick butt profit flipping certain sets like the AS, Minecraft, Crawler and others. I am truly sorry that some believe this site will destroy the secondary market. While the added exposure might bring more people into the hobby/business, it will also bring added buyers as well. The added exposure will help increase brand recognition and keep the values high. More and more people will realize that LEGO bricks are valuable and they will treat them as such. What I can promise you is that Jeff and I will help any person who wants to get involved in this undertaking by offering a quality forum to ask questions and to give people some tools to help research and track investment choices. The new Daily Deals that will be released shortly will help people save money and the Brick Classifieds will help members save money selling their sets on an active marketplace by charging little(1-2%), if any fee to do so. For those who are willing to put in some work and research, the future looks promising...

I had no idea all this activity was going on in this thread. As already stated, these discussions generally involve those who have been doing this a while recognizing that things are changing while all the newer people say that everything is fine. I don't need to study any graphs or charts to know that the market is very different than it was several years ago and it's only continuing to go that way. To those who are so sure everything is fine, what are you basing that off? You're happy because you're making 1/3 less than you would have made a few years ago doing the exact same amount of work, you just don't know it. The question becomes will you be happy when you actually start to see for yourself that you're making less than when you started? Every year there are more and more people who come in and think they've got the new angle that's going to let them make their mark in the LEGO reselling world. Many will fail, but enough will succeed at least enough to continue doing it. Honestly, nobody is coming up with anything innovative here. It's all been done before. You're going to do it better than everyone else? Do you really think the people who have been doing this for years haven't already done the amazing new tactics you have? I'm not saying it's game over and there's no money to be made, but the real money is going to be in holding a really long time, but I doubt too many will be willing to hold on that long. Sure, there will be the random sets that pop up that are ripe for quick flips, but it will only get tougher.

IMO it is really kind of pointless to compare LEGO to other commodities such as beanie babies and baseball cards because LEGO is not like said commodities. With most things you buy it is one product. With a LEGO set you are buying one thing that contains100's of seperate elements each with their own value. And all of those elements will combine with other elements. Elements from 30 years ago will still work with elements today. And a rich and vibrant culture has developed around this. To the point were people can make good money just selling their custom builds. How many other products can put a claim to this. I really can't think of any. This combined with a company who have a reputation for producing a quality product and who are careful to not flood the market makes me feel very secure about having a spare bedroom full of expensive boxes of fun.

I just got the flyer Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

I keep it really organized in the LEGO room. This is just overflow that hasn't been entered in to BP yet. http://youtu.be/o74jo3UpQ1s

Sold 400 of those by selling them $.50 cheaper than you.. profit maybe slim but I do not do math... HA!!! :)

Ammunition I got into Barbies, no pun intended, back in the mid 90s when my eldest daughter started playing with them. I remember making a killing on the Teacher Barbie with no panties and buying a lot of those high end collectible, don't open the box, ones from a store in NJ called Caldor that was like a walmart but now long gone on their going out of buisness sale

And how many sellers have quit the LEGO selling game since January 2010? Raise your hands... oh, wait, you're not here so you can't.

The Lego Movie Micromanager Attack 30281 polybag has been spotted at Meijer... Hopefully it shows up at other stores as well since I am not driving 90 minutes to go to Meijer!

I am still bullish, as indicated by my wife yelling at me this morning about my Target.com charges from last month's super sale. I invest long term, so the daily gyrations of the site's members and prices don't really bother me much. I see a very consistent and steady trend to the upside, with solid gains year over year, similar to The LEGO Group's own numbers. More sellers? YES. More buyers? YES. Are they in proportion? DON'T KNOW. Can profits still be made in LEGO investing? YES...if you are smart and put in some work.

No bullying?

Relevant dot gov website: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Currency/Pages/legal-tender.aspx In particular: The linked page at the Treasury goes on to give a specific example of merchants being able to refuse pennies, dollars or large bills.

Look, this thread started off with one member asking if anyone else was experiencing a slowdown in eBay sales. Without any real data or analysis, a number of people decided this was a good reason to complain about the increase in the number of resellers. Some chose to blame this site (unfairly, and as many have pointed out, without good reason). Some have tried to blame other resellers/investors for ruining the market, without having any research to back it up. Has the market changed? Yes, obviously. Is it a reason to get out? If you're looking for one, sure, it's as good as any. Somewhere in all this we got data (thanks Jeff and Ed!) that indicates a slow down in eBay sales in March is typical. Good information! Facts! Data-driven analysis! Yay! No drama there, nothing to see here, move along thanks! Many long time sellers have taken the opportunity to share their observations and it is much appreciated. Some others have made unhelpful observations and/or assertions of a dubious nature, and then resorted to ad hominems and straw men when called out for it. This is a data driven site. Let's stick to it whenever possible. If we have to make guesses, or have opinions, that's great - but let's make sure we call a spade a spade. Is it tougher now then it was 2-5-10 years ago? Sure, because that's how markets work as they mature. If you don't like it, feel free not to participate! No one will think less of you (at least, I won't). Gripe and moan and point fingers, then I think less of you. Not that my opinion of you matters. So like I said, let's use this site to make data-driven decisions and analysis. And double entendres about polish sausage, because that's, uh, important too.

I bet you do

Even your 1/3 less is probably being conservative - Fortunately, I have been able to counteract that a bit by growing 4 times larger. Here are some examples of how things have changed: For years I was able to accurately predict my sales/income based on the number of listings I had, and their values (increase your listings 50%, increase your sales 50%). Now you need to keep growing just to keep the status quo. Up until a couple years ago you could list a partial of a rare set, and the reaction would be ridiculous. Buyers once had a desperate hunger to obtain something rare when it was listed. Why? because they weren't available that often - and when they were made available, there was a feeding frenzy, and the item would be gone - quick. There was a time that I would purchase everything on ebay that was priced too low (everything) - and if I didn't buy it, someone else would have. It kept the market valuations honest, and would just be sold later on. During the last couple years, low priced items have become so prevalent that I have needed to stop doing it (as have others). Nowadays, low priced items can just sit and go unsold - there was a time that those same items wouldn't have lasted an hour. Up until about a year ago, aside from the instances of SW re-releases, I never had to lower my prices from where my previous listing (of the same item) had been sold - that is no longer the case. That was a hard/sad one to accept, not because the money, but since to a certain degree - it was my acceptance that growth had stopped. People can say that it is still worth doing (which it is), but don't try to say that things haven't changed.

If the World economy colapses (as it should based on the evidence and sight of whats happening) the LEGO investment will collapse aswell.... Thats a fact.... Its not just about resellers vs buyers and collectors.... Its about the fact that people live worse and worse, and the money is worth less and less (inflation) 1st things to cancel in times of worldwide crisis will be commodities such as LEGO.... So best thing to invest these days is ammunition and food reproduction Mark my words

Whitefang from Eurobricks just released his review. Glad the distribution is back to 3-4-5!!!!

Me keep saying to keep buying the big exclusives all the time well I am sure many are not doing it, they would rather wait till the last minute when the word is retiring soon, and like I said from the beginning alot of the would be investers from say in the last year have started to crack, some can't wait a week,month,etc they just can't wait, as for the exclusives when Amazon,etc was still having those flash sales there were still guys on here that would not buy the sets, they wanted the sets cheaper, now with no sales alot of guys are not buying them until they get ready to retire.

My take on this is the Lego Blue Blood sellers are now running scared. They know change is upon them and yet are clinging to the old ways of the game. Lego is not my only product nor is it my main product but I have seen the same scenario play out in each product category I sell in over the last five years on ebay and amazon: higher sales numbers while at the same time lower margins. Selling more means more work but at the end of the day I know my greatest strength in this game is being able to out hustle 90% of the people playing it.

Beanie Babies. I was in on them from the beginning I went from being 1 of 3 sellers at a large flea market to 1 of 100 all in one year. You had to have the newest releases and the rarest retireds to lure customers to your table. They had exclusives, hard to find, and limited editions. Then they made better versions of their retired items and people no longer wanted the retired items. You used to have to sleep out overnight to get your limit of 2 new releases for $5 each that you could flip for $25-$100. Then they flooded the market with new product and there was no more secondary market demand as you could walk into any store and buy all you wanted no limits. Then you couldn't give them away. You had to know when the time to get out was and unload your inventory. Back then nobody thought that money train would ever stop until the company Ty changed their business model. I have some MWMT Princess Bears I will gladly trade you for your MISB DS ;)

Just a heads up, from March 28 - April 2, they are having 20% off all their legos, including the new stuff if anyone wants to grab some of the new sets at a discount.

Barbie Dolls. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Here is to hoping they start a tradition of having a UCS set on sale for $100 each year...

Please. Tin hats are so two hours ago. I've moved on to selling prozac on the beach to everyone who can't get over the good old days.

Would this be an appropriate time to shift some of the blame to the Chinese counterfeiters?

find a cop that's gonna enforce that. I won't. I'll show up and be like you're a d bag. Tryna but a death star with pennies. I'll arrest you for unlawful dumping. Billions of pennies on the counter. Shaking my head.

So I like toys and therefor have a crap ton of them at work. As you can see, I have some lego stuff, and a lot of dinosaurs. A lot of technic stuff as well. Problem is, some people at work (including my wife) think it is funny to play with my toys, which are for show and only for me to play with. What is the world coming to?

I use a much better scale for that... Do you not use a scale? That $30 was some of the best money I've spent. Saves a ton of time and I can't remember the last time I had to go to the post office, just use scheduled pick ups.

Thank you Mr. Happy. The Russian army will be coming soon to collect your sets. You better move to Greenland while you have a chance. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Only a fool would believe that if brickpicker did not exist everything would be good, If they did not make it, someone else would have. And they might not have been as friendly, nice or as entertaining as these guy's. I say great job, and keep it up.

Too many damn remakes, makes my head spin

Actually, if you think the number of competition is scary now, wait until the practitioners of "emazers' guide to success in LEGO reselling (TM?)" decide to sell their stash

I have $10k tied up in Spider-Cycle Chase. I hope nobody else is holding onto these.

Love it Bold!

I have a similar back ground. At 30 years old I came out of the dark ages in 2011. I started buying legos for my little boy before he turned one. Knowing legos aren't good for infants I kept them in boxes for his 5th birthday. I really enjoy legos and wanted to invest in Lego stock but the company isn't public. Low and behold, while doing that research I stumbled upon Brickpicker. After finding the increased value of some of the sets a new thought occured to me. My little boys 5th special day is quickly approaching and his exposure to legos thus far has been grand. So, I have decided to give him an option. Open them then or sell them for what ever else he might want. I'm expecting cardboard shrapnel...

I can give you all evidence of more "sellers" or "investors" than a few years ago. Here we go. Who here was "selling" or "investing" in LEGO before Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Ok, just a handful. Now, who started AFTER Jan 2010? Raise your hand. Wow, too many to count. Come one guys and gals its not rocket science. Yes there are more. Yes the pie has to be split up more. Yes sales per individual will be less per same unit. Remember: Denial is not a river in Africa. Ok, new question. Who here was solely a "buyer" or "hobbyist" until you started "investing" or "selling". Wow, that's a lot of hands. No more need to discuss. Class dismissed.

Gah! Yes, that is the one. Thank you all! /The perils of not being a big SW fan.

The graph tells us nothing except what the last year looked like. We need the last 2 or 3 years to make any meaningful guesses and comparisons. If the sold graphs are holding steady while the listing graph is growing, that implies that the seller pool is growing while the buyer pool is holding steady. We need 2-3 years worth to have a meaningful discussion.

I hate to break it to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there, but Jeff and I have observed this type of graph and data since we have started keeping track well over 3 years ago. The same shape of graph, over the same time periods, with the same ups and downs, highs and lows. We have seen it for site activity, CAGR, # of sales, total $ sales and so on. It is remarkably consistent. This whole conversation is based on one seller's observations, with no other basis in fact. So I wouldn't bail on LEGO investing just yet if you want my opinion.

Thanks for the advice! Yeah I think I went through the buy everything I saw on clearance phase. I didn't drop a huge amount of money and I think I only got burnt on a couple of things. I could always absorb them in my personal collection. The temptation to add to my minifigure collection is enormous.

That's exactly how he looks on the show. I believe Homer dressed up as him once.

You've just been removed from Emazers Christmas card list Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

I'd like to know your thoughts.

Finished building the Ewok Village (over 8 days). Next week is the Black Pearl that I picked up this week at a true cost of $90*. *I bought a used set at $90, built it, sold it for $166 after fees, bought a used Black Pearl and finally kept the difference.