10218 - Pet Shop

[Crustybeaver]

So guys please clarify this for me.... We are now getting GE, TH and PS retiring any day now? This gets more amusing by the day! 

 

I believe America is rapidly becoming over saturated with vast numbers of investors. The shortages affecting TH and PS have (IMO) nothing to do with imminent retirement and more to do vast numbers of purchases clearing stocks. Look what happens when 250 items become available, it's gone within minutes. It's just madness. 

 

EOL:

 

GE - 2014

PS - 2015

TH - 2016

 

If they all go end of life in the next year I'll eat a plate of Lego!

[Neosphinx]

So guys please clarify this for me.... We are now getting GE, TH and PS retiring any day now? This gets more amusing by the day! 

 

I believe America is rapidly becoming over saturated with vast numbers of investors. The shortages affecting TH and PS have (IMO) nothing to do with imminent retirement and more to do vast numbers of purchases clearing stocks. Look what happens when 250 items become available, it's gone within minutes. It's just madness. 

 

EOL:

 

GE - 2014

PS - 2015

TH - 2016

 

If they all go end of life in the next year I'll eat a plate of Lego!

 

Over saturated and I think they just buy more quantity then the average European. I can be mistaken of course, I just go by what people post here and pics of stockrooms. 

I'm sure you won't have to eat a plate of Lego. Pet Shop is popular modular, good price and lots of cool items in it. I don't see why TLG would think of retiring it. Of course, if they change their business plan for modulars, all is possible.

[TLKC]

I think th and ge this year or jan/feb 2015 - ps end 2015/jan/feb 2016

[biniou]

I think theres only one webshop and stock for europe?

Yes. Only languages and sometimes prices change. Stock are the same, because items are shipped from germany, netherlands, denmark... irrespectively.

 

It seems that there are 3 "LEGO Shop at Home regions":

- North america

- Europe and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand)

- Korea (old sets like 4587 Joker or are still sold there)

 

No shop for Japan, only a website.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I'm going to feel very smug if the PS retires first as I've always thought that was the dark horse of the modular and I have "******" amount of them.

 

@Crusty.... I made a pepper grinder (just need to find it) a while back using old bits and technic gears.  Just holler if you need it to make your "snack" more palatable. ;-)

[tractorboy]

So guys please clarify this for me.... We are now getting GE, TH and PS retiring any day now? This gets more amusing by the day! 

 

I believe America is rapidly becoming over saturated with vast numbers of investors. The shortages affecting TH and PS have (IMO) nothing to do with imminent retirement and more to do vast numbers of purchases clearing stocks. Look what happens when 250 items become available, it's gone within minutes. It's just madness. 

 

EOL:

 

GE - 2014

PS - 2015

TH - 2016

 

If they all go end of life in the next year I'll eat a plate of Lego!

But what caused a shortage of TH in the US to begin with? There weren't many people stocking up on that before it went OOS. It's still available in the EU too.

Maybe just a blip in the distribution flow which then has the knock-on effect of everyone panic buying?

Maybe even a deliberate blip, so Lego can clear some old TH stock courtesy of jumpy investors?

 

I agree with where you're coming from though. Surely they wouldn't retire 3 modulars in the same season?

At least one of TH or PS will be around another year, I would have thought.

[Ed Mack]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

[Bold-Arrow]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

that would definitely change MY buying strategy and possibly be a game changer.

I wouldn't be surprised if they do though, any business losses money if their product is just sitting on the shelf and axing the slow movers makes a lot of business sense and nothing to do with messing with resellers . Although I can see the latter as a positive consequence from TLG's point of view

[tractorboy]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

I can totally see how the TH might be getting retired if it's a poor seller. So maybe the GE is gonna be like the DS of the modulars, and be around another year or two?

And the PS is just having shortages because of 2xVIP, and maybe some follow-on panic from the TH?

[sadowsk1]

It would seem factors like popularity is and always has been a determining element in a sets longevity for the most part.  They create so many of a set and they hold onto it until it either sells out or is unwanted overhead and is inconvenient to store and is consequently clearanced out.  I think sales pace determines whether or not more is produced after an initial run or two.

[trekgate502]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

Wow

[thirsty]

Like 10227 retiring before 10221...  I can see this happening with Town Hall before Pet Shop.  Very interesting.

[tractorboy]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

...

To answer your question Ed...I would say it would be harder to make money, as there would be fewer (if any) hot sets getting retired.

 

The question I would ask is, how does that boost Lego's profits? Which is the bottom line at the end of the day, not how much money we are making.

They're not going to risk losing money just in order to throw a spanner in the secondary market.

Edited October 7, 2014 by tractorboy

[Neosphinx]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

That would be a catastrophe for the secondary market. Instead of 1 DS, you'd have 5-6-7 because the items are too much in demand. I guess the secondary market needs to keep itself in check.

I believe that because of the influx of new demands, TLG decided to put in a (few) extra runs. Mainly I think we just need to stop being like emazers. What is the need to have 15 or 20 GE's if they keep on making more of them. 

[trekgate502]

I am more optimistic on the secondary market.  Even if Lego makes changes to their policies we can survive and be profitable, it just takes more research and patience on our part.  That's my optimism for the day.

[rich79]

I wonder what the guy from TLG thinks when he reads all these theorie's.

And how many % of all Lego sets get in hands from investers?

[Crustybeaver]

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

[tonysbricks]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

I tend to agree. TLG has a first world problem in that their product is so popular they cannot keep up with demand. In order to get the best use of their finite producing capacity while they bring more factories online they have to look at their best profit items and focus on those. If TH doesnt make the cut it doesnt make the cut, release date be damned. They are in the drivers seat and it makes no sense to tie up factory time on OK sellers that take months to clear out when they have tumblers disappearing in days.

[legokent]

If I was running TLG, I'd play the game with all of us resellers. I'd retire some sets early so that the value of the LEGO sets seem to be very high and profitable. People will think all sets in the line will follow this particular set.  Meanwhile I over produce others so that the resellers will hoard and stock up on them hoping to hit the next jackpot. Right before resellers realize they bought crap, I'd end this line and start creating new lines to keep things fresh and people hopeful. Maybe even make a little profit off the crap they bought just to keep them happy and keep hoarding. With the money TLG is making I believe they can afford a few market analysts to model this market and maximize their profit. They probably read through brickpicker everyday just to gain more insight on the market.(Hi lego analyst, please tip the scale in our favor a bit more. Thx)  We are all puppets in this game.         

 

With all that said......I just bought another pet shop....

Edited October 7, 2014 by legokent

[Ed Mack]

To answer your question Ed...I would say it would be harder to make money, as there would be fewer (if any) hot sets getting retired.

 

The question I would ask is, how does that boost Lego's profits? Which is the bottom line at the end of the day, not how much money we are making.

They're not going to risk losing money just in order to throw a spanner in the secondary market.

How would they lose money if the poor sellers retire first?  If the Town Hall or UCS B-Wing were poor sellers and not selling, how can replacing them with a potentially better and more popular product be bad for their bottom line?

[Ed Mack]

I think box size also plays a role in this "possible" early retirement as well.  The Town Plan has a huge box.  The Pet Shop box is large in comparison to the new Modulars.  They take up more space on the shelf, more money to produce and more money to ship.  This, combined with slower sales could be the nail in the coffin.  

[KShine]

      

[TheBrickClique]

Another way to look at it -- how can they make the most money with the least plastic?

The bigger sets must not be the best use of their molding equipment when evaluation the sets as price per weight.

This assumes opportunity costs are in play which I expect they must be while they try to ramp additional factories.

[Spanky]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

To answer your question Ed...I would say it would be harder to make money, as there would be fewer (if any) hot sets getting retired.

 

The question I would ask is, how does that boost Lego's profits? Which is the bottom line at the end of the day, not how much money we are making.

They're not going to risk losing money just in order to throw a spanner in the secondary market.

 

Does TLG truly have a philosophy of first released, first retired?  Sure, we can observe that as a general trend, but there are always exceptions. Look at the Star Wars UCS series; R2-D2 was released before B-Wing, yet B-Wing retired first.  We all know why; B-Wing was a poor seller and there was no reason for TLG to keep it in the catalog.

 

It is possible that Town Hall has been a poor seller as well. The boost to TLG's profits is by eliminating the losers and keeping the winners. I don't think TLG is dogmatic about "first in, first out", I think they are dogmatic about "is this set earning the right to continue in our catalog?".

[biniou]

I can totally see how the TH might be getting retired if it's a poor seller. So maybe the GE is gonna be like the DS of the modulars, and be around another year or two?

 

Pfiuuu if it's true we'll see tons of GE on ebay, and far less investors in the game. A new era of investing (sort of).

 

How would they lose money if the poor sellers retire first?  If the Town Hall or UCS B-Wing were poor sellers and not selling, how can replacing them with a potentially better and more popular product be bad for their bottom line?

 

I quote it because "like it" is not enough.

 

I think box size also plays a role in this "possible" early retirement as well.  The Town Plan has a huge box.  The Pet Shop box is large in comparison to the new Modulars.  They take up more space on the shelf, more money to produce and more money to ship.  This, combined with slower sales could be the nail in the coffin.  

 

Couldn't lego simply make some new smaller boxes for these sets ?