8 minutes ago, lostontheverglow said:

Even at the cost of diversifying my portfolio a bit? I do have a couple tumblers already.

You could spend $215 on a Tumbler at Walmart and have $45 left over.

Wait 6-9 months, sell the Tumbler for a profit $75 or so (hypothetically), and purchase a Tower of Orthanc for $290 (hypothetically).

That's $215 investment + 75 profit = $290 ... plus the $45 in your pocket.

10 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

 plus the $45 in your pocket.

Just about enough for an Ecto-1 

10 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

You could spend $215 on a Tumbler at Walmart and have $45 left over.

Wait 6-9 months, sell the Tumbler for a profit $75 or so (hypothetically), and purchase a Tower of Orthanc for $290 (hypothetically).

That's $215 investment + 75 profit = $290 ... plus the $45 in your pocket.

I am actually leaving the country for an extended period of time (~1 1/2 years - 2 years), and I won't be selling during that time. This makes a lot of sense during the short term since I'm pretty sure the Tumbler will appreciate (has been appreciating?) quicker initially. But the hypotheticals just get harder to predict as you look further down the timeline if that makes sense. I guess what it comes down to is whether I think a product like the Tumbler/Ewok's Village will plateau lower or higher than ToO.

Also the added value of having a second ToO to MOC my first tower is hard to value. All this thinking is what I think makes investing so fun

13 minutes ago, lostontheverglow said:

I am actually leaving the country for an extended period of time (~1 1/2 years - 2 years), and I won't be selling during that time. This makes a lot of sense during the short term since I'm pretty sure the Tumbler will appreciate (has been appreciating?) quicker initially. But the hypotheticals just get harder to predict as you look further down the timeline if that makes sense. I guess what it comes down to is whether I think a product like the Tumbler/Ewok's Village will plateau lower or higher than ToO.

Also the added value of having a second ToO to MOC my first tower is hard to value. All this thinking is what I think makes investing so fun

go with ur gut feeling and grab that ToO

If you do decide to get ToO and don't care about the box there's been one for $243 on AWD for a week or so.  

Side note -- this is one thing that has concerned me with the appreciation of this set. Usually AWD exclusives get picked up fairly quickly. Even a haunted house listed for much more than ebay only lasted a couple days. But there were two ToO on AWD for almost a month up until last week. Every day I would see them and wonder why, if there was any demand at all, these two lonely sets were never claimed. Even if 90% of buyers are box snobs I'd expect eventually someone who wasn't would stumble over them. Days then weeks went by and there they'd sit. Eventually they were both gone about the same time. Now there's another one up there. If the $2,700 Grand Carousel sells before the ToO I'm jumping ship  

 

36 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

If you do decide to get ToO and don't care about the box there's been one for $243 on AWD for a week or so.  

Side note -- this is one thing that has concerned me with the appreciation of this set. Usually AWD exclusives get picked up fairly quickly. Even a haunted house listed for much more than ebay only lasted a couple days. But there were two ToO on AWD for almost a month up until last week. Every day I would see them and wonder why, if there was any demand at all, these two lonely sets were never claimed. Even if 90% of buyers are box snobs I'd expect eventually someone who wasn't would stumble over them. Days then weeks went by and there they'd sit. Eventually they were both gone about the same time. Now there's another one up there. If the $2,700 Grand Carousel sells before the ToO I'm jumping ship  

 

But the current Orthanc on AWD is also labeled as repackaged.  I'm fine with buying damaged boxes from AWD, but I'd need a bigger discount for a repackaged set. Even if for a personal build, I like to have the damaged box. Right now there are a few 3rd party "fulfilled by Amazon" new ones for $261 which would only be a few more dollars than AWD for me since AWD charges me tax and the 3d party seller wouldn't.  It's odd that a greater discount hasn't been triggered on that AWD one.

Edited January 26, 20169 yr by Jondog21

On 26/1/2016 at 4:33 AM, lostontheverglow said:

I'm going to get one of these for a personal build at the current ~$260 range since I missed this before its EOL. I want to pick up another one for the same price to hold onto long term since I believe in this set doubling even at that price. Anyone think getting into this set $60 over MSRP is a very bad idea? Worst comes to worst, I can MOC it to make a larger tower which I wouldn't mind.

I wouldn't buy an extra one if I were you. Buying one for you is really cool, as it is a great build, and you can sell it back easily.

But buying an extra one at 260$... There are so much better investments. In addition, selling a 500$ set is difficult, even if it is the right price for it. 

10 minutes ago, denosya said:

selling a 500$ set is difficult

Really...? I haven't experienced that yet, here in the U.S.... [emoji4]

14 hours ago, dcdfan said:

 

what's the significance of your post?

14 hours ago, dcdfan said:

 

QFLL scum

That is quite the mark up!

I really doubt many ppl will spend $500+ on this set even after a few years.

7 minutes ago, yang said:

I really doubt many ppl will spend $500+ on this set even after a few years.

I couldn't imagine a world where people wouldn't spend $500 on this in a few years!

I'm going with Veegs. Large set, unlikely to be remade. Large loyal fan base, assume it isn't overly hoarded. It will be a slow rise, but it will only continue to go up

I really doubt many ppl will spend $500+ on this set even after a few years.

In fact people are paying that now. 350 pounds in UK = $501. When overseas gap get to large, UK will import them cheaper than buying local and gap will close

Long term one. Slow and steady climb...

I agree with justapilgrim and Veegs.

2 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

In fact people are paying that now. 350 pounds in UK = $501. When overseas gap get to large, UK will import them cheaper than buying local and gap will close

I meant US market, EU market seems like a totally different market. In US, I see a lot of sets sitting at $270-$290 right now.

12 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

In fact people are paying that now. 350 pounds in UK = $501. When overseas gap get to large, UK will import them cheaper than buying local and gap will close

 

8 minutes ago, yang said:

I meant US market, EU market seems like a totally different market. In US, I see a lot of sets sitting at $270-$290 right now.

The UK had about a six month head start on retirement that would pretty much explain the difference with that?

US market is flooded with these. Lots thought this would go a year earlier so that gave an entire year of heavy stocking in addition to what was already hoarded. Parts value is only $400 and with massive hoarding at good discounts and slow sales I am not expecting much. I have my stash in the 5+ year pile and in all honesty will prob forget I even had them come 2020. 

Arkham Asylum 2.0 

It will get there eventually...

11 minutes ago, marcandre said:

Arkham Asylum 2.0 

It will get there eventually...

Pro for ToO: less likely to see a remake than Arkham.

Con against ToO: no Batman fever.

It comes down to that "patience" thing again. If I can't sell for what I want by the time my son is married (he's 12 now), he'll have a helluva wedding gift.

LOTR requires patience to read, patience to watch the movie and even more patience for sets to appreciate.

This set doesn't seem to be doing much at all... can still be found on ebay for 250ish

1 hour ago, xuesongc said:

This set doesn't seem to be doing much at all... can still be found on ebay for 250ish

This set? Nothing seems to be doing very much at all.