10211 - Grand Emporium

[legodelorean]

It depends on your time-frame. If you're prepared to keep it for two to three years I think doubling your investment (after fees) is more than possible

Time frame would be long term....so yeah, 2-3 years.  I'm not looking to flip or get quick cash.  I'm putting these in the closet and forgetting about them for a while.

[legodelorean]

Your LEGO

[JRandall]

tell me about it.  i have so much "wasted" space due to buying Monster Fighter, Superman's Lex, Orc Forges, and Tower Bridge sets too early.  All the sets were bought within 2-4 months of when they were expected to retire. 

 

 

 

agreed.  everything thinks the 10211 GE will perform like the FB.  no way.  FB was also considered the more popular set due to the design and being an old fashioned firehouse.  plus when panic buying for FB started, it wasn't as early for it so the hoarders didn't have an obvious "heads up" on the FB like the GE.  Design-wise, the GE will prob end up being the less valuable building (of them all) as the others are better looking and not as boring (in my opinion).    cinema palace should even appreciate better than FB if it's on the market for the same period of time.  if for some reason, it retires before 3 years, it will be awesome.

 

do i like GE, heck yeah.  i just see it like the red-headed stepchild of this them.  kinda like that winter market carnival set from last year when compared to the previous winter sets.  

 

once retired, GE demand / appreciation should stabilize faster than the prev and future retired sets of this line.  it's not like it has a short production run.

I think if you can rest on what you own you'll be just fine.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Thanks Darth Raichu, I've finally heard the song that the other 6,999,999,999 people on Earth have been raving about.  I'm very intolerant with queueing and hate paying through the nose for refreshments hence, I very rarely go to cinemas.  However, I'm buying the Lego Movie BluRay as soon as it's available in the UK to watch on my massive TV with surround sound and a coolbox of beer next to my armchair with a pussycat on my lap.

 

Oh yes, I'd better stick to the subject.  As for the GE, I think it's one of those sets that you have to sell in a very short post EOL window or wait several years.  The FB seemed to rise quickly and then plateau not long after EOL but, will probably rise again in time.  As we enter a new investing era, I think timing is now as important as the waiting.

 

To double your money these days, you'll need to ask for 2.5 times what you paid to cover fees and P&P which is approx.

[newbie77]

Thanks Darth Raichu, I've finally heard the song that the other 6,999,999,999 people on Earth have been raving about.  I'm very intolerant with queueing and hate paying throught the nose for refreshments hence, I very rarely go to cinemas.  However, I'm buying the Lego Movie BluRay as soon as it's available in the UK to watch on my massive TV with surround sound and a coolbox of beer next to my armchair with a pussycat on my lap.

 

Oh yes, I'd better stick to the subject.  As for the GE, I think it's one of those sets that you have to sell in a very short post EOL window or wait several years.  The FB seemed to rise quickly and then plateau not long after EOL but, will probably rise again in time.  As we enter a new investing era, I think timing is now as important as the waiting.

 

To double your money these days, you'll need to ask for 2.5 times what you paid to cover fees and P&P which is approx.

[jaisonline]

I think if you can rest on what you own you'll be just fine.

 

no doubt,  it's just that i was a young buck in lego investing then and pretty much bought everything that was on 25% or greater discount regardless of the release date. thus, i wasted valuable space and cash that could have been saved for times like now with the GE or last yr with more 10227s or FBs

[JRandall]

I think all the talk of average returns or lack of interest in the GE is humerous.  I put up a Brick Trader advert just the other day offering sets including King's Castle Seige(7094) which jumped $200 in value in the course of last month alone, SSD, Unimog, Rare Halo Forward Unto Dawn Ship, Shelob attacks, and 41999 all new sets in box and good condition, and I have no bites whatsoever.  So this tells me three possible scenarios are occuring. Either #1, that everyone who has GE wants to hold onto them, even at the expense of not trading for already retired sets that have been increasing in value at a good pace because they believe it's retiring and will shoot up in value.  #2 That most people on these forums don't have any money to spend or ship, or have already spent everything they can, they can't even afford to trade. #3 Those with rarer or valuable sets are only looking for older retired sets.

 

Going back to King's Castle Seige.. in the last month stock somehow decreased very fast and the regular price went from $200 and change to upwards $400. I listed my set I purchased for $180 in January and sold it for $350 within 12 hours of listing it on Amazon.  When people start to see sets they like are disappearing from stock and not being refreshed they are going to start paying alot more money, especially collectors with money, and FB and GE will do that also for the Modular fans.  As stock comes into the market to meet the demand, prices will re-balance, but ultimately as those sets decrease again price becomes dictated more so by the seller and the price will shoot up.  This will happen with the most popular sets.

[hendrikdejager]

Got a GE yesterday, 24S4 on them.

[trekgate502]

I'll say something on the positive side to make people feel better who are Lego diehard investors and GE fans.

 

First, yes people are hoarding sets.

Yes there are more investors than ever.

 

However,

I consider brickpicker.com THE AUTHORITATIVE source for Lego Investors.

Looking at the home page - it says 394 people have joined in the last week and 747 users are online.

I am sure there are a ton of members on this site.

 

That all being said

 

How many people are so madly into the lego daily deals that they follow the topic every day and get all the updates.

I am one.

It has netted me $18 UMB Canon's, $27 Technic MK II's and $360 SSD's.

 

Looking at today's there are only 32 so far

Yesterday's there was 45 and that thread is basically over

 

 

Earth population 7 bilion

 

Lego Movie box office revenue to date 467 million.

 

Assuming 15$ a ticket (high end) that is about 31 million people going to see the movie in theaters let alone those who buy a copy.

Lego Movie 2 on the way

 

Lego more popular then ever

 

Theme parks taking off

 

What does all this mean?

 

 

Do you really think the hoarding of GE is at so many sets that based on the popularity of Lego that the <100 people that follow the daily deals (I am sure thousands read it and don't post or follow) means that it is going to be a terrible performer?

 

Fine, lets say there is 100,000 GE sets in private reseller inventory.  I don't think that by the way.

 

7 billion people is a lot.  Even if you just look at the US 313 million population, its a lot.

 

That means over a course of years we would have to sell a GE to 1 out of every 3,130 people even if our target audience was 313 million and not 7 billion to sell out the full inventory.  I like that number.

 

My summary is, I am in the stock market too, but most every set I have ever bought (over $30) and held for 18 months I net at least 10% after all fees and business taxes.

 

It is not a green grocer.  It may not be what fire brigade will be after 5 years.

But I think it beats passbook savings and is safer than the stock market for my situation.

 

Most important everyone should do what they feel led to do.  Genuinely.  Savings Account.  Stock Market. Lego Investing.

Everyone has there own set of circumstances, risk factors and situations.  One should not put down the other.

 

GE is a winner in my opinion.

[jaisonline]

This set is not and was not more popular than the FB.

 

For the last 2 years, the GE was never discussed as much as the FB, PC, and PS (at least on this site until this Spring).  We each have our own opinion.  I'm only commenting on what I remember reading here and see out in the wild.  I also remembering many people in that FB thead stating it's prob the #2 of not #1 best looking modular. Plus the FB is one of those modulars that won't be repeated on a high level. We'll see another "shopping center" like GE before another town hall, fire house, movie theater, etc...

 

FB was heavily hoarded. You might want to check some threads from last year and you'll see how many piled onto that.

 

Was the FB hoarded?  Of course but later in the year (2013) compared to GE this year.  The GE isn't surprising anyone (unless it doesn't retire) like the FB caught many by surprise other than the people who said "it's gotta retire" every year since 2011..

 

So last year, no one really knew if any modular building was going to retire.

Recap :

-10182 CC was released in Fall 2007and was available until late 2009.

-10185 GG was released in Spring 2008 and was available until late 2010.

-------------Each had about a 3  year retail life.

-10197 FB arrives in Fall 2009.

-10211 GE arrives in Spring 2010.

-10218 PS arrives in Spring 2011 but guess what?  10197 FB didn't follow suit by retiring like CC and GG with a 3 yr retail life.

-10224 TH arrives in Spring 2012 but guess what (again), not only doesn't 10197 FB retire but neither does GE. We are all perplexed.

-Now it's 2013.  We have 3 modular buildings on the market when a 4th arrives (10232 PC in Spring 2013).  Now everyone is scratching their heads.  4 sets of the same theme on the market and no real evidence of PS or GE retiring.   Then all the sudden, FB sells out on amazon for the final time in late Aug 2013.  Target and Walmart follow suit. Lego finally sells out in early Dec. 2014. 

-In 2014, everyone and their grandmom feels the GE is going to be next.  Amazon sells out of GE in late May / early June of the set (compared to late Aug like in 2013)  shop@home begins selling out of the GE in May compared to 2013 when it was in the Winter).

 

So yes, I believe more GEs are hoarded (even if slightly more) then FBs from looking at dates (brickset and camelcamelcamel) plus skimming through the FB thread again.

 

 

 

I have more friend with the FB than the GE and now they are kicking themselves. GE going EOL seemed to be a shock for many

 

Please introduce me to this friend and i'll gladly trade him some GEs for FBs.

 

 

In summary, I like the GE   In my own opinion, i just don't see it racing out the gate like a Triple Crown (horse) winner like the FB did because more people are prepared.

 

 

Please remember this post is not about GE vs. FB or which one is better.  They both are "goodness" in their own ways.   I'm looking at it from a investment comparison.  GE will do "great" during EOL.  

[neocacher]

My GE (1) from June 20th shipped today from LEGO Shop at Home.

[neocacher]

GE back to sold out on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sorry if this is a repeat post.

[jaisonline]

GE back to sold out on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sorry if this is a repeat post.

 

no worries.  this is most likely another one of GE's "brush, rinse, and repeat" until hopefully this Winter when we see the "Retired Product" tag on it.

[Ed Mack]

The market offers far better results than that. The CAGR for the Dow Jones for the past 5 years is 15.69%. Not too many lego sets offer that kind of return. There is also alot less risk and work when buying and selling the Dow compared to reselling lego sets. The simple fact is out of the hundreds of sets TLG makes every year only a handful will beat the market. If you don't choose those 4-5 sets correctly you are doing yourself a huge disservice. And if you are going to pay yourself or employees an actual wage to list, pack and do customer service then even those 4-5 good sets won't beat the market consistently. This is a great hobby, a mediocre business, and a poor investment. I understand nobody on these boards wants to hear that but there are way too many rose colored glasses around here.

 

 

Here we go again.  Add 1 more year to your Dow Jones or S&P average ROR and let me know how your rate of return was?  I know of not one investor that started at a cash position (not lost and then sold out) at the market bottoms of 2009 and rode the wave up to today.  That is a biased skewed rear view look which is completely inaccurate for measuring TROR.  A better measure would be those sets that retired in 2008 measured against the dow or s&p until today.  LEGO wins hands down and blows it out of the water when you account for risk or (on a risk adjusted basis).

Here are a few "handfuls" of sets available from late 2008 and early 2009(approximately 5 years ago) and their CAGRs...

 

10189 Taj Mahal  32.97%

10185 Green Grocer 33.63%

10184 Town Plan 17.84%

10187 VW Beetle 32.04%

4997 Transport Ferry 18.52%

10181 Eiffel Tower 36.33%

10182 Cafe Corner 40.83%

10179 Millennium Falcon 29.57%

 

These are also 8 of the first 9 largest sets(pieces) released those years(kinda similar to the large company stocks that make up the DOW).  The other set not included was the 10188 Death Star(...sort of an anomaly IMO).  So even if you were Joe "The Investment" Schmoe and picked the top 8-10 largest sets every year to invest in(a simple investment strategy), you would probably beat the market consistently year after year.  I realize these were some exceptional sets, but then the last 5 years of the market were quite exceptional as well.

[brettj666]

Here are a few "handfuls" of sets available from late 2008 and early 2009(approximately 5 years ago) and their CAGRs...

 

10189 Taj Mahal  32.97%

10185 Green Grocer 33.63%

10184 Town Plan 17.84%

10187 VW Beetle 32.04%

4997 Transport Ferry 18.52%

10181 Eiffel Tower 36.33%

10182 Cafe Corner 40.83%

10179 Millennium Falcon 29.57%

 

These are also 8 of the first 9 largest sets(pieces) released those years(kinda similar to the large company stocks that make up the DOW).  The other set not included was the 10188 Death Star(...sort of an anomaly IMO).  So even if you were Joe "The Investment" Schmoe and picked the top 8-10 largest sets every year to invest in(a simple investment strategy), you would probably beat the market consistently year after year.  I realize these were some exceptional sets, but then the last 5 years of the market were quite exceptional as well.

 

 

I'd also like to add that "IF" the market falls significantly below what you invested and you panic, you don't have the option of going back to the broker and say "Can I get my money back"

 

There are even fewer products that you can't at least get break even money for.

 

 

I'm wondering though, do people that talk about 'new investors flooding the market' realize that a website like this actually hurts your purchases, not help it?

[Darth_Raichu]

I started hoarding the FB in may of last year and I had so much time from may 2013 all the way to December to hoard. With the GE, look what's going on. People are panic buying. Any supply is scooped up immediately. Just look at what's going on. Announcement, "available on SAH." Forums, "I put in my order." Five minutes later, "OOS." Check the history and see if that happened with the FB.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

I was going to reply to this but jaisonline explained it much better than I ever could

Basically people saw what happened with FB and are preparing for GE's eventual retirement.

The only thing that will surprise many people is if GE is NOT retiring this year or Spring 2015 at the latest.

[Ed Mack]

 

I'm wondering though, do people that talk about 'new investors flooding the market' realize that a website like this actually hurts your purchases, not help it?

Explain?

[siulon]

Explain?

i think he was talking about the more BPer there are, the more people are fighting for the same numbers of GE, or whatever sets in general. So, for a sets that's high demanding, going retirement, combined with competition among BPers, that's what he meant by hurting? I am just guessing, i could be wrong

[emonster]

my 2 cents... My goal is NOT to piss any one off here but, I don't like the way batches of stock show up at various locations when everyone thinks that the stock is done on a particular model (i.e. SSD, or GE). Don't you guys think that lego knows about the hoarding that goes on at the seemingly eol? If I were lego, I would put up small batches of quantities for sale until the buying dries up.

 

From the panic buying that I am seeing on the forums when a batch shows up, I think we have a ways to go until real EOL.

 

that is why i can't get myself to buy anything at retail...

 

I am pretty new at this, and may be completely wrong, but I am looking forward to reading your thoughts. 

[BrickHouse]

back in stock at SAH July 25th ship date

[psusyntar]

Anyone else notice that GE is now the 'Top Sellers' on S&**** site.  Replaces Ecto-1.

[grackleflint]

I think all the talk of average returns or lack of interest in the GE is humerous.  I put up a Brick Trader advert just the other day offering sets including King's Castle Seige(7094) which jumped $200 in value in the course of last month alone, SSD, Unimog, Rare Halo Forward Unto Dawn Ship, Shelob attacks, and 41999 all new sets in box and good condition, and I have no bites whatsoever.  So this tells me three possible scenarios are occuring. Either #1, that everyone who has GE wants to hold onto them, even at the expense of not trading for already retired sets that have been increasing in value at a good pace because they believe it's retiring and will shoot up in value.  #2 That most people on these forums don't have any money to spend or ship, or have already spent everything they can, they can't even afford to trade. #3 Those with rarer or valuable sets are only looking for older retired sets.

 

 

Yeah, no one wants to trade GE's because we all figure it's gonna be like FB and just double overnight once it's officially retired and the return trade value now would be around retail and I think most people are looking at trades in terms of investing/resale potential.

 

The other big thing is that anyone who has extra GE's has probably been doing this for a long time and already has the sets that you have to offer. I looked at your advert and I already have everything you listed (and I've only been doing this for 2 1/2 years) So, even though I might be interested in 7094, I don't love it enough from a collector/investor/resale point of view to offer anything close to $400 in a trade, especially since LEGO has the current castle sets with even a dragon available.

 

I'm running into the same issue, looking for a used GG and willing to value it at the current retail price for trade value thinking that people might be enticed with a couple of FB's/TB's but no bites yet. I could sell a couple of FB's to pay for a GG on eBay but I think/hope/pray the growth on new FB's is going be greater than used GG's and hopefully someone else who has one feels the same way. People just love their GG's and I don't blame them since it's such a wonderful set. 

 

That said, find a used GG and I'll trade you some GE's.

[trekgate502]

I am probably going to be told I am wrong, but I do not believe the Lego LEGO Shop at Home inventory MRP management system can be so off base that unintentionally they keep making 100 available, having them go out of stock and then ordering 100 more from Denmark. It has gone in and out of stock so many times in the last week your head spins.  I think what might be possible is that since the item is near EOL, and they have a limited supply (5,000 10,000 or so) that they keep releasing batches in waves to LEGO Shop at Home for people to order.  That way rather than like on their Star Wars sales where it is all gone in 5 minutes and it is done, they are trying to spread out availability so their key customers the average user can have a chance at ordering them.  If I was them that would make sense.

[Bold-Arrow]

my 2 cents... My goal is NOT to piss any one off here but, I don't like the way batches of stock show up at various locations when everyone thinks that the stock is done on a particular model (i.e. SSD, or GE). Don't you guys think that lego knows about the hoarding that goes on at the seemingly eol? If I were lego, I would put up small batches of quantities for sale until the buying dries up.

From the panic buying that I am seeing on the forums when a batch shows up, I think we have a ways to go until real EOL.

that is why i can't get myself to buy anything at retail...

I am pretty new at this, and may be completely wrong, but I am looking forward to reading your thoughts.

Releasing small batches would be a very experience and inefficient way of running a business. I think resellers only take a small cut out of the pie; our effect is overstated on sites like

BP since we are all Reese's.

[brettj666]

Explain?

(personally) I didn't join BP to learn about using liquid capital to earn better than market rates using Lego as a medium, I appreciate some perspectives and certainly tidbits from sources are useful. 

 

But I rely on my own wits and knowledge to grow the capital I have.  

 

But, as with anything, there's a learning curve.  When people can just google "lego investing" and come up with 15 facebook groups, this site and others that say "Get in the game" and have no issue asking (and getting answers to ) Tell me what to buy.

It's actually kind of refreshing, very socialist in fact.  (which is why it really surprises me)

 

When I've seen informercials saying "invest in real estate, I will show you how", the natural thing to wonder is why, if it's a good idea, do you want to further saturate the people doing it, which sort of eats into your earning possibilities.

 

Again, it's cool that people so freely share that info, but if I come across a store with a 50% sale going on (we don't get many of those in Canada), I'm not telling a bunch of friends who do the same thing until I've gotten out.  

 

I had someone who lived down the street from me say he missed the last sale on Maersk trains, would I be willing to TRADE (not even buy, he wanted to trade me for something that he had already inflated) at my cost (sale price)

So, um,.. No.. 

 

 

With the plethora of "what would you buy with $1000" or "this person is asking $200 for this lot, how much should I offer"  These to me aren't guidance questions, they are directions.

 

Having Brickpicker do things like rate of return, the forums, the EOL discussions, it makes it really easy for people to divide the market away from the people with the knowledge/insight.

 

Now, luckily I am not the "oh my gosh, I don't have any of those, I have to buy them" type of person" I buy them sporadically as I free up cash.  

Just it's interesting that that these threads aid in the hoarding and everyone seems to be ok with that.  It's nice, but surprising, especially when a good portion of people seem to be American (capitalism rules more handedly than say in Europe)