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Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

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14 hours ago, Mark Twain said:Wall Street doesn’t seem to care about this and is acting like a werewolf on cocaine but I’m not betting on real people following.

Yep. That’s because it’s all about money and control.  Not about saving lives.  Kill Main Street so the billionaires can get richer. 

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14 hours ago, enotoga said:

Or, it could be a mistake to bet against humans to succeed in doing what they do best.  Current pent-up demand seems to be off the charts.  From this point forward, we could see a steadily dropping unemployment rate - one weekly catalyst that will continue fueling optimism.  Today's huge unemployment numbers could end up working to the market's advantage, as the weekly numbers improve.  But I'll still be depressed for failing to be more aggressive in March at DOW 18,500.   

stock market right now is like a rollercoaster...we all know where we'll end up at the final stop...but it's the ups and downs that causes heat attacks!

anyway all my prior positions have gone down today (but who knows about tomorrow)...I will wait for another entry point and ride her again 

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How are parts sales on BL / BO for everyone? I saw a significant increase in parts orders for a couple of months there, but that is slowly dropping off - but a LOT of new BL users out there which is awesome. I myself just placed my largest set of orders to complete a number of used sets that I've had time to inventory. A lot of folks seem to have done the same, but I imagine that with reopening beginning this will also take a hit. 

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1 hour ago, Pseudoty said:

It seems to be an issue with the Philadelphia regional center. Things leave my post office get there the same or next day and sit. @jaisonline you seeing this?

Not sure.  I don’t live near Phila. 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

stock market right now is like a rollercoaster...we all know where we'll end up at the final stop...but it's the ups and downs that causes heat attacks!

anyway all my prior positions have gone down today (but who knows about tomorrow)...I will wait for another entry point and ride her again 

I have generally gotten pushback from the ladies about this but best of luck

Edited by Huskers1236
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Posted (edited)
On 5/28/2020 at 12:30 PM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

stock market right now is like a rollercoaster...we all know where we'll end up at the final stop...but it's the ups and downs that causes heat attacks!

anyway all my prior positions have gone down today (but who knows about tomorrow)...I will wait for another entry point and ride her again 

During the crash of 2008 and subsequent recovery starting in 2009, I learned to use options.  Everything I needed to know was in Jim Cramer's book "Getting back to Even", chapters 7 & 8.   Integrating options into my investment strategy completely changed my life - I guess you could say that learning options was the best investment move I ever made.

So, if you have an eye for picking good companies, and if you haven't taken the step into options yet......you have a very pleasant surprise coming.  It's like moving from slots to craps.  Wish I could buy calls on Brick Bank or Assembly Square.

   

Edited by enotoga
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33 minutes ago, enotoga said:

During the crash of 2008 and subsequent recovery starting in 2009, I learned to use options.  Everything I needed to know was in Jim Cramer's book "Getting back to Even", chapters 7 & 8.   Integrating options into my investment strategy completely changed my life - I guess you could say that learning options was the best investment move I ever made.

So, if you have an eye for picking good companies, and if you haven't taken the step into options yet......you have a very pleasant surprise coming.  It's like moving from slots to craps.  Wish I could buy calls on Brick Bank or Assembly Square.

   

I dabbled in options back during the tech bubble and had my a$$ handed to me. I was new and had just passed my series 7, so I had a lot of learning to do.

My buddy swears by options and does well. Good days and bad days but more good than bad. I'm older now and much more risk adverse. While I'd like to play around with options, I don't think I have the stomach for it.

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Same here, had a bad experience. You not only have to predict whether a stock's going down or up, but the exact time range it's gonna do that. I'll pass.

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6 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

 

I know we're all thinking this: Do we know that the empty shelves were from looters...or just the way all LEGO shelves have been lately?

would be really telling if some TLM2 sets were STILL left on shelves...or used to break windows in the store next door

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On 5/29/2020 at 1:38 PM, oneknightr said:

I dabbled in options back during the tech bubble and had my a$$ handed to me. I was new and had just passed my series 7, so I had a lot of learning to do.

My buddy swears by options and does well. Good days and bad days but more good than bad. I'm older now and much more risk adverse. While I'd like to play around with options, I don't think I have the stomach for it.

Stay in the game.  The fact that you even took the first step, separates you from the herd.  Most people can't get their head around the math, and how the time premium factors in - even though it's simple arithmetic.   My most recent purchase cost under $200 for 2 General Electric calls, so it's easy to play with very low stakes.   If you stay in the game, you'll eventually hit a grand slam.  Then you'll have a pattern you can repeat. 

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Posted (edited)

I am observing something: 

1. some new (non-retired) sets emerges of recent scarce sets

2. Resellers hoovering them up almost instantly

3. sky-rocket prices hold

4. Now that end buyers are accustomed to the high prices...can the global resellers "with-hold" new stock to keep prices "artificially high"...and for how long?

Due to the delay and limited LEGO manufacturing limitations; I think a special scenario is playing out where the resellers are able to keep prices high...it will be an interesting struggle leading up to the Christmas season...

Edited by $20 on joe vs dan
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I am observing something: 
1. some new (non-retired) sets emerges of recent scarce sets
2. Resellers hoovering them up almost instantly
3. sky-rocket prices hold
4. Now that end buyers are accustomed to the high prices...can the global resellers "with-hold" new stock to keep prices "artificially high"...and for how long?
Due to the delay and limited LEGO manufacturing limitations; I think a special scenario is playing out where the resellers are able to keep prices high...it will be an interesting struggle leading up to the Christmas season...

All stores have to do is impose strict limits like Walmart does and cut off the artificial buying from resellers. They’re certain to do this soon enough.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:


All stores have to do is impose strict limits like Walmart does and cut off the artificial buying from resellers. They’re certain to do this soon enough.

early signs point to restock being small/slow enough for the hoard to cover...reselling "whales" may not get get to play, but just the active numbers on BPers may be enough to keep amazon (at least) at bay....just an interesting observation of a new dynamic due to Quarantine trends 

Edited by $20 on joe vs dan

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46 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I am observing something: 

1. some new (non-retired) sets emerges of recent scarce sets

2. Resellers hoovering them up almost instantly

3. sky-rocket prices hold

4. Now that end buyers are accustomed to the high prices...can the global resellers "with-hold" new stock to keep prices "artificially high"...and for how long?

Due to the delay and limited LEGO manufacturing limitations; I think a special scenario is playing out where the resellers are able to keep prices high...it will be an interesting struggle leading up to the Christmas season...

I think you overestimate the capacity of individual resellers to act for their collective benefit.  Every reseller would be better off in the long run by never undercutting any other reseller on price, but that never happens. 

What we're seeing play out right now are the same forces of supply and demand that always drive the Lego market .  The only difference is the COVID threw a huge wrench into the gears of the market , increasing demand well beyond the capacity of primary market retailers to manage (at least for non-retired sets), which led to a decrease in supply, which created the opening for secondary market resellers to fill the void.

It's not the resellers that are keeping prices high...it's the lack of supply, but that is already beginning to even out.    

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21 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:


All stores have to do is impose strict limits like Walmart does and cut off the artificial buying from resellers. They’re certain to do this soon enough.

WM's move to impose quantity limits last year is going to really screw up the secondary market in the years to come if it stays in place.  WM was, by far, my largest source of inventory last year even though I routinely had orders cancelled.  I've had to completely retool my sourcing this year.

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11 minutes ago, redcell said:

I think you overestimate the capacity of individual resellers to act for their collective benefit.  Every reseller would be better off in the long run by never undercutting any other reseller on price, but that never happens. 

What we're seeing play out right now are the same forces of supply and demand that always drive the Lego market .  The only difference is the COVID threw a huge wrench into the gears of the market , increasing demand well beyond the capacity of primary market retailers to manage (at least for non-retired sets), which led to a decrease in supply, which created the opening for secondary market resellers to fill the void.

It's not the resellers that are keeping prices high...it's the lack of supply, but that is already beginning to even out.    

good points for sure...but this one may be a bit different.  Whereas I do not doubt the power of greed that provides the predictability of market forces...since the purchase limitations are also limiting the stock of the resellers...they are now holding 1 or 2 of an item whereas before they would have 10 to 20...they may not readily sell for lower...and may be more motivated to hold-out for Christmas.  this phenomenon times the hundreds to thousands of individual reseller may be enough to with-hold stock of key sets (despite restock) and keep prices high.

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I ordered a Slave I on May 3 - it was backordered at the time of placing my order. I got an email later that day that it was officially OOS (but I don't remember if it was listed as OOS or still backordered online - either way it didn't last much longer, I think OOS by May the 4th). I received 3 emails over the next month with revised shipping dates, and today it shipped. Its still OOS online, but I'll be interested in seeing if it comes back in the next week or so now that they are shipping some of the last "backordered" sets. 

Mustang is another interesting one. I ordered one in early June to get the Hot Rod - it was backordered at the time, but I received mine a couple of days ago and its been readily available online for probably a week at least. It has bounced in and out of "backordered" status a couple of times in the past month total I believe, but it always comes back. New sources matching demand, or is the factory reopening in Mexico keeping it in stock? With the Tree House back today (and lasting longer than I thought), I think the rest of June and July will be interesting, and my guess is that we will see more and more stock available this summer before another shortage going into the Holiday season. 

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I'm jealous of the amount of data you guys have to use for trending.  It's just me and my crystal ball over here.

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1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

early signs point to restock being small/slow enough for the hoard to cover...reselling "whales" may not get get to play, but just the active numbers on BPers may be enough to keep amazon (at least) at bay....just an interesting observation of a new dynamic due to Quarantine trends 

I think a massive restock is incoming around August/September. Enough supply to eliminate quick depletions. So far, all the sets flowing into the US have been Euro imports. Its just a matter of time before the Mexico sets hits the shelves. Once that supply enters the market, MSRP panic buying will slow among resellers. I predict high supply levels, of all sets,  as long as another shutdown does not happen.  

 

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3 minutes ago, dennugsmello said:

I think a massive restock is incoming around August/September. Enough supply to eliminate quick depletions. So far, all the sets flowing into the US have been Euro imports. Its just a matter of time before the Mexico sets hits the shelves. Once that supply enters the market, MSRP panic buying will slow among resellers. I predict high supply levels, of all sets,  as long as another shutdown does not happen.  

 

I found it interesting to just go through all the regions in Lego.com and see what was in stock and readily available for some of the bigger markets.  In some, you can order Haunted House and Pirates of Barracuda Bay right now, so if things can be shifted from European markets so easily and we get a trickle of the inventory, is there really anything stopping the influx of other sets from other parts of the world?  At the end of the day, LEGO wants to sell every set - it doesn't necessarily care who it goes to, as long as it can cover the cost of logistics getting them to the right buyer.  

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