8110 - Mercedes-Benz Unimog U 400

[Ciglione]

6 months on and Unimog actually seems to be losing value - recent sales have been between 195 and 250 euros. Very poor for what is a great set with lots of useful parts.

It will be interesting to see how 42009 crane does after EOL - is it an oversupply issue?

I really think it is an oversupply issue yes. There are still many sealed ones offered on Ebay and Craig's Lists. This set is yet to become scarce. It will go slow as Technic is a niche market. I hold my breath what will happen to MKII. Possibly also very much hoarded. The only way to possibly go around this is to buy as cheap as possible. I would suggest minimum -30%. And then be happy with a modest profit. 

[Kenxxx]

I was just looking at price history on camelcamelcamel at different retired sets, and it looks like the last 6 months have been weak for most sets.  In fact, the majority of sets I looked at peaked in March 2015 and has been flat, or declining since then.

[Ciglione]

I was just looking at price history on camelcamelcamel at different retired sets, and it looks like the last 6 months have been weak for most sets.  In fact, the majority of sets I looked at peaked in March 2015 and has been flat, or declining since then.

True... many sets have lost value. Even Town Hall is not performing anymore like it did. Also there are more and more offered online. Seems like this set was not as scarce as we thought? Many people have some stashed away on the attict it seems. 

[Val-E]

I was just looking at price history on camelcamelcamel at different retired sets, and it looks like the last 6 months have been weak for most sets.  In fact, the majority of sets I looked at peaked in March 2015 and has been flat, or declining since then.

A soft landing is always better than a sudden decline so in that regard things are not critical yet. The summer months are also low season so we really need to wait and see what happens over the next quarter to judge where the market is at.

Some sets that I wouldn´t classify as rare still appreciating well e.g. SSD, HH, 60024, RI, Delorean, 9493  whereas others are in limbo. What will really make a difference is when people start flooding the market with their old SW stuff - that will be proof as to how able the market is to absorb stock.

9398 seems to be matching 8110 and it is also a highly hoarded set. Perhaps full RC has more appeal than a static model.

 

[KShine]

True... many sets have lost value. Even Town Hall is not performing anymore like it did. Also there are more and more offered online. Seems like this set was not as scarce as we thought? Many people have some stashed away on the attict it seems. 

Most of the ones that sold during the run up were to each other - Remember, so many seemed certain (during the hype) they were going to sell them for $1,000 at Christmas.

This was not a popular set - and now (after the dip in price) some sellers are worried, and looking to get out. Until the actual end users buy them, things could be difficult.

Overall, the market is absolutely flooded with sellers. I periodically re-visit my stash of unlisted aging sets (to check if they are reaching their price points). More than ever, it seems that many of the prices are going nowhere. As I am considering changing some of my own rules, others are certainly doing the same. Stagnant prices, more supply, other sellers dumping supply - it isn't good.

[Ciglione]

Most of the ones that sold during the run up were to each other - Remember, so many seemed certain (during the hype) they were going to sell them for $1,000 at Christmas.

This was not a popular set - and now (after the dip in price) some sellers are worried, and looking to get out. Until the actual end users buy them, things could be difficult.

Overall, the market is absolutely flooded with sellers. I periodically re-visit my stash of unlisted aging sets (to check if they are reaching their price points). More than ever, it seems that many of the prices are going nowhere. As I am considering changing some of my own rules, others are certainly doing the same. Stagnant prices, more supply, other sellers dumping supply - it isn't good.

I have the same experience when I check my stash. It is getting worse and worse indeed. And it is true what you say. At first it were mostly resellers who were buying Town Halls thus increasing its value. Now we will see what is the real value of this set. For ordinary people that is.

Also when I compare to September last year I had sold alot. This September sales are very poor. Eventhough the economy is supposed to have picked up and people are spending more money. 

  

Edited September 26, 2015 by Ciglione

[Val-E]

And I thought I was the pessimistic one!

9398, 42009 and 8110 were all easily available for at least 30% off whereas the newer sets since 2014 have been harder to get at any real discount so if prices don´t go up on the recent sets, Technic is no longer a safe investment.

[Ciglione]

And I thought I was the pessimistic one!

9398, 42009 and 8110 were all easily available for at least 30% off whereas the newer sets since 2014 have been harder to get at any real discount so if prices don´t go up on the recent sets, Technic is no longer a safe investment.

The problem with Technic sets is that they just won't die! I can still find 42000 and 8110 around in toyshops. And the prices are even dropping there. So why would anyone sane buy it from us at inflated prices?

[Val-E]

The problem with Technic sets is that they just won't die! I can still find 42000 and 8110 around in toyshops. And the prices are even dropping there. So why would anyone sane buy it from us at inflated prices?

Laziness.

[KShine]

I have the same experience when I check my stash. It is getting worse and worse indeed. And it is true what you say. At first it were mostly resellers who were buying Town Halls thus increasing its value. Now we will see what is the real value of this set. For ordinary people that is.

Also when I compare to September last year I had sold alot. This September sales are very poor. Eventhough the economy is supposed to have picked up and people are spending more money. 

  

At least you can't recall what the world was like 5 years ago - Treasure was everywhere, with little if any competition.

[legone3]

So, to summarize, the market for new Unimogs at $300 are people that:

- Are collectors / completionists (still want 8110 regardless of 42043), and

- Don't mind the look of the Unimog, and

- Have money, and

- Are lazy / insane

Small market, I think.

 

 

 

[chipbee]

I think recent stock market turmoil and commodity price plunge has spooked many people. Folks are pulling back on discretionery consumption. If you look at sales volume of retired sets like 10221 and 10224, the volume dropped a lot in Aug, about same time as usa stock mkt correction. I think once the stock mkt finds its footing, lego retired set sales will continued its usual self.

[Val-E]

So, to summarize, the market for new Unimogs at $300 are people that:

- Are collectors / completionists (still want 8110 regardless of 42043), and

- Don't mind the look of the Unimog, and

- Have money, and

- Are lazy / insane

Small market, I think.

 

 

 

42043 is as similar to 8110 as F40 is to VW T1 - even less as the colour is different!

It is true that 42043 has brought in pneumatics again but it is a different scale to the unimog and is more akin to 8258 just with more parts and no XL motor.

However, I agree that the market for big Technic sets is probably smaller than the number of units that sellers have massed - the same can be said for most other sets that were supposed to be the "bees knees" like Benny´s Spaceship or AA. Sellers have a choice to ride it out until they are the last standing or sell at little or no profit and move on.

I´m sad as it is one of the first post dark ages sets I bought and was a super build and display model (to some it looks ugly but that has already been discussed in the R2D2 thread).

 

[Val-E]

I think recent stock market turmoil and commodity price plunge has spooked many people. Folks are pulling back on discretionery consumption. If you look at sales volume of retired sets like 10221 and 10224, the volume dropped a lot in Aug, about same time as usa stock mkt correction. I think once the stock mkt finds its footing, lego retired set sales will continued its usual self.

I´d tend to agree with the view that 10224 growth has stopped due both to investors not buying them up at current market prices and sellers seeing the green light to unload at double RRP point. Perhaps Darin would like to contribute his opinion.

[KShine]

I think recent stock market turmoil and commodity price plunge has spooked many people. Folks are pulling back on discretionery consumption. If you look at sales volume of retired sets like 10221 and 10224, the volume dropped a lot in Aug, about same time as usa stock mkt correction. I think once the stock mkt finds its footing, lego retired set sales will continued its usual self.

LEGO soared right through the aftermath of the financial crisis - If there are changes taking place, I doubt that would be the reason.

Of course, LEGO investors back then were a different breed (much more disciplined, etc).

Edited September 26, 2015 by KShine

[Migration]

At least you can't recall what the world was like 5 years ago - Treasure was everywhere, with little if any competition.

treasure is still everywhere, you need only get your head out of the past and look. 

[Val-E]

There is still treasure but more people are looking for it so it´s harder work.

When interest rates start rising and bank deposit rates are at 4% or more for parking money at no risk, I wonder how many Lego investors will reassess their options.

[Migration]

I've been selling/flipping in some form since the mid 90's and have seen many "hot" products come and go. Either adapt with the changes or get out. There is no third direction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is only fooling themselves. Be it tulip bulbs, beanie babies, baseball cards, gold/silver, real estate...Lego is no different. 

[chipbee]

LEGO soared right through the aftermath of the financial crisis - If there are changes taking place, I doubt that would be the reason.

Of course, LEGO investors back then were a different breed (much more disciplined, etc).

i am sure in that few months when things look really bad and lehman brothers collapsed, there was a short pause on lego retired set price appreciation, no?

[KShine]

treasure is still everywhere, you need only get your head out of the past and look. 

That just isn't true (at least with LEGO) - There certainly are still deals to be found, but nothing like there once was.

[waddamon]

Unimog was my first risk taking with technical. I have decided I want my investments exposed to the largest possible buyers market, so it is my last technical for investment. Some of the sets are quite nice though and if I can get a really good deal I will buy one of each of the big boys to build someday.

[Val-E]

Perhaps what happened with this set is that people because it was around for 2.5 years and a well received set, the non technic investment crowd got in, taking advantage of every discount possible. Those who got it 40% off were still  able to double their money, which is fine.

Look at 42000 grand prix racer, however, and the story is different. In the US it got a late launch and was available for less than 2 years so the price shot up on EOL as it was quite scarce and probably because some investors missed out (the price has now fallen a little). In Europe you can stil find it easily as we got the full 2 year schedule and it was a typical supermarket / mainstream set hard not to find. They could be had for as much as 60% off so it is no wonder that now it is still struggling to sell even for RRP.

If 42025 cargo plane has retired by Jan 16 then it will be a repeat of grand prix racer, but if it sticks around another year then it will not be a good performer.

[Kenxxx]

...

Overall, the market is absolutely flooded with sellers. ... More than ever, it seems that many of the prices are going nowhere. .. considering changing some of my own rules, others are certainly doing the same. Stagnant prices, more supply, other sellers dumping supply - it isn't good.

I'm a new seller and I hope it's not this dire.  When I was researching the prices, I wasn't so focused on the declines since March, as I was on the run-up that most sets got from December thru March.  I was wondering if that pattern might repeat this year? ... especially now with prices "taking a breather" this summer / fall.  If it were a case of Lego investing just becoming "too popular", and "too many investors", then we'd see these declines across the board for more recent sets, and older sets would be spared (because they were hoarded back in "the good ole days" when the market wasn't so crowded).  Looking at camel3 pricing (which may not be the best indicator... but it's the easiest one I've got) there are 2015 declines in even older sets like 7181 TIE Interceptor, and 7199 Temple of Doom.  And there are winners this year (climbing solidly since EOL) in more recent sets like 9493 X-wing, 75005 Rancor Pit and 75021 Republic Gunship.

My feelings are the Unimog is just suffering from a combination of this general "summer slowdown" and the birth of 42043. For the casual buyer / builder, why would I pay more for the Unimog, when there's this bigger badder better thing that just came out?  The 6211 Imperial Star Destroyer has seen similar weakness since the 75055 came out. Sure the 6211 is bigger, has more pieces, and is a more prized "collector's item", but I can't justify spending $300 + on that, when I can get a 75055 for $110.  Sure, some gearheads are super "into" the Unimog, but a lot of buyers who just want a cool truck with a robot arm... well, they just got a better offer this year.

Edited September 26, 2015 by Kenxxx

[Val-E]

What is revealing is the "everything is awesome in Lego investing land" crowd have gone rather quiet recently. Maybe George W Bush isn´t the only person in the world who can see a tide turn.

Edited September 26, 2015 by valenciaeric

[hannibal]

Yeah, things have been a bit slow this summer period in Europe/UK. Back in 2014 i was looking at some Technic sets in my collection and I was thinking that late 2015 would be a perfect time to sell. Ermm...not really. Despite knowing that Technic appreciates much slower...and still trying to be patient, the hike in price has been disappointing to say the least.
 Whether this is a temporary thing we don't know.... I hope it gets better.

It is true the best days or ...the easiest days to invest in Lego are long gone. One thing I wonder...with all the recent articles on Lego investing things have changed. Now more people are scouting the shelves, buying sets....stashing them away. New sellers appear on ebay every day etc etc. The question is...is Lego becoming more popular between collectors and consumers with the speed we need in order to have this "business" work...