Retiring Soon - open speculation

[brickolodon]

So TLG cancel "ban hammering"...

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[Villager Chris]

I think 2018 could be a year of sudden retirements and out of stocks, like the tail end of 2017. Some people, waiting for a discount, will get caught cold and miss out. The Hot Deals UK brigade will certainly miss out. I think a bold leap of faith will be required for 2018, buying at a low or no discount in anticipation of a retirement. 

Ultimately, if discounts are rarer, we'll all win. The 2017 glut will then be snapped up by bargain hunters who want to save a few £. 

[Villager Chris]

These sets appear to be drying up in the UK, with no restocking yet:

• 75182 Republic Fighter Tank
• 75168 Yoda Starfighter
• 75183 Vader Transformation
• 75169 Duel on Naboo
• 21019 Eiffel Tower
• 21028 New York

Could have been a Christmas rush, or a Mr. Knutstorp clean-up of inventories. 

[Val-E]

41 minutes ago, Villager Chris said:

These sets appear to be drying up in the UK, with no restocking yet:

• 75182 Republic Fighter Tank
• 75168 Yoda Starfighter
• 75183 Vader Transformation
• 75169 Duel on Naboo
• 21019 Eiffel Tower
• 21028 New York

Could have been a Christmas rush, or a Mr. Knutstorp clean-up of inventories. 

Xmas.

[Captain_chaos]

Well, if TLG are going to stop so many things being so heavily discounted, they will need to lower their RRPs. Let's have a return to the times of 2006/7 please. Honest pricing wins out for me.

[Will 4]

1 hour ago, Captain_chaos said:

Well, if TLG are going to stop so many things being so heavily discounted, they will need to lower their RRPs. Let's have a return to the times of 2006/7 please. Honest pricing wins out for me.

If only the sets were of similar size (right hand side is 2008 model) 

[Val-E]

Yay, we finally have a Brickhead out of stock in EU sale. It´s the  Hulk. Of 31 sets still available, 11 are Brickheadz.

[crayxlp]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yay, we finally have a Brickhead out of stock in EU sale. It´s the  Hulk. Of 31 sets still available, 11 are Brickheadz.

I wish so much they dont bounce back in three weeks with 50 % off.. 

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I wish so much they dont bounce back in three weeks with 50 % off.. 

Some of them won´t even bounce.....

[Villager Chris]

31 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yay, we finally have a Brickhead out of stock in EU sale. It´s the  Hulk. Of 31 sets still available, 11 are Brickheadz.

I wonder which will be the last standing? My money's on Captain America. 

[Val-E]

47 minutes ago, Villager Chris said:

I wonder which will be the last standing? My money's on Captain America. 

I already picked Finn as the last set but for Brickheadz, Armando Salazar has it.

[wotguvnotmeguv]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

Yay, we finally have a Brickhead out of stock in EU sale. It´s the  Hulk. Of 31 sets still available, 11 are Brickheadz.

Batgirl and Black widow are also TOOS.

[wotguvnotmeguv]

Add Iron Man to the list - he’s gone TOOS overnight.

[Val-E]

8 minutes ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

Add Iron Man to the list - he’s gone TOOS overnight.

And Finn

[dmind]

On 27-12-2017 at 9:23 PM, Villager Chris said:

These sets appear to be drying up in the UK, with no restocking yet:

• 75182 Republic Fighter Tank
• 75168 Yoda Starfighter
• 75183 Vader Transformation
• 75169 Duel on Naboo
• 21019 Eiffel Tower
• 21028 New York

Could have been a Christmas rush, or a Mr. Knutstorp clean-up of inventories. 

I was wondering why especially 75168 and 75183 were massively cleared by Amazon's in Europe at 50-60% off, along with all currently retiring sets. I hope they'll retire too, though Yoda and Vader make me doubt these sets will go. Anyhow good deals and quick flippers if not retiring...

[kumas]

any expert on Minecraft ? could be 21133 The Witch Hut good investment ? short shelf life but to me minecraft sets are indistinguishable from each other and I dont have any idea if there is any demand for older sets, also for the rrp it is quite small box, the licence must be pretty expensive

[Cheese]

any expert on Minecraft ? could be 21133 The Witch Hut good investment ? short shelf life but to me minecraft sets are indistinguishable from each other and I dont have any idea if there is any demand for older sets, also for the rrp it is quite small box, the licence must be pretty expensive

Suggest you read up on the Minecraft threads elsewhere on the forum

[Villager Chris]

30 minutes ago, kumas said:

any expert on Minecraft ? could be 21133 The Witch Hut good investment ? short shelf life but to me minecraft sets are indistinguishable from each other and I dont have any idea if there is any demand for older sets, also for the rrp it is quite small box, the licence must be pretty expensive

I've invested a lot in Minecraft over the last few months. Some sets are performing very strongly, whilst others less so. This set has a short shelf life going for it and some unique parts, but it is slower to sell out compared to other recent retirees. 

Check your ebay sold prices and how many sellers there are in the usual places. Also walk around the shops. This set is still available in John Lewis, for example, but other sets have long since gone. Maybe production is higher.  

Edited December 30, 2017 by Villager Chris

[wotguvnotmeguv]

4 hours ago, Val-E said:

And Finn

To clarify, Finn buildable rather than Finn Brickheadz.

The Joker Brickheadz is also now TOOS. Seven more of the Retiring Soon BH to go.

[Villager Chris]

6 hours ago, Villager Chris said:

I've invested a lot in Minecraft over the last few months. Some sets are performing very strongly, whilst others less so. This set has a short shelf life going for it and some unique parts, but it is slower to sell out compared to other recent retirees. 

Check your ebay sold prices and how many sellers there are in the usual places. Also walk around the shops. This set is still available in John Lewis, for example, but other sets have long since gone. Maybe production is higher.  

Update: 21133 has been reduced slightly to £49 at Amazon. This is about break/even on Ebay. I don't think they'll last long. I'm tempted, but I have a few and I need to save some cash for a Lego Store visit next week. 

[crayxlp]

On 27. 12. 2017 at 6:10 PM, Val-E said:

So, 2 days into the sale and this is what´s left.

All S1 Brickheadz - Turdiest theme of the year status confirmed.

SW MF 75105 (1 day on sale but clearly overproduced) and Finn - my 50% off marker.

Friends Performance School (1 day on sale and TRU exclusive that no one cares about), Bumper Cars and Puppy Parade

5 Nexo sets

7 Duplo

Elves 41184 (always at least one stinker per year and this is it)

3SH Mighty Micros

LBM Catwoman (a set so unpopular Amazon were giving them away) and Clayface

City Buggy.

I don´t think we´ll get more than half a dozen sets making it to 50% off, unless there are loads of returns.

 

 

It got me thinking (so many sets currently sold out) .. (in CEE at least) it could easily be contributed only to the right of the employer to specify a collective vacation for all the employees. In many Central European countries that is his legal right.. so if all ppl in Hungarian factory were ordered by LEGo to take "ordered vacation" lasting e.g. from December 19 - January 4.. there is simply nobody, who could produce European amount of bricks..-> nothing produced in Hungary = nothing can be transfered to Kladno, CZE for final packing - > The central EU SAH  warehouse near Munich gets nothing .. so there you get your out of stock

[Val-E]

That could well be the case for new sets but the retiring ones are all in the German warehouse already.

Perhaps they can find extra ones after inventory or from returns.

[crayxlp]

We all saw TECHNIC Arocs and Class gone.. and they got somehow back in like 2 weeks. And I remember also Elves Ragana's Castle doing the same. And at least the Technics didnt last for just a couple of hours, but days before they were cleared. This looks to me like some larger batch coming in than just a few tens of cancelled orders.. but again. only my assumptions.

[Val-E]

Just now, crayxlp said:

We all saw TECHNIC Arocs and Class gone.. and they got somehow back in like 2 weeks. And I remember also Elves Ragana's Castle doing the same. And at least the Technics didnt last for just a couple of hours, but days before they were cleared. This looks to me like some larger batch coming in than just a few tens of cancelled orders.. but again. only my assumptions.

and what about 75149? Retired in October then back for a month.

And I don´t need to remind you about Brickheadz again, do I?

[crayxlp]

My previous thought was that I see the "resurrection" as some final batch of sets put on the market by LEGO factory and not entirely originating in returns. You all call it around here "a dance" like it would be some deliberate action of LEGO company and not just trying to get rid of the returns.